The Business Brew

Michael Batnick, author of The Irrelevant Investor blog (https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/) and Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments (https://www.amazon.com/Big-Mistakes-Investors-Investments-Bloomberg/dp/1119366550) and Co Host of The Compound and Friends (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-compound-and-friends/id1456467014 for Apple and https://open.spotify.com/show/5VKsKPZUtwVylxslLie36k on Spotify) stops by The Business Brew for a quick chat. In this episode Bill and Michael discuss Michael's book, his early days breaking into finance, his early investing style, and how he looks at the world now. They also touch on some personal chit chat at the end. Please note this episode was recorded before Bill's episode with Tom Gayner. Bill talks about Tom searching for ideas on the 52 Week High list. That part of the conversation is somewhat inaccurate and you should listen to Tom's episode for clarification. This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc.  A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy.  Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc.Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial.  Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off. Detailed Show Notes 4:50 - Mark Twain as an investor 7:00 Mike's background and building an online presence 13:00 - How Mike got through a bad first job 18:00 - Dealing with emotions while investing 19:00 - How Future Proof started 21:00 - How Mike approaches The Compound and Friends 24:30 - Helping Clients 28:00 - Why people should consider buying stocks that have gone up 35:00 - Stock chit chat 37:00 - Writing Big Mistakes

Dan Zwirn, CEO and CIO of Arena Investors, stops by The Business Brew to discuss his investing strategy.  Arena Investors, LP is a registered investment advisor that originates investments (generally below $50 million) with borrowers and other counterparties who need access to financing and are otherwise not able to access conventional sources.  They have complete mandate flexibility across industry, product, and geography.    In Dan's words, "The real beauty of our approach, to me, is that there’s no ceiling on the creativity we can use to shape alignment for our clients, our partners and ourselves. If someone needs capital and there’s any way to do it that makes sense for all parties, we will find that way." Bill enjoyed this conversation very much and hopes you will as well.    Arena's Website: https://www.arenaco.com Dan's Investor Letter: https://www.arenaco.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Arena_Investors_Letter_YE_2022.pdf    Dan's Official Bio: https://www.arenaco.com/team/daniel-zwirn/ This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc.  A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy.  Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc.Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial.  Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off. Detailed Show Notes   What Arena does - 3:30  How big money invests at times - 6:30  Process oriented vs. security selection - 9:30  Financial Products vs. Investment Products - 13:10  Why Arena has invested in servicing - 19:30  The incentives to not see what is going on - 22:10  Where are we in a credit/business/fiscal cycle - 25:00  How Arena thinks about opportunity - 32:30  How Arena thinks about LTVs - 39:05  "We are at a casino and there has never been more gamblers" - 44:00  Are defaults bad? - 48:00  Does diversification solve all problems? 52:30  A CLO discussion - 56:50  What is going on with the job market - 1:03:30

Tom Gayner stops by The Business Brew to discuss a number of things. You can see the detailed show notes for specifics, below the stratosphere.io sponsor copy. In summation, Bill has wanted to interview Tom for a long time but didn’t know how to make the interview unique. We think this interview covers some topics Tom has not discussed elsewhere. Please consider attending Markel’s annual meeting. On Wednesday, May 17th, from 9-10:30 the good folks at Robotti and Co. are hosting an investor panel. There will be 8-12 “best ideas” presented. The Markel annual meeting will follow that event. Food, music, and beer will follow the Markel annual meeting. We hope you enjoy this podcast episode. This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc.  A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy.  Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc. Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial.  Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off. Thank you to the team at thepodcastconsultant.com for producing the show. Detailed Show Notes - 5:00 – The goal of the Markel annual event 7:30 – Tom’s background 9:35 – Blue capital and orange capital 17:05 – Creating dealflow and how long that takes 20:10 – Learning how to delegate 24:55 – What happened with the ILS transactions 33:20 – Searching New Highs and New Lows 38:40 – How investing at Markel does or does not impact Tom’s investing style 34:20 – The intertwining of Berkshire, Markel, and The Davis Funds 43:50 – The importance of relationships 48:40 – The Big Lebowski 49:10 – What traveling to India has taught Tom 56:25 – Decisions in March 2020 and how being at Markel impacted Tom 1:02:20 – How was the transition from Co-CEO to CEO 1:05:40 – How to be a deserving spouse Book Mention: The Way We Live Now https://www.amazon.com/Way-Live-Now-Penguin-Classics/dp/0140433929/ref=asc_df_0140433929/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=475771750252&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=16689022937612321338&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9011844&hvtargid=pla-469518675534&psc=1

