RiskReversal Pod

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan welcome Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge, to discuss market psychology versus history, arguing that positioning, sentiment, and flows show continued retail buying and complacency even as institutions reduced equity exposure around “Liberation Day.” Dawson highlights warning signs including weak financials, discretionary lagging staples, and a “risk swap” from AI-disrupted software into high-valuation defensives and cyclicals. The group explores volatility selling, geopolitical risks that matter mainly through oil’s impact on earnings, and how to monitor credit—especially high yield spreads—while noting private credit and BDCs have heavier software exposure than public high yield. They debate IPO demand for mega private AI firms, bond yields’ lack of trend, the dollar’s role in non-U.S. equities, China’s partial decoupling, gold’s parabolic technicals, and how jobs, growth, inflation, and future EPS estimates shape 2026–2027 market outcomes. Show Notes The Future Freaks Me Out or Everything is Alright? (NewEdge) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan interviews veteran tech investor Dan Benton about how tech investing has changed since Benton’s 1991 “20 rules” at Goldman Sachs and why he’s releasing new “2026 rules,” alongside launching a Substack. Benton contrasts a pre-internet, sell-side, information-advantage era with today’s commoditized data, retail tools, and faster markets, arguing investors now differentiate by identifying secular themes and sticking with them. He emphasizes tech as “the market,” the need to respect the Fed, and that momentum in tech is driven by multi-year estimate trajectories, revenue acceleration, and operating leverage, with valuation often secondary until growth decelerates. They discuss stock-based compensation distorting earnings quality, rotations within AI beneficiaries, crowding and risk-off selloffs, and uncertainties around hyperscaler CapEx and OpenAI’s private-market marks. The conversation covers SaaS disruption risk, Tesla and SpaceX “selling the future,” China’s advantages, and why markets are faster but not smarter. Links Rules For Tech Investing (Google Drive) Follow Dan's SubStack: substack.com/@danbenton —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami cover PPI, upcoming earnings, and this week’s jobs report. They focus on mounting stress in the AI infrastructure and financing complex: CoreWeave’s post-earnings drop, heavy customer concentration, funding challenges, and Jim Chanos’ critique that its GPU-leasing model loses money and shows distress-level liquidity, alongside declines in Apollo, KKR, Blackstone, and banks. They contrast Nvidia’s strong quarter and 60% growth outlook with stock stagnation, discuss Broadcom as a key AI barometer, and note ongoing software multiple and margin compression highlighted by volatile moves in Workday and Salesforce. Despite rising VIX swings, falling 10-year yields, and consumer-credit concerns signaled by AmEx, Capital One, Klarna, and Walmart trade-down commentary, the S&P remains near highs; they also discuss crude’s rebound amid Middle East tensions and Bitcoin weakness pressuring MicroStrategy. After the break, Jen & Kristen join Dan and Guy live from the iConnections Global Alts conference in Miami to unpack an “AI panic” market day, why higher productivity could mean higher rates, and what private credit hiccups really signal for hedge funds and alts. They also explain how The Wall Street Skinny is turning arcane finance jargon into plain English for everyone from college students to the C‑suite, plus why there are no dumb questions when it comes to bonds, credit, and careers on Wall Street. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 2:00 - CoreWeave & The Software Slide 17:30 - VIX, SPX & The Consumer 25:00 - Yields & Crude 28:30 - Bitcoin & Broader Market 33:20 - He Said, She Said

Dan Nathan hosts Peter Boockvar to discuss the rapid growth of private credit, arguing it has replaced bank lending but now faces rising defaults, potential liquidity mismatches as retail capital enters evergreen funds, and limited stress-testing in a downturn; they cite pressure in leveraged loans, gating/redemptions, and examples like Blue Owl financing tied to CoreWeave’s asset-heavy model and customer concentration. They connect credit stress to equity risk via the capital structure and watchpoints like the LSTA leveraged loan index, high yield spreads, and HYG. Boockvar outlines a leadership shift away from hyperscalers toward equal-weight and “boring” sectors like energy and staples, while warning a deeper tech decline could still pull markets down. They cover oil’s inflation implications, a challenging labor market, cautious consumers per Walmart/Home Depot/Lowe’s, bullish long-term gold/silver dynamics, stronger international performance, and Japan’s rising long-end yields affecting carry trades and global flows. Checkout Peter's SubStack: https://boockreport.com/Follow Peter on X: https://x.com/pboockvar?lang=en —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Broadcast live from iConnections Global Alts in South Beach, Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Dan Greenhaus of Solus Alternative Asset Management and later Vincent Daniel to discuss a sharp, risk-off market move tied to the increasingly financialized AI buildout. They review weakness across private credit and alternative lenders after reports of difficulty placing debt to fund CoreWeave’s data center, spilling over into names like Blue Owl and into large alternative managers, banks, and high-profile stocks like IBM, which suffers its worst day in decades. The group debates how a viral AI “thought experiment” amplified uncertainty about near-term industry disruption, the circular quid-pro-quo dynamics of AI financing and chip demand, and whether market valuations offer any cushion if the AI narrative falters. With Nvidia reporting the next day, they focus on expectations for growth and margins, the risk that competition could compress gross margins and re-rate the stock, and the broader question of whether AI success could drive major white-collar job losses, “ghost GDP,” and policy responses. The conversation closes with Vinnie describing investor “what if” fears around AI’s impact on employment and fee-based industries. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Jen Saarbach and Kristen Kelly of The Wall Street Skinny to discuss two major developing market stories ahead of meeting in Miami for the iConnections Global Alts conference. The first topic is stress in private credit, centered on Blue Owl’s retail-focused semi-liquid vehicle (Blue Owl Capital Corp II) facing heavy redemptions and gating, highlighting the liquidity mismatch between retail redemption needs and long-dated loan assets. They contrast the gated evergreen structure with Blue Owl’s publicly traded BDC that was trading roughly 20% below NAV, discuss Blue Owl’s reported loan sales near NAV, and explore why the issue is pressuring related stocks like Blue Owl and Blackstone despite an S&P 500 that appears indifferent. The group connects the private credit conversation to how AI/data center buildouts are financed, including references to Meta-related structures and concerns about CoreWeave’s ability to raise capital for data center obligations, and notes that credit markets often reprice quickly only after complacency breaks. The second topic is prediction markets, focusing on Kalshi and its partnership with Tradeweb to publish analytics and potentially enable institutional trading of binary outcomes on events like Fed decisions and macro data, raising questions about democratized access, liquidity constraints, regulatory gaps, spoofing, and the role of insider information, along with implications for politics and whether more information is always better. Show Notes 1 big thing: Trump's huge tariff loss (Axios) Blue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investors (FT) Wall Street Bond-Trading Hub Tradeweb Strikes Deal With Kalshi (Bloomberg) Exclusive: Supreme Court tariff ruling makes over $175 billion in US revenue subject to refunds, Penn-Wharton estimates (Reuters) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Guy Adami interviews Michael Kao (@UrbanKaoboy), discussing the historic moves in gold and silver, the debate over fiat debasement versus speculative positioning, and why charts showing central bank gold eclipsing Treasury holdings can be misleading because much of the change is price appreciation rather than new buying. Kao argues true de-dollarization is unlikely due to the lack of a rival fiat ecosystem with comparable liquidity and deep bond markets, and says a shift from Treasuries to gold as a reserve anchor would imply economic austerity and slower global GDP growth. They explore how geopolitics (including post-Ukraine reserve seizure fears) and Trump-related tariff and deficit narratives have fueled gold, while Kao outlines a contrarian view that Trump 2.0 policies plus AI could be deflationary and potentially restore productivity-driven disinflationary growth similar to the late 1990s; he also critiques CBO debt projections for assuming low productivity growth. The conversation covers AI’s disruptive impact on industry moats and equity multiple compression versus immediate default risk, touches briefly on Japan’s bond market and the yen carry trade, and examines the “sanctity” of large AI CapEx plans and whether AI expands total addressable markets or mainly drives cost cutting. Kao highlights his thesis from his piece on AI electrification: U.S. electricity demand may accelerate sharply after decades of flat growth, creating an energy bottleneck that increases reliance on natural gas (given limits to coal and nuclear), amplified by data center buildouts and LNG exports. He explains his preference for natural gas mineral strategies that distribute cash flow over trading commodities or owning E&P equities due to capital allocation risks, and notes recent oil spikes have often faded since 2022. Show Notes AI, Electrification, and the Hidden Energy Bottleneck | Michael Kao The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

In this episode of The Risk Reversal Podcast, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down the massive rotation rocking the tech sector. Why are investors dumping software darlings like Salesforce, Adobe, and Oracle while Apple hits new highs? The guys debate whether the "AI tailwind" has officially become a headwind for SaaS companies and if the massive infrastructure spend by Microsoft and Google will ever generate a real return. After the break, Dan sits down with Jason Wilk, Founder and CEO of Dave ($DAVE). Jason shares his incredible founder journey—from a professional golf aspirant to landing Mark Cuban as a lead investor who capped his salary at $30k. They discuss how Dave is using AI-driven underwriting to disrupt JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, slashing default rates from 20% to 1%, and the future of fintech in a high-rate environment. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan welcomes Michael Dempsey, partner at Compound VC, for an in-depth discussion on AI, crypto, and technological investing. Returning guest Dempsey shares his insights on historical and emerging trends in AI, highlighting the evolving landscape of AI commercialization, the increasing speed from research to market, and the shift from market cap expansion to destruction. The podcast also dives into Dempsey's venture capital strategies, discussing his firm's impressive portfolio, including companies like Runway and Wave, and their new public markets fund. The conversation later transitions to crypto, with guest Evan Karvounis sharing his journey and the significant potential he sees in the decentralized exchange, Hyper Liquid. Michael further elaborates on Bitcoin's potential as a store of value. The episode encapsulates a comprehensive overview of the bleeding-edge tech landscape and its promising future. After the break, Dan welcomes Evan Karvounis to the pod. Evan shares his view on Bitcoin's current branding issues linked to the Trump administration and the preference for gold among Eastern investors. The conversation then shifts to Ethereum and Solana, which Evan believes are significantly overvalued, explaining their past success through the 'casino chip thesis.' The focus then moves to Hyper Liquid, a decentralized exchange project Evan heavily invests in. He outlines its unique approach of building a product before a chain, its market potential, and recent impressive growth, particularly in traditional asset trading. The discussion concludes with Hyper Liquid's market positioning and revenue growth potential. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Go Follow TWSS on Substack In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, hosts Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss significant market movements such as the volatility index breaching 20, the rolling over of bank stocks, and Walmart's rise to an all-time high. They also delve into sectors affected by AI disruption, including tech, software, and semiconductors. Special guests from The Wall Street Skinny, Jen Saarbach and Kristen Kelly, join to discuss Google's issuance of a 100-year bond denominated in Sterling, the ongoing Warner Brothers acquisition saga, and the long-term impact of AI on employment and various industries. The episode concludes by examining the potential market effects of these trends and the implications for retail and institutional investors. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan sits with Dan Ives, head of Technology Research at Wedbush. They delve into Q1 market earnings, guidance for 2026, and the implications on CapEx and stock market reactions. The discussion expands to OpenAI’s influence, disruptive technologies, and tech stocks like Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia. They also cover Ives’ diversified roles including his tech research, crypto investments, and his eponymous ETF. The conversation touches on AI’s impact on tech and software sectors, the rise of financial services utilizing AI, and the broader implications for future investments and market behavior. Show Notes He’s Wall Street’s Biggest Showman. Should You Trust Him? (Barron's) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Kristen Kelly and Jen Saarbach discuss the recent happenings in the stock market, with a focus on the significant shift in sentiment towards SaaS companies. They explore how AI investments and the ensuing financial implications are affecting market valuations. The conversation touches on several key areas, including Microsoft's fluctuating performance, the role of rising interest rates, and the broader impact on the credit markets, especially in private equity and private credit. Additionally, the panel discusses the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, questioning Bitcoin's role as digital gold and the structural issues within the crypto ecosystem. They also examine the intriguing financial strategies and market maneuvers of Elon Musk's companies, particularly the recent merger between SpaceX and xAI. The episode concludes with a look at potential market rotations into sectors like financials and energy, as well as the upcoming challenges posed by macroeconomic conditions and the new Federal Reserve chair. Article Mentioned Hedge Fund’s Bet on Liquidity Over Private Credit Is Paying Off (Bloomberg) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Jim Chanos, founder of Chanos and Co, to discuss a wide range of investment and market topics. They delve deep into Chanos' investment strategies, including his focus on short selling and hedging, as well as his views on the AI CapEx and its potential impacts on various industries. Jim also provides insights into specific companies like MicroStrategy and CoreWeave and highlights the implications of excessive reliance on subprime loans in companies like Carvana. The discussion expands to macroeconomic issues, such as the Chinese economy and its trade relationships with the U.S., and the speculative nature of current market conditions. The episode concludes with a look at retail investment behavior and the potential risks in the crypto market. Articles Referenced - Credit Market’s Reality Check Follows Decade of Loose Lending (Bloomberg) - The American and Chinese Economies Are Hurtling Toward a Messy Divorce (WSJ) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan hosts Rishi Jaluria from RBC Capital on the 'Okay, Computer' podcast, discussing the recent downturn in software stocks amid a contrasting performance in the semiconductor sector. Rishi attributes the decline to the rise of AI and its transformative impact on software companies. The conversation covers the uncertain future of enterprise software, with examples like Salesforce and Oracle experiencing significant drops. They explore how AI adoption could drive margin expansion across various industries, including retail and oil and gas. Finally, the potential of companies like Microsoft and HubSpot to leverage AI for growth is considered, along with the future role of AI leaders OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google in shaping the tech landscape. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down the market moves following Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve Chair appointment, the shocking gold selloff, silver's collapse, and why Bitcoin can't break out despite the crypto-friendly administration. After the break, Jen Saarbach & Kristen Kelly join the guys to discuss the decline in the US dollar, market sentiment and Gen Z's proclivity for gambling. Checkout these articles mentioned Hedge Funds Are Back on Top After a Long ‘Alpha Winter’ (WSJ) Companies rush to refinance as credit looks good (Axios) Gen Z is playing the economy like a casino (Axios) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro Research at Fidelity Investments. The discussion reflects on the October 2023 market scenario when the 10-year yield reached 5% and the S&P 500 declined by 10%. Jurrien discusses the current bond market's stability, the geopolitical factors influencing gold prices, and the stock market's concentration risks with a focus on the Magnificent Seven (Mag 7) tech stocks. The conversation also covers interest rate risks, economic policies, and the potential implications of Japan's bond market volatility on global markets. Ian provides insights into valuation models, diversification strategies, and the AI boom's speculative nature, highlighting the need for careful portfolio management in a high-valuation environment. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan is joined by Steve Milunovich, a tech investor and retired sell-side analyst from Merrill Lynch. The discussion delves into the parallels between the AI boom and the dotcom era, touching on technological waves from the 1980s to the present. Milunovich highlights similarities such as early-stage winners, heavy capital expenditures, and the emergence of application layers later on. They also discuss the circular financing in the tech industry and potential risks, including heavy reliance on significant players like Nvidia and issues surrounding supply constraints. The conversation explores the broader implications of AI across various industries, including financial institutions and industrials, and considers the timeline for wider adoption and monetization of AI technologies. The dialogue is framed by historical context, with references to past tech bubbles, network effects, and the potential for new winners in unexpected sectors. Show Notes AI: The Wrong Kind of Bubble (Breadcrum.vc) Meta inks deal to pay Corning up to $6 billion for fiber-optic cables in AI data centers (CNBC) AI productivity is about to become visible and investable (FT) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan break down the biggest week of earnings season 2026, featuring high-stakes reports from Boeing, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, Apple, SanDisk, Western Digital, Exxon, and Chevron. Plus, Jen Saarbach and Kristin Kelly join for "He Said She Said" to analyze Japan's historic bond market crisis and the Netflix-Warner Bros-Paramount M&A saga. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research. The discussion covers Rosenberg's past market predictions, his outlook for 2025-2026, and his insights on various economic themes. Rosenberg reflects on his bearish stance on US equities and bullish view on long-term treasuries, analyzing key trends like inflation, the impact of tariffs, and the strength of the US dollar. The conversation also touches on the influence of AI-related investments in the market, the economic implications of stock market performance, and the potential for recession given current employment and income data. Rosenberg emphasizes the importance of understanding market cycles and the significant role of investor behavior. The episode concludes with his views on gold prices, central bank policies, and possible future economic scenarios. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan and Deirdre Bosa discuss recent advancements in AI-driven coding tools like Replit and Claude Cowork, sharing personal experiences and their potential to disrupt traditional software development. They elaborate on conversations with Amjad Masad of Replit and Aaron Levie of Box about the future of AI in software. The discussion also touches on the US-China AI rivalry, with CEOs from major tech companies urging policy support to compete with China's subsidized AI ecosystem. The conversation highlights concerns over software disruption, the impact of AI on the software market, and geopolitical implications for AI innovation. After the break, Dan chats with Gene Munster, Managing Partner at Deepwater Asset Management, discuss the current state and future trends in AI-related investments as of 2026. Gene shares his perspectives on the AI market’s evolution over recent years, particularly focusing on key players like Nvidia and the dynamics around training versus inference. They talk about the impact of recent developments in coding assistants like Claude from Anthropic and its implications for the technology sector. The conversation also covers the valuation and growth prospects of major tech firms including Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, highlighting their individual strategies and market performance. The dialogue underscores a cautious optimism in the AI sector, with a focus on how technological advancements and market sentiment will influence investment decisions. Links Watch Dee's Convo with Replit's CEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOa3SfkQ0vE Watch Dee's Convo with the CEO of Box: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/11/12/box-ceo-trumps-deregulation-could-spark-a-tech-supercycle.html —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media