The Julia La Roche Show

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the Fed minutes. In this episode, DiMartino Booth highlights how the Fed quietly reclassified nearly $300 billion in loans on a Friday afternoon with no comment, shifting them from stodgy commercial categories into the "black box" of non-depository financial institution (NDFI) lending now totaling $1.7 trillion. She draws parallels to Enron as First Brands bankruptcy exposes what appeared to be an auto supplier was actually a financial using off-balance sheet vehicles, with subprime delinquency rates likely double reported figures. Elsewhere, Booth warns youth unemployment hit 1988 levels but from lack of demand not supply as companies blindly adopt AI without hiring, leaving the Class of 2025 worse off than 2024. She argues gold has become a "meme stock" with Wall Street firms' price targets signaling contrarian risk, while the government shutdown leaves the Fed "flying blind" without official data for their October 29th meeting.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/07352116550:00 Hawkish Fed minutes - knife in Miran's back1:44 Fed insider on Miran controversy2:48 Did Fed want September cut?5:08 Shutdown means Fed flying blind October6:04 Gold and NASDAQ flying - unusual7:03 Gold as meme stock - contrarian warning9:50 NDFI loans - $1.7 trillion black box12:21 $250B loan reclassification bombshell13:14 Fed reclassified quietly on Friday14:17 First brands like Enron revelation16:21 Off balance sheet financing returns18:25 Subprime delinquencies likely double20:15 Is this systemic? Fed doesn't know21:28 Fed won't move without official data22:22 Challenger data horror at Fed24:52 Charts need gray recession bars25:12 Fed put born October 198727:32 Youth unemployment demand crisis30:02 AI adoption without hiring32:24 Parents worry kids made redundant33:20 First five years determine career35:48 Not sending kids to college37:11 Put faces on repo statistics38:47 Markets masking K economy39:01 Lowercase i economy concept

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, explains why Americans remain uncomfortable with gold despite it hitting new highs - it implies dollar weakness after 150 years of reserve currency dominance. He reveals FDR seized the Federal Reserve's gold in 1933 with little compensation, while today US gold allocation sits under 1% of portfolios versus growing central bank accumulation. Whalen defends his call for earlier Fed cuts. He sees gold reaching $5,000+ by end of 2026 as US allocations shift from under 1% toward 2%, while warning the average person without assets continues getting screwed as the Fed will eventually monetize Treasury issuance through financial repression.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point4:17 Monetary Metals ad read5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out19:54 Taking profits22:36 Watching the herd mentality25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, presents his business cycle framework showing leading indicators crossed in November 2024 (Titanic hit iceberg), but imminent recession indicators haven't triggered yet (ship not sinking). He sees a final blow-off top with S&P potentially hitting 7,500 and NASDAQ 28,000 before a potential 50% crash that would still leave valuations at third-highest ever with market cap to GDP at unprecedented 220%. Zeberg warns gold is in a "mini bubble" front-running deflationary collapse and will decline when dollar bottoms, despite $35,000 long-term target. His most provocative thesis: after deflationary bust, Fed money printing will cause stagflation because "Mrs. Johnson" will hoard rate cut savings rather than spend, while Fed remains "way too late" using lagging indicators like "driving by looking in rear window."Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR2010:00 Welcome and introduction - Henrik Zeberg 1:13 Zeberg Business Cycle framework - four phases explained3:28 Leading indicators crossed November 2024 - Titanic hit iceberg5:43 Imminent recession indicators - credit spreads, yield spreads, initial claims8:39 Markets don't lead - unemployment bottoms before stock market tops13:52 Market cap to GDP at 220% - unprecedented bubble territory16:08 Elliott Wave targets - S&P 7,500, NASDAQ 28,000 possible18:40 Singapore index - canary in coal mine for global economy19:17 Everything bubble explained - rate suppression distorted all valuations22:44 Most dangerous when people don't recognize bubble24:37 Fed micromanaging creates inefficient capital allocation27:05 S&P could fall 50% to 3,350 and still be third highest valuation ever29:59 Gold mini bubble - front-running deflationary collapse32:54 Dollar bottom coming - gold decline ahead despite long-term bullishness34:03 Own physical gold but don't buy more right now37:05 Stagflation thesis - deflationary bust then high inflation42:49 Mrs. Johnson won't spend rate cut savings - she'll hoard it44:57 Fed way too late - rearranging deck chairs on Titanic48:43 Housing affordability 51:01 Central bank hubris 53:55 Fed using lagging indicators - driving by looking in rear window57:42 Peak euphoria warning - when it feels best, be most careful

Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with nearly $3 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and gold's surge to record highs. In this episode, Merk explains how "fringe" fiscal sustainability concerns have moved mainstream, driving gold to new highs above $3,700. He provides a gold mining primer, distinguishing between speculative junior miners and established producers, while focusing on developers with proven management teams as the "scarcest resource." Merk criticizes the Fed's evolution into micromanaging the economy through its "toolkit," arguing this creates inefficient capital allocation and enables political irresponsibility. He notes gold's correlation breakdown due to dollar weaponization and sees continued upside potential, though warns against overexposure, emphasizing that the best investment advice is to "invest in yourself" and control spending.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/juliaLinks:https://www.merkinvestments.com/https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction - Axel Merk returns after 6 months0:38 AUM growth from $2B to $3B reflects gold space interest1:29 Liberation Day framework - tariffs impact financial flows3:04 Fringe views moving mainstream amid elevated valuations3:49 Long-term fiscal sustainability concerns driving gold investment6:08 Fed micromanaging economy enables political irresponsibility7:47 Gold's parabolic rise - perception vs reality of "barbarous relic"10:23 Gold mining dynamics - junior miners haven't had explosive rally yet13:10 Gold Mining 101 - conservative vs speculative investor profiles15:23 Big miners' over/under-investment cycle post-financial crisis17:19 Developer focus - scarcest resource is good management18:31 Junior vs major miners - venture capitalists with hard hats21:14 Gold correlation breakdown - weaponization changed dynamics24:37 Fed micromanagement critique - toolkit means intervention26:48 Inefficient capital allocation favors big companies27:58 Preventing recessions vs natural business cycles31:58 Gold as 20-year hedge - glad you had it in hindsight32:32 Silver complexity - industrial use creates volatility36:02 Investment advice - invest in yourself first, control spending

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Howell presents his global liquidity cycle framework showing markets are late in a 35-month bull run that began in late 2022, with early warning signs emerging in repo markets as SOFR spreads spike. He warns of a massive debt refinancing wall hitting 2026-2029 from COVID-era borrowing, while the Fed transitions from QE to "Treasury QE" under Bessent's direction to fund real economy priorities. Howell's most striking thesis involves gold price targets of $10,000 by the late 2030s and $25,000 by 2052 based on structural deficit math, driven by both US monetary inflation and China's liquidity expansion to escape its debt crisis. He advocates for monetary inflation hedges like gold and Bitcoin as central banks deliberately weaken currencies in a "Make America Great" strategy against China.Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/30303929020:00 Welcome and introduction - Michael Howell returns to discuss markets1:14 Global liquidity cycle framework - 5-6 year cycle approaching top3:41 Late cycle positioning - thinking end game vs beginning6:06 Debt-liquidity integration - 80% of lending now collateral-backed8:46 Early warning signs - SOFR spreads and repo market tensions11:49 Debt-liquidity ratio analysis - refinancing crisis ahead14:15 COVID debt echo effect - massive refinancing wall 2026-202917:04 Fed balance sheet slowdown - similar to early 2022 conditions18:51 Treasury QE emergence - Bessent directing liquidity to real economy20:20 Stablecoin monetization - credit providers buying government debt22:36 Plain vanilla cycle - everything following normal script25:00 Asset allocation phases - rebound, calm, speculation, turbulence29:20 Gold breakout analysis - disconnect from real rates since 202231:45 Structural deficit math - mandatory spending blowout ahead33:42 Gold price targets - $10,000 by late 2030s, $25,000 by 205235:56 Monetary vs high street inflation - currency devaluation vs CPI39:44 Fed independence questioned - Treasury QE running the show41:51 Make America Great currency war - deliberate dollar weakening44:08 China's gold strategy - escaping debt crisis through monetization46:33 Chinese liquidity expansion - driving global commodity reflation50:05 Final thoughts - late cycle caution, gold as monetary hedge

