Riskgaming

It’s been a year for the record books, and so it is with the Riskgaming podcast. We published 68 episodes this year across our main show and The Orthogonal Bet sub-series with Sam Arbesman (which we will have more to share next year!). We’ve had technologists, spies, policymakers, CEOs, authors, artists and all around renaissance wunderkinds on the show this year, and so we wanted to take a step back and highlight the best moments of some of our episodes. With host Danny Crichton narrating, here’s the best 11 moments from 2024 as we head into the holidays.

We are really excited to announce the publication of our third and latest Riskgaming scenario, "Powering Up: China’s Global Quest for Electric Vehicle Dominance.” Designed by Ian Curtiss over the course of the last year, we started beta trials of the game a few months ago with dozens of playtesters and just hosted launch runthroughs across the United States in NYC, DC and SF as well as a worldwide tour in London, Romania and Tokyo. It was great fun bringing together dozens of policymakers, tech executives and journalists over the past few weeks. While we previewed Powering Up on an episode back in October, now that we have played the game with so many diverse groups, we wanted to talk about some of the lessons learned from its design, the patterns of strategies we’ve witnessed among players and the wider implications of those strategies for how the world will change in the years ahead. So we gathered together host Danny Crichton, Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner and Ian himself live in our Menlo Park studio to talk about all the results. Come tune in, and then sign up so you can play the next scenario we release in 2025.

Recently in the Riskgaming newsletter (“The Productivity Precipice”), host Danny Crichton wrote about one of the biggest challenges facing America: how many of our industries — and particularly those in construction and building — are becoming some of the least-efficient in the industrialized world. Today’s podcast episode identifies yet another problem, and it regards elevators. Elevators aren’t just a conveyance of convenience, they are also crucial infrastructure for millions of Americans who struggle with mobility and anyone who has ever carried heavy luggage or groceries in or out of a building. Yet, the cost of America’s elevators is often multiple times more expensive than similar elevators in Europe and certainly Asia. Why? That’s what we’ll discuss today with Stephen Smith, the executive director of the Center for Building, a think tank that studies building codes in global comparative context. His viral op-ed in The New York Times earlier this year has been read by everyone, and he’s continuing to do more research on how zoning and building codes collaborate to drive up prices for everyone. We’ll talk about that, as well as why America remains so suburban, the insider interests and negotiations that constrain construction efficiency, and why the West Coast is particularly bad for overhead.

Every quarter, Lux sends an update to our limited partners observing the macroeconomic environment, the changes in venture capital, and our current thinking regarding the present and future of science and technology. This time, we focused on “Titanic Lessons,” four classic parables from Greek mythology that elucidate our understanding of the world. Joining host Danny Crichton is letter writer Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner of Lux Capital. Whether it is Prometheus offering fire as a form of “extensionalism” that expands the bounds of human powers, or Atlas taking on the burdens of the world in pursuit of the next intrepid voyage, Josh discusses how new technologies can rapidly augment human potential — but only if they are unlocked and unleashed. Unfortunately, so many of the world’s best innovators remain shackled in research labs and corporate offices without the resources and autonomy to succeed. That’s where our four investment strategies of Lux Labs, corporate spin-offs, tactical global opportunities and fixware come in. We discuss the potential of each in turn. Then there’s a wider set of warnings from Epimetheus and Menoetius, two Greek Titans whose arrogance and hubris would prove their downfall. We bring them up in the course of discussing the future of AI infrastructure, its expansive energy needs, the power of decentralized compute technologies and finally, the potential for Apple to emerge from behind as an AI winner.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Dave Jilk. Dave is a tech entrepreneur and writer. He’s done a ton: started multiple companies, including in AI, published works of poetry, and written scientific papers. And he’s now written a new book that is an epic poem about the origins of Artificial General Intelligence, told from the perspective of the first such entity. It’s titled Epoch: A Poetic Psy-Phi Saga and is a deeply thoughtful humanistic take on artificial intelligence, chock-full of literary allusions. Sam wanted to speak with Dave to learn more about the origins of Epoch as well as how he thinks about AI more broadly. They discussed the history of AI, how we might think about raising AI, the Great Filter, post-AGI futures and their nature, and whether asking if we should build AGI is even a good question. They even finished this fun conversation with a bit of science fiction recommendations. Produced by⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

