Stock Market Updates

Trump’s Tariff Shock: Indian Markets Weather Sixth Straight Week of DeclinesTrump's imposition of hefty tariffs on dozens of countries and a weaker-than-expected jobs report triggered concerns over economic growth. However, US markets recovered steadily, helped by strong quarterly earnings and lower volatility levels compared to earlier months.Technology stocks such as Nvidia and Apple led the rally, with Nvidia benefiting from renewed sales to China and Apple announcing significant domestic investment. By the end of the week, the Nasdaq hit record closing highs for two consecutive days, surging on tech gains and optimism about potential interest rate cuts.Another area of focus was on the seemingly increasing likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at its next meeting in September. Several Fed officials made comments during the week suggesting rate cuts could be in September. The Indian stock market faced a challenging week marked by overall declines for the sixth consecutive week amid continuing investor concerns due to US tariff hikes and geopolitical tensions. Donald Trump’s decision this week to impose a 50% tariff on Indian exports caused significant turmoil in Indian financial markets. Indian markets endured their sixth consecutive weekly decline amid Trump's 50% tariff imposition on Indian exports, triggering considerable turmoil. Export-oriented sectors, including textiles, gems, chemicals, auto ancillaries, and seafood, bore the brunt, disadvantaging Indian goods against competitors like Bangladesh and Ecuador. Nifty is likely to encounter an immediate resistance around 24500-24600 levels, followed by 24800 levels, at which we’ve seen call writing in the weekly expiry. Traders are advised to remain cautious till Nifty closes above the 24800 levels. On the downside, considering an oversold level of FIIs’ long to short ratio, a near-oversold level of Nifty open interest put call ratio and Put writing at 24200-24300 levels, suggests immediate support in this range, followed by 24000 levels. Any close below 24000 levels would result in further long unwinding and short build-up, which might drag Nifty to 23500-23700 levels. Indian markets are poised to open mildly subdued as investors stayed cautious ahead of key economic data this week and a looming deadline for the potential extension of US tariffs on Chinese exports.

Indian Markets Anticipate RBI Monetary Policy EasingUS indices fell, erasing gains from Monday's rally, as tariff concerns and disappointing economic data weighed on markets. Losses were broad-based, with growth sectors leading declines following weaker-than-expected data.President Trump's threats to impose new tariffs on India and pharmaceuticals, combined with broader trade policy uncertainty, unsettled investors. The ISM Services PMI missed forecasts at 50.1, raising fresh concerns about economic momentum.Despite the economic slowdown signals and Wednesday's decline, equity losses were limited by high market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September.The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in June on reduced consumer goods imports, with the trade gap with China hitting its lowest level in over 21 years.Post-earnings movers were mixed: Palantir surged 7% on better-than-expected results, while AMD and Snap declined after missing revenue or profit targets. Housing and transportation stocks also saw notable strength on the day, while utilities and semiconductor stocks moved to the downside.The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points when it announces its decision today at 10 AM, following its three-day meeting. Governor Sanjay Malhotra will deliver the announcement. Markets anticipate the rate cut as a response to potential global economic slowdown triggered by the US reciprocal tariffs on international trade. Soft inflation data and moderate demand provide room for an accommodative stance, though global uncertainties—including US trade policies—may influence the policy statement's tone.The expected cut would inject liquidity into the domestic economy to shield it from global trade disruptions.Nifty managed to close above its 100 DEMA, currently at 24595. The recent swing low of 24,535 is expected to serve as immediate support. On the upside, 24,785 and 24,950 are two key hurdles for Nifty.Indian markets are expected to open flat to slightly negative, likely marking time until the 10:00 AM RBI announcement. Market movement will then align with the central bank's rate decision and policy stance for the near term.

U.S. Markets Rally on Fed Rate Cut ExpectationsU.S. equity markets surged Monday, delivering their strongest single-day performance since May. The NASDAQ jumped 2.0% to 21,053.58, the S&P 500 gained 1.5% to 6,329.94, and the Dow rose 1.3% to 44,173.64. Tech megacaps led the advance, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta reaching new highs.The rally followed last week's sharp selloff triggered by disappointing July employment data and downward revisions to prior months. While the weak jobs report heightened recession concerns, it also boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, odds of a September quarter-point cut surged to 91.9% from 63.1% a week earlier.Market volatility has been amplified by the new Trump administration's tariffs of 10%-41% on multiple trading partners, raising inflation and trade disruption fears. Monday's gains reflect investor hopes that imminent Fed easing will offset these headwinds.Second-quarter earnings provided additional support, with over 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations. Technology and AI-focused firms delivered particularly robust results, reinforcing confidence despite economic uncertainty.European markets followed the U.S. higher, with Germany's DAX climbing 1.4%, France's CAC 40 advancing 1.1%, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 gaining 0.7%.In Asia, Japan also saw significant economic developments. A Labour Ministry panel proposed a 6% hike in the national average minimum wage—the largest increase since the current system began in 2002. The proposal would raise the average salary to 1,118 yen (\$7.57) per hour, surpassing last year’s 5% rise, as the government pushes for wage-led growth.The Nifty registered a relief rally yesterday, the first session of the week, rising 157 points (0.64%) to close at 24722. A clear sign of the market's improved sentiment was the widespread buying interest across sectors. Barring Nifty FMCG, which ended marginally in the red, all other sectoral indices closed the day in the green. U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans on Monday to "substantially" raise tariffs on India, citing the country's continued purchases and sales of Russian oil amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. In a post on Truth Social, Trump accused India of profiting from Russian crude while ignoring the humanitarian consequences of the war. However, he did not specify the timeline or scale of the proposed tariff hike.Nifty has been consistently finding support at its 100-day DEMA, and yesterday's strong close has raised hopes for a pullback rally. The recent swing low of 24535 is now considered a support level, while the 50-day DEMA, located near 24900, is expected to offer resistance.Indian markets are poised to open subdued on the back of Donald Trump’s threat to increase tariffs.

