The Political Fourcast

Vice President Kamala Harris is the favourite to be the Democratic nominee for president after Joe Biden’s shock decision to drop out of the race - but can she really beat Donald Trump?   Some polls suggest Kamala Harris is even less popular than Joe Biden, especially in the crucial swing states and like president Biden - she’s stumbled a few times in public - leading some to write her off - but has she been totally underestimated?  To discuss all this and more, Matt Frei was joined by Christina Emba, staff writer at The Atlantic, and Channel 4 News’ International Editor, Lindsey Hilsum.  Produced by Calum Fraser, Nina Hodgson, Shaheen Sattar, Zahra Warsame, Millie Teasdale, and Rob Thomson  

An assassination attempt, J.D. Vance - a relatively unknown Ohio Senator - picked as Donald Trump’s Vice President, and current President Joe Biden desperately clinging on to his own nomination - it’s been another huge week in American politics and there's still one day left at the Republican National Convention where Donald Trump is due to speak - so what will happen next? We’re in Milwaukee where amongst the sea of red MAGA 2024 hats, some delegates are sporting fake white bandages on their ears - a nod to the injury that Trump sustained on Saturday night’s shooting. Millennial Vice President hopeful J.D. Vance has made his first speech to the nation and reaffirmed his loyalty to Donald Trump - a change since reportedly calling him ‘America’s Hitler’ eight years ago. But has the assassination attempt actually helped Donald Trump on his campaign? Will President Joe Biden definitely be the Democrat standing against him? And what’s the deal with all this new-found unity? To discuss all this with Matt Frei on the first episode of The American Fourcast is Republican strategist Cassie Smedile, Washington Post reporter Azi Paybarah, and Channel 4 News’ Washington correspondent Siobhan Kennedy. Produced by Calum Fraser, Shaheen Sattar, Silvia Maresca, Millie Teasedale, Zahra Warsame, and Rob Thompson

After a week-long victory lap in the UK, Sir Keir Starmer flew to America for the Nato summit where he met US President Biden and Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy - but his Western allies have been in a less celebratory mood than Britain’s new prime minister. The far left and right are resurgent across Europe with France politically paralysed after Emmanuel Macron’s snap election gamble, while Joe Biden’s presidency is in near meltdown as Democrats turn on him after his disastrous debate with Donald Trump. With wars in Ukraine and the Middle East threatening to spill over - the stakes couldn’t be higher.  So, how shaky is the Nato alliance right now and are the strains a sign of a wider decline in the West? The UK has a fresh-faced prime minister, but does it have any fresh ideas?  To discuss all this and more on this week’s episode of The Political Fourcast Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Liberal Democrats’ Mike Martin MP, Labour’s Mike Tapp MP, and Karin von Hippel, the director-general of the Royal United Services Institute think tank. Produced by Silvia Maresca, Calum Fraser, Shaheen Sattar, Rob Thomson.  

The Conservative party have suffered their worst ever defeat and Keir Starmer has been swept to power in a landslide victory - but huge challenges are waiting in the new prime minister’s intray and while he has a massive majority now in Westminster, his support across the country is on shakier grounds.   Some of Labour’s big names, who thought they’d be helping to form a new government, are out - beaten by pro-Gazan independents and Greens.  And now Nigel Farage says that, after decimating the Conservative vote and plunging the party into chaos, he has his eyes on Labour.  So what does this all mean, and what next for British politics?  In this election special edition of The Political Fourcast Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, Labour’s Bell Ribeiro-Addy and psephologist Luke Tryl. Produced by Shaheen Sattar, Calum Fraser, Rob Thomson, Nick Jackson.

If the polls are to be believed, Sir Keir Starmer could be set to beat Rishi Sunak’s Conservative’s and gain a record majority in Parliament, but perhaps with one of Labour’s lowest shares of the vote.  Despite promises on tax, voters believe they will pay more, and are sceptical about things getting better. Turnout is expected to be historically low.  The Lib Dems are heading for a lower share of the vote than Reform but could get twenty times as many seats or more. Are these just the realities of our system or the warning lights on the dashboard for a democracy heading down the wrong road?  Look across the water to France and beyond - are we potentially storing up even more discontent and anger from people who might turn right next time?  In this episode of The Political Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Labour’s Bell Ribeiro-Addy, former Levelling Up Minister Dehenna Davison and the SNP’s Mhairi Black to discuss all this and more. Produced by Shaheen Sattar, Silvia Maresca, Calum Fraser, Rob Thomson, Nick Jackson.  

It’s less than one week until election day, and so far the headlines have been dominated by betting scandals, the rise of Reform, and Rishi Sunak’s D-Day blunder. So can the prime minister do anything now to avoid what many polls suggest could be the worst ever result for the Conservative Party? He desperately wants attention to turn to Keir Starmer and what Labour would actually do if they win the election - and here could be an answer to that question in Wales where the Labour Party have been in power for decades. Keir Starmer even said once that Wales is a “blueprint” for a Labour government, although he doesn’t seem to want to repeat that comment much of late. In this special episode of The Political Fourcast from Wales, Channel 4 News’s Ciaran Jenkins is joined by Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, Welsh Secretary David TC Davies and shadow cabinet minister Nick Thomas-Symmonds. Produced by Silvia Maresca, Calum Fraser, Shaheen Sattar, Rob Thomson, Nick Jackson.

Ed Davey has now joined Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak scrambling to check who in their party could get caught up in the betting saga - but is this story on the scale of the expenses scandal or Partygate or is it all just a bit of juvenile stupidity?  If it is, why are people at the heart of the UK’s biggest political parties making these kinds of decisions? And what does all this say about the election campaign? Joining Krishnan Guru-Murthy to discuss all this and more on The Political Fourcast is the ConservativeHome’s Henry Hill, pollster Scarlett Maguire and senior political correspondent Paul McNamara. Produced by Silvia Maresca, Calum Fraser, Shaheen Sattar, Rob Thomson, Nick Jackson.  

The SNP have released their manifesto and, on the first page, they’ve promised again to make Scotland independent - but with polling suggesting that Labour are heading for a landslide victory, including a majority of the seats in Scotland, could this be the end of the independence cause?  Or, paradoxically, might it end up being the best thing for the independence campaign?  Support for Scottish independence has been decoupled from support for the SNP in the polls. So might a Labour government that sticks to Conservative spending limits be just the launch pad the independence campaign needs? Joining Krishnan Guru-Murthy to discuss all this and more on The Political Fourcast are the SNP’s Mhairi Black, Scottish Labour’s Pam Duncan-Glancy and chairman of the Scottish Conservatives Craig Hoy. Produced by Silvia Maresca, Calum Fraser, Shaheen Sattar, Rob Thomson, Nick Jackson.  

Labour have launched their manifesto with just two things on the cover - a picture of Keir Starmer and the word “change” - but how much change are they actually offering when it comes to the big issues of the day such as Brexit, Ukraine, the housing crisis, climate change and the economy?  Labour appears to be on course to win power with a safety first strategy that promises relatively little, leaving us relatively little to hold them to account for.  And now the Conservatives are warning of the dangers of a Labour “supermajority”. Joining Krishnan Guru-Murthy to discuss this on The Political Fourcast are Labour’s Stella Creasy, the Green Party’s Sian Berry and Channel 4 News’ senior political correspondent Paul McNamarra. Produced by Silvia Maresca, Calum Fraser, Rob Thomson, Nick Jackson.

Rishi Sunak has unveiled his manifesto, promising billions in tax cuts and lower immigration - but after his D-Day disaster and Nigel Farage back in the game, is it enough to shift the dial in the election or even enough to stop the right-wing of his own party turning on him before polling day? And with Reform creeping up in the polls, can Farage’s party really overtake the Tories to become the opposition? And what would happen then? Joining Krishnan Guru-Murthy to discuss this on this episode of The Political Fourcast are Conservative peer Jo Johnson, who helped write the winning Tory manifesto in 2015, Harriet Harman, former Labour Leader and Deputy Leader, and Reform UK’s Deputy Leader David Bull. Produced by Silvia Maresca, Calum Fraser, Rob Thomson, Nick Jackson.

