RenMac breaks down a pivotal week where inflation cooled but global yields surged, suggesting the global bond markets—not just the U.S.— may be driving the next macro chapter. Dutta argues first principles matter on unemployment and inflation, deGraaf explains why the latter contracting is historically a quantifiable tailwind for equities and Pavlick examines China tensions from Panama to Taiwan and the continued political risks surrounding tariffs, defense spending, and Fed leadership.
RenMac welcomes WSJ Correspondent Nick Timiraos to unpack a pivotal week for monetary policy. The team digs into why the January jobs print will determine whether the next cut is “live,” how hawkish dissents shaped Fed communications, and what the Chair succession battle means for policy credibility. deGraaf highlights improving market breadth and surprising strength across banks, metals, and equal-weight indices, while Dutta outlines a deteriorating labor market beneath the surface. And Pavlick breaks down Venezuela strategy, ACA deadlines, defense legislation, and a new outbound investment screen targeting China.
RenMac breaks down why forecasting skill and real-world market instincts are critical for the Fed as it faces rising unemployment and a slowing economy. The team unpacks the administration’s escalating pressure on Maduro, surprising weakness in data-center stocks and fading construction momentum as utility costs climb. Also on tap: market leadership rotation, tariff strategy, Japan’s investment commitments and ACA politics. Here, we also welcome you to sign up for our RenMac’s weeklymacro newsletter: https://go.renmac.com/newsletter.
RenMac kicks off Black Friday with a dive into consumer weakness as deGraaf outlines why seasonality is stacked against discretionary stocks, and what recent oversold signals in SPACs, semis, and Bitcoin mean for market trend shifts. Dutta questions the logic of a “hawkish cut” as sentiment, income, and labor data deteriorate, warning the Fed may fall further behind the curve. And Pavlick breaks down rising geopolitical friction from Taiwan to USMCA hearings and evaluates how tariffs, Fed appointments, and ACA subsidies will shape 2026 policy risk. Just in time for the Holiday's, RenMac unveils its swag store, supporting a great cause - check it out at www.renmacmerch.com
RenMac breaks down the market’s ugliest day since 2018 as deGraaf explains the rare “outside reversal” and what oversold signals in Bitcoin, NDX, and speculative tech mean going forward. Dutta argues the Fed is risking a policy mistake as unemployment rises and layoffs spread, and Pavlick outlines the administration’s limited tools — with tariff rollbacks emerging as Trump’s main lever heading into 2026. The team also digs into AI Chip-lomacy, rising utility costs, and early signs of credit strain as Washington heads into Thanksgiving.
RenMac welcomes trade expert Kelly Ann Shaw to unpack a whirlwind week of global trade deals and she explains how the White House is using tariff recalibration to ease consumer pain ahead of the midterms. Dutta rails against the Fed’s “hawkish paralysis” despite cooling data, deGraaf warns markets are flashing bifurcation between tech highs and cyclical lows, and Pavlick tracks how D.C. gridlock, revenue politics, and voter sentiment are reshaping policy risk.
RenMac discusses rising layoff signals and a Fed seemingly blind to softening labor data, Trump’s tariff maneuvering and how SCOTUS and Congress may (or may not) push back, the disconnect between affordability concerns and political rhetoric, and what 52-week highs and lows are signaling about market breadth. They also explore why crypto’s stalling, the shutdown’s drag on economic visibility, and the myth of recession-proof secular bull markets.
RenMac welcomes CNBC’s Mike Santoli to unpack the market’s bullish resilience amid growing macro cracks. The team debates Powell’s “hawkish cut” and its hit to mortgage rates, why housing remains in recession despite Fed easing, and how the AI boom is masking deeper labor and credit stress. deGraaf breaks down the difference between trend and momentum markets, Pavlick tracks Trump’s Asia trade push, rare earth strategy, and the prolonged D.C. shutdown and Dutta warns that slowing incomes and housing could test consumer confidence as markets bet on “just the right amount of wrong.”
RenMac breaks down a cooler-than-expected CPI print that cements the case for further Fed cuts and tempers tariff-fueled inflation fears. Neil dissects how weak rents and slowing jobs are driving disinflation, while Jeff explores the anatomy of bubbles and why gold’s surge is flashing early warning signs. Pavs tracks Trump’s escalating trade brinkmanship ahead of his Asia trip, the politics of aprolonged shutdown, and what to watch in global negotiations as markets juggle seasonality, sentiment, and softening data.