All Eyes on RBI This WeekThe Indian stock market remained bearish for the fifth consecutive week, the longest in two years,marked by significant declines amid persistent global trade tensions and domestic uncertainties. Sentiments remained subdued, driven mainly by heavy selling from Foreign Institutional Investors, weak corporate earnings, particularly in banking and IT, and concerns over India-US trade talks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit new record highs last week, fueled by optimism over a U.S.-European Union trade deal that reduced tariffs to 15%, improving trade outlook and investor sentiment. Crude oil prices fell after OPEC+ agreed to another output increase, stoking concerns about global oversupply just as the US-led trade war may be exacting a toll on economic growth. Market players are eager to know whether the RBI will choose to continue frontloading policy support during the August monetary policy review by announcing a 25-basis point (bps) repo rate cut at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for August 4-6, or whether it will maintain the status quo after having already reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points earlier this year. The Reserve Bank of India's six-member MPC is also expected to retain its neutral policy stance while revising the inflation projection for FY26 downward.Indian markets are poised to open marginally higher today. Bulls will try to defend the crucial support zone around 24500-25400 levels (multiple swing lows of May-June 25). 24200 is a vital long-term support (200-day EMA) for the markets. The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision, auto monthly sales data, and major earnings releases will drive the markets this week.

Equities Lose Ground as Early Gains FadeU.S. stocks closed lower on July 31, with the S&P 500 down 0.37% and Nasdaq off 0.55%, as early optimism from Big Tech earnings faded amid late session volatility and cautious investor positioning.Strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta initially boosted sentiment and futures, but this enthusiasm was not broad-based. Other tech and semiconductor names, including Nvidia, faced profit-taking, undercutting sustained momentum in the indices.A sharp drop in health care shares followed White House demands for lower prescription drug prices, while semiconductors slumped after mixed results and outlooks. This weighed on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, contributing to the down session.Amazon beat analyst expectations for the second quarter. However, it gave weak profit guidance, sending the company's shares tumbling 7% in after-hours trading Thursday.The Federal Reserve held rates steady, but Chair Powell's hawkish commentary kept hopes for near-term cuts in check.June PCE inflation data showed persistent pricing pressures, partly due to tariff-driven import costs, reinforcing Fed reluctance to ease soon. This added to investor wariness and helped drive the late pullback in equities.Most markets across the Asia-Pacific region are trading lower on Thursday. Back home, after a two-session pullback, the Nifty resumed its downward trajectory yesterday, primarily on the back of US President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on India and ended the day with a loss of 86 points (0.35%) at 24,768. The broader market felt the pinch as well. Both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices underperformed the Benchmark Indices, each losing 1%. Trump’s new tariffs are impacting the Indian market outlook in the short term.The Indian Rupee's woes continued, extending its falling spree by depreciating another 17 paise against the greenback to close at 87.59. This marks a near six-month low for the Indian Rupee, its weakest level since February 7th, 2025. Out of Nifty pack, ITC is going to declare its quarterly results today while from F&O stocks, eight companies are going to declare their Q1 earnings.Nifty broke the four series winning streak by falling 3.06% in the July derivative series. Bank Nifty too snapped its four series winning streak as it corrected 2.18% in the July series.FIIs positioning In the Index Futures Segment – Higher Possibility of a Short Covering by ThemFIIs' long-to-short ratio in index futures at the beginning of the August series stood at extremely oversold level of 0.11, as against 0.61 in the last series. This is the lowest since 29 March 2023 (beginning of April 23 series). In other words, out of total positions of FIIS’ in the Index Futures segment, 90% is on the short side. There are four instances (After March 2020) where FIIS long to short ratio at the beginning of the series stood at or below 0.15 (30-May-2024, 26-Oct-23, 29-March-2023 and 29-Sept-2022). If we were to see performance of Nifty in the subsequent series, Nifty had moved up in all the four series and average gain of Nifty was over 7%. Therefore, considering the historical evidence, there are higher possibilities of a short covering by FIIS in the Index Futures segment in the days to come.Indian markets are poised to open lower in line with negative global cues.Recent swing lows of 24598 and 24473 will continue to serve as immediate support. On the upside, the 50-day EMA, positioned near 24930, is expected to remain a strong hurdle for the Nifty.

Donald Trump’s 25% tariff will hurt Indian market sentimentsUS President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on India (plus a potential penalty) starting August 1. This is similar to the tariff announced on liberation day (April 2) and is somewhat higher than the overall weighted average tariff on all imports of 18%. Among EM peers, Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines have lower tariffs than India (~20%), Korea has tariffs similar to India (25%) while Bangladesh (35%) and China (55%) have higher tariffs. This is likely to slow down India’s goods exports to the US (USD87bn; ~20% of India’s goods exports, ~2.5% of GDP). Notably, the US market is key for textiles, pharma, electronics, agri and machinery exports.Following the modest pullback seen in the previous session, US stocks showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading day on Wednesday. The S&P 500 edged down 0.13% as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments dampened expectations for a rate cut in September. Investors focused on technology, cushioning the index’s losses amid growing uncertainty around tariffs and monetary policy.The Dow posted a 0.38% decline, its third consecutive drop. Industrial giants and multinational consumer firms faced pressure from ongoing tariff threats and lackluster rate cut signals from the Fed, stoking volatility and caution. U.S. stock index futures trading in green, as gains in Microsoft and Meta following robust earnings buoyed technology shares. Microsoft’s Azure revenue and Meta’s upbeat outlook drove optimism for the sector, with both stocks jumping 6–10% after results.The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, but an unusual split within the committee—with two dovish dissenters—highlighted internal disagreement and added to market unease. Powell emphasized patience and suggested 'no decisions' have been made on autumn easing.Back home, Nifty extended its gains for a second consecutive session, gaining by 33 points (0.14%) to close at 24855. Broader market underperformed the Benchmark Indices yesterday as Nifty Midcap 100 Index registered a modest fall of 0.07%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 Index saw a more pronounced loss of 0.52%. However, market breadth remained positive for the second day in the row, with the advance-decline ratio on the BSE stood at 1.03. The Indian rupee exhibited its most significant single-day decline yesterday since May 8, plummeting by 60 paise against greenback to close at 87.42. This marks a fresh five-month low for Indian rupee. This sharp depreciation was primarily driven by increased month-end dollar demand and outflows from foreign funds. It’s a result heavy day, where sixteen companies from the F&O pack and five Nifty companies – Adani Ent, Coal India, Eicher motors, Hindustan Unilever and Maruti are going to declare their quarterly results today. We expect our markets to open sharply lower as they will respond unfavourably to the US President Donald Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on India and threat of additional penalties for trade with Russia.However, as our markets have partially discounted it by underperforming the global peers over past few weeks, markets will attempt to recover from these initial losses as the day progresses. Today's monthly derivative expiry may add another layer of volatility to trading. Recent swing lows of 24598 and 24473 could now act as immediate support levels. On the higher side, the band of 24,900-25,000 would continue to serve as a substantial hurdle for the Nifty, indicating resistance for any upward moves.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryS&P 500 and Nasdaq Snap Record StreaksAfter failing to sustain an early move to the upside, stocks gave back ground throughout the remainder trading session yesterday. The major averages pulled back well off their early highs before ending the day in negative territory.The pullback on Wall Street may have reflected profit-taking following the upward trend seen over the past several sessions, which saw Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reach new record highs.Investors seemed reluctant to make more significant moves ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, the announcement could impact on the outlook for rates.Disappointing results from Dow components such as UnitedHealth, Boeing, and Merck dragged indexes lower. Meanwhile, strong sales from Visa and AI demand at Corning provided positive spots but could not offset overall weakness.The Labour Department's monthly jobs report is also likely to be in focus in the coming days, along with earnings news from Magnificent Seven members Apple , Amazon , Microsoft and Meta Platforms.The Conference Board released a report showing consumer confidence in the U.S. saw a modest improvement in July. Its consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July after falling to a revised 95.2 in June. Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to increase to 95.8 from the 93.0 originally reported for the previous month.Asia markets traded mixed on Wednesday amid uncertainties related to US tariffs and ahead of the Fed’s Policy decision.Back home, Nifty broke the three-session losing streak, gaining 140 points (0.57%) to close at 24821. A clear sign of the market's improved sentiment yesterday was the widespread recovery across sectors as all sectoral indices ended with gains.The broader market recovered sharply yesterday, with both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices outperforming the benchmark. Market breadth turned positive after eight trading sessions. The advance-decline ratio on the BSE stood at 1.66, marking its highest level in more than a month.However, Indian Rupee continued its downward trajectory, depreciating another 14 paise against the greenback to close at 86.81, reaching its weakest level since March 13, 2025. This depreciation was primarily driven by sustained selling by foreign funds, coupled with a recovery in the US Dollar and an increase in crude oil prices.Two Nifty companies – Power grid and Tata steel are going to declare their quarterly results today. The Nifty's close near the day's high yesterday resulted in a bullish "Engulfing" candlestick pattern on the daily chart. Indian markets are poised to open flat to mildly negative in line with subdued Asian cues, though Bulls will attempt a recovery from lower levels today. Yesterday's low of 24598 now establishes itself as a new support level for the Nifty. In the short term, 24882 and 25000 are seen as crucial hurdles on the upside.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryUS Markets End Choppy Trading Day at New Record Closing HighsAfter moving modestly higher early in the session, stocks turned into a relatively lackluster performance over the trading day on Monday. Despite the choppy trading, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reached new record closing highs.The early strength on Wall Street came amid news that the U.S. and the European Union had struck a last-minute trade agreement, as well as reports suggesting that the U.S. and China are likely to extend their tariff truce for another 90 days.Markets absorbed news of a 15% U.S.-EU tariff deal, halving previous threats and adding certainty. The subdued move signals investors had already priced in an accord after last week’s Japan agreement, though relief remains a market tailwind.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 0.14%, the only primary U.S. index to post a loss. The S&P 500 closed marginally higher to post its sixth consecutive record close, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.33%. This divergence reflects shifts away from traditional industrials toward technology and growth sectors.A looming flood of earnings, including top tech names, plus the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, is keeping risk appetite in check.Investors are monitoring for signals on U.S. economic resilience and interest rate direction as volatility could rise.Asian stocks are largely trading in the red after a flat session on Wall Street, as investors stayed cautious amid a week loaded with important economic data releases and corporate earnings.Back home, Nifty experienced its third consecutive session of declines yesterday, falling by 156 points (0.63%) to close at 24680. The pain was even more in the broader market, with both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices continuing their underperformance with respect to the benchmark. Market breadth remained weak for the eight consecutive days, where declining shares outnumbered the advancing ones. The advance-decline ratio on the BSE stood at 0.44, reaffirming the pervasive bearish sentiment.Indian Rupee continued its falling spree, depreciating another 16 paise against the greenback to close at 86.67. This marks its lowest level since June 23rd. The weakening Rupee is largely attributed to a strengthening dollar and persistent foreign fund selling in the Indian market.Three Nifty companies – Asian paints, Larsen & Toubro and NTPC are going to declare their quarterly results today. Nifty remains in a short-term downtrend. The next significant support level for the index is seen near 24,500. On the upside, the previous swing low support of 24,882 is now expected to act as a crucial resistance level, indicating that any recovery attempts might face stiff selling pressure around that mark.Indian markets are poised to open subdued in line with global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryTrade Deal Uncertainty Impacts Market Sentiments.US markets posted solid weekly gains, with the S&P 500 rising 1.1%, the Nasdaq gaining 1.2%, and the Dow advancing 1.3%. The S&P 500 achieved its fifth consecutive record close on July 25, reaching above 6,389 points—its longest winning streak in over a year. The Nasdaq crossed 21,000 for the first time, while the Dow recovered from early-week weakness.Strong corporate earnings drove the rally, with 83% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings beating expectations. Technology companies led gains, particularly Alphabet, which delivered better-than-expected results, though Intel's loss warning tempered some sector enthusiasm.Market volatility declined significantly, with the VIX falling to its lowest level in five months. Bond yields remained stable, while economic indicators, including retail sales and employment data, continued to show resilience.Trade optimism further boosted sentiment as investors anticipated deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines ahead of President Trump's August 1 tariff deadline. The upcoming meeting between Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has raised hopes for a US-EU agreement. However, Trump's stance appears to have hardened as the deadline approaches. Investors are now focusing on key economic reports and next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting, which could drive further market moves as earnings season intensifies.Indian officials maintain cautious optimism regarding a potential U.S. trade deal, though uncertainty prevails with few days remaining before possible tariff increases. Indian markets continued its southward journey for the fourth consecutive week as trade uncertainty and disappointing corporate earnings weighed on investor sentiment.Nifty50 dropped 0.5% to 24,837 points, slipping below the key 25,000 level crossed on July 21. The pain was even more acute in the broader market on Friday, with both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices significantly underperforming the benchmark. Market breadth remained weak for the seventh consecutive day, where declining shares surpassed advancers. The advance-decline ratio on the BSE stood at 0.40, the lowest since 19-June. Nifty violated the previous swing low support of 24882 on closing basis. Positional trend of Nifty has turned bearish as it has also violated its 50 DEMA for the first time since 11th April 2025, which further confirms the weakness in the Indian market. Supports for the Nifty are now seen at 24742 and 24500 levels. On the upside, resistance has shifted down to 25000.Despite the near-term volatility, underlying economic indicators remain robust, offering bulls reason for optimism about a potential recovery from current levels.Indian markets are poised to open subdued in line with Asian market cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryPositive Economic Indicators Contribute To Record Highs On Wall StreetThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs, extending a strong streak for major indices. Gains were driven by robust U.S. retail sales, upbeat jobless claims, and strong earnings results, especially from tech and consumer firms. With the continued upward move, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reached new record closing highs.The continued strength on Wall Street followed the release of a batch of largely upbeat U.S. economic data, including a Commerce Department report showing that retail sales rebounded by much more than expected in June.A report released by the Labour Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly dipped to a three-month low in the week ended July 12th.The Labour Department also released another report showing that import prices in the U.S. inched up by less than expected in June.The dollar headed for a second straight weekly gain against major peers, buoyed by some solid U.S. economic data that supported the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait a while longer