Rishi Sunak has apologised and admitted it was a “mistake” to leave D-Day commemorations early, but many in the Conservative Party are already furious with the prime minister and Labour’s Keir Starmer has said he “has to explain” the decision.   So why did he do it? Having spent the campaign so far reaching out to the very voters who hold respect for history and veterans so dear.  Is this the moment the game is up and closing the gap on Labour becomes unrecoverable? Nigel Farage is already out there saying it shows Sunak isn't patriotic. With me Conservative Home’s Henry Hill, Boris Johnson’s former director of communications Guto Harri and Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth.  Produced by Calum Fraser, Rob Thomson, Nick Jackson and Annie La Vespa  

Devastating polling, the return of Nigel Farage and more talk of defections - it was almost looking like a truly nightmarish week for Rishi Sunak, but then came the TV leaders debate with Keir Starmer and the Conservative’s claim that a Labour government will raise taxes by £2,000 per household. Keir Starmer failed to effectively deny the Conservative attack line until the second half of the debate and called it a lie.  Today, Labour are again saying it is a lie and the Treasury have distanced themselves from it - but, perhaps, as the old saying goes, a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has got its shoes on.    Two weeks into the election campaign, are we entering a new dirtier phase to this campaign?  Joining me in the Fourcast studio, Labour's shadow attorney general Emily Thornberry, the Conservative's Home Office Minister Chris Philp, and pollster Luke Tryl from More in Common.    Produced by Shaheen Sattar, Calum Fraser, Rob Thomson, Nick Jackson and Silvia Maresca  

Reports that Labour are set to bar Diane Abbott from standing in the general election have sparked outrage, with the veteran MP accusing Keir Starmer of purging the party’s left wing and alienating voters.  But is the Labour leader and his inner circle willing to lose left-wing voters, if it means they can concentrate on winning over disaffected Conservatives and bringing back Labour supporters who were put off by Jeremy Corbyn? This week, Rishi Sunak has made a slew of policy announcements - national service for teenagers, cutting so-called “Mickey Mouse” university courses, and a tax giveaway for pensioners - this has left many wondering if the Tories have totally given up on young voters. Meanwhile, Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey was pictured falling - or jumping - off a paddleboard in Lake Windermere, but can the party make a splash across the country or is it just about a few target seats? In this episode of The Political Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy talks about all this with the Liberal Democrats’ deputy leader Daisy Cooper, former Conservative Universities minister, Lord Johnson, and Meg Hillier, who was Labour Chair of Parliament's Public Accounts Committee and has been the MP in Diane Abbott’s neighbouring constituency for 20 years. Produced by Calum Fraser, Silvia Maresca, Shaheen Sattar, Rob Thompson and Nick Jackson.

Campaigning is underway after Rishi Sunak’s shock decision to call a snap general election - and the decision by Nigel Farage not to stand as a candidate for his Reform UK party might play to his favour - yet many are still puzzled by his decision.  The Conservatives are twenty points behind in the polls and even the prime minister recently admitted he’s unlikely to win. So why go now? And why in the rain?  Does he have something up his sleeve? He says Labour don't have a plan. Do they? What are the issues, and who are the people that will decide this election?  To talk about all this and more on The Political Fourcast we’re joined by Conservative MP and former Levelling Up minister Dehenna Davison, Labour’s former Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw and pollster Luke Tryl.   Produced by Silvia Maresca, Calum Fraser, Shaheen Sattar, Rob Thompson and Nick Jackson.  

Are Labour and the Conservatives already prepping for the election?  Both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak are certainly behaving like they are. The Labour leader launched his first steps to change Britain, but will that help the party on the doorstep? And this week saw more culture war issues being flagged by Conservatives. Rishi Sunak wrote about his horror at disturbing gender ideology being taught in schools as the government brought in new guidance and rules banning classroom teaching about contested gender identity issues. To talk about this, on The Political Fourcast we're joined by Caroline Nokes, the Conservative Chair of Parliament's Women and Equalities Committee, and from Labour, the Former Culture Secretary, Ben Bradshaw, who is stepping down at the next election.   Produced by Silvia Maresca, Annie La Vespa, Rob Thompson and Nick Jackson.  

