Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

Bitcoin dropped to $106K after a sudden Friday sell-off, triggering panic across crypto markets—but Swan’s team remained calm, stressing the long-term thesis is unchanged.John Haar and Isaiah noted that Bitcoin fell just 10% while altcoins crashed 50–90%, underscoring Bitcoin’s liquidity and resilience.The team compared the pullback to past cycles, arguing this is not a cycle top but typical mid-bull market volatility.Discussion on Fed Chair Powell signaling an end to QT and potential rate cuts—seen as a tailwind for Bitcoin as monetary easing returns.John highlighted data showing Bitcoin rose 750% during the Fed’s tightening cycle, disproving the myth that Bitcoin only thrives under easy money.A deep dive into the Fed’s balance sheet showed that long-dated Treasury holdings have never decreased since 2008, signaling systemic dependence on debt monetization.Chamath Palihapitiya’s claim that quantum computing could break Bitcoin in 2–5 years was debunked—experts and developers agree it’s decades away and Bitcoin can adapt.The team explored how AI could reshape the economy, potentially displacing workers and pushing governments toward UBI—but also creating new industries and efficiencies.Brady and John debated whether UBI could be socially beneficial or harmful; both agreed Bitcoin offers protection in any fiat debasement scenario.The show wrapped with reactions to Larry Fink’s 60 Minutes appearance comparing Bitcoin to gold and Elon Musk’s recent positive Bitcoin comments. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

The team jokes about “Bitcoin being dead again” after Trump’s new tariff threats against China tanked markets and briefly pulled Bitcoin to $117K.They analyze Trump’s tariff negotiation style, calling it political theater and a dip-buying opportunity for “active tariff dip buyers.”Discussion on Core V30 debates—Bitcoiners fighting among themselves as a “bear market signal,” contrasting with the historic block size wars.VJ Boyapati’s chart shows long consolidation phases in this cycle—evidence of healthier, institutional-driven adoption rather than retail mania.Gold hits $4,000/oz, outperforming U.S. stocks; the hosts link gold’s run to the global debasement trade and rising mainstream awareness of sound money.John Haar highlights that despite 40-year-high inflation, global debt-to-GDP barely fell, reinforcing the inevitability of fiscal dominance and currency debasement.Paul Tudor Jones reaffirms Bitcoin as the “fastest horse,” signaling institutional confidence alongside gold.Morgan Stanley opens Bitcoin access to wealth clients—another milestone in mainstream financial adoption.Square launches zero-fee Bitcoin payment integration for merchants, advancing Bitcoin’s medium-of-exchange use case.Discussion closes on Lightning yield experiments (8–9% APY) and Luxembourg’s sovereign Bitcoin purchase, showcasing Bitcoin’s expanding financial utility and global reach. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Bitcoin kicks off October pressing against all-time highs near $123,900, setting an exciting tone for Q4Recap of BTC in DC at the Kennedy Center, featuring Michael Saylor, Cynthia Lummis, Adam Back, Pierre Rochard, Jeff Booth, Samson Mow, and many moreKey focus on academia’s role in Bitcoin adoption, with examples from Cornell and GW University partnershipsPubKey DC discussed as a future hub for staffers, policymakers, and Bitcoiners in WashingtonMacro landscape: global rate cuts (168 so far this year), stimulus check proposals, stagflation concerns, and every major US index hitting all-time highs alongside Bitcoin“The Debasement Trade”: JP Morgan recognizes the growing move into Bitcoin and gold as hedges against deficits, fiat debasement, and Fed credibility concernsUS gold reserves valued at $1.1T highlight the case for a future Bitcoin Strategic Reserve; panelists debate timing, secrecy, and political willDiscussion on lower Bitcoin volatility as financialization grows, reducing chances of another 80% drawdown and pointing toward steadier climbsDCA vs gold: visualization shows $15K invested since 2020 in Bitcoin would be worth $63K today, highlighting Swan Vault and Swan IRA as easy long-term strategiesDigital Euro and UK digital ID proposals raise serious concerns over freedom and financial control, contrasted with Bitcoin’s censorship resistance and self-sovereignty Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Ben and Jeff break down Strive’s reverse merger and rapid acquisition of Similar Scientific—completed in just four days.The deal strengthens balance sheet credit quality, improves leverage capacity, and positions the combined entity for perpetual preferred securities.Connection to Vivek Ramaswamy’s background in healthcare and politics creates potential synergies for future spin-offs.Bitcoin Treasury Company sector has faced a steep correction, but consolidation may create stronger, scalable firms.Ben emphasizes scale—5,000+ BTC balance sheets—as key for accessing institutional preferred markets.Treasury companies are experimenting with innovative financing structures (ATM issuance, convertible bonds, perpetual preferreds).Discussion on investor psychology: short-termism in equities vs. the long-term thesis of Bitcoin.Jeff presents historical math showing 4-year holding periods in Bitcoin and MicroStrategy always produced positive returns.Broader economic commentary: mispriced bond risk, housing affordability crisis, and wealth inequality.Hosts stress that Bitcoin itself should remain the foundation of portfolios, with treasury companies and credit products as higher-risk layers. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Fed cut 25 bps; panel debates politics creeping into policy and what it means for risk assetsTrump nominee Stephen Miran and the floated “third mandate” to “moderate long-term rates” seen as soft yield-curve controlCPI data quality questioned: imputation/estimates are rising while lived costs outpace headline CPIHousing at peak unaffordability; searches for mortgage help, rent trouble, and credit-card stress are surgingLabor mixed: manufacturing jobs slipping; job openings back near 2019 while S&P hovers near ATHsMoody’s recession risk ~48%—yet hosts note policymakers rarely tolerate prolonged market drawdownsPanel takeaway: despite macro cracks, being long scarce/risk assets (Bitcoin, equities, real estate, gold) generally wins vs. timing downturnsBoomers’ home-equity windfall vs. younger generations sparks debate on “corrective” policies/UBI and the role of Bitcoin in restoring fairnessBitcoin treasury companies: PIPE unlock overhangs (e.g., Sequans, Nakamoto) create churn, but industry likely broadens beyond MSTRCory Klippsten’s “tranching” frame: packaging Bitcoin exposure into debt/equity slices is pulling new capital into BTC and will scale Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

The panel opened with reflections on the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk and other recent violent events, framing them through the lens of The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe.Discussion on how history moves in ~80–100 year cycles of crisis and renewal, with Bitcoin and decentralized protocols potentially forming the backbone of the next institutional order.John emphasized perspective, comparing today’s turmoil with past upheavals (1960s, 1970s, World Wars), and highlighted the role of media saturation in shaping perceptions.Panelists praised Kirk’s willingness to debate respectfully, lamenting the erosion of open dialogue in society.Shifted to macro: China’s gold accumulation as a hedge against dollar hegemony, interpreted as part of a global move toward neutral reserve assets—gold today, Bitcoin tomorrow.Deep dive into U.S. financial surveillance: the inefficiencies of the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and threats of extending the Patriot Act to digital assets. Panelists argued KYC/AML laws are largely ineffective at stopping crime but very effective at surveilling citizens.Highlighted the DOJ’s case against Samourai Wallet as an example of U.S. hostility toward Bitcoin privacy tools.Covered this week’s major supply-chain attack on NPM packages, noting minimal impact but using it as a PSA: always verify addresses on hardware wallets and beware phishing scams.Tether launched a U.S.-regulated stablecoin (USAT). The panel explored how this intersects with the Genius Act, which would require stablecoin reserves to be in U.S. Treasuries, effectively creating a new forced buyer of U.S. debt.Quick hits: MicroStrategy denied S&P 500 inclusion (for now), BLS quietly revised U.S. job numbers down by 900k, Gemini goes public, and Michael Saylor positions MicroStrategy as a “Bitcoin capital markets” play. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

