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Real Vision: Finance, Business & The Global Economy
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Real Vision: Finance, Business & The Global Economy

Author: Real Vision Podcast Network

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Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts. We unlock access to the leading financial minds in the world to provide unbiased, in-depth analysis from real experts. The Real Vision podcast features our flagship series The Interview - the premier business and finance interview series in the world; And, the Daily Briefing which provides market analysis every weekday after US markets close and before Asian markets open. Subscribe today to get both of these shows totally free.Brought to you from Real Vision.

532 Episodes
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The Interview: Narratives around the reflation trade and asset prices are currently pointing towards a full recovery and a period of extended growth as the world exits lockdowns. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Daniel Lacalle, chief economist and CIO at Tressis, argues that this is being fueled by nothing more than hope and that, although this is a recovery, the world will return to the same state of secular stagnation and low growth that existed pre-COVID. Lacalle explains why fiscal and monetary policies, which have not generated inflation, will only make this situation worse, why he thinks there is only a few months left in the reflation trade, and the resulting asset allocation based on his outlook. They also discuss current pockets of value and the sectors that Lacalle considers to be value traps like energy and financials as well as Lacalle’s outlook for the dollar. Recorded on March 10, 2021. Key Learnings: Sectors like energy and financials, which have been benefiting from reflation narratives and trade at low multiples, should not be considered "value". Current negative views on the US and the dollar remind Lacalle of the GFC, but the reality is that the US and the dollar are still the cleanest dirty shirt. For our Listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Blinkist: Go to blinkist.com/realvision, try it for seven days and save twenty five percent off your new subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Even before COVID, global deficits had already expanded—but in the last year, they have exploded to levels that almost guarantee increases in taxes. We can already see the effects as high-net-worth individuals and businesses leave high tax areas like California for lower tax areas like Florida, Texas, and the Cayman Islands. Dominic Frisby, author of "Daylight Robbery: How Tax Shaped Our Past and Will Change Our Future," sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to discuss the history of taxes, sinister invisible taxes in the form of targeted inflation and monetary debasement, and the future of taxes considering the trends outlined above. Pal and Frisby also discuss the inevitability and virtues of some level of tax and cooperation and the potential for better tax structures to emerge from this crisis. Recorded on March 2, 2021. Key Learnings: Increased taxes, new taxes, and monetary debasement are almost an inevitability considering massive global deficits post-COVID. Immigration and migration patterns have already emerged, and geographies that recognize these trends and adjust their taxation and monetary system in a fair way will attract both human and traditional capital. For our Listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Blinkist: Go to blinkist.com/realvision, try it for seven days and save twenty five percent off your new subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Raoul Pal: Is Macro "Dead"?

Raoul Pal: Is Macro "Dead"?

