The HC Commodities Podcast

Ten percent of the global tanker fleet has gone dark and the number is growing. What is the Dark Fleet? Why does it exist and why is it growing? Who is using the fleet and who owns it? What are the risks for the market, the environment and traders? And what does a shadow fleet mean for world security and criminal enterprises? Our guest is David Tannenbaum, Director at Blackstone Compliance  Solutions, a sanctions and anti -money laundering advisory group, providing support to financial institutions and commodity trades alike and a Partner at Polestar Global, a sanctions and maritime intelligence firm where he runs the threat intelligence group.https://www.blackstonecompliance.com/www.encoinsights.comwww.hcgroup.global 

A brief final episode of 2024. Host Paul Chapman reflects on some of the key themes of the year, offers his deepest thanks to listeners, guests and his colleagues at HC Group (www.hcgroup.global) and Enco Insights (www.encoinsights.com) and looks at the coming year and goals for the podcast. Please do leave a positive review on the platform you are listening on to help support the show and our work. 

A still timely discussion as the Federal Reserve comes under pressure to decrease rates... How low interest rates since the financial crisis have caused inequality, populism and inflation. Christmas re-release of one of host Paul Chapman's favorite discussions. Award-winning, financial journalist and historian Edward Chancellor join us to discuss interest rates and the impact on the commodities sector. Interest rates – the price of money and time – have been unnaturally low since the global financial crisis. This has led to a profound impact on finance and society. Global corporates found financial engineering more “profitable” than focusing on products and operations. Assets inflated and inequality widened. In the commodities world, the cost of carry and cost of finance, was essentially zero. Energy tech plays were awash in money and valuations sky high. Rates are now rising and those same engineered corporates are becoming zombies. China risks economic Armageddon as the global carry trade ends. Assets prices are falling and financially stressed commodity traders, now face higher rates. Edward argues higher rates will return the world to profitable growth and risk allocation unless political will to reverse rates wins…

The skillsets required to be in a commodity trading team have always been evolving. However, that evolution is accelerating in the wake of new technologies and especially AI. In this episode we trace the changing roles and skills traders have needed over the last century and what the future holds as AI becomes ever more involved in the day to day activities of a trading desk. What are the skillsets of the past and their future? Are they fundamentally different? How is AI already affecting teams?  And how will AI shape the teams, careers and opportunities within the sector?  Our guest is Daf Davies, long time commodity trader, and founder and CEO of Deus AI – a consulting firm focused on preparing companies for the commodity trading future.

Will nuclear fusion change the world and if so how far away is it? What is fusion power? What are the technological, regulatory and financial developments that are accelerating our path to it? What has changed that has meant private companies are now racing to develop it alongside governments? And what will it mean for fusion power to be deployed at scale. Our guest is Jay Brister, an independent investor and consultant with over 40 years experience in the nuclear sector who has focused on fusion over the last five years

Award winning journalist and author, Vince Beiser, joins us again to talk about his new book; Power Metal: The Race for the Resources that will Shape the Future. The energy transition consumes immense amounts of critical metals and minerals. What are the trade-offs being made in mining and processing them? How and where is recycling of these metals ongoing? What are the human stories and impacts behind this enormous industry and what might the solutions be to make the transition more sustainable and achievable? Vince’s book is out and available in all good book stores and published by Penguin Random House. 

Weather is a key driver in energy markets – from trading in the day ahead markets to weather events that can disrupt operations for months on end. Accurate forecasting has always been an edge. New technologies are making some aspects of forecasting ever more accurate. At the same time, climate change is making extreme events more frequent and significant. What keeps a meteorologist up at night? Why do energy traders employ meteorologists? How is technology changing the profession? Our guest is Matt Lanza, who has over 20 year’s experience working on trading floors as a meteorologist . 

In the wake of the energy crisis and the demands of the energy transition, the EU has enacted a series of regulations, and considering more, in the European energy markets. These will bring changes to how power, carbon and gas markets operate and some proposals under consideration could have profound effects. What are these changes? What is the impact on how markets operate and the opportunity for participants?  And are we entering a period of re-regulation and intervention after the steady march of liberalization over the past 25 years? To discuss this and more is our guest Bart Verest, the Lead Partner at E&C Consultants, an international consultancy focused on energy procurement and markets with their headquarters in Belgium. Bart is an expert in energy markets and energy contracts. 

Metals have had an interesting year so far. Prices have been volatile along with sentiment and narratives. Trading Houses have been rapidly expanding metals trading teams and funds have piled in. In this episode, David Wilson, Senior Commodities Desk Strategist at BNP Paribas Markets 360, takes an in depth look at the reality behind these trends across copper, aluminum, nickel, gold and the battery metals in 2024 and what that may presage for 2025.

May you live in interesting times - as the proverb goes. Will those times continue? On October 16th, at the Yale Club in New York City, we held our latest Live Event hosted by ITFA with additional sponsorship from Brown Brothers Harriman, The Mercury Group, Goba Capital and HC Group. The commodities sector has seen unprecedented volatility. What has that meant for the sector’s ecosystem? How has it shaped the opportunities and risks? Is the volatility structural or ephemeral? A group of leaders from across the sector  joined our panel to discuss in front of an audience of 150 industry participants. Rob Walsh, CEO of IMI,  William Tully,Head of Business Development, BBH Commodities & Logistics, Sunil George, Head of Client Financing Solutions for the Americas at Louis Dreyfus Company, Todd Lynady, Regional Head of Financial Solutions @ WTW  and Alexandre Lacreu Chief Underwriting Officer, Coface North America moderated by podcast host Paul Chapman.

In mid -November, in Azerbaijan at COP29, momentous decisions could be made that would advance the carbon markets globally. What are they and what are the chances of that happening and what is the state of the carbon market today? Our guest is Nick Marshall, co -founder of TASC, a project developer focused on channeling funds into carbon reduction projects around the world. 

Commodities sit at the heart of global trade and as such are at the center of the rise of protectionism. After a long period of globalization and ever freer trade, there is a perceptible and growing shift back to mercantilism and protectionism. This is driven by great-power competition with the energy transition being a key driver. Tariffs, sanctions and direct market intervention are ever more commonplace. To discuss this trend, its causes and its impact on our sector is Alex Tuckett, Head of Economics at CRU, the independent commodity analytics, consulting and pricing agency. 

Utility scale batteries are proliferating across Western power grids, particularly in the US. And far more are set to come. These batteries offer the ability to manage grids, especially with the influx of renewables, or make economic returns on trading around them. Yet, their very presence is changing the dynamics of power markets. What are these batteries, where are they placed and who owns them? How and who trades around them and what do they mean for the future of power markets? All this and more is answered by our guest Casey Keller, Head of Assets and Development at Caerus Commodities.    

Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered an avalanche of economics sanctions by the West. What followed was an undeniably world-changing financial experiment that risked throwing the world into a devastating recession, testing the very limits of economic warfare and Western cohesion. Commodities sit at the heart of this story with profound ramifications for the global sector. But is it succeeding? Our guest is Russia expert and veteran Bloomberg investigative journalist Stephanie Baker who’s new book - Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia - explains in fascinating detail how this furious shadow-war unfolded: its causes, how it is being executed, and its ability to affect Russia and the course of history.   

Over the next two years, the US is set to export some 12bcf/d extra of LNG. What does this mean for the US market? Where will it go? And can supply keep up? Will there be sufficient demand in Europe? And what does this mean for traders - is a global footprint now a must?  Are the gas markets entering a new truly globalized era where US supply sets the price? All that and more is discussed in this special live event recording of The HC Commodities Podcast held on September 19th in Houston. The event was hosted by Six One Commodities and co-sponsored by Bridge Alternatives and Phillips66. Our panelists were Harrison DeStefano, CCO of Six One Commodities, Nathan Arentz, MD, Skylar Capital Management, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Global Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy and Graham Fisher, Head of Natural Gas Trading at P66. To hear about future events, including one in NYC on October 16, sign up to the HC Group Newsletter.

Shale Oil & Gas has turned the US into an energy power house over the last 15 years. Will it disappear as quickly as it arrived or will it set to US apart for years to come? Within its short life, it has evolved quickly and our guest Matthew Bernstein now characterizes it as Shale 4.0. What were the previous iterations in participants, economics and output and what does the future hold? Matthew  Bernstein is the Manager of Shale Analytics at Rystad Energy, the independent energy data and analytics firm.  

A commodity close to many of our hearts, but how does it end up in our mugs? Where is it grown, how is it processed and who trades it? How do the derivative contracts work and what might the future hold as climate, geopolitics and consumer tastes evolve? Our guest is Charlie Stephens, President of Amarella Café, an independent specialty coffee trader in the Americas. Still in his twenties, Charlie also shares his story on how he launched his own trading company. 

Is the commodities world lagging behind in AI adoption? And if so, how should the sector’s leadership think about applications and use? What even is it and how is it being used by other sectors? Our guest is Seth Dobrin, CEO of QuantmA1, an AI consultancy and General Partner at 1Infinity Ventures, a VC fund. Seth was former Global Chief AI Officer at IBM and Head of Digital Strategies at Monsanto. 

As we head toward the end of the year and into 2025 where are oil prices headed? In this episode we recap the major events and decisions since COVID and the key drivers of oil prices. Then we turn to the outlook for the next two years. What is the supply and demand picture? What could OPEC’s upcoming decision mean – could a new price war start? And what are the potential disrupters in a more volatile geopolitical landscape. Returning to the show is Aldo Spanjer, Senior Commodity Strategist at BNP Paribas.To attend our upcoming HC Commodities Podcast Live Event please RSVP here: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/hc-commodities-podcast-houston

Brazil has been steadily deregulating its power market over the last two decades. This combined with one of the largest share of renewables in the generation mix of any advanced economy, alongside hydrocarbon production in the ‘Pre-salt’ off the coast, has made it a hugely dynamic market with lots of opportunity for participants, both domestic and international. What is Brazil’s generation mix and power market structure? How volatile is the market and why? What pressures do participants face? How liberalization survived multiple political changes and what might the future hold? Our guest is Adriana Waltrick, CEO of SPIC, the fifth largest power generation company in the country. To attend our upcoming HC Commodities Podcast Live Event on September 19 in Houston please visit: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/hc-commodities-podcast-houston