It’s not every day that we can get our distributed Riskgaming team into one podcast studio, but we actually managed to do it from our NYC base, and with some drinks to boot. Joining host Danny Crichton is Lux’s Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner and our researcher, part-time columnist and all around utility handyman Michael Magnani. We talk about the U.S. presidential election and which threats from our AI deepfake election security scenario DeepFaked and DeepSixed actually took place — and which didn’t. We then cover Germany’s sputtering industrial economy, the future of the war in Ukraine and trade tensions with China. Finally, we close out with a discussion of the three threats that the world isn’t thinking about today, and what should be done about them.

Anduril has become one of the most-watched companies in Silicon Valley, and for good reason. Its vertiginous rise from small hardware laboratory to next-generation defense prime has entranced engineers and investors alike, and it has also garnered an increasingly long record of success in Washington DC, including its victory in securing the U.S. Air Force’s flagship Collaborative Combat Aircraft contract earlier this year. Yet for co-founder and CEO Brian Schimpf, the real magic of Anduril has been its ability to scale design, manufacturing and its culture from a dozen early employees to more than 4,000 today. Brian’s maniacal focus has been on ensuring that Anduril never becomes a legacy defense prime ploddingly delivering half-baked products to the disappointed faces of warfighters. Instead, he and his team have tenaciously strategized on business models, contract negotiations, tuck-in M&A, engineering culture and manufacturing centralization and decentralization to ensure that Anduril always offers the highest-quality and most cost-effective products in the marketplace. Alongside Lux’s own Josh Wolfe, Brian talks about his own founding journey at Anduril, the company’s burgeoning portfolio of products, and how it’s rebuilding the arsenal of democracy in the years ahead through clever and strategic leadership.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with the writer Henry Oliver. Henry is the author of the fantastic new book Second Act. This book is about the idea of late bloomers and professional success later in life, and more broadly how to think about one’s career, and Sam recently reviewed it for The Wall Street Journal. Sam really enjoyed this book and wanted to have a chance to discuss it with Henry. Henry and Sam had a chance to talk about a lot of topics, beginning with how to actually define late bloomers and what makes a successful second act possible, from experimentation to being ready when one’s moment arrives. They also explored why society doesn’t really accept late bloomers as much as one might want it to, how to think about the complexity of cognitive decline, what the future of retirement might look like, along with many examples of late bloomers—from Margaret Thatcher to Ray Kroc. Produced by⁠⁠ ⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠ Music by⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

The sudden widespread usage of advanced artificial intelligence models has massively increased global demand for data centers that can handle inference and training. That’s been a boon for Nvidia’s stock, but it has also added massive new demands to our energy grid. Microsoft recently announced that it intends to re-open the ill-fated Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, while Google has announced investments and partnerships with nuclear startups like Kairos Power. Yet, much of the obvious analysis of this market is far less obvious than meets the eye, or at least the eyes of Mark Mills. Across decades of studying the energy markets, Mark is currently a distinguished senior fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, the executive director of the National Center for Energy Analytics, and a contributing editor of the Manhattan Institute’s City Journal. We talk about the contradictions in much of today’s energy analysis, including the misdirection of attention toward AI instead of traditional compute which vastly dwarfs it; the misapplication of economic development incentives by cities and state to data center construction; and the misunderstanding of energy transitions — a mirage according to Mark since we are always seeking to expand all forms of energy to power our civilization.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Dominic Falcao, a founding director of Deep Science Ventures (DSV), which he created in 2016 after leading Imperial College London’s science startup program. Deep Science Ventures takes a principled and problem-based approach to founding new deep tech startups. They have even created a PhD program for scientists specifically geared towards helping them create new companies. Sam wanted to speak with Dom to discuss the origins of Deep Science Ventures, as well as how to think about scientific and technological progress more broadly, and even how to conceive new research organizations. Dom and Sam had a chance to discuss tech trees and the combinatorial nature of scientific and technological innovation, non-traditional research organizations, Europe’s tech innovation ecosystem, what scientific amphibians are, and the use of AI in the realm of deep tech. Produced by⁠ ⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠ Music by⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

We’re really excited to talk about the launch of our second public Riskgaming scenario, “DeepFaked and DeepSixed: AI Election Security and the Future of Democracy.” DeepFaked and DeepSixed is a bit different from our previous political and economic simulations, which tend toward groups of 4-8 people negotiating, haggling and cajoling over the course of several hours. Instead, this game centers on an intelligence fusion center at the White House where 54 people come together to offer information and to seek out patterns of threats against American democracy. Player roles come from across government, international organizations, the private sector and non-profits, and are designed to offer both a crisp backstory as well as essential clues relevant to that character’s background. Everyone cooperates against the clock to identify critical threats before it is too late. Lux’s director of programming Laurence Pevsner (who is making his Riskgaming podcast debut) and host Danny Crichton talk about the design of the game, what triggered its creation and the lessons we learned from two runthroughs in New York and Washington this week (including which city did better to protect American elections).

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with writer, researcher, and entrepreneur Max Bennett. Max is the cofounder of multiple AI companies and the author of the fascinating book A Brief History of Intelligence: Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains. This book offers a deeply researched look at the nature of intelligence and how biological history has led to this phenomenon. It explores aspects of evolution, the similarities and differences between AI and human intelligence, many features of neuroscience, and more. Produced by ⁠Christopher Gates⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

The automobile industry is one of the most pivotal in the world, both due to its scale and its nexus at the heart of the manufacturing systems in countries such as the United States, Germany, Japan, Korea and China. There’s a massive transformation of the industry underway as consumers transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, and China is increasingly leading the way with innovative and affordable cars from the likes of BYD and others. How will the future of the industry change, and how do the political dynamics of China’s leadership affect which countries will win — and which will falter? Our upcoming Riskgaming scenario, “Powering Up: China’s Global Quest for Electric Vehicle Dominance,” simulates this complex business environment by fusing the transition from ICEs to EVs with the opaque vagaries of China’s national security and industrial policies. It’s designed by Ian Curtiss, who lived and worked in China for many years before decamping to Arizona and continuing to build a series of tabletop games covering everything from the geopolitics of the modern world to the politics of medieval Europe on the Iberian Peninsula. Ian and host Danny Crichton talk about “Powering Up” and its design, how the tradeoffs in the game can inform decision-making in the real world, and why people are so engaged with the Riskgaming model of gameplay.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, the Sam speaks with novelist Lev Grossman. A longtime fan of Lev’s novels, the host delves into his works, including The Magicians trilogy—a splendid set of books about a university for magic, fantastical worlds, and much more. These books are amazing. Lev’s newest book is the novel The Bright Sword, a retelling of the legends of King Arthur, particularly focusing on what happens after Arthur dies. The Sam devoured The Bright Sword and found it fascinating. It’s a book that weaves together ideas about gods and magic, the layering of myths across history, and much more—all topics explored in the conversation with Lev. Lev and Sam discuss the story of King Arthur, its gaps and its history, the layering of gods and stories over time, the nature of magic and religion, the importance of secondary worlds, and the magic in The Magicians versus the magic of The Bright Sword. They even have a chance to discuss Lev’s next project, which is a space opera. This episode was a lot of fun. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠CRG Consulting⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

China’s pivot from open to closed over the past decade has been striking. It wasn’t so long ago that tens of thousands of students and thousands of journalists and researchers were living and studying in the country, with multitudes of ambitious business executives spread across the nation’s financial capitals. Now, the number of Americans traveling and living in China has hit another low. With less grounded information, what are Americans missing about its most important trade partner and its growing adversary? Randal Phillips knows the crisis better than anyone. The former chief CIA representative in China and a 28-year veteran of the agency’s Directorate of Operations, he retired for the world of business consulting, focusing on answering key geopolitical and business landscape questions for global clients. He was also vice chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. Now, he’s increasingly concerned about the closing of the country’s borders and information systems, making it increasingly challenging for executives and political leaders to understand what they don’t know. Randal and host Danny Crichton talk about the recent Department of Justice indictment against the Sinaloa drug cartel and underground Chinese money launderers, and then we cover the fentanyl crisis, the shrinking space for information and due diligence firms on China’s economy, the challenges of operating on the mainland and the CIA’s operations, and finally, what the prognosis is for China’s economy in the years ahead.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Alex Miller, a software developer and artist known for his work on a project called Spacefiller. This project exemplifies generative art, where computer code is used to create art and imagery. Spacefiller itself is a pixelated form of artwork that feels organic and biological, but is entirely crafted through algorithms. Sam invited Alex to discuss not only Spacefiller, but also the broader world of generative art, and the concept of coding as a fun and playful activity. Together, they explore topics such as the distinction between computation as art and computation as software engineering, the nature of algorithmic botany, and even the wonders of graph paper. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠CRG Consulting⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

China’s vertiginous rise over the past three decades has finally dawned on the Washington DC foreign policy blob. The hopes and dreams of China’s reform-and-opening period have transitioned to the fear and loathing of the Xi era, triggering broad concerns about America’s standing in the world today and in the future. Are we falling behind China in economic performance, research, dynamism and talent? Are America’s best days behind it? For Dmitri Alperovitch, the answer is an emphatic “no.” The co-founder and former CTO of cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike and the co-author of this year’s “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century,” Alperovitch believes that the United States already has all the qualities to extend Pax Americana for another century. In his view, there is far too much cynicism in DC these days, and not enough of the optimism for the future that he bears with him from years as an entrepreneur and as an immigrant from the former Soviet Union. Alperovitch and host Danny Crichton discuss the qualities that America still has going for it, and how the media overemphasizes negative trends at the expense of a more holistic picture of America’s performance. We then talk about upgrading the Defense Department, the need for better procurement around emerging technologies, the advent of software complementing hardware on the battlefield, and the lessons we can learn from Ukraine’s experience fighting Russia.

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with J. Doyne Farmer, a physicist, complexity scientist, and economist. Doyne is currently the Director of the Complexity Economics program at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School and the Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford. Doyne is also the author of the fascinating new book “Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World.” Sam wanted to explore Doyne’s intriguing history in complexity science, his new book, and the broader field of complexity economics. Together, they discuss the nature of simulation, complex systems, the world of finance and prediction, and even the differences between biological complexity and economic complexity. They also touch on Doyne’s experience building a small wearable computer in the 1970s that fit inside a shoe and was designed to beat the game of roulette. Produced by ⁠⁠CRG Consulting⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. In this episode, Sam speaks with Tarin Ziyaee, a technologist and founder, about the world of artificial life. The field of artificial life explores ways to describe and encapsulate aspects of life within software and computer code. Tarin has extensive experience in machine learning and AI, having worked at Meta and Apple, and is currently building a company in the field of Artificial Life. This new company—which, full disclosure, Sam is also advising—aims to embody aspects of life within software to accelerate evolution and develop robust methods for controlling robotic behavior in the real world. Sam wanted to speak with Tarin to discuss the nature of artificial life, its similarities and differences to more traditional artificial intelligence approaches, the idea of open-endedness, and more. They also had a chance to chat about tool usage and intelligence, large language models versus large action models, and even robots. Produced by ⁠CRG Consulting⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

In this episode of the RISKGAMING Podcast, host Danny Crichton sits down with columnist Michael Magnani to dissect the explosive rise of legalized sports betting in America and its far-reaching consequences. The conversation then pivots to broader geopolitical topics, including the role of open-source intelligence in modern warfare and how technology is changing the defense landscape. They wrap the episode up with a look at Japan’s election results and the shifting political dynamics that could alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.