2021-05-0801:03:252

DB-May7,2021: Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to introduce Real Vision’s latest campaign, “Welcome to the Exponential Age.” Raoul will be going in-depth on his new macro framework, the Exponential Age, and he and Ed tease their interview that’s being released on Monday. They also contextualize today’s U.S. jobs report, which fell far from economists’ expectations, and Raoul explains what the Exponential Age means for employment going forward. For our Listeners: Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Blinkist: Go to blinkist.com/realvision, try it for seven days and save twenty five percent off your new subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May6,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley evaluate price action in markets as the bond market refuses to budge, some chaos in single stocks today has been hidden by relatively flat U.S. equity indexes, and gold is breaking out of its range, surging beyond $1800. Ed also takes an in-depth look at today's economic data on initial and continuing jobless claims as well as the latest news flow on companies' struggles to hire workers even as unemployment rate remains in elevated territory. Jack reports from the trenches of the over-the-counter interest rate swaps market and speculates on what it indicates about investors' trust in the Fed. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Crypto Wednesday: Michael Krieger, creator of Liberty Blitzkrieg, joins Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, to discuss their discovery of Bitcoin, the subculture, and the probability of a government shutdown. Krieger describes Bitcoin as a representation of a path or blueprint for humanity to follow: not just with money, but with nearly everything. They note that Bitcoin is decentralized, permissionless, and open-source, and that these three qualities are key to Bitcoin's success. Krieger also believes that Bitcoin is increasingly becoming more political, and he notes that the only 2 major political movements in this day and age are localism and Bitcoin. Recorded on March 18, 2021. Key Learnings: Krieger and Johnson believe that, although the current US infrastructure is still strong, citizens are looking to shift to more free and open sources in both their digital and physical lives. They believe that Bitcoin is better than any country's digital reserve currency because of its decentralized and open source nature. In their view the entire social, political, and economic organization of humans is being disrupted by Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May4,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to discuss Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s statement today on interest rates, Bank of America’s warning of transitory hyperinflation, and Q1 earnings. Greer shares his perspective on Yellen’s assertion on the possible need to raise interest rates and how it impacted markets today, and he and Bennington speculate on whether the Fed will change course later in the year. Greer also considers the trajectory of inflation in light of Bank of America’s statement about transitory hyperinflation to come and explores why he feels this time is different for price inflation. Finally, Bennington and Greer touch on Q1 earnings and Dogecoin’s meteoric rise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May3,2021: Real Vision managing Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down today’s market action in stocks, bonds, and commodities. Farley interprets Warren Buffett’s latest comments at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders’ meeting, and he and Harrison discuss Buffett’s statements on inflation and equity performance as well as the announcement of Buffett’s successor. Harrison evaluates recent moves in the bond market and shares his views on whether currencies or interest rates will be the “release valve” for volatility as equities grind higher. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: Luke Gromen, founder and president of FFTT, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss why he believes the strength or weakness of the dollar cannot be left to market forces. Gromen argues that, if left to market forces, the sheer size of the U.S. Government deficit would crowd out global dollar markets, sending the dollar skyrocketing with devastating consequences for global markets. Paired with recent rhetoric from Janet Yellen about not seeking a weak dollar has shaken Gromen's conviction in near-term dollar weakness and the subsequent knock-on effects. Gromen and Harrison will also discuss Gromen's views on the Treasury market and why he thinks rates will be allowed to rise until something cracks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: With bonds selling off alongside equities and the volatility of both asset classes rising, there is perhaps no better time to hear from The Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman. In this interview with Logica Capital Advisors partner, chief strategist, and PM Mike Green, Bassman outlines his view that this move higher in rates is the bond market finally moving towards the "right" price after a decade of interest rate suppression. Green and Bassman discuss the positive and negative consequences of higher rates, a steeper yield curve, and monetary and fiscal policies like negative interest rates and stimulus checks. They also touch on the current opportunities that Bassman sees and his prediction of inflationary impulse due to demographics sometime between 2023 and 2025. Harley Bassman has provided a slide deck to accompany this interview which can be found here: https://rvtv.io/3cai4CR and his commentary on convexity can be found here: https://rvtv.io/38eiXZS. Recorded on March 3, 2021. Key Learnings: Bassman believes interest rates have been kept artificially low, and the current sell-off in bonds is the market moving towards the "right" price. He also advocates for investors to be long convexity and believes that OTM calls on equities and long-dated options on interest rates are extremely cheap. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The. Interview: Legendary independent investor Jim Rogers joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to share his outlook on markets and the lessons he learned on his storied career. Rogers tells Pal that this current market environment, marked by record-low mutual fund cash levels and high levels of investing on margin, reminds him somewhat of the conditions prior to the "Black Monday" sell-off on October 19, 1987, which actually occurred on Rogers’ birthday. Rogers stresses the importance of thinking for oneself and argues that China is well-positioned to be the future engine of economic growth and technological progress. Recorded on February 23, 2021. Key learnings: Rogers is very constructive on commodities such as silver, oil, sugar, and various other agricultural opportunities. He notes speculative fervor in the current market, particularly in SPACs, but sees opportunities in China and Russia in addition to commodities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr30,2021: Real Vision crypto editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison to make sense of a crazy week in markets in this live edition of the Daily Briefing. Alongside Real Vision’s Jack Farley, they examine how the momentous earnings announcements, particularly in big tech, impact valuations. Ash gives his take on the latest goings-on in the crypto world, and Ed and Jack review what rising yields on European bonds means for the continents recovery as well as the U.S. dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr29,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura break down an action-packed day of earnings, economic data, and price movement. Farley shares updates on Amazon’s eye-popping earnings and the U.S. GDP growth figure of 6.4% (measured by annualized quarter-over-quarter change), and Nakamura makes sense of the equity market reaction to the seemingly rosy news coming from the economy as well as companies. They put in context the seemingly unstoppable surge in commodities such as lumber, oil, copper, and palladium with Nakamura providing key insight on declining volumes in the latter two commodities. He also looks at the bond market through the lens of the Japanese investor, somewhat attributing today’s sell-off in U.S. Treasurys to the Japanese holiday of “Golden Week.” Lastly, Nakamura looks at how the Japanese Stock Monex Group (8698 JT) is trading as a proxy to Bitcoin. To hear Nakamura’s full thoughts on Monex, check out today’s “Real Vision Daily Briefing Afterhours” on the Real Vision Exchange: rvtv.io/ExchAfterHours430. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr28,2021:Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes back Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to discuss his takeaways from today’s FOMC meeting. He expresses his concerns about Powell’s assessment of intensifying inflationary pressures as being only transitory and anticipates the bond market continuing to tighten over the next few months. Harrison and Boockvar then analyze the possibility of a fiscal cliff to come in the next year and the potential impact of tax increases on the economy as well as Boockvar’s perspective on the global economic recovery, the dollar, and how he’s positioning his trades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday:: Abra CEO Bill Barhydt joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss Abra, the future role of banks, and security. Barhydt describes Abra as moving towards the vision of being a full bank for cryptocurrency as it offers trading and investing in over a hundred crypto assets as well as the option to earn interest and borrow against them. Barhydt does not believe traditional banks will have a value proposition over the next 25 years and suggests that many of them will either become crypto-centric or disappear. He explains that Abra provides the full spectrum of security needs for their customers, covering "cold, warm, and hot" custody solutions. This means that Abra provides custody solutions for short term active trading (hot) and for long term storage of assets (cold) and everything in between. Recorded on March 1, 2021. Key Learnings: Abra aims to become a full bank for crypto assets. Barhydt believes most banks will become crypto-centric or die out, and Abra provides the full spectrum of custody services for their wide range of customers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr27,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss his current take on markets. Thornton explains the thin trading volume for this past month as sentiment remains high, and he explores Goldman Sachs’ newly published economic forecast, which cautions that there will be quarter-over-quarter GDP declines going forward even while the U.S. economic backdrop grows stronger. Bennington and Thornton also debrief Coinbase’s direct listing and his perspective on the growth of the crypto space, and they tackle Thornton’s thoughts on the Chinese tech sector and where he sees investible opportunities. Finally, he talks about energy as one of the best reopening bets out there and shares how he’s positioning his trades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr26,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the great tax debate happening in the US, infrastructure, and privacy. Ed and Ash touch on earnings as well as the current momentum in markets, and Ed explains why he sees the potential for consolidation or an absolute pullback down the line when assessing the level of heightened bullish sentiment. As the US focuses its attention toward the reopening, Ed and Ash also consider the future of deficit spending, examining Biden’s infrastructure bill and the potential capital gains tax hike. They then turn their attention to Google’s and Apple’s privacy initiatives and what sort of implications this has for the tech sector going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss whether inflation or reflation is on the horizon and how either would impact risk asset prices in 2021. Bianco explains that markets often react to the start of the nominal growth cycle similarly—whether inflation or reflation is occurring—as it's difficult to distinguish which phenomenon is leading economic growth. Even as the consensus is reflation, Bianco expresses his concern over inflation posing an issue. He also reflects on why the valuations of non-profitable tech stocks have risen so rapidly and expounds on how this is in part due to a significant shift in the investors’ preferences for trading in individual names. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: M. Taylor Fravel, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the MIT Security Studies Program, sits down with his long-time friend Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors to discuss a multitude of factors affecting China's strategic objectives. Although they examine certain aspects like demographics and the trajectory of growth for China's military, the focus of the interview is on geography and how China’s large number of land borders and their perception of being blocked off from the Pacific Ocean by U.S. military presence in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines makes the "first island chain" a potential flashpoint for conflict. Green and Fravel also discuss Green's hypothesis that Vladimir Putin and the Russians are the deftest participants in the triangular relationship between the U.S., China, and Russia. Recorded on February 25, 2021. Key Learnings: It wasn't too long ago that trade deal headlines were whipsawing markets back and forth. The outcome for U.S.-China relations is not set in stone, and investors need to be aware of the risks and opportunities presented by this conflict. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Nick Kokonas, founder and CEO of Tock, joins Jason Buck, co-founder and CIO of The Mutiny Fund, to share the lessons he has learned on his path from a derivatives trader, to a restauranter, and to a technologist and fine dining innovator. Kokonas recounts his beginnings in finance in Chicago's trading pits, where he witnessed firsthand the perils of selling tail-risk, or extremely out-of-the-money options. Kokonas and Buck exchange outlooks on options trading and "the Greeks," before Buck prompts Kokonas to share how he founded restaurants such as Trio, Roister, and Alinea (the only restaurant in all of Chicago to retain three Michelin stars). Kokonas shares how identifying and solving the multitude of problems that befall the restaurant industry let him to create Tock. Recorded on March 19, 2021. Key learnings: Most restaurants waste a tremendous amount of time and money, and Kokonas uses the skills he gained as an options trader to spot inefficiencies and innovate in common practices such as dropping checks, making reservations, and ordering ingredients. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr,23-2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley for a live talk on the biggest market-moving stories as the week comes to a close. Harrison covers credit and shares additional thoughts on “The Great Biden Tax Grab.” Bennington makes sense of today’s economic data and takes a look at the cooling-off of crypto prices as well as the widening spread between the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and its net asset value. Farley looks at price action in commodities such as lumber, oil, as well as the recent shocking news from Kimberly Clark that the bull market in toilet paper could be over. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Comments (16)