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show for an in-person episode to recap the FOMC, discuss the state of the economy, housing, and his highest conviction ideas.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point4:17 Monetary Metals ad read5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out19:54 Taking profits22:36 Watching the herd mentality25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the September FOMC. DiMartino Booth argues the Fed "chose independence over economy" with its 25bp cut, as Waller and Bowman sacrificed potential Fed chair positions by not dissenting for larger cuts. She presents compelling evidence the US has created zero jobs since April in the core private sector and calls a double-dip recession starting Q2 2024. DiMartino Booth's thesis is that "the Fed put is dead" - if the Fed goes to zero bound again, the 40% of stocks owned by 70+ year-olds will be forced to sell, stress-testing passive flows for the first time in history. She advocates reforming the Fed's structure, eliminating the conflicting dual mandate, and warns that unknown leverage in private markets represents the new systemic fault line.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/07352116550:00 Welcome and introduction - Danielle in studio post-FOMC0:36 Fed chose independence over economy - 25bp cut reaction2:32 Waller's non-dissent - sacrificing Fed chair shot for integrity3:46 US created zero jobs since April in core private sector5:43 Monetary Metals ad read6:43 Double dip recession call - started Q2 20248:53 Jobs typo in North Carolina data - continuing claims actually rose11:14 Top 10% now account for 49% of consumption12:21 Double dip recession explained - historical 1980-81 parallel14:31 1.4 million full-time jobs lost since January16:08 CEOs investing in AI to cut workers, not add jobs17:20 Fed's dual mandate doesn't make sense - inherently conflicting20:16 The Fed put is dead - new book thesis23:02 Zero bound means boomers sell stocks - passive never stress tested27:24 Fed structure needs reform - too many PhDs, need practitioners29:01 Lehman anniversary - Fed violated law with MBS purchases31:42 Private markets are new fault line - leverage unknown32:32 Final thoughts - give peace a chance, listen to each other

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show his monthly appearance. In this episode, Whalen reports taking a risk-off position after 30% gains this year, noting Wall Street hedge funds are similarly going net short amid concerns about Treasury market stability. He warns that upcoming Supreme Court tariff decisions could force costly refunds while the Treasury faces mounting deficits from recent legislation. Whalen criticizes the Fed's "reckless" quantitative easing policies and predicts the dollar will lose reserve currency status as countries seek alternatives, leading to inevitable inflation as the US monetizes its debt. He sees parallels to 1924 Florida real estate speculation but expects a coming housing reset that could take prices back to 2020-21 levels, creating opportunities for patient buyers.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen returns for monthly appearance0:56 Big picture outlook - Trump administration personalities not getting along2:47 Risk off positioning - took 30% gains, markets losing steam5:11 Wall Street going risk off - hedge funds net short after taking gains8:15 Fed meeting outlook - rate cut uncertain despite expectations10:53 Supreme Court tariff decision - could force Treasury refunds12:57 Treasury Secretary's Fed criticism - "reckless gain of function experiments"15:48 Treasury market crisis risk - biggest worry for Chris18:03 Fed rate cut impact - quarter point fine, half point signals recession19:45 Pretend and extend - massive forbearance in commercial real estate20:04 Consumer health - okay for now but housing reset coming23:08 Gold's changing nature - now buying on dollar/inflation concerns24:25 Dollar losing reserve status - will be one of many currencies26:22 Reserve currency burden - domestic inflationary component27:39 Real estate speculation - like 1924 Florida land boom28:53 Coming housing blow-off - prices back to 2020-21 levels

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 285 to discuss the economy and markets.Sponsored by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ted warns that markets are extremely expensive at 23x future earnings while the economy is flatlining. He expects coming Fed rate cuts to be an Arthur Burns-style policy mistake, creating a window to sell long bonds before higher structural inflation takes hold over the next 5-10 years. Oakley advocates significant cash positions (his firm holds 50% short-term treasuries) and exposure to commodities, energy, and gold as hedges against dollar decline and inflation. He sees concerning parallels to late 1990s day-trading mania among retail investors and emphasizes risk management over aggressive growth, particularly for older investors who need to preserve wealth rather than chase returns.With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro0:51 Big picture outlook - market extremely expensive 2:10 Disconnect between economy and markets - flatlining economy vs rising stocks3:20 48 years in markets - emotions never change at highs and lows4:43 Fed rate cuts coming - Arthur Burns mistake repeating6:24 Sell long bonds opportunity - inflation higher for next 5-10 years9:08 Most people don't know what's in their portfolios10:27 Rate cuts won't significantly impact 30-year rates12:02 Can Fed solve inflation? Only through Volcker-style aggressive tightening13:28 Jobs report 14:20 Recession outlook - wouldn't hurt to clean up system leverage15:52 Retail investor activity - zero commissions created day trading18:22 Warning signs from individual investors - last in, last out19:49 Liquidity allocation by age - different strategies for different ages22:49 Risk management key - never lose a lot of money26:59 Finding opportunities - screening 300 good companies29:45 Current allocation - 50% short-term treasuries across strategies31:48 Gold and bonds relationship - hard assets hedge against dollar decline33:48 Commodities outlook - 25-year lows present opportunity36:15 Biggest surprise this year - tariff costs not fully passed to consumers37:54 Biggest risk - America not as strong militarily as we think39:11 Optimism in American resilience and young people's potential

Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for episode 284 where she delivers a stark assessment of the housing market. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 Welcome and introduction - Melody Wright returns to the show1:26 Big picture housing outlook - abysmal spring and summer selling seasons3:42 New vs existing home price inversion - builders offering major incentives5:02 First-time home buyers at record lows since 1980s tracking7:17 Investment-driven housing market - not about homeownership anymore9:33 Owner occupancy fraud - FHA program abuse by investors12:06 Mortgage fraud prevalence - 30% chance when investors involved13:46 Julia's first-time homebuyer dilemma - waiting for prices to correct15:04 Demographics and housing supply - 15.6 million boomers leaving by 203517:52 North Carolina housing market turning - hope for buyers19:15 The "Zest effect" - emotional attachment to home value estimates20:20 Housing bubble worse than 2008 - fueled by speculation22:13 Insurance crisis - 50% increases tipping people into delinquency23:05 October 1st FHA changes - loan modification program ending23:25 Spring/summer seasons characterized as "abysmal"24:20 Tracking 2008 patterns - seasonal price peak already passed26:28 Fed rate cuts unlikely to impact housing significantly28:13 Where to find Melody's work and parting thoughts

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, explains how markets have transitioned from a deflationary mindset to a debasement era over the past five years, driven primarily by massive fiscal spending rather than Fed policy. He argues that anger directed at the Fed should be redirected toward fiscal authorities who created unprecedented pro-cyclical deficits. Pies is benchmark long equities and bullish on hard assets like gold, having hit his $3,500 gold target this year. He believes Fed rate cuts will be inconsequential since fiscal dominance has already changed the paradigm, and core CPI won't fall below 3% due to tariff-driven goods inflation replacing the pre-pandemic goods deflation that helped achieve the 2% target. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/https://x.com/WarrenPiesTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction 1:18 Big picture framework 5:03 Behavioral changes in debasement era8:00 Fiscal dominance10:49 Jackson Hole speech 12:18 Labor market loosening 16:06 Immigration impact 17:31 Inflation stickiness 21:44 Widening perception gap in macro 26:23 Housing market outlook 30:07 Equity positioning 32:35 Bond allocation35:36 Gold outlook 37:06 Bitcoin allocation38:28 AI optimism 42:45 Closing remarks

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 282 to react to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Bianco argues Powell "caved" on rate cuts despite inappropriate conditions, with core inflation above 3% and markets at all-time highs. He explains that the pandemic permanently changed the economy, while Trump's immigration crackdown created net negative population growth for the first time in 50 years, making current job creation numbers of 35,000 monthly actually appropriate rather than concerning. Bianco warns that cutting rates with high inflation risks repeating last year's policy mistake when long-term rates rose anyway, and predicts tariffs will continue weekly rather than being one-time events. Despite concerns, he's optimistic about AI creating net positive job growth and transforming the economy.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:  BiancoResearch.com  BiancoAdvisors.com x.com/biancoresearch 0:00 Welcome and introduction0:38 Big picture reaction - Powell caved and will cut rates in September1:50 Why rate cuts aren't the right move - interest rates appropriately valued3:45 Inflation destroys economies - 35-40% of workers not getting 3% raises6:15 Path to 2% inflation - pandemic changed everything permanently8:59 Immigration's hidden impact - biggest driver of population growth10:26 Border shutdown changes everything - net negative immigration for first time11:53 Job creation numbers make sense - 35,000 jobs fine with no population growth12:50 Labor force participation - only way to boost jobs is wage inflation15:11 Long bond implications - tremendous flow into fixed income16:45 Risk profile investing - boomers should focus on fixed income17:48 Retail investor dominance - buying every dip since Liberation Day20:41 Will Powell cut? - 90% probability but market wants limited cuts22:00 Supply vs demand problem - for hire signs but no applicants24:03 Biggest risk - tariffs will continue weekly, not one-time event26:29 AI optimism - will eliminate 50 million jobs but create 70 million better ones

Peter Grandich, veteran of 40+ years on Wall Street, delivers his most dire warning yet, saying he's more concerned than during the 1987 crash, dot-com bubble, or 2008 financial crisis due to deteriorating political, social, and economic conditions. He describes a dangerous "K-economy" where the top 10% own 86% of assets while the bottom 50% use credit cards for basic necessities, creating fertile ground for socialist candidates. Grandich warns markets are in a final melt-up phase driven by passive investing and computer trading, with no political cohesion to address the next crisis. He favors gold and international stocks over US equities, predicts Trump's trade war will accelerate de-dollarization, and expects Fed rate cuts won't help if long-term rates stay elevated due to massive deficit spending.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro1:12 Big picture outlook - fourth time in 42-year career being this concerned3:04 K-economy explained - top 10% own 86% of assets, bottom 50% struggling6:53 Market structure changed - passive investing and computer trading dominate11:46 Trade war concerns - big stick vs olive branch approach12:58 Fed rate cuts coming but long-term rates may stay higher17:58 Significance of rate dynamics - mortgages tied to long-term rates21:26 1987 crash call - how he got the "Wiz Kid" nickname22:45 More concerned than ever - political, social, economic factors all worse26:12 Socialist candidates emerging - wealth inequality driving politics28:26 CPI manipulation - removing long-term care costs from index32:36 Investment allocation - favoring gold and international stocks34:28 Gold thesis - not early anymore but still has upside35:27 Critical minerals shortage - AI needs metals we don't have38:07 Faith-based perspective - Catholic faith guides decisions41:33 Trade war will backfire - accelerating de-dollarizationLinks: https://x.com/PeterGrandichhttps://petergrandich.com/https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September despite market expectations, with only a one-in-three chance due to FOMC dynamics and persistent inflation. He expects radical Fed reforms under Trump's nominee Steve Miran, including potentially moving the Fed out of Washington to restore independence. Whalen is bullish on gold as the world returns to sound money, sees housing prices weakening with a major reset possible in 2028, and highlights SoFi as outperforming Bitcoin threefold. He warns the biggest market risk comes from crypto platform implosions while remaining optimistic about Trump's policies despite concerns about subject matter expertise in new appointments.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen 1:42 Big picture outlook - Fed rate cuts unlikely despite expectations3:22 FOMC dynamics - need majority for rate cuts, only one in three chance for September5:09 Fed changes ahead - Steve Miran and radical reforms coming7:17 Fed independence and getting out of Washington politics8:39 Fiscal reality - Fed is the tail, Treasury is the dog9:57 Gold thesis - back to sound money as world's reserve asset11:40 Gold allocation - still early innings, most portfolios under 5%14:13 Jobs data skepticism - government shouldn't be gathering this data16:13 CPI and inflation - too much liquidity still in the system18:10 Markets still have room to run - buying opportunities ahead20:18 NYC mayoral race - Cuomo path to victory over Mamdani22:34 Wealth divide creating socialist candidates - inflation driving pain24:05 Fed in a corner - can't squeeze economy like Volcker did26:19 GSE outlook - Fannie/Freddie IPO coming in Q431:31 Housing market - prices weakening but reset coming in 202834:19 Investment opportunities - SoFi outperforming Bitcoin by 3x36:15 Biggest risks - crypto platforms about to implode

