SETA DC

For the last seventy years, experts have tried to define the nature of Turkey’s partnership with the US. While Turkish-US relations have always been susceptible to different crises, they enjoyed a brief “golden era” in the 1950s. This book argues that a false nostalgia about that period – when the strategic interests of two countries fully converged – has distorted analyses by scholars and policymakers ever since. To provide a more accurate assessment, this book look at the patterns of crises between the two countries throughout history and how these relate to the current points of tension in Turkish-American relations today. It coins a new conceptual framework to understand the Turkey-US partnership: the “vulnerable partnership”. The book outlines the key causes of this vulnerability, showing that for the last 70 years, there have been recurring frictions and faultlines that have been repeated across different political periods. These especially involve the US congress, public opinion, Russia, and crises in the Middle East. Based on journalistic, archival and scholarly sources, the topic of the book is at the intersection foreign policy studies, Middle East politics, the history of Turkish-American relations, and foreign policy making. The SETA Foundation at Washington, DC is pleased to host a book event to discuss Kilic Bugra Kanat’s new book, Mapping the Fault Lines in Turkey-US Relations.   Speaker: Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC   Moderator: Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington, DC

The Biden administration’s unwavering support for Israel’s operations in Gaza has created intense criticism domestically and abroad. Democratic Party’s primary results from key states like Michigan and Minnesota indicated a substantial number of “uncommitted” votes against administration’s refusal to call for an immediate ceasefire. Recent statements from US leaders signaled a growing discomfort with Israel’s strategy to accomplish its self-declared goal of eradicating Hamas. President Biden, who had previously cast doubt on the reported number of casualties in Gaza, drew a “red line” saying he could not accept 30,000 more Palestinians dead. Similarly, Senator Schumer openly criticized Prime Minister Netanyahu, calling for a change in Israeli leadership. Yet, Netanyahu remains defiant, dismissing both leaders’ concerns and asserting that his policies enjoy broad support within Israel. As Israel’s military operations continue to escalate, with Rafah notably not spared from the conflict, the humanitarian situation becomes extremely dire. It is not clear what costs the administration might be willing to impose on Tel Aviv in an election year. As the international community appears unable to change the dynamics on the ground, what are the policy options for the US? Are we witnessing a shift in US policy towards Israel? Can the US pressure halt the humanitarian crisis? The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to shed light on the evolution of US policy on Israel’s war in Gaza.   Speakers Daniel Levy, President, US/Middle East Project, European Council on Foreign Relations Lara Friedman, President, the Foundation for Middle East Peace Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, the SETA Foundation at Washington DC  Moderator Kilic Kanat, Research Director, the SETA Foundation at Washington DC

The United States has approved the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye after Turkish Grand National Assembly ratified Sweden’s NATO membership. The State Department notified U.S. Congress of the $23bn agreement to sell the aircraft, modernization kits, and other equipment. These developments indicate that we are nearing the conclusion of the long-debated F-16 issue which should have been a rather routine and less politicized arms deal between the two NATO allies. Many observers regard the sale of F-16s a glimmer of hope for improving bilateral ties. The sale might serve as an opportunity to begin a new chapter by addressing mutual distrust and promoting cooperation between the two countries. What are the remaining steps for the completion of the sale? What is the importance of the F-16s for Türkiye’s security needs? What are the implications of the F-16 deal’s for the U.S.-Türkiye defense relations, and how does this influence their broader partnership? Will this momentum spillover to other issue areas where significant differences remain? The SETA Foundation in Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to discuss the F-16 deal’s implications for the U.S.-Türkiye relations. Speakers Burhanettin Duran, General Coordinator, The SETA Foundation Mustafa Kibaroglu, Professor of International Relations, MEF University Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC Moderator Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Weeks of an intense Israeli bombardment campaign following Hamas’s October 7 attack have created unprecedented devastation in Gaza, resulting in the tragic loss of more than 13,000 civilian lives, most of whom are women and children. Survivors grapple with acute scarcity and a dearth of essential commodities, including potable water and medicinal supplies. Alarmingly, the international community's efforts to address the humanitarian situation have been insufficient in the face of Israel’s refusal to declare a ceasefire. There are worries that the ongoing regional escalation might turn into a broader conflict. Several countries have called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and offered to mediate. Türkiye has proposed a guarantorship mechanism, involving regional countries, with the aim of establishing durable peace in Palestine. Given this complicated picture, what immediate actions should the international community take to address the humanitarian disaster unfolding in Gaza? What might the framework of an internationally sanctioned peace settlement look like? Is such an arrangement feasible and attainable in the near term? How can mediation efforts lead to de-escalation, prevent a regional war, and lead to lasting peace?   The SETA Foundation in Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to discuss Israel’s war in Gaza and the prospects for achieving peace between Israel and Palestine.   Speakers Khaled Elgindy, Senior Fellow, Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, Middle East Institute    Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft   Randa Slim, Senior Fellow and Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, Middle East Institute   Moderator Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Last week, a critical NATO summit took place in Vilnius, Lithuania, featuring leaders from member states. Turkish President Erdogan set a positive tone by clearing the way for Sweden’s NATO membership. A cordial meeting between Presidents Erdogan and Biden echoed a mutual intention to foster a favorable future for Turkish-American relations. This positive tone peaked with a critical understanding – the Biden administration’s strong support to supply F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye, resolving a period of uncertainty. The summit left observers pondering the future of this newfound enthusiasm for cooperation between the two countries. The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to shed light on US-Türkiye relations in the wake NATO’s Vilnius summit.   Speakers Luke Coffey, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC   Moderator Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