before cutting interest rates again.Netflix topped second-quarter earnings expectations, beating on both the top and bottom lines and raising its full-year revenue guidance as the streamer continues to stand out amid a tech-driven market.Yesterday, on the weekly expiry session, profit booking set in post a higher opening and continued throughout the day. Nifty finally ended the session with a loss of 111 points or 0.40%, to close at 25111. Nifty failed to sustain 20 DEMA resistance. Nifty is still passing through a choppy trend, where immediate support is seen at 25000; below this level, long bets should be called off. On the higher side, 25250 could act as short-term resistance. The broader market also experienced profit booking, mirroring the benchmark indices. Indian markets are poised for a muted opening, as sentiment among banking stocks is expected to be especially cautious in response to Axis Bank’s latest financial results, which fell short of market expectations. Notably, Axis Bank's GDR tumbled 4.8% to $ 64.30 on Thursday, following a deterioration in the bank’s asset quality during the June quarter.Any progress toward finalising trade agreements with the U.S. in the coming days is likely to reduce uncertainty and energise the bulls.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryVolatility on Fed Chair DramaU.S. markets advanced modestly as a mix of strong bank earnings and cooler inflation readings helped calm investor concerns about ongoing trade tariff tensions.Stocks experienced notable volatility mid-session after reports that President Trump was preparing to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Stocks quickly rebounded when Trump clarified he was 'not planning' such a move, calming markets and easing volatility.The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.10%, both closing at or near new highs. The Dow outperformed, up 0.53%, on strength in financials and healthcare.Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June came in cooler than expected, aiding relief rallies. The softer inflation print reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts later this year, despite the impact of tariff-related price increases.The largest U.S. banks—JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo—delivered strong second-quarter profits, outpacing analyst forecasts.Proposed new tariffs from the White House created uncertainty, especially for multinational companies. However, a weaker dollar offered some earnings relief for firms with significant foreign sales. Despite the Nasdaq’s fresh high, breadth was poor, and several tech leaders saw profit-taking. Investors favoured defensive and cyclical names amid ongoing volatility sparked by geopolitics and central bank policy uncertainty.Back home, the Nifty 50 experienced an early dip, touching intraday lows at 25,121 yesterday. However, buying emerged at lower levels, initiating a smart recovery post-11 AM, which propelled the index to close modestly in the green, gaining 16 points or 0.06% to settle at 25,212. Among the sectoral indices, PSU Banks, Media, and IT ended as major gainers, while the Metal, Healthcare, and Pharma sectors ended in the red. The crucial 50-day DMA support at 25000 for the Nifty remains intact. As long as this important level of 25000 holds, bulls are likely to maintain their dominance. On the upside, 25331 could offer short-term resistance in Nifty.Indian markets are poised to open higher on the back of positive global cues. Weekly derivative expiry at the NSE will drive today's market activity after the opening.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryNvidia leads the market higher.Nvidia helped fuel a tech rally that saw the AI darling jump by 1.8 per cent and become the first public company to reach a market capitalisation of $4 trillion.Equity markets closed higher on Wednesday, following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on seven countries. To date, President Trump has announced new tariffs on 21 countries this week, with tariff rates ranging from 20% to 40%. Trump was particularly harsh on Brazil, imposing a 50% duty on goods from Brazil. The strength on Wall Street may partly reflect optimism about a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union. A news report indicated EU negotiators are closing in on a trade deal with the U.S. that would cement higher tariffs than those granted to the U.K.Asian stocks rose slightly on Thursday, buoyed by optimism following Nvidia's brief surge to a world-record $4 trillion valuation, as investors largely shrugged off U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff announcements.U.S. copper futures widened their premium to the London benchmark overnight as U.S. President Donald Trump ramped up his global tariff assault on Wednesday, announcing a new 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports, which will take effect on August 1. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, which revealed most participants generally agree the central bank is well-positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook for inflation and the economy before adjusting interest rates.The Fed's "wait and see" approach comes as participants said economic growth and the labour market remain solid and described monetary policy as moderately or modestly restrictive.Back home, Nifty fell sharply in the last hour of trade yesterday, signalling profit booking. The session finally settled with a loss of 46 points (0.18%), closing at 25,476.An attempt by the Nifty to surpass the previous session’s high failed, with the index turning southward after making a double top at 25,548. However, the Nifty managed to hold its level above the previous session’s low, indicating an ongoing consolidation within its primary uptrend. Support and resistance levels for the Nifty remain at 25,331 and 25,670, respectively. A decisive breakout from this range would give a directional view in the index.Any progress in finalising trade agreements over the coming weeks and months should reduce uncertainty, while any flexibility in lowering tariffs should help contain inflation and growth concerns.Indian markets are poised to open subdued, but are likely to witness higher volatility as the session progresses to negotiate weekly derivatives expiry and position ahead of a slew of quarterly results, starting with Tata Elxsi and TCS.