Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Nate and Maria share their reactions to last week’s assassination of conservative organizer and activist Charlie Kirk, who died after sustaining a gunshot wound at a speaking event on a Utah campus. Then, they debate the Democrats’ strategy as a government shutdown looms — and Nate says what he would do if he were Chuck Schumer.NOTE: Risky Business will now be in your feeds twice a week, on Wednesdays and Saturdays. We will be pausing bonus content for the time being, but premium subscribers still get ad-free access to the entire Pushkin network. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tesla has offered CEO Elon Musk a package worth $1 trillion to stay at the helm of the company — if he can hit a series of very ambitious goals. All of this comes in the midst of a serious dip in performance at the company, with stock falling 16% this year (partly as a result of Musk’s controversial moves on the world stage). So this week, Nate and Maria play armchair quarterback in a game of Good Call / Bad Call. Then, they cut through the chatter over a modern masculinity crisis and get into the data. Is there really a crisis among men? Is it better to be a woman in 2025? Further Reading: Boy Crisis of 2025, Meet the ‘Boy Problem’ of the 1900s from NYT The ‘Boy Crisis’ Is Overblown from NYT For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate is on vacation this week, so Maria is joined by journalist David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene and Range. They talk about a new company that offers comprehensive genetic sequencing on embryos during the IVF process—at a high price. What are the ethics of this kind of technology? And what are the risks (and rewards) of trying to optimize your child’s genes? Plus, they discuss a topic they’ve been texting about for years: Does your name determine who you become? Further Reading: You can find more about David and his writing on his website, https://davidepstein.com/. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, Maria interviews reality TV legend Boston Rob. Rob has been on Survivor six times, and has also appeared on The Amazing Race, The Traitors, and Deal or No Deal Island. He’s a master strategist with a psychology background. He and Maria discuss how to build trust strategically in a competitive environment, how to read your opponents’ motivations, and why it’s so important to play to win. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As Texas embarks on a rare round of mid-decade redistricting and California threatens to answer with its own, Nate and Maria analyze the history, politics, and game theory of gerrymandering. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week Nate and Maria discuss the release of GPT-5, the latest model from OpenAI. This model promises to be faster, smarter, and more useful while also reducing hallucinations and sycophancy. It also lets users choose among different AI “personalities.” What do Nate and Maria think so far? Then, they turn to the newly inked Nvidia trade deal, which notably includes a 15% cut of sales to China for the US government Further Reading: Ethical Issues In Advanced Artificial Intelligence by Nick Bostrom, 2003 SuperIntelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom, 2014 For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With all the frenzy last week around Jeffrey Epstein and ColdplayGate, you might have missed an important story: Trump’s new AI Action Plan. Released alongside three new executive orders on AI, the plan emphasizes deregulation, open sourcing, and “anti-woke” models in a race for industry dominance. Today, Nate and Maria get into the details and declare it… not bad? Further Reading: AI Action Plan  Zvi Mowshowitz America’s AI Action Plan Is Pretty Good For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

To wrap up our coverage of the World Series of Poker, we bring you a poker interview extravaganza. This year, Leo Margets became the second woman ever to make it to the Main Event final table—and the first since 1995. Nate and Maria chat with Leo about her approach to poker, why having fun helps her play better, and how she felt about her historic 2025 WSOP. Then, they interview poker legend Erik Seidel, who taught Maria to play the game. He talks about the camaraderie of the poker world, and shares his personal “no suffering” rule. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s sudden about face on the Epstein Files is ruffling feathers in his usually unruffle-able base. Will he be able to convince the true believers that there is, in fact, nothing to see here? And, how should we think about conspiracy theories in a world where conspiracies are sometimes real? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that these measures sprang from “an abundance of caution.” But what was the evidence on the necessity of keeping kids home? And, looking back, did the benefits of prolonged school closures outweigh the costs? This week, Nate interviews author and journalist David Zweig about his book examining COVID policies and school closure decisions during the pandemic. They get into why we tend to find cost-benefit analysis so difficult, how political polarization shaped decision-making during the pandemic, and how the COVID models failed. Further Reading:David Zweig’s book is An Abundance of Caution: American Schools, the Virus, and a Story of Bad Decisions For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, they answer some audience questions. Further Reading: From Adam Kucharski’s newsletter, Understanding the unseen: Possibly a serious possibility From Silver Bulletin: Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s strikes on Iran. How can we understand this developing situation, without falling prey to our own biases? And when nuclear weapons are involved, how do risk calculations change?Plus, Nate and Maria recap another week at the World Series of Poker, which wouldn’t be complete without some controversy.For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed? We're sharing this special episode of Cautionary Tales in which Nate and Maria make an appearance to answer listener questions with CT host Tim Harford.For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system is supposed to help a consensus candidate win…but, does it? Finally, they talk about Nate’s recent trip to the Manifest conference in Berkeley, and why they’ve become more skeptical of the idea that artificial superintelligence might soon transform the world. Further Reading: Silver Bulletin guest post by Joel Wertheimer: Can anyone beat Cuomo? And is it Zohran? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria are back in Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker 2025. They discuss a key rule change that will have a major effect on their strategy. Then, they’re joined by a Risky Business listener who gets a crash course in tournament play. Finally, they look back on their own early days at the WSOP. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer a listener question about how the US government can make better decisions. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

ChatGPT is amazing at many things…but it can’t seem to figure out poker. Nate and Maria explain why, and talk about the implications for artificial general intelligence. Plus, they discuss Trump vs. Harvard, round two. Further Reading: Silver Bulletin: ChatGPT Is Shockingly Bad at Poker Harvard Derangement Syndrome, by Steven Pinker For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign and Silicon Valley. Also: Conspiracy theories and the NBA draft. Further Reading: Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again Elizabeth Holmes’ Partner Has a New Blood-Testing Startup The Mavs’ Cooper Flagg lottery miracle fuels conspiracy theories – and hope For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria revisit their conclave predictions, and discuss Maria’s recent win in Monte Carlo. Then the talk about college students’ rampant use of ChatGPT to cheat on assignments, and how colleges and professors might be able to catch up. Further Reading: From New York Magazine: Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker and her move into the world of finance (she now works for Jane Street Capital). They also discuss why, at her first job in finance, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.