This year marks the seventh anniversary of the July 15 coup attempt. Standing as a testament to the Turkish people's unwavering commitment to democracy, the failure of the coup attempt constituted a critical turning point in Türkiye’s recent history. This pivotal event has left a strong imprint on the nation's foreign policy trajectory with far-reaching implications. Türkiye found itself grappling with a myriad of foreign policy challenges, including the terror threat emanating from Syria, rocky relations with the U.S., and the war in Ukraine among others. What are the long-lasting reverberations of the July 15 coup attempt within the framework of Turkish foreign policy? What facets of foreign policy were predominantly reshaped by the coup attempt? Has the recent NATO Vilnius Summit signaled a potential shift in the dynamics of Türkiye’s relations with the West? The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to shed light on the July 15 coup attempt’s lasting impact on Turkish foreign policy. Speakers Michael Reynolds, Associate Professor of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University Rich Outzen, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council in Turkey Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC Moderator Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to shed light on Turkish foreign policy after the elections. Speakers Burhanettin Duran, General Coordinator at The SETA Foundation Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC Moderator Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Türkiye has completed its pivotal presidential elections, with nearly 54 million individuals casting their votes. Erdogan secured 52% of the votes, earning him another presidential term. The question that stands at the forefront is: what were the key factors behind Erdogan's success? What are the messages that the Turkish electorate sought to convey through their votes? Going forward, what will be the nature of the relationship between the legislative and executive branches in the wake of these results? And what will be the implications for domestic and international policy?   The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to shed light on the Turkish presidential election results, evaluate the candidates' performance since the first round, and discuss policy implications.   Speakers Burhanettin Duran, General Coordinator at The SETA Foundation   Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC   Moderator Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Turkish citizens are going to polls this Sunday for the second round of Turkish presidential elections. The race is a contest between the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Having registered a 5-point lead in the first round, Erdogan approaches this critical phase with robust support while the opposition has been trying to recalibrate their message given the disappointing results in the first round. Election predictions have become more complex as the presidential hopeful Sinan Ogan, who received about 5% of the votes in the first round, endorsed Erdogan, while his supporter the Victory Party declared its support for Kilicdaroglu. How will these new endorsements alter the candidates' likelihood of success? Were there any notable policy position shifts? What sort of Türkiye can we expect to wake up to next Monday?   The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to shed light on the Turkish presidential election runoff, discuss the trends since the first round, and evaluate candidates' chances of success.    Speakers   Burhanettin Duran, General Coordinator at The SETA Foundation   Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC   Moderator   Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Turkish citizens cast their votes in one of the most significant elections in the country’s recent history. Over 54 million people exercised their democratic rights during this critical juncture. The People’s Alliance claimed victory in the parliamentary elections, securing a substantial majority. Meanwhile, President Erdogan maintained a lead of at least four points against his main rival, Kilicdaroglu. As of Sunday evening, it appears that the country is set for a runoff election in two weeks. Looking ahead, the crucial question that lingers is – what lies in store for the nation? What strategies will the presidential candidates adopt as they move forward? How will the outcome of this election influence Türkiye’s future both domestically and on the international stage. The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to shed light on Turkish election results, discuss the new parliamentary composition and explore potential runoff scenarios. SpeakersBurhanettin Duran, General Coordinator at The SETA FoundationKilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC ModeratorKadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

