The Briefing Room

Five years ago we in the UK were in the false lull between the first wave of covid and the second, between the first variant and the second, between the first peak of covid deaths and the second, higher peak. There wasn’t a vaccine and we didn’t know when we might get one. Now it’s a memory. But another deadly pathogen might pop up in fifty years or it might be manifesting its early stages right now. In the final part of our three-part mini-series looking at how the resilient the UK might be in dealing with potential future crises, we’re asking…..how prepared are we to deal with the next pandemic?Guests: Dame Sarah Gilbert, Professor of Vaccinology at the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford; Sir Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infections and Global Health, and Director of the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford; Malik Peiris, Emeritus Professor of Virology in the School of Public Health at The University of Hong KongPresenter: David Aaronovitch Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight, Sally Abrahams Studio engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From councils disrupted by ransomware, leaked defence data or individuals duped by deep fakes, the UK faces increasing cyber threats. David Aaronovitch asks his guests how prepared we are - whether as government defending critical infrastructure or as individuals guarding our digital identities.Guests: Sadie Creese, Professor of Cyber Security in the department of computer science, Oxford University Dr Aybars Tuncdogan, Associate Professor in digital innovation and information security, Kings College, London Emily Taylor, CEO of Oxford Information Labs and Associate Fellow, Chatham House Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Ben Carter, Sally Abrahams and Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Sound Engineers: Dave O’Neill and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The UK is getting hotter. And wetter. Extreme weather events in the UK are happening more often. And that trend won’t stop any time soon. It all means more flooding and fire risk. Enter the R word - resilience - how well are we coping with what’s going on now, and how advanced is our planning for what’s coming? In the first of our three part mini series looking at how the resilient the UK might be in dealing with potential future crises we ask how prepared are we to deal with the changing climate? Guests:Mark Maslin, professor of Climatology at University College London Richard Dawson, professor of Engineering at Newcastle University Jess Neumann, Associate professor of hydrology at the University of ReadingProducers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

In a time of sluggish economic growth, the favourite way of squaring the circle of spending more but not increasing taxes is to borrow - and we have. Keeping everybody’s lights on during the pandemic and homes heated after the Russian invasion of Ukraine has helped send our national debt up from £1.8 trillion to £2.8 trillion in recent years.But the question for the chancellor Rachel Reeves is how much more debt we can afford - and how much more debt do the markets think we can afford?So what’s the answer to that? Guests:Duncan Weldon, economist and author of 'Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through' Mehreen Khan, economics editor of The Times Chris Giles, economics editor of The Financial TimesProducers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith

For years there has been an argument, sometimes loud, sometimes subdued, on whether Britain needs an ID card system. One big reason given for wanting them is simply to know who is here legally. With illegal and irregular migration never far from the headlines these days and with President Macron, during his recent visit describing the “pull factor” of illegal migrants being able to work in Britain, the debate is being resurrected. So, what is the history of ID cards in the UK, what form might they take if we have a system and would they work? Presenter: David AaronovitchGuests:Jon Agar, author of The Government Machine Rainer Kattel, Professor of Innovation and Public Governance, UCL Edgar Whitley, Professor of Information Systems in the Department of Management, LSE Rachel Coldicutt, technology specialist and executive director of the research consultancy, Careful Industries. Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: James Beard and Neil Churchill Editors: Sam Bonham and Bridget Harney

'Britain is back on the world stage' said Prime Minister Keir Starmer in May following the first UK-EU summit since the UK left the EU in January 2020. Outline agreements were reached to remove red tape for British farm exports and energy trading with the EU as well as plans for a security and defence partnership. Then a few weeks later the Prime Minister held summits in London with first the French President, Emmanuel Macron and then the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. David Aaronovitch asks whether this is the beginning of a new closer relationship with the European Union and if so, what compromises might need to be made.Guests: Peter Foster, World Trade Editor of the Financial Times Jill Rutter, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Government Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at Eurasia Group ConsultancyPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Ben Carter and Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Studio engineers: Callum Mclean and James Beard Editors: Richard Vadon and Lisa Baxter

It’s been 3 1/2 years since Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of its Ukrainian neighbour. Ukraine’s capacity to resist has depended on two things: its own will to fight and support from its allies. Until January this year the US was one of those allies. Then things changed. But in the last week President Trump seems to have taken a turn against Russia. The US president said he was “very unhappy” with President Putin over the lack of progress towards a ceasefire agreement to end the war in Ukraine. On Monday the White House announced 100 per cent tariffs on countries which do business with Russia - those tariffs to begin in 50 days time unless a ceasefire with Ukraine is agreed. President Trump also announced that the US would be sending weapons to Ukraine which NATO allies - and not America - would pay for. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss whether the tide is turning in the Trump-Putin relationship and if this could change the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Guests: Paul Adams, BBC World Affairs Correspondent Anton Grushetskyi, Executive director Kyiv International Institute of Sociology Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor, The Economist Angela Stent, Senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former US National Intelligence Officer for RussiaPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Ben Carter and Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Studio engineers: Tom Bartlett and Alyson Purcell-Davis Editor: Richard Vadon

