One Decision

#OpenAI #AI #ArtificialIntelligence Thank you to Incogni for sponsoring. Get 60% off the annual plan with code onedecision at https://incogni.com/onedecision OpenAI says it will burn $280 billion by 2030. Sebastian Mallaby gives it a 50/50 chance of running out of money by next summer. So what happens when the world's most prominent AI lab goes bust — and does the US government step in? Sebastian Mallaby — Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Infinity Machine, a biography of DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis — joins Sir Richard Dearlove and John Raine. They discuss the financial fragility of the leading AI labs, why open-weight AI models are too dangerous to permit, how a US-China non-proliferation deal for AI might work, and what a war game about nuclear submarines revealed about where this is all heading. In this episode: (00:00) AI Race Between US and China (02:08) Sebastian Mallaby on AI Safety (02:51) Is AI a Blessing or Curse? (04:03) Who to Trust on AI Safety (05:35) Demis Hassabis and AI Regulation (08:23) Cold War Lessons for AI Safety (11:42) Trump Administration AI Policy (14:59) Private AI Safety Monitoring (20:57) Open Weight AI Models Debate (23:00) Does AI Replicate Consciousness? (33:24) Is AI Investment a Bubble? (45:39) AI War Game Nuclear Submarine Scenario (54:37) The One Decision Open Weight AI Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

#Germany #Japan #Rearmament Thank you to Incogni for sponsoring. Get 60% off the annual plan with code onedecision at https://incogni.com/onedecision For more than half a century, the two main Axis powers of WWII lived under strict limits on their militaries. Now both are rearming fast — driven by the threat of Russia in Europe and China in the Pacific, and by growing doubts about whether the US under Trump can still be relied upon. Germany is pouring money into defense and rebuilding its arms industry. Japan has created a new intelligence service, is expanding its Self-Defense Forces, and is debating whether to revise Article 9 of its pacifist constitution. Historian and journalist Ian Buruma — author of Stay Alive: Berlin 1939–1945 — joins former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove and journalist Kate McCann to explain how wartime guilt shaped both countries' foreign and defense policy for generations, and why that influence is now fading fast. Thank you to Incogni for sponsoring. Get 60% off the annual plan with code onedecision at https://incogni.com/onedecision In this episode: (00:00) Intro (04:22) Sir Richard on ex-BND chief August Hanning (08:47) How Germany and Japan responded to WWII (13:11) Japan’s younger generation and Article 9 (22:11) Should Germany help fund Europe’s nuclear umbrella? (23:50) Could Japan go nuclear? (26:54) What is Article 9? (28:48) Japan’s new intelligence service and arms industry (32:55) The AfD, the firewall and German rearmament (36:34) A populist Europe and the end of Pax Americana (41:29) How the AfD weaponizes German history (45:06) The one decision to watch Join Sir Richard Dearlove and his co-hosts as they engage with leading figures in geopolitics, intelligence, and global affairs. They dissect the critical decisions behind the headlines, offering deep insights and expert analysis of the strategies that define international relations. From uncovering the implications of major geopolitical events to decoding the tactics of world leaders, One Decision is your gateway to understanding the complexities of global dynamics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

War with Iran, record diesel prices, and a global bond sell-off: how much more can the world economy take? Mohamed El-Erian (Wharton, Allianz, former CEO of PIMCO) joins Sir Richard Dearlove (former head of MI6) and John Raine to explain what's driving the bond market sell-off, why the US is exporting instability to the UK, France, and Japan, and why AI is "80% asset, 20% liability." Plus: how PIMCO really navigated Lehman's collapse, and the one decision he's watching. In this episode: (00:00) Intro (03:07) Why this crisis is different (04:04) Permacrisis and "minilateralism" (05:46) What's driving the global bond sell-off (07:32) The hit to US households: mortgages, car loans, the K-shaped economy (10:10) "Our yields, your problem": UK, France and Japan (13:05) France, Mélenchon and Europe's leadership vacuum (17:59) AI: 80% asset, 20% liability (20:35) US-China AI Race (31:30) Did PIMCO predict Lehman Brothers collapse? (35:58) Who wins in today’s economy? (44:51) Can finance ministers fix what politicians can't? (46:32) How important are AI companies to the economy? Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Between cheap-to-produce drones and artificial intelligence, the future of warfare may already be here. Paul Scharre, former US Army Ranger and executive vice president of the Center for a New American Strategy, joins former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host John Raine to discuss how drones and AI are reshaping military conflict and militaries themselves. Scharre explains why cheap drones are beating expensive armies, how the cost asymmetry between offense and defense is reshaping the battlefield, and why the US may be losing its technological edge faster than it realizes. He also assesses Ukraine's drone revolution, the race between the US and China to adopt military AI, and why keeping humans in the loop may matter more than any weapon system. In this episode: (00:00) Cost Equation of Modern Warfare (02:39) Defining the Present State of Warfare (04:18) How Militaries Are Dealing with AI (06:24) Technology Reshaping US Military Education (09:11) Evolution of Drone Technology (14:45) Cost of Countermeasures (18:06) Likelihood of Protracted Warfare (20:38) Redefining Victory in Modern Warfare (22:20) Adversarial Distillation (25:15) Strategic Balance Between US and China (27:32) Culture of Superior Firepower (29:55) AI and the Ukraine War (33:06) How Drones Change Ground Combat (39:28) Outlook For Expensive Tech (43:00) Keeping Humans in the Loop (44:44) Drone Swarms (46:55) AI and Naval Warfare (48:52) Drones and Non-State Actors (54:32) One Decision: Xi-Trump Summit and AI (56:36) Takeaways and Wrap Up Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Israel and the US may have extraordinary intelligence on Iran. But intelligence isn't the same as comprehension, according to nuclear physicist and 2015 Iran deal negotiator Ali Vaez. Vaez joins John Raine and Sir Richard Dearlove to break down what Iran's nuclear capabilities really look like after the 12-day war. Plus, how Iran's Supreme National Security Council stays united under duress, how the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains primacy over the regular army, and why sanctions now at "nine out of ten" still won't force collapse. Iran doesn't need to win this standoff. It just needs not to lose. In this episode: (00:00) Ali Vaez on wartime Iran (02:39) Is Iran's leadership a monolith or divided? (03:55) Power centers: the SNSC, the Basij, and the IRGC (10:09) The mystery of Mojtaba Khamenei (12:00) Economic and military pressure on Iran (15:00) A forever war? Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis (27:47) What does the Iranian public actually think? (32:33) Iran's nuclear program: what do we really know? (42:18) Israeli intelligence, diplomacy, and the Ahmadinejad theory (52:19) The decision only Donald Trump can make Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices