Sentinel Minutes

Executive Summary Economy: Weak August US jobs numbers make a September Fed rate cut look more likely. Bond markets are showing signs of stress, and gold prices continue to rise, reflecting growing risks. Geopolitics: French President Macron said 26 nations are ready to provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine. China hosted foreign leaders for talks on economic cooperation and held a large military parade. Biorisk: A large chikungunya outbreak continues to grow in China. Artificial Intelligence: OpenAI faces significant criticism from the attorneys general of California and Delaware over the recent cases of ChatGPT-associated suicide and murder-suicide. Forecasts ---Outline:(00:22) Executive Summary(01:13) Forecasts(03:54) Economy(09:24) Geopolitics(09:27) Asia(10:57) United States(12:53) The Rest of the Americas(13:48) Europe(15:52) Middle East(17:40) Africa(18:15) Artificial Intelligence(21:41) More tech(22:24) Biorisks(22:37) Climate and Nature--- First published: September 8th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/possible-postwar-ukraine-security --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Israeli strike on Yemen kills Houthi prime minister and several cabinet members. Biorisk: New World screwworm spreading northward through the Americas. RFK Jr. fired the CDC director, replacing her with a Thiel protégé. Artificial Intelligence: Anthropic identifies AI-driven cyberattacks. $200M pro-AI lobbying group started by OpenAI President and a16z. Economy: Trump attempted to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over irregularities in her real estate filings, raising the prospect of reduced Fed independence in the future. Forecaster estimates: 42% probability that the Supreme Court upholds at least three quarters of Trump's tariffs by [...] ---Outline:(00:28) Executive summary(01:53) Geopolitics(01:56) Middle East(04:47) Europe(05:43) United States(07:51) The Rest of the Americas(08:50) Asia(09:42) Africa(10:31) Economy(15:16) Artificial Intelligence(19:02) Biorisks(23:17) Other--- First published: September 1st, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/houthi-pm-and-cabinet-killed-rfk --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025. Executive summary Top items: Famine: The UN declared a famine in Gaza. Geopolitics: Putin clarifies Russia's stringent terms for a ceasefire. The US is moving Navy ships with 2.2K Marines to waters off the coast of Venezuela. Tech and AI: DeepSeek released its V3.1 model, a more capable open-source model. Biorisk: The American Academy of Pediatrics’ recommendations for Covid vaccines for children now differ from those of the CDC; recommendations that diverge from the CDC's official list are not shielded from liability. Forecaster estimates: What is the chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between [...] ---Outline:(00:31) Executive summary(02:07) Geopolitics(02:09) Europe(05:08) Middle East(05:11) Gaza(08:06) Iran(08:29) Yemen(08:40) United States(12:00) The Rest of the Americas(13:58) Asia(14:00) South Asia(14:29) East Asia(16:52) Africa(17:46) Artificial Intelligence(20:34) Economy(21:46) Other technology(22:15) Biorisks(22:57) Climate and Nature--- First published: August 25th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/un-famine-declaration-us-moving-22k --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK. Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.” And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military. Geopolitics ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(01:10) Geopolitics(01:13) Trump/Putin summit in Alaska(05:12) Middle East(06:22) Europe(07:04) United States(08:31) Elsewhere in America(08:41) Asia(09:38) Africa(10:12) Artificial Intelligence(12:21) Biorisk--- First published: August 18th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/a8f8dd54-e796-4d55-af82-882c3a2f7dd6 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK. Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.” And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military. We are bottlenecked on distribution, so we’d appreciate it if you shared our work with your networks. [...] ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(01:30) Geopolitics(01:33) Trump/Putin summit in Alaska(05:46) Middle East(06:57) Europe(07:44) United States(09:11) Elsewhere in the Americas(09:21) Asia(10:19) Africa(10:53) Artificial Intelligence(13:02) Biorisk--- First published: August 18th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-putin-talks-end-with-no-ceasefire --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Status: green Executive summary Key items this week are: Economy and trade: Trump's new tariff rates for most of the world took effect on August 7. Trump partially followed through on threats of secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners if there wasn’t a stop to the Ukraine war by last Friday, by placing an additional 25% tariff on India, which has been buying Russian oil, starting near the end of this month. Geopolitics: Putin and US envoy Witkoff met in Moscow to discuss conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump and Putin plan to meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss a path towards a ceasefire, without Ukraine. Israel's security cabinet approved a plan to take over Gaza