The Dividend Cafe

Daily Market Recap and Job Data Insights - October Update David Bahnsen provides a daily recap of the Dividend Cafe, highlighting that the market was up with the Dow gaining 79 points, the S&P up slightly by 4 points, and the NASDAQ increasing by 18 points. He mentions the bond market's rise with the 10-year yield down 2 basis points. Sector performances show materials leading while energy declines. Due to the government shutdown, key job reports were missing, but alternative data sources like the Chicago Federal Reserve jobless level and the Challenger Gray and Christmas report offer insights. The report indicates a 24% rise in layoffs year-to-date compared to 2024 and a low level of new hirings. David teases the upcoming Dividend Cafe episode with takeaways from the week's meetings and ends with a mention of supporting the Yankees. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:03 Sector Performance and Government Shutdown Impact 01:21 Job Market Data and Analysis 03:25 Upcoming Reports and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Highlights and Insights: September 30th Edition In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group office in New York City provides a concise market overview for Tuesday, September 30th. Despite a negative start, the market ended slightly positive with the DOW up by 82 points, S&P up by 27 points, and Nasdaq up by a third of a percent. Key economic updates include a slight increase in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and better-than-expected new job openings, reflecting a balanced labor market. Brian also discusses the implications of current trade margins, tax rates, and capital expenditure focus on artificial intelligence. Additionally, he addresses a viewer question about proxy voting in index investments and the proactive approach The Bahnsen Group employs to ensure proper company stewardship. Brian wraps up by promising more economic insights in the next day’s episode. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:38 Economic Calendar Highlights 00:59 Labor Market Insights 01:33 Consumer Confidence and Manager Meetings 01:59 Focus on Market Margins 02:50 Artificial Intelligence and Productivity 03:16 Proxy Voting and Index Investing 04:36 Conclusion and Next Steps Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3IxLuPt Dividend Cafe: Market Insights and Key Themes from Money Manager Week In this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, the host discusses the extensive agenda of the first day of Money Manager Week. The conversation includes insights from several meetings with portfolio managers and asset management partners. The host shares an outlook on recent market movements, including the Dow's marginal increase, changes in bond yields, and performance in various stock sectors. Key points include discussions on market returns driven by earnings growth and multiple expansion, and the U.S.’s new tariff threats. Additionally, updates are provided on significant economic indicators like PCE inflation data, personal income, durable goods orders, and the housing market. The host also touches upon public policy topics such as potential government shutdowns and international trade deals. Lastly, the episode previews topics to be covered in the upcoming Friday edition of Dividend Cafe. 00:00 Introduction and Weekly Overview 01:45 Market Performance Recap 03:13 Sector Highlights and Oil Prices 04:07 Political and Economic News 06:44 Inflation and Economic Indicators 09:08 Housing Market Update 09:32 Federal Reserve and Interest Rates 10:34 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4muX6jX Analyzing America's Labor Market: Cyclical vs. Structural Issues In this week's Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen discusses the United States labor market, emphasizing the distinction between cyclical and structural challenges. He explores the unemployment data, noting historically low rates yet a significant rise in labor inactivity among prime working-age men. David highlights the supply-side issues in the labor market, including potential cultural factors and the impact of social safety nets, particularly disability benefits. He stresses the need for structural solutions and their implications on economic policy and the broader society. The episode concludes with a preview of next week's meetings with money management partners in New York. 00:00 Introduction and Upcoming Events 01:04 Current State of the Labor Market 02:59 Cyclical vs. Structural Economic Challenges 05:23 Unemployment Trends and Historical Context 06:28 The Supply Problem in the Labor Market 08:39 Inactivity Rates and Labor Participation 13:23 Cultural and Policy Factors Affecting Employment 20:20 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Economic Insights: Tariffs, Corporate Taxes, and Housing Trends In this episode of Dividend Cafe, dated Wednesday, September 24, host Brian Szytel provides a market recap from Newport Beach, California. The DOW dropped 171 points, S&P and Nasdaq declined by approximately 0.3%, and there was a minor increase in 10-year bond yields. Szytel shifts focus from daily market movements to broader economic themes, discussing the ongoing impacts of tariffs on the economy, corporate earnings, and tax revenues. He notes a $96 billion increase in tariff-related revenues but a $108 billion decrease in corporate tax receipts due to recent legislation. Additionally, there's an anticipated $150 billion in tax refunds, which could boost the economy. Szytel also addresses the performance disparity between U.S. and Canadian midstream energy stocks and the influence of corporate structures on investment returns. Finally, he reports a significant rise in new home sales and median home prices for August, while annual growth remains below inflation levels. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:58 The Impact of Tariffs on the Economy 02:51 Corporate Tax Revenue and Consumer Impact 04:29 Midstream Energy Stocks Analysis 06:04 Housing Market Update 06:42 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Insights and Economic Updates - Sep 23, 2025 On this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from Newport Beach, covering down markets with the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq all experiencing declines. There was a notable rotation between growth technology and value names, with interest rates moving lower. Flash PMI numbers for manufacturing and services were discussed, both indicating expansion but with slight drops from the previous month. The Richmond Fed Index saw a significant decline. The episode also delves into the AI investment story and its impact on valuations. Looking ahead, several economic indicators are expected, including new home sales data, durable goods, wholesale inventories, GDP estimates, and initial jobless claims. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:35 Interest Rates and Fed Expectations 01:38 Economic Indicators and PMI Numbers 02:33 AI Investment and Market Valuations 03:27 Passive Investing and Market Dynamics 04:23 Upcoming Economic Calendar 04:49 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4n9Rw7O Market Recap and Policy Insights: Navigating Nuances in the Economy In this episode of the Monday Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen provides a detailed analysis of the market activities and public policy updates. Broadcasting from Newport Beach, David discusses his recent travels and highlights from Dividend Cafe's special issue on The Fed. The episode delves into market movements, noting a tech sector surge led by Nvidia and the rare divergence of communication services. Other topics include a notable drop in rent prices, impacts of new tariffs on American businesses, and updates on public policy announcements such as the H1B visa fee and the U.S.-China TikTok deal. David also covers the anticipated government shutdown and its potential market implications, along with other significant economic indicators like oil prices and bond yields. The show wraps up with insights on the intertwining of monetary policy and government debt. 00:00 Introduction and Recent Travels 00:42 Market Recap: A Mixed Monday 01:54 Technology and Communication Services Performance 03:42 Small Cap vs. Large Cap Earnings Growth 06:12 Public Policy Updates: H1B Visas and TikTok Deal 09:10 Government Shutdown and Tariff Revenue 11:08 Housing Market Insights and Fed Policy 14:52 Conclusion and Upcoming Events Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4nEivIn Friday Dividend Cafe: Analyzing the Latest Fed Rate Cut In this episode of Friday Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen delves into the recent Federal Reserve rate cut announced on Wednesday. He discusses the implications of the quarter-point reduction, detailing how the Fed’s decision impacts the market and the broader economy. David also touches on quantitative tightening, job market conditions, and the debate over future rate cuts. Additionally, he addresses the drama surrounding Fed appointments, the potential for overheated financial markets, and the importance of maintaining a balanced investment approach amidst economic uncertainties. Tune in for an in-depth breakdown and insightful commentary on current financial events and their broader implications. 00:00 Introduction to the Friday Dividend Cafe 01:35 The Fed's Recent Rate Cut Explained 02:08 Quantitative Easing and Balance Sheet Insights 03:39 Analyzing the Fed's Announcement and Market Reactions 05:16 Impact on Jobs and Economic Indicators 06:24 Bond Yields and Mortgage Rates Discussion 09:19 Stock Market Reactions and Predictions 11:15 Reasons Behind the Fed's Rate Cut 15:08 Drama and Speculations within the Fed 21:28 Future Predictions and Investment Strategies 23:52 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Update and Fed Rate Impact Discussion - September 18 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group gives a market update on September 18th, detailing the DOW's performance with a rise of 124 points following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points. He highlights the positive movements in the S&P and NASDAQ, and discusses the implications of rising 10-year yields. Sitel provides insights into the historical impacts of rate cuts on the stock market, explaining how short-term and long-term rates affect small caps and Main Street respectively. Additionally, he addresses the complex dynamics of the Fed's balance sheet and its broader economic implications. He concludes with key economic data, including a substantial Philly Fed Manufacturing survey and improved jobless claims, reflecting a positive market sentiment. Viewers are encouraged to reach out with questions and to look forward to another detailed analysis in the next Dividend Cafe episode. 00:00 Introduction and Market Update 02:19 Impact of Interest Rate Cuts 03:15 Fed Balance Sheet and Economic Indicators 04:44 Economic Data Highlights 05:20 Conclusion and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Fed Rate Cut Analysis and Market Reactions - Dividend Cafe In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the latest Federal Reserve rate cut by 25 basis points, bringing the Fed funds rate to a range of 4 to 4.25%. He reviews the Fed’s dual mandate shift from inflation concerns to labor market softening, the unanimous vote except for one dissent favoring a larger cut, and projections for additional rate cuts by year-end. Brian evaluates the Fed’s upgrade of GDP growth projections and the sustained inflation rate around 3%. He examines market reactions, interest rate trends, and potential impacts on credit spreads, small caps, and money markets. Lastly, he explores the implications of substantial funds in money market accounts and uses a Eurozone case study to contextualize interest rate impacts. 