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryU.S. Stocks Pull Back Sharply Amid Renewed Trade Concerns, India Awaits a Trade Deal. Shares on Wall Street fell after Trump sent letters to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, unveiling sharply higher tariffs on imports into the United States, while also postponing their implementation to August 1.The imposition of a 25% levy on U.S. importers of all goods from key allies Japan and South Korea rattled Wall Street, with the S&P 500 Index dropping sharply; however, markets in Asia took the latest news in stride.Trump also announced separately that countries aligning with specific policies of the BRICS bloc of developing countries would face an additional 10% tariff.WTI oil traded higher amid a tight supply market despite OPEC+ hiking output more than expected at its July 6 meeting.Trump mentioned that the US is close to making a trade deal with India. We believe that if the India-US trade deal is announced, Indian markets will experience a relief rally, even if the deal's terms differ from initial market expectations, the simple removal of uncertainty around higher tariffs should drive this positive response.Nifty consolidated in the narrow range of 80 points throughout the session yesterday. The short-term trend of the Nifty remains positive, as it is positioned above its important moving averages. Immediate support for the Nifty is now seen at 25,331, while resistance is expected to stay in the range of 25,600-25,670, as the market awaits clarity on the evolving global trade landscape.Indian indices are poised to open lower, in line with cues from the US market, and are likely to track developments related to the US-India trade deal.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryGlobal shares breathe a sigh of relief as Trump delays European Tariffs - Indian markets are poised to open positively.President Trump had initially planned to impose a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union, effective June 1, which had negatively impacted global markets. The reversal of this stance is now helping Western markets recover from their earlier decline.US and European equity-index futures climbed alongside Asian stocks today after President Donald Trump extended the deadline on aggressive European tariffs, providing relief to international markets.Shares of nuclear power companies closed higher on Friday following President Donald Trump's signing of executive orders aimed at jumpstarting the atomic energy industry in the United States.The US dollar'*s value relative to a basket of other major currencies fell to its lowest level in four weeks, with the dollar *down nearly 9% year-to-date as of Friday.The price of Bitcoin, the most widely traded cryptocurrency, climbed for the sixth consecutive week and hit a record high of nearly $112,000 last week, continuing its strong upward momentum.India's GDP growth data, US Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and US inflation figures represent essential economic indicators scheduled for release this week that could significantly impact market sentiment.India's Q4 GDP data, set to be released on May 30, will be crucial in determining whether the country's economy is gaining momentum or reaching a plateau in its growth trajectory.The minutes from the May 6-7 US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be closely analysed by investors and economists for insights into the Federal Reserve's future stance on interest rate policy.Indian markets posted negative returns for the past week, with both the Sensex and Nifty declining nearly 1% each, driven by escalating global trade tensions, fiscal deficits, rising bond yields, and renewed fiscal concerns in major economies.Geopolitical uncertainties, the ongoing earnings season, institutional capital flows, and derivatives expiry dates are serving as the primary drivers of volatility in Indian equity markets during this period.Strong domestic demand, fuelled by recent tax cuts and recovering rural consumption due to an above-normal monsoon season, remains a key positive driver for India's economic growth prospects.The Nifty's short-term trend remains positive as it trades above its 20-day exponential moving average. Immediate resistance levels are at 24,946 and 25,116, while support levels are identified at 24,748 and 24,685.Indian equity markets are poised to open positively, buoyed by the relief generated from President Trump's decision to extend the deadline on European tariffs rather than implementing them immediately.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryU.S. Markets Retreat as Investors Reassess Recent OptimismU.S. equity markets closed modestly lower Tuesday during a session marked by minimal economic data releases. The pullback follows a robust rebound over the past month, prompting investors to question the sustainability of recent optimism fuelled by apparent easing in trade tensions and inflation concerns.Technology stocks have been the primary drivers of recent market gains and have experienced broad declines. Industry leaders Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft all closed in negative territory. The sector dropped 0.5% as investors locked in profits following the extended rally and sentiment shifted amid renewed macroeconomic uncertainties.Notable movements within the S&P 500 included a sharp decline in FICO shares following heightened regulatory scrutiny, while Moderna surged on favourable vaccine guidance. Defensive sectors, including healthcare and consumer staples, outperformed the broader market, reflecting investors' increasing preference for safer assets amid growing economic uncertainty.Over recent weeks, easing trade tensions and persistently robust economic data have fuelled a remarkable 20% rally in the S&P 500 since its April 8 low. U.S. small- and mid-cap equities have exhibited powerful momentum during this period, with the Russell Mid-cap Index advancing 21% since April 8, while the Russell 2000 Index, which tracks smaller companies, has gained 19.5% from its recent bottom. This balanced performance across market segments suggests a broad-based economic recovery rather than one concentrated in a few large companies.Despite the temporary suspension of specific U.S.-China tariffs, investors continue to doubt the longevity of trade relief measures. Additional concerns centre around President Trump's proposed tax cuts, which critics suggest could significantly increase the federal deficit. Market apprehension intensified as major retailers like Walmart cautioned about potential price increases, further stoking inflation worries.Oil prices jumped more than 1% on Wednesday following reports that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, heightening concerns that conflict could disrupt supply chains in the critical Middle East production region.Asia-Pacific equities advanced today despite Wall Street ending its six-day winning streak. Stock benchmarks in Japan, South Korea, and Australia gained ground, pushing a broader index of regional shares up 0.4% in early trading.Indian equity benchmarks declined sharply yesterday amid reports of increasing COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asian countries like Singapore and Hong Kong. The Nifty fell for the third consecutive session, shedding 261 points (1.05%) to close at 24,683, while the BSE Sensex dropped 873 points (1.06%) to 81,186.Japanese bond sell-off has elevated borrowing costs, contributing to global market uncertainty and dampening risk appetite.Technically, Nifty closed below its 5-day EMA for the first time since May 8, 2025, suggesting a shift to profit-booking. Support levels lie at 24,494 and 24,378, while resistance is expected in the 24,800-24,900 range. In the absence of strong global cues, Indian markets are likely to pick up from where they left off yesterday.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryJapan's PM Raises Alarm on Economic Challenges, Late U.S. Market Recovery to Boost Our Markets' Opening.US stocks recovered from steep early-session losses and closed slightly higher on Monday. Investors digested news that a major ratings agency had downgraded its U.S. federal government debt assessment. The major averages climbed well off their session lows before ending the day modestly higher. The 10-year Treasury shot up to 4.56% early Monday, its highest intraday level in over a month. However, it was at 4.45% in late trading, little changed from its close on Friday.On the U.S. economic front, the Conference Board released a report showing that its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators slumped more than expected in April. The report said the leading economic index tumbled by 1.0 per cent in April after sliding by a downwardly revised 0.8 per cent in March. Economists had expected the leading economic index to decrease by 0.8 per cent compared to the 0.7 per cent drop originally reported for the previous month.U.S. Federal Reserve officials took on cautiously the ramifications of the latest downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating and unsettled market conditions as they continued to navigate a very uncertain economic environment.Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has firmly rejected the idea of tax cuts funded through additional debt issuance, warning that Japan’s fiscal health is in a worse state than Greece's. Speaking in Parliament, Ishiba noted that the country is witnessing a shift toward positive interest rates, citing recent moves by the central bank to unwind its decades-long stimulus policy. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to a six-week high of 1.48%, while the 30-year yield eased to 2.87%.China’s industrial production in April grew 6.1% YoY, surpassing expectations of 5.7%, though slightly down from the 7.7% rise recorded in March. However, retail sales disappointed, rising only 5.1% YoY compared to a forecast of 6.0% and slower than March’s 5.9% growth.Nifty fell for the second day in a row on Monday amid weak global cues. The Indian Rupee exhibited strength, appreciating by 10 paise against the greenback to settle at 85.40. This upward movement in the rupee can be attributed to cooling crude oil prices and a softening of the US dollar. Nifty is placed above all key moving averages, indicating the continuation of an uptrend. Immediate support for the Nifty is seen in the band of 24750-24800, while positional support stands at 24500. On the upside, resistance is placed at 25116 and 25207.U.S. futures had suggested a soft opening for American markets when our markets closed yesterday. However, U.S. markets ultimately recovered all their early losses by the closing bell, and hence our markets are expected to open with 0.5% gains today.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryUS Credit Rating Downgrade to Temper Global Market Sentiment, Local Small and Midcap Stocks are likely to Remain Resilient.Moody’s Investors Service cut the United States' credit rating, citing concerns over rising debt and political deadlock. This is a jolt to US markets, though it may not impact it immediately, as Moody’s is the last of the three major credit agencies to maintain a top-tier rating for the US.In the long run, the US establishment must take corrective measures, as a failed or significantly undersubscribed Treasury auction would represent a severe shock to global financial markets. Such an event could precipitate a crisis of confidence in US government debt, potentially leading to sharp increases in borrowing costs across the economy and rapid asset repricing in equity and corporate debt markets.Last week, Indian equity markets experienced a significant rally, easing geopolitical tensions and upbeat global cues. The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, recovering much of the ground lost during the April tariff-induced selloff. Most U.S. stocks’ weekly gains came following trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies. U.S. and Chinese negotiators agreed to sharply reduce rates for many recently introduced tariffs for 90 days while pursuing further talks that could result in a longer-term agreement.Continuous institutional buying in cash markets, FPIs' net short positions in the index markets, and positive surprises on Q4FY25 earnings season in select stocks make us believe that broad-based growth may give way to more sector and stock-specific performance in the coming periods.The Nifty registered a rally of more than 4% last week, backed by strong broader markets. The Nifty Midcap100, Smallcap100, and Microcap250 indices outperformed the Nifty by soaring 7.21%, 9.17%, and 9.99%, respectively. The next resistance for the Nifty is seen in the band of 25200-25300, where 76.4% and 78.6% retracement levels are placed, respectively. Previous resistance of 24545, derived by 61.8% retracement, is expected to interchange its role as a support going forward for Nifty.Indian markets are poised to open cautiously in response to sobering signals from US market futures following the sovereign ratings downgrade, though local small and midcap stocks are expected to maintain their resilience.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryTrade war truce between USA & China lifts sentiments across the globe, lower inflation print will propel the RBI to cut rates in the forthcoming policyThe S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed higher on Tuesday for a second straight day after softer-than-expected inflation numbers added to investor optimism after the U.S. and China announced a trade truce on Monday.The Dow fell, however, with its biggest drag a 17.8% slide in shares of UnitedHealth after the insurance bellwether suspended its annual forecast and its CEO stepped down.Stocks, oil and bond yields rose, lifted by the optimism surging through markets that the worst of the global trade crisis is past and that the growth outlook is much brighter than it looked only a few days ago.U.S. stock futures were largely unchanged Tuesday evening after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher on optimism around the U.S.