City. [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:33) Biorisk(04:09) Geopolitics(04:12) Russia/Ukraine(07:48) Middle East(07:51) Israel and Gaza(09:22) Iran(11:26) United States(14:53) Asia-Pacific(15:59) Europe and the Caucasus(16:27) Africa(16:58) Tech and AI(21:10) Economy(21:12) Tariffs(22:30) US housing market(23:41) Climate and Nature--- First published: August 11th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/israel-preparing-to-take-over-gaza --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Key items this week are: Economy and trade: Trump announced new tariffs. US GDP growth is driven by AI capex spending while labor slumps. In response to an unfavorable labor report, Trump fired the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Geopolitics: UK, France and Canada announced their intention to recognize a Palestinian state. Hunger is widespread in Gaza and might meet the technical definition of famine later this year, which could serve as a Schelling point for change. Biorisks: Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever and Chikungunya are spreading. A paper on an AI pipeline for AI-aided discovery of antivirals provides hope for a favorable defense/offense balance change for AI. AI: Mark Zuckerberg wrote about personal superintelligence [...] ---Outline:(00:17) Executive summary(03:05) Economy(06:47) Geopolitics(06:50) Middle East(12:46) United States(15:24) Asia-Pacific(17:31) Europe(19:43) Africa(20:13) Biorisk(21:00) Artificial Intelligence(21:03) Meta and Mark(23:36) Climate and Nature--- First published: August 4th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/gaza-hunger-us-gdp-growth-driven --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached... Executive summary Key items this week are: Geopolitical risks: Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached. Israel is being accused of causing mass starvation in Gaza by the WHO and others. Zelensky faced his first large-scale domestic protests over a law weakening the independence of anti-corruption bodies. Economy and trade: The US and the EU reached a trade deal that would tariff EU goods coming into America at 15%. A similar agreement was reached between the US and Japan, which will now also face 15% tariffs on its goods [...] ---Outline:(00:27) Executive summary(02:28) Geopolitics(02:31) Asia(02:34) Thailand and Cambodia(04:15) China and Taiwan(05:51) Singapore(06:12) Europe(09:46) United States(11:40) Africa(12:01) Middle East(12:03) Iran(13:21) Gaza(14:09) Syria(14:44) Afghanistan(15:06) Economy(16:35) AI and Technology(24:41) Biorisks(26:01) Climate and Nature--- First published: July 28th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/thailand-v-cambodia-clashes-erupted --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary Taiwan conducted its largest-ever defense drills to prepare for a possible Chinese invasion, while the US has been pushing Japan and Australia to clarify whether they would get involved in a US-China war over Taiwan. Forecasters estimated the probability of a Chinese invasion by 2027 conditional on Japan saying it would not intervene to be 11.5%, and 22% conditional on Trump or the Defense Secretary saying the US would not intervene. In the Middle East, the Houthis continue to attack Israel, and Israel responded today with strikes on a Houthi-controlled port in Yemen. Israel also intervened in Syria following renewed sectarian violence between Druze and Sunni Bedouin groups, later reaching a ceasefire deal with the Syrian government. OpenAI launched ChatGPT Agent and [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(01:32) Geopolitics(01:35) Asia-Pacific(03:43) Middle East(05:47) Europe(06:52) United States(08:20) Africa(08:30) Technology(14:21) Biorisk(14:40) Economy--- First published: July 21st, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/taiwan-defense-rehearsals-israel --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

The Houthis sank two ships last week, new powerful open source model released. Executive summary The Houthis sank two ships last week, and forecasters estimated the following: Will the Houthis sink at least two ships by August 15? 51% (40% to 60%) Will the US attack the Houthis in the next 30 days? 26.5% (20% to 36%) By the end of August, will the US lower the copper tariff from the promised August 1 rate of 50% to 25% or less? 61% (45% to 70%) xAI released Grok 4, and a Chinese lab, Moonshot AI, released a powerful open-source model, Kimi K2, with 1T parameters. Trump announced another volley of tariff threats unless deals are reached by August 1. [...] ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(01:42) Geopolitics(01:45) Middle East(03:18) Iran(04:03) Europe(05:52) United States(07:01) Asia(07:48) Africa(08:02) Economy(09:12) AI and Technology(12:34) Biorisks(13:10) Climate and Nature--- First published: July 14th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/houthis-sink-ships-us-tariffs-for --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary A major budget reconciliation bill (the “Big Beautiful Bill”) passed in the US and was signed into law—it's massive and might have impacts for your industry. In response, Musk announced the creation of a new “America Party”. Geopolitical conflicts did not flare up. This week, forecasters produced estimates on four questions: Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that begins within the next 30 days and holds for at least a week? 44% (35% to 55%) WIll Israel and Hamas still be fighting at the end of the year? 64% (45% to 77%) Will a ban or moratorium on states regulating AI be part of federal law by 2027? 