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Gonzo Finance!
Hugh Hendry is an Award Winning Hedge Fund Manager, Market Commentator, Thought Leader, St Barts Real Estate Investor & Surfer.
Full episodes are available at https://www.patreon.com/HughHendry and https://hughhendry.substack.com
171 Episodes
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Send us a text Markets have a habit of choosing the path that hurts the most people, and this week they proved it. We open with a jolt: CarMax plunges 24%, the CEO is shown the door, and used‑car demand looks like a classic pull‑forward that left a hole in today’s sales. From there, we follow the thread across the macro tapestry: consumer sentiment hovering near crisis lows, layoffs announced at a pace that clashes with payroll prints, and a tech slide that turns “AI capex” from dream to doub...
Send us a text What if the cleanest read on market risk isn’t a sentiment index but the dollar itself? We connect the dots from DXY’s slide and rebound to the invisible gears of Eurodollar credit, showing how collateral breathes through trade invoices, repos, and leverage, and how that breath has begun to shorten. From port softness and a reported 17% drop in trucking volumes to tighter haircuts and slower factoring, we map the quiet contraction that can force risk assets to pay a toll in the...
Send us a text When logic fails, hedges break, and the models panic. Markets rarely behave. In this episode, Hugh Hendry unpacks why. Exploring what happens when models flash red and logic collapses in real time. From George Gammon’s CarMax hedge to the intricacies of dating, calculating sexual market value and the Fed’s confused dance with Treasury policy, Hugh dissects how a “Z-score of 3” moment becomes a one-in-a-thousand event that reshapes portfolios. He links collapsing used-car ...
Send us a text The Ricardian Equivalence, Treasury Debt, and the Modernity of Money Support the show ⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/HughHendry https://hughhendry.substack.com https://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficial https://blancbleustbarts.com https://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts! 🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X 📩 Substack 👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe 📺 You...
Send us a text Do Deficits Make You Rich? The uncomfortable truth: fiscal stimulus creates wealth, not consumer inflation. Sat pondering in a Caribbean bar, thinking about intelligence, the Fed, deficits, and why inflation lives in Wall Street not in your supermarket basket. When the government runs a deficit, it injects reserves into the system, an automatic overdraft with the banking system. Later it issues Treasuries that drain those reserves. Economists call it a swap. Net financial wealt...
Send us a text In this acid breath of mine, I drift between the sublime and the sardonic. I trace how America, once the debtor, became the empire, how quantitative easing rewired the flow of wealth from the cautious creditor to the restless entrepreneur. China hoarded savings, America dis-saved, and the machine rolled on until an American administration was bold enough to call time. Gold gleams like a reflexive meme, Bitcoin hums like a ghost in the circuitry, but US equitie...
Send us a text I began with CPI, but as usual, I ended up somewhere between Beethoven and gold. The headline CPI 3%, core the same. The whisper was higher. The market calls it “Goldilocks.” Not too hot, not too cold. I call it “Never be a dick for a tick.” That’s how you survive this racket. Everyone obsesses over decimals while the system quietly breaks and remakes itself. The models are wrong, the Fed’s neutral rate misplaced, and shelter data a bad joke. Markets have music. Sometimes off k...
Send us a text Perhaps the best, most revealing of this daily series. This is macro analysis as cabaret. The Japanese call it, rakugoka (落語家), a man in kimono, I have no kimono, seated on a cushion performing poignant financial monologues. The entire performance relies on market imagination. If in a hurry, skip the first 15 to 30 mins. You can't miss what follows. American housing flickers, Kansas manufacturing hums, and in Asia the monetary plumbing begins to shake. I explo...
Send us a text ʏᴇꜱᴛᴇʀᴅᴀʏ’ꜱ ᴛʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ ꜰᴇʟᴛ ʟɪᴋᴇ ᴀ ᴍɪʀᴀɢᴇ. ᴛʜᴇ ᴍᴀʀᴋᴇᴛ ʟᴏᴏᴋᴇᴅ ᴄᴀʟᴍ, ʏᴇᴛ ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ ᴛʜᴇ ꜱᴜʀꜰᴀᴄᴇ ᴛʜᴇʀᴇ ᴡᴀꜱ ꜱʜᴀᴋᴇꜱᴘᴇᴀʀᴇᴀɴ ᴅʀᴀᴍᴀ. ꜱᴛᴏᴄᴋꜱ ᴅɪᴇᴅ ɪɴ ᴘʟᴀɪɴ ꜱɪɢʜᴛ ᴡʜɪʟᴇ ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴅᴇx ʙᴀʀᴇʟʏ ʙʟɪɴᴋᴇᴅ. ɢᴏʟᴅ ᴛʀᴇᴍᴏʀꜱ ᴄᴏɴᴛɪɴᴜᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʟʟᴏᴡɪɴɢ ɪᴛꜱ ᴛʜʀᴇᴇ ꜱɪɢᴍᴀ ᴅᴀʏ,ᴛʜᴇ ᴋɪɴᴅ ᴏꜰ ᴍᴏᴠᴇ ᴛʜᴀᴛ ᴏɴʟʏ ᴠɪꜱɪᴛꜱ ᴏɴᴄᴇ ᴇᴠᴇʀʏ ꜰᴇᴡ ʏᴇᴀʀꜱ. ᴛʜᴇ ʙᴜꜱʜ ʙᴜʀɴᴇᴅ, ᴛʜᴇ ꜱᴏ-ᴄᴀʟʟᴇᴅ “2-ɪɴ-ᴛʜᴇ-ʙᴜꜱʜ” ꜰᴀɴᴛᴀꜱʏ ɢʀᴏᴡᴛʜ ꜱᴛᴏᴄᴋꜱ ᴡᴇʀᴇ ᴛᴏʀᴄʜᴇᴅ, ᴀɴᴅ ɪ ꜱᴀᴛ ʜᴇʀᴇ ᴡᴏɴᴅᴇʀɪɴɢ, ɪꜱ ᴛʜᴇ ᴍᴀʀᴋᴇᴛ ᴀʟɪᴠᴇ ᴏʀ ᴅᴇᴀᴅ? ɪ ᴋᴇᴘᴛ ᴄᴏᴍɪɴɢ ʙᴀᴄᴋ ᴛᴏ ꜱᴄʜʀᴏᴅɪɴɢᴇʀ’ꜱ ᴄᴀᴛ. ᴛʜᴀᴛ ᴘᴏᴏʀ ʙᴇᴀꜱᴛ ꜱᴇ...
Send us a text October 21st, no fanfare, just me and my thoughts. I have been on X all day, and only later realized gold had fallen sharply. Some people thought I had timed my comments to take gold down, as if I could move the market. It made me laugh. I start by questioning gold's 50 percent gain this year. If that rise is really fundamental, then there must be better trades no one is touching. That brings me to call options, far out on the horizon, like March 2027. I walk through the logic ...
Send us a text Creativity, Chaos, and the Signals That Matter Gold's ripping, stocks are ripping, but this isn't a hedge, it's a hallucination. In today's episode, I break down the paradox of rising fear assets and euphoria trades moving in sync. We bounce off China's Q3 GDP: if the US won't provide data, the Chinese will. And I revisit how creativity really works, not through structure, but through a blissful surrender. Then we take another stab at valuing gold in a s...
Send us a text Any Fool Could Make Money in Gold But Only a Lunatic Could Explain It Like This The lights flicker but they don't go out. Today I tracked the silence. No CPI, no jobs print, no retail sales. The government is shut. The market is not. What moved was subtle. What didn’t move, the real story. Treasury yields dipped below 4 percent momentarily. Safety or something stranger? Bank stocks cracked again. Zions and KeyCorp lit the fuse with rising provisions and sour auto and credit car...
Send us a text There’s a smell in the air, that faint electric tang before a storm. The markets are choppy, the screens green and red in alternating flickers, and behind it all you can almost hear the static of something old returning. In this episode of Acid Breath, I drive straight through the fog. The Philadelphia Fed survey just recorded its steepest drop since 2020; the factory heartbeat of America skipping hard. Across the Pacific, Taiwan Semiconductor printed perfection: record profits...
Send us a text ARM Ascends, Oil Drifts, Queens Endures I open on macro static and shutdown fog, a strange steadiness where the market beat goes on. The Beige Book whispers fractures, three Fed districts up, five flat, four softening, a recalibration more than a roar. The feature turns to ARM, where the data center bottleneck is power, not code. ARM sells the blueprint, cutting CPU energy use perhaps by half, and the live question is simple: can it win 50 percent of data center CPUs.&nbs...
Send us a text A market meditation disguised as weather report, part Fear and Loathing, part BBC Shipping Forecast. Markets drift in a haze of caution and theatrical boredom. Bankers profit without joy, express bubble caution Traders fears resemble yoga poses held too long. Everyone trembling, pretending its balance when its really strain. This is macro as performance art: wind light to variable, visibility ironicconfidence intermittent. Verdict, witty, contr...
Send us a text The Day Silver Spoke and AI Went Industrial The age of abundance is over: compute, energy, and silver say so. Acid Breath Daily is Hugh Hendry’s financial freak show : a daily dive into markets where logic wrestles madness and central banks juggle chainsaws. It’s macro with a migraine, tequila spilled on spreadsheets, silver screaming at AI, and politicians pretending they can count. No safe takes, no sermons, just volatility with a pulse. Support the show ⬇️ Subscribe on Pat...
Send us a text Today’s Acid Breath is a descent into the machinery behind the market’s tremor. Tariffs ignite, rare earths reveal their dirty chemistry, and America’s clean hands look suspiciously like Walter White’s gloves. Are we about to Break Bad? I pack away a shadow CPI masquerading as today's real deal, a half-billion hit at Jefferies that smells of 2007 teen spirit, and a twenty-billion tango with Argentina that echoes the Tequila bailout. The dollar doesn't only price the...
Send us a text Shadowlight A new inflation priesthood grabbed the pulpit. With officials offstage, a retail outfit called OpenBrand dropped a fresh CPI and the press sang hymns. I torch the cosplay, then hold up the mirror. In markets, any number that moves price pretends to be truth. That is the joke. That is the trade. Now the prints that matter. Jobless claims at 258,000. A soft miss, not a crisis. The cleanest weekly read on labor chills before payrolls. Then the stealth masterclass. The ...
Send us a text Day eight of the shutdown, no data, no scoreboard, just thunder over St Barts and my voice in the dark. The Philly Fed whispers life and the Fed’s month-old minutes somehow steal the show: dovish, nervous, and oddly triumphant. I talk about Stephen Miran’s population shocks: millions arriving, then vanishing, the beat that moves jobs and rents faster than the Fed can blink. I take you from Malta to Tokyo, from tariffs to the Kobayashi test, asking why America ...
Send us a text Acid Breath - Kobayashi Test - 7 October 2025 Government shut, data feed dead, and the market is whispering its sins. I open today’s Acid Breath by reading price as confession, not scripture. Regional banks are mating for survival as Fifth Third reaches for Comerica, a fear of dying small dressed up as synergy. A trillion dollars threatens to seep from emerging world vaults into dollar stablecoins, sovereign power seeping through circuitry, not warships. Stellantis ...
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boat's name was Bayesian. irony (taunt?) not lost.
awful.
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