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The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.
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Private credit could become a $40 trillion market in five years, according to Apollo Global Management. “We’re going to get there really soon,” Akila Grewal, the firm’s global head of credit product, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Matt Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Currently, “we estimate it’s a $20 trillion market,” she adds, referring to asset-based finance. Grewal and Geudtner also discuss relative risk and returns between public and private markets, retail investment, real estate opportunities, advantages for borrowers to raising capital privately and the fundraising environment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Credit spreads are poised to hit record tight levels in the first quarter, even as debt issuance rises, according to participants in this special 2025 outlook edition of the Credit Edge podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s James Crombie. We discuss bonds, loans, private credit — and bourbon — with the following guests: Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research; Ana Arsov, global head of private credit at Moody’s; Matt Brill, Invesco’s head of North America investment-grade credit; Meghan Robson, BNP Paribas’ head of US credit strategy; Meghan Graper, global head of debt capital markets at Barclays; Winnie Cisar, global head of strategy at CreditSights; Matt Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS; Oleg Melentyev, Bank of America’s head of high-yield credit strategy; and Aidan Cheslin, senior credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Swelling demand for limited supply of corporate bonds and loans could spell trouble for credit markets, according to PineBridge Investments. “The thing that gives me a lot of pause right now — and some concern — is the lack of net new supply versus the amount of demand out there,” said Jeremy Burton, the firm’s portfolio manager for US high yield and leveraged loans. “That leads to the risk that the market as a whole will make subpar credit decisions,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Jody Lurie, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Burton and Lurie also discuss the state of the consumer, default rates, coercive liability management, as well as risks in the media, health care and software sectors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Real estate and private equity are a better investment than direct lending, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. Those two have repriced on higher rates, while private credit hasn’t, Gabriela Santos, the firm’s chief market strategist for the Americas tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Robert Schiffman, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It’s been interesting to see signs that actually commercial real estate seems to be bottoming and turning around,” said Santos. Santos and Schiffman also discuss the likelihood of bond spreads staying tight, CCC bond risk, the market impact of trade wars and the technology sector debt outlook.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Homeowners cashing out after a surge in real estate prices presents a major opportunity for debt investors, according to TPG Angelo Gordon. “We’re seeing the evolution of home equity products,” said TJ Durkin, the firm’s head of structured credit and specialty finance. “There could be $150 to $200 billion of origination per year, with a $2 trillion really addressable market there,” Durkin tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Carmen Arroyo, and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Durkin and Havens also discuss private debt, asset-based finance, commercial real estate, M&A and residential solar energy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Private credit to risky borrowers that need a lifeline is poised to boom as rates stay high, according to Oaktree Capital Management. “You’re going to see a lot of what they call rescue financing,” said David Rosenberg, head of liquid performing credit at Oaktree. “That’s going to be one of the greatest opportunities we’ve seen in a decade.” Loans to troubled companies will focus on sectors that have seen most leveraged buyout activity, like technology and health care, Rosenberg tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Jean-Yves Coupin in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Rosenberg and Coupin also discuss liability management, creditor-on-creditor violence, private debt stress, the M&A outlook, European investment opportunities and geopolitical risks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Sustainable finance can keep growing despite potential headwinds from the next US administration, according to Nikko Asset Management. “If the political side is not asking for disclosure on strategies and updates on ESG, we as portfolio managers have to ask,” said Holger Mertens, Nikko’s head of global credit, referring to environmental, social and governance standards. “It’s our job to make sure we’re buying assets at the right price,” Mertens tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Mertens and Alamutu also discuss ESG debt returns, energy transition, issuance forecasts and real estate risks such as stranded assets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The US economy heading for a potentially “turbulent landing” may spell trouble for junk bonds, according to Colleen Cunniffe, head of global taxable credit research at Vanguard. “We’re actually relatively cautious on high yield at the moment from a broad perspective,” Cunniffe tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Himanshu Bakshi in the latest Credit Edge podcast. The world’s second-largest asset manager prefers debt rated BBB, bonds from utilities and banks, as well as asset-backed securities in the auto sector. Cunniffe and Bakshi also discuss commercial mortgage-backed securities, the impact of consumer stress on bank asset quality and emerging markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lending directly to middle-market US-based companies is the best opportunity in credit markets, offering double-digit yields, according to Randy Schwimmer, vice chairman at Churchill Asset Management. “We probably only have a small handful of lenders that we’re competing against,” Schwimmer tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Holland in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “This right now is undiscovered value that is hiding in plain sight,” added Schwimmer, whose firm specializes in mid-market debt deals. Schwimmer and Holland also discuss loan margin and covenant trends, fundraising, private credit innovation, the impact of higher-for-longer rates and regulation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Reports of active management's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Active continues to grow and evolve in ETFs while mutual funds prosper and define benefit plans. Bloomberg Intelligence strategy team uncover active opportunities and glean insights from active managers and those who cover the industry. Listen to Inside Active by Bloomberg Intelligence. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
High-grade US corporate bond issuance will rise again in 2025, building on this year’s record-setting pace, according to Goldman Sachs. “There’s a lot of growth in the economy that needs to take place, as well as all of the refi,” Jonny Fine, Goldman’s global head of investment grade debt tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Refinancing will account for the bulk of the sales, while infrastructure finance and buyouts will boost volume as the economy expands. Fine and Kakuda also discuss the rise of private credit, how regulation and Basel endgame will affect bond markets and the differences between bank financing in the US and Europe, including Additional Tier 1 bonds. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Private debt doesn’t offer high enough returns to justify the growing risks, according to Pimco. “Fundamentals are deteriorating in more levered portions of the credit markets,” said Mohit Mittal, chief investment officer for core strategies at Pimco. “You’re seeing more complacency, so you have to be very thoughtful, you have to be very careful.” Investment-grade direct lending pays only half the premium needed to compensate for worse liquidity than in public markets and rising fundamental concerns, Mittal tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Irene Garcia Perez and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephen Flynn in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Mittal and Flynn also discuss the outlook for the telecoms and the cable media sector, including consolidation and deleveraging. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Schroders Capital is seeing growing interest in private debt from investors looking to diversify as returns in public markets decline. It’s finding the best relative value in commercial real estate where over-exposed regional banks can no longer lend. “The most interesting opportunity, I think is looking where there’s emotional bias and fear,” says Michelle Russell-Dowe, co-head of private debt and credit alternatives at the asset manager, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Schroders also likes residential real estate and equipment finance, Russell-Dowe tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens. Russell-Dowe and Havens also discuss new investors in private credit like retail, high-net-worth individuals and family offices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Blackstone Inc. expects private credit to balloon to $30 trillion in size, fueled by the energy transition, housing and data center lending. “We’re really expanding the opportunity set from quite a narrow part of the market to really a mainstream part,” said Rob Horn, global head of infrastructure and asset-based credit at Blackstone. “Not only can we get hard-asset collateral — which differs from what they get in the public market — but we also get a premium return,” Horn tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Horn and Alamutu also discuss the outlook for residential real estate. “It’s still going to be a decent year, despite the fact that we have this troubling geopolitical risk backdrop,” says Alamutu. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The $1.7 trillion private credit market faces several challenges after years of rapid growth, according Ana Arsov, global head of private credit at Moody’s Ratings. “It’s going to be very important to get more transparency from the banks about is there some kind of synthetic leverage, additional leverage, coming to this market,” Arsov tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Arsov and Havens also debate the impact of exchange-traded funds and broader implications of private debt stress. “It just doesn’t seem like the risk-transmission mechanism is nearly as potent in the way that private credit is structured today, as it has been in maybe some other areas that have caused systemic problems in the past,” says Havens.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Victory for Kamala Harris in the US election would boost the bonds of basic industries, capital goods companies and utilities, according to Matt Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS. “A lot of that we think is tied to the preservation of the inflation reduction act and support of many of the Biden-era stimulus policies,” Mish tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Julie Hung in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Conversely, a win for Democrats would be a drag on debt in the telecoms, tech, banks and auto sectors. Victory for Donald Trump would be positive for energy, autos and aerospace defense, Mish adds. Also in this episode, Mish and Hung debate the outlook for US consumers and stress in private credit markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
As commercial real estate continues to menace banks and investors, Goldman Sachs Asset Management is leaning into the debt. “What we’ve been able to do is find a lot of opportunities in commercial mortgage-backed securities,” Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at the company, told Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence credit analyst Jody Lurie in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It’s a good portion of our portfolio, and we think it generates a decent amount of carry.” In this episode, Rosner and Lurie also debate the outlook for retail and leisure sector companies as lower-income US consumers come under pressure.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Funding companies with unsustainable debt loads has been “the best opportunity in the corporate credit market over the last year or two,” Jimmy Levin, Sculptor Capital Management’s chief investment officer, says in Bloomberg Intelligence’s Credit Edge podcast. Separately, Sculptor expects substantial growth in asset-based finance, where Levin sees double-digit returns, he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Irene Garcia Perez, and BI credit analyst Stephane Kovatchev. Also in this episode, Levin and Kovatchev discuss the outlook for rates, the resilience of US consumers and positioning in the debt of cyclical industrial companies. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Norinchukin Bank faces significant losses from the sale of US and European sovereign bonds that tumbled as interest rates rose, and other financial institutions may also be exposed. “The bank is still losing more than a billion dollars a quarter,” says Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Pri de Silva, referring to the Japanese agricultural bank also known as Nochu. “They need to rip that band aid off and address negative carry in the securities portfolio,” de Silva tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in the latest Credit Edge podcast. De Silva also weighs the outlook for Asia’s Additional Tier 1 bond market, where risk premia are shrinking as supply evaporates. Also in this episode, Mary Ellen Olson, senior credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the turnaround at India’s Vedanta, which may tap the US dollar bond market, as well as the impact of China’s economic slowdown on Asian miners. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lending to law firms against portfolios of legal assets can generate hefty returns, according to North Wall Capital, the London-based credit investor. “We target 25%-plus IRRs, and we have historically outperformed that,” Fabian Chrobog, its chief investment officer and founder, says in Bloomberg Intelligence’s Credit Edge podcast. Separately, North Wall aims to make “mid teens” gains in middle-market private credit, Chrobog tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and BI senior credit analyst Tolu Alamutu. Also in this episode, Chrobog and Alamutu discuss creditor protections, real estate opportunity and the advantages of geographical diversification. “I can see the returns in the US decreasing while I can see still some really interesting opportunities in Europe,” says Chrobog. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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