Adam Wyden, founder of ADW Capital, stops by The Business Brew to share his investing philosophy, discuss some ideas, and talk about lessons learned.  ADW is a concentrated, long biased investment partnership founded in 2010.  In this episode Adam cautions against idol worship, talks about how he monitors positions and companies, shares his thoughts on management character, and much more.  Bill's favorite line from this episode is "Invest with people that have more to lose than you do." We hope you enjoy the show. This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc.  A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy.  Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc. Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial.  Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off. Thank you to the team at thepodcastconsultant.com for producing the show. Detailed Show Notes - 8:00 – Meeting Joel Greenblatt 14:45 – Lessons from Fiat 22:30 – How Ferrari could grow faster 30:30 – Adam’s background as an investor 40:40 – Pivoting to better businesses 43:00 – Being proud of admitting mistakes quickly 44:30 – Takeaways from 2022 48:00 – Where to hunt 51:50 – What is the etymology of a return? 54:00 – Monitoring a position over time 59:30 – Watch out for idol worship 1:10:00 – The biggest risk is (a) investing with sociopaths and (b) becoming one 1:18:15 – Further discussion about APi Group 1:30:30 – The comfort of owning assets with honorable managers

Arnaud Cosserat, CEO of Comgest, and Rick Mercado, PM at Comgest stop by The Business Brew to discuss quality growth investing.  Comgest is an independent, international asset management group, which since its creation in 1985, has pursued a long-term ‘Quality Growth’ and responsible investment style. Arnaud is a long-standing Analyst and Portfolio Manager specialising in European equities. He started his career in 1989 as an Analyst at Banque Paribas, before joining Société de Bourse Oddo and then Generali as a Portfolio Manager. He holds a Master of Science degree from the ESSEC business school (France) and is a member of the French Society of Financial Analysts (SFAF, Société Française des Analystes Financiers). Before joining Comgest, Rick worked in London as a Portfolio Manager responsible for a North American equities fund with USS Investment Management and prior to that, as a Global Equities Portfolio Manager with F&C Investments. From 2001-2008 he worked in Australia, with Capital Partners as an Investment Analyst and with AMP Capital Investors as an Investment Strategist. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Mathematics and a Bachelor of Commerce in Finance from the University of New South Wales. He is also a CFA® charterholder. This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc.  A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy.  Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc. Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial.  Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off. Big shoutout to @mathewpassy and the team at The Podcast Consultant. Detailed Show Notes: 4:10 - Comgest's philosophy and focus on culture 8:10 - Fighting the ABCs (arrogance, bureaucracy, and complacency) of decay 12:05 - How to appraise culture Paper cited https://hbr.org/1996/11/what-holds-the-modern-company-together 18:48 - Handicapping quality among high quality companies 24:05 - How does Comgest consider valuation risk of the portfolio? 33:35 - Comgest's 80/20 rule and how they hold companies with higher valuations 39:20 - Why recessions are great from an investment perspective 46:20 - What inflation might do to quality companies 53:30 - When to exit an investment (and how to stay in) 1:00:00 - How macro events impact Comgest's analysis

Randy Baron, lead Portfolio Manager for Pinnacle Associates Ltd's various international products, joins The Business Brew to discuss his investing philosophy.  Randy is best known for international value investing and for publicly discussing Amyris.  Amyris is an unprofitable company with a CEO that has a controversial reputation.  But, it is a very interesting company backed by some very real investors. Bill and Randy have spoken a few times over the past 2 years and Bill likes how Randy looks at the world.  Bill was also curious about Amyris and how Randy's public support of the company has or has not influenced Randy's analysis.  Randy is open and transparent on this podcast and it is a very entertaining, and informative, listen.  We hope you enjoy. Randy's official bio can be found at https://www.pinnacle-associates.com/team/randolph-baron This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc.  A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy.  Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc. Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial.  Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off. Detailed Show Notes: 4:15 - Intro 10:15 - Long term investing and international valuations 15:10 - Why US companies are listing in the UK 19:25 - What is Wandisco 22:25 - Randy’s idea of where returns will come from 23:50 - A discussion on Amyris 36:23 - A socially responsible investing tangent 38:23 - Back to Amyris 43:43 - Why every CEO should promote their stock 45:23 - When the price of a stock price matters 49:33 - Why explaining why you own something is important to investors 57:23 - How to act 1:05:20 - Renalytix; potentially solving a big problem 1:09:20 - Sizing early stage bets 1:11:30 - Looking to EM for cheap, good ideas

