Pakistonomy

Uzair talks to Pranay Kotasthane about the growing tensions in U.S.–India economic relations and the difficult road ahead for deeper trade integration. We discuss what went wrong in the bilateral relationship after the high-profile Trump Modi summit, the domestic political constraints that make agricultural and dairy sector reforms difficult in India, and why India’s reliance on fiscal incentives like PLI may not be the silver bullet for manufacturing growth. We also explore whether India’s decision to stay out of RCEP was a strategic misstep, and what it would take for the country to meaningfully integrate into global supply chains. Finally, we reflect on the broader trajectory of the U.S.–India partnership and what both sides need to do to steady the course. Pranay Kotasthane is deputy director of the Takshashila Institution, where he chairs the High Tech Geopolitics Programme. He co writes Anticipating the Unintended, a newsletter on public policy, and co hosts Puliyabaazi, a popular Hindi Urdu podcast on politics, policy, and technology. You can read Pranay’s newsletter here - https://publicpolicy.substack.com/p/315-beyond-the-hype Reading Recommendations 1. Deborah A. Stone — Policy Paradox: The Art of Political Decision Making 2. Rutger Bregman — Humankind: A Hopeful Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:45 State of US-India relations 14:30 India’s Evolving foreign policy 24:10 Supporting Indian businesses 31:40 Agriculture reforms and protectionism 39:00 RCEP and its impact 48:40 Reading recommendations

Uzair talks to Dr. Irfan Nooruddin about the growing volatility in U.S.–India relations under President Trump. We discuss the impact of the 25% tariff imposed on Indian goods, the administration’s criticism of India’s oil trade with Russia, and the challenges around H-1B visas and illegal immigration. We also talk about the political constraints facing Prime Minister Modi in Delhi and what all this means for the future of the bilateral relationship. Dr. Irfan Nooruddin is the Hamad bin Khalifa Professor of Indian Politics at Georgetown University. He is the author of The Everyday Crusade, Elections in Hard Times, and Coalition Politics and Economic Development. His work focuses on democratization, international political economy, and policymaking in the Global South. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 State of play in the relationship 8:30 MAGA’s view of India 23:15 Indian right wing’s bet on Trump 2.0 30:50 What can India do to make a deal with Trump? 42:40 Impact of Operation Sindoor on US-India ties

Uzair talks to Dr. Neda Bolourchi about the recent Israel-Iran-US conflict and its key takeaways. We also talked about whether the Iranian government is secure, the chances of diplomacy working, and Iran’s future role in the Middle East. Dr. Neda Bolourchi is an interdisciplinary Middle East scholar and Associate Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Rutgers-New Brunswick. Her work includes international and comparative human rights legal analysis and foreign policy studies. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 3:00 Key takeaways 16:50 Is the Iranian regime secure? 24:45 Understand regime politics 31:05 Iran’s future in the Middle East 38:15 Reading recommendations Book Recommendations: - Total Defense: The New Deal and the Invention of National Security by Andrew Preston - Opera as Drama by Joseph Kerman - Boom Town: The Fantastical Saga of Oklahoma City, Its Chaotic Founding... Its Purloined Basketball Team, and the Dream of Becoming a World-class Metropolis by Sam Anderson

In this episode, Uzair talks to Khurram Husain about the 2025 budget and what the government got wrong. We also talked about Pakistan’s ability to extract geopolitical rents and how this stunts the reform agenda in the country. You can read Khurram’s latest column on the budget here - https://www.dawn.com/news/1916673/thrashing-around Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:45 Budget assessment 11:10 Solar power access 20:20 Geopolitical rents and Pakistan 38:40 Conclusion

Uzair talks to Dr. Kamran Bokhari about what the Trump Administration and his MAGA movement wants to achieve in the foreign policy and geopolitical realms. This is an area where there is still a lot of misconceptions about what Trump wants and the goals of his movement. Dr. Bokhari breaks down his assessment of the White House’s goals from Europe and the Middle East to China. Finally, Dr. Bokhari also shares what he has picked up from the conversation in Washington about the recent India-Pakistan war. Dr. Kamran Bokhari is the Senior Director of the Eurasian Security and Prosperity portfolio at the New Lines Institute. He served as Director of the Analytical Development Department from 2019 to 2023. Dr. Bokhari is also a national security and foreign policy specialist at the University of Ottawa’s Professional Development Institute. Some of the recent pieces of analyses he has written are worth a read: - https://geopoliticalfutures.com/what-the-latest-india-pakistan-conflict-means-for-the-us/ - https://geopoliticalfutures.com/pakistans-crucial-role-in-chinas-military-strategy/ - https://geopoliticalfutures.com/postwar-security-in-gaza/ - https://geopoliticalfutures.com/a-new-reality-in-the-india-pakistan-conflict/ Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:20 What does Trump want? 10:30 Evolving situation in Europe 20:18 Russia-China nexus 26:50 Israel, Iran, and the Middle East 43:30 Dealing with a rising China 54:40 Washington’s view on India-Pak War