00:00 Introduction and Welcome 00:08 Fed's Policy Rate Decision 01:59 Market Reactions and Analysis 03:04 Credit Spreads and Interest Rates 04:03 Money Market Funds Discussion 06:50 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and FOMC Meeting Preview - September 16th, Dividend Cafe In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel covers the market performance on a fairly uneventful trading day, with the DOW closing down 125 points, and both the S&P and Nasdaq seeing minor declines. The discussion shifts to the upcoming FOMC meeting, highlighting the high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, potential dissents from new appointee Governor Steven Miran and others, and the implications for future Fed policy. Retail sales and industrial production data show stronger-than-expected performance, despite a softening labor market. Brian also touches on the Home Builder Confidence Survey and its correlation with interest rates and the housing market. The episode ends with a reminder to tune in for the next update and reach out with questions. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:28 FOMC Meeting and Rate Policy Expectations 01:01 Potential Dissents and Fed Dynamics 01:43 Understanding the Taylor Rule 03:16 Current Economic Indicators 04:10 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3K56sWb Market Trends, Geopolitical Insights, and Economic Outlook - Dividend Cafe September 15th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, guest host Brian Szytel covers the day's market activity, noting minor gains in the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq. He discusses the current cyclical versus defensive stock imbalance, historical trends in high yield bond spreads, and an uptick in small cap performance. Brian addresses geopolitical issues with key insights into U.S. and NATO sanctions on Russia, and the impact of ongoing inflation on consumer goods. Additionally, he explores labor market shifts post-COVID, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the potential changes in corporate earnings reporting frequency. The show concludes with a preview of upcoming meetings with asset managers in New York City, offering a glimpse into the strategies and analyses shaping future investment decisions. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:50 Market Cyclicals and Defensives Analysis 02:14 Credit Market Insights 03:27 Geopolitical and Public Policy Discussion 06:09 Inflation and Employment Market Update 08:12 Federal Reserve and Interest Rates 09:01 Energy Sector Highlights 09:49 SEC Reporting Changes 10:55 Annual Manager Meetings in New York 12:05 Conclusion and Upcoming Events Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3VhbwZZ Unveiling the Economic Impact and Symbolism of 9/11 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, airing on September 12, David L. Bahnsen delves into a unique discussion on the economic intentions behind the 9/11 attacks, emphasizing the attackers' desire to undermine American financial markets by targeting the World Trade Center. The episode explores the symbolic and literal significance of the attacks, draws on historical quotes from Osama Bin Laden and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and highlights America’s resilience and the importance of defending robust capital markets. Key points include the historical context of the World Trade Center, the immediate financial aftermath of the attacks, and the enduring strength of America's economic system. David also ties this discussion into the broader narrative of American exceptionalism and the philosophical importance of free enterprise. 00:00 Introduction and Theme Announcement 00:44 Reflecting on 9/11's Economic Impact 04:33 Historical Context of the World Trade Center 05:58 Financial Institutions in the World Trade Center 08:37 The Jihadist Economic Agenda 14:35 Resilience of American Financial Markets 17:33 American Exceptionalism and Capital Markets 21:50 Conclusion and Gratitude Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Equities and Bonds Rally Amid CPI and Employment Data; Reflecting on September 11 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, Florida on the positive movements in equity and bond markets, with the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ showing significant gains. He also covers recent economic data, including the CPI and jobless claims, and their implications for Fed rate adjustments. Additionally, Brian shares a personal reflection on the 24th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, highlighting the collective memory and tribute to those affected. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:15 Equity and Bond Market Rally 00:47 Inflation and Employment Data Insights 01:33 Federal Reserve Rate Expectations 01:57 Jobless Claims and Fed Policy 03:05 Valuations and Market Sentiment 03:51 Reflecting on September 11th 05:04 Conclusion and Upcoming Content Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Volatility and Inflation Insights: A Mid-Week Market Recap In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, Florida, with a mid-week market update recorded on Wednesday, September 10. The recap highlights mixed performance across markets as a result of the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, which showed a surprising decline of 0.1% against the expected 0.3% increase. The DOW fell by 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq registered minor gains and flat performance, respectively. The segment also delves into the significant decrease in year-over-year inflation rates and previews upcoming key economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims. Additionally, the script addresses concerns regarding high market valuations and the prudent approach to market exposure. Brian also references historical market behavior to caution against rash decisions based on short-term indicators. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:56 Producer Price Index and Market Reactions 02:13 Upcoming Economic Indicators 02:25 Labor Market Insights 03:07 Valuations and Market Strategies 05:52 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Market Update: Record Closes and Economic Revisions In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the record-high closes on the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq, noting a significant boost in the last 30 minutes of trading. He reviews year-to-date market performance and the recent revision in non-farm payroll numbers, which saw a considerable downward adjustment. The episode also covers the unusual yield curve movements, expectations for potential Fed rate cuts, and upcoming economic indicators such as the PPI and CPI numbers. Additionally, small business optimism has ticked up, reflecting a more confident outlook. The bond market's reaction, particularly the decline in 10-year yields, is analyzed, indicating potential continued strength in long-duration investments. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:02 Employment Data and Revisions 02:24 Yield Curve and Interest Rates 03:20 Economic Indicators and Small Business Sentiment 03:59 Bond Market and Long Duration Investments 04:40 Conclusion and Upcoming Events Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47uuMdO Monday Market Update: Analyzing Housing, Jobs, and Fed Policies In this Monday edition of the Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen discusses the latest market movements, job figures, and housing market dynamics. He highlights the Fed's anticipated rate cut decisions, sector performances, and policy updates. Boson also provides insights into nominal GDP expectations and the impact of tariffs on various sectors. Listeners are encouraged to visit DividendCafe.com for detailed analyses and a philosophical discussion on the U.S. free market economy from last Friday's special edition. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 02:13 Market Recap and Insights 04:02 Public Policy Updates 05:58 Economic Indicators and Job Market 08:21 Housing Market Analysis 10:56 Federal Reserve and Interest Rates 12:25 Oil Market and Health Statistics 13:47 Closing Remarks and Special Mentions Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42ckcVf Embracing Risk for Economic Prosperity in the United States In this week's episode of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer at The Bahnsen Group, discusses the crucial role of risk-taking and free enterprise in driving the unparalleled economic growth and prosperity of the United States. Drawing on his experience teaching honors economics at Pacifica Christian High School, David emphasizes the importance of defending the competitive advantages and principles that have historically given the U.S. a leading investment edge. He warns against the trend of moving away from these foundational economic principles and advocates for maintaining a system that values individual dignity, robust capital markets, and entrepreneurial innovation. David concludes by urging investors to focus on these strengths to ensure long-term success. 00:00 Introduction and Host Background 00:25 Connecting Economics to Investment 04:04 The Importance of Free Enterprise 07:26 Risk Taking and Economic Growth 11:15 American Economic Exceptionalism 19:59 Challenges and Future Outlook 23:00 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel breaks down the latest economic data releases and their impact on the markets. He discusses the paradox of "bad news is good news" in the current market environment, analyzes labor market trends, and explains how Federal Reserve policy and interest rates are influencing investor sentiment. The episode also features a thoughtful exploration of the Fed's expanding powers, the risks of market intervention, and a lighthearted close with NFL season excitement. 00:00 – Introduction & Market Overview 00:24 – Anticipation for Non-Farm Payroll Report 00:46 – The “Bad News is Good News” Paradox 01:03 – Economic Data Recap 01:48 – ISM Services & Jobless Claims 02:43 – Q2 Productivity & Market Performance 03:27 – The Federal Reserve’s Role 04:42 – Expansion of Fed Powers 06:00 – Risks of Market Distortion 06:36 – Final Thoughts & NFL Kickoff Have questions or want to hear more on a specific topic? Reach out to the show! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Wrap-Up and Economic Insights: September 3rd Edition In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel provides a market update for September 3rd. The DOW closed slightly down, while the S&P and NASDAQ were up. Key drivers included positive legal news for major tech companies and weaker-than-expected job numbers, leading to lower interest rates. Discussions also covered factory orders, labor market conditions, and the nuances of monetary policy's impact on inflation. Brian emphasized the strength of consumer balance sheets due to resilient mortgage rates. The episode concluded with a shoutout to a recent salmon fishing trip in British Columbia. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:24 Tech Sector and Job Numbers Impact 01:08 Economic News and Fed Futures 02:13 Inflation and Interest Rates Discussion 02:52 Consumer Balance Sheets and Housing Market 04:23 Concluding Remarks and Personal Note Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com