The BashCast

Agenda: This is the audio from the YouTube video - The BashCast:: Late and Live.  Who’s got the bag?  Fred is doubling and tripling some match odds this weekend – we dive into the mathematics and the EV. Football coupons – profits from the weekend from football coupons, the first edge we had at BB Storytime – have you ever Outplayed anyone? Have you ever been Outplayed yourself? Let’s have a little story about … Outplayed Yardstick - A new standalone tool at bookiebashing for finding value in horse racing Double Delight Hatrick Heaven – whats happened last week and whats happening right now. The Ryder cup next week – can we find an edge, and even if we can – do we want to bet on it? The audio isn't perfect but we'll work on that. Timestamps are not available for this week. #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

Agenda: [00:02:09] - Tom goes through his summer breaks, the trials, the tribulations, the drownings and the lost vehicles [00:34:23] -Horse racing goes through a losing spell during August so we deep dive into how bad it was in relative terms [00:49:29] - Tom hits a £20k Lucky 15 just before the summer and so we discuss that bet, the last years horse system bets and some strategies for longevity in horse racing betting [01:04:49] - Double Delight Hatrick Heaven is back and weekend one serves up nearly £3000 profit [01:28:01] - Special Announcement! A new format is coming on Thursday 18th September [01:34:20] - This segment is, frankly, unacceptable and it is advised that you turn off at this timestamp. #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

Agenda: [00:01:57] - Tom walks a couple of miles in the freezing cold before realising he’s forgotten his shoes [00:16:20] - Europa edges on FCSB vs Man United, goals across the games and a review of PSV vs Liverpool [00:35:03] - Tom discusses a long losing run to start 2025 [00:41:36] - A review of the market performance for goals, corners,player cards and shots on target [00:52:49] - And some value and bets in this years 2025 Six Nations  #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

Agenda: [00:02:05] - Tom takes his dog for a walk and gets in a confrontation with a lady [00:20:15] - Changing times at bookiebashing [00:27:06] - A champions league mistake with Young Boys v Atalanta that lands and a review of the First Goalscorer calculation [00:43:07] - A first goal scorer edge in Crvena Zvedvedaveda [00:47:16] - The Circasports Survivor contest in Nevaga #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

[00:02:00] - Tom goes to see Moby and calls for an end to the scam that is discretionary services charges at restaurants [00:22:50] - Explaining the concept of normalisation in data organisation and how it can be applied to betting for an edge [00:39:34] - A deep dive into the inter-relationships between Team Most Shots on Target and Team to Win and whether there is a decent bet on Stoke vs Hull tonight #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

Agenda: [00:02:00] - Look out, because Tom is back from the summer break and has switched on the projector to recount tales of surfing, zombies and mushroom pizza [00:20:56] - We look further back to the SmartBash 2024 and review the positives, the negatives and a request for a couple to get in touch [00:37:12] - The Gambling Reform Summit has taken place in Westminster this September, has any apparent value come from it? [00:53:14] - We finish with a look at a heater that has started off Toms Autumn Season of betting. #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

Agenda: [00:02:02] - Tom finds out Environmental Services are after him [00:08:05] - 2024 Smart Betting Club Awards - The BashCast is back [00:22:52] - More bad behaviour on Social Media - Fanwave Digital, Badmanbetting, Racing Blogger and Pro Sports Advice [00:56:08] - Is the Gambling Commission investigation into insider betting on the election a waste of time? #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee 

Agenda: [00:01:54] - We discuss the long-short paradox of time and how it applies to betting [00:10:50] - Tom figures out he can still bet on Eurovision after he knows the result, but should he? [00:20:13] - An exchange edge on the 8 place market in golf that everyone can play in [00:33:18] - The good and the bad from the goalscorer betting worlds as Tom gets Lucky [00:46:29] - And we finish with a look at the charlatans at the Guardian and the anything-but Charlatans at the SmartBash #bettingat100.1andabove   Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee  

Agenda: [00:02:30] Tom goes to Disneyland, finds it has the lowest ROI of anything in the world [00:15:48] My Gambling history – where I started ,how I met some syndicates, why Duncan started bookiebashing in my kitchen and whether we can speak from any position of authority [00:46:14] SmartBash 2024 – tickets are selling fast, we have some big names that will be announced soon, big panels and bigger discussions planed at the UKs premier punter focussed networking event [01:02:01] Udinese v Bologna -= an example of where huge equite in a game where big value bets don’t mean nothing to the overall profit/loss picture [01:16:20] Betting isn’t for everyone – why you shouldn’t tell anyone you’re successful at punting on sports [01:31:39] From across the pond – gambling stories from the NFL and MLB that will make your eyes water #bettingat100.1andabove NB: We know there are some sound issues on the BashCast where some segments are loud and others are quieter. This is being worked on for future episodes! Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee 

Agenda: [00:01:55] - Toms answers a question from a Pinnacle Odds Compiler over M25 roadworks [00:15:36] - Jesse May and Ronan join us for a sneaky peak chat about Smart Bash 2024 (in association with Matchbook) this summer – and this time, everyone is invited to the party [00:30:32] - A profit loss review for Toms gambling in shops and on exchanges in February and March [00:49:58] - Cheltenham Festival Wrap Up [01:06:05] - Is over 3.5 the new over 2.5? What is going on with premiership goals this season Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ #bettingat100.1andabove Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

Agenda: [00:01:40] - Tom quits drinking only to be disappointed in the entire human race [00:10:10] - Cheltenham festival is round the corner - we look at tipsters, who you can trust and who you cannot trust [00:35:27] - A shift in liquiidty at the exchanges as Matchbook, Betdaq and Smarkets catch ground on Betfair [00:48:54] - Abbie MacGregor and Andrew Woodman off of the Gamblers Consumer Forum join us to discuss last weeks debate on affordability checks in gambling at Parliament Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net #bettingat100.1andabove https://gamblersconsumerforum.com/ https://twitter.com/GamblersCForum 

Agenda: [00:01:40] - Tom recounts the time when he caused the meltdown of the cloakroom ticketing system at the Zanzibar nightclub in 1996. [00:15:10] - We revisit @AndryRobsonTips after the last BashCast and have more information about the origins of these tweets. [00:41:00] - We break down some of the mathematics of the enhanced specials at betdaq to show how to find value with or without a bookiebashing subscription. [00:58:11] - New scandals are breaking in the online poker world [01:21:35] - Tales of Duncan of Yore - Part 2 Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net #bettingat100.1andabove 

Agenda:   [00:01:55] - Toms Xmas Dinner ends up on the kitchen floor [00:09:03] - An in depth review of the mathematics and morals of @AndyRobsonTips [00:51:27] - Pricing Luke Littler in the PDC World Championships [01:12:47] - Exchange edges and a partnership with Betdaq [01:35:28] - A looks at my first shop bets of the year and has anything changed in the models for 2024? [01:54:00] - Tales of Duncan of Yore - a new feature on the BashCast   Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

Agenda: We are joined by Jon Roberts from Predictology. In this episode we discuss I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here, skillsets for beating the markets, the logistics of reliable odds collection, modelling football, historical trending, pre-match vs inplay edges and the all important 2023 BashCast Xmas Quiz. https://www.predictology.co/ https://www.youtube.com/@predictology https://www.bookiebashing.net/ #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:   [00:01:47] - Toms recounts a ten pin bowling evening that ends with putting someone in hospital [00:12:43] - Horse racing ups and downs through the year and optimising horses by odds band [00:28:49] - Newcastle play Dortmund in the Champions League and we look at edges in the Players xG [00:44:50] - A consultation on the bookiebashing bet tracker and whether it does more harm than good [01:18:53] - A Prisoners Dilemma as two advantage players find a loophole in video poker machines   #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:01:59] - Tom donates some money from a Mudryk win and recounts a story when he nearly caused a racial riot [00:13:08] - A Ryder Cup summary, a few decent edges and angles and a missed opportunity [00:34:57] - Betfred have a new Hotshots coupon in shops, how to calculate the value in a team to have the most goals on a Champions League evening [00:52:10] - New Bookiebashing member Hussain joins us to share with us some $$$ success stories from his first few months value betting [01:08:45] - The Gambling Commission send an extraordinary letter to the Racing Post. Can the Can Can man save us? #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:01:46] - Tom gets into trouble with an exotic bird over the summer holidays [00:21:00] - The Rugby World Cup – modelling points with a negative binomial probability, Fijian value + the xPlayerTries model [00:39:19] - Thrill Seeker. Disrupter. Charlatan - a copycat challenges what others think is possible by copying our horse racing tracker. We explain why it doesn’t have much chance [01:11:23] - And Aaron Rodgers achilles heel seems to be voided prop bets. #bettingat100.1andabove 

Agenda:   [00:01:58] - Tom recaps the Smart-Bash event, the positives, the negatives, the-EV blackjack and the Jaeger Bombs that cost £1500 [00:33:04] - The Womens World Cup is underway – what edges are we looking at and given the goals in 2019 will it be overs and overs and overs and overs? [00:49:17] -We have an email segment – some praise, some trolls, feedback from the BTC segment in the last BashCast and a technical question around Closing Line Value [01:21:20] - And some words of honesty ahead of the school summer holiday break as Tom goes on the hunt for a new best friend. All of that and more coming up in the BashCast this afternoon   #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:02:20] - Tom heads to a poker tournament looking for back to back victories [00:23:20] - Golf betting on the exchange - Pete from SBC joins us to discuss his strategies and fantasy golf betting [00:53:00] - Twitter - an Icy tweet is negative, Tom comments on it [01:00:30] - New tools released at bookiebashing this summer [01:08:00] - Shots Fired - p-values and edges is there an edge at this trading community or is it smoke and mirrors? What is going on?  #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:02:11] - Tom fails to find panko breadcrumbs during a camping trip [00:16:15] - Golf betting – a pointless exercise into working out which players have the lowest and the highest ROI [00:32:11] - Horse racing – multiple wins to talk about - five figures and a six figures [00:52:17] - Hey Jude – mega value with Bellingham and how we can use seemingly useless palps to find value in other areas [01:01:16] - Shots on Target – A review of all historical lines between 2020 and 2023 and analysis of where bookmakers place bias within their over/under margins in player stats. #bettingat100.1andabove