Stephan Livera Podcast

In this conversation, Giovanni Santostasi shares his insight about the power law and its application to Bitcoin. Giovanni starts with his journey of discovering Bitcoin, his background in data analysis, and how he applies scientific methods to understand Bitcoin's behavior. The discussion delves into the concept of power laws, their prevalence in nature, and how they can be used to model various phenomena, including economic systems.  Giovanni critiques traditional economic models and emphasizes the importance of data-driven analysis in understanding complex systems like Bitcoin. He explores the nature of Bitcoin as a network, the patterns of adoption, and the implications of power laws in understanding market behavior. Giovanni argues against the existence of bubbles in a power law framework and emphasizes the importance of recognizing the diminishing returns in Bitcoin's growth.  The conversation concludes with reflections on the future of Bitcoin and its potential trajectory in the coming years. Takeaways 🔸The power law is a significant concept in understanding Bitcoin's price behavior. 🔸Giovanni's early interest in Bitcoin was sparked by its potential to enable futuristic projects. 🔸Power laws are prevalent in various natural and human systems, including cities and economies. 🔸The S-curve model of adoption is often misapplied in discussions about Bitcoin. 🔸Giovanni discovered that 94% of Bitcoin's behavior can be modeled using a power law. 🔸Understanding power laws can provide insights into complex systems like Bitcoin. 🔸Data analysis is crucial for making sense of economic phenomena. 🔸Giovanni emphasizes the importance of rigorous scientific methods in economics. 🔸The relationship between price and time in Bitcoin follows a power law. 🔸Giovanni aims to bridge the gap between physics and economics through data-driven analysis. Modeling human behavior is complex and often unpredictable. 🔸Market corrections can be anticipated through patterns similar to physical phenomena. 🔸Historical events can exhibit power law characteristics. 🔸Bitcoin's adoption does not follow a traditional S-curve but rather a power law. 🔸Bubbles in Bitcoin are seen as outliers rather than a fundamental aspect of its behavior. 🔸The growth of Bitcoin is expected to slow down over time due to diminishing returns. 🔸Understanding Bitcoin requires a framework that incorporates scaling variant phenomena. 🔸The interactions within the Bitcoin network create a self-regulating system. 🔸Future predictions for Bitcoin should consider its historical behavior and power law dynamics. 🔸The conversation highlights the need for a deeper understanding of economic theories in relation to Bitcoin. The behavior of wallets significantly influences Bitcoin's price dynamics. 🔸Whales have a disproportionate impact on Bitcoin pricing. 🔸Diminishing returns are expected as Bitcoin matures. 🔸Time preference is a crucial concept for Bitcoin investors. 🔸Cities exhibit power law growth, unlike corporations. 🔸Future projections suggest Bitcoin could reach $10 million in 20 years. 🔸Market cycles are likely to continue, with predictable peaks and troughs. 🔸Liquidity is becoming a critical factor in Bitcoin's price movements. 🔸Diminishing volatility may lead to smaller market corrections. 🔸Emotional discipline is essential for successful trading strategies. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:06) - Giovanni’s journey with Bitcoin (06:37) - Finding Power Law in nature & in Bitcoin (11:32) - What is Giovanni’s view on so-called S-Curve adoption? (15:48) - What is a Power Law?; Mathematical relationship with Bitcoin (20:14) - Power Law in living organisms, planets, languages & cities (31:05) - Contrasting views on economic methodology (33:30) - Sponsors (39:35) - Modeling human behavior & Market dynamics (44:47) - Understanding adoption patterns in Bitcoin (49:05) - Comparing the growth of Bitcoin to that of a virus & internet (56:48) - Debunking price hopium with Power Law (1:03:13) - The future of Bitcoin with diminishing returns  (1:09:59) - Scale invariance (Impact of ETFs & Corporations on Bitcoin) (1:13:52) - Understanding Wallet behavior and Price dynamics (1:20:46) - The impact of Time Preference in Bitcoin (1:23:54) - Bitcoin's price trajectory through Power Law (1:24:36) - Sponsors (1:30:57) - Global liquidity & its impact on Bitcoin’s price (1:38:50) - Should you trade Bitcoin?; Managing emotional discipline  Links:  https://x.com/Giovann35084111  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

In this conversation, Miljan from Primal discusses the significant updates in the Nostr protocol and the launch of Primal 2.0. The discussion covers the evolution of Nostr, the introduction of a feed marketplace that empowers users, and the diverse communities forming around the platform. Miljan highlights the new features of Primal 2.0, including long-form content capabilities, advanced search functionalities, and the ethical monetization model of Primal Premium. The conversation emphasizes the importance of user agency, authenticity, and the potential of open networks in the social media landscape. Takeaways 🔸Nostr has evolved significantly in usability and user agency. 🔸The feed marketplace allows users to curate their own content experience. 🔸Primal 2.0 introduces major features enhancing user interaction. 🔸Long-form content on Nostr competes with established platforms like Substack. 🔸Nostr's open network fosters authenticity and user sovereignty. 🔸Primal Premium offers ethical monetization focused on user value. 🔸The community dynamics on Nostr are diverse and evolving. 🔸Advanced search capabilities set Nostr apart from other social media. 🔸The future of social media is leaning towards open and decentralized models. 🔸Nostr is at the early stages of a promising development trajectory. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro(03:02) - The Evolution of Nostr: Major thematic changes so far (05:31) - How is the Feed Marketplace with Primal 2.0 empowering users? (12:48) - How does Nostr foster diverse user groups & emerging communities? (17:14) - What’s new with Primal 2.0? (21:41) - Sponsors (24:05) - Primal 2.0 ‘Reads’ parallels with Substack and Medium (31:16) - The Open Network advantage of Nostr (34:53) - Sponsors (39:24) - Is Nostr a censorship resistant network? (43:57) - How many people are actively using Nostr?  (50:06) - What is Primal Premium? Links:  https://x.com/mbraticevic  https://primal.net/miljan  https://x.com/primal_app  Bitcoiners, Don’t Sleep on Nostr!: https://youtu.be/7LsIb6D7FtU Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Nomadcapitalist.com/apply Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Bumi & Stephan explore the evolution of Alby from a browser extension to a self-custodial Lightning wallet, Alby Hub. The conversation delves into the integration of Nostr for self-sovereign digital identity, security considerations for browser extensions, and the role of LSPs in channel management.  Bumi explains the architecture of Alby Hub, its user experience, and pricing models, emphasizing the importance of integrating Bitcoin into various applications. They also discuss the cost structures associated with Bitcoin services, the optimization of Lightning channels, and the challenges of on-chain payments.  The conversation highlights the importance of merchant adoption and the innovative Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) protocol, which decouples wallets from applications, making it easier for developers. They introduce Alby Go, a mobile application designed for seamless payments, and explore the future of self-custodial solutions in the cryptocurrency space. Takeaways 🔸Alby aims to use Bitcoin as open-source money for digital economies. 🔸The Alby browser extension allows seamless Lightning payments on the web. 🔸Nostr integration enhances self-sovereignty in digital identity management. 🔸Security of browser extensions relies on the underlying browser's security model. 🔸Alby Hub is a self-custodial Lightning wallet designed for programmability. 🔸Users can run Alby Hub on various platforms, including cloud and home servers. 🔸LSPs provide liquidity and channel management for Alby Hub users. 🔸Alby Hub aims to simplify user experience with default channel setups. 🔸Pricing for Alby Hub includes hosting fees and LSP charges for channels. 🔸The goal is to make Bitcoin integration easy for developers and users alike. Users need to understand the cost structure of Bitcoin services. 🔸The Lightning Network requires a one-time setup fee for cheaper transactions. 🔸Optimizing channel sizes is crucial for effective use of the Lightning Network. 🔸On-chain payments from Lightning balances are still a challenge. 🔸Merchant adoption is essential for the growth of Lightning payments. 🔸NWC allows applications to communicate with wallets easily. 🔸Alby Go simplifies mobile payments for users. 🔸Self-custodial solutions are becoming easier to use. 🔸Education is key to increasing self-custodial adoption. 🔸The future of Bitcoin services will involve both custodial and self-custodial options. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:10) - What is Alby? (03:30) - What is the Alby Extension? (06:08) - Integrating Alby with Nostr, Zapping & Value-for-value economy (11:13) - Security for Alby as a browser extension (14:33) - What is Alby Hub? (18:52) - Sponsors (21:22) - Alby Cloud, LSPs & Channel management in Alby Hub (27:03) - Pricing and User Experience of Alby Hub (33:44) - Breaking down the cost structure, Optimising lightning channels (36:57) - Sponsors (37:59) - Switching from/to On-chain payments & Lightning (41:51) - Enhancing merchant adoption with Nostr Wallet Connect (44:32) - What is Nostr Wallet Connect? (51:12) - What is Alby Go? (54:54) - Who are the main users of Alby?  (57:09) - The future of self-custodial solutions Links:  https://x.com/Bumi  https://kosmos.social/@bumi  https://x.com/getAlby  https://x.com/nwc_dev  https://getalby.com/  SLP412 Moritz of Alby - Making Lightning On the Web Easy https://youtu.be/nYqYHgAtUho  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

PlanC and Sminston to discuss the power law as it applies to Bitcoin. They explore the implications of power law on Bitcoin's price, volatility, and market dynamics, emphasizing its predictive capabilities and the diminishing returns over time. The conversation focuses on the technical aspects of power law, its historical accuracy, and potential factors that could disrupt its validity. The hosts also touch on the S-curve phenomenon in Bitcoin adoption and the overall health of the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin's price projections, the concept of extended cycles, and the implications of the power law on Bitcoin's future are a few things which are talked about too, along with stability of Bitcoin's price model, potential market fluctuations, and the impact of adoption and liquidity on Bitcoin's growth. Lastly, PlanC and Sminston emphasize the importance of understanding market dynamics and the historical patterns that Bitcoin has followed, providing insights for investors and enthusiasts alike. Takeaways 🔸Power law indicates diminishing returns for Bitcoin over time. 🔸Bitcoin's volatility has been decreasing systematically. 🔸The power law model has shown a 4.5% accuracy in price predictions. 🔸A significant event would be needed to disrupt Bitcoin's power law. 🔸The power law provides a more stable growth model compared to exponential growth. 🔸Bitcoin's adoption is a gradual process, not an overnight phenomenon. 🔸The R squared value of the power law is increasing, indicating better fit. 🔸Power law explains Bitcoin's price history with high accuracy. 🔸Market dynamics can fluctuate, but the power law remains intact. 🔸Understanding power law helps in making informed investment decisions. Bitcoin's price can fluctuate significantly, with projections ranging from 35k to 400k. 🔸The stability of Bitcoin's price model is largely established, with 95% confidence in projections. 🔸Adoption and liquidity cycles are crucial in determining Bitcoin's market behavior. 🔸The concept of extended cycles suggests that Bitcoin's growth may not follow traditional four-year patterns. 🔸Historical data shows that Bitcoin has followed a power law growth pattern, indicating long-term stability. 🔸Market dynamics are influenced by institutional adoption and liquidity conditions. 🔸The potential for a muted bear market exists, with less drastic price drops anticipated. 🔸Understanding the power law can provide insights into Bitcoin's future price movements. 🔸The conversation highlights the importance of data analysis in predicting market trends. 🔸Investors should remain aware of the evolving landscape of Bitcoin and its implications for the future. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:29) - How does Power Law apply to Bitcoin?; Comparing it to Saylor’s Bitcoin24 model projections (04:54) - The math behind Power Law (08:23) - Is Bitcoin on a path of diminishing returns? (13:09) - How accurate is the Power Law model?; Power Law Vs S2F comparison (18:58) - What differentiates Power Law from other models? (22:36) - What could ‘break’ the Power Law? (25:09) - Sponsors (28:17) - The S-curve phenomenon in Bitcoin adoption (34:19) - Bitcoin price projections and Market analysis (39:11) - Sponsors (49:35) - What can be considered an ‘extended cycle’? (55:24) - Sminston With‘s ‘Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator’ (1:02:55) - Power Law and its implications for Bitcoin's Future Links:  https://x.com/TheRealPlanC https://x.com/sminston_with  Best Bitcoin Data Family - https://x.com/i/communities/1856486530056929427  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Matthew Zipkin and Stacie Waleyko discuss the current state of Bitcoin open source development, the various layers of Bitcoin development, and the need for more contributors in the ecosystem. They emphasize the importance of education and innovative approaches to learning Bitcoin development, sharing success stories from their programs aimed at increasing participation in the Bitcoin community. In this conversation, Matthew and Stacie also share their insights on the various ways individuals can contribute to the Bitcoin ecosystem through the Bitcoin Developer Project (BDP). They explore the importance of personal passion in contributing to Bitcoin, the innovative educational tools and programs available for developers, and the diverse pathways for involvement in Bitcoin development. They also highlight key contributors in the community and the significance of collaboration and open-source contributions in advancing Bitcoin technology. Takeaways 🔸Bitcoin open source development is good but needs improvement. 🔸There are different layers of Bitcoin development: protocol, application, and layer two. 🔸The Bitcoin community is welcoming and encourages contributions from all backgrounds. 🔸Education is key to increasing the number of Bitcoin developers. 🔸Innovative learning tools can help demystify Bitcoin development. 🔸Success stories from programs show diverse backgrounds of contributors. 🔸The need for more funding and support for open source developers is critical. 🔸Understanding Bitcoin's technical side enhances belief in its value. 🔸The Bitcoin ecosystem is vast, yet the number of active developers is small. 🔸Creating engaging educational content is essential for attracting new contributors. 🔸Contributing to Bitcoin can be personalized based on individual passions. 🔸The Bitcoin Developer Project offers a welcoming environment for learners. 🔸Educational tools like BOSS and BTC Demi help ease the learning process. 🔸Active participation as a user can lead to contributions in open source. 🔸Diverse skills are needed in Bitcoin development, from coding to design. 🔸Innovative projects like Warnet simulate Bitcoin networks for research and education. 🔸Community contributions can lead to significant advancements in Bitcoin technology. 🔸The Bitcoin ecosystem thrives on collaboration and meritocracy. 🔸Starting with small contributions can lead to larger opportunities in Bitcoin. 🔸The importance of recognizing and supporting key contributors in the Bitcoin community. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:45) - Who are Matthew & Satsie?  (01:48) - What is the current state of Bitcoin Open Source? (04:11) - What are the different types of Bitcoin Development?  (09:18) - The need for more Bitcoin Developers (13:21) - How does BDP lower the barrier to entry in Bitcoin development? (16:48) - Success stories in Bitcoin Development (21:05) - The future of Bitcoin Open Source contributions (22:19) - Sponsors (24:43) - What is the Bitcoin Developer Project (BDP)?; Learning tools and Programs(31:03) - Sponsors(33:07) - Career pathways to contribute to Bitcoin (37:57) - What are the areas of involvement in Bitcoin Development? (44:41) - Shoutouts to key contributors Links:  https://learning.chaincode.com/  https://bitcoindevs.xyz/  https://x.com/MatthewZipkin  https://x.com/satsie  https://savingsatoshi.com/ Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Nomadcapitalist.com/apply Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Sina, COO and co-founder of 21st Capital, discusses the application of power law in understanding Bitcoin's growth. He explains how his empirical research led to the development of a power law model that accurately describes Bitcoin's historical price behavior. The discussion delves into the mechanisms behind this model, the reliability of its predictions, and the impact of market maturity on Bitcoin's growth trajectory.  Sina also introduces quantile models to provide a probabilistic view of future price predictions, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and investor behavior. They also discuss the evolving dynamics of Bitcoin mining, the impact of fiat inflation on Bitcoin valuation, and the significance of the power law in Bitcoin's growth. They deep dive into MicroStrategy's unique position in the Bitcoin market, analyzing its premium and market dynamics, and explore the future interplay between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin. Takeaways 🔸Power law models Bitcoin's growth behavior effectively. 🔸Adoption is a key driver of Bitcoin's value. 🔸Reliability of models can be assessed through R-squared values. 🔸Market maturity leads to reduced volatility in Bitcoin. 🔸Quantile models provide a probabilistic view of price predictions. 🔸Historical patterns can inform future expectations. 🔸Latecomers to the market have less impact on price. 🔸Bitcoin's growth is constrained by physical and psychological limits. 🔸ETF purchases are becoming more influential than mining. 🔸Understanding probabilities is crucial for realistic expectations. People are overemphasizing the mining factor in Bitcoin's price. 🔸Long-term holders play a significant role in Bitcoin's market dynamics. 🔸Fiat inflation can impact Bitcoin's nominal price but not its fundamental value. 🔸The power law provides a framework for understanding Bitcoin's growth. 🔸MicroStrategy's premium reflects its unique position in the market. 🔸Investors see MicroStrategy as a way to gain exposure to Bitcoin indirectly. 🔸MicroStrategy's financial engineering allows it to accumulate more Bitcoin over time. 🔸The premium on MicroStrategy shares may fluctuate with market conditions. 🔸Increased institutional interest in Bitcoin could benefit MicroStrategy. 🔸Self-custody remains a critical aspect of Bitcoin investment. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:54) - What is the Power Law? How does it apply to Bitcoin? (06:44) - Will Power Law patterns hold into the future? (10:09) - Evaluating the reliability of Power Law (15:40) - Does Power Law imply a diminishing return for Bitcoin?  (21:08) - Sponsors (23:40) - Quantile models and Future price predictions (31:38) - The evolving dynamics of Bitcoin mining and sell-offs (34:24) - How does fiat inflation influence the Power Law model? (40:59) -Sponsors (43:01) - What’s driving $MSTR to trade at a premium? (48:32) - The future of MicroStrategy and Bitcoin's interplay (56:48) - Impact of corporations adopting the Bitcoin Strategy Links:  https://21stcapital.com/  https://x.com/Sina_21st  https://www.youtube.com/@21stCapital  https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1858706684904104149  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Tom Nelson discusses the misconceptions surrounding climate change, particularly the belief that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary driver of climate change. He argues that this notion is a significant part of a larger narrative that has been perpetuated for decades, leading to alarmism and extreme policies.  The discussion also touches on the evolution of climate catastrophism, the implications of the net zero agenda, and the role of media and funding in shaping public perception. Nelson emphasizes the need for a more nuanced understanding of climate science and the importance of questioning prevailing narratives.  Tom & Stephan also discuss the evolution of climate skepticism, the impact of urban heat islands on temperature records, and the misconceptions surrounding extreme weather events and climate change. Emphasis is also laid on the importance of debates in shaping public perception and critiques government subsidies for renewable energy sources. The discussion touches on the potential of Bitcoin as a means of financial freedom in the context of climate change narratives. Takeaways 🔸Carbon dioxide is just one of many factors affecting climate. 🔸Groupthink and power control drive climate alarmism. 🔸The narrative around climate change has evolved over decades. 🔸Net zero policies often lead to absurd consequences. 🔸Many climate policies are based on flawed assumptions. 🔸Public perception is influenced by media narratives. 🔸Funding for climate research often favors alarmist views. 🔸The complexity of climate science is often oversimplified. 🔸Bitcoin mining is unfairly criticized in climate discussions. 🔸There is potential for changing minds within the climate debate. Many well-known climate skeptics once believed in climate change. 🔸Starting with one lie can open up discussions about climate change. 🔸Legacy media's influence is diminishing as alternative media rises. 🔸The urban heat island effect significantly skews temperature records. 🔸Extreme weather events have always existed and are not solely due to climate change. 