Claim OwnershipThe Grumpy Strategists
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© Strategic Analysis Australia 2023
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The Grumpy Strategists chat about defence and security issues, from an Australian perspective. We say simple things about complicated issues that help cut through the politics and careful bureaucratic talking points. Critical but constructive conversations about the big security and technology issues affecting our world. RSSVERIFY
57 Episodes
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Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Myroshnychenko speaks with a grumpy strategist about his path from business to diplomacy, & the surreal experience of families - including his - like fighting in the Russian military during WW2 & now fighting against Russian invaders in their homeland. They cover connections between the war & our part of the world - North Korea and China's direct support to Russia & also Russia's efforts to grow its military relationship with Indonesia. The episode sets out the value of a new partnership on military and industrial cooperation between Australia and Ukraine. Ukraine needs support but is also now a source of military technical advantage.
Episode 1 of the Great Debates -on topics in Australia that need discussion but are reduced to shouting matches from inside closed bubbles. Green shirted Marcus is Mr Renewables and black suited Michael is the pro-nuclear Darth Vader of the episode. Listen to hear if a civil chat about radioactive waste, windfarms and Australia's energy mix is possible.
One Grumpy Strategist talks with Beaten Zone Ventures boss Steve Baxter. They set out Steve's journey from the Army to business success in the tech world, to now running an outfit all about investing in smart Australian companies making the best defence tech on the planet - for everyone but Australia....Changing that could be as simple - but big - as adopting the Ukrainian military's almost gamified 'Brave1' model - a market-based program that has soldiers using an online shop and tokens earned by destroying particular Russian systems. Delegation, empowerment and speed brings results.
SAA's Marcus Hellyer talks with Rob Kremer, Kinexus' Director and Defence Sector lead about defence industry prospects and pressures. Rob puts the workforce demands by Defence into a wider economic and societal perspective to set out effective strategies for government and companies. Australian cities have quite different skills concentrations and demographics that flavour the necessary approaches.
Michael Shoebridge talks with Paddy Gregg, CEO of Austal, about the company's history as a builder of commercial and military vessels for decades now. We discuss its stocked up order book both here & in the US, and the future, including Australia's general purpose frigates. Austal USA is making command modules for US Virginia Class submarines and is the biggest revenue earner for Austal, while at Henderson, Austal is ramping up fast with landing craft orders. Hanwha's bid is covered, with Paddy giving his perspective as the CEO of a publicly-listed company.
From a small sporting shooting goods supplier in 1973, NIOA Group has grown to be a major munitions and weapons supplier to Australia's military and law enforcement organisations. Robert Nioa talks with SAA's Michael Shoebridge about the last 28 years building an Australian prime with industrial heft. They discuss how Australia's strategic environment and new partnerships like AUKUS provide the direction to NIOA's business, along with its deepening commercial connections into the US and with capable Australian and international partners.
In 12 years, Adam Gilmour has grown Gilmour Space to be able to design and build its own space launch rockets, satellite buses to carry users' payloads & now is running his own space launch facility in Queensland. He talks about the business principles that let Gilmour Space thrive & move fast, and why sovereign launch and space capacity matters to Australia's security.
This new Grumpy Strategists series talks with makers & leaders in Australian industry who are key to our security. Tom Loveard, the Chief Technology Officer and one of the founders of C2 Robotics is our guest. He tells us how 25 years of hard work & research has given us the 'overnight breakthrough' that is the Speartooth long range undersea unmanned vehicle. It can be made in thousands & available well before 2030 - which would start to give the Australian military mass relevant to the huge Indo Pacific.
Marcus is back from Australia's croc-filled Outback. He catches up with Michael on global events: America's end to a Baltic states security initiative and the Trump Administrations' prep work for a Xi-Trump meeting - a Tik Tok half deal & pauses to a $400m US military aid package for Taiwan. They go Premier Allan's extraordinary connection of Victoria to Beijing's education system, and look into recent Australian Defence announcements on Anduril's Ghost Shark & the even more elusive Henderson Maritime Precinct. King Charles' odd early commissioning of the UK's 6th Astute class sub after 12 years of construction rounds out this 50th Anniversary Episode.
In Episode 49, Marcus and Michael go over the lessons for Australia from Europe's approach to dealing with an unreliable US over the war in Ukraine. They discuss the now disturbing centralisation of authority in the single person of the President in the US, and fly a new policy kite for growing the alliance in a time of Trump - reinventing US extended deterrence by requesting deployment of the US National Guard & Marines onto Australian streets. You heard it here first. The episode ends with the tragic tale of Richard Marles' empty-handed visit to Washington.
Before Dr Hellyer jets off to Samoa, the Grumpy Strategists go Grand - Australian grand strategy looked at through its two enduring pillars of: 1. economic prosperity by mainlining into China's economy, and 2. a strategic pillar that relies on American security. Great stuff for the last 4 decades of 'rules based global order'ing, not so great for the competitive power-based world we're in now. We'll get back to drilling into all things Aust Defence shortly....maybe.
The Grumpy Strategists drill into the facts behind Australian Govt announcements on drones to find disappointment: celebrating $16.7m on counter drone systems while spending $11m per day on AUKUS puts things into perspective, as does the fact Australia had roughly 700 drones in 2024 while the Russians fire 800 a night at Ukraine. They try to bridge the huge gap between Aust-UK AUKUS announcements & the UK's actual capacity to build subs & deploy its military. Then Marcus surfaces from trawling through past years' Pentagon budget papers to find that US sub deliveries have slipped back on average three years since AUKUS was announced.....instead of building more, faster.
The Grumpies go over an Audit report revealing the comprehensive, systemic failures of Defence, the Navy and its contractors to maintain and operate the Navy's two biggest ships. The obvious question is how can the Navy be capable 'stewards' operating and maintaining nuclear powered subs? But there's the good news that 8 years of continuous naval shipbuilding have delivered one, mostly harmless, patrol vessel to the Navy, and our Army has test fired HIMARS. The episode ends with the Grumpies checking in with Penny Wong and PM Albanese's big but confusing speeches before his China trip. Bandwagoning begins as free-riding continues.
With the UK Eurovision entry "What the Hell Just Happpppppened??" fitting Australia's reaction to the Trump AUKUS review, Marcus and Michael discuss the two Oz views: "PANIC it's over!!!!" & 'There's nothing to see, IT'S ALL PERFECTLY NATURAL" bunch - and set out why both are wrong. Politics, security, industrial capacity & cash are all at work here. This review won't be the last, particularly with 1. Anthony Albanese asserting his sovereign right to free ride on America while dissing Donald Trump, 2. US sub production numbers falling not rising, and 3. the UK's Keir Starmer choosing this moment to make UK submarine challenges 500% harder by doubling the UK's desired production rate while also building much bigger boats. What can go wrong?
Back from teaming with Dennis Rodman to help Kim Jong Un fix his naval troubles, the Grumpies get into myth busting on defence spending & on drones. They examine 6 common Myth Takes on defence spending & capability - a common feature is they all excuse inaction. Similar manoeuvres are used by those who still insist Australia's sleepy response to drone warfare is masterful & strategic. They finish with a look at the UK's new Defence Strategic Review - oops: Strategic Defence Review. It's not just a rebadge of Australia's DSR with additional buzzwords. Of course it's not. And it's not heroically courageous on submarine ambitions either.
Taiwan's representative in Australia, Douglas Hsu, talks with a Grumpy Strategist about the World Health Assembly, now as a time to reinforce multilateral & international organisations, and paths to reverse Beijing's attempts to isolate & intimidate Taiwan. They do something unusual: look at the texts that say what the UN actually said about recognition of the PRC (no mention of Taiwan) and how Australia's text recognising the PRC in 1972 does not sign up to Beijing's 'One China' formula - instead it 'acknowledges the position of the Chinese Government that Taiwan is a province of the PRC'. Words - and memory - matter, it turns out.
Marcus and Michael set out fast moving developments in military use of drones. they're happening not just in Ukraine, but in Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Singapore and the UK (just not in Australia). Then it's a dive into the Acting US Navy head's startling view that a US airstrike into Somalia was the biggliest in history. Then the Grumpies look at the investigation into the fatal Taipan helicopter crash, the Audit Office's scathing but calm assessment of Defence's failure to implement its own industry policy. The episode ends with some of the 'so what's' from revelations that Democrat seniors and White House staff worked around Joe Biden's obvious fragilities while assuring everyone they didn't exist.
The Grumpy Strategists road test Incat's latest product, the 130m electric ship "China Zorrilla", while assessing the whiplash shifts in American engagement with the Middle East. They contrast the ambitious 'Golden Dome' homeland defence project announced by Pres Trump with its lowballed price tag and courageously aspirational delivery date of 2029 with the Pentagon's troubled ICBM renewal program, the chronically delayed & over budget $141bn Sentinel program. The bright spot isn't data on the failed US campaign against the Houthis, it's the success of Aussie companies like Incat, Gilmour Space and EOS.
Marcus beams in from the Vatican after running the numbers for Pope Bob, while Michael fights his way through the clouds of smug spilling from the re-elected Labor government and a deeply relieved, complacent Defence bureaucracy. It turns out that the defeated Liberal-National coalition parties had a campaigning gift - unfortunately, it was in making Mr Albanese's performance look good. The Grumpies discuss what new polling reveals about the growing gap between government & the population on AUKUS, and the performative politics that is Trump 2.0
Marcus and Michael go through the -sparse - highlights of Australia's election campaign from a defence perspective - the Coalition's policy release has shifted the defence permafrost on funding and capabilities, and added a note of required urgency. But polls show a collapse in Australians seeing the US as a reliable ally. They also show reluctance to raise defence spending. Meanwhile, in DC the DOGE chainsaw has bogged in the swamp and Pentagon savings are turning into Pentagon spending, just why isn't clear....Also available as a Grumpies YouTube video podcast.
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