The Continental Rift

Athens is spooked: did the US Ambassador just boast about toppling governments(!)? And is America bringing in Russia from the diplomatic deep freeze? (Can Europe do anything about it?) An EU President and an American comedian untangle this week's continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:00:59 The Rifty back story 00:02:32 Hello from Gdańsk 00:03:44 Will Trump ban diesel exports? 00:05:05 Trump's treatment of Canada 00:06:32 Red carpet for Xi Jinping 00:07:55 US Ambassador Guilfoyle, Greece and gas lobbying 00:11:23 Putin's invitation to G20 in Miami 00:13:14 Kyviv under fire and troubles for European companies in Russia 00:15:49 Military Schengen: can Europe mobilise its troops? 00:18:04 NATO meeting without the UK, France and the Baltics? 00:19:34 Europe's defence projects and the Joint Expeditionary Force 00:22:20 Will Britain rejoin the EU? 00:23:48 EU enlargement: try before you buy 00:26:47 Frogwatch: EU governments publicly naming Russia for hybrid attacks 00:31:36 Elections in Latvia and Twitter wars More information DIESEL — On 2 October, G7 leaders agreed a coordinated IEA release of 100m barrels of diesel and crude oil over four months, with a “substantial” diesel release in the first 20 days. Washington had asked Europe for at least 100m barrels and threatened to ban US diesel exports otherwise (FT). The G7 statement, backed by the US, reaffirms a commitment to “refrain from export restrictions on energy and energy products between G7 countries”. The US supplied about half of EU diesel imports in August (IEA). US, CANADA & CHINA — The US ban in force since 29 September covers nearly $1bn of Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles. Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews, a courtesy US presidents rarely extend; he also greeted Putin on the tarmac in Alaska in August 2025. GREECE & US AMBASSADOR — The WSJ reported on 25 September that, at a March dinner in Athens, US Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle said of Romania’s collapsing government: “We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here”, according to an attendee. Her lawyer disputes the account; the Greek government says there was no threat. There is no independent evidence the US played a role in the collapse of Romania’s government in May. Aktor, a Greek construction group new to gas, has a joint venture with state-backed DEPA supplying American LNG across the region. The WSJ reports Guilfoyle flew to Bulgaria on a jet provided by Aktor’s CEO and travelled to Tirana without embassy staff. RUSSIA & G20 — Trump has reportedly approved an early-stage plan to ease some Russia sanctions in exchange for political-prisoner releases (The Atlantic, 29 September). The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023; the US is not an ICC member. UKRAINE — UN monitors say civilian casualties have risen every month in 2026, with July the deadliest since March 2022. On 1 October a Russian drone hit a Kyiv school; 104 students and 60 teachers survived in its shelter. EUROPEAN DEFENCE — In Operation Dragoon Ride (2015) US Strykers drove 1,800km from Estonia to Germany in 13 days, testing how freely NATO forces can cross Europe’s borders. The Pentagon’s “Bergen Group” meets in Poland in October on NATO’s future; the UK, France and the Baltic states were not invited. The UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force has 10 members; Canada applied to join on 16 September. On 1 October EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said a missile or bombing attack on a European arms factory “would be Article 5”, after Moscow called such factories “potential military targets”. BRITAIN & EU — YouGov’s late-September tracker found 59% of Britons support rejoining the EU, with 32% opposed. FROG WATCH — Estonia joins a growing list of governments publicly blaming Russia: Poland tied the November 2025 Warsaw–Lublin rail sabotage to people working for Russian services; Germany blamed Russia for August’s foiled drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport, and the GRU for a failed incendiary attack on a Munich defence company in September. Investigators believe the Leipzig explosives entered Germany via Bulgaria and Serbia, while the GRU-linked suspect travelled via Turkey (Axel Springer reporting); Russia denies involvement. On 1 October Russia briefly detained the Estonia-bound cargo ship Västerbotten in the Gulf of Finland without explanation (ERR). CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Greenland, Belarus potash and Russian oligarchs: everything has a price this week. What did Washington get from a Greenland defence deal with no end date? And can EU sanctions be bargained with, now they’ve taken Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman off the list? Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:00:51 The Rifty Backstory 00:02:39 German State Elections: the Left, the AfD and Merz 00:05:46 EU drops two Russian oligarchs from sanctions list 00:07:17 Hostage diplomacy: from Griner to Azerbaijan 00:10:02 Greenland: the 1951 deal v 2026 00:12:40 Trump's price list: Belarus potash 00:14:08 Driving the Suwałki Gap 00:15:35 US troops in the Baltics and Macron's warning 00:16:51 The ICC and Europe's pushback 00:18:22 Diesel, refineries and the Strait of Hormuz 00:19:26 Frog Watch: drones and southern Europe 00:22:41 Frog Watch: a Russian helicopter over Poland 00:25:00 Frog Watch: Migrants, border checks and arson in Tallinn 00:27:05 Belgium's leaked memo and Trump's taste for royalty More information GERMAN STATE ELECTIONS (20 Sept) - In Berlin, Die Linke topped the poll for the first time and is seeking a coalition with the Greens and the SPD. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD won 38.2% to the SPD's 35.5%, but no other party will govern with it. Chancellor Merz's CDU took 4.9%, failing to win seats in a state parliament for the first time since 1949. SPD minister-president Manuela Schwesig is seeking a coalition with the Left and the Greens. She was a leading supporter of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and her government set up a Nord Stream-funded foundation in 2021 to help complete it; after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine she called backing it a mistake. EU SANCTIONS & HOSTAGE DIPLOMACY - Le Monde, Euronews and the FT report that France sought Alisher Usmanov's delisting to free two French citizens (Martin Ryan & Anass Derraz) held in Azerbaijan; Ryan was officially pardoned by Azerbaijani President Aliyev on 23 September, Derraz remains in prison in Baku. Paris cites national security and has not confirmed a link. EU sanctions need unanimity, so any one member state can block renewal. The 22 September deadline covered individual sanctions only; the EU's economic sanctions on Russia were extended separately in June. Viktor Bout, swapped for Brittney Griner in December 2022, was an arms dealer convicted in the US of conspiring to arm Colombia's FARC rebels. Vadim Krasikov, who carried out the 2019 Tiergarten killing in Berlin, was an FSB officer; he was freed in the August 2024 exchange for Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva. GREENLAND - US-Denmark-Greenland Security Agreement was signed on 22 September and enters into force once approved by the Danish and Greenlandic parliaments. No approval by US Congress is required. The text reaffirms the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark. The Svalbard Treaty (originally Spitsbergen Treaty) was signed in 1920; Estonia became a party in 1930. DIESEL - President Trump urged Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, citing diesel prices; Rubio said Ukrainian strikes had hit American-linked shipping, probably unintentionally. Russia has banned most diesel exports since July after Ukrainian drone strikes cut refinery output. The International Energy Agency says the global diesel shortage reflects both lost Russian exports and Middle East disruption, including through the Strait of Hormuz. FROG WATCH, POLAND - On concrete blocks found on railway line at Jedlanka in eastern Poland on 22 September, Polish prosecutors have ruled out sabotage and are treating the incident as vandalism. Poland’s military says Russian Mi-8 helicopter that crossed from Kaliningrad on 23 September entered about 300m into Polish airspace and stayed for 42 seconds. FROG WATCH, ESTONIA - 3 Latvian citizens have been remanded in Estonia as suspect in the 15 August arson of Tallinn building used by Milrem Robotics. They have not been convicted and prosecutors say sabotage is one line of inquiry. FROG WATCH - MEDITERRANEAN - Reported CIA warning of possible Russian plan to launch drones from merchant ships in Mediterranean comes from Spanish newspaper El Mundo (23 Sept), citing a Lithuanian defence source. The report has not been independently confirmed and Italy says it has received no such warning. BELGIUM’S LEAKED MEMO - The leaked Belgian foreign ministry paper, dated October 2025 and reported by the FT (24 Sept), says the US is no longer the ally it was and notes Trump's regard for royalty; King Philippe and Queen Mathilde have since visited the US. On 20 September Trump said his proposed Triumphal Arch would house drones, snipers and sniper ammunition; it has not been built. CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Is von der Leyen’s proposed EU Security Council an illusion or a realistic response to Russian sabotage? And will her offer of "associate membership" to Canada trigger an all-out trade war with Donald Trump? A European President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:01:21 The Rifty Backstory 00:03:06 Sweden Election Results and Kingmakers 00:05:34 Nail-biter Elections in Germany and… Russia 00:06:46 SOTEU and Security Council Aspirations 00:09:01 NATO Wants No Discussion of Hybrid Threats 00:10:31 Lindsey Graham Act and Trump’s Tariff Powers 00:12:26 EU Commits to Canada with Offer of Associate Membership 00:17:32 AI Safety: Big Tech asks, EU listens 00:19:44 Frog Watch: Russian Wargaming 00:21:58 France Pushes for Oligarch’s Russia Sanctions Release 00:23:26 US Geopolitics: “It’s complicated” 00:25:29 EU Security Council vs. Kallas proposal More information SWEDEN ELECTIONS - the final count reported only on 17 September (after recording): 176 seats for centre-left vs 173 for the ruling right-wing bloc. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson resigned though his government remains in place while the speaker of the Riksdag conducts talks on forming a new one. The party positioned as kingmaker is the Centre Party, a liberal party led by Thand Ringqvist took 7.1%. The Liberals are part of Kristersson’s outgoing bloc. EU SANCTIONS LIST - France and Slovakia are blocking the six-monthly renewal of the EU’s existing sanctions list of around 3,000 Russian individuals and entities over the listing of billionaire Alisher Usmanov. On 14 September EU ambassadors extended the list for one week. France says it has “a specific national security issue”; the Financial Times and Euronews report the request is connected to French nationals detained in Azerbaijan. CANADA/EU – Addressing the European Parliament on 17 September, Prime Minister Carney welcomed von der Leyen’s proposal of EU partnership.  He ruled out full EU membership and said any agreement would be put to a vote in Canada’s Parliament. Canada exports no beef to the EU under CETA because its producers use growth hormones banned in the EU. The day before Carney’s statement, President Trump called the proposal “laughable” and threatened “very serious tariffs” on Europe if he judged it “a hostile act”.  FROG WATCH, THE NETHERLANDS - On 15 September pipes and cables were placed on railway tracks at more than 35 locations; infrastructure manager ProRail classified it as sabotage, and police, prosecutors and the intelligence service AIVD are investigating. No suspect or motive has been identified. Fires beside Dutch motorways the same day were a farmers’ protest against the budget. FROG WATCH, GERMANY – the Bundeswehr estimates that in event of a conflict on NATO’s eastern flank 300-1,000 wounded a day could be evacuated to Germany; military and civilian hospitals are preparing. RUSSIA – a CNN investigation published on 15 September reported that 14 Russian reconnaissance satellites passed over Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia in the two days before Iran’s strike on the base on 27 March and that US officials believe the intelligence was shared with Teheran.  Russia denies it.  US DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE – On 15 September DOJ charged five men – two Russian nationals and three Cuban and Venezuelan nationals living in Russia – with working for Russian intelligence to plan surveillance, sabotage and targeted killings including a plot to murder a Russian dissident in the US.  All five remain at large. THE KENNEDY CENTRE – Its board, appointed by President Trump, voted on 15 September to close the venue.  The Administration has said in court it could be demolished if its renovation plan is blocked..    LINDSEY O. GRAHAM SANCTIONING RUSSIA AND IRAN ACT 2026 - passed by US House on 16 September after clearing the Senate in August.  White House has said the President plans to sign it.  It will give the President discretion to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas and on countries judged to help Russia evade sanctions, a clause critics in Congress say reaches far beyond Russia. CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

When Germany’s far-right wins, Trump posts "MGGA" and leaks reveal US pressuring NATO allies to dismantle the International Criminal Court, should Europe confront, or accommodate its antagonists? A European President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:01:06 The Rifty Back Story 00:03:02 Far Right AfD Wins 00:13:21 Sweden Votes! 00:17:40 Frog Watch (drones, hybrid war & Putin) 00:23:08 Trump's Annexation Map 00:26:49 Update: Kaja Kallas 00:30:13 EU Enlargment hits the brakes 00:35:34 US Pressues NATO allies to close ICC More Information AfD election victory - The federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classified the AfD as 'confirmed right-wing extremist' in May 2025; in February 2026 the Cologne administrative court suspended that classification pending the main proceedings. The AfD first came top in a state election in Thuringia on 1 September 2024 (32.8%). Saxony-Anhalt is its highest state result and the first in which it is within reach of the premiership. Chancellor Merz said of the result that there was 'particularly great joy' 2,500 km to the east. No statement from President Putin. AfD policy positions - the party's federal programme opposes 'ideologically motivated inclusion' and wants special schools for children with special educational needs; it rejects adoption rights for same-sex couples; 'remigration' is described by the party as the removal of illegal migrants and criminals, and by Chancellor Merz as 'ethnic cleansing by skin colour and origin'; the Saxony-Anhalt intelligence service says the state branch's programme is 'permeated by the racist ideology of ethnopluralism'. Alice Weidel is co-0chair of the AfD. her family home is in Einsiedeln, Switzerland; her official residence is in Überlingen, Germany, and she works in Berlin. Her female partner was born in Sri Lanka and adopted by a Swiss family. The couple's two sons were born to Weidel’s partner and adopted by Weidel. Saxony-Anhalt - Saxony-Anhalt had 192,155 foreign nationals at the end of 2025 about 9% of residents, roughly half the national share and among the lowest of any state; the lowest share is in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The aiport drones were found at Leipzig/Halle Airport, at Schkeuditz in Saxony, a few kilometres from the Saxony-Anhalt. Swedish-Estonian Nobel laureates - Svante Pääbo, Nobel laureate in medicine in 2022, was born in Stockholm to the Estonian refugee chemist Karin Pääbo and the Swedish Nobel laureate Sune Bergström. The most recent laureate based in Sweden is Anne L'Huillier of Lund University (physics, 2023), born in France. Hungary - Hungary expelled ten Russian diplomats on Tuesday 8 September. Foreign Minister Anita Orbán, who announced it, is no relation to former prime minister Viktor Orbán.  Kushner & Witkoff - The US envoys travelled to Kyiv by train from Poland on 6 September. President Zelensky said Russia had struck Kyiv's airports the night before to prevent them landing. At the joint press conference with President Zelensky in Kyiv on 6 September, Jared Kushner said: 'From President Putin's perspective, I think he has certain objectives that he expresses he wants to achieve, but obviously there are different aspirations that he has for his country that can also be achieved once this is concluded.' EU Enlargement - Marta Kos, on 8 September: 'We should not risk our future members building dependencies on others that run counter to our long-term interest.' She named Russia as an adversary in the enlargement process, spoke of 'pressure… from the MAGA ideologists', and described China's approach as economic rather than disinformation-led. the Polish government supports Ukraine accession with conditions (opposition comes from President Nawrocki and from a majority of Polish voters). President Macron has said accession would take 'decades'. The Common Agricultural Policy, of which France and Poland are the largest beneficiaries, is about a third of the EU’s 2021-27 budget, and about a quarter of actual EU spending in 2023. ICC - POLITICO reported on 10 September that at a closed meeting of NATO ambassadors in mid-July the US ambassador, Matthew Whitaker, asked allies to withdraw from the Rome Statute and help 'systematically dismantle' the International Criminal Court, ending with 'We will be watching closely who stands with America.' US strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific are continuing: the most recent was on 9 September; at least 230 people have been killed in more than 70 strikes since September 2025. CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband Executive Producer Fred Casella © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Why would Washington spend $4 million on Europe's right-wing media while inviting Russia's finance minister back to the G20? And why Is Germany allowing US company to build a European-sourced cruise missile near Leipzig? A European President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:01:16 Continental Rift backstory 00:02:48 Iceland EU Referendum Result 00:06:57 Germans blame Russia for Attacks 00:12:59 US co. build European cruise missle for Ukraine 00:15:15 Sweden Buys 4x Frigates 00:17:41 Far-Right AfD lead German State election 00:21:19 US spends $$$ on European right-wing media 00:26:23 EU Chief Diplomat position threatened 00:31:53 Russian Finance Minister snubbed at G20 Meeting More Information Leipzig suspects. German investigators have identified two suspects in the 4 August Leipzig drone attack through DNA and mobile-phone data, with reports of up to four people under investigation. As of recording, no arrests had been announced. One suspect held an Italian tourist visa; Italian security sources say he never travelled through Italy. The other, a Russian-born man with a Latvian passport, flew into Berlin in late July. According to European Parliament VP Picierno, EU states issued more than 477,000 tourist visas to Russian citizens in 2025 with Italy, France and Spain the largest issuers. Russia's response. On 3 September, Foreign Minister Lavrov said Goethe-Institut centres in Moscow, St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg would be closed, adding that any other response would show a lack of "self-respect" on Russia's part. Russia's ambassador to Germany says the Bonn consulate closes on 18 September and the Russian House in Berlin by June 2027. The Leipzig missile factory. The US company Covenant plans to build cruise missiles with a range of more than 1,500 km near Leipzig from 2027, with most components sourced in Germany and Europe. Starlink. Ukraine asked the White House in late July to intervene with SpaceX over the use of Starlink for strikes inside Russia. The Financial Times reported in August that the request was not taken up by the administration. Sweden's frigates. Sweden's contract with France's Naval Group for four FDI air-defence frigates is worth SEK 47 billion (about €4.3 billion), with first delivery due in 2030. US grants for European media. Reuters reported on 31 August that the State Department plans $4 million for right-wing media in Europe within a package of at least $25 million for civil-society groups working on conservative causes. The grants are administered by the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, which says it does not fund political parties. Recipients have not been identified. Congressional review runs to the end of September. Trump and Spain. President Trump has threatened tariffs on Spain over its refusal to meet NATO's 5% spending target (October 2025) and threatened 100% tariffs on any country imposing a digital services tax (June 2026). Kaja Kallas. Her full title is High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission. The Franco-German paper reported by Politico (31 August) would make her an executive vice-president coordinating the Commission's external departments, move much of the EEAS's roughly 5,000 staff into the Commission, and keep security and defence staff under her. At the Wicklow meeting, ministers broadly supported the existing institutional setup but argued it must work better in practice. Timmermans. In a 2023 Dutch television interview, Frans Timmermans said that Kaja Kallas being prime minister of a country bordering Russia was a potential issue for the NATO secretary-general role. Norway, home of then secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, shares a 198 km border with Russia. Estonia. Ülle Madise was elected President of Estonia by parliament on 2 September 2026 and takes office on 12 October.