Soldera Markets

As 2025 comes to a close, we analyze the critical factors shaping the European Guarantees of Origin (GO) market while reviewing our assessment from Q3. You can select your favourite podcast platform to watch or listen to this episode here.How to Access the OutlookAs always, this discussion is based on our comprehensive in-app quarterly report available to Soldera members via the sidebar.This quarter’s report includes all-new hydrology and reservoir predictive graphs for Norway, which will be a permanent fixture moving forward. 📊Looking Back at Q3 and Assessing Our Predictions → Market experienced unusually high volatility with 2025 vintage prices spiking in July before declining→ Production estimates adjusted as Italian data corrections showed slower underproduction than initially forecast→ Southern Norway reservoir levels critically low despite record-high northern reserves 💧→ Summer trading activity exceeded expectations with significant hedging pressureNorway Takes Center Stage 🇳🇴→ Norway’s parliament votes to transpose REDD II into national law → Southern reservoir zones (NO2) at historically low levels affecting 2026 outlook → Northern zones (NO4) overflowing but transmission-limited from reaching demand centers ⚡→ Market remains cautious on implementation timeline and actual demand impactCritical Supply Dynamics→ 2024 vintage oversupply continues pressuring 2025 spot prices below €0.50/MWh → End-of-year spot weakness follows typical seasonal pattern as traders rotate to 2026 vintage → Forecasted 4.8% reduction in 2025 GO issuance compared to 2024 → Dunkelflaute conditions expected in Central Europe impacting renewable production 🌫️→ First year since 2022 projected to reduce overall market surplus Demand Outlook and Policy Developments→ Germany’s 2024 cancellations up 2% year-over-year showing slower growth 🇩🇪→ Italian Energy Release Scheme replacing government auctions from 2026 onwards 🇮🇹→ Heavy industry receiving subsidized renewable energy in exchange for production commitments → Demand diversifying across Europe beyond traditional German dominance → CSRD guidance updates still pending clarity on corporate requirementsStrategic Market Considerations → 2026 forward prices commanding significant premiums reflecting improved market balance expectations → 2027 showing even stronger pricing as analysts anticipate continued oversupply reduction 🫗→ Conservative hydro production anticipated through winter and spring affecting supply → Renewable buildout slowing across Europe impacting long-term GO issuance → Market positioning for multi-year improvement despite near-term weaknessStay informed with our quarterly market updates to navigate the evolving GO landscape!🔗: www.soldera.org/podcasts/solderas-q4-go-outlook-state-of-the-goo-market-soldera-markets-12#GuaranteesOfOrigin #RenewableEnergy #EnergyMarkets #Sustainability This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podcast.soldera.org

🌍 Guarantees of Origin — Building a Market MakerIn this episode of Soldera Markets, Stenver, Al and Ollie from Soldera chat with Koen Andriessen and Chris Myers from Faraday Trading, about what it takes to build a Market Making (MM) operation in the current Guarantee of Origin (GO) market.This episode delves into:→ How Faraday transitioned from financial derivatives to GO market making 📊 → Their passive approach: waiting for counterparties rather than chasing trades→ Why they focus on AIB grid-connected certificates for sharper pricing→ How constant trading volume creates effective risk management→ How Faraday views the market: learn about the MM approach to risk and strategy.Faraday’s Origin Story:→ Three co-founders with extensive careers in financial market making → Started January 2024 as their first entrepreneurial venture together → Saw GO market as less developed compared to efficient financial markets → Drew parallels to financial products that became liquid over time → Brought MM expertise to a space dominated by back-to-back trading Soldera Auctions:→ Learn how Faraday and Soldera work well together → Explore how market makers access quality GO supply efficiently → Understand how streamlined sourcing strengthens MM liquidity provisionEnjoyed this episode? Sign up for more GO market expertise in your inbox ⬇️Renewable Producer in GO Markets? Try Soldera ⬇️ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podcast.soldera.org

