Predictive Programming

Maple, one of the sharpest minds in sports prediction markets, to break down how he actually makes money trading sports. From his early days exploiting sportsbook promos and same-game parlays, to originating his own numbers, going all-in on sweepstakes exchanges, and navigating platforms like Novig, Kalshi, and ProfitX, Maple walks through the real mechanics behind winning — and why most people misunderstand them. We dive deep into fees, liquidity, adverse selection, combos vs parlays, and where prediction markets are headed over the next few years. Chapters (00:00:00) - Louis on Predictive Programming(00:00:49) - LeBron on His NBA Parlay(00:02:18) - Did You Ever Recreationally Bet Sports?(00:04:44) - Capping on DraftKings's Golden Age(00:06:11) - SportsLine: When Should You Parlay?(00:09:07) - In the Elevator With Rich People(00:10:11) - Jan Novig on Profit X Sweepstakes(00:12:19) - Lone Wolf on NBA Sweepstakes(00:18:29) - Is Kalshi increasing their fees?(00:20:10) - Kalshi: If We're Going to Increase Fees,(00:24:28) - Will Kalshi Replace FanDuel?(00:28:46) - Steve Kalshi on the Supreme Court's Sportsbook Cases(00:31:33) - Predicting Markets: The Stupid Trade(00:32:33) - Sportsbooks on Combo Parlays(00:36:07) - What's the Long Term Hold on Parlays?(00:38:42) - Kalsha: Will I Never Get Limited on Prediction Markets?

Gaeten Dugas, a prominent prediction market trader, who shares his journey into the world of prediction markets, particularly focusing on Spotify and entertainment markets. Gaeten discusses with Henry and Chris about his strategies, recent trades, and the impact of new music releases on market dynamics. Chapters (00:00:00) - Spotify's Gaten Douglas on Predictive Programming(00:00:26) - Caleb Davis: On Kalshee, Predicting Future(00:04:33) - Predicted: How to Make Money on Algorithmic Trading(00:06:56) - Trump's Motivation for Venezuela(00:14:56) - Spotify's 'Daily' Most Streamed Song(00:17:03) - Is It In Your Mind When an Album Debut(00:18:35) - Steve Miller on His Big Positions(00:21:28) - How Do Streaming Charts Compare on Spotify?(00:23:02) - Taylor Swift vs Olivia Dean: Should You Bet on Either?(00:27:06) - Spotify's Olivia Dean Pick, and More(00:34:36) - Outside Investors: Insider Trading Kills Markets(00:36:36) - Inventing Insider Trading(00:40:57) - Top Stock Trader: No Insider Trading(00:44:19) - Predicting Sports in 2026

Chris and Henry start 2026 by reacting to tweets from industry insider Dustin Gouker. Ready to understand how sports prediction markets are being revolutionized from the inside? Listen to discover key industry insights and peer into the future of prediction markets. Chapters (00:00:00) - Predict Predictable Predictions(00:00:10) - Novig Enjoyer on Kalshi(00:01:59) - Dustin Galker On The Prediction Market(00:03:32) - Dustin Dahmer Hates Prediction Markets (Seriously)(00:06:27) - DraftKings vs CME: Should They Build a Crypto Exchange?(00:10:55) - Risk Takers: The John Wang Effect on Sports(00:15:05) - Rufus the Hedge Fund Guy(00:16:06) - Predicting Future Real Estate Prices(00:18:10) - Predicting Housing Prices With No Liquidity(00:24:23) - Bokashi Cannot Keep An Actual Candidate From Trading On His Own(00:30:43) - Dustin Woods: "This is a good tweet"(00:30:56) - Scared LeBron? You Should Bet On The Underdogs!(00:34:46) - Prediction Markets: No VOTES(00:39:46) - Dustin Hoffman on New Year's

Chris and Henry intrewiew Domer and ask the questions that couldn't be asked during Domer's Sixty Minutes interview this past Sunday. They talk about Domer’s backstory and how he became one of the top prediction market traders in the world. Ready to understand how sports prediction markets are being revolutionized from the inside? Listen to discover key industry insights and peer into the future of prediction markets. Chapters (00:00:00) - Huge Guest(00:00:49) - Bradley on Trading Gambling(00:02:11) - PokerStars on Predictability Markets(00:03:19) - What's the First Year of Prediction Market Trading?(00:04:03) - Predicting the Oscars and Presidential Elections(00:05:54) - How to Win Money on Betting(00:07:52) - How to Win at Scale(00:08:16) - Quantum Trading Has Become More Difficult(00:12:45) - What is Day 0 of Trading a New Market?(00:17:03) - In the Elevator With a Prediction Market(00:19:21) - Bovada Sportsbook Bans Betting On Sports(00:22:16) - Steve Ballentine on Scaling(00:24:06) - Have We Reached the Limit of Prediction Markets?(00:25:52) - Will Prediction Markets Replace the Fed Markets?(00:32:26) - Prediction Market Traders: Finding the Upside(00:37:57) - What has biased me so much in this exam?(00:40:30) - Will the Person of the Year Be AI-related?(00:42:40) - The Oscars Betting(00:47:25) - Prediction Markets: Should the CFTC Set Limits?(00:50:07) - On Political Commentations on Prediction Markets(00:54:02) - Top Executives: Prediction Markets Are Important(00:56:51) - A Question for the Audience