Amer Mohiuddin

this Hendry fellow is a blowhard

Jan 24th
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Amir GeramiAsl

I'm listening as a derivatives trader from Iran. Keep up the good work.

Sep 19th
Reply

Scott Mericle

Fascinating

Aug 29th
Reply

Sakira Cadman

this 30% decline in electronic demand is fake news.

Oct 17th
Reply

None

does the interviewer need to give vocal feedback at the end of every sentence? mmhm?

Oct 8th
Reply

Paul Bostock

Bring back adventures in finance. It was so much better. I used to listen religiously, now I hardly bother.

Mar 11th
Reply

Hussain Yousafzai

Great podcast! Keep it up.

Oct 26th
Reply

Dominic Kirby

Iu iuu Il

Jul 1st
Reply

Max

The new podcast format is substantially worse than before. It seems real vision is trying to target millenials but as a millenial this podcast is small on information and big on unnecessary commentary. Older episodes were great. Unfortunately have reduced my listening

Jul 1st
Reply

Artur Gorbenko

lottery tickets can be bought at stops like the Tesla stops. unless the future vechiles require no stops to a long distance trip then I would agree with this episode.

Jun 22nd
Reply

Artur Gorbenko

too much of messing around. can you please more more focused on the topic. keep it fun, but we're listening for the information first.

Jun 22nd
Reply

Alden Sparks

Miss the old format. While the new one is still interesting it's a lot less in depth and geared to a more general audience. Anyway you could throw in some of the RealVision TV interviews in just an audio format?

Jun 1st
Reply (1)

Bill Slikkerveer

Really, the format is a knock off of sorts of NPR programs but not done well. While listening to long shortbecame tedious, the older format better.

May 18th
Reply

space_junk

Don't listen to other commenter on this podcast. It's more entertaining than a dancing dwarf. If you do one thing this year it's listen to this podcast. Unless you are a Tesla fan boy.

Jan 12th
Reply

rocco rossinni

Worst show ever. Kyle Bass sounds like an egotistical, arrogant ass. What a bore. What happened to long short and all the other things that made this show so enjoyable.

Sep 14th
Reply
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