Uzair talks to Dr. Sahar Khan about her key takeaways from the recent India-Pakistan war and why this conflict was an inflection point. We also talked about the role of international diplomacy, particularly the United States. Finally, the conversation also looked at what could happen in the next crisis, and the ways in which better engagement could avert total disaster. Dr. Sahar Khan is an independent analyst and an expert on South Asian regional dynamics and strategic stability. She is based in Washington, DC. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:50 Key takeaways from the war 27:50 Role of diplomacy and the US 37:30 What happens in the next crisis? 51:45 Reading recommendations You can access Dr. Khan’s recent commentary here: - https://inkstickmedia.com/the-myths-that-keep-india-and-pakistan-at-war/ - https://theworld.org/segments/2025/05/22/surge-in-popularity-for-pakistani-military - https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3310688/rapid-escalation-india-pakistan-clashes-warning-new-tech-dangers

Uzair talks to Colonel Ajai Shukla (retired) about the fallout of the Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir. We spoke about the state of the insurgency in the region, how their tactics and strategies are evolving, and what can be done to improve security. In addition, we also touched on the prospects of a India-Pakistan war and potential off ramps that could be available for either side to take. Colonel Ajai Shukla (Retired) is a columnist and freelance journalist. He writes on strategic affairs, defence policy, military technology and the defence economy. He has written extensively for Business Standard, a pan-India daily; and for The New York Times, Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera and South China Morning Post. He hosts a defence affairs blog, Broadsword (ajaishukla.com), which is visited daily by over 5,000 readers from across the world. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:00 Normalcy in Kashmir 6:00 Evolution of tactics 11:40 Intelligence failures and counterinsurgency 19:20 Evidence about links to Pakistan 25:30 India-Pakistan tensions 31:10 General Munir’s strategy 35:10 Conclusion

Uzair talks to Dr. Hassan Abbas about the ongoing standoff between India and Pakistan following the recent terror attack in Kashmir. We talked about what options are on the table for both sides, the role of the United States, and why engagement and negotiations are the only path forward for both countries. Dr. Hassan Abbas is Distinguished Professor of International Relations at the Near East South Asia Strategic Studies Centre (NESA), National Defense University in Washington DC. He serves as a senior advisor at Project on Shi’ism and Global Affairs at Harvard University’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, and his current research work focuses on building narratives for countering political and religious extremism & rule of law reforms in developing states. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:30 Backdrop of the terror attack 14:20 Allegations and evidence 18:50 Narratives and media 25:10 Commitment traps 29:40 US response so far 36:30 Misreading the other side

Uzair talks to Muhammad Faisal about the fallout from the recent terror attack in Kashmir and the options both India and Pakistan have moving forward. We talk about the nuclear stability risks in the region as well as potential off-ramps that can help deescalate the situation. Muhammad Faisal is a Research Fellow at the University of Technology in Sydney and an expert in strategic stability and India-Pakistan relations. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:30 What led to this crisis? 15:40 Options for both sides 33:30 Off ramps and deescalation

In this episode, Uzair talks to Adil Husain about his perspective on how AI is going to disrupt the labor market and create new opportunities for young talent in markets like Pakistan. Adil is an entrepreneur and strategist based in Washington. You can read his full piece here - https://adilhusain.substack.com/p/the-real-ai-threat-is-a-27-year-old If you want to get in touch with Adil, message him on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/adilhusain

In this episode, Uzair talk to Abdul Moiz Jaferii about the frivolous cases against journalist Farhan Mallick, who was arrested during Ramzan and given bail after Eid. We discussed the ways in which a process was used to deliver punishment against him, and how the state of Pakistan is moving towards criminalizing thought in the country. Abdul Moiz Jaferii was part of the legal team that is continuing to represent Mr. Mallick in his ongoing cases.

Uzair talks to Zahid Husain about the worsening security situation in Balochistan, which has led the army chief to assert that Pakistan must become a “hard state.” We discussed what can be defined as a hard state, and also try to understand the reasons for why Zahid Husain calls Pakistan a “predator state.” Zahid Husain is an author and journalist who writes a weekly column for Dawn. You can read his latest column titled “A Predator State” here: https://www.dawn.com/news/1900408 Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:40 What is a predator state? 15:10 The state’s colonial mindset 24:10 Difference in KPK and Balochistan 33:50 Anti-military sentiment in Punjab 38:10 Evolving views on military intervention

Uzair talks to Adil Mansoor about the state of Pakistan’s agriculture sector and the outlook for the year. We focused on the wheat and sugar markets, whether deregulation is here to stay, and the ways in which farmers have dealt with collapsing wheat prices. Adil Mansoor is an agriculture analyst and writes for Business Recorder Research. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:40 Water shortages 4:10 Wheat outlook 18:00 Food inflation coming back? 24:20 Sugar prices 36:50 Storage and supply chain issues 42:00 Market reforms

Uzair talks to Arifa Noor about the mood in Islamabad after the Jaffer Express terror attack in Balochistan. We discussed the failures of Pakistan’s Balochistan policy, why political elites have continued to cede space to the military on key topics, and the decline in parliament’s standing over the years. Arifa Noor is a journalist at Dawn and host of the TV show Newswise. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:50 Jaffer Express fallout 13:10 PPP pushes back against canal projects 23:10 PTI and an opposition alliance 31:30 Media blackouts and conspiracy theories