 Global long-yield rise vs. easing cycles; fiscal dominance and debt saturationFed cuts likely in September; inflation still >2%Gold performance and the “trust migration” from fiat assetsHarvard endowment signal; Treasury long-bond buybacks funded by billsDalio’s “debt-induced heart attack” timelineBitcoin seasonality and volatility compression; SOV → MoE arcCorporate BTC treasuries surpass 1M BTC; possible MSTR S&P 500 inclusionARC + Lightning progress; Bitcoin culture (“Killing Satoshi”)  Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Whales & Long-Term Holders Selling: Profit-taking by OG wallets is redistributing supply. Many are diversifying custody or rotating some BTC into ETFs for margin/borrowing flexibility.Seasonality Matters: Bitcoin weakness in August/September is common; thin liquidity + vacation season amplify dips.ETFs as Financial Rails: Institutions and wealthy holders prefer ETFs for cheaper margin rates compared to Bitcoin-backed loans.Retail vs OG Perspective: Whale trims feel like “dumping” to retail but are natural in Bitcoin’s monetization process.Global Reserves Shift: For the first time since the 1990s, central banks hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries—de-dollarization in motion.Fed Politicization: The fight over Gov. Lisa Cook shows growing political pressure on the Fed under fiscal dominance.Fee FUD Dismissed: Low on-chain fees ≠ security crisis. Dynamic fee markets ensure resilience.Store of Value vs Medium of Exchange: False dichotomy—Bitcoin functions as both, but its SoV role dominates today.Bitwise Framework: 2035 scenarios debated: bear $88K, base $1.3M, bull ~$3M. Panel skeptical of the low-end case.Specter Association Launch: Swan transfers Specter to a new Swiss nonprofit. Yan Pritzker joins the board; roadmap now fully community-driven. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Lighthearted banter to kick things off—coffee, creatine, and mushroom elixirs fueling the Swan crewMarket focus: Jerome Powell signals possible September Fed rate cut, sparking a sharp Bitcoin rally to $117K+Discussion on short-term market sentiment vs long-term conviction: zoom out, stay focused on fundamentalsTechnical analysis spotlight: Bitcoin’s 200-day SMA crosses $100K for the first time, historically a bullish long-term signalDebate over whether Bitcoin will continue classic boom–bust cycles or “grind boringly” upward due to ETF + institutional flowsBitcoin seasonality chart reviewed: September historically weak, but October and November deliver strong gains (“Uptober”)MicroStrategy revises MNAV guidance on ATM issuance—sparks short-term drama but long-term thesis remains unchangedDebate around Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s anti-Bitcoin remarks (“$100 not $100K”) dismissed as stale FUDBIS proposal to blacklist “non-KYC tainted coins” sparks discussion on financial surveillance and freedomLighter notes: Bitcoin cameo in South Park, Norwegian sovereign wealth fund adds MSTR/MetaPlanet exposure, Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong calls for $1M BTC by 2030 Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Anniversary reflections: 54 years since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and 5 years since MicroStrategy announced its first Bitcoin purchaseGlobal inflation since 1971: No country has averaged <2% inflation, highlighting why Bitcoin matters as a hedge against fiat debasementNixon’s 1971 speech revisited — false promises of “temporary” suspension and dollar “stability” contrasted with 89% dollar debasement sinceU.S. debt and deficits: July 2025 saw $338B in receipts vs. $630B in spending, underscoring the inevitability of growing debt burdensDeep dive: What’s Bitcoin’s greatest threat? Panel discussed regulation, quantum computing, mining centralization, custodian failure, and social consensus challengesRate cuts incoming? Debate around September Fed meeting, with markets pricing an 85% chance of a cut despite hotter CPI printsTreasury Reserve: Treasury Secretary Bestyn flip-flops on whether the U.S. will acquire more Bitcoin, fueling speculation about policy directionBitcoin treasury companies: Pubcos now hold 951,000 BTC; Sequans enters the top-25 list with >3,000 BTC in partnership with SwanMicroStrategy “Stretch” (STRC): Explained as a variable coupon preferred equity designed to tap bond-like capital pools, offering ~9% returnsQuick hits: Bitcoin obituary count at all-time lows, Google Play walks back non-custodial wallet ban, UK pushes bizarre “delete emails to save water” advice, and James Chanos misunderstands network effects Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

 Major Policy Shift: President Trump signs an executive order directing the Department of Labor to reexamine fiduciary guidance, opening the door for Bitcoin and crypto investments in 401(k) retirement plans — a $9 trillion market.Implementation Timeline: Panel agrees it’s medium-to-long-term bullish but may take 1–2 years before Bitcoin ETFs appear broadly in 401(k) offerings due to provider-by-provider approval.Bitcoin vs. Crypto: Hosts stress ongoing need to educate the public on why Bitcoin is different from other cryptocurrencies, as broader “crypto” inclusion could expose investors to higher-risk assets.Regulatory Clarity: Michael Saylor and others call for clearer frameworks to classify assets, separating Bitcoin from altcoins to prevent harmful policy spillover.FED Gold Revaluation Paper: Federal Reserve explores revaluing gold reserves (currently marked at $42/oz) to unlock budget-neutral spending capacity — potentially tied to creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.Hidden Inflation Signal: Revaluing gold to current market prices (~$3,500/oz) would implicitly acknowledge an 8%+ annual inflation rate since the gold peg was abandoned.Gold Tariffs & Bitcoin Advantage: Temporary headlines about potential U.S. gold import tariffs spark discussion; Saylor on Bloomberg notes Bitcoin’s weightless, borderless nature makes it immune to tariffs.Volatility Compression: Since Bitcoin ETFs launched, 90-day rolling volatility has dropped below 40 — less than 2× gold’s — suggesting a structurally different, steadier bull market.Cycle Danger Zone: On-chain analyst Checkmate highlights we’re within 30 days of the historical post-halving blow-off top window; debate over whether this cycle breaks the four-year pattern.Central Banking & Money Creation: Clip from Richard Werner explaining commercial banks’ ability to create money from nothing sparks discussion on fiat fragility, war financing, and the importance of Bitcoin as sound money.  Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

MicroStrategy’s new Stretch preferred equity product raised $2.5B—5x oversubscribed—marking the largest U.S. equity IPO in 2025 so farStretch offers a 9% yield, targeting fixed-income investors, and positions MicroStrategy to tap into trillions in money market capitalDiscussion of the growing trend of Bitcoin Treasury companies, with over 160 firms now holding BTC on their balance sheetsAlex and John caution investors to treat Bitcoin-related equities as high-risk—spot Bitcoin should remain the core holdingRay Dalio now recommends a 15% allocation to Bitcoin or gold, signaling growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as digital goldThe IMF’s energy FUD was debunked, with Daniel Batten and Lynn Alden praised for educating on Bitcoin’s use of stranded/wasted energyU.S. government reaffirms the right to self-custody Bitcoin; however, progress on establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve remains stalledCoinbase quietly added 2,500 BTC in Q2—its largest quarterly accumulation yet—but is still criticized for its crypto-first strategyGalaxy Digital’s $9B sale of 80K BTC had limited impact, showing Bitcoin’s market depth and growing institutional demandTucker Carlson’s discussion of central banks funding perpetual war is a sign Bitcoin-aligned ideas are entering mainstream discourse Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

The Swan team humorously opened by mocking government spending inefficiency, referencing the Fed’s $3.1 billion office renovationDiscussed the unusual dynamic between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, including Trump's public pressure for rate cuts and stimulusAnalyzed the Fed Funds futures curve and how market expectations for rate cuts through 2026 are priced in via CME dataExplored the Galaxy Digital sale of 70,000 BTC from a 2011 whale, highlighting Bitcoin's strong liquidity and resilience to heavy selling pressureJohn Haar explained MicroStrategy’s new $2.5 billion “Stretch” preferred stock, comparing it to a short-duration yield instrument with monthly payoutsDebated fiat’s distortion of housing affordability and generational economic inequality, referencing wtfhappenedin1971.com and historical gold/minimum wage statsReviewed BlackRock’s recent de-dollarization graphic, which shows central banks increasing gold reserves as USD dominance declinesQ and Isaiah shared stories from the Swan Private team, focusing on estate planning and guiding high-net-worth clients in building generational Bitcoin wealthDiscussed stimulus check rumors from Trump and why another round