As Q3 unfolds, we analyze the evolving dynamics shaping the European Guarantees of Origin (GO) market while reviewing our Q2 predictions.This episode is based on our full in-app quarterly report available to Soldera members. You can also listen to this episode your favourite podcast platform here.Looking Back at Q2 and Assessing Our Predictions→ Market experienced prolonged decline before dramatic recovery in final weeks 📉→ Prices bottomed at 40 cents before recovering to 80 cents, validating under-supply predictions→ German June disclosure deadline created delayed market activity separate from March patterns 🇩🇪We Need To Talk About Norway…→ Q2 Episode correction: Total Norwegian GO consumption actually decreased year-over-year despite record cancellations. → Problematic government behaviour impacting the GO market intensifies 🇳🇴Critical Supply Dynamics→ Europe producing 8-9% less renewable energy than last year, creating 50 TWh deficit → Nordic hydro reserves normalizing after record-high levels, hot summer predictions threatening further decline ☀️→ 2024 vintage GOs now in end-of-life phase as traders rotate inventory 🔄Demand Outlook and Regulatory Shifts→ CSRD scope reduction from 50,000 to 10,000 companies but targeting largest emitters 📋→ Hydrogen RFNBO requirement relaxation lobbying could unlock hundreds of TWh demand → Corporate sustainability commitments remaining strong despite regulatory changes → Forward curve premiums moderating as regulatory uncertainty impacts long-term pricing 📈Strategic Market Considerations→ Forward markets showing 50% premiums for 2026 vintage as utilities hedge exposure 📊→ Record-low oversupply reduction expected to significantly impact market dynamics→ New government auctions emerging while market fragmentation challenges persist 🆕→ Cross-border virtual GO accounts on the horizon at Soldera. Watch this space …As always, stay connected with our quarterly market outlooks to track the GO landscape. Catch our next outlook in Q4! #GuaranteesOfOrigin #RenewableEnergy #EnergyMarkets #Renewables This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podcast.soldera.org

As we enter Q2, we examine the key factors influencing the European Guarantees of Origin (GO) market while evaluating our Q1 predictions.Looking Back at Q1 and Assessing Our Predictions→ Most predictions materialized, especially regarding March 31st disclosure deadline activity→ Record Norwegian cancellations show market progress with 22 TWh more domestic consumption 🇳🇴→ Pricing remained sideways despite high volumes and record cancellations→ Geopolitical factors and defense priorities temporarily overshadowing sustainability initiativesCritical Supply Dynamics→ 47 TWh renewable underproduction silently reducing market oversupply 📉→ Nordic hydro reservoir levels have less market impact than commonly believed→ Rapid value decline of 2024 GOs problematic for remaining holders→ Germany's June deadline creates final window for 2024 GO consumption 🇩🇪Demand Outlook and Market Sentiment→ Forward prices historically low at €1+ despite continued interest→ CSRD scope reduction from 50,000 to 10,000 companies impacting price modeling 📋→ Potential hydrogen regulation relaxation could significantly boost GO demand→ Voluntary GO adoption in Iceland signals sustainable demand growthStrategic Considerations→ Why some people are considering leaning toward 30% forward volume hedging 📊→ Market's contango state reflects confidence in long-term improvement→ Country-specific vintage rules create arbitrage opportunities in Estonia and Italy→ Energy-intensive industry incentives creating new demand sources across Europe ⚙️Stay informed with our quarterly market updates to navigate the evolving GO market landscape!#GuaranteesOfOrigin #RenewableEnergy #EnergyMarkets #Sustainability This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podcast.soldera.org

In this episode, Fulbright Scholar Kevin Lu interviews Stenver Jerkku, founder and CEO of Soldera, as part of his research into Estonia's climate tech ecosystem. After working in content design and strategy for climatetech at Salesforce and exploring climate innovation across 21 countries, Kevin is now researching at Tallinn University of Technology where he's examining how founders build successful climate startups in Estonia.This interview explores:→ How Estonian entrepreneurs think globally from day one→ Soldera's founding journey and pivot from carbon credits to renewable energy→ Navigating fundraising as a climate tech company in Estonia→ When founders should (or shouldn't) pursue venture capital→ How Soldera leverages AI to automate compliance work→ How EU regulations create business opportunities→ Finding balance between supportive and restrictive policies→ What Estonia could improve to better support climate startupsKey insights include:→ Climate tech founders need laser focus rather than pursuing multiple opportunities→ Estonia's small market forces founders to think internationally from day one→ Taking VC means accepting responsibility to build a billion-dollar business→ Estonia's fast company formation and digital services are models for Europe→ Maintaining stable business policies helps Estonia attract international founders→ Community-building events could strengthen Estonia's climate tech ecosystem#ClimateTech #Estonia #VentureCapital This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podcast.soldera.org