This episode focuses on the ongoing and worsening crisis in Balochistan, where militancy is rising and the political process shows no signs of improving. Rafiullah Kakar joins Uzair to explain what is going on in the province, the root causes of the insurgency, and why a number of political problems have added fuel to the burning fire in Balochistan. Finally, Rafiullah also discusses his research on the structural and constitutional drivers of the core political economy issues in the province, with the conversation concluding on what can be done to alleviate the crisis in Balochistan. Rafiullah Kakar is a policy analyst currently pursuing a PhD at Cambridge University, where he is seeking to understand the political economy of sub-national state capacity through a comparative study of education policy in two Pakistani provinces: Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. You can read Rafiullah Kakar’s paper that was discussed on the podcast here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14662043.2024.2382458 Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:50 Worsening militancy in Balochistan 17:10 Engaging with young political leaders 25:50 India’s role in the insurgency 32:20 Is the status quo secure? 36:10 Structural drivers of the issues 47:20 Devolution of power 56:00 Competition in politics

This episode focuses on the latest developments in Pakistan’s startup and innovation ecosystem Uzair talks to Sarah Munir about the latest findings from invest2innovate’s 2024 Startup Ecosystem Report. Sarah is CEO at invest2innovate and has over 15 years of experience in driving impact and fueling growth. invest2innovate supports startup communities in growth markets and has been working in Pakistan since 2011. You can read the full report here - https://invest2innovate.com/ecosystem-reports/ Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 3:50 Key findings and learnings 11:30 Learnings for young entrepreneurs 14:30 Learning for investors 17:20 Policy and regulatory issues 23:10 Cultural shifts around entrepreneurship 27:10 Critical thinking and innovation 30:00 Opportunities for growth 33:30 Going beyond maturity 37:08 Reading recommendations Reading Recommendations: - Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking by Susan Cain - Shoe Dog: A Memoir by the Creator of Nike by Phil Knight - Alibaba: The House That Jack Ma Built by Duncan Clark - Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones by James Clear

In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Qamar Cheema about Pakistan’s foreign policy priorities, including relations with Afghanistan and the United States. We also talked about whether Donald Trump will intervene in Pakistan’s affairs to help release Imran Khan. Dr. Qamar Cheema is Executive Director of the Sanober Institute, a think tank based in Islamabad. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:00 Afghanistan relations 18:20 Trump releasing Khan? 26:10 Pakistan-Iran relations 31:05 Erdogan’s trip to Pakistan 37:20 Chinese disappointment

In this episode, Uzair talks to Khurram Husain about the PML-N government’s economic performance over the last year. We talked about how IMF stabilization is the easy part, why generating growth risks creating the same problems for the country, and the ways in which business interest groups are advocating for a return to past policies. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 Performance review 8:10 Reasons for lack of reforms 20:30 Stabilization a big achievement? 29:40 SBP’s role in killing inflation

In this episode, Uzair talks to Amir Husain about DeepSeek’s innovations in the world of artificial intelligence, which has been described as a “Sputnik Moment” by many in the technology world. We also talked about how DeepSeek achieved these innovations and what they tell us about China’s innovation ecosystem. Finally, Amir shares his view on export controls on cutting-edge technology and whether it helps achieve U.S. national security goals. Amir Husain is a serial entrepreneur, veteran AI technologist, and author based in Austin, Texas. He has received widespread acclaim for his pioneering work, including Austin’s Top Entrepreneur award and inclusion in Austin’s 40 Under 40. In 2013, Amir founded SparkCognition, now Avathon. Under Amir’s leadership, the company achieved a unicorn valuation, marking a significant milestone in its journey. As the Founder and Executive Board Member of this award-winning AI company, Amir led the firm as CEO from its inception until the end of 2023. Amir has been awarded over 30 patents in AI and distributed systems. He serves on UT Austin’s Computer Science Board, NATO’s Innovation Advisory Board and the Board of Global Venture Bridge, fostering international entrepreneurial collaboration. He is the author of the best-selling book “The Sentient Machine,” a co-author of “Hyperwar: Conflict and Competition in the AI Century”, and has recently published “Generative Art”, “Generative AI for Leaders” and “Serious Machines.” Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:10 What did DeepSeek achieve? 19:20 US-China Chip Wars and Export Controls 33:10 Sputnik Moment and Choices for America

In this episode, Uzair talks to Ankur Bhardwaj about India’s economic slowdown and its root causes. We also talked about what options the government has to stimulate growth through the budget, and the reasons why the Indian Rupee has been weakening in recent weeks. Finally, we touched on major structural reforms that are needed in India and whether the Modi-led BJP government can push them through. Ankur Bhardwaj is Web Editor at Business Standard. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 Slowing growth in India 10:10 Navigating the budget cycle 14:50 Reform priorities 19:20 Promoting exports 23:30 Navigating the politics of reforms 26:50 Risks in the near-term