Probable Causation

Joseph Doyle talks about improving foster care outcomes. “Effects of Enhanced Legal Aid in Child Welfare: Evidence from a Randomized Trial of Mi Abogado” by Ryan Cooper, Joseph J. Doyle, and Andrés Hojman. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effects of Legal Representation on Tenant Outcomes in Housing Court: Evidence from New York City’s Universal Access Program” by Michael T. Cassidy and Janet Currie. "Better Together? A Field Experiment on Human-Algorithm Interaction in Child Protection" by Marie-Pascale Grimon and Christopher Mills.

Barry Friedman talks with Jens Ludwig about his book: Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.

Elin Colmsjö talks about how health shocks affect criminal behavior. “Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime” by Steffen Andersen, Elin Colmsjö, Gianpaolo Parise, and Kim Peijnenburg.  OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation" by Isaac Ehrlich. “Long-term and spillover effects of health shocks on employment and income” by Pilar García-Gómez, Hans Van Kippersluis, Owen O’Donnell, and Eddy Van Doorslaer. “The economic consequences of hospital admissions" by Carlos Dobkin, Amy Finkelstein, Raymond Kluender, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo. “Family health behaviors" by Itzik Fadlon and Torben Heien Nielsen. “Family labor supply responses to severe health shocks: Evidence from Danish administrative records" by Itzik Fadlon and Torben Heien Nielsen. “Child’s gender, young fathers’ crime, and spillover effects in criminal behavior" and Christian Dustmann and Rasmus Landersø. “Life shocks and crime: A test of the 'turning point' hypothesis” by Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan, Nancy E Reichman, and Ofira Schwartz-Soicher. "Does Welfare Prevent Crime? the Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI" by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith. Probable Causation Episode 72: Manasi Deshpande. "Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility" by Elisa Jácome. Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome. "The Effect of Medicaid on Crime: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment" by Amy Finkelstein, Sarah Miller, and Katherine Baicker.

Sekou Keita talks about how media policies that limit information reported about criminal offenders can unintentionally increase bias against the group they're trying to protect. “The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration” by Sekou Kenta, Thomas Renault, and Jérôme Valette. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Anti-Muslim voting and media coverage of immigrant crimes" by Mathieu Couttenier, Sophie Hatte, Mathias Thoenig, and Stephanos Vlachos. "News, Emotions, and Policy Views on Immigration" by Elena Manzoni, Elie Murard, Simone Quercia, and Sara Tonini. "Media Coverage of Immigration and the Polarization of Attitudes" by Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski and Jérôme Valette. Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan

Nour Abdul-Razzak talks about her research on a cognitive behavioral therapy program called Choose to Change. “Longer-term Impacts of a Youth Behavioral Science Intervention: Experimental Evidence from Chicago” by Nour Abdul-Razzak, Brandon Domash, Kelly Hallberg, and Cristobal Pinto Poehls. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Scarcity: Why having too little means so much by Sendhil Mullainathan and Eldar Shafir. “Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan. “Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Reduces Crime and Violence over Ten Years: Experimental Evidence” by Christopher Blattman, Sebastian Chaskel, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan. “Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago" by Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman. Probable Causation Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin. "Therapy to Reduce Violence and Improve Institutional Safety During Incarceration" by Bill Evans, Tyler Giles, and Rebecca Margolit-Chan. "Can Recidivism be Prevented from Behind Bars? Evidence from a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour. "'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program" by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, Crystal S. Yang. Probable Causation Episode 113: Peter Hull . “A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah. Probable Causation Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube.