17% (10% to 35%) What's the [...] ---Outline:(00:17) Executive summary(01:24) Geopolitics(01:27) Middle East(05:05) United States(06:33) Europe(08:38) Asia(09:17) Africa(10:02) Economy(10:53) Artificial Intelligence(13:19) Climate--- First published: July 7th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/big-beautiful-bill-passed-in-the --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Iran, NATO increased spending, video addictions. Executive summary After US airstrikes damaged Iranian nuclear facilities, a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has so far largely held. Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz. Khamenei and the Islamic Republic remain in power; Khamenei is still in hiding and may not be well. Iranian officials have expressed their intent to resume the country's nuclear program, which is a sticking point for potential future negotiations with the US. Forecasters estimate an 8% (5% to 30%) chance of regime change in Iran by the end of August, and a 19% (10% to 70%) chance by the end of the year. On whether Khamenei specifically will officially be in power, their estimates are 85% (65% to 92%) [...] ---Outline:(00:15) Executive summary(01:59) Geopolitics(02:02) Middle East(02:05) Iran(08:44) Gaza(09:44) United States(09:47) Legal(10:37) Tariffs and trade(13:03) Europe(14:07) Asia(14:31) Africa(14:49) AI and Technology(18:12) Biorisks(19:21) Climate and Nature--- First published: June 30th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-262025 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary The US attacked three nuclear sites in Iran, likely setting back their nuclear program by by years, but the locations and future of Iran's nuclear stockpile remain unknown. A weakened Iran will likely respond meekly, although forecasters now deem it more likely than not that Iran will attack a US base in the region. A nuclear detonation in the Middle East is extremely unlikely. Trump suggested that regime change could “Make Iran Great Again”. India continues to oppose the key Indus Waters Treaty that it had previously agreed with Pakistan. Anthropic continued its research into blackmail by AI models. Geopolitics ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(01:04) Geopolitics(01:07) Middle East(10:27) Europe(11:46) United States(13:19) Asia-Pacific(13:45) Africa(14:11) Technology(17:12) Biorisk(18:46) Economy(20:00) Climate and Nature--- First published: June 23rd, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-bombs-iran-india-again-rejects --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

and, the Gentle Singularity. Executive summary Israel attacked Iran's nuclear weapons program and military leadership - Israel and Iran are now at war Anti-ICE and No Kings protests took place in over 2,100 locations in the US and remained largely peaceful Trump steps up deportation plans, backs down from targeting agricultural, hotel and restaurant workers China simultaneously deployed two aircraft carriers in the Pacific The US seeks a peace deal in the Rwanda-Congo conflict by July Sam Altman writes about the “Gentle singularity” The bird flu virus strain that infected a Michigan dairy farmer is capable of airborne transmission Geopolitics ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(01:08) Geopolitics(01:11) Middle East(01:13) Israel v. Iran(14:05) Gaza(14:11) USA(14:14) Trump deportation plans(16:16) Protests(16:57) Reactions against the protests(18:26) Other US(18:45) China/Taiwan(20:24) Africa(20:51) Economy(21:31) Artificial Intelligence(25:38) Biorisks--- First published: June 16th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/israel-attacks-iran-us-protests-continue --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

until midnight NYC time. This article was collaboratively written by: Nuño Sempere, Brian Yu, Kati Conen, Alex Lyzhov, Jaeho Lee and 30+ other contributors. Those of us who are in the US are going to sleep, but the document continues being available and freely editable here, and by the time US readers wake up many new developments may have arisen. Last week, the IAEA found Iran in non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The previous day saw an escalation of tensions and a breakdown of dialogue around the nuclear programme. Today, Israel struck Iran, with known sites being Tabriz, Tehran, Natanz, Kermanshah, Arak, Isfahan, Sanandaj, Ilam, Ahvaz (provincial capital of Khuzestan, Iran's oil-producing province), Chazabeh border crossing in Khuzestan. Israel has aimed for both Iran's nuclear program and its leadership. Although this is a greatly escalatory step, our sense is that this will play out over [...] ---Outline:(02:43) Likely developments(08:02) Markets and Prediction Markets(09:41) Live questions(13:49) Worst-case scenarios(16:15) International Reactions(17:45) Possible actions(18:32) What are some good signals that were right/are useful to look at(19:26) License for this doc: MIT.--- First published: June 13th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/making-sense-of-israels-strike-on --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.