Stock Market Updates

HSL Prime ResearchOpening Bell - Morning CommentaryEconomic Tailwinds Set to Ignite Market OptimismU.S. investors breathed a sigh of relief on Wednesday after February inflation figures came in below forecasts, triggering a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq from six-month lows. This positive momentum should help put global markets on a firm footing for Thursday's trading session. Stocks reclaimed lost ground, buoyed by cooler-than-expected inflation readings and a rally in the technology sector. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase was the slowest since April 2021, marking a significant deceleration from when inflation first began surging.Market participants will closely monitor tomorrow's Producer Price Index (PPI) release for additional insights into inflation trends at the producer level. Investors will also remain vigilant regarding any developments on government funding negotiations.In India, February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data registered at 3.61%, substantially below the consensus estimate of 3.98%, indicating a significant easing of inflationary pressures. Simultaneously, industrial output for January jumped to 5%, considerably outpacing projections of 3.5%, demonstrating robust manufacturing activity and production strength across sectors.This dual economic surprise—inflation cooling more rapidly than anticipated while industrial production showing unexpected vigor—creates an ideal macroeconomic environment poised to energize bullish market sentiment.The lower-than-expected CPI inflation, which fell below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4%, has substantially increased the likelihood of another rate cut during the central bank's April monetary policy meeting.Indian markets experienced sharp fluctuations yesterday as weak global cues and escalating trade tensions triggered downgrades in IT stocks, causing indices to oscillate throughout the session. However, strong gains in banking stocks facilitated a market recovery in the second half. The Nifty staged an impressive rebound of 165 points from its intraday low, successfully maintaining support above 22,300 and concluding the session with a minimal decline of 27 points (0.12%), closing at 22,470.For four consecutive trading sessions, the Nifty has traded within a narrow range that will likely be broken to the upside today. A move above 22,677 could trigger a further rally toward the next resistance level at 23,000. On the downside, the support band between 22,245 and 22,300 should continue providing a solid floor for the index.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryShifting Sands - Markets Navigate Trump's Tariff Flip-Flop and Ukraine Ceasefire ProspectsU.S. stocks declined Tuesday, extending the most significant selloff in months, as investors grappled with concerns about how the latest tariff threats might impact the global economy.Markets experienced volatility amid contradictory tariff announcements, though progress toward a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire temporarily buoyed equities.President Donald Trump abruptly reversed his position Tuesday afternoon, abandoning a plan announced just hours earlier to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%. The reversal followed a Canadian official's own retreat from plans to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports.The euro climbed to five-month highs Wednesday on news of Ukraine's willingness to accept a month-long ceasefire, while European stocks fluctuated wildly amid the back-and-forth U.S. tariff proposals and growing concerns about an American economic slowdown.Reaching its highest level since October during New York trading at $1.0947, the euro held steady at $1.0913 during the Asian session. Meanwhile, Russia's ruble strengthened to a seven-month high overnight.The S&P 500 recorded its most significant one-day drop since December 18, wiping out just over $1.3 trillion in market value, and a staggering $4 trillion from its recent peak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq confirmed a 10% correction late last week.The Nifty index staged a remarkable recovery Wednesday, erasing steep early losses to finish in positive territory. After plunging to 22,314 in the opening minutes of trading, the benchmark index rallied over 200 points throughout the session, ultimately closing at 22,497—a gain of 37 points or 0.17%. The Nifty Midcap Index showed even greater resilience, rebounding from morning lows to close 0.67% higher.This recovery from lower levels strengthens the possibility of forming a higher bottom in the short term. A move above 22,700 would confirm a bullish trend reversal for the Nifty, potentially propelling the index toward the 23,000 mark. Support has now shifted upward to approximately 22,300. Indian markets are likely to open mildly lower today on back of softer global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryWall Street Plunges as Recession Fears IntensifyU.S. stocks tumbled Monday amid ongoing tariff conflicts and growing concerns about a potential federal government shutdown, fueling worries that the U.S. economy might be heading toward a recession. Weaker consumer sentiment, slower consumer spending, and tariff risks continue to weigh on the growth outlook. US stocks are also under pressure from a stronger Japanese yen and a spike in bond yields, as investors unwind yen carry trades on expectations of an upcoming interest rate hike in Japan.The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow estimate for first-quarter real GDP growth declined last week to -2.4%, down from 2.3% in late February.The S&P 500 had its biggest one-day drop since December 18 and Nasdaq slid 4.0%, its biggest single-day percentage drop since September 2022. The bellwether S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average, for the first time since November 2023.Asian shares dropped for the third day in a row Tuesday as worries grow that tariffs and government changes could hurt growth in the U.S. economy.The Indian rupee weakened, depreciating by 46 paise to settle at 87.33 against the US dollar. This decline was attributed to concerns surrounding global trade and the fall in equity markets.Nifty ended its three-session winning streak yesterday and dropped 0.4% to close at 22460. Following last week's rebound, the mid and small-cap segments experienced significant profit-taking. Support for Nifty is observed in the range of 22200-22245, while resistance is seen near 22700 for the short term.Indian markets are expected to open approximately half a percent lower, which is a relatively modest decline given the significantly weaker global market conditions. The Indian markets experienced a sharp drop yesterday while most Asian markets gained ground, suggesting they may have already factored in some of the global market downturn yesterday ahead of time.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryNifty's Resilient Comeback Set to Test Critical 22700-22725 Barrier Zone This WeekTrade tensions burdened markets as the S&P 500 recorded its third consecutive weekly decline and steepest weekly drop since September. Market volatility persisted amid uncertainty over President Trump's announced tariffs—25% on Canadian and Mexican imports and an additional 10% on Chinese imports—though the administration later announced various exemptions and delays. The Indian stock market snapped its three-week losing streak, rebounding strongly as investors found value in an oversold market amid hopes that the US might refrain from announcing fresh trade tariffs. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) supported the recovery through value buying as stocks reached attractive levels. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) maintained their selling pattern this month, offloading equities worth ₹15,502 crore during the week. However, this was more than offset by DIIs, who purchased equities valued at ₹20,951 crore.Nifty has staged an impressive recovery of more than 650 points from its recent swing low of 21,964. The short-term trend remains bullish as momentum continues to build. The index now faces key resistance in the 22,700-22,725 range, where the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) coincides with the previous swing low—a technically significant level. Meanwhile, strong support for Nifty continues to be at 22,300.Indian markets are expected to open soft today, following mixed global market cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryVolatility is expected to make its presence felt today.U.S. equity markets closed lower on Thursday, with growth segments leading the downside. Shares of semiconductor manufacturer Marvell fell by nearly 20% after the company reported better-than-expected earnings; however, forward guidance disappointed, highlighting the high bar of expectations for companies exposed to artificial intelligence.Nasdaq fell more than 10% since peaking last December, confirming it is in a correction as U.S. President Donald Trump's announcements on tariffs fuelled investor uncertainty.President Donald Trump suspended on Thursday the 25% tariffs he imposed this week on most goods from Canada and Mexico. This is the latest twist in a fluctuating trade policy that has whipsawed financial markets and fanned worries over inflation and a growth slowdown.The exemptions, covering the two largest U.S. trading partners, expire on April 2, when Trump threatens to impose a global regime of reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. trading partners.The US trade deficit widened to a record in January as companies scrambled to secure goods from overseas before President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on America’s largest trading partners. The gap in goods and services trade widened 34% from the prior month to $131.4 billion, larger than all but one estimate.Investors are keenly awaiting Friday’s employment report to gauge the health of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate trajectory amid fears the new tariffs, coupled with rising raw material costs at factories, suggest inflation may increase in the coming months. Markets in Europe traded modestly lower following the European Central Bank's decision to lower its policy rate by 0.25% to 2.5Asian stocks followed US equities lower as investors retreated from risk assets amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Bitcoin fell as details of a US strategic reserve underwhelmed.Shares in Australia, Japan, and South Korea all fell, with benchmarks sliding more than 1%. On Thursday, an index of US-listed Chinese companies outperformed Wall Street.Back home, Nifty advanced for the second consecutive session yesterday, gaining 207 points (0.93%) to close at 22,544, driven by short covering and firm global cues. Nifty has closed above its 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 22,472, signalling a bullish short-term trend. The next resistance zone is expected between 22720-22725, where the 21-day EMA and previous swing low converge. Support for Nifty has moved higher to 22300.Traders should prepare for larger swings across different asset classes during what might be a period of significant market shifts. Indian markets are poised to open lower on Trump’s tariffs, fuelling uncertainties.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryShort covering to support markets today.US equity markets finished higher on Wednesday following an announcement that the U.S. will exempt autos from the 25% tariffs that were implemented yesterday on imports from Canada and Mexico for one month. The tariff relief boosted sentiment, with the S&P 500 finishing higher by 1.1% while the Nasdaq posted a 1.5% gain.The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, coming in at 53.5 compared to the forecasted 52.5 and the previous month’s 52.8. Additionally, factory orders rebounded strongly, increasing by 1.7% after a revised 0.6% decline in December, marking a 3.5% year-on-year growth in January. Markets in Europe surged following news that Germany will exempt military and defense spending from its strict fiscal-spending rules, allowing the country to increase its defense spending. China has set an economic growth target of "around 5%" for the year while unveiling plans to inject billions into its struggling economy, which remains entangled in a trade dispute with the U.S. Beijing’s measures include issuing 1.3 trillion yuan ($179 billion) in special treasury bonds and increasing local government borrowing capacity to 4.4 trillion yuan from the previous 3.9 trillion yuan. The country aims to generate over 12 million urban jobs and keep the unemployment rate around 5.5 percent for 2025, up from 5.1 percent last year. A global bond selloff accelerated on Thursday, pushing Japanese benchmark yields to the highest in over a decade after heavy selling in German bunds spread across fixed-income markets. A delay to some US tariffs on Mexico and Canada buoyed Asian stocks.Back home, RBI will conduct two OMO purchases worth Rs 50,000 crore each on March 12 and March 18 and a USD/INR Buy/Sell Swap auction of $10 billion for a tenor of 36 months on March 24. This will inject more liquidity into the system. India’s services sector showed resilience, with the Services PMI expanding to 59 in February 2025 from 56.5 the previous month, counterbalancing a slowdown in manufacturing PMI. The Indian rupee strengthened on Wednesday as the dollar index fell, resulting in gains across most Asian currencies.The Nifty closed above its 5-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since February 6, 2025, potentially signalling a reversal from a bearish to a bullish trend in the short term. Resistances for the Index are seen at 22500 and 22700. On the downside 22173 and 22000 could offer support in the Nifty. The market is expected to remain buoyant due to short-covering, as investors—particularly foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)—have substantial short positions in Indian stocks.Indian markets are slated for a positive start today as tariff relief has provided a boost to sentiment.

Opening Bell - Daily Morning CommentaryAll eyes on Trump's SpeechUS President Donald Trump will address a joint session of Congress today. He will lay out his vision in office for the next four years. The address is his first major speech to lawmakers since returning to office in January 2025. Trump's address comes as the administration seeks to reshape the federal government's functioning, crackdown on illegal immigration, and impose sweeping tariffs on countries marking one of the most significant trade escalations in modern US history.Canada and China responded to Trump with retaliatory measures after the US decided to proceed with levies against Canada and Mexico on Tuesday. Shares of U.S. companies were under pressure after the latest escalation in Washington's trade war. New tariffs on Canada and Mexico are expected to hit earnings in several sectors, including automobiles, aerospace, retail, and housing.China kept its economic growth target unchanged at roughly 5% this year, committing more fiscal resources than last year to fend off deflationary pressures and mitigate the impact of rising U.S. trade tariffs. Meanwhile, China's commerce ministry "strongly" opposed the tariff measures and "hoped" that the US would handle issues objectively and rationally.US equity markets closed lower in a volatile trading session on Tuesday as new U.S. tariffs took effect. The benchmark S&P 500 suffered its worst day of this year after the U.S. tariffs were confirmed. Stocks in the Asia Pacific region traded mixed early on Wednesday on the tariff relief signal after President Donald Trump sparked a global selloff.On Tuesday, economically sensitive stocks such as airlines and banks led declines in Wall Street's main indexes on the new tariffs.The U.S. dollar drooped near a three-month low versus major peers on Wednesday, while shares in Asia were mixed after the latest round of U.S. tariffs and countermeasures from Canada and China stoked fears of an escalating trade war.The Nifty index fell for the tenth consecutive session yesterday, the longest losing run in 29 years, to close at 22082. Out of the last 19 trading sessions, only one session has ended in positive territory. Losses in Indian markets were limited compared to global and Asian peers, which saw a significant sell-off after Donald Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Small-cap stocks bounced back sharply after facing severe selling pressure, while mid-cap stocks ended the session with mild gains. Nifty is highly oversold and due for a bounce. 21750-21800 could serve as a support level. On the upside, the 5 DEMA is positioned near 22260, which could act as a resistance level. Indian markets are likely to open subdued on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryStocks tumble after Trump announces tariffsPresident Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will proceed as planned, with all imported products from these nations facing a 25% duty starting Tuesday. With negotiations reaching a deadlock, both countries have exhausted their options to strike a deal. Additionally, Trump announced an extra 10% tariff on Chinese imports, raising the total duty to 20%. US markets had a big selloff, with the Dow swinging from being up +300 points at the open to falling as much as -1,100 points in hours. Most sectors were down, with technology and energy stocks posting the most significant declines. In significant geo-political developments, U.S. President Donald Trump has paused all military aid to Ukraine following his clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week.The OPEC+ cartel's eight members, who are subject to voluntary extra output cuts, will start increasing production in April, planning to add 2.2 million barrels a day over the next 18 months.Asia markets opened lower today, tracking Wall Street's declines overnight. U.S. President Donald Trump made it clear that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go into effect as planned. China is reportedly considering countermeasures to U.S. tariffs. Defense stocks led Europe following meetings among leaders in the region to discuss bolstering military spending.India’s manufacturing sector lost momentum, with factory activity slowing to a 14-month low of 56.3 in February from 57.7 in January. Although new export orders rose, overall demand softened, and job expansion moderated. Indian markets opened in the green yesterday, but the momentum quickly turned negative, with both frontline indices losing half a percent by noon. Strong buying in metals, realty, and IT stocks fuelled a recovery in the second half of the session.Nifty remained above the psychologically important 22,000 mark yesterday and will likely be breached at the open today. A close below this level could pull the Nifty toward the next support band of 21,700-21,750. On the upside, the 22,450-22,500 band may present resistance.

Opening Bell - Daily Morning CommentarySome respite in the offing for the Bulls Relief for the bulls appears to be on the horizon, offering a welcome break from recent challenges. Equity markets closed higher on Friday following U.S. inflation data that matched consensus expectations. Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region opened higher on Monday, shrugging off concerns about tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, while European leaders pledged support for Ukraine.Chinese top officials meet this week to discuss economic priorities, and the market’s hopes run high for further stimulus. To bolster domestic demand, a ramp-up in fiscal spending is expected to be announced at the National People's Congress, as well as measures to defuse a property crisis and put an end to the deflationary spiral.Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, surged after Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would move forward with establishing a crypto strategic reserve.Signs of improvement in local macroeconomic parameters suggest that the current softer patch in earnings growth may soon ease. In February 2025, India’s composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 60.6 points, up from 57.7 in January 2025. India’s Sales Managers Index hit a 63-month high, reflecting rapid economic expansion in February. For the week, Immediate support for the Nifty is expected in the 22,000-22,050 range, below which it could fall further toward the 21777 level. On the upside, the 5-day EMA near 22,500 could serve as resistance. Indian markets are likely to open higher, supported by Friday's positive close in US markets and strength in Asian markets.

HSL Prime Research Opening Bell - Daily Morning CommentaryMarket to Focus on Derivative Rollovers.Stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq modestly higher while the Dow Jones fell. U.S. equity markets also closed lower on Tuesday as consumer confidence declined more than expected.Artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue and adjusted earnings per share. Following the announcement, Nvidia's shares rose 3.7% in extended trading.In economic data, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index increased by 4.5% in December compared to the same period last year, surpassing estimates of 4.4%. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell for the third consecutive month to 98.3 in February, below forecasts of 103.A draft U.S.-Ukraine agreement on critical minerals and strong corporate earnings helped European shares close at a record high.Oil prices hit a two-month low due to a surprise increase in U.S. stockpiles, and the growing prospects for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal affected prices.Asian Pacific stocks displayed mixed reactions following U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariff announcements on the European Union.The Indian rupee closed sharply lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday after experiencing its worst intraday fall in over three weeks, as banks consistently bought dollars.Market attention will centre on rollover activity today, marking the final day of monthly derivative contracts. As traders adjust positions and transfer contracts to subsequent months, these rollover dynamics will likely drive market movements. FII’s expiration-day flows should provide valuable insights into institutional positioning and market sentiment moving forward.The Nifty index extended its losing streak to a sixth consecutive session on Tuesday, registering a slight decline to close at 22,547. Critical support is projected at 22450, based on a 76.4% retracement of the uptrend from 21281 (the low in June 2024) to 26277 (the all-time high reached in September 2024). On the upside, the 22700-22800 band is expected to be a significant resistance level.

Opening Bell - Daily Morning CommentaryTrump's Tariff Plans Weigh on Global SentimentUS equity markets closed lower on Monday, with technology and consumer discretionary stocks leading the decline, reflecting a risk-off sentiment. President Trump confirmed that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect next week after the 30-day pause implemented in early February expires.The Nasdaq Composite fell more than 1%, with significant technology stocks creating the biggest drag as investors expressed concerns about demand for AI-supporting technology while awaiting results from market heavyweight Nvidia. The S&P 500 edged slightly lower, marking its third consecutive day of declines, while the Dow Jones managed to secure a marginal gain. The defensive healthcare sector led percentage gains, rising 0.75%, while technology was the biggest laggard, dropping 1.43%.Asian stocks opened lower on Tuesday following US President Donald Trump's decision to restrict Chinese investments and implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This prompted investors to reduce their positions. The late-session decline in US markets further dampened sentiment. The Indian rupee remained unchanged at 86.71 against the US dollar. Indian markets will be closed on Wednesday, February 26, in observance of Mahashivratri.The Nifty extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive session yesterday, yielding to weak global cues and dropping 242 points (1.06%) to close at 22,553—its lowest level since June 5, 2024. Immediate support for the Nifty is now anticipated at 22450, which coincides with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the swing from 21,281 to 26,277. The previous support level of 22,800 is expected to reverse its role and serve as resistance.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryCautious Mood on D-street – Markets to open lower on weak global cuesMajor U.S. indices retreated during the holiday-shortened week, with sharp losses in the latter half erasing early gains. Walmart's conservative guidance for the upcoming year triggered broader concerns about consumer spending and economic health. Market sentiment further deteriorated amid uncertainty surrounding tariffs and interest rate cuts. Markets were rattled by Trump's announcement of planned additional tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and lumber products.The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite both declined 2.5%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.7% for the week. Geopolitical developments dominated headlines, particularly President Donald Trump's diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Asia market opened lower today after Wall Street logged its worst session of the year last Friday on lacklustre U.S. economic data that pointed to a slowing economy and sticky inflation.Zomato and Jio Financial Services will replace Britannia Industries and Bharat Petroleum Corporation in the Nifty 50, effective March 28.Indian markets are likely to open weak following soft global cues, particularly the sharp decline in U.S. markets on Friday. This potential weakness could push indices below crucial support levels of 22700. Any breach of near-term technical supports might trigger additional selling pressure, potentially driving the Nifty towards the 22450 level. The broader market indices - midcap and small cap are positioned near crucial long-term supports. Market sentiment is cautious amid heightened uncertainty surrounding trade relations and geopolitical tensions.

Opening Bell - Daily Morning CommentaryWalmart's forecast dampened investor risk appetiteU.S. stocks sold off on Thursday as ongoing tariff jitters and a downbeat Walmart forecast dampened investor risk appetite.Dow Jones posted its most significant one-day loss since Jan. 10 — down 450 points, or 1% — while the S&P 500 SPX shed 0.4% after scoring back-to-back record finishes. The Dow had dropped 677 points at its session lows.Walmart, the world's largest retailer, provided current fiscal year sales and profit forecasts that fell short of analysts' expectations, suggesting dampening consumer demand.The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index posted a 0.3% decline in January, all but erasing the gains of the prior two months—the first gains since February 2022.Asian markets are recovering after opening lower on weak US cues. The Bank of Korea will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday, offering support to an economy that barely grew last quarter. After unexpectedly holding its policy rate steady last month, South Korea's central bank signaled it needed to wait for domestic political turmoil, which weighed on the currency, to stabilize before easing further.The yen and gold have been primary safe-haven beneficiaries of the emerging Trump agenda. The dollar/yen fell below 150 to its lowest since early December, while gold got within $50 of $3,000 per ounce. Back home, Nifty fell for the third consecutive session yesterday, weighed down by underperformance in financial heavyweights. Nifty ended the session with a loss of 19 points to close at 22913. The support of 22800 was protected as Nifty made an intraday low at 22812 and recovered from there. The Indian rupee strengthened by 29 paise, breaking out of a five-day consolidation range. This appreciation was fuelled by dollar selling from foreign banks and the continued unwinding of long positions.Nifty Midcap and small-cap indices bucked the trend. Considering the strength in the broader markets, it seems that Nifty is headed higher for the next target of 23235. Trading longs should be protected with 22725 Stoploss in Nifty.Indian markets are likely to open subdued on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Daily Morning CommentaryFederal Reserve meeting minutes signal a pause in interest rate cutU.S. stocks ended modestly higher on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 notched its second straight all-time closing high as investors scrutinized the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting and digested U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans. All three major U.S. equity indexes made gains on the day.At the Fed's January policy meeting, the U.S. central bank left its key interest rate unchanged. The minutes show policymakers expressed concern about stubborn inflation and the potential effect of Trump's policy proposals, particularly tariffs, on their efforts to bring price growth down to their target.US President Donald Trump's tariff threats continued to weigh on risk appetite. Trump announced he would impose tariffs "in the neighborhood of 25%" on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, the latest in a series of measures that have raised concerns over the consequences of a global trade war.China kept its loan prime rates steady, focusing on financial stability. Stocks in Japan and Australia dropped, while equity index futures for Hong Kong also drifted lower after the minutes of the Fed meeting. The Nifty declined for the second consecutive session, concluding the day with a loss of 12 points to settle at 22,932. Although the index demonstrated weakness, the broader market exhibited resilience. The critical support level of 22,800 was successfully protected once again. Should the index surpass 23050, that will pave the way for an extended recovery toward the subsequent resistance of 23235.Markets are expected to start trading on a subdued note today amid escalating concerns regarding trade tensions and the anticipated postponement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate reductions.

Opening Bell - Daily Morning CommentaryAsian shares slipped on the threat of a broader global trade war.All three major US stock indexes swung between losses and gains before turning positive in the final minutes of trading.The S&P 500 edged to a new record close in a shortened holiday week. The market faces several key factors: the end of earnings season, upcoming Federal Reserve minutes, and ongoing global trade tensions. US Quarterly earnings season is nearly complete, with 74% of the 383 S&P 500 companies reporting fourth-quarter results beating expectations. The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its January meeting today. At that meeting, officials kept interest rates unchanged amid inflation concerns and uncertainty over Trump's proposed tariffs.Fed officials have maintained a consistent message. Philadelphia Fed's Harker and Governors Bowman and Waller cited economic strength and high inflation as reasons to maintain current rates. San Francisco Fed's Daly emphasized the need for more apparent progress toward the 2% inflation target before considering rate cuts.Most Asian equities slipped in early trade as the threat of a broader global trade war and geopolitical uncertainty outweighed a rally in chipmakers.Nifty ended the session with a minor loss of 14 points to close at 22945, honouring the crucial 22800 support. The Nifty small-cap Index resumed its downward journey, plunged by 1.59% to close at its lowest level since 26 March 2024.A potential reversal signal would be a move above the 5-day EMA, currently placed around 23,020. Sustained trading above this level could trigger a pullback towards 23,235. Conversely, a break below 22,725 could reignite the downtrend.

HSL Prime Research Opening Bell - Daily Morning CommentaryThe short-term bottom seems in place - 22800 is a key support.US stock markets were closed for trading on Monday for the President's Day Holiday. At least six Fed officials are due to speak this week, and markets will pay attention to their views on future rate cuts. European shares marked record highs on the prospect of a Ukraine peace deal. The Australian dollar stood near a two-month high ahead of a central bank rate decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its cash rate by a quarter-point to 4.10%, its first reduction in over four years.Meanwhile, the rebound in Chinese markets continues, with tech shares listed in Hong Kong hitting a three-year high on Monday as President Xi Jinping sat down with top tech leaders in Beijing. The Hang Seng tech index is up more than 30% in a month.Financial markets are adjusting to the increasing likelihood of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising interest rates sooner and to higher levels than anticipated. Hawkish signals from the central bank, coupled with persistent inflation, have led to a significant surge in Japanese bond yields.The Nifty snapped its eight-session losing streak, posting a modest gain of 30 points, or 0.13%, to close at 22,959.. After hitting early morning lows, the index staged an impressive recovery of nearly 250 points, demonstrating resilience. The anticipated support band of 22750-22800 worked out well. From a short-term perspective, a bottom appears to be in place. Further bearish bets should be avoided as long as the Nifty holds above the 22,800 level on a closing basis. On the upside, the 23,235 level will likely act as a key resistance in the near term.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryNifty's 22800 Level - A Make-or-Break Point for BullsUS stock markets will remain closed on Monday for President's Day 2025, marking the birth anniversary of the first US President, George Washington. Asia share markets are also becalmed by a Wall Street holiday on Monday.The Dow Jones stayed close to its all-time high, just one percent below its peak. The dollar nursed losses suffered after a weak U.S. retail sales report rekindled wagers for two rate cuts this year.Easing inflation has opened the door for the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin an anticipated brief series of interest rate cuts, starting with a quarter-point reduction to 4.10% on Tuesday. In Japanese data, both GDP and CPI are expected to surprise on the upside.The minutes of the Fed's last meeting are due on Wednesday and should offer some detail about the outlook for further easing. At least six Fed officials are due to speak this week. The Indian equity markets continue to exhibit weakness, trading below critical short-term moving averages amid mounting pressure. Last week witnessed significant selling pressure in the mid-cap and small-cap segments, with several stocks experiencing sharp corrections. The global markets are scaling to new all-time highs, which could support Indian markets in limiting the downside from here. While Indian market breadth remains subdued, technical indicators are fast approaching an oversold territory, suggesting a potential reversal. The percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average in the NSE500 universe has fallen to 14%. Historically, significant downtrends have formed bottoms near such levels. The benchmark Nifty index has shown resilience around the crucial 22,800 mark, managing to stage minor rebounds from this support level on multiple occasions. If the index defends the 22,800 level, it could trigger short covering, potentially leading to a technical bounce. A decisive move below the 22750-22800 zone could trigger further selling, potentially pushing the index toward its next support level at 22460.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryIndian Market Sentiment Expected to Improve TodayThe S&P 500 ended higher on Thursday, lifted by gains in Nvidia, Apple and Tesla, after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a roadmap for charging reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners.Stocks also gained after data showed U.S. producer prices increased in January. Key elements in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a measure closely tracked by the U.S. Federal Reserve, were benign.Initial jobless claims dropped to 213,000 this past week, slightly below estimates of 215,000 and the weekly average for this year of 214,000. Continuing jobless claims, which reflect the number of people currently receiving unemployment benefits, declined to 1.85 million, below forecasts for 1.88 million. These readings, combined with other recent data, indicate that the US labour market remains healthy.Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond moved sharply lower following the report, suggesting investors were growing more confident about inflation cooling.In Global markets, Europe benchmark index STOXX Europe 600 reached a new all-time high on the potential for Ukraine peace talks.In the commodity space, gold traded higher, while WTI oil was little changed.Prime Minister Narendra Modi's White House visit proved more constructive than anticipated. During the summit, PM Modi and President Trump set an ambitious goal to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. However, market sentiment remains fragile amid escalating trade tensions, particularly following President Trump's announcement of planned reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose duties on U.S. imports. As part of efforts to address the trade imbalance, India has committed to increasing its imports of U.S. oil and gas to reduce the deficit between the two nations.The Nifty extended its downward trajectory for the seventh consecutive session yesterday, marking its most extended decline since November. The index's persistent slump reflects mounting concerns over escalating trade tensions, earnings slowdowns, and sustained foreign portfolio outflows. Nifty is trading below its 5, 11, and 20-day exponential moving averages, suggesting continued weakness in the short term. The index faced resistance near its 5-day EMA before declining sharply to register its lowest close of the month. The 23,235 level will likely serve as immediate resistance, while 22,800 is likely to act as a crucial support level to monitor in the coming session.In the first sign of recovery, FPIs started covering their short positions in the derivative markets, and that trend should be accentuated further today. Indian markets are likely to open higher today on the back of positive cues from US and European markets.

Morning Market CommentaryGlobal Markets Poised to Surge Amid Fresh Hopes for Ukraine Peace ProspectsU.S. stocks finished mixed on Wednesday after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed higher-than-expected inflation. It triggered an aggressive selloff of Treasurys and undermined the Federal Reserve's ability to keep cutting interest rates.The consumer price index (CPI)ticked up to an annualized rate of 3.0% in January, surpassing expectations of a steady 2.9%. Energy prices were a significant factor in the increase, rising 1.1% month-over-month.Markets are now pricing one Fed rate cut this year, potentially in October or December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered his semi-annual testimony to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Tuesday, reiterating that the Fed can be patient in cutting interest rates and remains committed to bringing inflation down.During their phone calls, Donald Trump spoke separately to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Both of them expressed a desire for peace. Trump instructed top U.S. officials to initiate talks to end the war in Ukraine.Asian and European stock futures rallied on optimism over the prospects of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Oil prices dropped, having been down more than 2% overnight. Wall Street staged a late rally to end the day mixed.The Nifty extended its downward trend for the sixth consecutive session yesterday, but the day's trading pattern revealed significant underlying strength.Nifty formed a double bottom around 22,800 before bouncing back to close above the psychologically important 23,000 mark. Looking ahead, the 5-day EMA at 23,255 presents immediate resistance, while the 22,800 level serves as a crucial support zone to monitor in the coming sessions.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryModest Recovery in Early Trade After Five-Session DeclineWall Street's main indexes ended mixed on Tuesday as gains in Coca-Cola and Apple offset losses in Tesla, while investors parsed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's latest comments. The U.S. central bank is in no rush to cut its short-term interest rate again, given the economy is "strong overall", with low unemployment and inflation still above the Fed's 2% target.Coca-Cola advanced 4.7% after the beverage maker beat fourth-quarter revenue estimates, helped by higher prices and resilient demand for its sodas and juices.Tesla tumbled 6.3% a day after a consortium led by CEO Elon Musk offered $97 billion to buy the non-profit that controls artificial intelligence start-up OpenAI. Consumer staples and energy were among the top-performing sectors of the S&P 500, with energy receiving a boost from higher oil pricesDeep uncertainty about President Donald Trump's announcement on Monday of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and what lies next in the brewing global trade war may also keep investors on the defensive.With roughly 65% of the companies in the S&P 500 announcing fourth-quarter results, earnings are on pace to grow by approximately 16% year-over-year.Asian markets will be looking to claw back Tuesday's broad losses. Still, they will face headwinds from a sluggish performance on Wall Street, higher U.S. bond yields, and persistent nervousness around escalating global trade tensions.Global index provider has announced changes to its indices as part of the February 2025 review, with adjustments set to take effect after market close on February 28. Among the top weight increases in the Indexes, IndusInd Bank Ltd., Zomato Ltd., Varun Beverages Ltd., Mankind Pharma Ltd., Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd., Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd., PB Fintech Ltd., Adani Enterprises Ltd., and Voltas Ltd. joined Hyundai India in the top ten.Conversely, the most significant weight decreases were seen in Adani Green Energy Ltd., Reliance Industries Ltd., HDFC Bank Ltd., Infosys Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd., Bharti Airtel Ltd., Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., Larsen & Toubro Ltd., and Axis Bank Ltd.Unsubstantiated fears regarding higher tax rates on financial securities due to the implementation of the New Income Tax Bill also triggered panic selling among weak market participants. Some of the selling can be linked to margin calls on funded positions.India's January inflation, December industrial production, and Japan's investing giant Softbank Q3 results will set the tone for investors today.*The short-term trend remains weak as Nifty is below its 5, 11, and 20 DEMA. The previous support of 23222 is likely to serve as near-term resistance, while immediate support is set at 22976, followed by 22800 levels.Indices will recover in early trade after a five-session rout that has rattled investor confidence. However, the sustainability of this nascent rebound remains contingent upon clarity emerging from the proposed income tax act and the outcome of discussions between Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump.