Redefining Energy

Gerard delivered a master class at TedXBerlin about the four forces driving the Energy Revolution Solar, Batteries, Electronics and China. It is called “Welcome to the Era of Energy Disruption”  An excellent introduction for tomorrow’s world.   You can watch Gerard on YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXwGvLj4rak

Just Climate is a 1.5bnUSD vehicle established by Generation Investment with the mission to invest in the highest impact solutions that can radically reduce or remove emissions. They occupy the “missing middle” between VC and PE-Infra allowing growth, FOAK and deployment. Their positioning comes on the heels of VCs such as Prelude Ventures, Energy Impact Partners or Breakthrough Energy Ventures.Laurent and Gerard invite its co-CIO, Shaun Kingsbury, the “inventor” of North Sea Offshore Wind when he was at the head of UK Green Investment Bank.We talk about the investment thesis and its portfolio. Steel? Cement? Electro-mobility? Gerard discusses the general environment when it comes to Climate Tech (not great) and wonders if the third wave of Green Investment is not hitting a wall after years of exuberance.Shaun concludes that there is no future for climate innovations if they don’t deliver attractive risk-adjusted financial returns. There will be short term bumps, but the long term is bright.

Northvolt, once the poster child of the European battery industry, shocked the world last month by filling for Chapter 11 in the United States. The Swedish battery start-up burned through billions of euros in capital from investors such as Volkswagen, Goldman Sachs, and others, with little to show for it. Laurent and Gerard conduct a postmortem on this debacle of epic proportions.With access to confidential sources within the company and its supply chain, they arrived at the same conclusions as Robin Zheng, CEO of CATL—the world’s leading battery manufacturer—who stated: “They have the wrong design, the wrong process, and the wrong equipment. How can they scale up? So almost all mistakes together.”The root causes of Northvolt’s failure? Hubris and culture. What’s next for the European battery industry? It’s time to face reality: partner with the best or risk failure.Northvolt’s collapse is a tragedy for its believers and a costly loss for investors. However, the industry continues to grow at a breakneck pace, and with pragmatism, there is a path forward.

Deploying solar and heat pumps in the residential sector is all well and good, but many attempts to scale have unfortunately failed.Beyond the king Octopus, Simon Phelan and his company Hometree have managed to become an unlikely challenger in the deployment of the Energy transition inside home. And Simon has achieved this feat by flipping the system onto his head.Hometree is a company that offers its customers home emergency breakdown insurance, plus installations and financing for energy efficient hardware. The achievements of Hometree are truly remarkable: 100,000 homes covered, a network 5,000 engineers, 100mEUR VC raised (Legal & General, Blackrock), 400mEUR securitisation of behind the meter asset portfolio (Barclays and CPPIB).How has the Hometree system cracked the code of home energy decarbonisation?They don’t “push” a product or a technology, they “pull” the client towards the best decarbonised solution. It starts with insurance, making sure that your heating system always work and thus creating long term relationships with clients.Then comes the financing with fully wrapped solutions that lower the prices; the financing is then securitised to investors. And it is a good risk. Finally, having boots on the ground to serve clients to repair, maintain or build.The eco-system is so versatile and powerful that all Utilities are looking to partner with Hometree … in the secret hope of staying relevant against the Octopus juggernaut.  We call Hometree: “the Best of the Rest”.

Laurent goes live to Baku COP29 to discuss with Bruce “Almighty” Douglas, CEO Global Renewable Alliance and tireless promoter of Renewable Energy.He is the one who coins the famous “Triple Renewables” rallying cry, and has been rewarded by joining the precious list of TIME 100 Climate leaders.With Bruce, Laurent dives into COP. Shambolic, Rudderless and Essential nevertheless. The world of renewables is at the centre stage, dealing with diplomats who are doing politics without a calculator while policy makers are busy inventing more alphabet soup concepts while ignoring geopolitics.COP is the summary of the world’s contradictions. COPs are useless and irreplaceable at the same time.