Dr. Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, provides his characteristically pessimistic outlook, arguing that while Asian economies have bottomed out, mature Western economies are turning down amid unsustainable asset price inflation. He believes the 40-year asset bubble since 1980-81 is ending and "everything will go down eventually," making preservation of capital more important than growth. Faber is ultra-bearish on all paper currencies, expects residential real estate to decline significantly, and warns the US debt situation "will end badly" - possibly through World War III. Despite being in the financial sector that benefits from money printing, he surprisingly agrees with Powell's reluctance to cut rates, arguing money isn't actually tight despite higher interest rates.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia 0:00 Welcome and introduction - Dr. Marc Faber returns to the show1:18 Big picture global economy - Asia bottomed out, mature economies turning down7:59 Asset price inflation and monetary policy - where money flows first13:37 Monetary Metals ad read15:23 The illusion of wealth - from millionaires to billionaires18:46 Housing affordability at lowest level ever in America23:21 US debt and deficit - "it will end badly" but when?24:50 How it ends badly - World War III is a possibility28:48 Ultra bearish on US dollar and all paper currencies32:12 Precious metals thesis - as long as liquidity remains plenty36:28 Cryptocurrencies - "will go up until it won't"38:26 Fed policy - agrees with Powell not to cut rates41:35 Real estate outlook - residential property "very vulnerable asset"45:11 Biggest risk and opportunity - everything will go down eventuallyLinks:The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com

Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, analyzes shocking jobs revisions showing only 35,000 jobs added over three months and questions whether this signals real weakness or statistical noise. Using her team's "12 million prices project," she reveals tariff pass-through is already happening with audio equipment up 11%, while services inflation may rebound as consumer sentiment improves. Drawing on White House experience during the 2019 trade war, Wong argues tariff uncertainty damages the economy more than tariffs themselves. She warns we may already be in recession and expects Fed rate cuts delayed until December.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Links:https://x.com/AnnaEconomist0:00 Welcome and introduction - Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics1:05 Big picture economy - last Friday's payroll flipped everything upside down2:58 Forward looking indicators suggest investment picking up in second half4:06 Massive jobs revisions - 35,000 three-month hiring trend6:20 Are the revisions a fluke or signal of real weakness?9:53 Three sectors driving downward revisions - construction, leisure, logistics11:26 Non-farm payrolls as most market-moving economic indicator14:05 Why employment data is so error-prone - birth-death model problems16:48 Monetary Metals ad read18:00 How Friday's report impacts Fed September meeting prospects20:00 Fed forecasting - 80% effort on inflation and jobs data21:18 12 million prices project tracking tariff pass-through25:00 Services inflation vs tariff impact - the real story30:00 Top 20% income earners driving swing consumption32:32 Fed outlook - rate cuts likely delayed until December34:34 White House experience in 2019-2020 - lessons on tariffs and travel bans40:00 Markets driven by TACO and FOMO - set for huge volatility41:02 What keeps Anna up at night - are we already in recession?43:23 Optimism on tariff narrative shifting and uncertainty resolution45:00 AI concerns - people in their 20s dropping from labor force

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio on Fed day to analyze the historic FOMC meeting featuring the first double dissent since 1993, arguing it could have been a triple dissent based on softened statement language. She criticizes Powell's dismissive handling of the dissenters and Trump's public attacks on the Fed chair, warning of an "Armageddon scenario" if Trump continues his pressure campaign. DiMartino Booth presents data showing the US entered recession in Q2 2024, with job losses, rising underemployment, and deflation in key sectors like hotels and airlines. She argues Powell could secure his legacy by admitting he's wrong about the job market being "solid" when data shows jobs are increasingly hard to get.Sponsors:  Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia  Links:    Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA  Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/07352116550:00 Welcome and introduction - FOMC day reaction1:05 Historic double dissent - first since 19933:04 History of Fed dissents - why they disappeared after 19966:48 Powell's dismissive handling of dissenters8:26 Why dissents should be healthy for Fed decision-making9:23 Trump's embarrassing public beratement of Powell10:52 The Armageddon scenario - what happens if Trump pushes too hard13:13 Will Powell stay? Hell would freeze over before he leaves15:00 Powell's path to securing his Fed legacy16:40 Jobs hard to get rises to highest of cycle - 18.9%17:26 US economy entered recession in Q2 202419:13 Deflation signals - hotel revenues and airline travel down20:25 Core PCE market-based pricing is negative 0.3%21:23 Gig economy collapse - Uber drivers earning 60% less22:41 Biggest risk - Fed's tone deafness to job market reality

Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 276 where he provides an assessment of America's financial predicament, arguing that 30 years of Federal Reserve easy money policies have created damage to the economy and society. He explains how the Treasury is attempting to manage the $36 trillion debt crisis by rolling financing to the short end of the curve while allowing banks to increase leverage ratios, creating demand for government bonds. Fleckenstein believes market analysis no longer applies due to the dominance of passive flows, making shorting ineffective and valuations meaningless. He's holding more cash than ever in his investment career and warns that we're past the point of no return financially. Beyond economics, he's concerned about wealth bifurcation driving younger generations toward financial gambling or socialism, eroding American society's fabric.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaLinks: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/0:00 Welcome and introduction - Bill returns to the show0:56 Big picture macro view - uncertainty and Trump volatility4:55 Bond market games - rolling debt to short end of curve7:39 Investment strategy - holding more cash than ever10:22 Why shorting doesn't work anymore - the passive bid problem11:46 Passive flows and employment concerns for young graduates14:25 Understanding the passive bid - why it matters for all ages18:37 Fed critique - 30 years of destructive easy money policies22:49 Mission creep and arrogance at the Federal Reserve25:57 Bond market story - financing games and bank leverage29:04 Is this the right policy approach? No good options left34:24 Are we in a Fed-induced bubble? The "everything bubble"36:45 Can the Fed control inflation? Lessons from the gold standard40:24 Could we return to sound money? Past the point of no return44:20 The math doesn't work - why we're too late47:01 What keeps Bill up at night - societal breakdown and wealth bifurcation50:09 Optimism in human ingenuity despite challenges51:10 Quick take on gold - the one financial antidote

Nick Maggiulli, COO at Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of "The Wealth Ladder," presents his data-driven framework for understanding wealth progression. He explains his six-level wealth ladder system (from under $10K to over $100M) and introduces the 0.01% spending rule for lifestyle decisions. Maggiulli emphasizes focusing on controllable factors rather than macro predictions, shares his personal journey from working-class background to level four wealth through consistent content creation, and discusses why different strategies are needed at each wealth level. He advocates for the "just keep buying" approach for level three investors while acknowledging that business ownership becomes necessary to reach level five.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaLinks:The Wealth Ladder: https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-Ladder-Proven-Strategies-Financial/dp/0593854039/X: https://x.com/dollarsanddataOf Dollars and Data: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Nick's return to the show1:19 Big picture outlook - focusing on individual control vs macro3:14 Death of the Amex lounge - rise of the upper middle class7:21 The wealth ladder framework - six levels explained10:06 Spending framework - the 0.01% rule13:03 Income vs wealth-based spending decisions17:11 Nick's personal journey through the wealth levels19:37 Building through content creation and consistency23:22 Stanford experience and class differences26:07 Progressing from level three to four - just keep buying28:41 The book as guide and warning - when is enough enough?30:20 Money and happiness - the logarithmic relationship32:44 Just keep buying framework at all-time highs36:45 Why Nick owns Bitcoin - the 5% allocation40:39 Final thoughts - importance of income across wealth levels

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock, warns that markets are approaching a historic "blow-off top" with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 6,700-6,900 before a devastating crash. Using his business cycle model, he argues we've already hit the "Titanic moment" - where leading indicators have collapsed while markets surge to bubble extremes. Zeberg predicts this "Everything Bubble" will lead to a deflationary crash potentially worse than 2008, followed by a stagflationary period in 2026-2028. He criticizes the Federal Reserve for massive policy errors, focusing on backward-looking inflation data while ignoring consumer distress and housing market deterioration. Despite being long Bitcoin (targeting $150K-$180K), he warns it could crash 80% and sees parallels to subprime risks in corporate treasuries loaded with crypto.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaLinks: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/p/final-warning-the-emperors-new-clothes0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg0:43 Macro framework and business cycle model3:29 Titanic moment explained6:09 Blow-off top targets (S&P 6,700-6,900)8:06 Trading vs investing in this environment9:30 Market signposts to watch11:21 Post blow-off top scenario14:30 How sharp will the decline be?18:00 Prediction markets showing 20% recession odds18:54 Liquidity vs solvency problem23:03 Federal Reserve policy errors26:21 Fed credibility problems29:11 What to ask Powell at FOMC31:09 Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?33:08 Bitcoin analysis and bubble concerns37:30 Bitcoin as subprime risk40:01 Gold outlook and inflation narrative42:45 The "Everything Bubble" thesis48:13 How to protect yourself51:16 Final thoughts and where to find Henrik