Chris and Henry sit down with @Foster who talks about his journey from casino blackjack dealer to full time prediction market trader. Ready to understand how sports prediction markets are being revolutionized from the inside? Listen to discover key industry insights and peer into the future of prediction markets.

Henry and Chris sit down with the founder of Billy Bets, Joe O'Rourke (@BunchuBets on X) aka Bunchu, to discuss his journey from sports to crypto to prediction markets! Ready to understand how sports prediction markets are being revolutionized from the inside? Listen to discover key industry insights and peer into the future of prediction markets. Chapters (00:00:00) - Predictable, Predictable Prediction(00:00:09) - Interviewing Billy Betts on Kalshi(00:01:05) - Bill Betts on Blockchain in Sports Betting(00:04:52) - BillyBeds on AI and Blockchain(00:12:10) - Will Polymarket US be on Chain or Off-Chain?(00:16:51) - Do Prediction Markets Need to Be on Chain?(00:20:41) - In the Elevator With Crypto Insiders(00:23:12) - Should We Have a Decentralized Prediction Market?(00:24:34) - Does UMA Really Be a Dao?(00:27:46) - Brian Armstrong on the Laced Markets(00:32:30) - Market Maker: Liquidity and Integrity in Crypto(00:39:08) - Billy Bets: Last Minute Plugs

Henry and Chris sit down with Isaac Altman-Sagan to understand his strategies for success and his perspective on the current state of prediction markets. Ready to understand how sports prediction markets are being revolutionized from the inside? Listen to discover key industry insights and peer into the future of prediction markets.   Chapters (00:00:00) - Predict Predictable(00:00:09) - Isaac Altman Sagan on In the Elevator(00:01:39) - Robinhood Market Maker: Week 1(00:03:51) - Bookmaker: Bigger Bet on MLB(00:07:24) - NFL Betting on Taylor Swift(00:09:37) - Betting Advice From Real People(00:12:19) - Your Edge at Poker(00:13:47) - BROKEN: What's The Biggest EV Win On An(00:16:39) - Is the Ecosystem Better Than It Was One Year Ago?(00:20:25) - NFL DraftKings vs FanDuel(00:20:58) - Robinhood Market Maker vs. Polymarket(00:24:51) - Kalshi on Polymarket Acquisition(00:26:12) - Do You Think You're In A Better Spot or Worse Spot?(00:29:17) - NFL Betting: More Liquidity, Less Accuracy(00:34:39) - How to Win a Million on Sports Betting(00:39:07) - Chris Collins on His Trading Portal

PredMTrader joins Henry and Chris to explain what it's like from his newcomer perspective to trade prediction markets. In this episode we discuss mention markets, political markets, sports markets and more.  Ready to understand how sports prediction markets are being revolutionized from the inside? Listen to discover key industry insights and peer into the future of prediction markets. Chapters (00:00:00) - Predictable, Predictable(00:00:10) - Predicting Market Traders(00:00:34) - Prediction Markets Guy(00:02:14) - Disclosure: I Trade Prediction Markets(00:09:17) - In the Elevator With Stock Trading(00:10:02) - Are You Ever Making Money On Crypto?(00:11:07) - Followers: What's Your Selling Point?(00:12:14) - The Taylor Swift Stream(00:14:57) - Marathon on Trading & Content(00:18:31) - Markets: What Other Data Feeds Are You Using?(00:20:56) - How AI Trading and Sports Betting Have Impact(00:24:52) - Predicting Sports on MSN(00:27:31) - What's Next for the Market?(00:28:43) - Political and Business Markets: How They're Going(00:33:58) - Sports and Crypto: Will They Replace Prediction Markets?