As COP29 begins, the ripple effects of the re-election of Donald Trump are reaching the shores of the Caspian Sea.  COP28 welcomed 85,000 delegates, within which a significant contingent of Oil lobbyists. COP29 is supposed to be the “Finance COP”, whatever that means, but all major head of states will not participate.What to expect from COP29?   Are COP still useful? Is it the correct format? Who is really committed and who is just paying lip service to fighting Climate Change?  Those questions and more with Lord Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) a global coalition of companies committed to achieving a net zero global economy by 2050. Lord Turner is a leading British businessman and academic, former Chairman of the Financial Services Authority (2008-13). From 2008-2012 Lord Turner was the first chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee.

First, Gerard is sorry, he couldn’t make it as he was on a ship in the Irish Sea, and his Starlink wouldn’t connect. So, it is just Laurent interviewing a young superstar, Peter Paul van Voorst, CEO of the mobile battery management platform Skoon.Skoon, based in Rotterdam, is now seven years old and manages more than 1,000 mobile batteries in 14 countries. Mobile batteries range from 1kw to 1MW and are either on trailers or inside 10ft containers.With Peter Paul, Laurent analyses this new segment of the Storage market. How did the technology evolve, what are the established use-cases (Construction, Film sets, Events) but also the new ones (Support to distribution networks).In recent years, not only has the hardware evolved (widespread use of LFP), but there has been an absolute revolution in the software layers, from BMS (Battery Management System) to EMS (Energy Management System) to now the overall fleet management. Those progresses are not only from a technical perspective but also from an economic and environmental perspectives.How this whole system works, grows and provide immense services to the Electrification of the Economy by providing the ultimate flexibility (time and space).

Gerard and Laurent welcome Kristian Ruby, secretary general of Eurelectric, about their new report entitled “Power Barometer – Zeroing in on Electrification”.  To quote the IEA, we enter in the “Age of Electrification” where electrification rate is going to accelerate significantly.We have an extensive conversation about the good news (growth of renewables, energy security progress in response to Russian aggression) and the not so good news (flat demand, as the new power usages – transportation, heating – don’t grow as fast as anticipated; demand reduction or destruction). We discuss the impact of counterproductive taxation of various sources of energy, European competitiveness, the development of behind the meter energy as well as great initiatives such as the North Sea Wind Power Hub”.A very rich state of play.And Gerard apologises for the poor quality of his audio as he was in car driving in France while carrying his precious collection of rare whiskies from Berlin to Dublin.  Link to Eurelectric report: Power Barometer – Zeroing inhttps://powerbarometer.eurelectric.org/  Join us at the Energy Storage Awards 2024https://storageawards.solarenergyevents.com/

What are VPP? Virtual Power Plants. What are DER? Distributed Energy Resources?As the grid becomes more intermittent while the load is growing, those VPP/DER platforms provide a critical role by shedding demand, sometimes for a few minutes, to alleviate stress on the Grids.VPPs can avoid starting polluting peakers via pre-agreed and targeted demand reduction, shift consumption via batteries and even act in in Frequency response market. And System Operators are willing to pay a decent price to have access to those resources.That is the mission of Dana Guernsey. Dana is the CEO of Voltus, a Boulder-CO based leading DER technology platform and virtual power plant operator connecting distributed energy resources to electricity markets. As interconnection queues lengthen and capacity cost explode, are we on the dawn of a crazy development of VPPs.Dana explains that while working for Walmart or fleet of Electric School buses, she can reduce Voltus’ clients power bills by up to 20% while keeping their core services unchanged. We are going to talk about technology, heating and cooling management, AI… and lasagna.A deep dive into the future.--------------------------------------------------------------VERY IMPORTANT: We are doing a Q&A Episode in NovemberAsk us whatever you want!!!  Send your questions: info@redefining-energy.com

While Gerard is doing his rock star concert at TedTalk Berlin, Laurent has invited an old friend, Roger Atkins, Top Voice on EVs to discuss the people behind the EV revolution.  Roger has a 40 year career in the Auto industry (half of them in EVs) and his cowboy hat makes him a fixture of great EV shows around the world. Roger talk about his encounters with Robin Zeng -  CEO CATL, Wang Chuanfu – founder BYD, Elon Musk, Jack Cheng - co-founder NIO, Bob Galyen – ex GM and CTO CATL,  Li Shufu – founder Geely and a lot of other formidable people pushing the EV revolution.We also talk about the people we admire Michael Dunne, Robert Llewellyn and Simon Moores. Thanks to them, we see clearer.  And in EVs as in any sector, culture eats policy every morning for breakfast.--------------------------------------------------------------VERY IMPORTANT: We are doing a Q&A Episode in NovemberAsk us whatever you want!!!  Send your questions: info@redefining-energy.com

