We’re closing out the year with some of our (and your) favorite episodes to date. First up: Nate and Maria’s conversation with Philadelphia 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Nate and Maria give out their second annual awards for decision-making in 2025: Who made the best decision this year? Who made the worst? Who were 2025’s biggest nits and degens? And which host had the best poker year? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Nate has ridden in a Waymo, and it was like stepping into the future. Maria’s never been in one, but she’s been stuck behind a lot of autonomous vehicles… They swap human-driven car horror stories and discuss some of the risks and benefits of a future full of self-driving cars. From the New York Times: The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Maria finally gets to reveal a project she’s been working on that’s been kept under wraps, and then it’s movie night on Risky Business! Nate and Maria talk about their favorite poker movies and explain why portrayals of poker for a movie audience often don’t get the game quite right. Plus, they share what poker movie they’d like to make and who’d play them in it. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
We’re sharing a preview of another podcast, Deep Cover Presents: Snowball, that Maria participated in. Snowball follows journalist Ollie Wards as he unravels the wild story of how his family lost everything after their brush with a charming Californian con woman. He embarks on a question to find out how she did it, why she did it, and where she is now. Here’s a preview of Snowball. If you can’t wait to find out what happens, binge episodes of Deep Cover Presents: Snowball early and ad-free with a Pushkin+ subscription. Find Pushkin+ on the Deep Cover show page in Apple Podcasts or at pushkin.fm/plus.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Here’s a preview of another podcast we enjoy, Odd Lots with Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal. Odd Lots has some of the most interesting conversations in finance, markets and economics, and every episode has the “perfect guest” – from truckers and bakers to portfolio managers and CEOs. As longtime financial journalists with a wide breadth of experience, Joe and Tracy dive into everything from poultry farming to AI valuations, as well as big questions about manufacturing, geopolitics, central banking and much more. New episodes drop on Mondays, Thursdays and Fridays wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Nate and Maria game out the comparative benefits (and risks) of flying vs. driving vs. taking the train when traveling for the holidays. They also discuss Olivia Nuzzi’s new memoir, her ex-fiancé Ryan Lizza’s substack revelations about her, and the current state of journalistic ethics. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
According to the science, it really is better to give than receive. Donating a dollar; sharing a kind word or lending someone a hand changes lives, but can also hugely boost your happiness. So we're teaming up with other podcasts from Hidden Brain to Revisionist History to ask you to give to a charity helping some of the poorest people around. We're calling it #PodsFightPoverty. Go to givedirectly.org/happinesslab right now and give whatever you can. And the first $500,000 we donate will be matched thanks to our friends at Giving Multiplier! Even a small donation will make you feel good and have a much larger impact on the world than you thought possible. To help inspire you, this special episode examines the science of giving and shares stories of heartwarming and impactful acts of kindness. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This week we answer a question from listener Brandon, who’s noticed a rise in performance-enhancing drugs outside of sports. Nate and Maria discuss their own philosophies on PEDs, their impact on equilibriums, and what people risk when they decide to juice. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The WSOP’s NO LIMIT docuseries has been scrubbed from the internet following revelations that it includes AI-generated content, despite creator Dustin Ianotti’s explanation that the material “tracked closely” with other quotes and was only used for “faster scene transitions and narrative pacing." For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Most people are bad at spotting bluffs and tells – but there are ways to get better. Nate and Maria discuss tips and tricks from the poker table s with a live audience at Ludlow House in New York City. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
After months of resistance, President Trump made a striking reversal on the Epstein files this week, signaling he would sign legislation to release them. Nate and Maria discuss whether this is the start of a “lame duck” spiral for Trump, and whether (or to what extent) it will impact his tenure if the files do finally come to light. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Humanity’s attempts to achieve artificial superintelligence will be our downfall, according to If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. That’s the new book out by AI experts Nates Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky. And while their provocation may feel extreme in this moment when AI slop abounds and the media is hyping a bubble on the verge of bursting, Soares is so convinced of his argument that he’s calling for a complete stop to AI development. Today on the show, Nate and Maria ask Soares how he came to this conclusion and what everyone else is missing. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Despite a blue wave in recent state and local elections, Senate Democrats caved to Republican demands on the shutdown, giving up the health care subsidies they started the shutdown over nearly 50 days ago. Nate and Maria argue that the Democrats are squandering their momentum, and discuss the consequences for key figures like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. They also reflect on the election of Zohran Mamdani, the Mayor-Elect of New York City, and talk about the difference between campaigns and reality. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
From social media and dynamic pricing to meme stocks and AI hype, gamification has taken over our lives—and a recent op-ed argues that it’s even spread into our economy, driven by Trump. Nate and Maria discuss the psychology behind the “casino economy” and why speculation and risk are so addicting. They talk about what it means when governments, businesses, and individuals lean into risk even as buffers against bad bets shrink—and why it’s easy not to object until it’s already too late. Further Reading: From the New York Times: It Is Trump’s Casino Economy Now. You’ll Probably Lose For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
With traffic down, gambling down, and hotel prices bottoming out, everyone’s asking: Is Las Vegas dead? Nate and Maria wade into the frenzy with some real data and hard-won experience. They talk about why casinos are struggling, what this indicates for the broader economy, and why high-end steak houses are, in fact, a recession indicator. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Last week, two federal indictments and several high-profile arrests rocked the NBA. One indictment accused defendants of sharing insider information to cheat at sports betting, and the other accused over 30 co-conspirators, including members of various mafia families, of rigging poker games. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Nate and Maria sit down with the elite amateur runner Nicholas Thompson (who also happens to be the CEO of The Atlantic) to talk about his new book The Running Ground. They discuss what running can teach about productivity and fulfillment, his favorite brand of gels, and…his late-father’s brothel in Bali. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
We have a special episode for you today! In which Nate and Maria join their fellow Pushkin hosts to dive deep into the art of failure. Tim Harford of Cautionary Tales shares stories of minor mistakes with massive consequences. Jonathan Goldstein of Heavyweight speaks with his friend, the writer Sheila Heti about the cost of mistakes and whether we're really in control of how many we make. And, our very own Nate and Maria give a gambler's take on the strange science of regret. Cautionary Tales and Heavyweight are available wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Over the weekend, some 5 million people across the United States marched in ‘No Kings’ protests. Nate and Maria sit down to talk about why this matters, the psychology of protests, and how Democratic strategists can build on the momentum going forward. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.