Don’t take early numbers too seriously. It’s the first chapter of a book. You might think you know where it goes, but each story is different. Early votes are not linear, they are often jumbled by different start times or counting processes. So don’t take them seriously.Okay? Did you read that? Are you not going to take them seriously?Fine. Let’s torture ourselves with early voting data. * VoteHub* Jon Ralston Early Voting Blog* UMichVoterAlso…The great Bill Scher (Washington Monthly) joins to discuss where Kamala Harris is and how she wins the election. Andrew Heaton tells us of all the political signage he’s seen during his road trip from Texas to Washington DC. Chapters2:56 Early Vote13:21 Bill Scher1:00:13 UPDATE (Obama and Kamala, $28 million Polymarket Bet, Trump Legal Strategy)1:09:50 Andrew Heaton This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
If you are looking for good President Harris omens, you might want to check back later. * Every betting market has now firmly tilted Trump* Polling averages continue to show Harris wilting in the Blue Wall states* Silver Bulletin, 538 and The Economist prediction models now all point to Trump* The Oracle of Nevada Jon Ralston brings positively bleak news about the early vote in the Silver State for DemocratsTake all of those for what you will. But remember this, the only reason why President Biden isn’t on this ticket is because down ballot candidates made noise that he was dragging them down. Well take a look at an ad Bob Casey is running. The Pennsylvania Senator and staunch Biden ally who is in a close race with Republican Dave McCormick is running an ad bragging about bucking the current White House and working with Donald Trump. Crunch all the numbers you want, nerds. I will always pay attention when a politician starts running for their own lives in defiance of the party.On this episode* Kirk Bado (National Journal’s Hotline) discusses the Kamala Harris fixation on Liz Cheney and if they are even looking for Never Trumpers in the right places.* Howard Mortman (C-SPAN) dives deep into late campaign trivia and the traditions of the Al Smith dinner.* Trump will tape Joe Rogan this Friday. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
PATCH NOTES: * FIXED audio on Jason Whitely Interview* REMOVED f-bombApologies for the last export…—A listener sent me a curious story: There is a Super PAC running ads online that paint Kamala Harris as a staunch defender of Israel AND a weak capitulator inflaming anti-semitism by pandering to Palestinians.Don’t believe me? Here are the ads.Why is the Future Coalition PAC countering their own message? They aren’t. They’re attempting to inflame both sides of the conflict against Kamala Harris in two swing states.The Pro-Israel ads are not running in ZIP codes with high Jewish populations, they’re running in Dearborn, Michigan the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the United States. Meanwhile, the Palestinian “Pandering” ads are running in the suburbs of Pennsylvania where the majority of that crucial state’s jewish population lives.The goal of both is to turn those natural Democratic voters against the nominee.That’s only first 10 minutes of our two-hour episode!* We are joined by Jason Whitely the senior political reporter for WFAA in Dallas. This week he moderated the debate between Colin Allred and Ted Cruz. We talk to him about his moderating philosophy and his thoughts on Texas politics.* Evan ScrimshawandRyan Jakubowskijoin the show to do a Narrative Draft. What are the topics we believe will dominate the conversation after the election.* Carl Allenexplains to us why we’ve been reading polls the wrong way our entire lives and how to change it.All that and snap reactions to the death of Sinwar in Gaza. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
A listener sent me a curious story: There is a Super PAC running ads online that paint Kamala Harris as a staunch defender of Israel AND a weak capitulator inflaming anti-semitism by pandering to Palestinians. Don’t believe me? Here are the ads. Why is the Future Coalition PAC countering their own message? They aren’t. They’re attempting to inflame both sides of the conflict against Kamala Harris in two swing states.The Pro-Israel ads are not running in ZIP codes with high Jewish populations, they’re running in Dearborn, Michigan the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the United States. Meanwhile, the Palestinian “Pandering” ads are running in the suburbs of Pennsylvania where the majority of that crucial state’s jewish population lives. The goal of both is to turn those natural Democratic voters against the nominee. That’s only first 10 minutes of our two-hour episode! * We are joined by Jason Whitely the senior political reporter for WFAA in Dallas. This week he moderated the debate between Colin Allred and Ted Cruz. We talk to him about his moderating philosophy and his thoughts on Texas politics.* Evan Scrimshaw and Ryan Jakubowski join the show to do a Narrative Draft. What are the topics we believe will dominate the conversation after the election.* Carl Allen explains to us why we’ve been reading polls the wrong way our entire lives and how to change it. All that and snap reactions to the death of Sinwar in Gaza. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
The campaign known for booming vibes has hit a recession. None of Kamala Harris’ polls in the Rustbelt have increased in October. Some averages are verging on the dreaded 47% line.That's bad news. Donald Trump is a hard capped 48 % candidate, but you can count on that 48% showing up. What’s more? Other indicators are pointing the wrong direction for Coconut Hive.Nate Silver on his Silver Bulletin Substack has the race back to a 50% tossup.Think what you will about the prediction markets, but Polymarket money is beginning to pile on a Trump victory. Harris ‘24 knows they need a vibe shift and so they will take a risk! Harris will do an interview with Fox News today. This decision is being hailed as bold and it is.But it’s also a massive risk. Kamala has never faced an adversarial interview in her career. Not in California, not in DC, not in her 2019 campaign. This is a big stage to experiment on. Will it pay off? We discuss that and so much more…Karol’s Substack on the Jewish vote in 2024.JD Durkin LIVE FROM THE NYSE FLOOR on the economy. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
COMING FROM PATREON? MAKE SURE YOU MOVE YOUR SUPPORT OVER!Justin Robert Young and polimath (Matt Shapiro) explore the duality of truth in politics, anxiety within the Democratic Party regarding Kamala Harris's campaign and the implications of Biden's debate performance. The conversation delves into the shifting narratives in political discourse, the challenges facing Harris, and the role of FEMA in disaster response. They also touch on voter sentiment, election predictions, coalition shifts, and the future of AI in politics. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
Tom LoBianco wants to tell the FULL story of January 6th from Mike Pence. Justin unveils the four potential scenarios for the 2024 election outcome with Evan Scrimshaw.Chapters00:00 The Pence Quest Begins39:40 Introduction and Election Scenarios46:26 Positive Republican Outcomes50:06 Democratic Civil War55:19 Democratic Optimism01:01:53 The Case for a Democratic Sweep01:35:54 The Texas Political Landscape This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
BIG EPISODE TO BEGIN OCTOBER!Justin gets into the current polling trends with Michael Cohen, separating fact and fiction in Springfield, Ohio and the unusual partnership between Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney.Claire Meynial makes her Px3 debut to talk about the flashing warning signs for Harris in Dearborn, Michigan.CHAPTERS2:53 Michael Cohen33:01 VP Debate Thoughts53:57 The Widening War in Middle East1:10:29 Liz Cheney campaigning with Kamala Harris1:20:31 The Truth In Springfield, Ohio1:39:57 Will Middle East Cost Harris Michigan? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
Justin Robert Young and Andrew Heaton discuss the vice presidential debate, analyzing a sparkling JD Vance and slightly wobbly Tim Walz. 00:39 Vance Won09:53 Joe Biden Erasure12:35 Moderation and Fact-Checking in Debates18:41 The Lack of Personal Attacks21:34 Trade Policies and Economic Perspectives Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
The least consequential debate of the cycle? OF COURSE WE'RE STILL GOING TO GRIND THE TAPE! Vance vs. Ryan in 2022 and Walz vs. Jensen in 2022. I actually think this debate is actually going to be good.Also, Jeff Maurer (Last Week Tonight, I Might Be Wrong) joins the show to discuss why all political communications from campaigns try to be funny these days. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
Justin Robert Young interviews Matthew Beat, known as Mr. Beat on YouTube, who shares his journey from being a social studies teacher to a successful YouTuber with over a million subscribers. They discuss the evolution of infotainment in education, the power of history in political discourse, and the influence of conspiracies in the digital age. The conversation also touches on the challenges of voter engagement and the shared truths in politics, highlighting the complexities of modern political communication.Chapters11:12 The Allure of Presidential History20:40 The Evolution of Content Creation and Attention Spans40:52 Conspiracies and the Age of Misinformation49:24 Politics: A Shared Truth or a Divided Reality?59:56 The Challenge of Voter Engagement and Information01:05:10 Electoral College Dynamics and Predictions Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
Justin Robert Young and former Congressman Scott Klug delve into the intricacies of political campaigns, focusing on funding dynamics, the impact of controversial figures, and the role of polling in elections. They discuss the challenges candidates face in securing financial support, the importance of local relationships, and the influence of national trends on local races. The conversation also touches on election security reforms and the evolving landscape of political communication.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Untold Congressional Stories01:02 The Role of Money in Politics19:01 Polling Metrics and Candidate Viability21:55 Decision-Making in Political Committees39:26 Election Security and Reform Ideas45:33 Reflections on Political Careers Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
Evan Scrimshaw and Justin Young discuss the current political landscape in the United States, focusing on key states like Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan, as well as the implications of recent Canadian elections. They analyze the strategies Democrats should adopt to secure victories in critical House districts, the impact of abortion rights on voter sentiment, and the role of Kamala Harris in the upcoming elections. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
Justin Robert Young discusses the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, exploring the details surrounding the incident, the background of the assailant Ryan Routh, and the implications for political security in the current climate. Chapters00:00 Assassination Attempt on Trump02:37 Political Rhetoric and Historical Context05:18 Understanding the Perpetrator: Ryan Wesley Routh09:58 Routh's Background and Motivations21:11 Implications for Political Security23:29 The Current Political Climate and Future Concerns Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
In this episode, Justin Robert Young discusses the recent debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with experts Tom LoBianco and Michael Cohen. They analyze the performances of both candidates, focusing on Harris's strategic approach and Trump's chaotic style. The conversation also delves into post-debate polling and predictions for the upcoming election, emphasizing the importance of voter perception and the impact of viral moments in political discourse. Also, the gang takes a look at polling errors and tipping point states. Notably Pennsylvania and Georgia, and the implications of voter turnout in these regions as the election approaches.Chapters04:14 Strategic Imperatives: Campaign Tactics and Goals07:01 Viral Moments and Public Perception18:58 Polling Insights: What Comes Next?44:02 Polling Methodology and Its Importance46:27 Understanding Sample Sizes in Polling58:57 Identifying Tipping Point States Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
Everything you need to know about the Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump debate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
Justin Robert Young deep dives into Kamala Harris's debate performances from 2016 to 2020. He analyzes her strengths and weaknesses, including her preparedness and prosecutorial style. Kamala Harris is effective when delivering practiced moments and looking directly into the camera. However, her instincts on when to do so may not be particularly good. She is a slow starter and may struggle against a more domineering presence like Donald Trump.Chapters00:43 2016 Senate Debate17:25 2019 Primary Debates31:04 UPDATE: Harris Fundraising, Trump Sentencing, Liz Cheney Endorsement37:28 2020 Vice Presidential Debate Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
In this episode, Justin Robert Young and Jennifer Briney discuss their experiences at the Republican and Democratic conventions. Justin also cover topics such as the money spent on political ads, the importance of swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, and the Kamala Harris campaign's efforts to redefine her image. Chapters00:00 Introduction03:35 Polling Data and Key States07:08 Ad Spending and the Money Gap14:22 Concerns for House and Senate Republicans18:58 Arrest of Linda Sun and Chris Hu20:39 JD Vance's Media Strategy22:37 RFK Jr.'s Lawsuit Against North Carolina State Board of Elections25:31 Jen Briney and the DNC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
Justin Robert Young discusses the Kamala Harris-Tim Walz CNN interview and the return of Musa Al-Gharbi to the show. https://musaalgharbi.substack.com/p/we-have-never-been-woke-is-now-officiallyChapters00:00 Introduction and Overview03:47 Harris Walz CNN Interview Thoughts14:21 Trump WILL NOT Vote for FL Abortion Amendment19:15 Altercation at Arlington National Cemetery22:50 Opposition research in the Veep Stakes27:38 Musa Al-Gharbi 01:16:15 Gratitude to the audience Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
In this episode, Justin Robert Young recaps Kamala Harris's speech at the DNC and discusses RFK Jr. dropping out of the race with Evan Scrimshaw. Chapters00:18 Kamala Speech Review09:43 Update on the Next Few Weeks of Shows11:44 Evan Scrimshaw Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
John Ellsworth
This my favorite political podcast.