The Trump hokey cokey is back. Tariffs on, tariffs reduced - now they’re heading back up again. It really got going on April 2nd- President Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” - when he announced a swathe of punitive tariffs on trading partners across the world. The markets tanked and then there was a pause. Countries had 90 days to strike a trade deal - 90 deals in 90 days - we were told. But there weren’t. There were only 2. The deadline was this week but now it’s next month. But in the past few days the White House has been sending out a flurry of letters with higher tariffs for those without a deal - which is almost everyone. David Aaronovitch asks his guests just what is going on, what’s happening to world trade and what happens next? Guests: Soumaya Keynes, Economics Columnist The Financial Times Meredith Crowley, Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of Michigan Philip Coggan, author, The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Sally Abrahams, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill and David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

The Government was forced into a humiliating climbdown over its controversial benefits bill this week, and any savings the Treasury had hoped to make were wiped out. The politics of this is a subject on its own, but the underlying problem the government was trying to solve, however, remains. David Aaronovitch asks his guests why the cost of disability benefits has ballooned so unexpectedly, who gets them and why and whether the system works for disabled people.Guests:Paul Lewis, Presenter Moneybox, BBC Radio 4 Tom Waters, Associate Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Louise Murphy, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation Ruth Patrick, Professor of Social and Public Policy, University of GlasgowPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump says the conflict between Israel and Iran is over after 12 days. For the US and Israel the declared objective has been to destroy Iran’s capacity to make a nuclear bomb, with a side order of regime change if possible. They have damaged Iran’s capacity to build nuclear weapons but for how long? And what now is the objective for Iran? To rebuild their nuclear weapons programme? Or just for the regime to stay in power? David Aaronovitch and his guests discuss what's next for Iran.Guests: Dr Patricia Lewis, arms control and nuclear physics expert Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, Dr Lina Khatib, Associate Fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St Andrews UniversityPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Editor: Richard Vadon

Following a deadly terrorist attack in Indian administered Kashmir in April a short military conflict broke out between India and Pakistan. For a brief history of the tensions over Kashmir Caroline Bayley spoke to former BBC India correspondent, Andrew Whitehead, who’s an expert on Kashmir and its history and author of “A mission in Kashmir”. This is part of a new mini-series called The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

As the Ukraine war grinds on with little sign of Russian president, Vladimir Putin agreeing to a ceasefire we trace the evolution of his attitude towards Ukraine. David Aaronovitch spoke to Vitaly Shevchenko who is Russia editor for BBC Monitoring and co-presenter of the BBC’s Ukrainecast.This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

Tariffs have dominated the first few months of President Trump’s second term. But where did he get the idea from? Ben Carter spoke to Douglas Irwin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire in the US.This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Ben Carter Editor: Richard Vadon

Rare earths and critical minerals are precious resources everyone seems to want but what are they and what are they used for? David Aaronovitch speaks to Ellie Saklatvala, head of Nonferrous Metal Pricing at Argus – a provider of market intelligence for the global commodity markets.Guest Ellie SaklatvalaThis is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

In the past few weeks Marks & Spencer, the Co-op and Harrods have all been grappling with the effects of cyber attacks. The most profitable form of cyber attack at the moment is ransomware where criminals infiltrate computer systems, shut them down and then demand a ransom to restore services, or even to stop them publishing data they’ve stolen. This is now a global criminal industry which can affect the running of whole businesses. Marks & Spencer said this week that disruption to its online ordering service would continue throughout June and into July. David Aaronovitch asks his guests how ransomware works, who is responsible and what can be done to stop it.Guests: Emily Taylor, CEO of Oxford Information Labs and co-founder Global Signal Exchange Geoff White, investigative journalist and author and co-host of the BBC’s podcast series, The Lazarus Heist Susan Landau, Professor of Cyber Security and Policy at Tufts University Professor Alan Woodward, a computer security expert at the University of SurreyPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Nathan Gower Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Engineers: James Beard and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Dire warnings of famine in Gaza, a broken ceasefire and the start by the Israeli government of a new “intense” offensive which could forcibly displace Palestinians to an area in the south of Gaza and perhaps out of the strip altogether, plus the latest release of a US hostage. This is the war between Israel and Gaza 19 months on from the deadly attack by Hamas which killed 1200 people in Israel and took 251 hostages. So what chance of peace between Israel and Hamas? Can a new ceasefire be negotiated with US backing or will Israel go it alone and forcibly occupy most of Gaza?Guests: Yolande Knell, BBC Middle East Correspondent Anshel Pfeffer, Israel Correspondent at The Economist, Yossi Mekelberg, Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House Shibley Telhami, Professor of Government and Politics at University of Maryland and a non resident senior fellow at Brookings Institution.Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Engineer: David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump has signed a minerals deal with Ukraine, which will give the US access to some of Ukraine’s natural resources. The US president also said he’d like to take over Greenland and even Canada. Why? Well one reason may well be the rare earths and critical minerals found there. Critical minerals are vital for almost every industry from the manufacturing of computers to fighter jets. But in recent years the rise of green technologies has been fuelling demand for minerals used to make batteries for electric cars and other renewable infrastructure. One country dominates the minerals market - China - which has repercussions for the rest of the world, including the US. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss what and where these minerals are, why everyone wants them and how the rest of the world can compete with China. Guests:Ellie Saklatvala, Head of Nonferrous Metal Pricing, Argus, a provider of market intelligence for the global commodity markets. Henry Sanderson, author of ‘Volt Rush, the Winners and Losers in the Race to Go Green’ and Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Sophia Kalantzakos, Global Distinguished Professor in Environmental Studies and Public Policy at New York University in Abu Dhabi and the author of 'China and the Geopolitics of Rare Earths' Olivia Lazard, a senior fellow affiliated with the think tank, Carnegie Europe and Berggruen InstitutePresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Nathan Gower and Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound engineer: David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

Tension is high in Indian administered Kashmir following the killing on 22nd April of 26 civilians almost all of whom were Hindu tourists. They were visiting Pahalgam - an area often described as the “Switzerland of India”. Militants opened fire on them and in the days since relations between India and Pakistan, which both claim Kashmir in full but only administer it in part, have deteriorated. India accuses Pakistan of supporting the militants and Islamabad rejects the allegations. This is the latest attack in a decades-long dispute over the region. David Aaronovitch and guests ask what happens next and what sort of a response we are likely to see from India and also Pakistan? Guests: Andrew Whitehead: Former BBC India correspondent and expert on Kashmir and its history, author of ‘A Mission in Kashmir’ Anbarasan Ethirajan: BBC South Asia Regional Editor Husain Haqqani : Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC and former Pakistan ambassador to Sri Lanka and the US Michael Kugelman - South Asia analyst based in Washington DC and author of Foreign Policy magazine’s South Asia Brief newsletter Sumantra Bose: Professor of International and Comparative Politics at Krea University in India and author of Kashmir at the Crossroads: Inside a 21st-Century ConflictPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer wants the UK to become “one of the great AI superpowers”. Earlier this year the government published a plan to use artificial intelligence in the private and public sectors to boost growth and deliver services more efficiently. Once mainly the preserve of the tech community, AI really entered public awareness with the release of ChatGPT, a so-called “chatbot” founded by the US company OpenAI at the end of 2022. It can write essays, scripts, poems and even write computer code …and millions of people are using it. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss whether the UK could become a successful AI hub, as the government hopes and asks if we'll be able to compete globally with the US and China, the home of huge tech companies?Guests: Dame Wendy Hall, Regius Professor of Computer Science and Director of the Web Science Institute at the University of Southampton. Eden Zoller, Chief Analyst in Applied AI, Omdia. Professor Neil Lawrence, the DeepMind Professor of Machine Learning at University of Cambridge and author of The Atomic Human Jeremy Kahn, AI Editor at Fortune magazine and author of Mastering AI: A survival guide to our superpowered future. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Nathan Gower Production coordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump’s fury with China shows no sign of abating. High tariffs - first imposed by the US but now on both sides - are giving way to a very real trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. China’s President Xi Jinping is refusing to blink - so far - and in the past week he's been on the road in South East Asia, visiting Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia. Where this goes now depends in large part on China's calculations about the capacity and determination of both sides to endure a trade war. So what cards does China hold ? And what are the implications for China's own economy and for the rest of us?Guests: Damien Ma, Economist, Kellogg School of Management, Chicago Rana Mitter, ST Lee Chair in US-Asia Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School Isabel Hilton, visiting Professor at the Lau China Institute, King's College, London David Henig, Director of the UK Trade Policy ProjectPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Lucy Pawle Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Max Deveson