Sound Investing

First, a big thank-you to everyone who joined me for the AAII presentation last Saturday. I appreciate your patience during my rocky Zoom start—and a special shout-out to Suzette Moskwa, who saved the day by running the slides!As promised, I’m following up on your chat comments and questions from the session. This week’s focus is on your insights; in the next couple of weeks, I’ll share a full Q&A edition covering listener questions on portfolio construction, diversification, and long-term investing strategy.Key Takeaways from This Week’s DiscussionETFs vs. Mutual Funds — Tax Efficiency MattersMutual funds often create higher annual taxes in taxable accounts. ETFs and index funds are more tax-efficient because of how they handle capital gains—saving investors up to 1% a year. Keep mutual funds inside IRAs to avoid unnecessary taxes.Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted PortfoliosThe Invesco Equal Weighted S&P 500 (RSP) holds the same 500 companies as the standard index but gives each stock equal weight. This creates different exposure and more turnover, yet the ETF version reduces the tax drag—a key advantage for long-term investors.Small-Cap Value Funds — Choosing the Right FitVBR (Vanguard) performs best when large-cap growth leads, while AVUV and DFSV outperform when smaller value companies rise. The lesson: size and style matter in long-term returns.The Power of Rebalancing & “Shannon’s Demon”Mentioned by Bill Yount from the Catching Up to FI podcast,  Shannon’s Demon illustrates how periodic rebalancing can turn volatility into profit. By selling high and buying low, you can enhance long-term performance while keeping risk in check.Morningstar Ratings — Don’t Chase the StarsStar ratings mostly reflect recent trends, not future potential. Focus instead on the underlying asset class and decades of evidence, not last year’s winners.Small-Cap Value Slump — Patience Pays OffSmall-cap value has struggled this year, but historically it offers one of the best long-term premiums. Remember: asset class selection drives up to 99% of overall portfolio performance.Risk Parity Portfolios — Balancing Risk the Smart WayPaul compared traditional diversification to risk parity, which balances exposure across stocks, bonds, and commodities. He prefers government bonds over commodities since bonds generate income and often rise when stocks fall.Diversifying Within an Asset ClassInstead of going “all or nothing,” you can hold multiple ETFs—like AVUV and DFSV—for extra balance within a category. Just keep the lineup manageable for your brokerage or platform.Factor Investing — What Really Drives ReturnsThe strongest long-term drivers are size and value. Momentum and quality can help, but smaller, cheaper companies historically deliver the best rewards.Growth Funds & Ten-Year PerformanceTen-year snapshots can mislead. From 2000 to 2025, small-cap value funds far outperformed growth and the S&P 500, showing the value premium remains powerful across full market cycles.S&P 500 vs. Total Market — Nearly Identical Over TimeSince 1928, returns differ by only 0.1%. The S&P’s recent edge comes mainly from a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, not fundamental differences in the indexes.Hiring an Advisor — When It’s Worth ItA skilled fiduciary advisor can help manage emotions, discipline, and rebalancing. If you struggle to stay consistent, professional guidance may be worth far more than the fee.The DIY Investor Myth — Overcoming Human Biases“No one cares more about your money than you” sounds good, but behavioral biases—recency, overconfidence, and loss aversion—can derail results. Automation or a trusted advisor can protect you. For more insight, see Paul Hayes’ free book Spending Your Way to Wealth, especially the appendix on 48 investor biases.Thank you again for your time, attention, and thoughtful participation. Despite the technical hiccups, your engagement made this an incredibly rewarding session!

