Redefining Energy

We bring in Nick Wayth, CEO of Energy Institute (EI), for the release of the 73rd Edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy. The Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy™ analyses data on world energy markets from the prior year.Previously produced by bp, the Review has been providing timely, comprehensive and objective data to the energy community since 1952. The Strategic Review is now a collaboration between the EI, KPMG, Kearney and Heriot University. Five key stories emerge from the 2023 data:Record global energy consumption, with coal and oil pushing fossil fuels and their emissions to record levelsSolar and wind push global renewable electricity generation to another record levelOngoing Ukraine conflict cements gas rebalancing in Europe  Dependence on fossil fuels in major advanced economies is likely to have peakedGrowth economies struggle to curb fossil fuel growth, but renewables accelerate in China   Although we disagree on the message and question the concept of Primary Energy (super misleading), we salute the consistency and comprehensiveness of that Report. Keep them coming.https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review

UK is at the nexus of the subsea interconnector’s new economy. Great Britain is connected to Continental Europe by 8 interconnectors representing up to 15% of its power consumption.Subsea cables are now a growing industry because of the benefits they bring to the grids, such as resiliency, capacity, lower prices, and renewable energy balancing. Alongside batteries and pumped Hydro, interconnectors are the best flexible green infrastructure currently available on our road to net-zero.How has the technology evolved over the recent years? What are the economics in terms of CAPEX and OPEX? What are the revenue models? Is there a role for infrastructure investor? What are the technological challenges? How are the permitting and regulatory frameworks? How far and how deep will we go in the development of interconnectors, as we start hearing about transcontinental projects. To answer all those questions, we have invited Rebecca Sedler, aka “The Mother of Interconnectors” (reference to Games of Throne). After a long career at E.ON and EDF, Rebecca is Managing Director of the Interconnectors business for UK National Grid. We will start by the Viking Link, her more recent achievement, linking GB to Denmark with a 750km cable and only 3.7% loss. Finally, we will talk about the bright future of subsea interconnectors.“We are going to America”  www.nato-l.org We thank Amundi for supporting our show. EU Largest Asset Manager and leader in Green investing.

Laurent interviews Georgios Stassis, PPC’S CEO, during Eurelectric Power Summit 24.PPC, the Greek Utility, is a remarkable turnaround story: from a soviet-style dinosaur a few years ago, PPC has become a thriving forward-looking profitable modern Utility.With Georgios, we discuss the investment in renewables, the phase out of lignite, digitisation, the investment in new segments (Datacenters, E Mobility, Demand Response…) and share an overview of regional integration with interconnectors and the successful acquisition of Enel Romania.And, to crown it all, a Quiz: Eurelectric or AC/DC?

In April, we did Ep129 Minutes about China and announced the interview with a real expert. Here it is. With David Fishman, an American based in Shanghai, we dig deep into China’s Energy Transition. We try to reconcile the rise of renewables and the rise of coal use. We try to decipher what is decided locally and nationally. We investigate what is the result of command-and-control measures vs market forces. We cover wind, solar, batteries, EVs. Our goal is not to give good points or bad points, our mission is to share with our listeners the fascinating but complex picture of what is happening in China. And we debunk a lot of the cliches that we read in the Western media.To paraphrase Churchill: “A riddle wrapped in mystery inside an enigma”.As the US and the EU are becoming more and more wary and protectionist in relation to China’s progresses in clean technologies, we try to stay neutral when it comes to subsidies, “overcapacity” and real advances made by China Inc.Beyond those cliches, we talk about human capital and the fundamental concern about energy security which are powerful drivers boosting the Chinese energy transition. In David’s opinion, China is turning the corner on Coal and Fuels, and we might already have seen peak emissions. And we like that!  For institutions which would like to partner with our show, please ask for our media kit.  We thank Amundi for suppiorting our show. --------------------------------David Fishman is an economic consultant at the Lantau Group specializing in the Chinese power sector. His work includes regulatory and commercial intelligence for Chinese nuclear power, solar, wind, and distributed energy markets. His specific experience includes Chinese power market and policy intelligence and forecasting, solar and wind pricing forecasts, renewable asset transactional due diligence, China business matchmaking, and green power procurement planning and execution for multinationals with factories in China.   Check David Fishman on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china-electricity-2023-statistics-summary-david-fishman-mknic?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via