For the second time in a fortnight, the Conservatives have been dealt a jaw-dropping blow - another MP has defected. This time, it is Dover MP and rightwinger, Natalie Elphicke, who crossed the floor moments before Prime Minister's Questions, to join forces with the opposition.     The move has certainly sparked anger and confusion for both Labour and the Tories, and Keir Starrmer is being grilled by members of his own shadow cabinet over why he accepted Elphicke into the party.    Defections are a rare occurrence in politics, so what do the past two in two weeks tell us about Rishi Sunak’s ability to deliver at the next general election?    In this episode of The Political Fourcast, we speak to the SNP’s deputy leader in the Commons Mhairi Black, who’s announced she will stand down at the next election. And former Education Secretary Justine Greening, who had the Tory whip withdrawn after opposing Boris Johnson over Brexit in 2019.    They talk to us about why an MP might make the decision to defect from their political party, if a defection signals a political shift, and whether the UK needs political reform away from a first past the post system.    Produced by Silvia Maresca, Shaheen Sattar, Rob Thompson and Nick Jackson.

The Conservatives are facing their worst local election results in 40 years - and yet it looks like Rishi Sunak may cling on after Ben Houchen secured a victory in the Tees Valley mayoral vote.  But what next for the Conservative Party? Are they now in the worst of all worlds with a wounded leader facing defeat at the general election or can Rishi Sunak turn it around?  To discuss all this and more we are joined by Spectator editor Fraser Nelson, former Conservative Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and Labour’s Leader in the House of Lords Baroness Angela  Smith. Produced by Silvia Maresca, Calum Fraser, Rob Thomson, Nick Jackson.  

Rishi Sunak has pledged he'll ramp up Britain's defence budget and announced a £500 million military aid package to Ukraine, in the same week a long-awaited $61billion aid package from the US passed through Congress and the Senate. But what is the West’s end game for Ukraine? Is there enough in these aid packages to turn the tide of the war as Russia appears to have gained the upper hand? What more can the West do? Here to discuss this on The Political Fourcast is former Armed Forces Minister James Heappey and shadow defence minister, Baroness Anderson. They talk to us about why today's young people in the UK may end up caught up in a future war, how Trump’s second Presidency could change the war and what this all means for the upcoming General Election. Produced by Alice Wagstaffe, Silvia Maresca, Shaheen Sattar, Rob Thomson, Calum Fraser, Nick Jackson.

This week on The Political Fourcast, another scandal hits the Tories - Mark Menzies MP loses the whip as the Conservative Party investigates claims that he misused campaign funds. He allegedly made a late night call to ask for money to pay off "bad people". He disputes the allegations and senior Tory MPs are telling voters not to rush to judgement. With upcoming local elections and a looming general election, the allegations risk damaging the party in government.   But is today’s story just another example in a long line of MPs from all parties flouting the rules? Since 2019, there have been at least 10 cases of Conservative MPs that have either been suspended or quit over allegations of misconduct. Similarly, across the same time period, there have been at least four Labour MPs accused of misconduct, along with one from the SNP and one from Plaid Cymru. This week, we speak to the SNP’s deputy leader in the Commons Mhairi Black, who’s announced she will stand down at the next election. And former Education Secretary Justine Greening, who had the Tory whip withdrawn after opposing Boris Johnson over Brexit in 2019. They talk to us about mistrust in politics, and why this “jaw dropping” scandal could be a “plague” on politics at large, and confirm what voters think of Westminster’s politicians. Produced by Silvia Maresca, Shaheen Sattar, Rob Thomson, Calum Fraser, Nick Jackson.  

This week on The Political Fourcast - as war rumbles on in Gaza, we discuss how foreign policy affects domestic politics, and how the government’s decisions during the Israel/Gaza conflict could influence the outcome of an upcoming general election. Should Lord Cameron divulge the legal advice he has received over supplying arms to Israel? Why is the Labour party ignoring pleas to call for a ceasefire? And why did the Foreign Secretary make a house call to Donald Trump on his recent trip to the US?  Joining Krishnan Guru-Murthy and political editor Gary Gibbon this week to discuss all this and more; Lord Charlie Falconer, a politician who was at the heart of Tony Blair's government the last time the party had a major falling out with its supporters over foreign policy during the Iraq war, and the Tory peer Nicky Morgan, a long-time ally of former Prime Minister and current Foreign Secretary David Cameron. Produced by Alice Wagstaffe, Silvia Maresca, Rob Thomson.