In this episode, Paul dives into one of the most important themes in long-term investing: staying the course, even when individual asset classes deliver unexpected short-term results. Whether you’re a seasoned DIY investor or still building confidence, Paul shares timely lessons to help you make better decisions—and support others who rely on your guidance.Paul also previews his upcoming presentation for the AAII Puget Sound Chapter, where he’ll take one of the deepest dives yet into Daryl Balls’ latest quilt charts, the Sound Investing portfolios, and the vital differences between traditional and non-traditional index funds. You’ll hear Paul discuss insights from two of the industry’s leading “truth tellers”:• Jim Dahle (The White Coat Investor) and his Bogleheads presentation on reasonable vs. unreasonable portfolios• Dr. Bill Bernstein, and why staying disciplined may be investors’ greatest lifelong challengeAlong the way, Paul reviews 10-month, year-to-date performance for the Best-in-Class ETF portfolios—including the 10-fund, 4-fund, and 2-fund strategies—and explains why the surprising 2025 return patterns are completely normal.Key topics include:Why some equity asset classes “disappoint” this year—and why that’s expectedThe resurgence of international value, small international, and emerging marketsHow Chris Pedersen’s 4-Fund Worldwide strategy kept pace with the 10-FundThe powerful role of non-traditional index funds (DFA & Avantis)Why small-cap value’s recent struggles shouldn’t discourage long-term investorsHow to access DFA-style factor premiums through today’s ETFsThe importance of keeping an investing approach simple, reasonable, and durableWhy staying the course—not forecasting—is the true key to long-term successPaul also shares personal updates about moving back to Bainbridge Island and reflects on what it means to serve a community of dedicated DIY investors.If you know someone who would benefit from this work, please share this episode. And don’t miss the links in the show notes—including Jim Dahle’s video, portfolio references, quilt charts, and upcoming AAII registration details.Thank you for listening—and all the best to you and your family.

Paul Merriman welcomes back Chris Patterson, Director of Research, and Daryl Balls, Director of Analytics, for another thoughtful roundtable discussion. These three “underpaid volunteers” reflect on how far the Merriman Financial Education Foundation has come — and where it’s headed next. Together, they cover everything from new educational tools to a data-driven look at one of the most common investor questions: Has small-cap value lost its punch?The episode revisits this hot topic with evidence from decades of historical data, including several key Merriman Tables that illustrate why small-cap value (SCV) continues to deserve a place in long-term portfolios.📊 Quilt Chart: Year-by-Year Performance of the Major Asset Classes Created by Daryl Balls, this visual “quilt” shows how the four major U.S. equity asset classes — large-cap blend, large-cap value, small-cap blend, and small-cap value — have rotated in and out of favor since 1928. The randomness of short-term returns underscores the importance of diversification and patience. Despite long stretches of average performance, small-cap value’s cumulative results remain powerful. ➡️ View the Quilt Chart on PaulMerriman.com📈 Table G-1b: Fine-Tuning Table — S&P 500 vs U.S. SCV Equity Portfolio Outperformance Prepared by Daryl Balls, this 54-year comparison (1970–2024) demonstrates how small-cap value has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 over time. The two rightmost columns — highlighting rolling 15-year and 20-year outperformance — are especially compelling, showing that even after periods of apparent weakness, SCV regains its strength. ➡️ Explore Table G-1b: Fine-Tuning S&P vs SCV📉 Tables B1, H2, H2A, and D1.4: Core Bootcamp Comparisons From the Foundation’s Sound Investing Bootcamp series, these tables reveal how diversified equity portfolios have performed versus the S&P 500, both in accumulation and distribution phases. They help investors see that broad diversification — especially adding small-cap value — historically improves returns and risk-adjusted outcomes.Table B1: All-Equity Portfolio Returns by Asset Class (1928–2024)Table H2: 60/40 Portfolio Distribution Outcomes (1970–2024)Table H2A: All-Equity Portfolio Distribution Outcomes (1970–2024)Table D1.4: Historical Equity Premiums and Drawdowns➡️ See all Bootcamp TablesPaul, Chris, and Daryl explain that small-cap value premiums come in bursts — often following years of average performance. As Paul notes, SCV has had multiple 15- to 20-year stretches of breaking even with the S&P 500, followed by explosive 3- to 10-year “catch-up” periods that deliver outsized gains. The data in Table G-1b makes this clear: over 54 years, SCV continues to deliver a meaningful performance edge.As Daryl reminds listeners, “those two columns on the right are powerful.” They show that long-term investors who remain patient — and maintain a disciplined exposure to small-cap value — have been well rewarded.Patience is the premium. Factor returns are unpredictable year to year, but history rewards persistence.Diversification is defense. Combining S&P 500 with small-cap value reduces regret during both booms and busts.Data over drama. The Foundation’s free tools, calculators, and tables are designed to help you make rational, informed choices for the long term.🎧 Listen now on Spotify or YouTube to hear Paul, Chris, and Daryl discuss new tools like the Two Funds for Life Calculator, updates to the Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations, and their vision for the next generation of financial education.Featured Tables and ChartsWhy Small-Cap Value Still Packs a PunchEducational Takeaways

In this practical and inspiring ETFatlas podcast episode, host Jack Lempart welcomes Paul Merriman for a return conversation focused on the biggest mistakes beginner investors make—and how to avoid them.The discussion reveals why most investing errors are emotional, not technical. Paul emphasizes that successful investing is usually simple, though almost never easy.Paul Merriman draws on decades of experience as an educator, advisor, and founder of the Merriman Financial Education Foundation to spotlight key pitfalls:Trusting the wrong adviceStarting too late with investingLetting emotions drive decisionsChasing recent performancePaul’s conversation goes further, sharing actionable tips:How defensive investing and diversification protect you from major mistakesPractical ways to automate good habits and avoid behavioral biasesInsights from both US and European market examplesYou’ll also hear why academic research has shaped today’s best investment practices. Paul strongly advocates:Automating decisions wherever possibleBroad diversificationMaintaining discipline during market turbulenceListeners receive clear advice on keeping investing simple, avoiding high fees, and building portfolios designed to withstand uncertainty.The episode closes with tips for further reading—including free educational resources and helpful links—to support every investor’s learning journey.AgendaPaul Merriman’s journey from stockbroker to financial educator and foundation founder​Introduction to the most costly mistakes for beginners and how they can affect lifetime wealth​Why trusting the wrong advice is potentially the biggest error investors make​The importance of choosing academically sound, evidence-based sources over industry “experts” or neighbors​Analysis of how starting too late in investing can dramatically reduce future wealth​The emotional traps beginners face and the impact of behavioral biases on decision-making​The problem of performance chasing and recency bias in investment choices​Automating investments and the value of regular, disciplined contributions​Why diversification is considered “the only free lunch” in investing by experts​Advantages of keeping portfolios simple with solutions like target-date funds and low-cost ETFs​Examples illustrating the massive impact of investment fees over decades​The difference between defensive and offensive strategies in long-term market success​Real-world lessons from market history, including US, Europe, and Japan​How to avoid paralysis from choice overwhelm in a landscape of thousands of ETFs​

Watch YouTube video here.Paul Merriman and Chris Pedersen tackle your biggest questions—from simplifying portfolios and picking best-in-class ETFs to understanding equal-weighted funds, tax efficiency, and how much small-cap value to own. They dig into factor investing (size, value, quality, profitability, momentum), why reversion to the mean matters, and how to think like an owner—not a speculator. Plus: mentors, work-life balance, and the real risk investors face.Chapters00:00 – Intro & Mentors05:07 – Portfolio Simplification10:13 – Work-Life Balance11:39 – Which ETFs will outperform?20:15 – Importance of Quality22:45 – Equal-Weighted Funds26:14 – History: how long is enough?29:58 – Cost of public indexing33:30 – Equal-weight fund tax vs. ETF35:21 – How much small-cap value?39:47 – Why three EM ETFs?42:28 – “All Avantis” risk?49:45 – Technology sector history & mean reversion53:00 – Be an owner, not a speculator55:27 – OutroKey Takeaways“Best” ETF ≠ next year’s top performer—seek consistent factor exposure, low costs, broad holdings, and tax efficiency.Equal-weighting boosts small/value exposure but can increase turnover and tax drag; pairing large-cap blend with small-cap value can be more efficient.Decide small-cap value allocation by temperament (common range: 10–50% of equities when pairing with S&P 500/target date).Index approach vs. index label: DFA/Avantis are systematic and rules-based without telegraphing rebalances.Think like an owner: over decades, earnings—not sentiment—drive returns.Resources• Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations (2025): https://www.paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-etf-recommendations-2025#gsc.tab=0• Sound Investing Portfolios, Returns & Risks: https://www.paulmerriman.com/sound-investing-portfolios#gsc.tab=0• “Tune Out the Noise” (DFA Documentary): https://youtu.be/T98825bzcKw?si=kFMugnSSCn2E76sI