The battery infrastructure is currently growing 3x faster than the solar industry. Records are beaten daily: in August 2024, for the first time, Chinese battery factories passed the 100GWh production mark. We are seeing industry giants consolidate their leadership while hopes of alternative technologies or promising start ups are being squashed.The prices are collapsing monthly, partly due to cheaper inputs, technological improvements and larger volumes, not dissimilar to what happened in recent years to the solar industry. Is LFP the winning chemistry or is there still a future for NMC?Laurent and Gerard bring Dr Engelke, Chair of Battery Associates, to try to make sense of it all. This young German company has been developing a world class expertise and how uses it to train the future work force is how to build a Gigafactory and how to optimize it. With clients like Tesla, VW and CATL, Battery Associates is in the thick of it. GenZ is defying all politicians by creating a transnational spirit of collaboration between Continents to promote a faster and more efficient future.Because in the end, it is all about Human Capital. China has benefited from our technology for decades, let’s not be shy and emulate their playbook. It will be more efficient in the long term than lobbying regulators, whine and ask for tariffs and subsidies. Despite the roller coaster, never forget that in a fast-growing market, short term demand is generally overstated, while long term demand is generally understated.  -----We don’t often recommend other podcasts/YouTube (I know we should). If you are interested in Batteries, please listen/view this interview of Robin Zheng, CEO of CATL.Really fascinating https://youtu.be/5VIXjjw4u9A?si=enaf8fls2F82YxoXhttps://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/catl-ceo-founder-robin-zeng-the-journey-to-market/id1614211565?i=1000669887553

Gerard is live on the Wisdom Tree Commodity Exchange podcast and delivers a masterclass on how to invest in the Energy Transition: Renewables, Equity, Innovation, Commodities.  -----Laurent will be keynote speaker at ReSource Amsterdam 24-25/10/24. Come say hello https://resource-platform.eu/events/re-source-2024-event/  -----  We also salute the latest edition of Mycle Schneider World Nuclear Industry Status Report. Essential to understand what is going on in the Nuclear Industry beyond the headlines and the lobbying – More than 500 pages of data and facts.https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2024

ExxonMobil forecasts 2050 Oil demand be the same as today. We believe that they are just “talking their books.”To discuss the future of the Energy system as well as the fight against Climate Change, we bring in a very respected expert and friend of the show: Kingsmill Bond, Energy Strategist at RMI. Kingsmill has been digging deep into the data and has realized that the fossil fuel cohort simply cannot fathom the speed of the Energy Transition.Gerard and Laurent have a lengthy debate about the trends, the adoption of clean energy, not only in the OECD, but also what is now referred as the “Global South” and deliver an optimist message about the future.  In the present, the pessimists always sound smarter, but in the long-term optimists are always right.------- RMI is a global NGO transforming the global energy system to secure a clean, prosperous, zero-carbon future for all.RMI:  https://rmi.org/the-world-re-energized/RMI report: https://rmi.org/insight/the-cleantech-revolution/Nick Eyre work: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12053-021-09982-9?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

As Europe has reached 270GW wind power (vs 150GW USA), corresponding to a value of 500bnEUR, we dig into the value of those assets. Gerard being out, Laurent brought his friend Mortimer Menzel, Managing Partner of Augusta Co, one of the most seasoned investment bankers in the wind sector.After describing the past gloom (interest rates, inflation, supply chain, Ukraine), we analyse the fundamentals of the market and turn out to be very optimistic for the years ahead, both onshore and offshore.  Mortimer talentedly explains how the risks and markets have evolved over time and what impact they will have on future valuations. Overall, he is bullish as ever.  -------------------- I will be chairing a free Seminar on the future of Green Energy procurement with Ofgem, KPMG, S&P Global and Renewabl, the award-winning platform I seat on the Board of, at the law firm Wedlake Bell, on Thursday 3/10 at 4pm. In the City of London. Super technical.Link to Register.   Renewabl day: The future of renewable energy procurement · Luma

