Simply Economics

In today's episode, we delve into the U.S. economic slowdown as new tariffs and policy changes take effect. The OECD revises its GDP growth forecast, highlighting a concerning economic trajectory. We explore the factors contributing to this slowdown, including rising tariffs and inflation, and discuss the potential for stagflation. Join us as we analyze the resilience of certain regions and sectors, and consider the global implications of these economic challenges. Sources: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-economic-outlook-slashed-oecd-trumps-tariffs-upend/story?id=122443152 https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-us-economy-growth-oecd-forecasts-inflation-jobs-incomes-2025-6 https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economic-growth-forecast-cut-sharply-oecd-due-higher-tariffs https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/june-4-2025 https://www.investopedia.com/federal-reserve-the-economy-is-slowing-as-companies-can-t-figure-out-the-rules-of-this-tariff-game-11748450

In today's episode, we delve into the OECD's latest report highlighting a resurgence of global inflationary pressures, particularly in the U.S., due to increased trade barriers. We explore the economic implications of these trends and discuss the OECD's recommendations for policymakers to prioritize reducing trade barriers to foster growth and stabilize prices. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pressing global economic challenges. Sources: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en/full-report/general-assessment-of-the-macroeconomic-situation_3e68d1e3.html https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/06/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_1fd979a8/83363382-en.pdf https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2025/06/04/dcrn-j04.html https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en/full-report/turkiye_2d44f583.html https://www.ainvest.com/news/oecd-slashes-growth-forecasts-tariff-turmoil-clouds-global-outlook-2506/ https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/06/03/oecd-outlook-can-the-global-economy-survive-trade-pressures-in-2025 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/oecd-us-economic-forecast-trump-tariffs-2025-2026/ https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-june-2025-briefing-no-190/ https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/economic-outlook-midyear-2025 https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en.html

In today's episode, we delve into the OECD's latest Economic Outlook, highlighting a more cautious global growth forecast due to rising trade barriers. We also examine the ongoing contraction in the US manufacturing sector, with the latest PMI data indicating persistent challenges. Additionally, we explore the easing inflation trends in the US and their potential impact on Federal Reserve policies. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pressing economic issues. Sources: https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/media-advisories/2025/05/oecd-to-release-latest-economic-outlook-on-tuesday-3-june-2025.html https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en.html https://www.forexlive.com/news/oecd-cuts-global-outlook-as-trump-tariffs-bite-at-us-growth-20250603/ https://www.oecd.org/en/about/newsroom.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooppJsAyI-Q https://www.manufacturingdive.com/news/ism-s-and-p-pmi-may-2025-trump-tariffs/749549/ https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/02/ism-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-may-2025?topic=covid-19-coronavirus-coverage https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/02/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-may-2025 https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ed3c6f6ea79843648c9b8b98824d74f7 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi https://www.morningstar.com/economy/april-pce-report-pce-inflation-index-up-21-softer-than-expected https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-likely-steady-in-april-as-markets-price-federal-reserve-rate-cut-for-september-202505300600 https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/april-2025-pce-inflation https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2025 https://www.metatradingclub.com/april-pce-price-index/

In today's episode, we delve into the complexities of the global economy as the U.S. faces employment challenges amid a declining PMI. We explore the European Central Bank's anticipated interest rate cut and its implications for the eurozone. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada grapples with mixed signals ahead of its rate decision. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pivotal economic developments and their potential impacts. Sources: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/week-ahead-economic-preview-week-of-2-june-2025.html https://features.financialjuice.com/2025/05/30/week-ahead-economic-indicators-2nd-june-6th-june-us/ https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202506011051/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-us-jobs-data-likely-ecb-rate-cut-in-focus https://upstox.com/news/business-news/economy/manufacturing-pmi-falls-to-3-month-low-amid-softer-growth-in-output-orders/article-171181/ https://www.investing.com/analysis/week-ahead-us-jobs-pmis-and-wage-data-could-challenge-feds-softlanding-hopes-200661527 https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250602-ecb-expected-to-cut-rates-again-as-trump-trade-war-rumbles-on https://sofokleous10.gr/2025/06/01/ecb-possible-new-interest-rate-cut-on-thursday-expectation-of-further-reduction-in-inflation/ https://think.ing.com/articles/ecb-to-cut-rates-by-25bp-next-week-with-questions-about-the-direction-of-travel/ https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/265571/will-the-ecb-cut-interest-rates-again-on-june-5.aspx https://www.ainvest.com/news/ecb-cut-rates-25bp-eurozone-faces-trade-war-challenges-2506/ https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-falls-to-near-13700-as-traders-expect-boc-to-keep-rates-steady-in-june-202506020439 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/ https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/265553/will-the-bank-of-canada-cut-interest-rates%C2%A0.aspx https://www.firstnational.ca/commercial/resources-insights/article/on-the-radar--will-the-bank-of-canada-cut-rates-on-june-4 https://cdhowe.org/publication/mpcmay29/

Explore the dramatic surge in US foreign investment, with net inflows reaching $350 billion, and its implications for global markets. Delve into the eurozone's economic stagnation and the European Central Bank's anticipated rate cut. Plus, understand the weakening US dollar's impact on international trade and currency markets. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pivotal economic developments. Sources: https://www.ubs.com/us/en/assetmanagement/insights/market-updates/articles/2025-06-macro-monthly.html https://www.marctomarket.com/2025/05/june-2025-monthly.html https://afsa.org/advancing-us-economic-interests-overseas-era-rising-tariffs https://www.nb.com/handlers/documents.ashx?id=8b8ad3e7-59aa-4a02-97e6-da5ece862508 https://sundayguardianlive.com/business/fpi-inflows-peaked-in-may-2025-says-nsd https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/emea/eurozone-economic-outlook.html https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/05/30/eurozone-disinflation-on-track-as-price-pressures-ease-in-germany-italy-and-spain https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/updated-scenario-forecasts-Economic-Research-19-2025-5/19/2025,51187 https://www.markets.com/news/week-ahead-ecb-interest-rate-decision-and-u-s-nfp-in-spotlight/ https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/265519/eurozone-inflation-what-to-expect-from-mays-data.aspx https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/forex-seasonality-june-2025-bullish-tailwinds-for-eurusd-audusd/ https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/investment-outlook-midyear-2025 https://www.marctomarket.com/2025/05/june-2025-monthly.html https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/06/usdzar-monthly-forecast-01-june-2025/228995 https://www.careedgeglobal.com/upload/RatingReportPDF/Shifting%20Tides%20in%20Currency%20Markets-%20CareEdge%20Report.pdf

In today's episode, we delve into the European Central Bank's anticipated interest rate cut and its paradoxical effects on consumers. We also explore the temporary U.S.-China tariff agreement, its initial impacts, and the looming uncertainties. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pivotal economic developments and their global implications. Sources: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/05-28-2025-european-central-bank-expected-to-cut-interest-rates-amid-economic-trends-24856905319193 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250528~bd3c3b750a.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr250528~c61ec4f10a.en.html https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/ea376c40-7dad-4823-86c0-8fe3158fc621/ https://time.com/7290011/trump-says-china-violating-trade-agreement-tariffs-row/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-china-violating-trade-agreement-tariffs-truth-social/ https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/05/what-to-expect-from-us-china-trade-talks/ https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/05/29/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/ https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-may-29-2025 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-claims-china-totally-violated-trade-agreement-us/story?id=122342782 https://time.com/7290011/trump-says-china-violating-trade-agreement-tariffs-row/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-china-violating-trade-agreement-tariffs-truth-social/

In today's episode, we delve into the U.S. Court of International Trade's decision to block President Trump's import tariffs, sparking a rally in global financial markets. We also explore the U.S. economy's contraction in the first quarter of 2025 and the Federal Reserve's concerns over stagflation risks. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these developments and their implications for trade policy and economic growth. Sources: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-blocked-illegal-court-international-trade-ieepa-whats-next/ https://time.com/7289394/trump-tariffs-uscit-court-international-trade-ruling-appeal-reactions-explainer/ https://abcnews.go.com/Business/stocks-climb-after-court-blocks-trumps-tariffs/story?id=122304566

In today's episode, we delve into the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, revealing the central bank's struggle with economic uncertainties and policy trade-offs. We also explore the surprising rebound in U.S. consumer confidence, driven by improved economic outlooks and lower gas prices. Lastly, we examine the significant drop in crude oil prices, its causes, and the potential global economic impacts. Join us for these stories and more on Simply News Radio. Sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20250528a.htm https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-set-to-reveal-details-of-hawkish-stance-amid-trumps-tariffs-202505281315 https://www.investopedia.com/meeting-minutes-confirm-fed-really-is-stumped-about-the-economy-s-future-11743633 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-partially-rebounds-in-may-302465852.html https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-May-2025 https://www.conference-board.org/podcasts/c-suite-perspectives/The-State-of-the-Economy-for-May-2025 https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-consumer-confidence-rebounds-may-after-five-month-slide https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/05/27/Conference-Board-Consumer-Index-American/4321748363216/ https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/petrobras-reports-q1-2025-revenue-decline-amidst-lower-oil-prices https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/gas-prices-hit-4-year-low-ahead-memorial-day-weekend https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/oil-prices-fall-as-market-awaits-opec-meeting/49471 https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/energy/2025/Will-Summer-Drivers-See-Lower-Gas-Prices.html https://www.ainvest.com/news/rig-count-collapse-energy-investors-act-floor-drops-2505/ https://www.euromonitor.com/article/commodity-market-outlook-q2-2025-weaker-demand-outlook-amid-policy-uncertainty-to-cap-price-growth https://energynewsbeat.co/where-are-oil-prices-headed-in-2025-and-beyond-goldman-sachs-bearish-outlook-meets-rising-demand-well-economics-matters/ https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/oil-price-prediction-forecast/ https://energynews.pro/en/the-world-bank-anticipates-a-historic-drop-in-oil-prices-in-2025/ https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2025/is-crude-oil-at-a-major-inflection-point.html

In today's episode, we delve into Canada's anticipated Q1 2025 GDP data, highlighting a potential economic slowdown. We also explore the strategic interest rate cuts by central banks in New Zealand and South Korea amid global trade uncertainties. Join us as we analyze these developments and their implications for the global economic landscape. Sources: https://www.oecd.org/en/data/insights/statistical-releases/2025/05/gdp-growth-first-quarter-2025-oecd.html https://www.rbc.com/en/thought-leadership/economics/forward-guidance-our-weekly-preview/ https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-canada.html https://www.ainvest.com/news/canada-economic-outlook-persistent-negative-revisions-early-warning-signals-equity-debt-investors-2505/ https://economics.bmo.com/media/filer_public/05/15/0515ab98-be30-43f4-9e08-961912893ec5/outlookcanada.pdf https://www.rbc.com/en/thought-leadership/economics/forward-guidance-our-weekly-preview/ https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/week-ahead-economic-preview-week-of-26-may-2025.html https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/canada-economics-weekly/canada-weekly-markets-overreacting-rise-core-inflation-april https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/weekly-economic-watch.pdf https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/producer-prices-change https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/562314/rbnz-set-to-cut-official-cash-rate-by-25-basis-points-to-3-point-25-percent https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2025/05/27/rbnz-expected-to-cut-interest-rates/ https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/rbnz-set-to-cut-again-but-forecasts-hold-the-key-for-nzd-direction/ https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-expected-to-cut-its-cash-rate-by-25bp-this-week-preview-20250526/ https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ocr-preview-another-cut-due-as-rbnz-watches-and-waits/N64ICP742JHB5HUPAO7YZ7HQZQ/ https://english.news.cn/asiapacific/20250527/140d31986538449a804e8866129eb80c/c.html https://longportapp.com/en/news/241919670 https://www.mk.co.kr/en/economy/11327065 https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250525000651320 https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250525001200320

In today's episode, we delve into President Trump's announcement of significant tariffs on EU imports, escalating trade tensions. We explore the potential impact on the global economy, with a focus on the U.S. market's reaction and the European Union's possible countermeasures. Join us as we unpack the complexities of these proposed tariffs and their implications for international trade. Sources: https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/05/23/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgfAMKPfjbA

In today's episode, we delve into the recent U.S.-China agreement to reduce tariffs and its potential impact on the global economy. We also explore projections of a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy by 2025, with insights into factors such as trade tensions, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies. Additionally, we analyze the sharp declines in U.S. stock markets following President Trump's tariff threats against the European Union and Apple. Join us for a comprehensive overview of these pressing economic issues. Sources: https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/Economic-Outlook/economic-financial-risk-insights-may-2025.html https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/updated-scenario-forecasts-Economic-Research-19-2025-5/19/2025,51187 https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/spring-2025-economic-forecast-moderate-growth-amid-global-economic-uncertainty_en https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-united-states.html https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-may-2025 https://www.investopedia.com/dow-jones-today-05222025-11739858 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stock-market-lower-tariffs-threats-apple-us-may-23/

In today's episode, we explore the implications of Moody's downgrading the U.S. credit rating and Deutsche Bank's warning about fiscal deterioration. We also delve into the European Commission's Spring 2025 Economic Forecast, which predicts moderate growth amid global trade tensions. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pressing economic issues. Sources: https://economictimes.com/news/international/business/deutsche-bank-ceo-calls-2025-a-year-of-reckoning/articleshow/121336168.cms https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1342462-us-dollar-fiscal-frown-theory-has-deutsche-bank https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x9jwyu8 https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/54720/deutsche-bank-moodys-downgrade-of-us-credit-rating-raises-concerns https://longportapp.com/en/news/241371339 https://gmk.center/en/news/ec-downgraded-its-forecast-for-eu-gdp-growth-in-2025-to-1-1/ https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/spring-2025-economic-forecast-moderate-growth-amid-global-economic-uncertainty_en https://commission.europa.eu/news/eu-economy-projected-moderately-grow-amid-global-economic-uncertainty-2025-05-19_en https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/european-economic-forecast-spring-2025_en https://eaccny.com/news/chapternews/european-commission-spring-2025-economic-forecast-moderate-growth-amid-global-economic-uncertainty/

In today's episode, we delve into the temporary trade agreement between the US and China, marking a pause in their trade tensions with significant tariff reductions. We also explore the United Nations' grim update on the global economic outlook, highlighting a downturn in growth projections. Additionally, we examine the European Commission's Spring 2025 Economic Forecast, which suggests moderate growth for the EU amidst global uncertainties. Join us for these stories and more on Simply News Radio. Sources: https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/05/president-trump-announces-preliminary-trade-agreements-with-uk-china https://www.gibsondunn.com/stepping-away-from-the-brink-us-china-trade-deal-offers-90-day-tariff-reduction/ https://www.lathropgpm.com/insights/u-s-china-trade-update-trade-deal-brings-tariff-and-policy-changes/ https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/u.s.-china-trade-agreement-tariff-reductions-signal-new-phase-in-trade-relations https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/05/16/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/ https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2025/05/press-release-wesp2025-2/ https://media.un.org/unifeed/en/asset/d339/d3396571 https://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-mid-2025 https://desapublications.un.org/file/21163/download https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/Global-growth-slowing-UN-revises-2025-GDP-projection-down-to-2-4 https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/05/19/spring-2025-economic-forecast-how-much-will-trumps-tariffs-hinder-eu-growth https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/spring-2025-economic-forecast-moderate-growth-amid-global-economic-uncertainty_en https://commission.europa.eu/news/eu-economy-projected-moderately-grow-amid-global-economic-uncertainty-2025-05-19_en https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/european-economic-forecast-spring-2025_en https://eaccny.com/news/chapternews/european-commission-spring-2025-economic-forecast-moderate-growth-amid-global-economic-uncertainty/

In today's episode, we explore the landmark agreement between the United States and China to reduce tariffs, easing trade tensions temporarily. We also delve into the implications of Moody's downgrading the US credit rating due to rising debt concerns. Despite these challenges, US financial markets show remarkable resilience, with major indices closing higher. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these developments and their impact on global economic relations. Sources: https://www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/what-we-are-reading/two-deals-but-little-certainty/ https://www.gibsondunn.com/stepping-away-from-the-brink-us-china-trade-deal-offers-90-day-tariff-reduction/ https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-and-china-agree-partially-de-escalate-april-tariffs https://simplyethical.com/blog/us-china-tariffs-truce-90-days-pause/ https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/analysis-trumps-truce-with-china-on-tariffs-comes-at-a-cost-to-u-s-credibility https://www.dwassetmgmt.com/blog/the-pulse-global-economic-and-market-news-for-tuesday-may-20-2025

In today's episode, we delve into the temporary US-China tariff reduction agreement and its implications for global trade. We also explore the European Commission's downgraded economic forecast for the EU, highlighting the challenges and opportunities ahead. Join us as we discuss the fragile state of international trade and its impact on businesses and consumers worldwide. Sources: https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-temporary-de-escalation-us-china-trade-war https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-and-china-agree-partially-de-escalate-april-tariffs https://www.gibsondunn.com/stepping-away-from-the-brink-us-china-trade-deal-offers-90-day-tariff-reduction/ https://www.wcshipping.com/blog/us-china-trade-deal-2025-auto-tariffs-shipping https://www.internationaltradeinsights.com/2025/05/u-s-and-china-agree-to-reduce-tariffs-for-90-days/ https://www.eunews.it/en/2025/05/19/trumps-tariffs-hit-eurozone-growth-2025-forecasts-cut-by-0-4-percentage-points/ https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/spring-2025-economic-forecast-moderate-growth-amid-global-economic-uncertainty_en https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/european-economic-forecast-spring-2025_en https://eaccny.com/news/chapternews/european-commission-spring-2025-economic-forecast-moderate-growth-amid-global-economic-uncertainty/ https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/eu-cuts-economic-growth-forecasts-amid-tariff-uncertainty/3572910 https://businessday.ng/companies/article/global-business-optimism-falls-amid-trade-uncertainty-report/ https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/week-ahead-economic-preview-week-of-16-may-2025.html https://www.northerntrust.com/united-states/insights-research/2025/global-economic-outlook/a-new-dawn https://chiefexecutive.net/manufacturing-ceo-optimism-grows-again-in-may/ https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/05/step-back-from-brink-for-global-economy-and-other-key-economic-news/