Crystal Yang talks about her research on the accreditation of jail-based health care. “The Hidden Health Care Crisis Behind Bars: A Randomized Trial to Accredit U.S. Jails” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Impact of hospital accreditation on quality improvement in healthcare: A systematic review” by Mohammad J. Alhawajreh, Audrey S. Paterson, and William J. Jackson. “Improvement in quality of hospital care during accreditation: A nationwide stepped-wedge study" by Søren Bie Bogh, Anne Mette Falstie-Jensen, Erik Hollnagel, René Holst, Jeffrey Braithwaite, and Søren Paaske Johnsen. “Evaluating Accreditation” by Charles D. Shaw. "Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility" by Elisa Jácome. Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome. "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. Probable Causation Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. "Access to health Care and Criminal Behavior: Evidence form the ACA Medicaid Expansions" by Jacob Vogler. "The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-Waiver Expansions" by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, and Janet R. Cummings. “The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew J. Lindquist. Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist. “The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

Steve Mello talks the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. “Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Report on the economic well-being of U.S. households in 2017" by Jeff Larrimore, Alex Durante, Kimberly Kreiss, Christina Park, and Claudia Sahm. "Criminalizing poverty: The consequences of court fees in a randomized experiment" by Devah Pager, Rebecca Goldstein, Helen Ho, and Bruce Western. "The Government Revenue, Recidivism, and Financial Health Effects of Criminal Fines and Fees" by Tyler Giles. "The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multi-State Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data" by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith.

Rachel Nesbit talks about the effects of mandating mental health treatment for probationers. “The Role of Mandated Mental Health Treatment in the Criminal Justice System” by Rachel Nesbit. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Calgary Diversion Program: A Community-Based Alternative to Incarceration for Mentally Ill Offenders” by Craig Mitton, Liz Simpson, Leslie Gardner, Fran Barnes, and Gerald McDougall. “Mental Health Treatment and Criminal Justice Outcomes” by Richard G. Frank and Thomas G. McGuire. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Effectiveness of Using Incentives to Improve Parolee Admission and Attendance in Community Addiction Treatment” by Michael L. Prendergast, Elizabeth A. Hall, Jason Grossman, Robert Veliz, Liliana Gregorio, Umme S. Warda, Kory Van Unen, and Chloe Knight. “A Randomized Trial of the Effectiveness of Using Incentives to Reinforce Parolee Attendance in Community Addiction Treatment: Impact on Post-treatment Outcomes” by Elizabeth A. Hall, Michael L. Prendergast, and Umme Warda. “A Randomized Trial of Probation Case Management for Drug-involved Women Offenders” by Joseph Guydish, Monica Chan, Alan Bostrom, Martha A. Jessup, Thomas B. Davis, and Cheryl Marsh. “The First 90 Days Following Release from Jail: Findings from the Recovery Management Checkups for Women Offenders (RMCWO) Experiment” by Christy K. Scott and Michael L. Dennis. "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour. “Reducing the Burden of Mental Illness on the Criminal Justice System: Evidence from Light-Touch Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips. Probable Causation Episode 67: David Phillips. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome. "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. Probable Causation Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague.

Peter Hull talks about the effects of a jail-based education program called IGNITE. “'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “What Works? Questions and Answers about Prison Reform” by Robert Martinson. “Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

Abi Adams talks about economic abuse as it relates to intimate partner violence. “The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships” by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Motherhood and Violence" by Gabriela Deschamps. "Female empowerment and male backlash: Experimental evidence from India" by Claire Cullen, Sarthak Joshi, Joseph Vecci, and Julia Talbot-Jones. "The Unintended Impacts of an Intimate Partner Violence Prevention Program: Experimental Evidence from Rwanda" by Claire Cullen, Arthur Alik-Lagrange, Mũthoni Ngatia, and Julia Vaillant. "Method Matters: The Underreporting of Intimate Partner Violence" by Claire Cullen. "Violence against Women at Work" by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. "The Economic Cost of Rape" by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. [Available from the authors.]

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform. “No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho. “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson. “The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope. “The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization” by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman. “Optimal Bail and the Value of Freedom: Evidence from the Philadelphia Bail Experiment” by David S. Abrams and Chris Rohlfs. “Does Cash Bail Deter Misconduct?” by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson. Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson. “Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss. “The Impact of Defense Counsel at Bail Hearings” by Shamena Anwar, Shawn D. Bushway, and John Engberg. “Pursuing Pretrial Justice Through an Alternative to Bail” by Melanie Skemer, Cindy Redcross, and Howard Bloom. “Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.

