STR Data Lab™ by AirDNA

After several challenging years for short-term rental operators, are things finally starting to turn around? In this episode of The STR Data Lab, AirDNA’s Chief Economist Jamie Lane and Bram Gallagher break down September’s STR performance data and explore what slowing supply growth, improving occupancy, and stronger nightly rates mean for hosts, property managers, and investors heading into the holiday season and 2027.The conversation explores the economic forces shaping the STR industry, from elevated mortgage rates and cautious consumers to a housing market that’s limiting new competition. With supply growth slowing dramatically and pricing power improving in many markets, existing operators may finally be getting some breathing room. But the outlook isn’t the same everywhere. The hosts examine why Western ski markets are facing a different booking trajectory, how lead times affect demand forecasts, and why New Year’s could present a particularly strong opportunity for operators.Will supply growth turn negative? Which markets are showing signs of recovery? And what should hosts be watching as they prepare for the months ahead? Jamie and Bram unpack the latest data, discuss the risks and opportunities, and share their outlook for the remainder of the year and beyond. You don’t want to miss this episode!Key TakeawaysWhy slowing STR supply growth could improve occupancy and give operators more pricing power.How rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty are affecting new listings and investment decisions.Why forward booking trends are improving nationally while Western ski markets face a different outlook.How calendar effects could make New Year’s a major opportunity for higher occupancy and nightly rates.Why STR supply growth could remain extremely low—or even turn negative—heading into 2027.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4j6s6qy —————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Bram on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bram-gallagher/—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 201

The short-term rental industry is entering a new era—and the old playbook for growth may no longer work. In this milestone 200th episode of The STR Data Lab recorded live at the VRMA conference, AirDNA Chief Economist Jamie Lane takes a data-driven look at where the industry stands today, from slowing supply growth and stabilizing occupancy to shifting traveler demand and a challenging housing market. For hosts, property managers, and STR professionals, the message is clear: when industry-wide growth slows, outperforming the competition matters more than ever.Jamie then looks ahead at the five forces that could define the next few years: the economy, online travel agencies, the “sorting” of STR businesses by quality, the housing market, and AI. He explores why strong reviews and operational performance are becoming increasingly important, how AI-powered travel agents could reshape discovery and bookings, and why the next wave of AI-driven productivity could ultimately create more demand for travel.The biggest opportunity may be learning to distinguish between what you can control and what you can’t. From choosing your markets and distribution channels to improving property quality and preparing for AI-driven changes in how travelers search and book, this episode offers a practical framework for navigating a slower-growth, more competitive STR landscape.You don’t want to miss this 200th-episode look at what’s next for the short-term rental industry.5 Practical TakeawaysPrepare for slower supply growth. With U.S. STR supply growth dramatically below the levels seen in recent years, winning market share increasingly requires outperforming competitors rather than simply riding industry-wide growth.Treat reviews as a business metric. Higher property and management ratings can have a meaningful impact on RevPAR, owner retention, and the ability to attract new properties.Diversify your distribution strategy. OTAs remain a major source of demand, but emerging AI travel agents could change how travelers discover and book accommodations. Make sure your listings can be found and understood by these new systems.Keep an eye on housing and local opportunities. A weak housing market can constrain overall supply growth while also creating opportunities in markets where motivated sellers and changing home values open new investment possibilities.Use AI strategically—not automatically. Automating repetitive work can improve productivity, but the premium experiences travelers value may depend on human interaction, personalization, and service. The goal is to automate intelligently while preserving what guests are willing to pay more for.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4j6s6qy—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 200

What happens when a vacation rental executive who has experienced the industry at virtually every level decides to go back to the basics? In this episode of The STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane sits down with Bob Milne, COO and President of First Chair Destinations, to unpack decades of lessons from building, scaling, and reshaping vacation rental management businesses. From running thousands of homes in Steamboat to navigating Wyndham and Vacasa, Bob shares why he believes vacation rentals are ultimately a hospitality and relationship business—not simply a technology business.The conversation explores the tradeoffs between scale and local operations, what can—and can't—be centralized, the challenges of proprietary technology, and what Bob learned from Vacasa's rapid growth and transition to a more localized model. He also dives into why ski destinations offer opportunities beyond the traditional winter season, how events and summer demand can reshape seasonality, the role professional managers can play in local regulation, and why First Chair is pursuing moderate, deliberate growth rather than growth for growth's sake.You don’t want to miss this episode!Key TakeawaysWhy vacation rental management is fundamentally a people and hospitality business, and where technology can—and can't—replace local expertise.Which parts of a vacation rental business actually benefit from scale, from technology and marketing to operations and owner communications.What the transition from Vacasa's national model to more localized operations reveals about the importance of boots-on-the-ground teams.How ski destinations can reduce seasonality by tapping into summer travel, weddings, events, outdoor recreation, and improved air access.Why sustainable growth may require a different approach than rapid expansion, particularly when balancing owner retention, local relationships, and operational quality.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4j6s6qy—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Bob Milne, President/COO at First Chair DestinationsLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robertemilne/Website: https://www.firstchair.com/—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 199

The U.S. short-term rental market may look weaker at first glance—but the latest data tells a more nuanced story. In this episode of The STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane and Bram Gallagher unpack August performance and explain why headline declines in demand and occupancy don't tell the whole story. A calendar shift around Labor Day significantly affected year-over-year comparisons, while underlying demand, ADR growth, and slowing supply point to a market that remains surprisingly resilient.The conversation also digs into what rising mortgage rates mean for future STR supply, why World Cup-related listings have proven more durable than expected, and where operators may find opportunities as the market evolves. From coastal and mountain destinations continuing to see strong ADR growth to small-city and rural markets attracting demand and investment, the data reveals a growing divergence across markets—and a potential shift toward value-conscious travel.You don’t want to miss this episode!Key TakeawaysLook beyond headline numbers. Calendar effects, including the timing of Labor Day, can dramatically change year-over-year comparisons for demand and occupancy.Supply growth is slowing. Rising mortgage rates are putting pressure on new STR supply, which could give existing operators more pricing power and reduce competition.World Cup supply is proving durable. Roughly 80% of new listings in World Cup host cities that rented during the event also rented in August, suggesting much of the new supply is sticking around.Opportunity is shifting geographically. Small-city and rural markets—particularly those near major demand generators like national parks—continue to show strong supply and demand growth.Value may matter more. As consumers face persistent inflation and higher costs, well-positioned midscale and affordable properties may be especially well placed to capture demand.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4j6s6qy—————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Bram on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bram-gallagher/—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 198

Doubling your property management portfolio is one thing. Doubling it while maintaining top-tier guest reviews is another. In this episode of The STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane sits down with returning guests Joe and Max Bachmeier, whose property management business grew from roughly 120 to 260 listings in just 12 months—while remaining among the highest-rated property managers in the country. They break down what actually drove that growth, from consistent local marketing and referrals to building a team capable of scaling the operation without sacrificing the guest or owner experience.A major theme of the conversation is scaling intelligently rather than simply scaling quickly. Joe and Max explain how they use their “three C’s”—cash, care, and communication—to stay focused on what owners value most, while keeping guests, owners, and their team as three equally important priorities. They also share how AI and automation have changed their approach to guest communication, operations, and revenue management, allowing their team to spend less time answering repetitive questions and more time solving the issues that can have the biggest impact on guest satisfaction.The Bachmeiers also dive into what it takes to compete in an increasingly sophisticated STR market. From redesigning properties around specific guest demographics to using technology to identify listing-level revenue opportunities, they share practical lessons for property managers approaching the 100+ listing mark. Throughout it all, their philosophy remains consistent: build the right team, stay close to your market, and don't let growth come at the expense of quality.You don’t want to miss this episode!Key TakeawaysScale your team before you scale your portfolio. Build a management structure where team members can grow into new roles and train their replacements rather than making the founders the bottleneck.Use the “three C’s” to understand owner priorities: cash, care, and communication. Identify what matters most to each owner and build your service around it.Let AI handle the repetitive work—not the relationship. Automating routine guest questions can free staff to focus on complicated issues and guests who need more hands-on attention.Stay local as you grow. The Buchmeiers have continued concentrating their business primarily in Fredericksburg and Austin rather than expanding indiscriminately into new markets.Invest strategically in the property experience. Thoughtful design, distinctive amenities, and targeting a specific guest demographic can help a property stand out as competition increases.Sign up for AirDNA for FREE 👇https://bit.ly/4j6s6qy —————Connect with Jamie on social mediaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane—————Connect with Bach Bros Property ManagementWebsite: https://www.bachbrosproperties.com/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bachbrosproperties/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/bachbrosproperties/—————Connect with AirDNA on social media:Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.coLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdnaTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co—————Episode 197