The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd unpacks a moment of foreign-policy whiplash as Donald Trump appears to ease off threats against Iran while simultaneously escalating his pressure campaign on Greenland—doubling down after meetings with Danish officials and even floating the idea of holding NATO hostage to get his way. The episode examines why Trump is unlikely to move militarily against Greenland, why Greenlanders are growing more defiant, and how this approach risks a serious rupture with Europe. From there, the conversation widens to a bigger question: what is America’s role in the world now that consensus has collapsed? With China as a peer competitor, alliances under strain, free trade weaponized at home, and isolationism creating dangerous vacuums, the U.S. is operating without a coherent grand strategy even as allies quietly hedge their bets. The second half turns inward, focusing on immigration and the politics of ICE. Drawing lessons from past messaging failures like “defund the police,” Chuck argues Democrats shouldn’t fall into the “abolish ICE” trap but instead run on reform—rethinking leadership, recruiting, and training that’s been slashed from months to weeks. The takeaway is blunt: ICE isn’t going away, the agency will remain a political wedge, and the real question for both parties is who’s in charge of it—and what kind of power they’re willing to wield at home and abroad. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and gets a few sports rants off his chest.  Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the cod   Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Trump seemingly backing off threats to strike Iran 02:00 Trump meets with Danish & Greenland officials, then doubles down 03:30 Trump threatens to hold NATO hostage in exchange for Greenland 05:00 Greenlanders are more defiant in the face of Trump’s threats 05:30 Trump’s threats could risk severing U.S. ties with Europe 06:15 Unlikely Trump will take Greenland militarily 06:45 Everything Trump is doing now is bad politics 08:15 Latin American exiles in south Florida create a feedback loop for Trump 09:00 What should be America’s role in the world? 10:45 Trump is not and has never been a multilateralist 11:30 Trump doesn’t care about NATO or see Russia as a threat 12:15 Consensus on America’s role in the world has collapsed 13:15 Free trade has been weaponized domestically in America 14:15 Domestic exhaustion in America with leadership rule 15:30 America is operating without a grand foreign policy strategy 16:30 The “primacy” strategy doesn’t apply now that China is a peer competitor 17:30 The rules based order hasn’t tamed China, Russia or Iran 18:15 Isolationism creates security vacuums that rarely stay empty 19:00 Nationalism assumes you can separate from the rest of the world 19:15 Trumpism is a mix of all of the above, but up to Trump’s whims 21:15 China is a competitor & nothing the U.S. does can change that 22:15 Trump wants to remake Venezuelan, Iranian and Cuban society 23:15 U.S. still most powerful country and China couldn’t create global alliance 25:45 Free trade, security & innovation trump protectionism 27:45 The Indo-Pacific will be the theatre of great power competition 28:30 America doesn’t get to choose whether it shapes the world 29:15 U.S. allies are hedging 30:00 Presidential candidates need to lay out strategy for US role in the world 33:00 Memo argues Democrats shouldn't fall for the “Abolish ICE” messaging 34:30 ICE training has been reduced from 5 months to 6 weeks 35:15 Dems should run on plan to reform and retrain ICE 36:30 Democrats need to learn from the “defund the police” mistake 38:30 The issue isn’t ICE, it’s who’s in charge of it & their recruiting 40:00 If you get rid of ICE you’ll need a similar agency to replace it 40:45 ICE will become a wedge issue in primary elections 46:30 Iran clears airspace, U.S. attack imminent? 48:00 Ask Chuck 48:15 Why do you think Mississippi could become politically competitive? 51:45 ICE’s actions in Minnesota don’t feel like training issues? 54:15 If Dems win both chambers what are the chances of martial law? 1:01:15 If Europe put a blockade around Greenland, would we still attack? 1:05:30 Why do Americans find the far-left more repugnant than the far-right? 1:10:00 Concerned the market shrugged at threats to Fed independence? 1:15:00 Sports updateSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unpacks a moment of foreign-policy whiplash as Donald Trump appears to ease off threats against Iran while simultaneously escalating his pressure campaign on Greenland—doubling down after meetings with Danish officials and even floating the idea of holding NATO hostage to get his way. The episode examines why Trump is unlikely to move militarily against Greenland, why Greenlanders are growing more defiant, and how this approach risks a serious rupture with Europe. From there, the conversation widens to a bigger question: what is America’s role in the world now that consensus has collapsed? With China as a peer competitor, alliances under strain, free trade weaponized at home, and isolationism creating dangerous vacuums, the U.S. is operating without a coherent grand strategy even as allies quietly hedge their bets. The second half turns inward, focusing on immigration and the politics of ICE. Drawing lessons from past messaging failures like “defund the police,” Chuck argues Democrats shouldn’t fall into the “abolish ICE” trap but instead run on reform—rethinking leadership, recruiting, and training that’s been slashed from months to weeks. The takeaway is blunt: ICE isn’t going away, the agency will remain a political wedge, and the real question for both parties is who’s in charge of it—and what kind of power they’re willing to wield at home and abroad. Then, geopolitical expert and president of The Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer joins Chuck Todd for a wide-ranging, clear-eyed look at a world entering genuinely uncharted territory—where old rules no longer apply and the United States itself has become a central source of global instability. From Venezuela and Mexico to Europe and Greenland, Bremmer explains how Trump’s transactional, coercive approach is reshaping alliances, undermining collective security, and forcing other countries to adapt fast. The conversation explores why regime change remains elusive in places like Venezuela, Cuba, and Haiti; how Latin American elections are increasingly driven by domestic security; and why Europe, shaken by Trump’s unpredictability, is funding Ukraine and rethinking its own defense posture. The discussion then turns to the Middle East and beyond: the durability of the Iranian regime, the limits of U.S. military power, Saudi Arabia’s rapid modernization, and what comes next for Israel once Netanyahu exits the stage. Bremmer also assesses Trump’s surprising effectiveness in Middle East dealmaking, the long-term damage to Israel’s global standing, Russia’s tightening economic squeeze amid continued political repression, and rising far-right momentum in Europe. The episode closes with a sobering look at China, Taiwan, and whether the next few years bring deterrence—or a historic rupture. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and gets a few sports rants off his chest.  Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the cod Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Trump seemingly backing off threats to strike Iran 02:00 Trump meets with Danish & Greenland officials, then doubles down 03:30 Trump threatens to hold NATO hostage in exchange for Greenland 05:00 Greenlanders are more defiant in the face of Trump’s threats 05:30 Trump’s threats could risk severing U.S. ties with Europe 06:15 Unlikely Trump will take Greenland militarily 06:45 Everything Trump is doing now is bad politics 08:15 Latin American exiles in south Florida create a feedback loop for Trump 09:00 What should be America’s role in the world? 10:45 Trump is not and has never been a multilateralist 11:30 Trump doesn’t care about NATO or see Russia as a threat 12:15 Consensus on America’s role in the world has collapsed 13:15 Free trade has been weaponized domestically in America 14:15 Domestic exhaustion in America with leadership rule 15:30 America is operating without a grand foreign policy strategy 16:30 The “primacy” strategy doesn’t apply now that China is a peer competitor 17:30 The rules based order hasn’t tamed China, Russia or Iran 18:15 Isolationism creates security vacuums that rarely stay empty 19:00 Nationalism assumes you can separate from the rest of the world 19:15 Trumpism is a mix of all of the above, but up to Trump’s whims 21:15 China is a competitor & nothing the U.S. does can change that 22:15 Trump wants to remake Venezuelan, Iranian and Cuban society 23:15 U.S. still most powerful country and China couldn’t create global alliance 25:45 Free trade, security & innovation trump protectionism 27:45 The Indo-Pacific will be the theatre of great power competition 28:30 America doesn’t get to choose whether it shapes the world 29:15 U.S. allies are hedging 30:00 Presidential candidates need to lay out strategy for US role in the world 33:00 Memo argues Democrats shouldn't fall for the “Abolish ICE” messaging 34:30 ICE training has been reduced from 5 months to 6 weeks 35:15 Dems should run on plan to reform and retrain ICE 36:30 Democrats need to learn from the “defund the police” mistake 38:30 The issue isn’t ICE, it’s who’s in charge of it & their recruiting 40:00 If you get rid of ICE you’ll need a similar agency to replace it 40:45 ICE will become a wedge issue in primary elections 47:45 Ian Bremmer joins the Chuck ToddCast 49:00 Where we’re going… there are no roads 50:00 The middle east could be heading towards a better place 50:45 Trump gave a wake up call to Europe & others 51:30 America is the top risk to the world & center of instability 52:45 There hasn’t been regime change in Venezuela 54:00 The Venezuelan regime will behave while threatened 55:00 The Venezuelan regime has no interest in sharing power 56:30 National elections could be held in Venezuela in a year 58:00 How much will anti-Americanism affect Latin American elections? 59:15 Domestic security is the #1 voting issue in Latin America 1:02:45 Brazil’s election will be very close 1:04:15 Claudia Scheinbaum has been deft in dealing with Trump 1:05:15 Mexico has been cooperating effectively, negating potential strikes 1:06:15 Talk of strikes in Mexico has ramped up post-Venezuela 1:08:00 There’s been a huge number of political assassinations in Mexico 1:08:45 Trade relations would take a huge hit if America strikes militarily 1:09:45 There’s less urgency from Trump admin for regime change in Cuba 01:10:30 Venezuela and Mexico have been propping up the Cuban regime 1:13:00 Why haven’t we pushed harder for changes in Haiti? 