In this week’s episode, Paul Merriman shares lessons from a lifetime of investing—prompted by conversations with students, longtime collaborator Rich Buck, and questions from new investors about trust and risk.Paul dives deep into the data behind his favorite long-term strategies, including the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the classic Four-Fund Portfolio, comparing 25-year results across multiple time periods.He explains why no one can predict short-term returns, but how history can still guide your long-term strategy. Using decades of data, Paul shows how diversification across size and value has rewarded disciplined investors—even when recent performance has lagged.Referenced Tables & Data:40-Year Returns (1928–2024): S&P 500 best 12.5% / worst 8.9%25-Year Periods (1950–1974, 1975–1999, 2000–2025)Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (VADDX/RSP) vs. Cap-Weighted (VTSAX, S&P 500) DFA Small Cap Value (DFSVX and DFFVX)vs. Russell 2000 Small Cap Value (IWN)Four-Fund Portfolio (S&P 500, Large Cap Value, Small Cap Blend, Small Cap Value)Two-Fund Portfolio (S&P 500 + Small Cap Value)From 2000–2025, the S&P 500 compounded at 8.3%, while the equal-weighted version earned 9.9%, and small-cap value reached 11.1%. Paul explains why this premium persists and why patience—backed by data—is an investor’s greatest advantage.Full tables and charts available at PaulMerriman.com 

In this final episode of our four-part series, Paul Merriman compares three powerful approaches for a lifetime of investing:100% S&P 500: high-risk, high-reward growth.60/40 mix of S&P 500 and bonds: a defensive balance.100% U.S. Four-Fund strategy: large-cap blend, small-cap blend, large-cap value, small-cap value.Paul uses 55 years of data (1970–2024) to show how these portfolios performed during both accumulation and retirement distributions. Paul highlights the following critical tables from the Bootcamp series. Table B1 - Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 Equity Portfolio Table B4 - Fine Tuning Table: US 4-Fund Equity PortfolioTable C4 - Fixed Contributions ($1,000/yr): US 4-Fund Equity PortfolioTable D4.4 - Fixed Distributions (Conservative-$40,000/yr): US 4-Fund Equity Portfolio  Table H2 – Sound Investing Portfolios (100% Equity)Table H2A – Sound Investing Portfolios (60/40)Table D1.4 – Fixed Distributions ($40k + inflation)Did diversification deliver higher returns without extra risk? Or was the classic S&P 500 enough?Get the numbers, the tables, and the takeaways to help you decide.

Paul Merriman continues our series on radical lifetime investment strategies—comparing an all-equity S&P 500 portfolio to a balanced 60% equity/40% bonds portfolio.After two episodes focused on the accumulation phase, this third installment shifts to retirement distributions:How much income could each portfolio provide?How did they hold up during major market crashes?What role did bonds play in protecting withdrawals during tough years?Using 55 years of historical data (1970–2024) and key tables B1H2H2AD1.4 Paul shows the real-world impact of these strategies when you’re living off your investments.Listen now to see why adding bonds can be a lifesaver in retirement—even if you love the growth potential of stocks.

At FinCon, Chuck Gaffe- moneylifeshow.com sat down with Paul for a wide-ranging conversation about investing and financial independence.Paul shared insights on the rise of index funds, the FIRE movement’s “one-fund-for-life” approach, and how small portfolio adjustments can boost long-term returns. He also discussed timeless investing principles like staying the course, understanding risk, keeping costs low, and diversifying wisely.At FinCon, Paul reflected on everything from the rise of index funds to the FIRE movement’s “one-fund-for-life” strategy. His message was clear: while simple investing solutions can work, small, thoughtful adjustments—like adding different asset classes—can meaningfully improve long-term returns.Paul also emphasized timeless investing principles:Stay the course. Don’t bail when markets turn volatile.Understand your risk. Know how much you can afford to lose before the storm comes.Avoid unnecessary costs. A fraction of a percent in fees can add up to millions over a lifetime.Diversify wisely. A broad mix of assets offers protection and opportunity across market cycles.Whether discussing crypto, ETFs vs. mutual funds, or portfolio allocation strategies, Paul’s advice always comes back to one goal: helping investors achieve financial independence with confidence and peace of mind.You can explore his free resources, podcasts, and articles at paulmerriman.com

In Part 2 of this 4-part series, Paul Merriman compares the accumulation results of the U.S. 4-Fund Portfolio against the S&P 500, using both all-equity and 60/40 strategies.Paul analyzes five decades of data, showing how diversification affects returns, volatility, and long-term wealth creation. Paul also highlights the tables you’ll want to download and follow along with as he explains the numbers:Table B1: Fine-Tuning Table – S&P 500Table B4: Fine-Tuning Table – U.S. 4-Fund PortfolioTable H2a: Sound Investing Portfolios – 100% EquitiesTable H2: Sound Investing Portfolios – 60/40 PortfoliosTable C1 & C4: Fixed Contributions for Accumulation AnalysisNext week: We'll look at the distributions in retirement using the S&P 500 in both the 100% equity and 60% equities/ 40% bonds.

This is the first of a series of 4 podcasts focused on the decision to have all of your investments be all equities vs. a balanced portfolio of equities and fixed income.  In this presentation Paul uses the S&P 500 in  both the all equity and the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio.  He uses the following tables during his presentation.Table B1 Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 Equity PortfolioTable H2a Sound Investing Portfolios (these portfolios are all 100% equities)Table H2 Sound Investing Portfolios (these portfolios are all 60% equities/40% fixed income) (NEW)Table C1 Fixed Contributions ($1,000/yr: S&P 500 Equity PortfolioIn the next presentation he does the same analysis using the U.S. 4 Fund and Worldwide 4 Fund Portfolios for the equity portion of the portfolio.

Paul starts this letter beginning with a letter from a listener. The letter ends with the reason why our work has had more impact than John Bogle and Benjamin Felix (Both Truth Tellers).  The rest of the podcast is focused on a recent article- ⁠The Evolution of Financial Advice, by Ben Carlson.  The focus is on the math, history and psychology of investing.Paul concludes that most steps to successful investoring are well documented.  But two areas are still open for fine tuning:  Portfolio construction and fund selection. To help in that Paul recommends three Boot Camp Presentations:  Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation, Fixed Contributions and Fixed Distributions.

On this podcast, Paul Merriman dives into three big investor questions: Why would anyone add bonds to their portfolio—even in retirement? How has the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio performed in 2025? And how much Small Cap Value should an investor add to VTSAX? Along the way, Paul explains why diversification and balance matter just as much as chasing higher returns.During the podcast Paul references ⁠Table G-1b, Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 vs. US SCV Equity Porfolio - Out-Performance⁠ and ⁠Table H2a - Sound Investing Portfolios: Comparison Data ⁠, Quilt Chart K1a. He also points to Chris Pedersen’s Best In Class ETF Recommendations and his 2 Funds for Life returns table. These resources provide valuable context for comparing U.S. vs. international returns, equity vs. bond allocations, and how small-cap value can enhance a long-term strategy.

Paul Merriman is looking ahead to the 2025 Bogleheads Conference (October 17–19), one of the premier gatherings for long-term investors. The lineup includes Vanguard CEO Salim Ramji, Christine Benz, Bill Bernstein, Rick Ferri, Alan Roth, Jim Dahle, and more. Paul will be there for all three days to connect with listeners, share new projects, and learn from some of the best minds in the field. Even if you can’t make it, all sessions will be available later on the Bogleheads YouTube channel.In this episode of Sound Investing, Paul also revisits key lessons on building lasting portfolios. He explains why small-cap value has historically outperformed the S&P 500, how the Four-Fund Strategy makes diversification simple and effective, and why tax-efficient investing matters for 401(k)s, IRAs, Roths, and taxable accounts. He also highlights the importance of financial education for young people, pointing to NGPF.org’s Question of the Day as a powerful way to spark conversations about money. And, of course, Paul shares a reminder about the risks of hype-driven assets through the story of Bitcoin Pizza Day.To close, Paul adds a lighter touch by reading a poem about cryptocurrency—written in the playful rhythm of The Music Man.

I had never heard of Erin Moriarity before she contacted me about having a conversation with her on “Erin Talks Money.” When I visited her Youtube channel I immediately realized what a powerhouse she is. She has over 200,000 subscribers to her Youtube channel and her videos are terrific. She has over 800 videos on topics most young investors or beginners at any age need to see. 36 videos on budgeting, 133 on retirement, and much more. Recently she started interviewing old experienced “experts." Her first two guest interviews were Ed Scott and Bill Bengen. I felt honored to be a part of a team who want to help teach her followers. Plus, if you read the comments on the YouTube video it’s obvious she has a large group of loyal followers. By the way, her followers made me feel very welcome."Erin, that was an absolute Masterclass in investing! Thanks for bring Paul to your channel. I enjoyed seeing how comfortable you and the guest were and how the conversation naturally flowed between topics. I’m going to make sure my kids view this. Advice and insights for LIFE!""Excellent video, Erin! How do we know Erin is a force in investing advice? Look at the people she's had on her channel! I'm thankful to Erin not only for the great advice, but she is someone I can show my daughters, ages 21 and 25, and go "Look at Erin. If she can invest and make good choices w her money, so can you!". This means the world to me for them to see someone they can relate to, who disseminates complicated ideas and concepts in an understandable way. And BTW, I confirmed I'm subscribed to her channel “0:00 Introduction & Meet Paul Merriman 2:14 The Power of Starting Early (For You & Your Kids) 7:14 100% Equities for Young Investors & Avoiding Overexposure to the S&P 500 14:02 Predicting Future Returns, Compounding & Patience 22:27 Market Cycles, Psychology & Preparing for Bad Times 25:12 Choosing the Right Portfolio Complexity (Levels 1–3) 34:08 Traditional vs. Non-Traditional Index Funds & Vanguard Loyalty 41:34 Why We Own the Whole Market & The Case for 60/40 46:19 Staying the Course, Chasing Returns & Capturing Extra Gains 57:00 How Investing Has Changed & Automatic Enrollment Benefits 1:01:45 Knowing When You Have Enough & The Rise of Hourly Advisors 1:08:44 The 3 Things Every DIY Investor Should Do & Closing ThoughtsWatch the video here

What’s holding investors back from building real wealth? Talking Real Money, hosts Don McDonald and Tom Cock take aim at the 10 most damaging myths, lies, and mistakes that cost investors big—often millions.You’ll learn:Why "having a guy" isn’t a strategy—it's a setupWhy predicting the market is like calling a psychicHow starting too late can cost you over half a millionThe hard truth about individual stocks, expensive advisors, and false promises of risk-free wealthWhy diversification, low costs, and understanding your real risk profile actually workDon McDonald, a 34-year financial talk radio veteran, and Tom Cock, the former host of Serious Money on PBS, join forces to cut through financial jargon and expose what really works. In every episode, they solve real money problems, share smart long-term strategies, and bring clarity to the complex financial issues that affect all of us.Talking Real Money is designed to give you the real help you need for a really great financial future—and yes, it’s actually fun to listen to.Bonus shoutout: Don McDonald also generously donated his time to narrate the audiobook version of Paul Merriman’s bestselling book, “We’re Talking Millions!” His voice brings the content to life with clarity, energy, and heart. He’s not only a brilliant communicator—he’s also a phenomenal reader. Listen to the audiobook here.

On this special Q&A episode—recorded July 29 2025—Paul Merriman gears up for his August 2 keynote at the Garrett Planning Network Retreat, where he will address more than 100 hourly financial advisors about the future of financial literacy. He invites listeners to email questions for the panel (paul@paulmerriman.com) and then dives into ten wide‑ranging listener questions that benefit investors of every age and stage.What you’ll learnAdding QQQ to the 10‑Fund “Ultimate Buy‑and‑Hold” portfolio: upside vs. hidden downside.Toughest markets Paul has faced—from the 1966–1981 whipsaw to the 1987 crash—and the timeless lessons they teach.Global diversification in 2025: 50/50 vs. 70/30 U.S./international and why volatility, not return, drives the decision. Table B4, Table B3a and Table B3bSmall‑Cap Value vs. S&P 500 performance: 1975‑1999’s 5 % premium, 2000‑2025’s 2.6 % edge, and what it means going forward.Avantis + DFA split for deeper diversification (cost, holdings, tracking error).Risks of an all‑Small‑Cap‑Value portfolio and when a worldwide all‑value approach makes more sense.Using DFA International Small‑Cap Value (DFISX) inside a 403(b) for a Two‑Fund strategy.Vanguard STAR vs. Vanguard Wellington: balanced‑fund showdown and why Wellington’s 60/40 mix wins in the long run.Rebalancing at age 62: tax‑smart moves, asset‑location tactics, and simplifying with target‑date or balanced funds.Anatomy of the Ultimate Buy‑and‑Hold strategy: 10 equity asset classes, why it started in 1994‑95, and how four‑ and two‑fund variations stack up. Sound Investing Portfolio Returns (1970-2024) 50/50  and  Sound Investing Portfolio Returns (1970-2024) 70/30Paul backs every takeaway with real‑world data—from DFA, Avantis, Vanguard, and Russell indexes—illustrating how disciplined asset allocation can tame the brutal drawdowns that crush performance when investors chase recent winners. You’ll hear why trend‑following protected clients in 1987, how dividends rescued returns in the 1966–1981 “go‑nowhere” market, and why low‑cost indexing plus global value exposure remain his bedrock recommendations.Got a question for Paul’s hourly‑advisor panel? Email it before July 31 and help shape the conversation on transparent, client‑first advice.Listen now to sharpen your strategy—whether you’re building wealth, 20 years from retirement, or fine‑tuning a 50/50 portfolio in your 60s.

In this episode, Paul Merriman shares insights into upcoming events, including his presentation at the Garrett Planning Network Retreat, as well as his reflections on asset allocation, government bond strategies, and the benefits of various portfolios for different life stages. Tune in for a deep dive into how different funds and asset classes perform over the long term, and how to optimize your investment strategy, regardless of age or risk tolerance.Key Topics Covered:1. Long-Term Returns ComparisonPaul compares two small-cap value funds: the Vanguard Small Cap Value Fund (VSIAX) and the DFA Small Cap Value Fund (DFFVX). To find long-term returns for these funds, Paul uses Morningstar’s chart function, which allows users to view the maximum (MAX) historical data for any given fund, helping to compare the performance of these funds since their inception 2. Best Asset Allocation for RetireesThe best asset allocation for retirees typically depends on individual factors, such as risk tolerance and life expectancy. Generally, Paul suggests a moderate equity allocation of 40-60% in stocks, with the rest in fixed income, for retirees who have enough saved up to comfortably fund their retirement .3. Asset Allocation for an 83-Year-Old RetireeFor an 83-year-old retiree, Paul discusses a more conservative portfolio with two-thirds in bonds and one-third in equities. This conservative approach, which mirrors the allocation in Vanguard’s target-date funds, aligns well with retirees who are less reliant on aggressive growth but still need some equity exposure to combat inflation .4. Why Use Three Government Bond Funds?Paul advocates for a diversified bond strategy that includes TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), short-term government bonds, and intermediate-term government bonds. This combination offers a balance of safety, growth potential, and reduced volatility compared to using just one bond fund, and provides a more stable return over time.5. How the Worldwide 4 Fund Portfolio WorksThe Worldwide 4 Fund Portfolio is structured with 25% in large-cap blend (U.S), 25% in large-cap value (INTL), 25% in small-cap blend (INTL), and 25% in small-cap value (U.S.), giving you a diversified mix of U.S. and international equities. This approach optimizes for both size and value, ensuring a balanced exposure to market growth, volatility, and global investment opportunities.6. Should a 26-Year-Old Use the 2 Funds for Life Portfolio Yes, a 26-year-old could benefit from the 2 Funds for Life Portfolio, which typically includes the A TARGET DATE FUND and a small-cap value fund. This strategy allows young investors to focus on equity growth, benefiting from the long-term appreciation potential of small-cap value stocks while minimizing risks associated with bonds at an early stage7. Managing the 2 Funds for Life Portfolio with S&P 500 & Small-Cap Value For someone using only the S&P 500 and small-cap value fund, Paul suggests a flexible allocation approach. You might start with a 50/50 split, or adjust according to your risk tolerance. The small-cap value fund tends to be more volatile but offers higher returns over time, while the S&P 500 provides more stability with lower volatility .8. Can There Be a 3 Funds for Life Portfolio?Yes, a 3 Funds for Life portfolio could include the S&P 500, large-cap value, and small-cap value. Paul suggests mixing these three equity asset classes to achieve a balanced portfolio that offers growth potential without overexposing yourself to risk.⁠Resources:1928-2024 Quilt Chart (K1a)⁠⁠Sound Investing Table (H2a)⁠Chris Pedersen’s 2 Funds for Life Table: For more detailed insights, visit ⁠Chris Pedersen’s 2 Funds for Life table⁠.

In November 2020 The Merriman Financial Education Foundation released “We’re Talking Millions!  12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement.”  The purpose of the book was to focus on a series of very simple steps any investor might take to improve their financial future.  "Understanding how to invest wisely for your future can be daunting. Many people never get started for fear of making mistakes. Others make choices based on hearsay and hope, sold on hype or risk aversion. In "We're Talking Millions!" you will learn why and how to make a handful of smart choices that can turn modest regular savings into a secure future. You'll discover "12 Small Steps with Big Payoffs," each of which can add $1 million or more to your retirement nest egg if you start in your 20s or 30s. These steps are well known.”The book has had a huge impact on an untold number of readers.  The numbers are unknown because the Foundation offer the book free as a pdf, as well as a free link to the audio version  (LINK) that was read by Truth Teller Don McDonald.While the book has had almost 400 online Amazon reviews (averaging 4 1/2 stars), the approximately 100 written reviews have over 95% 5 star ratings.  Here is one from a young student (age 19 at the time) who is now in medical school!  5.0 out of 5 stars Life-changing book for young people interested in investingReviewed in the United States on December 17, 2020Format: Paperback Verified Purchase"We're Talking Millions" was a life-changing book. I am a 19 year-old college student who was directed toward Mr. Merriman's book as a great resource for first time investors. His book was the perfect resource for someone with little to no prior knowledge about investing.It starts by outlining the twelve steps to boost a retirement fund, listing tips and tricks along the way. One of the most helpful parts for me was that all of the investment lingo was clearly defined and explained, and I could get a very clear sense as to how each of these small steps fits into the overall puzzle. The book then outlines how to get started: explaining the "Two Funds for Life" investment plan, what investment companies are best to use, and suggesting specific investment funds.I cannot recommend this book enough!! I feel confident about my investment plan after reading this book, and I plan to share it with as many of my peers as possible. I have already given it to my sister and best friend. If you are looking for information about investing and don't have the energy to read a long, dense investing book, then "We're Talking Millions" is the book for you! It is interesting, short, and extremely informative, and I hope that it helps you as much as it helped me.Now Paul has recorded this podcast and video to discuss the 12 steps.  The video was produced as part of a special offering to introduce Western Washington University alumni to The Merriman Financial Literacy Program that is working to educate all WWU students on the personal finance topics that will be an important part of their future.Our hope is you will pass along these links to others in your life who might benefit from this free educational information.Is there someone in your life you think could benefit from the discussion of these 12 huge decisions? Here are several ways to access this information:  The following link is to a free pdf of our book, "We’re Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement.”   A second and third link takes you  to a 2 hour video  and podcast on the 12 million dollar decisions.  And finally a very short (12 minute) podcast or video review of the 12 decisions.  

Many of you have been submitting thoughtful questions through our AI chat, particularly on fund selection, asset allocation, and broader investment strategy. It’s encouraging to see this level of engagement with the core principles that shape long-term financial success.While the AI generally provides sound and efficient guidance, there are times when its responses lack the nuance or clarity that experience can bring. To provide deeper context and help you make more informed decisions, I’ve selected several recent questions to address—drawing from the AI’s suggestions where appropriate and adding insights based on decades of research and practice.One brief correction from a recent update: I previously mentioned a resource for ETF investors in Canada, Europe, and the U.S., but misspoke on the name. The correct website is ETFAtlas.com. Jack, the developer behind it, is creating a valuable tool for globally minded investors. Your candid feedback—what’s working well and what could be improved—will be essential as he continues building out the platform. Look for additional features to roll out in the months ahead.What Sound Investing Portfolio does Paul use and why? 3:02What funds should I use to set up a Roth IRA account for a 21-year-old? 13:06Do you think Vanguard funds will get lower returns than Avantis and DFA ETFs?  21:46Is there a table that represents using the S&P 500 and Aggregate U.S. Bond Index rather than your 3-fund bond portfolio?  26:51I am 45, hoping to retire by 55-60. Is 25% in bonds too little? 31:04Does it make sense to have non-taxable bonds in an IRA? 34:34Your quilt chart (1928-2024) shows a 2-fund portfolio with 50% each small cap value and large cap value. Isn’t that too much in small cap value? 35:39How often should I rebalance?  38:09In your podcasts you talk a lot more about the 4-fund portfolios (WW and U.S.) than you do the all-value portfolios. The all-values have higher returns but you recommend them less often. Why? 40:19Are there conditions where the all-value portfolios will underperform the more balanced portfolios?  40:19. (Answer is integrated with previous question)I’m 57. How much should I have in bonds?  49:30