Roman Rivera talks about the effects of electronic monitoring for US pretrial defendants. “Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky. “Better at Home Than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France” by Anaïs Henneguelle, Benjamin Monnery, and Annie Kensey. “Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?” by Jenny Williams and Don Weatherburn. Probable Causation Episode 79: Jenny Williams. “The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Offenders and Their Families" by Julien Grenet, Hans Grönqvist, and Susan Niknami. "Human Decisions and Machine Predictions" by Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan. "Algorithmic Risk Assessments and the Double-Edged Sword of Youth" by Megan T. Stevenson and Christopher Slobogin. "The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

Aurélie Ouss talks about how changing who pays for incarceration affects sentencing decisions. “Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States” by Aurélie Ouss. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by William J. Stuntz. "The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment" by David H. Autor and Mark G. Duggan. "Incentives to provide local public goods: fiscal federalism, Russian style" by Ekaterina Zhuravskaya. "Political Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann. "Local Government Dependence on Criminal Justice Revenue and Emerging Constraints" by Shannon R.Graham and Michael D.Makowsky. "More Tickets, Fewer Accidents: How Cash-Strapped Towns Make for Safer Roads" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann. "To Serve and Collect: The Fiscal and Racial Determinants of Law Enforcement" by Michael D. Makowsky, Thomas Stratmann, and Alex Tabarrok. "Finders keepers: forfeiture laws, policing incentives, and local budgets" by Katherine Baicker and Mireille Jacobson. "When Punishment Doesn’t Pay: Cold Glow and Decisions to Punish" by Aurélie Ouss and Alexander Peysakhovich. "Correctional ‘Free Lunch’? Cost Neglect Increases Punishment in Prosecutors" by Eyal Aharoni, Heather M. Kleider-Offutt, and Sarah F. Brosnan. "Organizational structure, police activity and crime" by Itai Ater, Yehonatan Givati, and Oren Rigbi. "Incarceration and Crime: Evidence from California’s Public Safety Realignment Reform" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael. "Impacts of Private Prison Contracting on Inmate Time Served and Recidivism" by Anita Mukherjee.

Anjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior. “From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Momeni. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Breaking Schools’ Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students’ Success and Juvenile Justice Involvement" by Tony Fabelo, Michael D. Thompson, Martha Plotkin, Dottie Carmichael, Miner P. Marchbanks, and Eric A. Booth. “Racial Disparities in School Suspension and Subsequent Outcomes" by Tracey L. Shollenberger. “School Suspensions and Adverse Experiences in Adulthood" by Kerrin C. Wolf and Aaron Kupchik. “The School to Prison Pipeline: Long-Run Impacts of School Suspensions on Adult Crime" by Andrew Bacher-Hicks, Stephen B. Billings, and David J. Deming. “Rethinking Universal Suspension for Severe Student Behavior" by Rebecca Hinze-Pifer and Lauren Sartain. “Discipline Reform, School Culture, and Student Achievement" by Ashley C. Craig and David Martin. “Suspending Suspensions: The Education Production Consequences of School Suspension Policies" by Nolan Pope and George Zuo. “Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog. "Can Restorative Practices Improve School Climate and Curb Suspensions? An Evaluation of the Impact of Restorative Practices in a Mid-Sized Urban School District" by Catherine Augustine, John Engberg, Geoffrey Grimm, Emma Lee, Elaine Wang, Karen Christianson, and Andrea Joseph. “Evaluation of a Whole-School Change Intervention: Findings from a Two-Year Cluster-Randomized Trial of the Restorative Practices Intervention" by Joie Acosta, Matthew Chinman, Patricia Ebener, Patrick S. Malone, Andrea Phillips, and Asa Wilks.