RenMac unpacks rising credit concerns as regional bankswobble and private equity stress builds, contrasting credit risk with last year’s duration scare. Jeff draws upon lessons from Sir Isaac Newton’s South Sea bubble FOMO as today’s liquidity and AI enthusiasm risk repeating history, while Neil flags widening cracks in labor markets and a still-too-tight Fed. Pavs updates the prolonged shutdown, Trump’s trade maneuvers ahead of a Xi meeting, and Washington’s focus on growth over regulation amid geopolitical tension and market froth.
Neil Dutta recently caught up with Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at the MasterCard Economics Institute. From her perch at MasterCard, Michelle has a front seat to the US consumer. In this episode of the RenMac Legends Podcast, we talk about consumer trends and what's driving the recent strength, the benefits of large private sector data sets given the data fog due to the government shutdown, and a get into a bit of a back and forth on housing as well.Michelle was a former colleague of mine at Bank of America Merrill Lynch under Ethan Harris and then ran the US Econ Team at B of A before heading to MasterCard. Here’s our conversation:
RenMac debates whether the Fed’s planned cuts can offset aslowing labor market and rising unemployment, as markets bet liquidity will keep equities buoyant. The team discusses the deepening government shutdown and its missing “pain point,” the global drivers behind gold’s parabolic surge, andWashington’s growing industrial policy push into rare earths. They close by flagging warning signs in semiconductor sentiment and how shifting cyclical trends could define year-end market moves.
RenMac recaps client takeaways from London and Chicago,weighs the rising odds of a prolonged shutdown with Trump threatening permanent layoffs, and breaks down how tariffs, industrial policy, and Big Pharma deals are reshaping the landscape. The team flags complacency in recession odds,highlights sentiment risks in semis, and explains why healthcare’s pain may be setting up a long-term bottom — all while keeping an eye on discretionary trends, gold, and the Fed’s next move.
RenMac welcomes guest Sam Ro as the team unpacks Feddynamics as Trump appointees push aggressive cuts, rising odds of a government shutdown with threats of federal layoffs, and the latest wave of sectoral tariffs. They debate whether cooling labor markets could paradoxically boostmargins, explore the challenges of measuring productivity amid AI adoption, and assess what narrowing market breadth signals for equities heading into Q4.
RenMac discusses the Fed’s risk-management cut and the political dynamics shaping Powell’s next moves, why the internal divisions on rate cuts matter for markets, and what the latest housing and construction data signal for jobs andgrowth. The team also looks at how small caps and cyclicals are powering breadth in the market, whether momentum can outlast beta, and how tariff politics and regulatory shifts add new wrinkles to the outlook.
RenMac discusses how Fed politics and the upcoming FOMC decision are colliding with market expectations, why shutdown risks remain elevated despite hopes for cooler partisan tensions, and how tariffs with China, Mexico, and India are evolving in unexpected ways. The team also debates whether markets are signaling resilience or simply fibbing in the face of weak jobs data, rising slack, and slowing growth, while investors bet on a productivity boom to justify record highs.
They say some people have a face for radio.You? You've got a face for Off-Script.Send us your question via video or audio clip for the RenMac Mailbag.Fame optional. Hats guaranteed.https://start.renmac.com/renmac-mailbag-video
In Today’s Report: RenMac unpacks a payrolls miss that highlights rising slack in the labor market, why consumer sentiment has flipped from bullish to a bearish contrarian signal, and how government shutdown odds are climbing well above normal. The team also digs into gold’s breakout amid falling yields, the shifting dynamics between semis, small caps, and cyclicals, and the political maneuvering around Fed appointments and trade with Mexico and Canada.
This week on RenMac Off-Script, Steve, Jeff, and Pavlik are joined by special guest Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The team digs into the Fed shakeup after President Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook, the implications for market stability, and whether “norms” still matter in policy. They also discuss the rally in gold, cracks in the labor market, small caps leading equities higher, China’s breakout, and client psychology in a too-good-to-be-true market. Plus: Josh previews the Future Proof Festival, and the crew debates SPAC mania, data center jobs, and what’s on the horizon for September.
RenMac unpacks why Asian and frontier markets are rallying despite tariffs, how Trump’s industrial policy is morphing into “state capitalism,” the risks of politicizing Fed appointments with the Lisa Cook scandal, and why stagflation fears are misplaced as tight credit spreads argue against recession, even as beta keeps breaking down and momentum holds up