As wind and solar become ubiquitous, the value of hydropower goes up. Hydropower is becoming the ultimate clean energy, as it is flexible and easily dispatchable.Hydropower is concentrated in certain geographies (China, Brazil, Canada) and is almost entirely developed by State-Owned Utilities that can stomach and support the very long construction time. Bost costs and value should be measured in decades, not in years.Unfortunately, Climate Change is impacting the reliability of hydro; we have recently witnessed  a succession of dry years and wet years, which have created stresses in the American West, Brazil and China… So, how to make the best of it? How to optimize this valuable resource?That is the life’s mission of Janice Goodenough, CEO of HYDROGRID. With a master’s degree in Applied Mathematics and over 15 years of experience in the hydropower sector, Janice Goodenough is a dedicated advocate for leveraging the complete potential of hydropower amidst the evolving energy landscape. HYDROGRID Insight is an integrated water management & production planning platform for proactive hydro teams, providing comprehensive, predictive capabilities such as plant monitoring, predictive production planning, optimal trading, as well as constraint and maintenance management under a single hood.We love hydro, but they need to stop snoozing. Wake up!  We thank AMUNDI for supporting the show Transcripts   https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

“Summer has come and passed / The innocent can never last / Wake me up when September ends”. Like John Wick, Laurent thinks he is back.So we have a very energetic Minutes to start September. With Gerard, the co-hosts focus on one of the key trends of 2024 which they call “Batteries, the Great Consolidation”. A lot of great experts are helping shape our view.To name a few Aaron Wade, Tom Tsogt, Cormac O’Laoire, Christopher Chico, Chris Berry, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence/Rho Motion (Iola Hughe  and all Simon Moores’ team). We are thankful for their relentless drive to show us the future.So, what is the “Great Consolidation” in Batteries. First consolidation in the supplier's landscape, with CATL and BYD trashing the competition and indirectly eliminating a lot of promising startups (We list the cancelled Gigafactories). Then, consolidation in Chemistry, it’s all about LFP now. Finally consolidation in form factor, with prismatic becoming the staple.At the end of the episode, we salute the King of Solar in Pakistan, Sulaiman ur Rehman.And also invite on our podcast Mr Faraz Ahmad, one of the Top Energy guy at Amazon, as we are very curious about his attempts to rewrite the rules for accounting for Carbon Emissions. We want to know more. Faraz, you are welcome!    Transcripthttps://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

How to decarbonise buildings? That’s an important topic because that sector accounts for 37% of all emissions, making it one of the three pillars of decarbonisation next to electricity generation and transportation.Progress has been mixed. If lighting is an incredible success, heating and cooling remain a complex proposition with certain countries adopting new technologies much faster than others. Energy efficiency is sometimes a hard sell, as pay back periods can be counted in decades. Energy efficiency can be active, passive, “behind the meter” or at system’s level. Laurent and Gerard wander though that landscape with Vincent Petit, who runs Schneider Electric Sustainability Research Institute. Vincent has overseen the company’s prospective on the Climate and Energy Transition since 2017. Digital and behind the meter (solar, batteries) open new horizons even if regulators get confused between sticks and carrots.Furthermore, the famous “Jevons Paradox” seems to indicate that energy efficiency gains trigger a rise in energy consumption. We discuss options to decarbonise buildings, a long and winding road, but nevertheless critical to solving climate change. We debate about the value of sticks and carrots and the efficiency of public policy support. Is there a winning formula?We thank Amundi for supporting the showTranscripts available here: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

A special interview with one of the great minds of the Energy Transition. Dr. Doug Arent is the Executive Director of Strategic Public– Private Partnerships at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, U.S and Distinguished Fellow, World Economic Forum.  He just published a book called “Our Renewable Energy Future: The Story of How Renewables will become the Basis for Our Lives.”   “Our Renewable Energy Future” focuses on clean energy technology evolution and where our energy system is going. While its foundation is technology innovation, the book brings a unique perspective that technology alone is not what has brought about the explosive growth of renewable energy.  Laurent and Gerard have a stratospheric conversation with Dr Arent about the options in front of us. Digitisation and intelligent networks are going to revolutionize the way we produce and consumer energy.  About NREL: Originally called the Solar Energy Research Institute, NREL began operating in July 1977 and was designated a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in September 1991. It runs a budget of 1bnUSD/y making it one of the world’s (if not the) most impressive R&D institutions when it comes to Renewable Energy.  LINK TO BOOK https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0441#t=aboutBookWe thank Amundi for supporting the showTranscripts available here: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