Whit Clay stops by The Business Brew to discuss his role in the financial ecosystem.  Whit sits at the intersection of investor relations and public relations.  He works with a wide variety of companies.  We hope you enjoy the conversation! Whit Clay is a Co-Chief Executive Officer with Sloane & Company and has been with the firm for more than 21 years. Beyond day-to-day leadership and management of the firm, he leads its financial and crisis communications practice with a focus across multiple sectors and clients. Whit has worked on complex transactions, mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, litigation and numerous other special situations. He provides strategic counsel to the C-suite and taps his deep relationships with the media, business and financial community to achieve successful outcomes. Clients of note across a range of industries include: Archer Aviation, Bloom Energy, Centrus Energy, Fortis, Francisco Partners, IMAX, Liberty Media, NOVA Infrastructure, Paladin Capital and Stagwell, Inc. among others. Whit joined Sloane & Company in 1999 after more than three years working with Edelman Financial Worldwide, the financial communications and investor relations division of Edelman Public Relations Worldwide. Prior to that, he worked in Washington, DC for Capitoline, the U.S. Senate Sergeant-at-Arms and the American Trucking Associations. This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc.  A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy.  Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc. Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial.  Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off. Detailed Show Notes (Time Stamps) 2:45  - What is Sloane & Company? 4:04 – How much does narrative matter over the intermediate term? 6:30 – How management teams can create value through messaging 13:15 – How 5 year projections can cause value destruction 20:00 – What is Whit’s role in the financial ecosystem 22:20 – Whit’s background 29:08 – Whit takes some career risk in the late 90s 37:30 – What happened to Sloan’s client mix in 07-08 40:18 – Do CEOs know when bubbles are occurring or do they get just as caught up as the rest of us?  And, what traits make CEOs good at navigating bubbles? 50:30 – Which clients are good matches for Slone & Company 56:00 – How has social media influenced corporate communications? 1:06:00 – How has being exposed to CEOs rubbed off on Whit as a leader? 1:10:00 – Sloane & Company’s values

Will Thomson stops by The Business Brew to discuss his approach to real asset investing.  Will focuses on companies that happen to produce commodities and/or real assets.  That said, he is looking to exploit company/project specific opportunities rather than making commodity calls.  In this episode, he describes hi s process and explains how an investor could use publicly disclosed information to see a company's business plan (See: a 4301 document in Canada).  Will is the Founder and Managing Partner of Massif Capital, LLC. He has experience in private equity and credit/political risk insurance, in addition to having served as a strategic and economic adviser to NATO/ISAF in Afghanistan. Before starting Massif Capital, Will worked in the New York office of Chaucer, a Lloyd’s of London insurance syndicate, serving as the co-portfolio manager for a $750 million portfolio of credit and political risk insurance policies. He is a Graduate of Trinity College and holds a Masters in Government from Harvard University. This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io. Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc. A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy. Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc. Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial. Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off. Detailed Show Notes: 5:00 - Will's take on oil 8:00 - What is the Lassonde Curve  11:38 - How a filing can help an investor underwrite mining companies. 14:00 - How Will thinks of comparing his DCF to market prices  15:00 - Will discusses how he thinks about investing   19:50 - How will thinks about placing commodity bets on equities 22:00 - The risk reward of majors vs minors in mining 27:50 - "Are you buying well or are you buying good things?" 31:00 - A discussion about Lithium Americas 36:10 - Don't fall in love with the assets 40:33 - The difference between processed commodities and depleting commodities and what it means for margins 45:14 - Some Inflation Reduction Act discussion 51:00 - Sometimes change creates opportunities in the things that don't change 1:05:00 - Chesterson's fence and then discussion

Thomas Ricketts, CFA, joins the pod to discuss his investment philosophy.  This episode focuses on an investment style that, according to Bill's perception, seeks to identify change and innovation before the market identifies it.  Bill was initially a little skeptical of doing an "innovation episode" given how the term has been used in the financial community.  However, after diligencing Tom, Bill felt comfortable having Tom on the pod.  This conversation adds value to The Business Brew library.  Thank you to Tom for joining the show! This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc.  A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy.  Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc. Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial.  Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off. Tom's Bio Thomas Ricketts, CFA, founder of Evolutionary Tree Capital Management (see https://evolutionarytree.com), serves as Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager, and Research Analyst. Over his 27-year investment career, he developed significant expertise in portfolio management, investment research, and executive management. Prior to founding Evolutionary Tree, Mr. Ricketts was a Sr. Portfolio Manager on Sands Capital’s flagship Select Growth strategy, a $20+ billion concentrated strategy of high-quality, sustainable growth businesses. Mr. Ricketts was one of the longest-tenured investment professionals at Sands Capital. Over the years, he contributed to building and leading the research team and attracting and retaining a broad client base of institutional and high-net-worth clients. Mr. Ricketts joined Sands Capital in 1994 as the Assistant to the President. He worked closely with founder Frank Sands, Sr. during the startup phase and early years of the firm, helping to grow the firm from less than $100 million in assets under management to approximately $40 billion in assets 22 years later. In 2008, Mr. Ricketts assumed the role of Sr. Portfolio Manager on the Sands US Large-Cap Growth strategy, working as a Co-PM to oversee the $20 billion strategy, and was a decision maker on that strategy for eight years.  Detailed Show Notes The paper Tom mentions can be found here. 5:00 - Background 13:00 - Valuation as part of the process 18:00 - 2022's biotech opportunity 20:50 - Maintenance vs. growth spend 29:20 - nCino as an example 34:00 - Why Salesforce has an incentive not to push too hard with Force.com 39:00 - Ingredients of a successful investment 52:20 - Avoiding hype 59:30 - Risk Reducers 1:13:50 - Why to exit before maturity 1:18:52 - Lessons from Frank Sands (bet best ideas, quality will out itself eventually, invest in solutions, think long term, look for long term growth in earnings power)

Henry Reardon, aka @integrity4mkts on Twitter, joins the podcast to discuss his investment philosophy. The conversation starts by discussing his Carvana short thesis then goes into his general investing philosophy. The conversation is a bit shorter than normal but packs a punch. This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc.  A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy.  Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc. Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial.  Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off.

Jake Taylor stops by The Business Brew to discuss his new product Journalytic.  Journalytic is a software designed to help investors improve their process and decision making.  Clear thinking and decision making has been a passion of Jake’s for a very long time.  Now, he is releasing the culmination of years of hard work to us, the public, FOR FREE.  You can sign up at https://journalytic.com/. This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a web based terminal that has financial data, KPIs, links to filings, hedge fund letters, etc.  A key differentiator is Stratosphere.io’s segment data and KPIs, which are triple checked for accuracy.  Stratosphere saves users time, enables easy comparisons between companies, and offers company specific metrics such as subscriber counts, numbers of locations, etc. Head over to Stratosphere.io for a free trial.  Should you want to sign up for a paid offering please use the promo code BREW for 15% off. Detailed Show Notes 4:30 – What is Journalytic 8:40 – What you need to get the most out of Journalytic 17:30 – Getting reps and calibrating 21:00 – How is Journalytic encrypted 26:00 – You can control process 29:00 – Why Jake wants feedback 38:30 – When you write you cannot rewrite what you were thinking 42:00 – Monitoring position sizing and whether it helps 46:30 – The End of The World is Just The Beginning Chit Chat

Bob stops by The Business Brew to discuss his early career, what he has learned over his career, investing in cyclical businesses/industries, and his biggest investment "loser."  This conversation is filled with good lessons and we hope you enjoy. Robert Robotti is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Robotti & Company. Prior to forming Robotti & Company, Incorporated in 1983, Bob was a vice president and shareholder of Gabelli & Company, Inc. He worked in public accounting before coming to Wall Street and is currently an inactive CPA. Bob holds a BS from Bucknell University and an MBA in Accounting from Pace University. Some of Bob's areas of coverage include Special Situations, Energy Industry and Home Building. Bob is the principal of the managing member or general partner of several investment vehicles. Bob currently serves on the Board of Directors of a NYSE-listed real estate company, AMREP Corporation, located in Germantown, PA; as Chairman of the Board of Directors of Pulse Seismic Inc., a seismic data licensing business located in Calgary, Alberta; as an Independent Director of PrairieSky Royalty, a Toronto Stock Exchange listed company located in Calgary, Alberta, having one of the largest portfolios of sub-surface mineral rights in western Canada; as a recently elected Director of NYSE-listed Tidewater, Inc. which owns and operates one of the largest fleets of OSVs (Offshore Support Vessels) in the industry; and was previously on the Board of Directors of BMC Building Materials Holding Corporation, prior to the completion of its merger with Stock Building Supply Holdings, Inc. on December 1, 2015; and Bob had served on the Board of Panhandle Oil & Gas Company, a NYSE-listed diversified mineral company located in Oklahoma City through May 1, 2020. In addition, he serves on the Boards of many non-profit organizations where he generously donates his time and expertise. Previously, Bob was a member of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Advisory Committee on Smaller Public Companies, established to examine the impact of Sarbanes-Oxley Act and other aspects of the federal securities law. This episode is sponsored by Stratosphere.io.  Stratosphere.io is a fantastic web based research terminal for company specific metrics like KPIs and segment revenues.  Head over to Stratosphere.io to try the product for free OR use the promo code BREW for 15% off Stratosphere's premium product. Detailed Show Notes Below: 3:20 - Bob’s early career 6:35 - How Bob ended up as CFO of Gabelli and Company 10:25 - Bob’s evolution as an investor 14:25 - How tough times create better businesses and Builder’s FirstSource discussion 18:20 - Holding equities and Bob’s biggest loser 29:50 - Why earnings drive liquidity 31:20 - How Bob implements his takeaways from his biggest loser 33:20 - Why Bob got excited about the Revenge of the Old Economy in 2020 35:20 - The case for Olin Corp 43:50 - How Bob’s “margin of safety” comes from his portfolio company’s asset bases 45:50 - Bob’s energy outlook; this is an around the world oil discussion that lasts ~11 minutes 1:02:20 - Why reshoring makes sense 1:04:30 - Did Volker really succeed? 1:05:20 - Why China is no longer deflationary 1:09:20 - The nuance of selling 1:11:20 - The potential perils of linear thinking

Cullen Roche is the Founder of Discipline Funds. Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory and asset management firm. Prior to establishing his own business, Mr. Roche founded his own investment partnership in 2005 after working at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management where he helped oversee $500MM+ in assets under management. During the the 7 years running the partnership he was able to guide the small business to high risk adjusted returns with no negative full year returns during one of the most turbulent periods in stock market history. Mr. Roche's primary areas of expertise include global macro portfolio construction, quantitative risk management, behavioral finance and monetary theory. He is regularly cited in the Wall Street Journal, on CNBC and in the Financial Times. Mr. Roche is a Georgetown University alumnus, growing up in the DC area and now living in San Diego, California with his fiancée Erica and their problem child, Cal, an Australian Shepherd. You can find Cullen's bio here: https://www.pragcap.com/meet-cullen-roche/ Detailed Show Notes: 1:34 - The fully loaded cost of housing 4:23 - Japanese real estate and what it may mean for real estate in the US 5:54 - Housing as a central component not just to the economy, but to everyone’s balance sheet 8:16 - Housing in other countries whose Central Banks are more aggressive 16:32 - How consumers act in the beginning of economic slowdowns 17:43 - The Fed is worryied about the short term inflation rate 20:41 - The likelihood or more fiscal stimulus in a big downturn 23:08 - How banking operates in panics 32:33 - How Quantitative Easing works 47:36 - The Buffett approach in investing 52:40 - Focusing on investor behavior 54:07 - The inter-temporal (mismatched time horizons) conundrum 1:02:39 - Behavioral problems in a 60/40 portfolio 1:06:17 - Thoughts on diversification 1:15:20 - The biggest benefit of understanding macro finance

