Switched On

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act has reshaped the US clean energy landscape. Designed to scale back major US decarbonization programs while promoting fossil fuels, the OBBBA has severely restricted the rollout of solar, wind and energy storage projects while also taking direct aim at electric vehicles. The impact of the new law has been dramatic, but could it have been worse? And what does the whiplash between presidential administrations mean for the feasibility of future investments in the US? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees talks with BloombergNEF’s head of country and policy research, Ethan Zindler, who also previously worked as climate counselor to former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Joining them is senior policy associate for North America Derrick Flakoll, and together they discuss recent BNEF notes including “One Big Bill, Many Impacts for US Energy Economy” and “New US Clean Energy Tax Rules Could Have Been Worse.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Trump Signals Deeper Cuts to Clean-Tech Factory Subsidies - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37297 New US Clean Energy Tax Rules Could Have Been Worse: React - https://www.bnef.com/analyst-reactions/t11xthgp9vd100 Trump Slams the Brakes on US Wind and Solar Growth - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37073 One Big Bill, Many Impacts for US Energy Economy - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37051See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Right now, there are technologies that can pull carbon dioxide directly out of the air. That could be a critical tool in a world where climate change is rampant. Yet to fulfill this carbon removal potential, the sky-high costs of direct air capture need to fall. Today, capturing a metric ton of carbon dioxide with DAC costs around $900 on average, presenting a huge challenge to scaling the technology when there are more affordable alternatives available. So what is the cost outlook for direct air capture, and which technology type offers the most financially viable means of growth? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Brenna Casey, an associate on BNEF’s sustainable materials team, to discuss findings from her report “Out of Thin Air: The Cost of Scaling Direct Air Capture”. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Out of Thin Air: The Cost of Scaling Direct Air Capture - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37093See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Trump administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs are reshaping global trade flows. With the US currently renegotiating its trade positions with traditional partners and rivals alike, the tariffs’ true impact is yet to be fully understood. Even the handful of new deals that have been struck offer little guidance, as they break from the legally binding forms that international trade deals traditionally take and their contents remain largely undisclosed. Assessing the geopolitical landscape has thus become critical for making business decisions. On today’s show, Dana Perkins is joined by Jennifer Welch, chief analyst of Bloomberg’s geoeconomics team, and Antoine Vagneur-Jones, BloombergNEF’s head of trade and supply chains, to delve into the decisions currently shaping global trade. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: US Energy Trade and Tariff Indicators: June 23-July 28 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37117 Trump Tariffs Are Thrashing the US Energy Storage Market - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36483 Solar and Battery Makers Stung by Latest Trump Tariffs - https://www.bnef.com/analyst-reactions/t0h9c7gpqq6j00 To find out more about Bloomberg's geoeconomics research, email us at geoeconomics@bloomberg.netSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cutting industrial emissions has long been one of the most intractable hurdles in the energy transition. That may finally be changing, as a new generation of smart technologies not only paves the way for abating industrial emissions but promises to do so at scale. Four companies emerged victorious in this year’s BloombergNEF Pioneers challenge dedicated to decarbonizing heavy and light industry: AtmosZero, Circ, Rondo and Everdye. On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by guest host Benjamin Kafri, co-chair of BNEF Pioneers, to interview the leaders of these companies. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Climate-Tech Companies to Watch in 2025: BNEF Pioneers - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36311See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With air travel on the rise, the need for cleaner aviation is growing. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) presents the simplest means of decarbonization, but it’s expensive. Aircraft that burn less fuel, engines powered by hydrogen, and even electric air taxis are all potential means of decarbonizing air travel, but none are the silver bullet. So what will it take to green the aviation sector, and what will it cost consumers? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Nikolas Soulopoulos and Takehiro Kawahara, BloombergNEF’s head of commercial transport and aviation specialist respectively, to discuss findings from the report “Aviation Decarbonization Outlook 1H 2025”. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Aviation Decarbonization Outlook 1H 2025 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36893See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Agriculture is responsible for around a third of global emissions. Yet investment in low-carbon means of growing food has stalled. Venture capital and private equity funding has declined by a massive 76% since 2021, ag-tech firms have declared bankruptcy, and large companies are backtracking on their green ambitions. So are there any “good news” stories about the food of the future? And in the current geopolitical climate, can the agriculture sector green itself while maintaining growth? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by co-host Kobad Bhavnagri to talk with Alexander Liddington, a BloombergNEF food and agriculture analyst, about findings from the inaugural “Food and Agriculture Transition Indicators” research note. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Food and Agriculture Transition Indicators - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36969See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When the Iberian electrical grid blacked out earlier this year, there were real-life consequences. Widespread disruption of transportation, communication networks and essential services left Spain and Portugal temporarily paralyzed. Following the event, two separate reports were released by the Spanish government and the grid operator, Red Electrica de Espana, where both agreed that voltage fluctuations were the root cause of the outage. However, they then went on to present conflicting opinions as to why authorities were unable to bring voltage under control. So why did this voltage fluctuation occur in the first place, and what actions have been taken to protect the Iberian electricity grid from future incidents? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Eva Gonzalez Isla, a senior associate from BNEF’s grids team, to discuss findings from her research note “Iberia Blackout: Blame Before Facts”. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Spain Clears €750 Million for Grid After 16-Hour Blackout: React - https://www.bnef.com/analyst-reactions/sz4qsadwlu6800 Iberia Blackout: Blame Before Facts - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36887 Spain Blackout Accounts Pin Blame But Do Little for Grid: React - https://www.bnef.com/analyst-reactions/sy3km9dwlu6800See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we explore how the legislation’s attack on renewable energy may push up electricity bills and damage US competitiveness in AI. The tax credits in President Joe Biden’s sprawling Inflation Reduction Act were introduced to help the US keep up with rising electricity demand by making clean power sources cheaper. But now the big bill has changed all that, and an executive order issued days after its passage suggests his war on renewables isn’t over yet. Joining host Stephanie Flanders to discuss this dramatic turn of events are guests Ethan Zindler, head of country and policy research at BloombergNEF and previously climate counselor to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Bloomberg lobbying and influence reporter Emily Birnbaum.  For more episodes of Trumponomics, subscribe on Apple or Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Just how green are the investment portfolios of credit, equity and multi-asset funds? Building on its existing suite of banking and investment ratios, BloombergNEF has introduced the Energy Supply Fund-Enabled Capex Ratio, which assesses how much a given investment portfolio is contributing to low-carbon capital expenditures for every dollar directed to fossil fuels. Worldwide, low-carbon energy gets just 48 cents for every fossil-fuel dollar, but the regional picture when it comes to funding this new “industrial revolution” is far more complex. On today’s show, Dana Perkins is joined by BNEF finance and investment associate Ryan Loughead to discuss how investors are funding the low-carbon industrial revolution and the inaugural “Energy Supply Fund-Enabled Capex Ratio” report. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Energy Supply Fund Enabled Capex Ratio - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36751See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone is talking about how much energy data centers and artificial intelligence will gobble up in the coming years. Yet AI is just one part of a vast, complex and constantly evolving energy landscape. So how will the AI revolution fit into a world where electric vehicles are displacing liquid road fuels, renewable-power projects are stuck in grid queues and big tech is investing in nuclear? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Ian Berryman, BloombergNEF’s head of energy systems modeling, to discuss findings from this year’s edition of the New Energy Outlook. For the first time ever, BNEF’s flagship report has modeled the impact of data centers on the transition to a low-carbon economy. But how much of the global power supply will AI really require? And will additional clean energy sources be built to meet that added demand, or could the extra grid strain simply extend the lifespan of fossil-fuel generation? Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: New Energy Outlook 2025 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36179 Executive Summary - https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/new-energy-outlook/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sales of electric vehicles are set for another record-breaking year. Thanks to falling battery costs and a rise in affordable models, plug-in EVs will represent a quarter of global passenger car sales in 2025. And while a rollback in government support has taken a bite out of EV uptake in the US, other countries are more than making up for this setback. Chinese automakers have been growing their footprint overseas, leading to strong growth in emerging markets. In China itself, organic consumer demand will lead to 50% of new vehicle sales this year coming with a plug, far surpassing government targets, and strong domestic sales of range-extended EVs have led them to become the fastest-growing drivetrain in the world. On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Colin McKerracher, BloombergNEF’s Head of Clean Transport, to discuss findings from this year’s Electric Vehicle Outlook. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025 - https://www.bnef.com/flagships/ev-outlookSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Trump administration has made no bones about its desire to revitalize the US’s nuclear power industry. With four new executive orders hot off the president’s desk, nuclear is being treated as a silver bullet, capable of meeting AI power demand while shoring up the country’s energy independence. The US is also looking to counter China and Russia, which in recent years have led the way in nuclear technology rollout both at home and abroad. But can this new policy push elicit the market response required to rebuild the US’s nuclear energy industrial base? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by BloombergNEF’s lead nuclear analyst, Chris Gadomski, to discuss findings from his note “Trump Pushes Nuclear But Market Pull Is Uncertain.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Trump Pushes Nuclear But Market Pull Is Uncertain - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36697See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Solar module prices have been cratering in recent years, dragged down by global oversupply. Yet while this glut of photovoltaics has hammered manufacturer profits, it has also allowed emerging economies that are hungry for affordable energy to get into the solar game, and demand growth is still strong this year. So what lies ahead for this notoriously tricky market, could energy storage help mitigate electricity price spikes, and what impact could the Trump administration’s tariffs have on domestic US solar manufacturing? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Jenny Chase, a BloombergNEF solar specialist, to discuss findings from her note “2Q 2025 Global PV Market Outlook.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: 2Q 2025 Global PV Market Outlook - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36693See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The oil and gas sector invested $33.4 billion in the energy transition last year. Yet while this figure suggests that decarbonization is a serious consideration for some fossil-fuel majors, just seven companies accounted for 85% of the sector’s low-carbon spend in 2024, and only 13 of 41 companies assessed raised low-carbon investment as a share of capex. So what are the different strategies oil and gas companies are pursuing when it comes to the energy transition? And why would a fossil-fuel company invest in clean tech in the first place? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Claudio Lubis, an associate from BNEF’s downstream oil and chemicals team, to discuss findings from his note “Oil and Gas Energy Transition 2024: Clean Capex Jumps.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transitions to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Oil and Gas Energy Transition 2024: Clean Capex Jumps - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36589See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Europe is making quick work of executing large industrial decarbonization infrastructure projects. The continent now boasts large-scale facilities for carbon capture, storage and transit in the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, Italy and Norway. But how have policymakers managed to incentivize and facilitate the installation of these massive projects, and what’s required to push the sector even further? At the 2025 BloombergNEF Summit Munich, Martin Tengler, BNEF’s head of hydrogen research, moderated a panel titled “Getting Industrial Decarbonization Megaprojects on Their Feet: Evaluating Early Success.” This episode brings listeners that panel, which featured Kristin Myskja, director general and head of climate, industry and technology for the Norwegian Ministry of Energy; Anders Hoffman, deputy permanent secretary for the Danish Ministry for Climate, Energy and Utilities; Dick Benschop, chair of the board at Mission Possible Partnership; and Stefanie Hiesinger, head of unit for low-carbon solutions for Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) at the European Commission. To learn more about BNEF’s Summits taking place around the world and to see recordings of BNEF Talks at previous Summits, head to https://about.bnef.com/summit/.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Extreme weather has always meant extreme risks for businesses and investors. Yet climate change has varied the calculus, and many businesses are facing new, potentially existential risks as the world and the energy transition heat up. As such, central banks and financial supervisors have begun conducting climate risk stress tests, to ensure these institutions are capable of mitigating the potential impacts of a changing climate. But what do these tests entail, which markets have been the most proactive in conducting them, and what exactly is “climate risk” anyway? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Tifenn Brandily, BloombergNEF’s head of transition risk and alignment, and special guest Edo Schets, Bloomberg’s head of climate, nature and regulatory financial solutions, to discuss findings from the note “Climate Risk Stress Test Review”. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transitions to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Climate Risk Stress Test Review - https://www.bnef.com/insights/35901 TRACT - https://www.bnef.com/insights/34869 Worksheet Sample Library for Physical Risk - WSL PHYSICALRISK<GO> Worksheet Sample Library for Water - WSL WATER<GO>See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A United Nations-led aviation decarbonization scheme could offer some respite for carbon credit markets mired in controversy. With the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, also known as CORSIA, the UN is looking to offer legitimacy for carbon credits, to help tackle emissions at scale. The scheme has a global footprint, with a roster of 126 markets set to expand to 135 in 2027, but with the US and EU threatening to pull their involvement, just how impactful can CORSIA really be? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Layla Khanfar, an associate on BNEF’s environmental markets team, to discuss her recent note “Aviation Credits Market Outlook: CORSIA Gets Its Wings”. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Aviation Credits Market Outlook: CORSIA Gets Its Wings - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36451See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rise of AI data centers is reshaping the outlook for US power markets. Forecast to account for nearly a 10th of all US electricity demand by 2035, data centers are gobbling up power more quickly than electric vehicles, hydrogen or any other demand class this decade. A profound concentration of capital has allowed for this rapid expansion, which is now exerting influence over energy infrastructure and planning investment. But what forms do data centers take, and what are the factors and strategies that influence associated decision making? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of US Power, Helen Kou, and Senior Associate Nathalie Limandibhratha to discuss their recent note “US Data Center Market Outlook: The Age of AI”. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: US Data Center Market Outlook: The Age of AI - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36281See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Clean energy investment in the US grew $50 billion last year. With interest rates easing and inflation in decline, the market appears to be well positioned to meet skyrocketing power demand from sources like artificial intelligence and data centers. Yet it’s not all smooth sailing: price cannibalization, curtailment risks, tariffs and clean energy policy shifts from the new Trump administration all present challenges for investors. So what business models and strategies are required to keep the momentum going? At the 2025 BloombergNEF Summit New York, Pol Lezcano, a senior associate from BNEF’s solar team, moderated a panel titled “Sustaining Momentum in US Renewable Investments.” This episode brings listeners that panel, which featured Andrew Gongaware, managing director at BMO Capital Markets; Matt Ransweiler, senior vice president for finance and capital markets at Invenergy; Miguel Pena, managing director and head of project finance for the Americas at BBVA; and Corinne Still, partner at Apollo Global Management. To learn more about BNEF’s Summits taking place around the world and to see recordings of BNEF Talks at previous Summits, head to https://about.bnef.com/summit/.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One hundred days of the second Trump presidency have passed, and the impact has already been significant. While running for president, Donald Trump put the Inflation Reduction Act, ESG investing and clean energy policy in his crosshairs, only to have been held up once in office by courts, members of Congress and some states. The “Liberation Day” tariffs created turmoil on global markets, and his administration has again had to pause and row back some levies, while others are being renegotiated. To guide us through these first 100 days of the second Trump term, Tom is joined on today’s episode by Derrick Flakoll, BloombergNEF senior policy associate for North America, to discuss recent BNEF research notes including “Trump’s Investment Rules Hold Back Made-in-US Clean Tech” and “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Spell Chaos for Clean Energy Markets: React”. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Trump’s Investment Rules Hold Back Made-in-US Clean Tech - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36067 Reciprocal’ Tariffs Spell Chaos for Clean Energy Markets: React - https://www.bnef.com/analyst-reactions/su5u2hdwx2ps00See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.