Playbook Deep Dive

Top election forecasters Lakshya Jain (Split Ticket) and Logan Phillips (Race to the White House) join Playbook co-author Eugene Daniels to give their key insights and predictions for Tuesday. They discuss how to analyze early voting returns, who the remaining swing voters are, and why polls are more useful than most people give them credit for. Stay until the end, where they each share what one race that will be called early on Election Night that will signal to them who the next president is going to be. Eugene Daniels is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. Lakshya Jain is CEO and co-founder of Split Ticket. Logan Phillips is founder of Race to the White House. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio.  Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Election Day is less than two weeks away. And Donald Trump has been employing an innovative strategy to keep Democrats’ — and an increasingly large number of Republicans’ — doubts about his fitness for office at bay. The former president has been burnishing his image on a nontraditional media spread of podcasts, golf outings, and shifts working at McDonald's.  To understand Trump’s own thinking about the campaign, including the risks of this unorthodox strategy and the most recent indictments of his character, Playbook co-author Rachael Bade sat down with one of his most trusted advisers: Jason Miller. Miller and Trump have a long history together. He’s worked on each of Trump’s campaigns since 2016, in roles ranging from comms guru to senior strategist, and he isn’t afraid to elaborate on the campaign’s strategy or defend Trump’s most controversial comments. Rachael Bade is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. Jason Miller is a senior adviser to President Donald Trump. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio.  Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trump, Harris, and the vast network of campaigns, Super PACs, and down ballot candidates operating alongside them are now on pace to spend $1 billion before election day in Pennsylvania. For the time being, it is the center of the political universe. On this episode of Deep Dive, Playbook co-author Eugene Daniels is joined by two local experts on the race: Philadelphia City Councilmember Isaiah Thomas, who is the Chair of Black Men for Harris Pennsylvania; and Charlie Gerow, a Trump surrogate, Republican consultant in Harrisburg, and former candidate for governor. Eugene Daniels is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. Isaiah Thomas is a Philadelphia City Councilmember At-Large and Majority Whip. Charlie Gerow is the CEO of Quantum Communications and a Republican consultant. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio.  Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The 2024 election. It’s a contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. But increasingly, it also looks like it’s girls versus boys.  Playbook’s Rachael Bade caught up with Sarah Longwell, Executive Director of Republican Voters Against Trump, Publisher of The Bulwark, and Host of "The Focus Group" Podcast, to learn what is driving a record-setting gender gap this election cycle. Longwell has conducted hundreds of focus groups and knows intimately how voters, in their own words, are processing Harris and Trump’s candidacies, and what issues and ideas will determine who they vote for. Rachael Bade is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. Sarah Longwell is the CEO of Longwell Partners, Publisher of The Bulwark, and host of "The Focus Group" podcast Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio.  Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Joining Playbook’s Eugene Daniels on this episode of Deep Dive are two pollsters who know how to find the signal in what has been a very noisy election. John Anzalone aka “Anzo,” was Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama’s pollster. And Greg Strimple is a veteran of John McCain, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, and John Cornyn’s campaigns. Together, they dissect why this election’s polling is so close despite all the crazy news; who the swing voters are that both Trump and Harris are spending millions of dollars to reach; and if ticket-splitting is about to have a resurgence.  Eugene Daniels is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. John Anzalone is the founder of Impact Research. Greg Strimple is the founder and president of GS Strategy Group. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio.  Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

James Carville is one of the oldest and best known political strategists in America. He also is the subject of a new CNN documentary called “Winning is Everything, Stupid.” On this episode of Deep Dive, Carville talks with host Ryan Lizza about his outlook on the election, including why he’s not so sure that it’ll be a close race once the votes are counted; what he thinks Kamala Harris could learn from Trump’s huckster style; and why Carville has absolutely no remorse for voicing his complaint that the Democratic Party’s culture was dominated by what he calls “preachy females.” Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. James Carville is a Democratic political strategist. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio.  Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brian Fallon, senior communications adviser for Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign, joins Playbook’s Eugene Daniels to discuss the inner workings of the vice president’s campaign, including why her positions on the issues have shifted since 2019, when she’ll start opening up to the press and how her view of Trump differs from Biden’s. Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. Brian Fallon is senior communications adviser for Harris for America. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio.  Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike Murphy, the storied GOP strategist and co-host of the popular “Hacks On Tap” podcast, joins Deep Dive host and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza to discuss Tuesday’s debate and why some very strong winds are still at Trump’s back; how Murphy would tweak Kamala Harris’s message; what might become of the Republican party after Trump and how he, Mike Murphy, almost killed JD Vance’s dream of being a senator back in 2017. Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. Mike Murphy is a Republican consultant and co-host of "Hacks On Tap." Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio.  Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Everyone knows the Latino vote will be decisive in this presidential election year. But our guest today says most of what you know about Latino voters and how to win them over is wrong.  Mike Madrid is a third-generation Mexican-American and one of the country’s leading political strategists when it comes to Latino voters. He was a senior operative for the California Republican Party who rubbed shoulders with the likes of George W. Bush and his generation of GOP officials. Madrid later got jaded by Trump and co-founded the Lincoln Project.  In his new book, “The Latino Century”, Madrid lays out a breadcrumb trail for both Republicans and Democrats to win this decisive block of voters, who he believes are very much up for grabs this year. He shares his findings with host & Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza as well as the reason why both parties are doing something right to win them — and something wrong.  Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. Mike Madrid is a Latino GOP political consultant and author of "The Latino Century." Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio.  Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A special bonus episode from Deep Dive's POLITICO sister podcast, Power Play: With the U.S. presidential debate now confirmed, our Power Play guests explain the tips and tricks that could help Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win their first head-to-head encounter on Sept. 10 — and why there has been a pre-debate row over format and mics. POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy is joined by Brett O’Donnell, a veteran expert on preparing candidates for debate on both sides of the pond, having coached Republicans Ron DeSantis, Mitt Romney, John McCain and George W. Bush, as well as prepping Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson for their televised tussles in the U.K. Then POLITICO’s Rachael Bade, co-author of our Playbook in Washington, reveals which way the political winds are blowing, following last week’s momentous Democratic National Convention and how the rival Trump-Harris campaigns are preparing for the forthcoming debate. Find more of POLITICO’s Power Play podcast here. Playbook Deep Dive, hosted by Ryan Lizza, will return next week. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Democratic kingmaker Nancy Pelosi has come to be pegged as the chief force behind President Joe Biden’s decision to step down from his reelection campaign — a claim that she refuses to dignify much.  While Pelosi no longer wields the Speaker’s gavel, its absence hasn’t done much to stifle her power within the party. She’s not only the first female Speaker of the House, but also one of the most talented political tacticians of her generation.  POLITICO’s senior political columnist and politics bureau chief Jonathan Martin sat down with the Speaker Emerita at the CNN-POLITICO Grill on the last day of the Democratic National Convention.  JMart and Pelosi covered what state Pelosi believes to be key to retaking the House; how a President Kamala Harris would need to govern; that time when party transcended heritage in her snub of a New York Republican; her relationship with successor Hakeem Jeffries and what she really thinks of that DIY pin of her image that floated around the convention. Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Jonathan Martin is politics bureau chief for POLITICO.Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker Emerita of the U.S. House of Representatives. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders joins Playbook co-author and Deep Dive host Ryan Lizza to give his candid thoughts on Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, including whether he thinks Joe Biden should have stepped aside in the first place; how Democrats can win back young people, minorities, and progressives; as well as where he agrees with Harris’s policies, and where he thinks she needs to lean in his direction to win. Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Bernie Sanders is the senior senator from Vermont.Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With the Democratic National Convention just days away, Doug Sosnik, a longtime Dem strategist best known for being a top adviser to Bill Clinton, joins the show to help unpack the new fundamentals of the 2024 presidential campaign.   Sosnik and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza discuss: Why the gender gap is getting larger — and how it could impact the election in ways that have not yet been fully appreciated; why JD Vance might influence the election more than Tim Walz; two metrics can tell you the most about the state-of-the-race; why Omaha, Nebraska might be the most important place in this presidential election; and why Sosnik thinks Kamala Harris has the potential to be like Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Doug Sosnik is a Democratic political strategist.Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Anita Dunn left her position as a senior advisor to president Joe Biden this week, marking the end of an era for the White House. She was a key architect of his 2020 presidential campaign and one of his closest advisors throughout her tenure.  On this episode of Deep Dive, Dunn joins host and Playbook co-author Ryan LIzza to talk about the extraordinary series of events that lead to Biden dropping out of the presidential race, including: the pivotal decision to call for a June debate with Trump; what Dunn was thinking as she watched Biden struggle through the event; the strategy she and her colleagues developed to fight the calls for Biden to step aside; Biden’s final days as the nominee; the new electoral opportunities now available to Harris and a lot more.  Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Anita Dunn is a former adviser in the Biden Administration.Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and the Democratic party rallied around Kamala Harris as his replacement, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper was widely considered to be a top choice to serve as Harris’s running mate. But Cooper did something unusual: he told the Harris team he didn’t want to be considered as her running mate. On this episode of Deep Dive, host and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza talks to Cooper about why he took himself out of contention and how some weird local politics influenced his decision.  Also discussed in this episode of the show: Cooper’s conversations with Harris, Biden, and Nancy Pelosi as Democratic leaders navigated the post-debate crisis that lead to Harris’s ascension; how Cooper coached the president in the last days of Biden’s campaign; and whether or not you should believe the hype about Democrats flipping North Carolina this year. Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Roy Cooper is the governor of North Carolina.Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Playbook co-author Eugene Daniels and POLITICO politics bureau chief Jonathan Martin join host Ryan Lizza to tackle questions about Vice President Kamala Harris’s new role at the top of the Democratic ticket, including: What really caused Joe Biden to end his quest for a second term? How did Kamala Harris lock up the nomination so fast? And what is really going on inside her campaign right now? How have the issues, swing states, and demographics that will decide the 2024 election changed? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the Democrats vying to serve as vice president? And how is Donald Trump responding to all of this? Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Eugene Daniels is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Jonathan Martin is politics bureau chief for POLITICO.Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Congressman Richard Hudson is chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee, which is to say, he’s in charge of delivering a majority in November for Speaker Mike Johnson and possibly President Donald Trump. In this episode of Playbook Deep Dive, Hudson discusses how the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the possibility of Joe Biden leaving the Democratic ticket are influencing his strategy for House Republicans this November. Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Richard Hudson is the representative for North Carolina's 9th district and chairman of the NRCC.Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp joins for a bonus episode of Playbook Deep Dive.  In a live interview from the Republican National Convention, Kemp — a swing state governor with a famously conflicted relationship with Trump — opines on how Saturday’s assassination attempt will change both Trump and Biden’s election strategy; his thoughts on J.D. Vance, Trump's running mate; what his advice to Trump is for his convention speech and everything after; and whether or not he is courting a position in Trump’s cabinet. Eugene Daniels is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Brian Kemp is the governor of Georgia. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Elaine Kamarck is a longtime member of the DNC’s rules committee, a scholar at Brookings, a former advisor to top Democrats such as Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and Walter Mondale; and author of “Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates.” On this episode of Playbook Deep Dive, Playbook co-author Eugene Daniels asks Kamarck all of your questions about how the Democratic Party would choose a new nominee should Joe Biden step aside.  Topics include: How and when Joe Biden would go about dropping out; if his delegates can rebel against him if he doesn’t; whether or not he can choose a successor; how exactly an open convention would unfold in Chicago; and what she thinks the public’s reaction will be if the Democratic nominee for president is chosen by a handful of party insiders in smoke-filled back rooms. Eugene Daniels is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Elaine Kamarck is a scholar at The Brookings Institution.Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Utah Governor Spencer Cox is a longtime Trump critic who is known nationally for his work to depolarize American politics.  This week, Cox easily defeated a far-right opponent in the Republican primary. So too did a slate of other Utah Republicans. While national Republicans continue to move in Trump’s direction, in Utah, the Romney faction of the GOP is still holding its own. On this episode of Deep Dive, Cox joins host and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza to discuss Utah politics, as well as Cox’s disagreements with Trump; how he’s preparing to be cast as MAGA’s next boogeyman; what he thinks Trump’s other Republican critics, such as Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, get wrong; and why “disagreeing better” doesn’t mean giving up your most strongly held beliefs. Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Spencer Cox is the governor of Utah.Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices