Power Problems

Oona Hathaway, professor of international law at Yale University, addresses President Trump’s plans to expand US territory into Greenland, the Panama Canal, and Canada. She discusses international law, the causes of the decline in interstate war, the difference between norms and laws, the problem of enforcement, tensions between norms against conquest and the need for a negotiated peace in the Russia-Ukraine war, among other topics. Show NotesOona A. Hathaway, Scott J. Shapiro, The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World, Simon & Schuster, 2017. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sam Bresnick, Research Fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, discusses artificial intelligence in the context of the US-China relationship. He explains how AI will be used by states in coming years and compares different obstacles and advantages that both the US and China have in their competition to develop AI and its various applications. Among other topics, he also discusses diplomatic pathways for the US and China to avoid dangerous AI scenarios. Show NotesSam Bresnick, “The Obstacles to China’s AI Power,” Foreign Affairs, December 31, 2024Sam Bresnick, et al., “Which Ties Will Bind?” CSET Issue Brief, February 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Julia Gledhill, Research Associate for the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center, discusses the “permanent war economy” and ongoing efforts to increase military spending. She also talks about perverse incentives for defense contractors, the myth that military spending is properly construed as a jobs program, and the lack of strategic thinking in policy debates on how to confront China, among other issues. Show NotesJulia Gledhill, “The Truth about the Permanent War Economy,” Stimson Center Issue Brief, December 2, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, discusses how the international politics of the Ukraine war have changed since Trump’s election win, how to move towards negotiations to end the war, and the various issues - from territory to NATO membership - to be resolved in any peace deal. Show NotesAnatol Lieven, “Three Conditions for a US-Backed Peace Agreement in Ukraine,” UnHerd, November 30, 2024.Anatol Lieven, George Beebe, “The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine,” Quincy Paper #13, February 16, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Joshua Landis, professor of Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma, discusses the recent rebel advances in Syria, the causes and conditions that paved the way for the fall of the Assad regime, the many mistakes of US policy since the start of the civil war, and the regional politics wrapped up in Syria’s future.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard University, discusses the foreign policy implications of Trump’s victory, the extent to which it represents a rejection of “Liberal Hegemony,” and why Trump failed in his first term to set U.S. foreign policy on a new course. He also discusses the bureaucratic challenges of reforming foreign policy, what to expect from Trump in the second term, and the potentially beneficial constraints of “American decline,” among other topics. Show NotesStephen M. Walt, “The 10 Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 Election,” Foreign Policy, November 8, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Brandan P. Buck, research fellow at the Cato Institute, discuss the impact of foreign policy in Trump’s electoral victory, whether Democrats will rethink their foreign policy agenda following their losses, what changes Trump might make with respect to the wars in Europe and the Middle East and towards China, among other topics. Show NotesChristopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim, “America’s Foreign Policy Inertia,” Foreign Affairs, October 14, 2024Brandan P. Buck, “Harris Embrace of Cheney Goes Back to World War I,” Responsible Statecraft, October 22, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, discusses America’s new regime of high protective tariffs under the Trump and Biden administrations and assesses what may be to come on trade policy under a future Trump or Harris administration. He discusses the overly expansive authorities presidents have to impose tariffs, the weakness of commonly employed national security justifications for them, and the economics of why tariffs fail, among other topics.Show NotesClark Packard and Scott Lincicome, "Presidential Tariff Powers and the Need for Reform," Cato Institute Briefing Paper No. 179, October 9, 2024Scott Lincicome, "Six-Plus Years of Incoherent, Ineffective China Policy," The Dispatch, October 2, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Alex Yu-Ting Lin, Assistant Director and Senior Research Fellow at the University of Notre Dame’s International Security Center, explains how China’s concerns about status interact with smaller regional states and how that in turn helps shape the US-China rivalry. He examines how states use information warfare to delegitimize adversaries’ foreign policies and applies his analysis to US-China relations. He also discusses Euro-centric bias in international relations studies, China’s approach to flashpoints like the South China Sea and Taiwan, and whether China should be considered “revisionist,” among other topics. Show NotesAlex Yu-Ting Lin, "Contestation from Below: Status and Revisionism in Hierarchy," International Studies Quarterly, Volume 68, Issue 3 (2024).Alex “Yu-Ting Lin, “US Bias in the Study of Asian Security: Using Europe to Ignore Asia," Journal of Global Security Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2019): 393-401. (with David C. Kang) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dov Levin, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Hong Kong, examines the effects of whataboutism - essentially, charges of U.S. hypocrisy - on Americans’ foreign policy views. He explains his survey experiments to test the effectiveness of whatbaoutism on US public opinion and how it might shape policy. He also discusses his work on U.S. foreign election interference, the academic literature on hypocrisy costs, U.S. foreign policy activism, and avenues for future research on whataboutism.Show NotesWilfred Chow and Dov Levin, “The Diplomacy of Whataboutism and US Foreign Policy Attitudes,” International Organization Volume 78, Issue 1, Winter 2024, pp. 103-133. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Peter Harris critiques America’s grand strategy of primacy and advocates for a move to restraint that necessarily includes wholesale reforms to domestic as well as foreign policy. He explains why primacy has persisted despite the wisdom of retrenchment and how decades of an expansive foreign policy has shaped American politics, culture, and institutions. He also discusses the problems of vested interests, partisanship, and how to make restraint more salable to the public.Show NotesPeter Harris, Why America Can’t Retrench (and How it Might), Polity Press, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Daniel DePetris and Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities discuss the latest iteration of the Axis of Evil threat, this time in reference to China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, and argue their relationship is misconstrued and overhyped. They discuss threat inflation, the relationship dynamics among these four powers, including China and Russia’s relationship and how US posture has pushed them together, the state of the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s role in the Middle East, the problem of prioritizing threats and interests under primacy, and how to constructively think about core US national interests, among other issues.Show NotesDaniel DePetris and Jennifer Kavanagh, “The ‘Axis of Evil’ is Overhyped,” Foreign Policy, August 14, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Stimson Center’s Senior Fellow Dan Grazier and Research Associate Julia Gledhill analyze U.S. defense spending and explain how the Pentagon is creating “a budgetary time bomb set to explode in the next twenty years.” They discuss several examples of failed over-budget weapons acquisition programs and warn that future such fiascos are now in the making, with unsustainable budgetary implications, unless crucial reforms to U.S. defense and foreign policy are made. Show NotesDan Grazier, Julia Gledhill, Geoff Wilson, “Current Defense Plans Require Unsustainable Future Spending”, Stimson Center Issue Brief, July 16, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Renanah Joyce, Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, and Brian Blankenship, Assistant Professor at the University of Miami, explain how great power competition for foreign military bases in third-party host countries increases the costs of securing access. They discuss the strategy behind US forward basing over time, expansion into Africa in recent years, different ways of providing compensation to host countries, increasing competition for host country access, the lack of transparency on US overseas presence, and the strategic utility (or lack thereof) of overseas basing. Show Notes:Renanah Miles Joyce & Brian Blankenship (2024) “The Market for Foreign Bases,” Security Studies, 33(2), 194-223. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Charles Glaser, senior fellow at MIT’s Security Studies program and professor emeritus at George Washington University, discusses the dynamics of the security dilemma and international order. He explores how the security dilemma concept provides insights into America’s rivalry with its two great power rivals, Russia and China, and discusses U.S. policy with respect to the war in Ukraine, the dispute over Taiwan, U.S. interests vs commitments in East Asia, how to trim undesirable commitments, and why Washington’s flawed “liberal international order” concept leads to more conflictual foreign policies. Show NotesCharles L. Glaser, “Fear Factor,” Foreign Affairs, June 18, 2024Charles L. Glaser, “Washington is Avoiding the Tough Questions on Taiwan and China,” Foreign Affairs, April 28, 2021Charles L. Glaser “A Flawed Framework: Why the Liberal International Order Concept is Misguided,” International Security, Vol. 43, No. 4 (Spring 2019), pp. 51-87. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Benjamin Friedman, policy director at Defense Priorities, argues that the United States should immediately begin withdrawing military forces from Europe to set the stage for European defense autonomy. He discusses the history of NATO, how it’s strategic purposes have evolved over time, what NATO costs America, defensibility problems with some Eastern European members, institutional inertia, differing threat assessments of Russia, and burden-sharing vs burden-dropping, among other topics. Benjamin Friedman, "A New NATO Agenda: Less U.S., Less Dependency," Defense Priorities, July 8, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Emma Ashford, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses recent escalations in the Ukraine war, the costs to the United States and European partners of supporting Kyiv, the effect of the conflict on Russia’s economy, the problems with Biden’s strategy, why it’s unlikely Ukraine can achieve total victory, the timing of ceasefire diplomacy and peace talks, how early negotiations proved the significance of Ukraine’s neutrality as a core issue of the war, the wayward mission of NATO and the future of the alliance, and why it’s not in US interests to bring Ukraine into NATO, among other issues.Show NotesEmma Ashford, “Testing Assumptions About the War in Ukraine,” Stimson Center Policy Memo, May 23, 2024Emma Ashford, Joshua Shifrinson, Stephen Wertheim, “What Does America Want in Ukraine,” Foreign Policy, May 8, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rachel Metz, assistant professor of political science at George Washington University, explains why security assistance, one of the most ubiquitous programs in U.S. foreign policy, so often fails. She argues that bureaucratic interests, organizational processes, and perverse dynamics of civil-military relations discourage conditioning U.S. support for partner militaries. She also discusses the role of norms in the U.S. Army, the need for greater civilian oversight and management, why the policymakers need to be more selective about security assistance, and how U.S. political leaders have expanded the military’s roles and responsibilities to the detriment of an effective U.S. strategy. Show NotesRachel Tecott Metz; “The Cult of the Persuasive: Why U.S. Security Assistance Fails,” International Security 2022/2023; 47 (3): 95–135. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jonathan Kirshner, professor of political science and international studies at Boston College, discusses his most recent book, An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics. Kirshner provides fundamental critiques of structural realism and offensive realism and argues for classical realism’s greater explanatory power and firmer theoretical underpinnings. He also covers rationalist explanations for war, the role of change and uncertainty in world politics, the rise of China, and why effective grand strategy requires a healthy politics, among other topics. Show NotesJonathan Kirshner, An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics, Princeton University Press, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Hannah, senior fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs, the nonprofit housed at the Eurasia Group, and host of the None of the Above podcast, argues that President Biden has not used the leverage US support provides over Israel in its war in Gaza and Ukraine in its war with Russia, prolonging the conflicts instead of imposing real conditions and pressing for negotiated resolutions. He discusses the recently passed aid bill, Israel’s planned attack on Rafah and Biden’s threat to withhold aid, and the politics within each party over Israel and Ukraine, as well as the American addiction to war and tendency to construe international conflicts in simplified Manichean terms, among other issues.Show NotesMark Hannah, “Biden needs to get real with Ukraine and Israel,” CNN, April 26, 2024Mark Hannah, “Straight Talk on the Country’s War Addiction,” New York Times, February 18, 2023Mark Hannah, “Why Is the Wartime Press Corps So Hawkish,” Foreign Policy, March 30, 2022 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.