Option Trades Today

Bloom Energy has gone from $55 to $280 in a year on the AI infrastructure story. It's down today with an IV rank of 72 and monthly implied volatility over 120%. That means the options market is pricing in a stock that can double or go to zero inside of a year. The trade is a 1x2 put spread: buy the 165 put, sell two 150 puts in July, for a $1.50 credit. POP sits at 95% and the break-even is around $135.

Nine days of gains. Then this. All four indices are in the red and Microsoft is lagging on top of that down today without having participated much in the rally either.   That setup is exactly what this trade looks for. IV rank on MSFT is at 58, which is high for this name. The trade: buy the 405 put, sell two 395 puts in the July cycle with 44 days to go. That gets filled for a $3.30 credit, an 82% probability of profit, and a break-even at $382, a level that would represent all-time lows on the chart. Max profit sits at $1,340 on $5,600 of buying power. The real goal is a couple hundred dollars in the next week or two.

ServiceNow is down almost while the market sits at all-time highs. That kind of divergence is exactly what options traders look for. The trade: buy one 110 put, sell three 100 puts for a net credit of $190. That structure gives you a break-even near $95, right where the stock was trading just a few weeks ago. Probability of profit sits at 86% and theta decay runs at $10 a day. The only catch is buying power this one uses about $7,600. But buying a 75 put as a wing brings that down under $3,000 with almost no impact on the credit or the probability.

Apple is down nearly 2% today and IV rank is climbing toward 40. That combination is exactly what you look for before selling a strangle. The trade: sell the 280 put and the 335 call in the July cycle with 46 days to expiration, both at one standard deviation. The credit collected is over $400, theta decay runs at $13.50 a day, and the break-even on the downside sits near a level Apple has not traded at since its late May gap up. Both strikes are outside the expected move and the upside has never even been tested.

Gold and Apple have almost the same correlation to the stock market. Apple is at all-time highs. Gold is sitting at $415 doing nothing. Tony Battista thinks gold is about to catch a bid. The trade structure turns that thesis into a bullish put ratio spread with an 87% probability of profit and a break even below a one standard deviation move. Anywhere above that break even, the trade wins. If gold dips slightly into the sweet spot between the two strikes, it wins bigger. And if it keeps doing nothing, Jamal still collects the credit. One of the cleanest asymmetric setups on the show this week.