-China trade deal, and a softer-than-expected consumer inflation print.NVIDIA Corporation shares closed 5.6% higher on Tuesday after the company announced the sale of 18,000 AI chips to a Saudi Arabian company, Humain. The Saudi-based company intends to use the chips to build its 500 megawatt data centre.Bond yields finished the day modestly higher, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising to just above the 4% mark while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.48%.Headline CPI rose by 0.2% for the month and 2.3% on an annual basis, while core CPI rose by 0.2% in April and 2.8%. The modest increase in core CPI brought the three-month annualised change in core CPI down to 2.1%, the lowest reading since July 2024.Results have been broadly positive, with roughly 78% of companies announcing better-than-expected earnings with an average upside surprise of 8.6%. Earnings growth is on pace to rise by 13% for the quarter, up from estimates of only 7% at the beginning of April.India's headline inflation slowed to 3.16% YoY—the lowest since July 2019. With crude oil prices sharply easing, domestic demand softer, and food prices contained, we expect the RBI to cut rates aggressively.Nifty witnessed profit booking in yesterday's session, falling more than 400 points from intraday highs and closing near the session's low. As anticipated, Nifty Midcap and Small Cap indices outperformed the Benchmark Indices. We expect this trend to continue as we approach the end of the earnings season, which has been primarily in line with expectations. Foreign investors have turned aggressive sellers in the cash and derivative markets, which will likely keep markets in check at higher levels.Nifty is still above its 5 and 10-day EMAs, which indicates a continuation of a positional uptrend. On the downside, strong support for Nifty is placed at 24500 and 24378, while on the upside, 24850 and 24975 could offer resistance.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryMarkets to digest recent gainsU.S. equity markets rose sharply to start the week, as the United States and China agreed to a 90-day pause on the escalating tariffs placed on each other and will temporarily reduce their respective levies. The two countries announced this in a rare joint statement following high-stakes trade talks over the weekend. The Dow closed higher by 1,161 points, or 2.81%. The broader S&P 500 gained 3.26%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 4.35%. The three major indexes each posted their biggest single-day gains in over one month.Investors showed greater appetite for riskier assets, including stocks. The US dollar rose 1.4% against a basket of currencies. US oil, which had tumbled as investors feared a demand vacuum because of a tariff-induced global recession, surged 1.52% to $61.95 a barrel. Brent crude rose 1.64% to $64.96 a barrel.Investors sold off safe-haven assets, such as gold, which tumbled 2.7%. US Treasuries also fell, sending the 10-year yield back above 4.45%. Japan’s yen fell 2% against the dollar.The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, sank more than 15% to its lowest level since the end of March.India proposed to impose retaliatory duties on U.S. products under World Trade Organisation norms in response to American tariffs on steel and aluminium, which were implemented as safeguard measures. India stated that its proposed suspension of concessions would result in an equivalent amount of duty collected from products originating in the U.S., aiming to balance the impact of the U.S. measures.The Indian stock market skyrocketed today, logging its biggest intraday gains in the last four years. The Nifty 50 ended 3.82% higher at 24924.Nifty surpassed the crucial resistance of 24857 and closed above it. Next resistance for the Index is seen at 25207, which happens to be a 76.4% retracement of the entire fall from 26277 to 21743. Support has now shifted upwards to 24590.Following yesterday's stupendous rise, Indian benchmark indices will likely consolidate recent gains, while we anticipate continued buyer interest in mid-cap and small-cap stocks at lower levels.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryUS stocks rose on a trade deal with the UK - Our markets fell as geopolitical tensions escalated.U.S. equity markets closed higher on Thursday, following a trade agreement between the U.S. and U.K., Which is expected to lower U.S. tariffs on products such as autos, steel, aluminium and aerospace engines imported from the U.K.This is the first trade agreement with a significant trading partner since the U.S. unveiled its tariff plans on April 2. Although the impact of this agreement will be limited, markets reacted favourably, hoping that it could help provide a framework for further negotiations with other trading partners in the weeks ahead.The U.K. was responsible for roughly 2% of U.S. goods imports in 2024, and was the destination for approximately 4% of U.S. goods exports.The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 1.9% to close at its highest level since April 2, when the tariffs were initially announced.On the economic front, weekly initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week, suggesting that the labour market remains stable. However, a separate report showed worker productivity dropped in the first quarter for the first time in nearly three years.Oil prices were little changed early on Friday after rising more than 3% in the previous session, as trade tensions between the top oil consumers, the U.S. and China, showed signs of easing.Japanese stocks jumped, supported by the dollar's surge against the yen, after a U.S. trade deal with Britain fuelled hopes of progress in tariff talks with other countries. Bitcoin soared to its highest level since January. Our markets fell yesterday as India-Pakistan border tensions escalated. As we have been alerting our readers, it is prudent to prepare rather than panic. We advise traders to keep leveraged and speculative positions light and use derivatives to hedge short-term exposures. The Nifty mid- and small-cap indices fell sharply along with the Benchmark indices. The Nifty Midcap 100 Index plunged by 1.95%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 Index plummeted by 1.43%. Market breadth turned decisively negative, with declining shares significantly outnumbering advancing ones.The Nifty's short-term trend turned weak as it closed below its 5-day EMA, which was placed at 24340 levels. On the higher side, the 24340-24500 band is likely to act as immediate resistance, while the 23978-23800 could provide immediate support on the downside as markets digest the unfolding geopolitical situation.