Last week, Laurent was in Athens for the spectacular Eurelectric Summit (we will talk more about it in 2 weeks’ time, with a special Episode) meanwhile, we bring in our friend Jan-Michael Hess, organiser of the Berlin EcoSummit 4-5 June to discuss Clean Tech and his annual gathering of more than 100 Start-Ups and hundreds of investors.If you don’t have your tickets (yet) https://ecosummit.net/

"McKinsey, BCG and S&P Global Commodity Insights project electricity demand tied to data centers to increase at a CAGR of 15% through 2030." “Booming AI demand threatens global electricity supply (FT)”. Media and consultants have recently raised the alarm about the unquenchable energy thirst of AI and datacentres.  Can we believe those predictions or is it another scaremongering wave like we saw 15 years ago, when prophets predicted that the internet would soon consume 50% of the world power?Laurent and Gerard prefer to go directly to the source. So, we have invited Michael Terrell, Senior Director Energy and Climate at Google. Google is one of the Top 5 purchasers of Green Electricity in the world, and Michael is one of the key architects for providing 24/7 green power to their 28 datacenters around the world.With Michael, we analyse why datacenters consume so much energy. We also discuss why the overall grid has not melted down despite ominous predictions a decade ago, as energy efficiency improvements have been spectacular. We talk about fostering the purchase of green energy and especially 24/7. We discuss new tech, whether software (Tapestry) or hardtech (geothermal, nuclear, LDES) and why Google and others BigTech are fostering them. Finally, we discuss the development of AI and its impact on the future demand.All in all, a great discussion but more importantly a very optimistic dialogue, where we see that we – the Energy Transition Brotherhood – are a force for good and we will defeat – easily – the old guard of fossil fuel lobbyists and scaremongers.   We thank Amundi for supporting our show

We bring in the star of the week, Ember’s Dave Jones, to discuss the Global Electricity Review 2024, published last week.Main take aways (thank you Nat Bullard): Renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, biomass) are now 30% of global electricity supply.Solar generation increased 23% yoy; wind 10%.Fossil fuel generation increased 0.8%.If not for a decline in hydro production, renewables would have met almost the entirety of the global increase in electricity demand.We are entering a new era of electricity with three great flexors acting on a complex and growing supply mix:Continued growth of wind+solar increasing global clean electron supplyVariations in hydro and nuclear productionDemand driven by electrification, data, and global wealth https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2024/ We partner with EcoSummit Berlin, the annual unique gathering for startups and investors to discuss to decarbonise our economy and save our climate. Berlin 4-5 June. If you don’t have your tickets (yet) https://ecosummit.net/Finally Happy Anniversary to Paul Chapman and his excellent podcast HC Insider who is about to change name to HC Commodities podcast. 200th episode. Really if you are interested in Commodities markets, from Oil to Power to Metals to Ags, Trading , they are the best.

Distribution grids are facing new challenges. On the one hand, they experience a growth of local demand, with EV charging, heat pumps and datacenters. On the other, they must accommodate with the fast deployment of decentralised energy such as rooftop solar and batteries. How to reconcile those challenges while maintaining grid stability? And how can Utilities, hooked up on rates and CAPEX start thinking differently and adopt new technologies? Beyond the regulatory changes and technical investments, some cultural shifts need to be implemented. And a lot of solutions are digital.That’s the job of our guest, Robert Denda. Robert is CEO of Gridspertise, a new company carved out two years ago out of ENEL. Previously, he was Head of Innovation & Industrialization (since June 2021) at the Enel Global Infrastructure and Networks and Head of Network Technology and Innovation (since June 2015) at the same business line of the Enel Group, leading the development of and application of digital grid technologies at the largest privately-owned international operator of power distribution grids, serving 74 million customers.  Gridspertise today is an independent company jointly controlled by is a 50/50 JV between Enel and investment fund CVC Capital Partners, valued almost 1bnEUR, headquartered in Italy but also present in Spain, Brazil, USA, Germany and Scandinavia the Nordics. Its Enterprise Value was valued 625M EUR at the time of the transaction, with potential deferred payments that could bring the enterprise value up to 1bn EUR.Our conversation encompasses several themes, from smart meters to sensors, from cyber security to AI, from performance to business trends. Solutions are being implemented daily to speed up the Energy Transition.   We thank Amundi, EU largest Asset Manager, for supporting the show

We hear conflicting messages regarding the status of the EV market. On the bright side, IEA predicts 17mEV to be sold this year, EV and Hybrids reach 50% market share in China for Q1, more than 500 EV models are currently on the market. On the dark side, Tesla and BYD deliveries were down in Q1_24, Tesla revenues were down 9% compared to Q1_23 and the price war has cut the EPS in 2.Has Tesla lost its mojo or will Elon refocus and reboot. Lots of announcements, but also a 10% cut in the workforce, and a depressed share price. Meanwhile the “Oil Street Journal” and other publications have been repeating ad nauseum (but falsely) that the EV Story is over.In fact, EV sales in Q1 2024 were 21% higher than Q1 2023. China led the way with at 31% growth with the US and Canada at 13%, and EU and EFTA trailing behind at a 7%. Removal of the BEV subsidies in Germany showing their full impact there.There are also a lot of questions about protectionism, as Elon Musk just declared that “Chinese automakers would "demolish" most of the world's other car companies if there were no trade barriers. Our observation is generally that the Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world,"To discuss this and the future of the EV market, Laurent brought James Carter. James is a friend of the show and one of the top Auto experts in the world based in Toronto, Canada.And Gerard will be back with us next week. He was simply too busy successfully selling our German Rooftop Solar company Febesol to Thermondo. But that is a story for another day.The pod has just been named number 1 Energy Transition show. Thank you, guys. We love you all.--------PS: when referring to our friend Roger Atkins, Laurent said “Shanghai Auto Show”. Oooops its was Beijing Auto China from which he brings back wondrous stories, including a meeting with the legend Robin Zheng, CATL founder.

Laurent and Gerard have a rapid overview of what’s going on regarding the Energy Transition in China and its political implication in the West.Record production of this, record production of that, overcapacity everywhere…We babble a lot, rant a bit, and conclude that we need to invite a real expert on the show.

What is the value of green electrons? Hard to say. Depends where, depends when. What is sure is that, in view of recent regulations and corporate commitments, they must be tracked.From an annual basis, we are now moving to an hourly basis, under the thrust of corporate initiatives like the GhGProtocol, RE-100 and EnergyTag. Behind this movement, BigTech such as Microsoft and Google see a need to track those green electrons as their energy consumption is on the way up… and it has to 24/7.Enter new innovative digital companies that are providing those complex and data-hungry services. Some platforms go even further, proposing to trade the green attributes of electrons. Renewabl is one of them.Lead by the charismatic JP Cerda, Renewabl is one of the most advanced of those startups. The company is the recent winner of the "2024 Energy Tech Challengers Award" in the FinTech categoryJP Cerda has a long history of trading green commodities, first at Shell and Orsted. Then a few years ago he managed to create Zeigo, the premier PPA auction platforms which he then successfully sold in 2022 to Schneider Electric. JP and his team really know what they are doing when it comes to designing and developing leading edge digital market places in the green sector.  We thank Amundi for supporting our show Disclosure: Laurent is an investor in Renewabl  A good article on the GoO market https://auroraer.com/media/guarantees-of-origin-market-set-for-growth-trajectory-projected-to-reach-3-7-bn-e-by-2030/

This week, Gerard and Laurent have been invited to a private event organized by Aquila Capital in March 2024, during the Global Infrastructure Conference, where they debate with Markus Wandt, CIO Aquila if “Renewables are still an Infrastructure play?”

The main hindrance to the development of renewables is the connection queue. Basically, grid operators tell developers “Sorry guys, we’re full”. A recent study by RMI has proven that this is simply not true. Grid operators are either too conservative or not incentivized to take more load. Old solutions. Old thinking.Grid Enhancing Technologies (GETs) are hardware and software solutions that are deployed within the existing transmission system, helping increase the capacity, flexibility, and efficiency of the current grid. They can perform functions such as rerouting power flows to avoid congested lines and providing data on real-time conditions that could enable more power to flow through a line when conditions allow — thus increasing our ability to best utilize the transmission infrastructure we already have.But beyond a better digital management, new technologies of cables are emerging, incorporating the best Material Science has to offer.  New conductor technologies could triple grid capacity with structures in the existing rights of way, while also reducing line loss by half.To talk about GETs and new conductors, we bring in Jason Huang, Co-founder and CEO of TS Conductor Corporation. Jason is PHD in material science and started his career in the aviation industry, working on civilian and military programs such as A350 and F35. TSConductor, supported by Breakthrough Ventures, NextEra and UK National Grid, is now rolling out a revolutionary new technology that will debottleneck the Grid and speed up the Energy Transition.  We thank our new partner AMUNDI, largest European Asset Manager and really committed to the Energy Transition   PS: 2nd minute - Laurent got “TO” wrong: it’s Topography Optimisation, not Technology OptimisationThe RMI report is here:https://rmi.org/insight/analyzing-gets-as-a-tool-for-increasing-interconnection-throughput-from-pjms-queue/The story about Amazon and AI is here https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/08/amazon-says-us-utility-can-complete-power-flow-studies-in-hours-not-months/

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about the 3 big energy gatherings that happened this week. Houston (CERAweek), Bilbao (WindEurope) and Berlin (Global Infrastructure Summit). Laurent and Gerard were in Berlin and report what they saw and heard.In a simple sentence à la John Wick “Yes, I think I’m back”

“It’s hard to play a good game when you have been served weak cards”. This is the perennial challenge of Japan when it comes to the Energy Transition. And the game is getting harder when your two main choices, nuclear and hydrogen, are proving extremely costly in a world of cheap renewables.How robust is a business model based on a protected internal market with high margins and limited competition allowing Japan Inc. to expand abroad at super competitive prices, but stifling innovation and diversification? Japan is “Prisoner of its geography” (to quote Tim Marshall); thankfully its answer has been a world class level of engineering allowing to partially overcome its shortcomings.And Gerard, during his recent trip to Japan, has witnessed some extraordinary achievements in the energy transition in the downstream sector, with extreme energy efficiency, retail innovations, and digital developments.We have the pleasure to welcome Shuichiro Kawamura, who heads one of the rare investments’ funds focusing on the Energy Transition. Established in 2006, Energy & Environment Investment (EEI) is Japan's first VC firm solely dedicated to the energy and environment sectors. They support startups with innovative technologies and services in this space, aiming to drive sustainable growth and positive global impact. As of Q1_24, the AUM of EEI is around US$500MM, with more than 130 portfolio companies. There is no easy formula in Japan. Only the smarts will survive.We thank our friends and partners AQUILA CAPITAL for supporting our show.

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about Conferences / Exhibition that they recently attended and what they have learned there. Gerard was in Germany’s E-World while Laurent was in London’s Energy Storage Summit.And they act as mirror opposites: "back in business" in Germany while the storage in London realises that the Champagne year of 2022 cannot easily be repeated. The storage industry nevertheless rejoices at the fall in price of batteries while the classic Utilities are being challenged by new innovations such as “balcony solar”

The two limiting factors for a faster deployment of EVs are the price of vehicles and “range anxiety”. While the former is being addressed by an ever-growing number of cheaper models available on the market, the latter is also experiencing a revolution.You would believe that such an opportunity would be grasped by Utilities. Surprise! They didn’t move. Oil companies have started investing, but at their slow pace. In the Automotive sector, only Tesla has seized on the challenge, and how brilliantly! So, the passivity of incumbents has created an overture for talented and dynamic entrepreneurs. We have decided to invite one of them.Our guest is Toddington Harper, CEO of Gridserve, a leading UK charging network. Gerard, Laurent and Toddington discuss all recent developments in EV charging from technology to software to interoperability. We are going to talk about Electric Super Hubs, Electric Retail Hubs and the industry-leading Electric Forecourts®.In the coming years, the whole EV charging landscape will totally change and petrol stations will be looked at like we look at CDs and Cassette Tapes. At the heart of the revolution, focus on a consumer-centric approach and a new way of thinking holistically called “sun-to-wheel”. Charging is not a commodity, it’s a service, and only the best service providers will emerge as winners.We thank AQUILA CAPITAL for supporting the show.

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about three great reports that have recently been published and deliver some world-class data about past achievements, current status and the direction of travel. As a sign of things to come, European Carbon has lost 36% since the beginning of the year.We are here saluting Ember and their power/emission statistics – European Electricity review https://ember-climate.org/ https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2024/Then the new bible, from Nat Bullard, available here. Everything Climate and the Energy Transition in 200 slides. https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentationsAnd for the battery buffs, the encyclopaedia in everything batteries, which comes from the Volta Foundation https://www.volta.foundation/annual-battery-report

To discuss everything that’s going on in the PPA market (and a lot of things are happening), Gerard and Laurent bring back the excellent Luca Pedretti, CEO and co-founder Pexapark. Pexapark is the leading swiss-based intelligence platform on PPA in Europe.With Luca, we have an extensive conversation about the recent evolutions in the PPA market. Trends, duration, size, shapes, types of contracts, risk-sharing arrangements... We try to lay out how the market prices the following risks: capture risks, cannibalization risks, curtailment risks, settlement risks, credit risks…Then the discussion moves to the Tech titans and their unquenchable thirst for green power are reshaping the market for green electrons. How new innovations like hourly Green Certificates (GoOs, REGOS) are appearing and adding some transparency in the price discovery process?We finally debate about those soviet-era industrial policies in term of fuel choices (nuclear, hydrogen) that seem to ignore the permanent technological innovations (batteries), the need for flex, and the power of the market signals. A lot of those themes are also detailed in Pexapark annual PPA report available belowWe thank our friends and partners of Aquila Capital for supporting the show. Link to Pexapark 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐏𝐏𝐀 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 2024 Reporthttps://pexapark.com/european-ppa-market/ In this report you’ll find:💡 A 360° 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐨𝐟 𝐏𝐏𝐀 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥-𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 in 2023: Top PPA countries, buyers & sellers, and more thought-provoking data-driven insights💡 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 on the rising: Hybrid PPAs, 24/7 green procurement, PPAs for Green H2 Production, Multi-buyer PPAs💡 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 setting the rhythm: PPA pricing, market fundamentals and risks, regulatory environment, CfDs vs PPAs💡 Distilment of our 𝐓𝐨𝐩 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 2024

This week, Gerard is out, so Laurent does the Minutes with Michael Barnard, host of our sister show Redefining Energy – Tech.On the menu this week, an overview of the decarbonisation of shipping. What will be electrified? What role for Hydrogen, Green Ammonia, Methanol and Biodiesel? And the answers are hybrid and multi-fuels.Links to Michael’s articles on the subject in Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/05/how-will-climate-action-change-the-face-of-global-shipping/https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/29/hydrogen-half-truths-keep-shipping-fuel-hopes-afloat/https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/11/different-segments-of-the-shipping-market-have-different-climate-fixes/https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/17/how-much-shipping-can-just-use-batteries-for-energy/https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/20/shipping-still-has-efficiency-levers-to-pull-for-climate-action/https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/27/what-energy-will-ships-that-cant-electrify-use-including-wind/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2024/01/05/2023-was-year-of-methanol-for-shipping-but-that-likely-wont-last/