Craig Moffett has covered the telecommunications industry – first as a management consultant and later as a Wall Street analyst – for more than thirty years. He has been elected to Institutional Investor Magazine’s All-American Research Team in the U.S. Telecom and/or Cable & Satellite sectors on seventeen separate occasions, including nine separate appearances as the #1 analyst in America in either U.S. Telecom and/or Cable & Satellite. Prior to founding MoffettNathanson, Mr. Moffett spent more than ten years at Sanford Bernstein & Co., LLC as a senior research analyst. He was previously the President and founder of the e-commerce business at Sotheby’s Holdings, the venerable auction house, where, in 1999, he led Sothebys.com to what was then the highest first year sales of any consumer website ever launched. Mr. Moffett spent more than eleven years at The Boston Consulting Group, where he was a Partner and Vice President specializing in telecommunications. He was the leader of BCG’s global Telecommunications practice from 1996 to 1999. While at BCG, he led client initiatives in the U.S. local, long distance, and wireless sectors, in both consumer and commercial services, and advised companies outside the U.S. in Europe, Latin America, and Asia. Mr. Moffett graduated from Harvard Business School with Honors in 1989. He received a BA from Brown University, where he was magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa, in 1984. Detailed Show Notes - 5:41 - Why Silicon Valley Bank is a good fit for MoffettNathanson 6:50 - Why telecom is a hard business 7:40 - The history of US telecom 10:10 - How cable incubated an industry under AT&T/telecom's business 15:52 - How does cable compete with fiber going forward? 17:47 - High splits, node splits, who gives a split? 22:50 - Cable strategy and why high splits are the current strategy 29:09 - Wireless vs. broadband going forward 35:00 - The physics of wireless 46:00 - Verizon's big strategic decision was correct but implementation left something lacking 51:10 - Cable's wireless offering and how it fits into the competitive set 58:44 - What does broadband's growth runway look like? 1:03:45 - How do fiber overbuilders factor into the future? 1:08:00 - The fiber bubble will burst.  Then some Altice discussion.

Mark started his professional work life as a consultant with Accenture, where he helped clients for 14 years. He founded his advisory business in 2005, and in 2022 joined Journey Strategic wealth through a merger of his firm with Journey. Prior to graduating from university, he was an auto mechanic, was in the auto parts industry, and spent time as a retail store manager. Mark’s focus has always been either providing advice or fixing things. What drives Mark is helping others reach their goals. Mark believes both financial freedom and fun can occur concurrently. You will find that he has an active (sometimes too active!) sense of humor. He’s quite proud that his teammates Angela and Melissa have been with him for 14 and 12 years and will do everything possible to make sure Danielle stays “forever”, as well. He’s a little nutty about college basketball, golf, and several other sports. In addition, he loves taking beach and golf trips with his family and is an avid reader. Mark holds an Accounting degree from Virginia Commonwealth University as well as the CFP® and RICP® designations. Thank you to @mathewpassy (on Twitter) for the show production. Please leave us a rating in your favorite podcast player! Show Notes: 6:00 - Mark's background 17:30 - Embrace your strengths and weaknesses 22:30 - Good moments coming from scary times 27:30 - Starting a business from a passion 29:00 - Building teams 34:00 - Mark's approach to advising 37:24 - Where Mark thinks we are relative to history 46:50 - The power of checks and balances 50:45 - Finding and retaining employees 58:30 - Thinking about planning for aging 1:10:00 - Why you need to get your Power of Attorney documents done! 1:13:00 - Talking to the older member of your family about the aging process

Matt Cochrane (@Matt_Cochrane7 on Twitter) stops by The Business Brew to discuss his investment philosophy, how it’s evolved over the past few years, Big Tech, and more. Matt is a police officer with a passion for investing. He began his investment education by studying The Motley Fool discussion boards. Bill and Matt catch up regularly and Bill always enjoys chatting with Matt. This week they decided to record one of those conversations. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

This episode features Alex Morris of TSOH Investment Research.  You can find his Substack at https://substack.com/profile/10489671-the-science-of-hitting.  In this episode, Alex and Bill have a casual conversation; mostly about media and cable. Through the conversation you will hear how Alex thinks about partnering with companies and management teams for the long term.  You will also hear how Alex thinks about competitive positions and strategic decision making. Alex is a wonderful person that is sharing his investment journey publicly.  We hope you enjoy the conversation and, should you decide to subscribe, enjoy his research as well. Thank you to @mathewpassy (on Twitter) for the show production. Please leave us a rating in your favorite podcast player!

Daniel Needham, CFA, stops by The Business Brew for a wide ranging discussion. Daniel is a wealth of knowledge. He is president of Morningstar’s Wealth Management Solutions, which includes software and aggregation capabilities from Morningstar Office and ByAllAccounts, and the individual investor experience across Morningstar.com, and Morningstar Investment Management.After the recent acquisition, he also oversees the U.K. and international business of Praemium and their core products, which were re-branded to Morningstar Wealth Platform and Wealthcraft, a Morningstar company.Prior to his current role, Needham served as president and global chief investment officer since 2015 for Morningstar’s Investment Management group, a unit of Morningstar, Inc., that provides managed portfolio services, retirement, and investment advisory for financial institutions, plan sponsors, and advisors through investment management entities around the world.In 2013, Needham stepped into the global chief investment officer role for the Investment Management group, and he also assumed responsibility for Morningstar’s investment management operations in Europe. Previously, Needham was chief investment officer and managing director for Investment Management in Asia-Pacific, including Ibbotson Associates Australia, where he led the group’s business and investment activities in the region.Needham joined Morningstar in 2009 through the company’s acquisition of Intech Pty Ltd., where he served as chief investment officer. He also held other investment roles including analyst, portfolio manager, and head of multi-strategy. Before joining Intech in 2002, Needham worked for Zurich Financial Services in Sydney. Needham holds a bachelor’s degree in commerce from the University of Sydney, where he majored in finance and economics.He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation and is an interested trustee for the Morningstar Funds Trust.Supplemental Information -Following the podcast recording, Mr. Needham sent the following information to Bill (shared with permission):Here are some useful books to learn more about MMT and Post-Keynesian economics. It pays to tread carefully with all this stuff given the political leaning of the respective economic schools of thought.Soft Currency Economics – Warren Mosler – provides a lens to why the system is different for certain governments post the gold standardJohn Maynard Keynes – Hyman Minsky – one of the best early critiques of the modern economic consensus that dominates central banks and government treasuries

Kyle Mowery, Founder & Portfolio Manager at GrizzlyRock Capital stops by The Business Brew to discuss his investment philosophy.  Kyle is a traditional value investor that tends to focus on smaller, cyclical companies.  In this episode he talks about why he fishes in that pond, where he has found his biggest winners, how he thinks about investing, and much more.  GrizzlyRock does very deep due diligence and Bill thinks highly of their work. We hope you enjoy the conversation! You can find Kyle’s Orion Engineered Carbons conversation with Andrew Walker at https://open.spotify.com/episode/7xmapUv85wtAoHpGlcMxmP?si=3wZXGogJT5-zbU5aJxv1NA or https://yetanothervalueblog.com/podcast Thank you to @mathewpassy (on Twitter) for the show production. Please leave us a rating in your favorite podcast player! Detailed Show Notes: 4:30 – Kyle’s view on the macro environment 7:00 – What Kyle learned in 2008 8:00 – What working in mezzanine debt did for Kyle’s career 10:50 – A case against microcaps 12:00 – Due diligence 14:50 – What was interesting about Darling International? 19:50 – What GrizzlyRock sees in OEC 26:05 – The merits of running a long/short strategy 29:15 – Chicago chit chat 35:15 – Back to investment discussion 36:30 – Why Kyle prefers more of a deep value philosophy 40:57 – What got Kyle interested in Orion Engineered Carbons? 51:14 – What is CoVest Select 1:01:10 – Thoughts on starting a fund

Marc Cohodes' (@AlderLaneEggs on Twitter) LinkedIn profile describes him as the "Head Bull Fighter at Alder Lane Farm."  He is a well known short seller, but in this episode he discusses how he thinks about his long positions more than he discusses short selling.  Marc is highly entertaining, informed by deep due diligence, and is not afraid to say what is on his mind. We hope you enjoy this episode. Detailed Show Notes: 2:00 – Marc discusses scuttlebutt 7:00 – The importance of getting it right and why Marc runs a concentrated portfolio 8:50 – How Marc deals with emotions with concentrated bets 13:20 – Dealing with talking publicly about ideas 18:05 – What was Marc doing with the AMC “apes” 29:00 – Marc’s thoughts on how the market currently works (or doesn’t work) 38:20 – What Marc sees in TZero 43:50 – Thoughts on position sizing and “having a seat at the table” 50:00 – Discussion about Camping World 58:20 – Enovix conversation 1:09:30 – Does Marc worry about being wrong?