Stock Talking

Jeffrey Kamys returns to discuss Q1 earnings, with updates on DKNG, PENN, MGM, BALY and more. We dive into Bally's potential tender offer after rejecting Standard Chartered's $38 per share and the company's transition to being more software-oriented after acquiring Gamesys. Jeffrey overviews opportunities in sports gambling content provider Gambling.com (GAMB) and Australian gambling conglomerate Tabcorp, including a potential divestiture of its lottery business in the near-term. Jeffrey walks through whether we could see sports betting becoming legal in California by Q1 2023.   Check out the IBET ETF here https://www.inherentwealthfund.com/etf/ibet and Jeffrey's website here https://www.jeffreykamys.com

My guest today is Jeffrey Kamys, Chief Investment and Portfolio Manager at Baseline Investments and Inherent Wealth Fund, where he manages the iBET Sports Betting & Gaming ETF (IBET). Jeffrey walks through the current landscape in sports betting in the US today and what the path to legalization looks like. I get Jeffrey's takes on disparities in valuations in sports gambling, including discounts in European companies (FLTR), brick and mortar casinos (BYD) and gaming picks-and-shovels names (ex. SGMS, EVO). Jeffrey discusses how customer acquisition costs and strategies to acquire growth are changing, and why sports gambling as a whole can grow at a 15-20% CAGR with operating leverage on top of that. I get Jeffrey's thoughts on companies who haven't traditionally played in sports betting and entertainment who will be heavily involved in the years to come, including AMZN, AAPL and DIS. This conversation really got me thinking on how strong the tailwinds might be for companies that benefit from legalization and growing interest in betting on sports. I highly recommend checking out IBET if you're interested in gaining exposure to the space with an active manager and following Jeffrey's coverage: - IBET ETF - https://www.inherentwealthfund.com/ - Jeffrey's podcast, blog and more - https://www.jeffreykamys.com/

My guest today is J Mintzmyer, Head of Research at Value Investor's Edge and my favorite follow on all things shipping. J discusses where he thinks we are in the shipping cycle and how he gauges risk / reward based on company-specific and industry-specific factors. J uses this risk / reward framework to talk through International Seaways (INSF), Scorpio Tankers (STNG), Danaos (DAC) and more. I get J's thoughts on opportunities in container leasing and why he thinks Textainer (TGH) has higher upside than Triton (TRTN). We close by discussing one of J's newer positions - Diamondback Energy (FANG) - and how the company is approaching capital allocation. I thought this was an awesome conversation and came away excited to do more research on shipping.   I highly recommend following J on Twitter and subscribing to Value Investor's Edge: - J's Twitter - https://twitter.com/mintzmyer - Value Investor's Edge - mintzmyer.com

My guest today is Twebs (https://twitter.com/twebs). Twebs writes The Asymmetry Infantry (https://twebs.substack.com/) and is host of Single Stock Spaces (RSS feed: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/487271/private/05bd0330-8d56-4df0-8ad3-9051293c432a.rss). He spent 15+ years on the buy side and chats with me on lessons learned there, specifically on what good research looks like. We discuss Twebs' Double Dog Index (https://twebs.substack.com/p/introducing-the-double-dog-index) and important differences around capital allocation among the names ( $X v. $STLC v. $ARCH ). Twebs gives an update on $AMPY and how the risk/reward has improved since October (check out his original overview of Amplify here https://twebs.substack.com/p/ampy). We close out talking about a formative investing experience that shows the value of identifying opportunities with non-economic sellers, limited downside and high upside.

Nick Widmer discusses how NFTs will figure greatly into our relationship with products and services. We talk about LinksDAO and other projects where NFTs could represent value beyond the aesthetic and unlock physical goods and services in the future. Nick discusses why the current ecosystem is the way it is, including the incentives of influencers, advertisers and exchanges, and how that ecosystem could change in the future. I highly recommend subscribing to Nick's Substack (https://nickwidmer.substack.com/) and LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholaswidmer/) for more great takes on this subject.

The Impervious is back to talk all things 2022 outlook! We exchange takes on inflation, growth v. value, uranium, SPACs, Chinese stocks, US cannabis and more.

Diligent Dollar (https://diligent-dollar.com/) and I discuss his Value Trap Coffee Can Portfolio (VTCCP). We discuss the five names currently in VTCCP ($STRT, $ALSN, $AXL, $ANF and $CATO) and why opportunities exist specifically in auto suppliers and retail. Diligent also pitches Bath and Bodyworks ($BBWI) and the potential for the stock to be a compounder with strong organic growth and buybacks. We close out with some updates on Triton ($TRTN), 180 Degree Capital Corp. ($TURN) and National CineMedia ($NCMI).

"If we talk in two years, I'll be shocked if Nike isn't issuing NFTs." - Nick Widmer Nick Widmer (https://nickwidmer.substack.com/, https://twitter.com/nfwidmer) returns to the show to talk about non-fungible tokens, Web3 and the next generation of brand building. Nick explains to me why NFTs are a logical vehicle for companies to use to build their brands. I walked away from this conversation with a much better understanding of NFT originators and buyers. Nick has a fascinating perspective and background; I highly recommend this episode! Show notes links: - Nick's article on NFTs (subscribe to his Substack - it's excellent) - https://nickwidmer.substack.com/p/nftsareworthunderstanding -Jack Butcher's Twitter thread on getting started with understanding Web3 and NFTs https://twitter.com/jackbutcher/status/1435299942235615236 - Not Boring (Packy McCormick) newsletter - https://www.notboring.co/

I explain why I think the stock market puck is going to the movie theater industry and how turbo poker tournaments are my mental model for market cycles. I review Cinemark's 2021 quarterly earnings call and why CEO Mark Zoradi's comments demonstrate that 2H 2021 and 2022 are going to be an amazing time for the box office.   Book recommendations: - The Biggest Bluff, Maria Konnikova https://www.amazon.com/dp/B082ZQYGSL/ - Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions-ebook/dp/B074DG9LQF  

I discuss why I'm a big fan of Apple's buyback strategy and think buybacks are a better use of capital than acquisitions, any capex they could do, debt paydown, keeping the cash or raising the dividend. Based on the company's capital allocation strategy and earnings growth, Apple still is a great buy and one of my top holdings. Some links I mention in the show: - Berkshire 2020 letter - https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2020ltr.pdf - Blog post on capital light compounders by Connor Leonard (thank you Diligent Dollar for recommending) - https://sabercapitalmgt.com/reinvestment-moat-follow-up-capital-light-compounders/ 

The Impervious returns to swap takes on gold + gold miners, Tesla + FAANG upcoming earnings, inflation v. deflation, the crypto lending market and QQQ's year of outperformance versus Berkshire Hathaway.

Diligent Dollar is back to explain how he finds opportunities in levered companies that scare away most equity investors. Diligent talks through several examples including Platform Specialty Products (now Element Solutions) to highlight scenarios where debt to EBITDA multiples don't tell the whole story. We discuss Diligent's Civeo ($CVEO) thesis (lodging and hospitality for mining) and dive into the company's de-leveraging story, potential to produce a 25%+ FCF yield and why CVEO could do well independent of commodity price movement. Diligent shares his experience trying to acquire a marina, his thoughts on the structural disadvantages of REITs, tailwinds for manufactured housing (Cavco - $CVCO, Skyline - $SKY) despite NIMBY concerns and more. I really enjoyed this conversation and highly recommend subscribing to the Diligent Dollar blog (https://diligent-dollar.com).

Phil Andrews of Cathie's Ark returns for an awesome discussion on ARK and how the Cathie's Ark website and trading floor provide valuable data and commentary to the ARK community. Phil responds to the ARK bears and debunks some popular narratives on ARK’s exposure to a sell-off triggered by illiquidity. We discuss the best ARK portfolio holdings to buy during drawdowns and why Phil believes $ARKG is the ETF most well situated to thrive as ARK AUM grows. I ask Phil about the bull case for $TDOC, $BLI and a number of other names. Phil reviews new and upcoming features for the Cathie's Ark website (filters, timelines and plans for upcoming FDA release data). I get Phil’s reactions to ARK’s new positions in $DKNG and $TWTR.  We close with some questions from Twitter and Cathie’s Ark’s Trading Floor, including Phil’s takes on $NNDM, $BNGO, $PACB and dollar-cost averaging. Cathie's Ark (https://cathiesark.com/) has been an indispensable resource for me as an investor in $ARKK and I highly recommend checking out the website, joining the Trading Floor community and signing up for email notifications (https://cathiesark.com/daily-trade-email).