1:14:15 Almost zero chance there are elections in Haiti this year 1:15:00 Chance of military invasion of Greenland is extremely low 1:15:45 A coercion campaign towards Greenland is much more likely 1:17:00 Denmark very open to negotiations addressing American concerns 1:18:15 It’d be very easy to ramp up military operation in Greenland 1:19:00 Trump is undermining the concept of collective security 1:19:45 Greenland is a legacy play for Trump 1:20:15 Trump is causing permanent damage to relationship with Europe 1:21:45 Will the Iranian regime survive the calendar year? 1:23:00 Iranian regime has large capacity to repress the population 1:23:45 Looks like the US military will target Iranian police & paramilitary 1:24:30 Nobody has ever targeted the Iranian judges that send people to die 1:25:15 Collapse of regime doesn’t feel imminent, but likely within a few years 1:26:45 Is the US military stretched thin right now? 1:27:15 What collapse of Iranian regime would mean for the region 1:28:45 Saudi Arabia is speed running a modernization & reform process 1:29:45 Any chance Bibi Netanyahu is out in Israel soon? 1:30:45 Normalization with Saudi Arabia is on the table once Bibi is out 1:31:45 The Israel/Gaza ceasefire was improbable win for Trump 1:32:15 Trump’s transactional negotiating works well in the middle east 1:34:15 Settlements expanding in west bank, that won’t be unwound 1:36:00 Nobody has done more damage to Israel’s reputation than Bibi 1:36:45 Russians giving Trump nothing in negotiations over Ukraine 1:37:15 Europeans are funding Ukraine after Trump cut them off 1:38:15 Europeans bought a veto over Trump selling out Ukraine 1:39:30 Still very little meaningful dissent inside Russia over the war 1:40:30 Russian economy is starting to take more of a hit 1:41:30 Giorgia Meloni is probably most secure leader in western Europe 1:42:45 Far right in Germany will do well in elections 1:43:15 Does China take Taiwan in 2027 & does Trump stand in the way? 1:46:15 Iran clears airspace, U.S. attack imminent? 1:47:45 Ask Chuck 1:48:00 Why do you think Mississippi could become politically competitive? 1:51:00 ICE’s actions in Minnesota don’t feel like training issues? 1:54:00 If Dems win both chambers what are the chances of martial law? 2:01:00 If Europe put a blockade around Greenland, would we still attack? 2:05:15 Why do Americans find the far-left more repugnant than the far-right? 2:09:45 Concerned the market shrugged at threats to Fed independence? 2:14:45 Sports updateSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Geopolitical expert and president of The Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer joins Chuck Todd for a wide-ranging, clear-eyed look at a world entering genuinely uncharted territory—where old rules no longer apply and the United States itself has become a central source of global instability. From Venezuela and Mexico to Europe and Greenland, Bremmer explains how Trump’s transactional, coercive approach is reshaping alliances, undermining collective security, and forcing other countries to adapt fast. The conversation explores why regime change remains elusive in places like Venezuela, Cuba, and Haiti; how Latin American elections are increasingly driven by domestic security; and why Europe, shaken by Trump’s unpredictability, is funding Ukraine and rethinking its own defense posture. The discussion then turns to the Middle East and beyond: the durability of the Iranian regime, the limits of U.S. military power, Saudi Arabia’s rapid modernization, and what comes next for Israel once Netanyahu exits the stage. Bremmer also assesses Trump’s surprising effectiveness in Middle East dealmaking, the long-term damage to Israel’s global standing, Russia’s tightening economic squeeze amid continued political repression, and rising far-right momentum in Europe. The episode closes with a sobering look at China, Taiwan, and whether the next few years bring deterrence—or a historic rupture. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the cod Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Ian Bremmer joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15 Where we’re going… there are no roads 02:15 The middle east could be heading towards a better place 03:00 Trump gave a wake up call to Europe & others 03:45 America is the top risk to the world & center of instability 05:00 There hasn’t been regime change in Venezuela 06:15 The Venezuelan regime will behave while threatened 07:15 The Venezuelan regime has no interest in sharing power 08:45 National elections could be held in Venezuela in a year 10:15 How much will anti-Americanism affect Latin American elections? 11:30 Domestic security is the #1 voting issue in Latin America 15:00 Brazil’s election will be very close 16:30 Claudia Scheinbaum has been deft in dealing with Trump 17:30 Mexico has been cooperating effectively, negating potential strikes 18:30 Talk of strikes in Mexico has ramped up post-Venezuela 20:15 There’s been a huge number of political assassinations in Mexico 21:00 Trade relations would take a huge hit if America strikes militarily 22:00 There’s less urgency from Trump admin for regime change in Cuba 22:45 Venezuela and Mexico have been propping up the Cuban regime 25:15 Why haven’t we pushed harder for changes in Haiti? 26:30 Almost zero chance there are elections in Haiti this year 27:15 Chance of military invasion of Greenland is extremely low 28:00 A coercion campaign towards Greenland is much more likely 29:15 Denmark very open to negotiations addressing American concerns 30:30 It’d be very easy to ramp up military operation in Greenland 31:15 Trump is undermining the concept of collective security 32:00 Greenland is a legacy play for Trump 32:30 Trump is causing permanent damage to relationship with Europe 34:00 Will the Iranian regime survive the calendar year? 35:15 Iranian regime has large capacity to repress the population 36:00 Looks like the US military will target Iranian police & paramilitary 36:45 Nobody has ever targeted the Iranian judges that send people to die 37:30 Collapse of regime doesn’t feel imminent, but likely within a few years 39:00 Is the US military stretched thin right now? 39:30 What collapse of Iranian regime would mean for the region 41:00 Saudi Arabia is speed running a modernization & reform process 42:00 Any chance Bibi Netanyahu is out in Israel soon? 43:00 Normalization with Saudi Arabia is on the table once Bibi is out 44:00 The Israel/Gaza ceasefire was improbable win for Trump 44:30 Trump’s transactional negotiating works well in the middle east 46:30 Settlements expanding in west bank, that won’t be unwound 48:15 Nobody has done more damage to Israel’s reputation than Bibi 49:00 Russians giving Trump nothing in negotiations over Ukraine 49:30 Europeans are funding Ukraine after Trump cut them off 50:30 Europeans bought a veto over Trump selling out Ukraine 51:45 Still very little meaningful dissent inside Russia over the war 52:45 Russian economy is starting to take more of a hit 53:45 Giorgia Meloni is probably most secure leader in western Europe 55:00 Far right in Germany will do well in elections 55:30 Does China take Taiwan in 2027 & does Trump stand in the way?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the country hurtles toward the 2026 midterms, Chuck Todd breaks down why winning in this moment may be more about margins than movements—and why messaging is about to get brutally hard. With a fragmented, exhausted electorate and a president acting emboldened despite weak political standing, Democrats face a defining choice: run as resistance to Donald Trump or position themselves as problem-solvers ready to turn the page. History suggests forward-looking messages work best, especially with independents who vote in self-interest and are tired of constant political warfare, even as Trump continues to dominate GOP primaries and sideline Congress. The conversation also looks at why Republicans’ razor-thin majority leaves them unable to govern, how Trump’s grip on the party could backfire in a general election, and why Democrats are increasingly optimistic about putting the Senate in play—with strong recruiting wins and favorable midterm math. New polling on the Renee Good shooting and ICE shows Trump-aligned tactics playing poorly outside the MAGA base, particularly with independents and women, underscoring just how volatile—and opportunity-rich—the political landscape could be heading into 2026. Then, Jon Slavet, a tech entrepreneur and Republican candidate for California governor, joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss why he's entering one of the nation's most challenging political races. Slavet argues that while national politics dominates headlines, state and local governance has far more impact on people's daily lives—yet California's local politics receives inadequate attention despite intense interest from outsiders. He advocates for radical transparency in government, criticizing the use of NDAs in taxpayer-funded projects and calling out the influence of union spending. Addressing his controversial pursuit of Trump's endorsement despite never voting for him, Slavet positions himself as someone who sees Trump as an effective disrupter but not a builder, and he aligns with the administration on housing policy, particularly prioritizing temporary shelter over California's $1 million-per-unit permanent housing approach. Running as a Republican in deep-blue California, Slavet believes the state's pleasant weather has masked serious problems affecting middle and lower-income residents while the wealthy thrive. He proposes declaring an "affordability emergency" on day one, scrapping the high-speed rail project, and using AI to root out the billions lost to waste and fraud in California's healthcare system. Slavet defends his decision to run as a Republican rather than an independent, arguing that party identification remains essential for effectiveness despite his moderate positions on social issues like same-sex marriage and abortion. He contends that polls show half of Californians would support the "right kind" of Republican, and he's betting his business success and willingness to challenge both parties' orthodoxies will resonate with voters frustrated by the state's affordability crisis and regulatory burdens on small businesses. Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 championship winning Miami Hurricanes football teams & answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.  Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:45 Messaging will be incredibly difficult in this political environment 04:15 If Dems only win house, it will be considered a partial rebuke of Trump 05:15 Trump is weak politically but acting like he has a ton of capital 06:00 Trump feels emboldened to play “Risk” with the world 06:45 Administration will likely back off investigation into Jay Powell 08:00 Talking to a fragmented and exhausted electorate will be tough 09:15 Elections are always won on the margins, not just by the base 10:30 Analysts project their preferences onto the electorate & swing voters 11:30 What is the most effective way to win elections in 2026? 12:30 Democrats will have to balance accountability vs. forward facing 14:15 “Would you work with Donald Trump?” a defining question for Dems 16:15 Dems have to decide whether they are resistance or problem solvers 18:00 History suggests forward looking messages are more effective 19:00 Most voters vote in self-interest, not for the greater good 19:45 After 10 years of Trump, the public is exhausted by politics 20:45 "Turn the page” messaging may appeal to independents 22:30 GOP primaries will be all about Trump, but cause problem in general 24:00 Trump can break ideological rules other Republicans can’t 25:00 GOP majority is so narrow they can’t really govern 25:45 Trump is increasingly uninterested in working with congress 27:15 “Vote GOP to stop impeachment” isn’t enough to woo swing voters 28:00 Growing number of R’s uncomfortable with Trump’s actions 28:45 Dems got a huge recruiting victory in Alaska with Mary Peltola 30:30 Peltola puts Alaska in play, making senate control more possible 31:45 Sherrod Brown has won in midterm years in Ohio 33:15 Democrats much further along in putting senate in play 34:30 Historically the party out of power picks up 4 seats, Dems need 4 36:30 Majority of Americans say Renee Good shooting not justified 37:15 Majority of independents & women say it was unjustified 38:15 82% of respondents were aware of the Renee Good shooting 39:15 57% disapprove of ICE 40:30 ICE + Minneapolis not playing well outside MAGA base 41:30 Kristi Noem is an easy scapegoat, could get dumped 49:00 Jon Slavet joins the Chuck ToddCast 50:45 Why enter politics and run for governor of California? 52:30 It’s fraught & dangerous to run for office in this political climate 53:15 National politics get attention, state & local more impactful 54:45 Serious lack of attention to local politics in California 56:00 There’s a ton of interest in California from people outside it 57:15 NDA’s should not be allowed in taxpayer funded projects 58:45 Major government discussions need more transparency in CA 59:15 Unions raise $1B in CA and spend $300 on political donations 1:00:00 Why seek Trump’s endorsement after not voting for him 3x? 1:01:15 Trump is good as a disrupter but not as a builder 1:02:00 Where do you agree with Trump on policy? 1:02:30 HUD’s new policy prioritizes temporary, not permanent housing 1:03:30 Permanent housing for homeless costs $1M per unit in CA 1:05:00 The priority should be getting homeless into temp housing ASAP 1:06:00 Could you have been as successful in a state other than CA? 1:07:15 California’s great weather masks many of its problems 1:08:30 Tech doesn’t suffer from regulatory issues like other industries 1:09:15 Middle & lower income Californians are suffering, rich doing great 1:11:30 Half of California’s work for small businesses that are overtaxed 1:14:00 Where will you find the money to fund your proposals? 1:14:30 California should scrap the high speed rail to nowhere 1:15:30 Jon would declare an affordability emergency on day 1 1:17:00 California’s healthcare costs $160B, Medicare fraud is 10–15% 1:18:30 AI can be used to root out waste, fraud and abuse in state budget 1:20:00 Californians pay huge taxes on fuel & energy 1:21:30 Why run as a Republican and not an independent? 1:23:00 We should be way beyond the same-sex marriage debate 1:24:00 Abortion is settled law in California 1:25:30 Why Jon was against Prop 50 in California 1:26:30 Gerrymandering is terrible for democracy 1:28:15 Running as independent isn’t effective, people identify w/ parties 1:29:45 The race will be a Trump referendum, how does a Republican win? 1:31:30 Polls show half of CA will vote for the “right kind” of Republican 1:32:45 CA has had plenty of billionaires run & fail to win elections 1:35:00 Has Silicon Valley been regulated enough? 1:36:15 AI boom has been critical for San Francisco’s comeback 1:37:45 Would you ban social media for kids under 16? 1:39:30 Would you ban phones in schools? 1:40:15 How do you convince CA voters the wealth tax is a bad idea? 1:42:15 How would you work in a bipartisan manner with Dem state house? 1:45:00 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Jon Slavet 1:45:30 There’s a lack of star power in CA governor race 1:46:15 ToddCast Top 5 Miami Hurricanes football teams if ’25 team wins title 1:49:00 #1 2001 1:51:00 #2 1987 1:52:30 #3 1993 1:54:00 #4 1983 1:55:00 #5 2025 1:58:30 Ask Chuck 1:58:45 In today’s climate would it benefit a candidate to avoid negative ads? 2:02:15 Are traditional Republicans missing a chance to push back on Trump? 2:09:15 Did Biden cater too much to the far left & hurt appeal with swing voters? 2:11:15 How is public media likely to continue on? 2:13:45 Can Democrats make Mississippi competitive? 2:19:30 Are we still capable of recognizing normalization of democratic collapse?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the country hurtles toward the 2026 midterms, Chuck Todd breaks down why winning in this moment may be more about margins than movements—and why messaging is about to get brutally hard. With a fragmented, exhausted electorate and a president acting emboldened despite weak political standing, Democrats face a defining choice: run as resistance to Donald Trump or position themselves as problem-solvers ready to turn the page. History suggests forward-looking messages work best, especially with independents who vote in self-interest and are tired of constant political warfare, even as Trump continues to dominate GOP primaries and sideline Congress. The conversation also looks at why Republicans’ razor-thin majority leaves them unable to govern, how Trump’s grip on the party could backfire in a general election, and why Democrats are increasingly optimistic about putting the Senate in play—with strong recruiting wins and favorable midterm math. New polling on the Renee Good shooting and ICE shows Trump-aligned tactics playing poorly outside the MAGA base, particularly with independents and women, underscoring just how volatile—and opportunity-rich—the political landscape could be heading into 2026. Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 championship winning Miami Hurricanes football teams & answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.  Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 1:30 Messaging will be incredibly difficult in this political environment 2:00 If Dems only win house, it will be considered a partial rebuke of Trump 3:00 Trump is weak politically but acting like he has a ton of capital 3:45 Trump feels emboldened to play “Risk” with the world 4:30 Administration will likely back off investigation into Jay Powell 5:45 Talking to a fragmented and exhausted electorate will be tough 7:00 Elections are always won on the margins, not just by the base 8:15 Analysts project their preferences onto the electorate & swing voters 9:15 What is the most effective way to win elections in 2026? 10:15 Democrats will have to balance accountability vs. forward facing 12:00 “Would you work with Donald Trump?” a defining question for Dems 14:00 Dems have to decide whether they are resistance or problem solvers 15:45 History suggests forward looking messages are more effective 16:45 Most voters vote in self-interest, not for the greater good 17:30 After 10 years of Trump, the public is exhausted by politics 18:30 “Turn the page” messaging may appeal to independents 20:15 GOP primaries will be all about Trump, but cause problem in general 21:45 Trump can break ideological rules other Republicans can’t 22:45 GOP majority is so narrow they can’t really govern 23:30 Trump is increasingly uninterested in working with congress 25:00 “Vote GOP to stop impeachment” isn’t enough to woo swing voters 25:45 Growing number of R’s uncomfortable with Trump’s actions 26:30 Dems got a huge recruiting victory in Alaska with Mary Peltola 28:15 Peltola puts Alaska in play, making senate control more possible 29:30 Sherrod Brown has won in midterm years in Ohio 31:00 Democrats much further along in putting senate in play 32:15 Historically the party out of power picks up 4 seats, Dems need 4 34:15 Majority of Americans say Renee Good shooting not justified 35:00 Majority of independents & women say it was unjustified 36:00 82% of respondents were aware of the Renee Good shooting 37:00 57% disapprove of ICE 38:15 ICE + Minneapolis not playing well outside MAGA base 39:15 Kristi Noem is an easy scapegoat, could get dumped 47:00 ToddCast Top 5 Miami Hurricanes football teams if 25’ team wins title 49:45 #1 2001 51:45 #2 1987 53:15 #3 1993 54:45 #4 1983 55:45 #5 2025 59:15 Ask Chuck 59:30 In today’s climate would it benefit a candidate to avoid negative ads? 1:03:00 Are traditional Republicans missing a chance to push back on Trump? 1:10:00 Did Biden cater too much to the far left & hurt appeal with swing voters? 1:12:00 How is public media likely to continue on? 1:14:30 Can Democrats make Mississippi competitive? 1:20:15 Are we still capable of recognizing normalization of democratic collapse?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jon Slavet, a tech entrepreneur and Republican candidate for California governor, joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss why he's entering one of the nation's most challenging political races. Slavet argues that while national politics dominates headlines, state and local governance has far more impact on people's daily lives—yet California's local politics receives inadequate attention despite intense interest from outsiders. He advocates for radical transparency in government, criticizing the use of NDAs in taxpayer-funded projects and calling out the influence of union spending. Addressing his controversial pursuit of Trump's endorsement despite never voting for him, Slavet positions himself as someone who sees Trump as an effective disrupter but not a builder, and he aligns with the administration on housing policy, particularly prioritizing temporary shelter over California's $1 million-per-unit permanent housing approach. Running as a Republican in deep-blue California, Slavet believes the state's pleasant weather has masked serious problems affecting middle and lower-income residents while the wealthy thrive. He proposes declaring an "affordability emergency" on day one, scrapping the high-speed rail project, and using AI to root out the billions lost to waste and fraud in California's healthcare system. Slavet defends his decision to run as a Republican rather than an independent, arguing that party identification remains essential for effectiveness despite his moderate positions on social issues like same-sex marriage and abortion. He contends that polls show half of Californians would support the "right kind" of Republican, and he's betting his business success and willingness to challenge both parties' orthodoxies will resonate with voters frustrated by the state's affordability crisis and regulatory burdens on small businesses. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Jon Slavet joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:45 Why enter politics and run for governor of California? 03:30 It’s fraught & dangerous to run for office in this political climate 04:15 National politics get attention, state & local more impactful 05:45 Serious lack of attention to local politics in California 07:00 There’s a ton of interest in California from people outside it 08:15 NDA’s should not be allowed in taxpayer funded projects 09:45 Major government discussions need more transparency in CA 10:15 Unions raise $1B in CA and spend $300 on political donations 11:00 Why seek Trump’s endorsement after not voting for him 3x? 12:15 Trump is good as a disrupter but not as a builder 13:00 Where do you agree with Trump on policy? 13:30 HUD’s new policy prioritizes temporary, not permanent housing 14:30 Permanent housing for homeless costs $1M per unit in CA 16:00 The priority should be getting homeless into temp housing ASAP 17:00 Could you have been as successful in a state other than CA? 18:15 California’s great weather masks many of its problems  19:30 Tech doesn’t suffer from regulatory issues like other industries 20:15 Middle & lower income California’s are suffering, rich doing great 22:30 Half of California’s work for small businesses that are overtaxed 25:00 Where will you find the money to fund your proposals? 25:30 California should scrap the high speed rail to nowhere 26:30 Jon would declare an affordability emergency on day 1 28:00 California’s healthcare costs $160B, Medicare fraud is 10-15% 29:30 AI can be used to root out waste, fraud and abuse in state budget 31:00 Californians pay huge taxes on fuel & energy 32:30 Why run as a Republican and not an independent? 34:00 We should be way beyond the same-sex marriage debate 35:00 Abortion is settled law in California  36:30 Why Jon was against Prop 50 in California 37:30 Gerrymandering is terrible for democracy 39:15 Running as independent isn’t effective, people identify w/parties 40:45 The race will be a Trump referendum, how does a Republican win? 42:30 Polls show half of CA will vote for the “right kind” of Republican 43:45 CA has had plenty of billionaires run & fail to win elections 46:00 Has Silicon Valley been regulated enough? 47:15 AI boom has been critical for San Francisco’s comeback 48:45 Would you ban social media for kids under 16? 50:30 Would you ban phones in schools? 51:15 How do you convince CA voters the wealth tax is a bad idea? 53:15 How would you work in a bipartisan manner with Dem state house?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Chuck ToddCast, Chuck Todd digs into a growing sense of unease shared across the political spectrum, as 2026 looms as a “year of living dangerously” at home and abroad. From mass migration, rising nationalism, and AI-driven economic fear to flashpoints in Venezuela, Iran, and beyond, the conversation explores why so many global and domestic headlines feel like potential tipping points. Chuck argues the world is less stable—and America more divided—under Donald Trump, whose administration he says views chaos and division as sources of power rather than problems to solve. The episode draws stark parallels between the Minneapolis ICE shooting and the Ruby Ridge standoff, examining how the rush to control narratives, the politicization of law enforcement, and the erosion of civil liberties can fracture public trust. The warning is sobering: America may ultimately be okay, but right now it’s a tinderbox—and a country that fails to protect the rights of its own citizens risks losing its moral authority everywhere else. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck Todd to break down what the numbers actually say about the U.S. economy—and why the headline optimism may be masking deeper problems. Zandi explains how upcoming tax refunds and delayed tax cuts will temporarily juice growth, even as that stimulus is entirely deficit-financed. Interest rate cuts are likely coming, but cautiously, and while AI stocks are soaring, the broader market is barely treading water. Beneath the surface, job creation has stalled, manufacturing jobs are shrinking under tariffs, and deportations aren’t translating into more employment for native-born workers as many expected. The conversation widens to a fragile global outlook, with Trump-era protectionism accelerating deglobalization and reshaping trade, housing, and labor markets. Zandi details why college-educated workers are now seeing the sharpest rise in unemployment, how AI skills will define the next generation of jobs, and why renting often makes more sense than buying right now. Looking ahead to 2026, he warns of elevated geopolitical and financial-system risks, an AI-driven stock market that could be vulnerable to a correction, GDP growth likely under 3%, and a job market that may struggle to grow at all. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson’s “Fourteen Points” speech that laid out the vision for the 20th century world order & warns that retreating from it could be devastating for both the United State & the world. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment & previews the national championship between Indiana & Miami. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:30 People on both sides of the aisle worried if we’ll be ok 07:00 2026 will be the “year of living dangerously” 07:45 We are in uncharted waters and don’t know where it’s headed 09:30 Mass migration has led to rising nationalism in USA & Europe 10:00 Globalization caused a sense of displacement 11:00 AI will create even more fear than globalization 12:15 The political response to economic anxiety has failed 14:00 We still don’t know what will happen with Venezuela 14:30 Iranian regime likely will fall in 2026 15:45 It’s clear Trump has no plan for Venezuela 17:30 Latin America is deeply skeptical of American power 19:00 Every headline feels like a tipping point 20:00 Trump could take military action against many countries 20:30 The world is less safe because Donald Trump is president 21:45 Trump admin believes division bolsters their power 23:00 On social media, it feels like America is on the brink of civil war 24:00 America feels like a tinderbox 25:45 ICE is being trained to treat citizens as threats, not constituents 27:30 Law enforcement is supposed to be a deescalator  30:15 We’ve been living through a “vote against” political roller coaster 32:00 Voters don’t like chaos, & Trump is neither calm or stable 33:00 Elements of the American right have given up on democracy 34:15 America will eventually be ok, but is not ok in this moment 34:45 The sparks of military clash are burning around the world 37:00 Parallels between Ruby Ridge standoff & Minneapolis ICE shooting 39:15 A confrontation occurred between Weaver’s son & law enforcement 40:00 FBI sniper shot Weaver’s wife while holding her baby 40:30 Unlike Minneapolis, government held investigations after Ruby Ridge 41:30 Ruby Ridge led to militia formations & deep state conspiracies 42:15 Administration tried to solidify narrative before facts in Minneapolis 44:00 The left sees Renee Good as a victim, the right sees justification 45:00 The Trump administration has politicized the rule of law 46:00 If U.S. doesn’t respect rights of its citizens, it can’t take moral high ground 53:15 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast 54:30 What do the numbers say about the state of the economy? 55:15 Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts about to start showing up 56:00 Tax refunds will add juice to the economy 56:45 All the “juice” is deficit financed and will only be temporary 57:45 Interest rates cuts likely to be cautious but will continue 59:00 AI stocks on fire, rest of the stocks are just up slightly 1:00:45 The economy isn’t creating any jobs despite investment 1:01:30 Job creation flatlined after “Liberation Day” 1:02:45 Manufacturing has been losing jobs due to tariffs 1:04:00 Are deportations creating more jobs for native born workers? 1:04:45 Jobs normally taken by foreign born workers aren’t being filled 1:06:00 Companies aren’t laying off, they’re just not hiring new employees 1:07:15 Trade deficit reportedly down, but is that actually a good thing? 1:08:00 Imports of pharmaceuticals have collapsed due to tariffs 1:08:45 Tariffs haven’t actually addressed the trade deficit 1:10:15 Tariff revenue shows the stated tariff rates aren’t holding true 1:11:30 Will the K-shaped economy continue through 2026? 1:13:00 Economy is affecting different income groups wildly different 1:14:15 Partisans believe economy is better depending on who is president 1:15:30 How do you price in Trump taking Greenland & ending NATO? 1:16:15 Economies around the world are in a similar, fragile place like the U.S. 1:17:15 The U.S. is rapidly pulling away from the rest of the world 1:18:15 Trump’s protectionism has been contagious to other countries 1:19:30 The world is preparing for a deglobalization 1:21:30 China hasn’t really taken advantage of U.S. global retreat 1:22:15 Countries that embrace immigration are the most successful 1:23:15 No country benefited more from globalization than China 1:25:00 USMCA has to be renegotiated, will probably remain status quo 1:27:15 Job market for new college graduates is very tough 1:28:00 Rise in unemployment is almost exclusively college educated 1:29:00 Proficiency in AI will be critical in future jobs 1:30:00 Classical higher education could make a comeback 1:32:00 Home ownership is unaffordable for many Americans 1:32:45 It’s better to rent than to buy in this market 1:33:45 There’s not a lot of buyers for prospective home sellers 1:34:30 Raising the capital gains exclusion could generate more sellers 1:37:00 There’s a chance the GOP could lose house majority before November 1:37:30 What risks that could upend the economy that concern you the most? 1:38:15 Geopolitical risk is very elevated 1:38:45 Stock market being buoyed by AI, could be ripe for correction 1:40:15 If there’s a major problem it will be in the financial system 1:40:45 If an AI company defaults, it could change the psychology of lenders 1:43:00 GDP growth will be under 3% in 2026 1:44:00 Will be tough to imagine positive job growth in 2026 1:46:15 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Mark Zandi 1:47:00 ToddCast Time Machine – January 8th, 1918 1:47:45 Woodrow Wilson lays out blueprint for 20th century world order 1:48:30 America tried to shape the world with ideas, not empire 1:49:45 Wilson’s Fourteen Points speech rejected premise that caused WW1 1:51:15 Wilson advances transparency, diplomacy & idealistic foreign policy 1:52:15 Wilson calls for economic interdependence & free trade 1:53:15 Wilson proposes self-determination over empires 1:54:30 Some American conservatives have rejected Wilsonianism for 100 years 1:56:00 Wilson wanted America’s role to be an arbiter, not a conqueror 1:57:00 In 1919, Wilson’s vision was confronted by power politics 1:57:45 The U.S. proposes the League of Nations but doesn’t join it 1:58:30 Every global geopolitical debate traces back to Wilson’s speech 1:59:45 The post-WW2 world order benefitted America, & it’s falling apart 2:01:15 Ask Chuck 2:02:00 Reaction to the ICE shooting in Minneapolis? 2:03:30 Why hasn’t the US taken action to remove the leader of Haiti? 2:08:00 Could Rahm Emanuel beat Gavin Newsom for Dem nomination? 2:11:15 Would an attack on Colombia be a mistake for the Trump administration? 2:17:15 Miami vs Indiana national championship previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Chuck ToddCast, Chuck Todd digs into a growing sense of unease shared across the political spectrum, as 2026 looms as a “year of living dangerously” at home and abroad. From mass migration, rising nationalism, and AI-driven economic fear to flashpoints in Venezuela, Iran, and beyond, the conversation explores why so many global and domestic headlines feel like potential tipping points. Chuck argues the world is less stable—and America more divided—under Donald Trump, whose administration he says views chaos and division as sources of power rather than problems to solve. The episode draws stark parallels between the Minneapolis ICE shooting and the Ruby Ridge standoff, examining how the rush to control narratives, the politicization of law enforcement, and the erosion of civil liberties can fracture public trust. The warning is sobering: America may ultimately be okay, but right now it’s a tinderbox—and a country that fails to protect the rights of its own citizens risks losing its moral authority everywhere else. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson’s “Fourteen Points” speech that laid out the vision for the 20th century world order & warns that retreating from it could be devastating for both the United State & the world. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment & previews the national championship between Indiana & Miami. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:30 People on both sides of the aisle worried if we’ll be ok 07:00 2026 will be the “year of living dangerously” 07:45 We are in uncharted waters and don’t know where it’s headed 09:30 Mass migration has led to rising nationalism in USA & Europe 10:00 Globalization caused a sense of displacement 11:00 AI will create even more fear than globalization 12:15 The political response to economic anxiety has failed 14:00 We still don’t know what will happen with Venezuela 14:30 Iranian regime likely will fall in 2026 15:45 It’s clear Trump has no plan for Venezuela 17:30 Latin America is deeply skeptical of American power 19:00 Every headline feels like a tipping point 20:00 Trump could take military action against many countries 20:30 The world is less safe because Donald Trump is president 21:45 Trump admin believes division bolsters their power 23:00 On social media, it feels like America is on the brink of civil war 24:00 America feels like a tinderbox 25:45 ICE is being trained to treat citizens as threats, not constituents 27:30 Law enforcement is supposed to be a deescalator  30:15 We’ve been living through a “vote against” political roller coaster 32:00 Voters don’t like chaos, & Trump is neither calm or stable 33:00 Elements of the American right have given up on democracy 34:15 America will eventually be ok, but is not ok in this moment 34:45 The sparks of military clash are burning around the world 37:00 Parallels between Ruby Ridge standoff & Minneapolis ICE shooting 39:15 A confrontation occurred between Weaver’s son & law enforcement 40:00 FBI sniper shot Weaver’s wife while holding her baby 40:30 Unlike Minneapolis, government held investigations after Ruby Ridge 41:30 Ruby Ridge led to militia formations & deep state conspiracies 42:15 Administration tried to solidify narrative before facts in Minneapolis 44:00 The left sees Renee Good as a victim, the right sees justification 45:00 The Trump administration has politicized the rule of law 46:00 If U.S. doesn’t respect rights of its citizens, it can’t take moral high ground 52:45 ToddCast Time Machine – January 8th, 1918 53:30 Woodrow Wilson lays out blueprint for 20th century world order 54:15 America tried to shape the world with ideas, not empire 55:30 Wilson’s Fourteen Points speech rejected premise that caused WW1 57:00 Wilson advances transparency, diplomacy & idealistic foreign policy 58:00 Wilson calls for economic interdependence & free trade 59:00 Wilson proposes self-determination over empires 1:00:15 Some American conservatives have rejected Wilsonianism for 100 years 1:01:45 Wilson wanted America’s role to be an arbiter, not a conqueror 1:02:45 In 1919, Wilson’s vision was confronted by power politics 1:03:30 The U.S. proposes the League of Nations but doesn’t join it 1:04:15 Every global geopolitical debate traces back to Wilson’s speech 1:05:30 The post WW2 world order benefitted America, & it’s falling apart 1:07:00 Ask Chuck 1:07:45 Reaction to the ICE shooting in Minneapolis? 1:09:15 Why hasn’t the US taken action to remove the leader of Haiti? 1:13:45 Could Rahm Emmanuel beat Gavin Newsom for Dem nomination? 1:17:00 Would an attack on Colombia be a mistake for the Trump administration? 1:23:00 Miami vs Indiana national championship previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck Todd to break down what the numbers actually say about the U.S. economy—and why the headline optimism may be masking deeper problems. Zandi explains how upcoming tax refunds and delayed tax cuts will temporarily juice growth, even as that stimulus is entirely deficit-financed. Interest rate cuts are likely coming, but cautiously, and while AI stocks are soaring, the broader market is barely treading water. Beneath the surface, job creation has stalled, manufacturing jobs are shrinking under tariffs, and deportations aren’t translating into more employment for native-born workers as many expected. The conversation widens to a fragile global outlook, with Trump-era protectionism accelerating deglobalization and reshaping trade, housing, and labor markets. Zandi details why college-educated workers are now seeing the sharpest rise in unemployment, how AI skills will define the next generation of jobs, and why renting often makes more sense than buying right now. Looking ahead to 2026, he warns of elevated geopolitical and financial-system risks, an AI-driven stock market that could be vulnerable to a correction, GDP growth likely under 3%, and a job market that may struggle to grow at all. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15 What do the numbers say about the state of the economy? 02:00 Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts about to start showing up 02:45 Tax refunds will add juice to the economy 03:30 All the “juice” is deficit financed and will only be temporary 04:30 Interest rates cuts likely to be cautious but will continue 05:45 AI stocks on fire, rest of the stocks are just up slightly 07:30 The economy isn’t creating any jobs despite investment 08:15 Job creation flatlined after “Liberation Day” 09:30 Manufacturing has been losing jobs due to tariffs 10:45 Are deportations creating more jobs for native born workers? 11:30 Jobs normally taken by foreign born workers aren’t being filled 12:45 Companies aren’t laying off, they’re just not hiring new employees 14:00 Trade deficit reportedly down, but is that actually a good thing? 14:45 Imports of pharmaceuticals have collapsed due to tariffs 15:30 Tariffs haven’t actually addressed the trade deficit 17:00 Tariff revenue shows the stated tariff rates aren’t holding true 18:15 Will the K-shaped economy continue through 2026? 19:45 Economy is affecting different income groups wildly different 21:00 Partisans believe economy is better depending on who is president 22:15 How do you price in Trump taking Greenland & ending NATO? 23:00 Economies around the world are in a similar, fragile place like the U.S. 24:00 The U.S. is rapidly pulling away from the rest of the world 25:00 Trump’s protectionism has been contagious to other countries 26:15 The world is preparing for a deglobalization 28:15 China hasn’t really taken advantage of U.S. global retreat 29:00 Countries that embrace immigration are the most successful 30:00 No country benefited more from globalization than China 31:45 USMCA has to be renegotiated, will probably remain status quo 34:00 Job market for new college graduates is very tough 34:45 Rise in unemployment is almost exclusively college educated 35:45 Proficiency in AI will be critical in future jobs 36:45 Classical higher education could make a comeback 38:45 Home ownership is unaffordable for many Americans 39:30 It’s better to rent than to buy in this market 40:30 There’s not a lot of buyers for prospective home sellers 41:15 Raising the capital gains exclusion could generate more sellers 43:45 There’s a chance the GOP could lose house majority before November 44:15 What risks that could upend the economy that concern you the most? 45:00 Geopolitical risk is very elevated 45:30 Stock market being buoyed by AI, could be ripe for correction 47:00 If there’s a major problem it will be in the financial system 47:30 If an AI company defaults, it could change the psychology of lenders 49:45 GDP growth will be under 3% in 2026 50:45 Will be tough to imagine positive job growth in 2026See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck examines the deadly ICE shooting in Minneapolis and the political, moral, and institutional failures surrounding it. As the administration rushes to rationalize the killing rather than investigate it—despite video evidence and eyewitness accounts that contradict its narrative—Chuck unpacks how DHS rhetoric, recruitment tactics, and targeted ICE deployments appear designed to provoke confrontation and fuel fear. The conversation moves beyond partisan lines to ask what accountability should look like when federal power is used this way, why affected communities are unlikely to trust the investigation, and how the tragedy is being exploited as propaganda. Ultimately, Chuck argues this moment reveals both the fragility and resilience of American democracy, the political danger facing Republicans, and why “whataboutism” has become one of the most corrosive forces in our national discourse. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction on ICE shooting in Minneapolis 01:00 Nobody in administration wants to investigate ICE shooting 02:15 J.D. Vance just idly speculated that ICE was in the right 04:15 DHS recruiting has a militaristic undertone 06:00 DHS has used propaganda to fuel rage in ICE recruits 07:15 Administration is rationalizing the death rather than lamenting it 08:30 There’s an intentionality to which cities are targeted by ICE 09:45 Administration is trying to create confrontation in order to crack down 10:30 This isn’t about left vs. right, it’s about right vs. wrong 11:30 Video contradicts Kristi Noem’s version of events, Tom Homan backtracks 12:15 Police forces don’t normally jump to conclusions 14:15 Campaign to demonize Somalis in Minneapolis led to ICE deployment 15:30 Deployments are meant to maximize, not minimize exposure for raids 16:30 Feds taking control of investigation, community won’t believe outcome 18:00 Administration is using woman’s death as a piece of propaganda 19:00 Trump is acting like his time is running out & he can do what he wants 20:15 No eyewitness accounts match story admin is telling 22:15 Republicans are in huge trouble politically 23:15 American democracy is both fragile and strong 25:00 Admin doesn’t have credibility to provide trustworthy investigation 27:30 ICE needs new leadership and a better code of conduct 29:15 Government is looking to exploit the difficulty in trying to find truth 30:30 Public is supportive of some of Trump’s goals, but appalled by tactics 32:30 Trump doesn’t tolerate any disagreement from within the GOP 35:00 The worst virus in American politics is “Whataboutism”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd is on vacation but the fresh content keeps coming! Chuck empties the 2025 mailbag and answers a variety of listeners’ questions regarding media, politics, history and sports.   If you’d like to ask Chuck a question, shoot us an email at AskChuck@thechucktoddcast.com   Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!   Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:45 As a network on public airwaves, shouldn’t CBS News be neutral? 09:00 How should public figures react to being the targets of satire? 15:00 Why is there a mass exodus of staff from the Heritage Foundation? 18:30 Thoughts on the infusion of prediction markets with political coverage? 23:15 How long does it take for a presidential term to become irrelevant? 30:30 What if Biden stuck with 1 term promise and reformed the presidency? 35:15 What if Russia never sold Alaska to the United States? 38:00 Was the country really united in grief over Garfield’s passing? 42:30 Thoughts on LeBron episode? Magic Johnson should be in GOAT debate 45:15 What one word would you use to describe the year ahead? 49:15 Why don’t we see monopoly concerns over the trading card market? 53:30 Any book recommendations to help understand Roy Cohn? 57:00 Miami’s connection to the cold war portrayed in “Covert City”? 58:30 How does it feel to be an independent journalist after years with NBC? 59:30 Are more people “seeing the light” as MAGA’s coalition cracks? 1:00:45 What are your takeaways from interviewing Andy Beshear? 1:06:00 How did you become a Packers fan after growing up in Miami?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd is on vacation but the fresh content keeps coming! Chuck empties the 2025 mailbag and answers a variety of listeners’ questions focused on politics & policy, the future of Trump & MAGA, and naturally… one on his beloved Green Bay Packers.   If you’d like to ask Chuck a question, shoot us an email at AskChuck@thechucktoddcast.com Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:30 The need for real fiscal reform to try to tackle the national debt? 06:15 Anyone in MAGA that could reunite the two wings of the GOP? 13:30 Would the ACA receive the same blowback if Romney was president? 18:00 Sources to track the Talarico vs. Crockett race in Texas? 22:30 Will Republicans make trans rights a central issue in 2026? 26:30 Will flawed AI content moderation become a bigger issue? 32:15 How could the Trump administration try to rig the 2026 election? 36:30 Thoughts on proposed constitutional amendments? 44:00 Is it a zero-sum game between legacy & independent media? 52:30 Concerns with the Packers?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck tackles one of the most consequential counterfactuals in modern history: what if 9/11 never happened? He explores how the attacks fundamentally altered the American psyche, shattered a post–Cold War sense of security, and transformed how Americans consume news, driving the demand for instant information and accelerating the technologies that now dominate our lives. The conversation examines how U.S. politics, foreign policy, and polarization might have evolved without the War on Terror—no Patriot Act, no Department of Homeland Security, no Iraq War—and whether the political forces that produced figures like Trump and Obama would have emerged at all. From global relationships with Russia and China to the delayed reckoning over economic inequality and partisan division, this episode traces the ripple effects of an event that reshaped everything, and asks what might have filled the vacuum if it had never occurred. Finally, Chuck reacts to his Miami Hurricanes upsetting Ohio State in the college football playoff and makes his predictions for the upcoming games. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 “What if” 9/11 never happened? 03:45 9/11 changed how Americans consumed information 04:30 9/11 was the first true “hit” on the homeland 05:30 9/11 create a new sense of vulnerability in America 06:45 The trauma from 9/11 changed the American psyche 08:45 Prior to 9/11, America was living in a post cold-war calm 09:30 In 2000, the west was trying to court Russia into joining them 10:15 Both parties will bullish on integrating China into the world 11:45 Bush would have been more western hemisphere focused 12:45 Without 9/11, Washington would have been more polarized 13:45 The Bush presidency essentially began on 9/11 15:30 9/11 triggered a “need” for immediate information 16:30 Social media is created to provide immediate info 17:15 There’s no Patriot Act, Iraq war, War on Terror without 9/11 18:30 There would be no Department of Homeland Security 19:45 Homeland Security eventually became an immigration agency 21:45 The isolationist strain of MAGA may not materialize 23:15 Some of the responses to 9/11 led to rise of MAGA politics 25:00 9/11 created a new sense of urgency for following the news 26:15 9/11 sped up the adoption of new information technologies 28:15 Do we not have Trump or Obama without hyper-engaged politics? 29:00 John Kerry probably isn’t the nominee in 2004 without 9/11 30:30 What replaces 9/11 if it never happened? 30:45 Financial crisis still happens anyways 31:45 9/11 delayed the “uniparty reckoning” 32:45 Occupy Wall Street would supplant Tea Party as driving force in 2010 34:00 Without Iraq War, there’s less distinction between Clinton & Obama 35:30 9/11 delayed polarization, economic issues by a few years 37:30 “If 9/11 never happened” final conclusions 40:30 “What Ifs” left on the cutting room floor 49:15 Chuck’s college football playoff reactionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck tackles one of the most consequential counterfactuals in modern history: what if 9/11 never happened? He explores how the attacks fundamentally altered the American psyche, shattered a post–Cold War sense of security, and transformed how Americans consume news, driving the demand for instant information and accelerating the technologies that now dominate our lives. The conversation examines how U.S. politics, foreign policy, and polarization might have evolved without the War on Terror—no Patriot Act, no Department of Homeland Security, no Iraq War—and whether the political forces that produced figures like Trump and Obama would have emerged at all. From global relationships with Russia and China to the delayed reckoning over economic inequality and partisan division, this episode traces the ripple effects of an event that reshaped everything, and asks what might have filled the vacuum if it had never occurred. Then, Jonathan Martin, the politics bureau chief and senior political columnist at POLITICO joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through his bold predictions for the political landscape heading into 2026, starting with the idea that Donald Trump’s second term is less about governing and more about validation, legacy, and self-mythmaking. The conversation explores Trump as a pop-culture figure obsessed with monuments, family dynasty, and loyalty—rather than policy—along with why the country proved vulnerable to a political huckster in the first place. Martin breaks down why a Supreme Court vacancy could reshape the cycle, why GOP turnout may sag without Trump on the ballot, and which Senate races—from Nebraska to Florida to Ohio—could unexpectedly come into play. The episode also looks ahead to the fault lines inside both parties: potential Trump family bids, early jockeying for the post-Trump GOP, and Democratic candidates who may help—or hurt—their own chances. Martin weighs in on foreign policy flashpoints that could define the next two years, from Iran to Venezuela to Trump’s transactional approach with China, as well as internal administration instability and cabinet shakeups. Plus, sharp takes on approval ratings, California’s unsettled political bench, why political dynasties still matter, and—because it wouldn’t be a Chuck Todd conversation without it—a few college football predictions to close things out. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 “What if” 9/11 never happened? 03:45 9/11 changed how Americans consumed information 04:30 9/11 was the first true “hit” on the homeland 05:30 9/11 create a new sense of vulnerability in America 06:45 The trauma from 9/11 changed the American psyche 08:45 Prior to 9/11, America was living in a post cold-war calm 09:30 In 2000, the west was trying to court Russia into joining them 10:15 Both parties will bullish on integrating China into the world 11:45 Bush would have been more western hemisphere focused 12:45 Without 9/11, Washington would have been more polarized 13:45 The Bush presidency essentially began on 9/11 15:30 9/11 triggered a “need” for immediate information 16:30 Social media is created to provide immediate info 17:15 There’s no Patriot Act, Iraq war, War on Terror without 9/11 18:30 There would be no Department of Homeland Security 19:45 Homeland Security eventually became an immigration agency 21:45 The isolationist strain of MAGA may not materialize 23:15 Some of the responses to 9/11 led to rise of MAGA politics 25:00 9/11 created a new sense of urgency for following the news 26:15 9/11 sped up the adoption of new information technologies 28:15 Do we not have Trump or Obama without hyper-engaged politics? 29:00 John Kerry probably isn’t the nominee in 2004 without 9/11 30:30 What replaces 9/11 if it never happened? 30:45 Financial crisis still happens anyways 31:45 9/11 delayed the “uniparty reckoning” 32:45 Occupy Wall Street would supplant Tea Party as driving force in 2010 34:00 Without Iraq War, there’s less distinction between Clinton & Obama 35:30 9/11 delayed polarization, economic issues by a few years 37:30 “If 9/11 never happened” final conclusions 40:30 “What Ifs” left on the cutting room floor 49:00 Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck ToddCast 51:15 Of his 16 predictions for 2026, which ones stood out the most? 52:00 Trump’s second term is a victory lap, more about validation 53:00 Trump is obsessed with building monuments to himself 54:30 Trump doesn’t take the job seriously 56:30 Trump will likely slap his name on the memorial bridge 57:00 Trump is most like Teddy Roosevelt 58:15 Trump is more a pop culture archetype than a political one 59:00 The country turned out to be vulnerable to a huckster 59:30 Prediction of a Supreme Court seat coming open in 2026 1:00:30 Alito more likely to retire than Thomas 1:01:45 By October, it will be clear that senate is in play 1:03:00 Nebraska Dems cleared field for Dan Osborne 1:04:00 Trump not being on ballot could really suppress GOP turnout 1:05:30 Rumors that Don Jr. could run in Wyoming? 1:07:30 Folks in Jackson Hole with money always exploring political runs 1:08:15 Potential SCOTUS nominees if there’s a retirement? 1:09:45 The senate appointees from FL & OH get no traction 1:11:00 Paxton vs. Crockett would be a fascinating race in TX 1:11:45 Dems have a much better shot of winning in OH than TX 1:14:00 Biden could have cut deals with McConnell if government was split 1:15:15 Predictions on next country Trump hits with air strikes? 1:15:45 Regime in Iran could collapse in 2026 1:17:30 Netanyahu could be seen as most unstable force in middle east 1:18:30 Venezuela could become a huge political problem for Trump 1:20:30 In 1st term, leaks were about Trump, now they’re about cabinet 1:21:15 Kash Patel, Kristi Noem most likely to get booted from administration 1:23:30 GOP has political liabilities in Florida, senate race could be interesting 1:25:45 Could Jared Moskowitz be the wild card in the FL senate race? 1:26:30 Trump could be at 30% approval by Labor Day 1:27:15 Dem candidates that could hurt their chances by writing a book? 1:28:00 Without Covid, Buttigieg is likely the nominee in 2020 1:29:30 Newsom is easy to create a caricature of 1:30:30 Buttigieg is too smart to win in electoral politics 1:31:30 CA governor’s race field still doesn’t feel set 1:34:15 Swalwell can raise money, has backing from Pelosi 1:36:15 "Former mayor of SF” is a title that will sink you nationally 1:37:45 Ro Khanna avoids being associated with California 1:38:30 Which Republicans are most likely to challenge Vance? 1:39:45 A Trump will be a candidate, Donald obsessed with family name in politics 1:41:00 Trump won’t just hand off his coalition to Vance 1:42:15 Trump wants to create a political dynasty 1:44:30 Trump will get cozy with China, then claim he averted WW3 1:45:30 College football predictions 1:59:00 Chuck’s college football playoff reactionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jonathan Martin, the politics bureau chief and senior political columnist at POLITICO joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through his bold predictions for the political landscape heading into 2026, starting with the idea that Donald Trump’s second term is less about governing and more about validation, legacy, and self-mythmaking. The conversation explores Trump as a pop-culture figure obsessed with monuments, family dynasty, and loyalty—rather than policy—along with why the country proved vulnerable to a political huckster in the first place. Martin breaks down why a Supreme Court vacancy could reshape the cycle, why GOP turnout may sag without Trump on the ballot, and which Senate races—from Nebraska to Florida to Ohio—could unexpectedly come into play. The episode also looks ahead to the fault lines inside both parties: potential Trump family bids, early jockeying for the post-Trump GOP, and Democratic candidates who may help—or hurt—their own chances. Martin weighs in on foreign policy flashpoints that could define the next two years, from Iran to Venezuela to Trump’s transactional approach with China, as well as internal administration instability and cabinet shakeups. Plus, sharp takes on approval ratings, California’s unsettled political bench, why political dynasties still matter, and—because it wouldn’t be a Chuck Todd conversation without it—a few college football predictions to close things out. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:15 Of his 16 predictions for 2026, which ones stood out the most? 03:00 Trump’s second term is a victory lap, more about validation 04:00 Trump is obsessed with building monuments to himself 05:30 Trump doesn’t take the job seriously 07:30 Trump will likely slap his name on the memorial bridge 08:00 Trump is most like Teddy Roosevelt 09:15 Trump is more a pop culture archetype than a political one 10:00 The country turned out to be vulnerable to a huckster 10:30 Prediction of a Supreme Court seat coming open in 2026 11:30 Alito more likely to retire than Thomas 12:45 By October, it will be clear that senate is in play 14:00 Nebraska Dems cleared field for Dan Osborne 15:00 Trump not being on ballot could really suppress GOP turnout 16:30 Rumors that Don Jr. could run in Wyoming? 18:30 Folks in Jackson Hole with money always exploring political runs 19:15 Potential SCOTUS nominees if there’s a retirement? 20:45 The senate appointees from FL & OH get no traction 22:00 Paxton vs. Crockett would be a fascinating race in TX 22:45 Dems have a much better shot of winning in OH than TX 25:00 Biden could have cut deals with McConnell if government was split 26:15 Predictions on next country Trump hits with air strikes? 26:45 Regime in Iran could collapse in 2026 28:30 Netanyahu could be seen as most unstable force in middle east 29:30 Venezuela could become a huge political problem for Trump 31:30 In 1st term, leaks were about Trump, now they’re about cabinet 32:15 Kash Patel, Kristi Noem most likely to get booted from administration 34:30 GOP has political liabilities in Florida, senate race could be interesting 36:45 Could Jared Moskowitz be the wild card in the FL senate race? 37:30 Trump could be at 30% approval by Labor Day 38:15 Dem candidates that could hurt their chances by writing a book? 39:00 Without Covid, Buttigieg is likely the nominee in 2020 40:30 Newsom is easy to create a caricature of 41:30 Buttigieg is too smart to win in electoral politics 42:30 CA governor’s race field still doesn’t feel set 45:15 Swalwell can raise money, has backing from Pelosi 47:15 "Former mayor of SF” is a title that will sink you nationally 48:45 Ro Khanna avoids being associated with California 49:30 Which Republicans most likely to challenge Vance? 50:45 A Trump will be a candidate, Donald obsessed with family name in politics 52:00 Trump won’t just hand off his coalition to Vance 53:15 Trump wants to create a political dynasty 55:30 Trump will get cozy with China, then claim he averted WW3 56:30 College football predictionsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd is on vacation, but the news never sleeps! Chuck gives his initial thoughts to the Trump administration's military operation in Venezuela to capture President Nicolas Maduro, the motivations behind it, and why the success of the operation may emboldened Trump to take even riskier actions. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nuclear engineer & former Miss America, Grace Vanderhei joins Chuck Todd to break down the realities of nuclear energy—what’s safer than most people think, what genuinely needs fixing, and why public perception has lagged so far behind the science. From how she got into nuclear engineering to how disasters like Fukushima reshaped the industry’s momentum, Grace explains why rare accidents dominate the narrative, even as nuclear power remains one of the safest jobs in the country. The conversation explores America’s aging nuclear infrastructure, the challenges of upgrading decades-old plants, and why rising grid demand from AI is pushing utilities to restart and refurbish reactors instead of building new ones. Chuck and Grace also dig into the promise and limits of small modular reactors, the unresolved problem of nuclear waste storage, and how pop culture—from Homer Simpson to Hollywood—has warped the way we think about nuclear energy, all while pointing listeners to where they can follow Grace’s work and research. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:45 Why the ToddCast decided to do the “New Voices” series 01:45 Grace Vanderhei is a former Miss America, now promoting nuclear energy 02:30 Nuclear energy is generally safe, but when it’s not safe it’s catastrophic 03:30 Environmentalists are split on nuclear power 04:45 Demand for power is way up, nuclear power will be needed to meet it 8:15 Grace Vanderhei joins the Chuck ToddCast 9:30 How Grace got into nuclear engineering 13:00 Advances in the tools engineers use 14:30 Fukushima disaster set back momentum in nuclear industry 15:45 Every nuclear facility stores emergency backup parts close by 17:15 Disasters are rare, but capture the public perception of nuclear 18:45 Nuclear tends to be more associated with weapons than energy 20:45 How big of a concern is America’s aging nuclear infrastructure? 23:15 Difficulties with updating decades old nuclear pants? 24:45 Grid demand from AI has led to restarting old nuclear plants 25:30 Refurbishing vs. building new nuclear plants 26:45 The nuclear plant decommissioning process 28:45 Three mile island wasn’t far into decommissioning before refurbishment 30:45 The development of small, modular nuclear reactors 32:15 Small modular reactors are on submarines, not used commercially yet 33:45 Safe, workable SMR’s are still a few years away 35:30 Other countries have surpassed US’s ability to build nuclear power 36:15 Which popular misconceptions are easiest to debunk? 37:30 There are only 6 safer jobs than working at a nuclear plant 38:45 Environmental community has always been divided over nuclear 40:15 Challenges of storing nuclear waste 41:15 There aren’t great current options for storing commercial nuclear waste 43:45 Is Homer Simpson good or bad for perception of nuclear energy? 45:15 Where you can find Grace’s workSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this special episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck continues his “What If” series, an exploration of how small decisions and turning points can radically reshape American history. Using the razor-thin 2000 election as a starting point, Chuck explains why counterfactuals are a powerful way to understand how we got here—and how different choices might have altered today’s polarized political landscape. The episode then dives into two alternate histories surrounding the 2020 election, examining the butterfly effects of outcomes that almost happened but didn’t. First, Chuck asks what America might look like if Donald Trump had lost in 2020 and accepted the result—no “stop the steal,” no January 6th, and a very different Biden presidency likely constrained by a Republican Senate and a weaker Democratic coalition. Then he flips the premise and explores a more provocative scenario: what if Trump had actually won in 2020? With stronger institutional guardrails, a less sycophantic cabinet, and immediate lame-duck pressures, Chuck argues the country may have experienced less chaos at home and abroad, even as major global questions—from Afghanistan to Ukraine—would still loom. The episode ultimately shows how January 6th became a hinge point that reshaped both Biden’s presidency and Trump’s second term, leaving open the unsettling possibility that American politics—and even the 2024 race—could look entirely different today. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:45 Why Chuck launched the “What If” series 03:45 The 2000 election started the deep partisan divide in America 05:30 If Florida had a Dem sec of state the election result could be different 07:00 Gore’s decision to only recount certain counties was a mistake 08:15 “What If” examines butterfly effect of political events going differently 10:15 Alternative scenarios are a great way to teach history 11:30 Examining two alternate histories in this What If episode 14:30 What if Trump won in 2020, or accepted his loss in 2020? 16:15 November 2020, Trump was faced with three scenarios 17:00 PART ONE: What if Trump loses, but accepts the loss? 17:30 There’s no stop the steal, fake electors or January 6th 19:00 Trump wouldn’t have been deplatformed on social media 20:00 Trump would likely have faded away like Al Gore did in 2001 21:00 Trump’s grip over GOP tightened because he lost & didn’t accept it 22:30 What Biden presidency looks like if Trump accepted election result 23:15 Democrats may not win both Georgia runoffs & control congress 24:00 Biden’s entire presidency looks different without senate control 25:45 Biden would have been boxed into being a center-left president 27:45 Biden wouldn’t have gotten the “rally around the flag” effect from J6 30:15 Likely the midterms go worse for Dems without ghost of Trump 31:15 Biden likely still doesn’t win second term  32:45 Biden would likely have faced serious primary challenges 34:00 Border might have been handled better with GOP Senate 36:30 The big question would be how much power Trump retained over GOP 37:30 PART TWO: What if Trump had WON in 2020 with the same result as ‘24? 40:00 The GOP would likely have retained senate, Dems get the house 40:30 Mike Pence is still the vice president, staffing at WH would be very different 42:00 The chief of staff would have still put some guardrails around the WH 44:30 There wouldn’t be a cabinet full of Trump sycophants  45:30 There would be no weaponization of ICE after border surge 47:00 Vaccine rollout could have been more chaotic but w/ higher compliance 48:30 There would be early flood of GOP presidential candidates 51:00 Afghanistan withdrawal would fall at Trump’s feet 53:00 Trump’s lame duckness would have kicked in right away 54:30 Strong argument America would be better off if Trump won in 2020 55:45 There’s less tumult in the military, no Hegseth as SecDef 57:30 Trump may have had more ability to reign in Bibi Netanyahu 59:30 Would the Russia/Ukraine war have gone differently? Probably not 1:02:30 Putin may have taken Ukraine piecemeal, but no full scale invasion 1:04:00 Trump still hasn’t acknowledged that Russia is the invader 1:05:30 America may not have shared advance knowledge of invasion 1:09:00 Biden’s governance changed by J6, Trump’s 2nd term massively different 1:13:30 Pete Buttigieg might be president in 2024See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck examines Donald Trump’s holiday Truth Social spree as a revealing window into his worldview and leadership style. From angry, vaguely threatening posts tied to Epstein to Christmas messages laced with grievance and insults, Trump’s online behavior paints a picture of a lonely, aggrieved figure who often sounds less like a head of state and more like a mob boss issuing warnings. Chuck unpacks how Trump’s rhetoric on immigration, religion, and military force—sometimes delivered in the same breath as holiday greetings—reflects a transactional “Trump Doctrine” where identity and loyalty justify power, and sovereignty becomes negotiable. The conversation then widens to the global consequences of this approach. Chuck argues that Trump’s selective isolationism and deal-making have badly damaged America’s reputation, eroded trust with Europe, and risk pushing allies toward China in search of stability. By prioritizing short-term wins and performative toughness over alliances and norms, Trump may be trading momentary leverage for long-term strategic loss—reshaping the global order in ways that could haunt the United States for a generation. Then, Yaron Weitzman, author of “A Hollywood Ending: The Dreams and Drama of the LeBron Lakers”, joins Chuck to unpack the remarkable rise, impact, and legacy of LeBron James—on the court, in Los Angeles, and far beyond basketball. Drawing from his reporting and authorship, Weitzman explains how access-driven sports journalism shapes the stories we’re told, why LeBron was always more than just another superstar chasing rings, and how the Lakers–LeBron partnership became a mutually saving force for two global institutions. The conversation traces LeBron’s path from Miami to Cleveland to Los Angeles, the myths around his ambition and loyalty, and how “The Decision” reshaped the power dynamics between players and franchises. The episode also looks ahead to LeBron’s next chapter: his eventual role as an owner, the possibility of a farewell tour, how Bronny factors into his decisions, and what a post-LeBron Lakers era might look like. Weitzman and Todd explore LeBron’s business instincts, cultural influence, complicated relationship with fans and social media, and why—despite universal respect—he’s never been universally beloved. In the end, they ask the defining question of any icon: how history will remember LeBron James, and who gets to tell that story. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to the date Ellis Island closed its doors for immigrant processing and traces the messy history of immigration policy in the United States. He also answers listeners’ question in the “Ask Chuck” segment and does a roundup from the world of sports. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 In the 80’s many fans identified with NBA players over teams 05:00 LeBron will be one of the four most consequential millennials 08:15 What to make of Trump’s Truth Social posts over the holidays? 09:30 Trump makes angry, potentially threatening post over Epstein 11:00 Trump doesn’t have any true close friends/relationships 12:15 Trump spent Xmas behaving lonely on the internet 13:00 The “Trump Doctrine” was on display on his Truth Social feed 13:45 Trump sounded more like a mob boss than head of state 14:15 Trump added immigration rant into his NORAD Santa appearance 15:00 Trump wishes Merry Xmas to “radical left scum” 15:45 Trump announces military strikes in Nigeria to protect Christians 16:30 Trump uses identity as justification for military force 17:00 Trump’s posts about Venezuela through lens of ownership 18:30 Trump strikes different tone with Ukraine, sovereignty is collateral 19:30 Trump’s worldview looks incoherent, but it’s selectively transactional 20:45 Trump has damaged the US’s reputation for a generation 21:45 Europe doesn’t trust the United States anymore 23:00 If oil seizures become precedent, any country could be next 24:30 Allies could turn to China looking for a better deal 25:15 Trump is trading short term wins for long term damage & distrust 27:15 Trump views himself as a TV style mob boss 29:30 Isolationism will cause the EU to strengthen & compete with US 30:30 Trump picks on small countries & does deals with strong ones 37:15 Yaron Weitzman joins the Chuck ToddCast 39:45 How Yaron got started as an author 41:30 Sports journalists now have to trade accountability for access 42:30 Sports journalists don’t have a Freedom of Information Act 43:45 Yaron wasn’t dependent on the Lakers for a credential 45:45 Original LeBron pitch was for the Big 3 Heat, not the Lakers 48:45 LeBron is a cultural icon, not just a basketball icon 50:00 LeBron and the Lakers are both institutions 51:00 LeBron’s brand is even bigger than the Lakers brand 51:45 LeBron’s post basketball life was always going to be in SoCal 53:00 LeBron will be involved in an ownership group eventually 55:00 The Lakers/LeBron pairing was a win-win 56:15 Jerry Buss was not as rich as he portrayed himself to be 57:45 How accurate the Lakers TV shows portray real life 58:45 LeBron was a lifeline for a struggling Lakers franchise 01:00:15 Lakers are the team LeBron has spent most consecutive years 01:01:45 LeBron wasn’t a ring chaser despite his reputations 01:02:15 LeBron turned down the Warriors 01:03:30 LeBron offended Pat Riley during his time in Miami 01:04:45 LeBron’s return to Cleveland 01:06:45 Which franchises will be putting up LeBron statues? 01:07:30 Lakers fans were slow to warm to LeBron due to Kobe rivalry 01:08:30 Not all Kobe fans are Lakers fans 01:09:45 LeBron lived up to his sky high expectations and with no scandals 01:11:00 “The Decision” was the event that made LeBron polarizing 01:12:00 After The Decision fans started siding with players over franchises 01:13:00 LeBron showed that greatness and longevity require hard work 01:14:15 LeBron is universally respected but not universally beloved 01:15:15 Is this LeBron’s last year? 01:16:15 Farewell tour only makes sense with Lakers or Cavs 01:17:45 LeBron could remain a bench player for several more years 01:18:15 How Bronny will factor into his decision 01:20:15 Bronny is beloved by other players and the organization 01:22:00 LeBron’s relationship with Luka Dončić 01:23:45 Lakers began preparing for the post-LeBron era before Luka trade 01:25:45 Does Magic Johnson still have a relationship with the Lakers? 01:28:45 LeBron has mostly stayed away from politics 01:31:00 LeBron lets social media get under his skin from time to time 01:33:45 LeBron is reactive politically, not proactive 01:35:30 LeBron made smart business decisions starting at 20 years old 01:36:00 LeBron’s legacy 01:39:00 Lakers threatened to sue over the book 01:42:00 LeBron likely won’t ever run for office 01:43:30 LeBron will be doing his own documentary version of The Last Dance 01:47:30 ToddCast Time Machine – December 31st, 1954 01:48:30 Ellis Island closes its doors & becomes a museum 01:49:00 America has always argued about being a nation of immigrants 01:49:45 We romanticize Ellis Island, but it caused tension at the time 01:50:30 America has never experienced immigration surge without fear 01:51:15 Immigration quota with discriminatory qualifiers enacted 01:52:30 Ship based migration collapsed after quota 01:53:45 Cold War politics influenced immigration debate in the 1960’s 01:54:45 Immigration policy was sold as modest and non-transformational 01:56:00 Chain migration shifted where immigrants came from 01:57:00 The country relied on illegal immigrant labor & didn’t enforce law 01:57:45 Congress left immigration policy unfinished due to political constraints 01:59:30 Trump admin leans on enforcement, makes immigration a cultural fight 02:00:30 We are a reluctant nation of immigrants 02:02:00 The central question is “Who gets to be an American?” 02:02:45 Ask Chuck  02:03:00 Favorite political comedy? 02:05:00 Should Congress intervene on exorbitant live event prices? 02:12:30 How will midterms shape push for new congressional leaders? 02:15:15 Sports roundupSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck examines Donald Trump’s holiday Truth Social spree as a revealing window into his worldview and leadership style. From angry, vaguely threatening posts tied to Epstein to Christmas messages laced with grievance and insults, Trump’s online behavior paints a picture of a lonely, aggrieved figure who often sounds less like a head of state and more like a mob boss issuing warnings. Chuck unpacks how Trump’s rhetoric on immigration, religion, and military force—sometimes delivered in the same breath as holiday greetings—reflects a transactional “Trump Doctrine” where identity and loyalty justify power, and sovereignty becomes negotiable. The conversation then widens to the global consequences of this approach. Chuck argues that Trump’s selective isolationism and deal-making have badly damaged America’s reputation, eroded trust with Europe, and risk pushing allies toward China in search of stability. By prioritizing short-term wins and performative toughness over alliances and norms, Trump may be trading momentary leverage for long-term strategic loss—reshaping the global order in ways that could haunt the United States for a generation. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to the date Ellis Island closed its doors for immigrant processing and traces the messy history of immigration policy in the United States. He also answers listeners’ question in the “Ask Chuck” segment and does a roundup from the world of sports. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 1:00 What to make of Trump’s Truth Social posts over the holidays? 2:15 Trump makes angry, potentially threatening post over Epstein 3:45 Trump doesn’t have any true close friends/relationships 5:00 Trump spent Xmas behaving lonely on the internet 5:45 The “Trump Doctrine” was on display on his Truth Social feed 6:30 Trump sounded more like a mob boss than head of state 7:00 Trump added immigration rant into his NORAD Santa appearance 7:45 Trump wishes Merry Xmas to “radical left scum” 8:30 Trump announces military strikes in Nigeria to protect Christians 9:15 Trump uses identity as justification for military force 9:45 Trump’s posts about Venezuela through lens of ownership 11:15 Trump strikes different tone with Ukraine, sovereignty is collateral 12:15 Trump’s worldview looks incoherent, but it’s selectively transactional 13:30 Trump has damaged the US’s reputation for a generation 14:30 Europe doesn’t trust the United States anymore 15:45 If oil seizures become precedent, any country could be next 17:15 Allies could turn to China looking for a better deal 18:00 Trump is trading short term wins for long term damage & distrust 20:00 Trump views himself as a TV style mob boss 22:15 Isolationism will cause the EU to strengthen & compete with US 23:15 Trump picks on small countries & does deals with strong ones 28:30 ToddCast Time Machine - December 31st 1954 29:30 Ellis Island closes its doors & becomes a museum 30:00 America has always argued about being a nation of immigrants 30:45 We romanticize Ellis Island, but it caused tension at the time 31:30 America has never experienced immigration surge without fear 32:15 Immigration quota with discriminatory qualifiers enacted 33:30 Ship based migration collapsed after quota 34:45 Cold war politics influenced immigration debate in 1960’s 35:45 Immigration policy was sold as modest and non-transformational 37:00 Chain migration shifted where immigrants came from 38:00 The country relied on illegal immigrant labor & didn’t enforce law 38:45 Congress left immigration policy unfinished due to political constraints 40:30 Trump admin leans on enforcement, makes immigration a cultural fight 41:30 We are a reluctant nation of immigrations 43:00 The central question is “Who gets to be an American?” 43:45 Ask Chuck 44:00 Favorite political comedy? 46:00 Should congress intervene on exorbitant live event prices? 53:30 How will midterms shape push for new congressional leaders? 56:15 Sports roundupSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.