could signal further monetary debasement — and Bitcoin buying opportunitiesClosed with a breakdown of how Swan Private supports clients with education, planning, and personal relationships built around a Bitcoin standard Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Bitcoin hits another all-time high (ATH) at $123K amid relentless demand and tightening supplyHistoric legislative wins in the U.S.: CBDC ban codified into law; $600 de minimis tax exemption for Bitcoin spending under discussionBitcoin enters the White House press room as Bitcoin Magazine asks key policy questionsAdam Back and Blockstream in a $4B SPAC deal with Cantor Fitzgerald to create a Bitcoin treasury operationMicroStrategy now holds 3% of all Bitcoin, pioneering “speculative attack” borrowing at ultra-low interest ratesDebate on whether Bitcoin’s cycles are maturing: lower volatility and fewer sharp drawdowns this cycleRising Bitcoin treasury companies seen as a driver for long-term price stability and institutionalizationBitcoin dominance dips slightly as ETH and altcoins see a bounce, but hosts reinforce “Bitcoin, not crypto” thesisTrump administration exploring 401(k) access to crypto, further boosting institutional access to BitcoinPro tips for HODLers: take self-custody, think in 5+ year timeframes, and ignore short-term volatility Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Bitcoin at All-Time Highs: The crew celebrates Bitcoin’s new all-time highs around $118K and discusses whether we’re due for a 10% pullback. Predictions ranged from a short-term dip at $119K to price discovery pushing beyond $130K.Institutional Adoption & Bitcoin Treasuries:Discussion on the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies like Sequans (guided by Swan) and how they differ in execution, strategy, and impact.The panel emphasizes that these companies aren’t meant for retail speculation but as vehicles for institutions to gain Bitcoin exposure.“Speculative attack at scale” is driving corporate demand for Bitcoin.Quiet Retail Cycle: Despite price highs, retail interest remains muted, with Google Trends for “Bitcoin” near 2023 levels. The hosts see this as a bullish signal, suggesting institutional accumulation is driving the market.Macro Environment:Trump’s renewed market cheerleading and calls for lower interest rates.Powell’s Fed likely to hold steady this month, with potential cuts later in the year.The panel sees a “growth at all costs” fiscal pivot favoring risk assets.Germany’s Blunder: Germany’s sale of 50K BTC at ~$58K now looks like a historic mistake.Elon Musk & Bitcoin: Musk tweets “Fiat is hopeless,” fueling speculation about his future engagement with Bitcoin. The hosts warn against “politician and billionaire simping.”14-Year-Old Bitcoin Moves: A 2011 wallet holding 80K BTC (~$8.7B) moved funds to new addresses. Likely for security upgrades, not immediate selling.Swan Private Updates: Swan Private team shares stories about helping clients with Bitcoin wealth management, custody, and estate planning during this bull run. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Bitcoin Price Action: Hovering near $110K, with all-time highs above $112K recently. Discussed global liquidity spikes and the M2 money supply’s correlation with Bitcoin price trends.Macroeconomics:U.S. deficits, debt concerns, and the “Big Beautiful Bill” passing.Ray Dalio’s remarks on the political impossibility of balancing the U.S. budget, echoing the “nothing stops this train” meme.The impact of AI as a deflationary force and its implications for the fiat system.Bitcoin as an Exit Strategy:Personal responsibility in opting out of the fiat system through Bitcoin.The growing necessity for individuals and corporations to store value in Bitcoin.Housing Market & Consumption Economy:Rising home prices due to monetary premium; potential relief through Bitcoin adoption.Bitcoin Treasury Companies:Debate over ethics and sustainability of companies leveraging Bitcoin treasuries.Viewed as inevitable due to regulatory arbitrage; focus on institutional capital rather than retail.Emphasis on responsible management and transparency as key to long-term success. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

In this special episode of Swan Signal Live, the team bids a heartfelt farewell to longtime host Steven Lubka as he steps away from his regular role. Steven reflects on nearly five transformative years at Swan, building Swan Private and helping onboard thousands of high-net-worth individuals into Bitcoin. Emotions run high as the crew reminisces on shared experiences and growth.The discussion then dives into major Bitcoin developments:Bitcoin in Mortgages: The FHFA is reportedly guiding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to recognize Bitcoin as an asset in mortgage underwriting — a shift that could help Bitcoiners qualify more easily without having to sell their holdings.Texas Bitcoin Treasury: Texas becomes the first U.S. state to establish a Bitcoin reserve, allocating $10M in a move widely seen as symbolic but historic.Bitcoin Treasury Companies: The hosts dissect the growing trend of public companies accumulating Bitcoin on their balance sheets, discussing the implications for decentralization, nationalization risks, regulatory arbitrage, and Bitcoin’s long-term monetization.ECB’s Capital Control Signals: A concerning ECB statement hints at encouraging — or even mandating — retail savings be redirected into government-prioritized capital markets.Institutional Adoption: Billionaire hedge fund manager Philippe Laffont’s recent CNBC confession that he regrets not buying Bitcoin sparks a broader conversation about how major allocators are waking up late — but surely — to Bitcoin’s potential.Notable Quote:“This is what it looks like when the world really wakes up to Bitcoin” — Steven Lubka Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Bitcoin continues its historic streak—43 consecutive days closing above $100,000. The Swan Signal crew dives into what this milestone means, including comparisons to Joe DiMaggio’s legendary hitting streak and the waning attention from normies, despite Bitcoin reaching all-time highs.Steven shares insight on why emerging markets and Bitcoin have outperformed, citing Lynn Alden’s early calls. Meanwhile, John highlights how the broader TradFi world is just starting to wake up to Bitcoin’s disruptive potential—despite cringe moments like Brian Armstrong pitching Bitcoin as a “new” idea or Wall Street macro types clumsily suggesting gold/oil-backed stablecoins from geopolitical rivals.Other key points:Bitcoin treasury plays are seeing early-stage momentum, with large speculative capital still sitting on the sidelines.The Genius Act, recently passed, lays the regulatory groundwork for stablecoins—some say this could bolster dollar dominance while indirectly boosting Bitcoin.Stablecoin growth is explained as a stepping stone to Bitcoin, not a competitor.Discussion on whether the classic 4-year Bitcoin cycle is dead, with some leaning toward a slower, more mature “Saylor Cycle” structure.Notable Quotes:“Listen to Bitcoiners. If you just get your 40 hours per week in, you’ll know the answer to all questions in life.”“There’s boredom above $100K… and retail is nowhere to be found.” Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Trump–Elon “Breakup”: The show kicks off with the high-profile political and cultural split between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The hosts speculate whether the split was coordinated to help Elon politically, and explore what it says about naive techno-optimism in politics versus the hard constraints of monetary and fiscal reality.“Nothing Stops This Train” Theme: Echoing Lynn Alden and Luke Gromen, the crew reaffirms that the U.S. fiscal path is locked into deficit and debt expansion. Cutting entitlements or defense is politically impossible, and the only off-ramp might be a miraculous AI-driven productivity boom—which is unlikely to come fast enough.Bitcoin as the Hedge: Elon’s blind spot may be failing to recognize that broken money, not governance inefficiency, is the core problem. The team discusses how Bitcoin fits as the solution—an asset to protect against monetary debasement and fiscal irresponsibility.Bitcoin Treasury Companies: A major segment explores the rise of corporate entities accumulating Bitcoin via debt and equity markets. The panel rebuts concerns that this resembles the ICO mania of 2017, arguing that debt levels are low, strategies are sound, and this trend is still early.AI and The Fourth Turning: Brady and the team expand on the societal impact of rapid technological change, combining AI, institutional decline, and Bitcoin adoption into a transformative fourth turning moment.Swan Private and Client Stories: They wrap with a heartfelt story about helping a client stay convicted during the FTX collapse, illustrating Swan Private’s mission of hands-on, relationship-driven Bitcoin education and wealth preservation. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault. 

Swan Signal Live – Episode Recap (May 17, 2025)Title: “All-Time High Week: Bitcoin Blasts to $111K, LBE Stocks Surge, and the Debt Train Rolls On”Guests: Brady Swenson, Alex Stanczyk, Steven Lubka, John Haar (Swan Private)🚀 Bitcoin Hits $111K – “We Are So Back”After a five-month wait since January, Bitcoin breaks through to a new all-time high of $111K.Optimism surges among the Swan Private team as they reflect on the market momentum and macro backdrop.Traditional markets remain volatile amid tariffs and economic uncertainty, but Bitcoin shines.💼 Meta Planet & The LBE Stock CrazeMeta Planet stock surges over 100% in a day, only to drop ~50% the next.Discussion focuses on the new trend of Leveraged Bitcoin Equity (LBE) stocks:High volatilitySmall floatPotential for massive upside—but also high riskAdvice: Stick with Bitcoin as your core holding; allocate cautiously to LBE stocks if desired, and buy-and-hold long term is still the best strategy.🧠 BTC in DC & The Importance of Policy EngagementUpdate on BTC in DC—Swan is working with George Washington Institute to host a unique policy-focused Bitcoin conference in D.C.Emphasis on realpolitik: “You can hate politics, but policy will impact Bitcoin adoption.”Bitcoin values (sovereignty, decentralization) must be reconciled with pragmatic policymaking to enable mass adoption.📊 Institutional Capital Flows into BitcoinUTXO Management + Bitwise estimate $425 billion in institutional Bitcoin inflows by end of 2026.Segments include public companies, wealth management platforms, sovereign wealth funds, and U.S. states.Public companies like MicroStrategy and Meta Planet leading the charge; next phase could include giants like SoftBank, Strive, and Tether.🏛 U.S. Debt: “Nothing Stops This Train”Moody’s downgrades U.S. debt as deficits grow.Discussion of the “Nothing Stops This Train” meme popularized by Lynn Alden and Luke Gromen.Takeaway: No administration can or will stop the debt spiral.Both parties share blame.Spending is up across the board.Austerity is politically impossible.Elon's recent capitulation tweet: “Radical productivity is the only way out.”💸 M2 Money Supply & Bitcoin CorrelationGlobal M2 money supply continues to rise—historically predictive of Bitcoin price surges.Bitcoin lagged slightly behind M2 but now appears to be tracking it upward again.Macro picture: Expansionary policy = bullish for Bitcoin.🏛 Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR)Texas passes SB 21, establishing the first major U.S. state Bitcoin reserve.Allows the Texas comptroller to buy and manage Bitcoin—a milestone in public Bitcoin adoption.Only assets with $500B+ market cap qualify—i.e., Bitcoin only.🍕 Bitcoin Pizza Day & The Spend/Save DebateCelebrating Laszlo Hanyecz’s historic 10,000 BTC pizza purchase—the first real-world BTC transaction.Debate sparked by Saylor’s tweet that MicroStrategy used USD to buy their Pizza Day pies.Hosts argue in favor of spending and replacing Bitcoin:Drives real-world adoptionSignals demandReinforces Bitcoin’s use case as money🪙 Bitcoin vs Gold ETFsBitcoin ETFs crushing gold ETFs in inflows year-over-year.Despite institutional barriers and late adoption, Bitcoin has seen ~$40B+ inflows vs gold’s ~$1B in year one.Huge signal of growing demand and conviction.🏦 JP Morgan CapitulatesJamie Dimon reverses course: JP Morgan will now allow clients to buy Bitcoin.After years of criticizing BTC, Dimon’s reversal is yet another mainstream surrender to Bitcoin’s inevitability.🔔 Call to Action🔗 Join Swan Private – Work with experts like Alex, John, and Steven to build generational Bitcoin wealth.🎤 BTC in DC – Attend the fall policy summit at the Kennedy Center to help shape Bitcoin’s future in public policy.🎧 Catch Swan Signal Live every Friday at 11 AM PT / 2 PM ET – or subscribe on your favorite podcast app.“Colonizing Mars is easier than stopping the debt train. Buy Bitcoin.” Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.   Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.