🔸Debates on climate change are often avoided by alarmists. 🔸Government subsidies for renewable energy are often misallocated. 🔸Fossil fuels are underfunded compared to renewable energy sources. 🔸Public perception of climate change is shifting towards skepticism. 🔸Bitcoin represents a potential shift in financial autonomy against climate narratives. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:12) - What drives Climate Catastrophism? (07:54) - What are the implications of the ‘Net Zero’ agenda? (12:16) - The role & consequences of media reporting on Climate Crisis (17:35) - Sponsors (23:24) - The Science Funding Dilemma  (26:41) - Does Bitcoin mining cause bad weather conditions?  (30:51) - The shift in climate skepticism (33:35) - Temperate Records (35:32) - Sponsors (40:40) - How serious are the extreme weather events? (44:15) - Ongoing debates and public perception of climate change narratives  (50:02) - Government subsidies for different forms of energy sources (55:33) - Tom’s perspective on Bitcoin Links:  https://climatethemovie.net/  https://x.com/TomANelson  https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Joe Quirk, president of the Seasteading Institute, discusses the innovative concept of seasteading, which proposes creating floating societies on the ocean as a solution to the limitations of land-based governance. Quirk shares his personal journey into the world of seasteading, drawing parallels between cruise ships, Burning Man, and the potential for self-governing communities at sea. He explores the practicalities of building seasteads, the challenges faced, and the legal frameworks necessary for their success. The conversation also touches on sustainability, food production, and the economic viability of living on the ocean. He emphasizes the ecological benefits of building structures at sea, the innovative business models that can emerge, and the need for political autonomy. He also highlights the importance of material science and competition in developing sustainable structures that can withstand ocean conditions. Takeaways Seasteading offers a solution to the governance monopoly problem. Cruise ships exemplify successful self-governing societies. Variation and selection in governance can lead to progress. Experiences at Burning Man illustrate innovative social structures. Seasteads can be built using various materials and technologies. Legal frameworks are essential for the establishment of seasteads. Safety and sustainability are key considerations for ocean living. Food production on seasteads can include seaweed and seafood farming. Economic viability is crucial for the future of seasteading. Seasteading represents a new frontier for human innovation and governance. The ocean can support diverse life when solid structures are introduced. Seasteads require political autonomy to be truly effective. The future may see a proliferation of small, innovative nations at sea. Cruise ships serve as a model for future floating cities. Innovative business models can thrive in marine environments. Sustainable farming and biotech research can be more effective at sea. Material science is crucial for building durable seasteads.  The ocean's diversity offers opportunities for new governance models. Seasteading can provide alternatives to traditional land governance. Support for seasteading initiatives is essential for their success. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:04) - What is Seasteading? (04:08) - How did Joe's experience at Burning Man inspire him to pursue Seasteading? (09:36) - The evolution of Governance and Social structures (14:53) - Challenges & innovations in Seasteading (18:16) - What are the legal & regulatory aspects of Seasteading? (22:46) - How safe is it to live on the ocean?  (25:05) - Sponsors (27:22) - How does one produce or source food on Seasteads? (31:22) - How much does a Seastead cost? (34:00) - Aquatic life and its role in Seasteads  (35:35) - Future of Seasteading (40:57) - Innovative business models viable at Sea (45:41) - Sponsors(51:08) - Building sustainable structures at Sea (57:28) - What’s next for Seasteading? Links:  https://x.com/joequirkexults  https://x.com/seasteading  https://www.seasteading.org/  https://oceanbuilders.com/ Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Nomadcapitalist.com/apply Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Steve and Lyn delve into the complexities of Bitcoin consensus, discussing the motivations behind their project analyzing consensus risks in protocol upgrades. They explore the technical and economic aspects of Bitcoin, the evolution of its consensus mechanisms, and the various stakeholder groups involved in decision-making processes.  The discussion also highlights the importance of awareness among Bitcoin users regarding potential changes and the historical context of contentious changes in Bitcoin's past. They explore the challenges of gaining adoption for alternative clients, the implications of activation methods for protocol changes, and the overall robustness of the Bitcoin network. The discussion also emphasizes the need for awareness and understanding of these dynamics to foster better decision-making within the Bitcoin community. Takeaways Understanding Bitcoin consensus is crucial for all stakeholders. Bitcoin's growth changes the dynamics of consensus. Different philosophies exist regarding Bitcoin's evolution. Investors need to be aware of consensus changes. Knowledge empowers Bitcoin users to make informed decisions. Stakeholder groups have varying powers and incentives. The Bitcoin community is evolving and requires ongoing education. Historical changes in Bitcoin provide lessons for the future. Soft forks present different challenges compared to hard forks. The project aims to be a living document for ongoing contributions. The Bitcoin network must have the option for alternative clients to ensure a healthy ecosystem. Gaining adoption for alternative clients is challenging and can lead to a fragile network. Investors hold significant power in determining the future of Bitcoin, especially during contentious changes. Self-custody investors have a unique advantage in navigating potential forks in the network. The method of activation for protocol changes is a contentious topic with no clear best practice. Bitcoin's governance is complex, and no single group has unilateral power over decisions. Awareness of governance dynamics can lead to better collective decision-making in the Bitcoin community. The separation of the consensus engine from the Bitcoin Core could facilitate alternative clients. The future of Bitcoin's consensus mechanism is uncertain and requires careful monitoring of stakeholder dynamics. The project discussed is an open-source initiative, inviting community engagement and improvements. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:40) - What is the objective of Bitcoin Consensus Analysis (BCAP)?  (06:55) - What are the technical aspects of the Bitcoin Consensus? (11:29) - Examples of consensus changes (16:15) - What are the stakeholder groups in Bitcoin? (22:57) - Sponsors (25:34) - What are the various ‘States of Mind’ regarding changes in the Bitcoin Consensus? (31:00) - Historical context of changes in Bitcoin (38:56) - The importance of alternative clients in Bitcoin (47:06) - What power do bitcoin investors have? (49:31) - Sponsors (54:33) - Implications of various Activation methods (1:00:02) - Why is Bitcoin not a democracy of miners? (1:06:01) - The future of Bitcoin's consensus changes (1:14:16) - Closing thoughts  Links:  https://github.com/bitcoin-cap/bcap   https://x.com/LynAldenContact  https://x.com/moneyball  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Roman Martinez, Lexi & Stephan discuss the evolving real estate landscape in El Salvador, particularly in the context of Bitcoin adoption. They explore the motivations of various buyers, the impact of recent changes in infrastructure and regulations, and the unique challenges and opportunities present in the market. The conversation also touches on the importance of trust in real estate transactions and the varying expectations of foreign buyers regarding property quality and development. Lexi and Roman also discuss the experience of moving to El Salvador, highlighting cultural adjustments, healthcare quality, language integration, and the real estate market. They emphasize the importance of understanding local customs, the benefits of private healthcare, and the growing expat community.  The podcast also covers the real estate landscape, including prices, investment opportunities, and the significance of discovery trips for potential expats. They conclude by addressing the risks associated with real estate investments and the importance of due diligence. Takeaways El Salvador's real estate market is evolving rapidly. Many buyers are looking for a 'plan B' due to safety concerns. Bitcoin adoption is influencing real estate investments. There are no property taxes in El Salvador, attracting investors. Bitcoin Beach is a key area for Bitcoin enthusiasts. Real estate transactions require trust and local knowledge. Expectations of property quality vary among foreign buyers. Pre-construction projects are gaining popularity. Education on Bitcoin is crucial for local adoption. Location is a critical factor in real estate investment decisions. Cultural understanding is crucial for expats in El Salvador. Healthcare in El Salvador can be better than in the US. Learning Spanish enhances the experience of living in El Salvador. Real estate prices have increased significantly in recent years. El Salvador offers a unique lifestyle that differs from Western norms. Discovery trips provide valuable insights for potential expats. The private healthcare system in El Salvador is highly accessible. Real estate investment requires careful consideration and due diligence. The expat community in El Salvador is growing and vibrant. El Salvador is seen as a country with potential for growth and opportunity. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:54) - What is Goodlife El Salvador?; El Salvador’s Real Estate landscape (04:05) - What is the Real Estate buyer persona in El Salvador? (05:52) - What motivates people to move to El Salvador? (10:35) - Bitcoin education, adoption and spending in El Salvador (15:30) - Living in Bitcoin Hubs & adjacent localities  (20:18) - What are the Real Estate investment trends?  (22:11) - Common pitfalls for new buyers (27:41) - Sponsors (29:55) - Quality of development & matching the expectations of expats  (31:49) - Cultural norms & Healthcare in El Salvador (38:32) - Overcoming language barriers  (41:17) - Real Estate prices & trends in El Salvador (43:33) - Sponsors (50:47) - What to expect in El Salvador?; Discovery trips for expats (57:42) - Navigating Real Estate risks Links:  https://x.com/goodlife_sv  https://x.com/romanmartinezc  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

In this conversation, Freddie New, general counsel at The Little Car and Head of Policy at Bitcoin Policy UK, discusses the evolution of Bitcoin regulation in the UK. He highlights the historical context of regulatory attitudes, the role of the Law Commission in recognizing Bitcoin as property, and the challenges posed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).  The conversation also touches on banking access issues, the impact of fraud concerns, and the future of Bitcoin custodianship. They also discuss the strategic reserve held by the UK government, regulatory challenges faced by Bitcoin exchanges, and the broader policy goals for Bitcoin advocacy. Freddie sheds light on the political landscape and the need for engagement with politicians to promote Bitcoin-friendly policies. Additionally, they address the ECB's recent criticisms of Bitcoin and contrast the regulatory approaches of the UK and EU. Takeaways Freddie New advocates for Bitcoin policy in the UK. The UK has a history of misunderstanding Bitcoin. The Law Commission has recognized Bitcoin as property. The FCA has restricted access to Bitcoin products. Fraud concerns impact banking access for Bitcoin users. Bitcoin is seen as a unique form of money. The government is becoming more positive about Bitcoin. Banks are primarily concerned with self-preservation. The FCA's stance is a significant barrier to adoption. Bitcoin is for both individuals and institutions. The UK holds 61,000 Bitcoin, making it the third largest holder. There is a need for the UK to capitalize on its Bitcoin holdings. Self-custody of Bitcoin must remain legal in the UK. Access to exchanges and banking services is crucial for Bitcoin adoption. The UK should explore the potential of Bitcoin mining using renewable energy. Political engagement is essential for Bitcoin advocacy in the UK. The ECB's criticisms of Bitcoin are fundamentally flawed. The UK and EU have different regulatory approaches to Bitcoin. Pension funds are beginning to allocate assets to Bitcoin. Support for Bitcoin Policy UK can help influence positive change. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Who is Freddie New? (03:26) - An overview of Bitcoin regulatory scenario in the UK (08:00) - The shift in perception: From criminality to legitimacy (17:23) - Are banking onramps/offramps to Bitcoin a hurdle in the UK? (21:13) - AML regulations & their Implications for Bitcoin (26:21) - Sponsors (32:08) - The FCA's resistance to Bitcoin adoption in the UK; Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (40:43) - Sponsors (44:02) - Answering a questionnaire to buy Bitcoin in the UK? (47:51) - What are the Policy Goals for Bitcoin in the UK?; Bitcoin Developer community  (53:06) - Politicians & their stance on Bitcoin advocacy (1:06:27) - Contrasting UK & EU Regulatory approaches (1:12:00) - How to support Bitcoin Policy UK? Links:  https://x.com/freddienew  Bill on digital property that's currently going through Parliament: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3766  Exchange walkthroughs:  https://x.com/freddienew/status/1743644557441470496 https://uk.bitcoinpolicy.net/  http://www.bitcoinpolicy.uk/ Steve Baker speaking on Bitcoin in Parliament in 2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXQpXYvUB98  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Nomadcapitalist.com/apply Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Eric Yakes & Tyler Stevens join me to discuss their efforts to build a Bitcoin-focused community in Denver through various events, educational initiatives, and sustainable financial practices.  Summary In this episode, Stephan Livera hosts Eric Yakes and Tyler Stevens to discuss the burgeoning Bitcoin community in Denver and their initiative to establish a dedicated Bitcoin space. They explore the dynamics of the local Bitcoin scene, the vision behind creating a community-driven hub, and the importance of governance and member engagement. The conversation also touches on the philosophy of creating a 'third place' for Bitcoin enthusiasts, comparing their efforts to similar initiatives like Bitcoin Park in Nashville, and outlining plans for coworking and events in their new space. In this conversation, Tyler and Eric emphasize the importance of documentation for leadership transitions, the need for financial sustainability, and the engagement of the developer community. They also share insights on creating educational opportunities and offer advice for others looking to establish similar community spaces. Takeaways The Bitcoin community in Denver is rapidly growing. Creating a Bitcoin space aims to bridge social and technical meetups. Community-driven governance fosters member engagement and influence. The 'third place' philosophy emphasizes a balanced community environment. The Denver Bitcoin space seeks to attract talent from the broader crypto community. The governance structure allows for member representation and influence. The space is designed to be a hub for education and events. The initiative aims to positively influence the local culture and economy.  You need to motivate your local community. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro  (01:21) - The vibrant Bitcoin community in Denver; BitDevs (04:48) - What is Bitcoin Space?  (09:21) - ‘The Third Place’ Philosophy in Bitcoin (14:45) - Similarities & differences between Bitcoin Space, Denver & Bitcoin Park, Nashville (15:54) - Community growth & member engagement in Bitcoin Space (18:57) - Sponsors (21:39) - Building community through Coworking & Events at Bitcoin Space (27:00) - Self-sustaining nature of leadership & importance of documentation (29:32) - Financial sustainability and Treasury management (32:36) - FOSS Developer community in Denver; Creating Educational initiatives  (33:44) - Sponsors (42:15) - Advice for aspiring Community Builders (45:28) - Outro Includes Paid Partnerships Links:  Eric Yakes: https://x.com/ericyakes  Tyler Stevens: https://x.com/tylerkstevens  The Space: https://x.com/SpaceDenver  https://denver.space/  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Here are some short interviews I did while at Lugano Plan B on a range of topics, from bitcoin ossification to block size, government regulation, the latest state of wallets, and mining decentralization with: Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro  (01:01) - Jimmy Song, Bitcoin Expert (07:30) - John Carvalho, CEO at Synonym (12:51) - Sponsors (15:05) - Dennis Porter, CEO & Co-Founder Satoshi Action Fund (24:58) - Ben, Host of BTCsessions (31:54) - Sponsor (32:50) - Luke Dashjr, CTO OCEAN Mining (37:53) - Jameson Lopp, Co-founder & Chief Security Officer Cas (47:22) - Outro Links:  https://x.com/LuganoPlanB  https://x.com/jimmysong  https://x.com/BitcoinErrorLog  https://x.com/Dennis_Porter_  https://x.com/BTCsessions  https://x.com/LukeDashjr  https://x.com/lopp  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Fabian Jahr and Gloria Zhao rejoin me to discuss whether big projects can be done inside Bitcoin core. We delve into AssumeUTXO, ASMap, developer funding, and meritocracy in the developer community. Summary In this episode, Stephan discusses the upcoming Bitcoin Core version 28, its new features, and the ongoing development efforts with Fabian and Gloria. They delve into the pace of change within Bitcoin Core, the importance of communication and collaboration in software development, and the challenges faced by developers in getting projects approved. The conversation also covers the AssumeUTXO project, its implications for node operation, and the significance of funding and competing implementations in the Bitcoin ecosystem. The episode concludes with insights into future projects and the collaborative nature of Bitcoin development. Takeaways Bitcoin Core version 28 introduces exciting new features. The development process involves both small bug fixes and significant changes. Communication and collaboration are essential for project success. AssumeUTXO allows for quicker node synchronization. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin development presents unique challenges. Funding can influence project focus but should not dictate it. Competing implementations can complicate backward compatibility. Iterative development is crucial for large projects. Engaging the community early can lead to better outcomes. Future projects like ASMap and Cluster Mempool are on the horizon. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:32) - What to expect from Bitcoin Core V28.0? (05:10) - What should be the pace of change for Bitcoin Core? (11:15) - How does one decide which is a worthwhile project to work on? (14:15) - Why did it take so long for AssumeUTXO to go live? (20:38) - AssumeUTXO explained (22:04) - Sponsors (25:40) - BtcpayServer ‘s Fast Sync  (27:36) - Developer funding landscape in Bitcoin; Working on FOSS  (31:27) - What are the effects of having various implementations of Bitcoin Core? (35:05) - What does it take to successfully merge a PR? (37:31) - What is the ASMap project? (48:34) - Sponsor (49:58) - Importance of soft skills & meritocracy in Bitcoin’s developer community (1:00:13) - Upcoming projects; Closing thoughts  Previous Episodes:  ` SLP214 Pierre Rochard & Fabian Jahr – Where Are All The Bitcoins?:  https://youtu.be/PQWy_UR9PzY  SLP216 Gloria Zhao Learning Bitcoin Core Contribution & Hosting PR Review Club: https://youtu.be/O-Q-SmuXjS4  SLP404 Gloria Zhao - What Do Bitcoin Core Maintainers Do?: https://youtu.be/a61lUwlOF80  v3 Transactions and Package Relay with Glozow (SLP511): https://youtu.be/H1o7TgTCMjk  Links:  Bitcoin Core v28.0: https://bitcoincore.org/en/download/ ASMap: https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/asmap-creation-process/548 AssumeUTXO tracking: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issues/29616 https://bitcoinops.org/en/topics/assumeutxo/  TRUC / v3 topic: https://bitcoinops.org/en/topics/version-3-transaction-relay/ Package relay topic: https://bitcoinops.org/en/topics/package-relay/ Package relay tracking: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issues/27463 https://brink.dev Testnet 4 PR: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/29775 BIP94: https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1601 CISA website: https://cisaresearch.org CISA fellowship: https://x.com/ck_SNARKs/status/1817928417184203162  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Summary In this conversation, Keith Gardner from Branta, discusses the importance of security in Bitcoin transactions. Keith shares his background in engineering and how he became involved in Bitcoin after recognizing the complexities and risks associated with traditional finance.  The discussion covers common phishing and address replacement attacks, the innovative solutions offered by Branta to enhance transaction security, and the future of Bitcoin in relation to mobile integration and privacy concerns. Keith emphasizes the need for user-friendly tools that can help prevent scams and ensure safe transactions in the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency.  The discussion also covers long-term strategies for Bitcoin custody, innovations in software security, and key takeaways for individuals to safeguard their investments. Takeaways Keith Gardner transitioned from engineering to Bitcoin due to complexities in traditional finance. Branta was created to address the fear of losing Bitcoin through phishing attacks. Phishing and man-in-the-middle attacks are significant threats in Bitcoin transactions. Branta aims to provide a solution that verifies Bitcoin addresses before transactions. Mobile integration is a future goal for Branta, focusing on QR code technology. Branta operates as an invisible layer alongside existing wallets to enhance security. Privacy is a critical concern, and Branta ensures user data is protected. The software does not handle private keys or expose user Xpubs. Branta's future developments will include support for the Lightning Network. The goal is to make Bitcoin transactions safer and more user-friendly. Ensure secure transactions by verifying addresses before sending funds. Phishing attacks are prevalent; always guard your inbox. Education on security practices is crucial for crypto users. Creating friction in transactions can prevent impulsive decisions. Long-term strategies for Bitcoin custody are essential for security. Utilize multi-sig and cold storage for larger amounts of Bitcoin. Be cautious of urgency in requests for sensitive information. Nostra's web of trust can enhance security in transactions. Regularly check the authenticity of software before downloading. Treat your Bitcoin as if it were worth significantly more. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:36) - Keith’s background; What is Branta? (03:10) - Recent attack vectors on Bitcoin (Phishing and Address Replacement) (08:13) - Is Branta mobile friendly?  (12:12) - Is Branta for personal use or businesses? (17:09) - Integrating Lightning & other Layer 2 solutions  (18:24) - Sponsors (26:01) - Privacy concerns and User Data Protection (31:36) - Guarding against Phishing & Spoofing attacks (34:37) - Why is friction important in financial transactions? (38:50) - Bitcoin custody is a long-term responsibility  (39:15) - Sponsors (44:45) - What are the possible risks with Branta? (53:14) - Key takeaways for protecting your Bitcoin Links:  https://x.com/unfakekeith  https://x.com/BrantaOps  https://www.branta.pro/  https://github.com/BrantaOps  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Nomadcapitalist.com/apply Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Harris Irfan, CEO Cordoba Capital Markets & Advisor at @OnrampMENA joins me to discuss challenges and opportunities within Islamic finance, ethics of finance in business and the intersection of Islamic finance and Bitcoin. Harris highlights building a financial system focused on real economy transactions, sharing insights on finance, custody, and Bitcoin investment.  Summary In this conversation, Harris Irfan discusses his journey from conventional finance to Islamic finance and Bitcoin. He explores the challenges and opportunities within Islamic finance, particularly in relation to ethical finance and risk-sharing principles. The discussion delves into the intersection of Islamic finance and Bitcoin, highlighting the potential for Bitcoin to serve as a sound monetary system that aligns with Islamic principles. Harris emphasizes the importance of creating a financial system that prioritizes real economy transactions over speculative practices, and he shares insights on the future of finance, custody, and investment decisions in a Bitcoin standard. Takeaways Harris Irfan transitioned from conventional finance to Islamic finance and Bitcoin. Islamic finance emphasizes ethical finance and risk-sharing principles. Bitcoin is viewed as a modern form of sound money, potentially more Islamic than gold. The challenges of Islamic finance are exacerbated by the fiat banking system. Custody solutions for Bitcoin are evolving, with a focus on self-custody. Cultural perspectives on money influence the adoption of Bitcoin in Muslim communities. Trade finance can be structured to align incentives between investors and businesses. The VC industry may need to adapt to a sound money standard. Hurdle rates for investments will change in a Bitcoin economy. Optimism about the future of Bitcoin is essential for its growth. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro  (01:04) - Harris’s background with finance & Islamic banking (07:44) - Comparing Fiat banking with Islamic finance  (12:06) - The intersection of Islamic finance and Bitcoin (18:21) - Custodying Bitcoin - Individuals vs. Trusted custodians (25:51) - What are misconceptions about Bitcoin among muslims? (30:20) - What are the cultural differences when operating on a Fiat Standard vs Sound Money Standard? (33:27) - What does it mean to share risk in finance? (39:12) - The viability of different financial models (45:35) - What would finance look like in a Full Reserve Bitcoin banking world? (54:17) - How does one navigate with morality & ethics in the current Fiat world? (59:00) - Bitcoin compared to hurdle rates in investment decisions (1:02:11) - Outro Includes Paid Partnerships (16:04) - Sponsors (38:11) - Sponsor Links:  https://x.com/harris_irfan  https://www.ccmkts.com/ Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Summary In this episode, Kenji Tateiwa, CEO of Agile Energy X, discusses his extensive background in nuclear engineering and the impact of the Fukushima disaster on public perception of nuclear energy. He explains the innovative concept behind Agile Energy X, which leverages wasted renewable energy through Bitcoin mining to address curtailment and grid congestion issues in Japan. Kenji elaborates on the unique flexibility of Bitcoin mining as an energy buyer and its potential role in the future energy landscape, including the integration of circular economy principles. The conversation also touches on the challenges and opportunities in Japan's energy production, particularly regarding nuclear energy and the need for a diverse energy portfolio. Takeaways Kenji Tateiwa has a strong background in nuclear engineering. The Fukushima disaster significantly impacted public perception of nuclear energy. Agile Energy X aims to utilize wasted renewable energy through Bitcoin mining. Bitcoin mining can help solve curtailment and grid congestion issues. The concept of 'Megawatt to MegaHash' connects energy production to Bitcoin mining. Bitcoin mining is flexible and can be turned on and off as needed. AI data centers are less flexible compared to Bitcoin mining. Agile Energy X has a two-pronged strategy to hedge against market fluctuations. The circular economy can be integrated into energy solutions. Japan's energy future requires a diverse mix of energy sources. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:50) - Who is Kenji Tateiwa and what is TEPCO? (05:34) - What are the various components of energy markets? (06:30) - Fukushima and the perception of nuclear energy  (09:42) - What is Agile Energy X & why was it created? (14:15) - Convincing TEPCO to mine Bitcoin; Solving the energy issue (16:14) - Understanding Curtailment and Grid Congestion (20:06) - Sponsors (23:10) - Megawatt to MegaHash: Bridging Energy and Bitcoin (25:42) - Bitcoin Mining vs. AI Data Centers (29:02) - The competitive landscape of Bitcoin mining (33:26) - Sponsors  (37:58) - Challenges and opportunities in Nuclear Energy (42:12) - Curtailment of renewable energy could reach 42% in Japan by 2050? (45:41) - Scaling Bitcoin mining in Japan (47:02) - What is “The Ultimate Circular Economy”? (51:28) - The future of Japanese energy production (53:44) - The future of Agile Energy X Links:  https://agileenergyx.co.jp/en/   Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Lawrence Lepard, Managing Partner, Equity Management Associates, joins me to discuss the national debt crisis, inflation, possible price suppression of hard assets and the contrasting roles of gold and Bitcoin as sound money.  