The Impervious and I come together to talk about the market’s new all-time highs and the crush in implied volatility. For once, we both agree energy is well positioned to benefit from technical (potential short squeeze, high amount of options traded) and fundamental (supply constrained, demand growing) factors. Sean talks about opportunities in uranium, implied volatility, gold miners and more. I discuss recent changes in my own portfolio where the theme was sell low quality businesses and buy more of high quality businesses.

GameStop! The Impervious and I take stock of extreme volatility in $GME, $AMC and other favorites of the WSB crowd. How long could this phenomenon last? Sean crafts a generalized strategy for trading single digit price stocks with condensed option chains and gives recommendations for $GNUS, $XSPA and $AG.

I bought both Nintendo (NTDOY) and National CineMedia (NCMI) this week and use this podcast to explain my thinking. I preview Nintendo's earnings ahead of its February 1st Q3 release and discuss why I think growth expectations are too low. Next, I react to the Wall Street Journal's recent article on National CineMedia and the revelation they've engaged lawyers to work with senior lenders. Should NCMI equity holders be concerned about the debt?

The Impervious and I review our best and worst trades of 2020 and make bold predictions for 2021.

My guest today is Phil Andrews, the creator of Cathie’s Ark (cathiesark.com). I use Cathie’s Ark almost daily to source investing ideas by looking at trade data from the ARK Invest ETFs. Phil has done an amazing job making this data understandable and actionable. Phil gives the backstory behind Cathie's Ark and the underlying sources of data for the website. He explains the many reasons for changing fund compositions in ARKK, ARKW, ARKG, ARKF, including forced buying and selling of equities due to buys and sells of the ETF shares, potential limits around how much of public companies Cathie Wood and team are willing to own and risk limits ARK observes. Phil overviews the hidden risk in how buying or selling of ARK ETF shares can compound up moves or drawdowns. I ask Phil about recent trends in the ARK ETFs and he reviews increases in TDOC across the funds (250%+ increase in ARKK in 2 months), selling out of ILMN after a questionable acquisition and more. Phil dives deep on genomics and the implications of AlphaFold on Google, which is now an ARKG holding. We review the top holdings in his PA (TSLA, OPEN, Bitcoin) and how it has been influenced by ARK. Phil walks through some of the many features on Cathie’s Ark, including how to review portfolio trends, contributions over specific time periods to ETF returns, tracing a stock’s growth or decline in ARK ETFs, the Trading Floor and more. Importantly, Phil highlights why it’s important to him that Cathie’s Ark will always be free and the benefits of knowledge and transparency being spread on the internet. This conversation was awesome and I’m excited to dig into many of the names Phil talked about. I strongly recommend checking out https://cathiesark.com, the trading floor at http://tradingfloor.cathiesark.com and the Cathie’s Ark Twitter feed at https://twitter.com/cathiesark for more insights on the ARK Investing ETFs.

Sean and I talk about the potential implications of the SolarWinds breach and how we are in the early innings of this developing story. We react to the in-podcast announcement of Congress agreeing to a $900 billion stimulus package and debate to what extent the market has priced in fiscal action. The Impervious breaks down friends of the pod $CRWD, $NET, $SDC and the banks. We also reflect on $TSLA's stunning $50 billion market cap move on Friday for a company with a $50 billion market cap only a few years ago.

Chris Seifel of Seifel Capital Management comes on to talk free cash flow in high growth companies, shortcomings in using P/S multiples, the CANSLIM method, why he is wary of investing in small caps, CrowdStrike’s incredible growth runway and artificial intelligence. Chris’s depth and breadth of knowledge on cyber security and AI - as well as how these opportunities distill down to specific companies and free cash flow growth - made this interview an awesome learning opportunity for me. We go deep on Chris’s process and how he evaluates his holdings during quarterly earnings and drawdowns. Chris overviews his investment thesis for CRWD (including updates on the Preempt acquisition and new Zero Trust initiatives) and a range of opportunities in AI, including ASML, TSM and MU. I highly recommend listening to this whole interview, but Chris’s explanation of ASML and their use of photolithography blew me away. His Twitter and newsletter are incredible resources I keep returning to - check out https://twitter.com/SeifelCapital and https://seifelcapital.com .