With the pivotal presidential and parliamentary elections in Türkiye only a few days away, the political climate is intensifying. The People’s Alliance and the Nation Alliance are embroiled in a stiff competition, each striving to secure a majority in the Turkish Parliament. Adding to the high stakes, incumbent President Erdogan faces a challenge from the main opposition’s Kilicdaroglu and ATA’s Ogan. Memleket Party’s Ince, on the other hand, has unexpectedly withdrawn from the race, rendering the outcome of the elections even more unpredictable. The upcoming elections carry far-reaching consequences, poised to shape the nation’s political landscape for the next five years and define its economic outlook as well as national security. The outcome will also have critical foreign policy implications for the regions surrounding Türkiye. The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to shed light on the forthcoming Turkish elections, explore the candidates’ chances of success, and discuss potential outcomes. Speakers Burhanettin Duran, General Coordinator at The SETA Foundation İlnur Çevik, Presidential Chief Advisor   Moderator Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Türkiye approaches its pivotal presidential and parliamentary elections as the nation's political landscape becomes increasingly more competitive with the People's Alliance and the Nation Alliance vying for majority in the Turkish Parliament. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is being challenged by three candidates including the main opposition's Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Memleket Party’s Muharrem İnce, and ATA alliance’s Sinan Oğan. These elections will have far-reaching consequences, as they will not only shape Türkiye's political landscape for the next five years but also set the tone for economic outlook, national security, and regional stability. The outcome will have significant foreign policy implications for the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, relations with the EU and the US as well as neighboring countries. In the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes, voters will judge the candidates' ability to rebuild the country, address the sensitive topics around Kurdish, Alevi and refugee issues, combat terrorism, and address regional challenges. The stakes are high as the results of these elections will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping Türkiye's future both domestically and on the international stage.The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to shed light on the forthcoming Turkish elections, explore the candidates' chances of success, and discuss potential outcomes. SpeakersBurhanettin Duran, General Coordinator at The SETA FoundationTalha Köse, Chair, Political Science and International Relations Department, Ibn Haldun UniversityModeratorKilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

As the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East continues to evolve, several key developments have introduced new dynamics in Turkish-Iranian bilateral ties. The shifting dynamics in Syria have placed Tehran at odds with Ankara during the crisis, but the two regional powers have managed to engage in dialogue through the Astana process, alongside Russia. As Turkish-Syrian relations have shown signs of thawing in recent months, the potential implications for Türkiye-Iran relations remain uncertain. The recent Iran-Saudi Arabia deal, brokered by China, marks a significant milestone in regional diplomacy in a new era of rapprochement between two long-term rivals. The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, as well as the lack of progress in the nuclear file, have potentially significant implications for Türkiye’s relations with Iran. How will the Astana process impact their bilateral ties? Can the Iran-Saudi rapprochement open new doors for stability in the Middle East? What role does Iran’s nuclear program play in shaping Türkiye’s perspective on the regional dynamics? The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to convene a panel of experts to shed light on the complex regional factors influencing Turkish-Iranian bilateral ties. Speakers Alex Vatanka, Founding Director of the Iran Program, Middle East Institute Hakkı Uygur, President, Center for Iranian Studies (İRAM) Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC Moderator Kilic Kanat, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

With the start of the war in Ukraine, NATO has been faced with numerous challenges including reassuring allies, reinforcing common defense, and considering the alliance’s enlargement to the north. Finland and Sweden’s requests for a fast-track NATO membership emerged as a significant focus for the alliance, as these countries decided to abandon their historically neutral position toward Russia. Türkiye sought assurances from these candidate countries regarding terrorism as a prerequisite for joining NATO. Having completed the items outlined in the Trilateral agreement, Finland became the 31st NATO member after receiving Türkiye’s endorsement. Even though Ankara supports NATO’s open door policy as a matter of principle, it expects Sweden to assuage Turkish concerns prior to admission. What implications will Finland’s accession to NATO have on the future of NATO? Can Sweden meet the Turkish expectations before the NATO Summit in July in Vilnius? What are the implications of NATO’s enlargement for Ukraine’s hopes for membership?   The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to host a distinguished expert panel discussion on NATO’s enlargement with Finland’s entry, Türkiye’s reservations about Sweden’s application, and the growing support for Ukraine’s membership. Speakers Amb. James Jeffrey, Chair of the Middle East Program at Wilson Center Burhanettin Duran, General Coordinator at The SETA Foundation Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC   Moderator Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

In recent months, tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean reached new heights amidst war of words between Greek and Turkish leadership. Türkiye has accused Greece of militarizing the Aegean islands in contravention of international agreements while the Greek leadership leveled accused Turkey of threatening Greek sovereignty. Türkiye has also expressed its discomfort with American military hardware to be deployed to the islands and the recent lifting of arms embargo to Greek Cypriots. The two NATO allies, Greece and Türkiye, have had these episodes of increased tensions in the past but this latest round might have serious implications for the unity within the alliance in the wake of the war in Ukraine. There are also concerns about traditional U.S. policy of keeping the balance between Greece and Türkiye in terms of arms sales and transfers. The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to organize an expert panel discussion on the dynamics and future implications of recent tensions between Greece and Turkiye. Speakers Mitat Çelikpala, Professor of International Relations and the Dean of Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences at Kadir Has University Nurşin Güney, Professor of International Relations at Nişantaşı University Kılıç Kanat, Research Director, SETA DC Moderator Kadir Ustun, Executive Director