During Summer season, we bring you back the best of our sister show, Redefining Energy TECH, where host Michael Barnard invites Paul Martin for a very long and geekie conversation about innovative solutions for industrial heat. Two titans of our industry.Paul Martin, a seasoned chemical engineer, share his profound insights on the electrification of industrial heat processes. Here’s a brief summary of the conversation:The discussion kicked off with a critical analysis of the inefficiencies associated with using fire for heat generation compared to electricity. Paul emphasized that electricity not only offers cost advantages but also enhances safety. A significant portion of the conversation was dedicated to the concept of exergy, highlighting its crucial role in the energy transition towards decarbonization. Paul underscored the potential of direct electricity usage for heating processes, moving away from traditional methods of burning chemical energy.We also delved into the advancements in battery technology, discussing how these innovations are revolutionizing energy storage and management. Paul provided fascinating insights into the practical applications of batteries in industrial settings, particularly for short-term high-power requirements.The episode further explored the diverse heat requirements in industrial food preparation, comparing the efficiency of natural gas with other energy sources. Paul highlighted the practicalities and benefits of heat pumping in industrial processes, stressing the importance of understanding different heat metrics for efficiency calculations.In addition to these technical discussions, Paul addressed the challenges and misconceptions surrounding the technology readiness levels and market readiness of heat pumping applications. He also explained the significance of temperature lift in heat pumping and its applications below 200 degrees Celsius. Paul Martin shared insights on various types of industrial heat, including cement clinkering and specialty high-temperature processes, highlighting the importance of efficient heat management.The discussion also touched on the potential of changing wire types for better energy transfer and the role of smart demand and storage solutions during peak energy periods. The episode explored cutting-edge heating technologies such as induction heating, thermolysis, and electrolysis, emphasizing their advantages over traditional combustion methods. Environmental considerations were a key focus, with a shift towards electric heating for sustainability and exploring alternatives to fossil fuels for high-temperature processes.Closing remarks from Michael Barnard and Paul Martin highlighted the value propositions and technological innovations discussed, endorsing consulting services for chemistry process engineering with Paul Martin at Spitfire Research.This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the future of industrial heat and clean energy solutions. Overall, this episode is a treasure trove of knowledge for anyone interested in industrial heat electrification and the future of energy systems.    Transcripts available here: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

In episode 143, Gerard, Laurent and Michael have discussed the philosophy of Bill Gates when it comes to the Energy Transition, and the root causes of his flawed thesis. Let see now if this transpires in his main investment vehicle, Breakthrough Energy Ventures (BEV).Michael Barnard is quite blunt: “To be clear, Gates is still highly resistant to the reality that we have almost all of the solutions we require, and that Breakthrough Energy Ventures is mostly invested in distractions.” As we are about to celebrate the 10th anniversary of BEV, we dive into its successes and failures. And it is a complex picture. BEV has invested in more than 100 companies which is a feat in itself.  For a 3.5bnUSD portfolio, that’s an average of 40mUSD/ticket.When you dig into the portfolio, you will get the Good, with promising ventures (such as Antora, Rondo, Boston Metals, Brimstone, TS Conductor, Fervo, Natel, Pachama, Kobold), the bad with ginormous boondoggles (nuclear, carbon, Hydrogen planes, LDES…), and the Ugly, when BEV (but they are not alone) manage to offload failed ventures via SPACs (Heliogen, QuantumScape, ESS)  or Public Money (Carbon Engineering).  So, Breakthrough or Break down? Glass half full or half empty?  A lot of Silicon Valley billionaires have emulated BEV, with absurd amount of money chasing impossible or totally uneconomic ventures. To name a few, Sam Altman, Khosla Ventures, Patrick Collinson (CEO Stripe) Bezos, Benioff. So, Bill is definitely not alone. And BEV, with a string of smart choices, is probably the least bad, or best of them all.  Michael Barnard unleashed in Cleantechnica https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/04/breakthrough-energy-ventures-has-bad-investment-theses-therefore-bad-investments/