Chris announces he's leaving his sports gambling career behind to join Novig! Ready to understand how sports prediction markets are being revolutionized from the inside? Listen to discover key industry insights and peer into the future of prediction markets.   Chapters (00:00:00) - Intro(00:00:30) - You Dress As You Want to(00:01:21) - Chris has a new job(00:01:52) - Novig's potential(00:05:57) - Joe Buck on Speculated Markets(00:14:21) - Market Maker: Better Standards for Prediction Markets(00:19:16) - DraftKings and Matching: The End of Sports Betting on(00:24:32) - Potential Use Cases for Prediction Markets(00:28:55) - Predicting Markets: The Future of Tech

Adhi Rajaprabhakaran is back to deep dive parlays on prediction markets. Ready to understand how sports prediction markets are being revolutionized from the inside? Listen to discover key industry insights and peer into the future of prediction markets. Chapters (00:00:00) - Predictive Programming(00:00:37) - Jannik: Sinner is Not My Peer(00:04:31) - NFL Predictions: RFQ Parlay(00:07:22) - Barclays on the Parlay System(00:14:01) - Punishment for Parlay: Dead Money(00:18:36) - DraftKings vs Kalshee(00:20:04) - Market Maker Says Parlays Can't Be Eliminated(00:24:02) - Does It Actually Matter Who Is Faster?(00:29:00) - Kalsha on Robinhood and the Future(00:30:05) - Robinhood vs. Cowys: Which One Is the Real Val(00:33:29) - Audi vs. Porsche

Media coverage—even when satirical or critical—serves to legitimize prediction markets by boosting public awareness, helping to normalize the concept in mainstream culture. At the same time, the difficulty some successful bettors face in distinguishing between traditional sportsbooks and exchanges underscores a broader knowledge gap, highlighting how prediction markets operate on fundamentally different principles than casual sports betting. Chapters (00:00:00) - Predictable, Predictable Eagles vs Vikings Prediction(00:00:17) - Predictive Programming: Week 4(00:00:58) - South Park and The Wall Street Journal: Paid Shills(00:02:52) - Could You Write an Article About the Prediction Market Industry?(00:04:06) - CFTC Roundtable(00:04:51) - Novig Is for Sale(00:07:01) - NFL Star on His Bigger Goal(00:08:41) - How to Become a Sports Trader(00:11:43) - Novig on FanDuel(00:13:24) - Liquidity Provider vs. Trading: Their Preference(00:14:13) - Expert: Working at a Sportsbook Is Bad for Talent(00:17:27) - Trade on an Exchange(00:18:50) - Predicting Markets: The Future of Money Trading(00:20:23) - What Software Do You Use To Trade Sports?(00:25:18) - Inventing Sports With Insider Trading Tools(00:27:51) - Will Businesses Bite Into Bloomberg Terminal?(00:31:47) - Bloomberg's 'Bitcoin' Story(00:34:16) - Joe Biden on SNL

Henry and Chris discuss the ever evolving role of prediction markets in the financial sector and more! Chapters (00:00:00) - Predictable Predictions(00:00:10) - Sports Betting(00:00:38) - Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision Hurt the Market?(00:04:12) - Predicting If a Company Will Beat Earnings or Not(00:07:46) - Fed Rate Cuts: Can They Ever Happen?(00:17:01) - Polymarket CEO on the CFTC and Crypto(00:19:28) - Polymarket: What Valuation Should Investors Give to the Company?(00:21:17) - Robinhood: The Future of Crypto(00:27:25) - The #MeToo Moment(00:28:02) - Market Makers Are Not Sportsbooks, Sarah Slane Says(00:34:04) - Market Maker: Parlays Need Open(00:41:06) - How to Talk to Newcomers(00:43:02) - Let's Talk Future Plans

Adhi is the author of "50c Dollars", the definitive Prediction Market newsletter. Find him on Twitter @eightyhi Chapters (00:00:00) - Predicting. Predictable Predictions(00:00:10) - The First Guest on #PredictingSports(00:01:45) - How Kalshi Betting Changed My Life(00:03:21) - Prediction Markets: The Betting Experience(00:12:21) - Predicting the NBA, Sportsbooks(00:14:57) - How to Make a Living on Predictions(00:18:35) - Expert: Don't Get Run Over by Insider Trading on Crypto(00:26:55) - Are Stock Exchanges Bad for Investors?(00:30:41) - DraftKings CEO on Market Makers(00:32:33) - DraftKings vs. FanDuel: How Can Both Win(00:37:21) - Interview

Nobody understands the fee structure. Everybody's gonna get rich. Henry touts rap beefs from 20 years ago. Chapters (00:00:00) - Intro(00:00:08) - Prediction Markets Update(00:05:23) - FIFO(00:10:26) - Penny Jumping(00:14:41) - Liquidity(00:18:19) - Sports vs. Everything Else(00:21:20) - What Will the People Choose?(00:29:05) - Riggable Outcomes and PMs(00:31:10) - Conclusion