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch "Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch "Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman "Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver "Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry "The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith "Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019. "The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal. “Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings. “Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort. "Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. "The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks. "Parental Incarceration and Children's Educational Attainment" by Carolina Arteaga. “Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. "Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov. "The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes. “When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda’ Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers” by Emma Rackstraw. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn "‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection’: Media and Sentencing" by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss. “The Birth of a Nation: Media and Racial Hate" by Desmond Ang. "The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting" by Stefano DellaVigna and Ethan Kaplan. "How Cable News Reshaped Local Government" by Elliott Ash and Sergio Galletta. "Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil" by Eliana La Ferrara, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea. “The Impact of Fear on Police Behavior and Public Safety" by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Gonçalves, and Emily Weisburst. Probable Causation Episode 65: Felipe Gonçalves “Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K. Weisburst, and Morgan C. Williams, Jr. Probable Causation Episode 55: Morgan Williams, Jr. “Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey. Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey "The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students" by Desmond Ang. Probable Causation Episode 50: Desmond Ang "Civic Responses to Police Violence" by Desmond Ang and Jonathan Tebes. "Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities" by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang. Probable Causation Episode 95: Marcella Alsan "Community Engagement with Law Enforcement after High-Profile Acts of Police Violence" by Desmond Ang, Panka Bencsik, Jesse Bruhn, and Ellora Derenoncourt. "Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence from Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrants" by Felipe M. Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily K. Weisburst. "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. "Copaganda: The Media Origins of the Attitudes Toward Policing in America" by Eunji Kim, Tyler Reno, and Esteban Fernandez. [Working paper available from the authors.] "The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration" by Sekou Keita, Thomas Renault, Jérôme Valette.

David Macdonald talks about the effects of truth-in-sentencing policies. “Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism” by David Macdonald. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Police, prosecutors, criminals, and determinate sentencing: The truth about truth-in-sentencing laws” by Joanna M. Shepherd. “Responses to more severe punishment in the courtroom: Evidence from truth-in-sentencing laws" by Libor Dusek and Fusako Tsuchimoto. "Truthiness in punishment: The far reach of truth-in-sentencing laws in state courts" by Emily G. Owens. "How should inmates be released from prison? An assessment of parole versus fixed-sentence regimes" by Ilyana Kuziemko. "Can Parole Reduce Both Time Served and Crime?" by William Arbour & Steeve Marchand. “Parole Supervision on the Margins” by Michael LaForest-Tucker. “The effect of parole supervision on recidivism” by Evarn J. Ooi and Joanna Wang. "Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix and Steeve Marchand "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour

Ryan Sakoda talks about the effects of post-release supervision.   “Abolish or Reform? An Analysis of Post-Release Supervision” by Ryan Sakoda.   OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Intensive Probation and Parole" by Joan Petersilia and Susan Turner. “The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial” by Geoffrey C. Barnes, Jordan M. Hyatt, Lindsay Ahlman, and Daniel Kent. “An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Intensive Supervision on the Recidivism of High-Risk Probationers” by Jordan M. Hyatt and Geoffrey C. Barnes. “Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii’s HOPE” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman. “Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman. “Alternative Models of Instant Drug Testing: Evidence from an Experimental Trial” by Eric Grommon, Stephen M. Cox, William S. Davidson II, and Timothy S. Bynum. “HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii’s HOPE Evaluation” by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial. “Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?” by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller. “Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial” by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael. “Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose. Probable Causation Episode 98: Evan Rose "Release from Prison, Parole, and Mortality" by Ashna Arora

Amanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment. “Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith “Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr. Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan "The mark of a criminal record" by Devah Pager. "The edge of stigma: An experimental audit of the effects of low-level criminal records on employment" by Christopher Uggen, Mike Vuolo, Sarah Lageson, Ebony Ruhland, and Hilary K. Whitham. "Does banning the box help ex-offenders get jobs? Evaluating the effects of a prominent example" by Evan K. Rose. "The criminal and labor market impacts of incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith. "Expungement of criminal convictions: An empirical study" by J.J. Prescott and Sonja Starr. "Unmarked: Criminal Record Clearing and Employment Outcomes" by Jeffrey Selbin, Justin McCrary, and Joshua Epstein. "America's paper prisons: The second chance gap" by Colleen Chien. "Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey. Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey "Labor Market Impacts of Reducing Felony Convictions" by Amanda Y. Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri K. Koustas, Alexandre Mas, and Crystal Yang. "Is it time to let go of the past? Effect of clean slate regulation on employment and earnings" by Kabir Dasgupta, Keshar Ghimire, and Alexander Plum. "Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record" by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman. Probable Causation Episode 71: Zoë Cullen