The Argument

How can Europe's liberals stop the far-right? Matt Yglesias and Jerusalem Demsas debate the far right's rise in Germany, France, and beyond, and whether Europe's mainstream parties mishandled immigration and opened the door for the AfD and Marine Le Pen. They get into what Sweden and Denmark got right on integration, why deportations and asylum deterrence are so hard, whether liberals should ever govern with the far right, and why Europe's strange aversion to air conditioning is a gift to populists.Plus a peer review on whether having more kids pushes mothers into remote work.(00:00) Are liberals losing Europe?(6:24) Magna Carta, freedom of movement, and immigration(14:05) Dril tweets and the sane-washing dilemma(20:29) Should liberals give into populist demands?(28:14) Joe Biden, deportations, and asylum(31:47) Libya, the Mediterranean, and deterrence(41:02) What Sweden and Denmark got right(48:20) France, the UK, and air conditioning(52:02) Peer Review: moms and remote workSupport the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias debate whether artificial intelligence poses an existential risk to human civilization, or if that idea is just a dangerous distraction from real, near-term risks. Matt's case for doom is that we'll cede more power and authority to AI agents as they recursively self-improve, leaving humans more vulnerable in the end. Jerusalem pushes back on this and argues that obsessing over extinction scenarios makes it harder to regulate biological weapons, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and the economic disruptions already underway.Plus a peer review of a new paper on why meetings can actually be good for you and your company.(00:00) Is advanced AI going to kill us all?(04:09) Jerusalem pushes back on AI doom(07:26) The Claude Code auto-mode problem(11:02) Bioweapons and AI's real near-term risks(15:41) Why extinction risk still matters politically(19:21) Why Matt is scared of a flawless AI(33:13) Reasons AI won't take over(52:08) The case for an AI pause(58:54) Peer review: why meetings are actually good for youSupport the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

For this month’s book club, Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias read Friedrich von Hayek’s “The Road to Serfdom,” the 1944 book that argued central planning inevitably leads to totalitarianism and became one of the most cited books in American and British politics. Jerusalem and Matt get into whether Hayek’s central thesis actually explains Nazi Germany, the similarities between socialism and fascism, and why authoritarian regimes are always run by scumbags instead of nice-guy technocrats.(00:00) Are we on the road to serfdom?(02:25) Hayek's real argument: central planning leads to dictatorship(05:26) Britain puts Hayek's theory to the test(08:20) What's the line between socialism and the welfare state?(14:49) Why this 80-year-old debate keeps coming back(20:45) The viral tweet about life before Uber(31:49) What does "economic freedom" actually mean?(48:22) Decentralizing power: philanthropy, federalism, and price controls(56:45) When regulation goes too far(01:15:28) Why the worst people always end up on topSupport the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

As the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks approaches, Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias look back at the day itself, the warning signs that preceded it, and the 25 years of politics that followed. They trace how the response reshaped foreign policy, launched the global War on Terror, and set the Republican Party on a path that eventually led to Donald Trump and the rise of MAGA. They also get into the intelligence failures before the hijackings, the Patriot Act, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and how the Republicans and Democrats have flipped on issues like security and surveillance. Plus a peer review on how private tutoring centers like Kumon affect student performance.(00:00) The difference between George W. Bush and Donald Trump(03:53) The World Trade Center bombing(07:02) Why the towers didn't collapse right away(11:58) The many red flags(15:55) Bush, Saddam, and the Gulf War(24:40) How today's GOP would have responded differently(29:05) The hate crime surge, and who it actually hit(33:06) Neocons, hawkish Democrats, and the case for war(45:55) Why right liberalism is in retreat(57:06) Somalia, Black Hawk Down, and intervention fatigue(01:09:04) Explaining 9/11 to people who don't remember it(01:13:07) If a Democrat was president on 9/11(01:22:52) Peer review: How much do private tutors really help?Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.

Nate Silver thinks the center-left might be right about a lot of policy questions, but they're still losing the political argument. He joins Jerusalem Demsas, Matt Yglesias, and special guest Jeremiah Johnson (staff writer at The Argument and host of the New Liberal Podcast) to dive into his recent article, "12 questions for the center-left." They get into whether liberalism and centrism are actually the same thing, why liberals need to be more vocal about their accomplishments, and whether many "anti-establishment" politicians like AOC, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders are actually part of the establishment. Plus a peer review of a new paper on AI-assisted decision-making in child protective services and what it reveals about human and algorithmic bias.(00:00) Nate Silver's questions for the center-left(03:48) Vibe check for the center-left(07:44) Liberalism vs. centrism: not the same thing(09:48) Zohran Mamdani and sewer socialism(19:45) Answering Hasan Piker: do centrists believe in anything?(24:52) Why the Democratic establishment won't get overthrown(46:31) Why the center-left won't get angry(50:36) What happened to the center-right?(57:29) Is the DSA a threat to liberalism?(59:57) California, LA, and the failure of one-party rule(01:08:04) Peer review: Can AI make CPS decisions less biased?Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: TheArgumentMag.comNew episodes every Thursday — subscribe so you never miss a debate!The Argument is produced by Justin Zuckerman, fact-checked by Eli Richman, with music by Breakmaster Cylinder and art by Ben Tousley.