Summary In this conversation, Stephan Livera and Lawrence Lepard delve into pressing economic issues, including the national debt crisis, inflation, and the contrasting roles of gold and Bitcoin as sound money. They discuss the implications of the upcoming US election on economic policies and the market dynamics of gold and Bitcoin. The conversation also touches on the potential for economic suppression and the future predictions for both gold and Bitcoin in light of current financial trends. Takeaways The national debt is accelerating and poses a significant risk. Inflation is likely to rise again due to government policies. Gold is currently viewed as a safe haven, but Bitcoin is seen as the future of sound money. The upcoming US election could have major implications for Bitcoin and economic policies. Gold ETFs have been shrinking while Bitcoin ETFs are growing, indicating a generational shift in investment. The suppression of gold prices has been a long-standing issue, but Bitcoin may not face the same challenges yet. Future predictions suggest Bitcoin could reach $300,000 and gold could hit $5,000 in the next economic crisis. The need for sound money is becoming increasingly urgent as the dollar loses value. A monetary reset may be necessary to address the current economic challenges. Investors should consider diversifying into sound money assets like Bitcoin and gold. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:09) - US Govt. debt spiraling out of control (07:17) - Gold’s reaction to crisis (10:14) - Is inflation inevitable?; Managing interest rates (18:24) - CPI & asset inflation; Overvaluation of assets (24:18) - Sponsors (26:34) - Who is buying the Gold?; Gold vs. Bitcoin  (31:10) - Sponsors (33:12) - What does the US election mean for Bitcoin? (40:10) - What would cutting the size of the state look like? (45:58) - The significance of Bitcoin advocacy (48:43) - Gold & Bitcoin price suppression?  (55:00) - Possible Executive order on Bitcoin in the future? (57:07) - Will ‘The Next Big Print’ send Bitcoin to $350K? Links:  https://x.com/LawrenceLepard https://ema2.com/   Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Nomadcapitalist.com/apply Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

After a long and choppy bull-crab market, Dr. Ross notes that the bull market is here! Dr. Jeff Ross, founder, Vailshire Capital Management, joins me to discuss the ongoing sentiment in the markets, global liquidity, pitfalls and opportunities of this bull cycle, holistic living and more! Summary In this conversation, Dr. Jeff Ross discusses his transition from a bearish to a bullish outlook on Bitcoin and the broader market, emphasizing the importance of liquidity and central bank policies. He explains how liquidity flows impact asset prices, particularly Bitcoin, and outlines his predictions for economic growth and market behavior in the coming years. The discussion also touches on wealth inequality, the role of Bitcoin in addressing economic disparities, and strategies for investors, including the controversial 8% withdrawal rate for Bitcoin holders. Takeaways Liquidity is the key driver of asset prices. The transition from bear to bull markets is influenced by liquidity flows. Central banks play a significant role in market dynamics. Bitcoin is seen as a solution to wealth inequality. The US dollar remains the strongest currency despite global challenges. High liquidity environments lead to increased risk-taking behavior. Investors should consider Bitcoin as a significant part of their portfolio. Timing the market can be beneficial for fund managers but not for regular investors. The 8% withdrawal rate is reasonable for Bitcoin holders. Future economic growth may surprise - to the upside. Timestamps: Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:48) - Why is Dr. Jeff bullish?; Shift from bull-crab to bull (03:29) - The significance of M2 Money Supply & Global Liquidity (07:44) - Will the Fed rate cut increase asset prices? (10:38) - Liquidity into 2025? (16:09) - Recession fear overblown? (22:05) - Ever-increasing US Govt. debt and currency collapse across the world (30:07) - “Easy money begets stupid & risky behavior” (37:35) - Detachment of Bitcoin halving cycles from other major cycles (40:10) - Bhutan on a Bitcoin stacking spree; Changing world-order (44:01) - How do Gold & Bitcoin perform in a high liquidity environment? (47:23) - Asset allocation wrt Bitcoin for Institutional investors (53:23) - $475K Bitcoin target in play? (57:12) - Caution to take during a bull cycle (1:00:47) - Financial independence & 8% Withdrawal Rate? (1:07:24) - Closing thoughts Links:  drjeff@nostrplebs.com  https://primal.net/p/npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

Andy Edstrom, Head of Managed Wealth at Onramp Bitcoin rejoins me to discuss the govt. debt levels, retirement planning on Bitcoin, price modeling, risks of leverage yield on Bitcoin and more! Summary In this episode, Andy Edstrom returns to discuss the evolution of Bitcoin since their last conversation, touching on price modeling, the risks of leverage, and the future of Bitcoin loans. They explore the implications of government debt, the role of gold, and the potential for yield in a Bitcoin standard. The conversation emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and preparing for various economic scenarios. Takeaways Bitcoin's evolution has led to increased participation and conversation on the world stage. Price modeling in Bitcoin is fraught with challenges and often fails to predict future movements. Leverage in Bitcoin can lead to significant losses, as seen in past market downturns. The future of Bitcoin loans is uncertain, with a need for better credit analysis and terms. Retirement planning in a Bitcoin world requires careful consideration of inflation and spending habits. Government debt is at an all-time high, raising concerns about future economic stability. Gold still plays a role in the financial landscape, but Bitcoin is seen as the future. Yield may still exist under a Bitcoin standard, but it will differ from current fiat systems. The importance of maintaining on-ramps and off-ramps for Bitcoin in the future cannot be overstated. Expect wild times ahead as economic conditions continue to evolve. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:14) - How has Bitcoin changed since 2019? (04:12) - How significant are Bitcoin Price Models? (11:28) - Preparing for all possible scenarios when Bitcoin price appreciates (14:27) - Should you time the market?; Volatility, Retirement and Tax events to consider. (22:01) - How has the market for leverage on Bitcoin evolved? (27:45) - Sponsors (30:40) - The case for loans with Bitcoin as a collateral  (38:04) - Retirement planning and achieving FIRE with Bitcoin? (43:20) - Bitcoin on its way to $400K? (50:14) - The instability of the growing US Govt. Debt - what happens next? (55:25) - Sponsors (57:47) - The Haves and the Have Nots; Overvaluation of property markets (1:01:57) - What does yield look like on a Bitcoin Standard?  (1:13:22) - Closing thoughts Links:  https://x.com/edstromandrew  https://www.amazon.com/Books-Andy-Edstrom/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3AAndy+Edstrom  https://x.com/OnrampBitcoin/status/1836029421922263074  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Nomadcapitalist.com/apply Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack