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The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.
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Distressed debt exchanges in the form of liability-management exercises are set to take off in Europe, according to Gibson Dunn, the US-based law firm. “You’re getting the same lawyers and bankers hired in Europe for deals that they do here — it’s not surprising that they would potentially roll out a playbook that’s worked,” Scott Greenberg, the firm’s global chair of business restructuring and reorganization, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephen Flynn in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It’s a natural progression to take that expertise and bring it to your clients overseas,” says Greenberg, who notes elevated levels of distress in France. We also discuss the likelihood of an imminent US LME revival, the bankruptcy outlook and communications sector stress.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Traded corporate debt is much more attractive than private credit, according to RBC BlueBay Asset Management. “Public credit is far superior,” Tom Moulds, senior portfolio manager for investment-grade fixed income at the $534 billion firm, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “There’ll probably be a point where you do see losses and people get very concerned,” says Moulds, referring to private debt, which he doesn’t invest in. “If we did slip into a period where growth looked weaker, then I think it would be a problem,” he adds. The three also discuss impact investing, defense sector opportunities, financial debt valuations, real estate stress and European sovereign risk.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Leveraged buyouts are poised for a revival, albeit less aggressively structured than in the last wave, according to Moody’s Ratings. “Ultimately everyone will need to adjust to the new environment and you will see deal flow come back,” Christina Padgett, the firm’s head of leveraged finance and private credit research, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jean-Yves Coupin in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “There’s too much capital that needs to be put to work,” says Padgett, noting potential for LBOs in the technology, health care and services sectors. We also discuss the rise of distressed debt exchanges, leveraged loan risk, the impact of tariffs on weak borrowers and why default rates should fall next year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Collateralized loan obligation equity stands to gain as much as 15% this year, according to Tetragon Credit Partners. “It’s teens returns, high current cash flows and diversification,” said Dagmara Michalczuk, co-chief investment officer at the firm, which specializes in the riskiest part of the CLO market. “We are in vanilla corporate America, just using a little bit of leverage in financial engineering to generate those returns,” she tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Campellone in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Michalczuk and Campellone also discuss the risk of loss from liability-management exercises, private debt valuations, loan defaults and relative value in European CLOs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
More companies will fail to repay debt as funding costs stay high, according to Mudrick Capital Management. “What we’re getting is just elevated defaults every year, we think for the next five to seven years,” Jason Mudrick, the distressed debt fund’s founder and chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ Irene Garcia Perez and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Holland in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “The catalyst today is not an economic downturn — it’s this normalization of interest rates,” says Mudrick. They also discuss the Tropicana, Yellow Pages and Shutterfly debt restructurings, as well as flying taxi maker Vertical Aerospace.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Fox Legal Training sees debt documentation risks rising as too much cash chases a limited number of high-yield deals. “Provisions these days are drafted in a way that they are very much departures from reality,” Sabrina Fox, the company’s founder, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Aidan Cheslin in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “That creates an alternate universe, like La La Land, where the numbers don’t match the performance of the business,” says Fox, who specializes in covenant analysis. Fox and Cheslin also discuss lack of transparency in high-yield debt deals, lessons learned from the Altice debt restructuring, how aggressive liability management spreads to Europe from the US and where to spot trouble in prospectuses.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
US billionaires and sovereign wealth funds are going to get more active in global sports investing, according to Andalusian Credit Partners. “The US invasion into other markets is just getting started,” Aaron Kless, the US middle-market direct lending platform’s chief executive officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “A lot of the largest sovereign wealth funds are interested in getting deeper into sports investing,” adds Kless, whose firm focuses on sports, media and entertainment. Kless and Kakuda also discuss the next big sports deal, the high cost of being a fan and how not to get trapped in the vanity play.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ares Management, the $550 billion alternative investor, expects private lenders to get more involved in funding Europe’s rearmament. “We are starting to see more defense opportunities come across the desk,” Mike Dennis, the company’s co-head of European credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jeroen Julius in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “We would tend to be cautious — we need to listen to what our LPs’ appetite for those types of businesses are,” says Dennis, referring to Ares’ limited partners and their environmental, social and governance concerns. Dennis and Julius also discuss middle-market loan pricing, private credit returns and where Ares might look to open up new offices in Europe.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
JPMorgan Asset Management is seeking hedges against credit market losses as risks rise and spreads tighten. “There’s value in shorts and credit protection,” Oksana Aronov, the firm’s head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jody Lurie in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It is very undervalued today because of the complacency in the market,” says Aronov, referring to the high-grade credit default swap index. Aronov and Lurie also discuss the increasing amount of bond and loan interest being repaid with additional debt, dwindling recovery rates, private debt convergence and high-grade opportunities.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
HPS Investment Partners is building out its fund finance business, including net-asset-value lending. “It’s a huge opportunity,” Purnima Puri, head of liquid credit and a founding partner at the $150 billion firm, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Exits for private equity sponsors have been somewhat limited and it’s one way to get some capital back to their investor group, which I think is super important,” says Puri. They also discuss how HPS is positioning for stagflation, the private-debt deal pipeline, relative returns, slim recoveries and liability-management exercise “brain damage.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Barings Sees Global Credit Investor Pivot to Europe (Podcast)Demand for European corporate debt is rising as global investors seek to diversify out of US markets, according to Barings, the $442 billion asset manager. “US exceptionalism is a little bit more questioned, investors are increasingly concerned about US economic policy,” Mike Best, a high-yield and senior loan portfolio manager at the firm, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephen Flynn in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “That will probably in the near term, create a very strong technical demand for European assets,” says Best, who’s taking more calls from investors seeking exposure to non-US markets. Best and Flynn also discuss risks and constraints in European credit, retail distress, communication sector winners and loser, plus how to trade liability-management exercises.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
1When the credit cycle turns, “the game will be over” for some private debt funds that are overly exposed to weak companies, according to Silver Point Capital. “We see every deal that’s getting done — there’s some good deals and there’s some bad deals,” Michael Gatto, the firm’s head of private side businesses, tells Bloomberg News’ Irene Garcia Perez and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “If someone is doing too many bad deals, they won’t exist,” says Gatto, referring to what generally happens when debt market liquidity dries up. Gatto and Havens also discuss Silver Point’s approach to private credit, the growth of liability management exercises and disqualified lender lists.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Collateralized loan obligations are a credit safe haven as highly-indebted companies get dragged down by economic slowdown, according to PGIM Fixed Income. “These structures are bulletproof,” Greg Peters, the $860 billion asset manager’s co-chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matthew Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “The loan market could really come upon hard times and these structures will be fine,” says Peters, referring to higher-rated CLO tranches. Peters and Geudtner also discuss how to profit from liability management exercises, private debt relative value and growing default risk in the consumer and hospitality sectors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Credit markets are rallying but there’s elevated risk of some companies not repaying debt, according to the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “There’s a sense of complacency,” Collin Martin, the firm’s fixed income strategist, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Himanshu Bakshi in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Defaults are probably going to stay high,” says Martin, noting low interest coverage ratios among the weakest borrowers. Martin and Bakshi also discuss private credit risk, floating-rate and preferred debt opportunities, and the impact of trade wars on consumer confidence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Private credit may be hot, but it isn’t for all investors and doesn’t do better than traded junk debt, according to Dimensional Fund Advisors, which manages $790 billion in assets. “There is no outperformance relative to high-yield public bonds,” Savina Rizova, the firm’s co-chief investment officer and global head of research, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jean-Yves Coupin in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Some people might get disappointed with some of the attributes of private credit,” says Rizova, highlighting better liquidity and transparency in public markets. Rizova and Coupin also discuss Dimensional’s expansion into mortgage-backed securities, its active exchange-traded fund strategy and the firm’s overall credit exposure and positioning.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Tariffs are inflicting economic damage that will force more companies to default on their debt, according to Polus Capital Management. “We do have a more substantial book of single name, high-yield credit shorts,” Robert Dafforn, the firm’s chief investment officer for opportunistic credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tim Riminton in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “We think about it as the foothills before the mountain as you go on the slow ascent, and then it kind of picks up more broadly after that,” says Dafforn, referring to an increase in delinquency amid high interest rates and slowing growth. The CIO of Polus also discusses trouble brewing in the chemicals, building materials, packaging and consumer sectors, as well as “equity-like returns” for distressed-debt investors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Yield-hungry credit investors are increasingly seeking longer-dated corporate debt, just as supply is evaporating, according to Barclays. “It’s problematic,” Meghan Graper, the firm’s global head of debt capital markets, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “I worry — can we source enough assets to appeal to where the bid is gravitating, and that’s out the curve.” Graper and Kakuda also discuss the growth of private credit, value in financial sector debt, hybrid issuance, the Trump put and league table rankings for global bond underwriters.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Property markets are headed for trouble as the US economy slows and interest rates stay high, according to Hines, the global real estate investment manager.“We will probably see a bigger wave of assets in distress,” Alfonso Munk, who runs the firm’s debt business, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “What I’m worried about is the operating distress if we get into economic headwinds.” Munk and Alamutu also discuss investment opportunities and risks by property type, region and country, as well as the impact of the trade war on real estate markets worldwide.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
More corporate debt will plunge into distress when the US economy tanks, Marty Fridson, chief executive officer of Fridson Vision High Yield Strategy. “I have high confidence that we will get back to 1,000 basis points on the high-yield index as a whole at the worst point of the next recession,” the veteran credit strategist tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Spencer Cutter in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Corporate bonds trading at 1,000 basis points over Treasuries are usually seen by markets as being in distress, with a high likelihood of default. Fridson and Cutter also discuss energy sector bond opportunities, corporate bond default rates, ratings trends, the Federal Reserve put and liability management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Risky corporate debt markets have room to fall further to reflect the damage of ongoing trade wars, according to BlackRock, the $11.6 trillion money manager. “We’re likely to see spreads widen from here as we see further deterioration in risk assets,” Mitch Garfin, the firm’s co-head of leveraged finance, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “If this uncertainty continues for another quarter, two quarters, three quarters — that could lead to a more significant downturn.” Garfin and Schiffman also discuss private credit relative value, distressed exchanges, technology sector opportunities, portfolio trading and auto sector risk.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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