I just finished reading Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book 1929, which relies on a lot of previously unpublished material to tell the story of the Great Crash through some of the protagonists. For those who enjoy economic history or even a good story, this will not disappoint. Benjamin Strong ran the Federal Reserve until his […]
The link between inflation and fee increases for liquids pipelines doesn’t draw much attention, but it proved to be valuable to midstream investors three years ago when the Biden administration’s excessive stimulus drove the Producer Price Index (PPI) up 13%. Maintaining purchasing power is the goal of most long-term investors. Inflation is reasonably close to […]
Last week there were two pieces of news that confirmed the bullish long term outlook for natural gas. On Thursday the WSJ reported on the Behind The Meter (BTM) arrangements that are becoming common (see AI Data Centers, Desperate for Electricity, Are Building Their Own Power Plants). This is faster than connecting with the grid […]
The last few weeks have been challenging for the bullish story on natural gas. On Thursday evening Venture Global (VG) disclosed that they’d lost an arbitration case with BP over their Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal. The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) found that VG had breached its obligation to make a timely declaration of the […]
BP recently published their 2025 Energy Outlook. When big oil producers make projections about consumption it becomes a political document. Climate extremists are quick to accuse companies of opposing the energy transition and consigning the world to ruinous warming. Yet capital commitments need to be based on rational expectations, not aspirational ones. Earlier this year […]
The energy sector is leaving investors unimpressed. YTD the American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) is +5% and seems to be marking time. The S&P500, increasingly dominated by tech and AI exposure, is +13%. Long-time clients, having enjoyed several strong years, hope the better days will soon return. More recent investors demand to know what’s gone […]
Investors are routinely advised to incorporate some international exposure into their portfolios. This can be to add diversification or, in the case of emerging markets, to participate in faster-growing economies. For a US-based investor, this is at best a waste of time. Worse, it can introduce unneeded complexity, cost and poor returns. By investing in […]
I’m traveling in Italy and am not so distracted by the cultural and culinary delights to have overlooked the news on NextDecade (NEXT). I’ve watched the subsequent stock price fall with disappointment. They lowered EBITDA guidance on Trains 1-5 from $1.1BN (midpoint of prior $0.9-1.3BN) to $1BN, starting in 2030. Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is […]
President Trump continues to heap pressure on the FOMC to cut rates, to the alarm of every economist and bond analyst. Central bank independence is the gold standard for western nations, the only way to assure that politicians don’t seek to juice growth synchronized with the election cycle. Fed chair William McChesney Martin Jr, who […]
Many years ago, when we were researching silver mining companies, I was fascinated to learn how insensitive production and consumption were to prices. Unlike gold, which is mostly held as an investment, silver has many industrial uses. Consumer electronics represents over a third of demand. Silver has few good substitutes and is a comparatively small […]
Goldman Sachs released a report last week forecasting that Brent crude will slip into “the low $50s” by late next year. It currently trades at around $66 per barrel, down $8 from its year-end level end and $11 over the past year. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in their most recent Short Term Energy Outlook […]
Now that we’re more than six months into Trump 2.0, comparisons with Trump 1.0 are spreading. For energy investors, Trump’s first term was a huge disappointment compared with the high expectations held by many when he took office. A year ago, as investors pondered the impact of a Kamala Harris presidency, we were often asked […]
Most LNG export terminals are built when three quarters or more of their liquefaction capacity has been pre-sold to customers. This ensures that the project will generate cash needed to repay its financiers, since there’s not much else you can do with it other than export natural gas. Buyers have to pay the agreed liquefaction […]
The other day I listened to an interview with the CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, on an Economist magazine podcast. Anthropic is in AI safety and research. They write large language models for sectors including healthcare and financial services. Many people think AI will create such fundamental change that it will eliminate jobs across large […]
On Wednesday Energy Transfer (ET) announced plans to extend its Transwestern Pipeline from Waha in the Permian Basin in west Texas to Phoenix. The Desert Southwest expansion project will improve the egress of natural gas from a region where it’s often produced along with crude oil, which is generally more desirable. The pipeline will support […]
July was action-packed for LNG names. On July 11 Morgan Stanley raised their price target on NextDecade (NEXT) to $15, having last moved it to $10 in October 2022. The stock rose 18% to $10.77 on the news and added further gains during the month. Morgan Stanley’s upgrade was the only news of note, but […]
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen described the US-EU trade agreement as “huge”, demonstrating a helpful grasp of President’s Trump’s lexicon. The imposition of tariffs and the threat of punitive ones has gone remarkably smoothly. That may not always be so, but for now markets are buoyant and inflation only modestly higher. The White […]
PJM Interconnection announced the results of their capacity auction last week. This is where suppliers of electricity quote prices to provide surge capacity for periods of high demand (typically hot summer days). It used to be uneventful until last year, when the clearing price was 9X higher than before. This led to the price hikes […]
The revenue and earnings outlook for the energy sector has deteriorated this year. Alone among the S&P 500’s eleven sectors, FactSet shows declining revenues of –9.6% when companies report for the second quarter based on bottom-up analyst forecasts. 2025 opened with high expectations following Trump’s election victory. And while the White House has followed through […]
Kinder Morgan (KMI) kicked off pipeline earnings season last week, as they do every quarter. Their adjusted EBITDA came in a little ahead of expectations at $1.97BN vs $1.95BN. Management guidance was positive. LNG exports and data center power needs are the two growth drivers for natural gas pipelines. KMI’s Trident Intrastate Pipeline secured […]