Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show his monthly appearance. In this episode, Whalen reports taking a risk-off position after 30% gains this year, noting Wall Street hedge funds are similarly going net short amid concerns about Treasury market stability. He warns that upcoming Supreme Court tariff decisions could force costly refunds while the Treasury faces mounting deficits from recent legislation. Whalen criticizes the Fed's "reckless" quantitative easing policies and predicts the dollar will lose reserve currency status as countries seek alternatives, leading to inevitable inflation as the US monetizes its debt. He sees parallels to 1924 Florida real estate speculation but expects a coming housing reset that could take prices back to 2020-21 levels, creating opportunities for patient buyers.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen returns for monthly appearance0:56 Big picture outlook - Trump administration personalities not getting along2:47 Risk off positioning - took 30% gains, markets losing steam5:11 Wall Street going risk off - hedge funds net short after taking gains8:15 Fed meeting outlook - rate cut uncertain despite expectations10:53 Supreme Court tariff decision - could force Treasury refunds12:57 Treasury Secretary's Fed criticism - "reckless gain of function experiments"15:48 Treasury market crisis risk - biggest worry for Chris18:03 Fed rate cut impact - quarter point fine, half point signals recession19:45 Pretend and extend - massive forbearance in commercial real estate20:04 Consumer health - okay for now but housing reset coming23:08 Gold's changing nature - now buying on dollar/inflation concerns24:25 Dollar losing reserve status - will be one of many currencies26:22 Reserve currency burden - domestic inflationary component27:39 Real estate speculation - like 1924 Florida land boom28:53 Coming housing blow-off - prices back to 2020-21 levels
Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 285 to discuss the economy and markets.Sponsored by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ted warns that markets are extremely expensive at 23x future earnings while the economy is flatlining. He expects coming Fed rate cuts to be an Arthur Burns-style policy mistake, creating a window to sell long bonds before higher structural inflation takes hold over the next 5-10 years. Oakley advocates significant cash positions (his firm holds 50% short-term treasuries) and exposure to commodities, energy, and gold as hedges against dollar decline and inflation. He sees concerning parallels to late 1990s day-trading mania among retail investors and emphasizes risk management over aggressive growth, particularly for older investors who need to preserve wealth rather than chase returns.With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro0:51 Big picture outlook - market extremely expensive 2:10 Disconnect between economy and markets - flatlining economy vs rising stocks3:20 48 years in markets - emotions never change at highs and lows4:43 Fed rate cuts coming - Arthur Burns mistake repeating6:24 Sell long bonds opportunity - inflation higher for next 5-10 years9:08 Most people don't know what's in their portfolios10:27 Rate cuts won't significantly impact 30-year rates12:02 Can Fed solve inflation? Only through Volcker-style aggressive tightening13:28 Jobs report 14:20 Recession outlook - wouldn't hurt to clean up system leverage15:52 Retail investor activity - zero commissions created day trading18:22 Warning signs from individual investors - last in, last out19:49 Liquidity allocation by age - different strategies for different ages22:49 Risk management key - never lose a lot of money26:59 Finding opportunities - screening 300 good companies29:45 Current allocation - 50% short-term treasuries across strategies31:48 Gold and bonds relationship - hard assets hedge against dollar decline33:48 Commodities outlook - 25-year lows present opportunity36:15 Biggest surprise this year - tariff costs not fully passed to consumers37:54 Biggest risk - America not as strong militarily as we think39:11 Optimism in American resilience and young people's potential
Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for episode 284 where she delivers a stark assessment of the housing market. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 Welcome and introduction - Melody Wright returns to the show1:26 Big picture housing outlook - abysmal spring and summer selling seasons3:42 New vs existing home price inversion - builders offering major incentives5:02 First-time home buyers at record lows since 1980s tracking7:17 Investment-driven housing market - not about homeownership anymore9:33 Owner occupancy fraud - FHA program abuse by investors12:06 Mortgage fraud prevalence - 30% chance when investors involved13:46 Julia's first-time homebuyer dilemma - waiting for prices to correct15:04 Demographics and housing supply - 15.6 million boomers leaving by 203517:52 North Carolina housing market turning - hope for buyers19:15 The "Zest effect" - emotional attachment to home value estimates20:20 Housing bubble worse than 2008 - fueled by speculation22:13 Insurance crisis - 50% increases tipping people into delinquency23:05 October 1st FHA changes - loan modification program ending23:25 Spring/summer seasons characterized as "abysmal"24:20 Tracking 2008 patterns - seasonal price peak already passed26:28 Fed rate cuts unlikely to impact housing significantly28:13 Where to find Melody's work and parting thoughts
Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, explains how markets have transitioned from a deflationary mindset to a debasement era over the past five years, driven primarily by massive fiscal spending rather than Fed policy. He argues that anger directed at the Fed should be redirected toward fiscal authorities who created unprecedented pro-cyclical deficits. Pies is benchmark long equities and bullish on hard assets like gold, having hit his $3,500 gold target this year. He believes Fed rate cuts will be inconsequential since fiscal dominance has already changed the paradigm, and core CPI won't fall below 3% due to tariff-driven goods inflation replacing the pre-pandemic goods deflation that helped achieve the 2% target. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/https://x.com/WarrenPiesTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction 1:18 Big picture framework 5:03 Behavioral changes in debasement era8:00 Fiscal dominance10:49 Jackson Hole speech 12:18 Labor market loosening 16:06 Immigration impact 17:31 Inflation stickiness 21:44 Widening perception gap in macro 26:23 Housing market outlook 30:07 Equity positioning 32:35 Bond allocation35:36 Gold outlook 37:06 Bitcoin allocation38:28 AI optimism 42:45 Closing remarks
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 282 to react to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Bianco argues Powell "caved" on rate cuts despite inappropriate conditions, with core inflation above 3% and markets at all-time highs. He explains that the pandemic permanently changed the economy, while Trump's immigration crackdown created net negative population growth for the first time in 50 years, making current job creation numbers of 35,000 monthly actually appropriate rather than concerning. Bianco warns that cutting rates with high inflation risks repeating last year's policy mistake when long-term rates rose anyway, and predicts tariffs will continue weekly rather than being one-time events. Despite concerns, he's optimistic about AI creating net positive job growth and transforming the economy.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.com x.com/biancoresearch 0:00 Welcome and introduction0:38 Big picture reaction - Powell caved and will cut rates in September1:50 Why rate cuts aren't the right move - interest rates appropriately valued3:45 Inflation destroys economies - 35-40% of workers not getting 3% raises6:15 Path to 2% inflation - pandemic changed everything permanently8:59 Immigration's hidden impact - biggest driver of population growth10:26 Border shutdown changes everything - net negative immigration for first time11:53 Job creation numbers make sense - 35,000 jobs fine with no population growth12:50 Labor force participation - only way to boost jobs is wage inflation15:11 Long bond implications - tremendous flow into fixed income16:45 Risk profile investing - boomers should focus on fixed income17:48 Retail investor dominance - buying every dip since Liberation Day20:41 Will Powell cut? - 90% probability but market wants limited cuts22:00 Supply vs demand problem - for hire signs but no applicants24:03 Biggest risk - tariffs will continue weekly, not one-time event26:29 AI optimism - will eliminate 50 million jobs but create 70 million better ones
Peter Grandich, veteran of 40+ years on Wall Street, delivers his most dire warning yet, saying he's more concerned than during the 1987 crash, dot-com bubble, or 2008 financial crisis due to deteriorating political, social, and economic conditions. He describes a dangerous "K-economy" where the top 10% own 86% of assets while the bottom 50% use credit cards for basic necessities, creating fertile ground for socialist candidates. Grandich warns markets are in a final melt-up phase driven by passive investing and computer trading, with no political cohesion to address the next crisis. He favors gold and international stocks over US equities, predicts Trump's trade war will accelerate de-dollarization, and expects Fed rate cuts won't help if long-term rates stay elevated due to massive deficit spending.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro1:12 Big picture outlook - fourth time in 42-year career being this concerned3:04 K-economy explained - top 10% own 86% of assets, bottom 50% struggling6:53 Market structure changed - passive investing and computer trading dominate11:46 Trade war concerns - big stick vs olive branch approach12:58 Fed rate cuts coming but long-term rates may stay higher17:58 Significance of rate dynamics - mortgages tied to long-term rates21:26 1987 crash call - how he got the "Wiz Kid" nickname22:45 More concerned than ever - political, social, economic factors all worse26:12 Socialist candidates emerging - wealth inequality driving politics28:26 CPI manipulation - removing long-term care costs from index32:36 Investment allocation - favoring gold and international stocks34:28 Gold thesis - not early anymore but still has upside35:27 Critical minerals shortage - AI needs metals we don't have38:07 Faith-based perspective - Catholic faith guides decisions41:33 Trade war will backfire - accelerating de-dollarizationLinks: https://x.com/PeterGrandichhttps://petergrandich.com/https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September despite market expectations, with only a one-in-three chance due to FOMC dynamics and persistent inflation. He expects radical Fed reforms under Trump's nominee Steve Miran, including potentially moving the Fed out of Washington to restore independence. Whalen is bullish on gold as the world returns to sound money, sees housing prices weakening with a major reset possible in 2028, and highlights SoFi as outperforming Bitcoin threefold. He warns the biggest market risk comes from crypto platform implosions while remaining optimistic about Trump's policies despite concerns about subject matter expertise in new appointments.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen 1:42 Big picture outlook - Fed rate cuts unlikely despite expectations3:22 FOMC dynamics - need majority for rate cuts, only one in three chance for September5:09 Fed changes ahead - Steve Miran and radical reforms coming7:17 Fed independence and getting out of Washington politics8:39 Fiscal reality - Fed is the tail, Treasury is the dog9:57 Gold thesis - back to sound money as world's reserve asset11:40 Gold allocation - still early innings, most portfolios under 5%14:13 Jobs data skepticism - government shouldn't be gathering this data16:13 CPI and inflation - too much liquidity still in the system18:10 Markets still have room to run - buying opportunities ahead20:18 NYC mayoral race - Cuomo path to victory over Mamdani22:34 Wealth divide creating socialist candidates - inflation driving pain24:05 Fed in a corner - can't squeeze economy like Volcker did26:19 GSE outlook - Fannie/Freddie IPO coming in Q431:31 Housing market - prices weakening but reset coming in 202834:19 Investment opportunities - SoFi outperforming Bitcoin by 3x36:15 Biggest risks - crypto platforms about to implode
Dr. Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, provides his characteristically pessimistic outlook, arguing that while Asian economies have bottomed out, mature Western economies are turning down amid unsustainable asset price inflation. He believes the 40-year asset bubble since 1980-81 is ending and "everything will go down eventually," making preservation of capital more important than growth. Faber is ultra-bearish on all paper currencies, expects residential real estate to decline significantly, and warns the US debt situation "will end badly" - possibly through World War III. Despite being in the financial sector that benefits from money printing, he surprisingly agrees with Powell's reluctance to cut rates, arguing money isn't actually tight despite higher interest rates.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia 0:00 Welcome and introduction - Dr. Marc Faber returns to the show1:18 Big picture global economy - Asia bottomed out, mature economies turning down7:59 Asset price inflation and monetary policy - where money flows first13:37 Monetary Metals ad read15:23 The illusion of wealth - from millionaires to billionaires18:46 Housing affordability at lowest level ever in America23:21 US debt and deficit - "it will end badly" but when?24:50 How it ends badly - World War III is a possibility28:48 Ultra bearish on US dollar and all paper currencies32:12 Precious metals thesis - as long as liquidity remains plenty36:28 Cryptocurrencies - "will go up until it won't"38:26 Fed policy - agrees with Powell not to cut rates41:35 Real estate outlook - residential property "very vulnerable asset"45:11 Biggest risk and opportunity - everything will go down eventuallyLinks:The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com
Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, analyzes shocking jobs revisions showing only 35,000 jobs added over three months and questions whether this signals real weakness or statistical noise. Using her team's "12 million prices project," she reveals tariff pass-through is already happening with audio equipment up 11%, while services inflation may rebound as consumer sentiment improves. Drawing on White House experience during the 2019 trade war, Wong argues tariff uncertainty damages the economy more than tariffs themselves. She warns we may already be in recession and expects Fed rate cuts delayed until December.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:https://x.com/AnnaEconomist0:00 Welcome and introduction - Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics1:05 Big picture economy - last Friday's payroll flipped everything upside down2:58 Forward looking indicators suggest investment picking up in second half4:06 Massive jobs revisions - 35,000 three-month hiring trend6:20 Are the revisions a fluke or signal of real weakness?9:53 Three sectors driving downward revisions - construction, leisure, logistics11:26 Non-farm payrolls as most market-moving economic indicator14:05 Why employment data is so error-prone - birth-death model problems16:48 Monetary Metals ad read18:00 How Friday's report impacts Fed September meeting prospects20:00 Fed forecasting - 80% effort on inflation and jobs data21:18 12 million prices project tracking tariff pass-through25:00 Services inflation vs tariff impact - the real story30:00 Top 20% income earners driving swing consumption32:32 Fed outlook - rate cuts likely delayed until December34:34 White House experience in 2019-2020 - lessons on tariffs and travel bans40:00 Markets driven by TACO and FOMO - set for huge volatility41:02 What keeps Anna up at night - are we already in recession?43:23 Optimism on tariff narrative shifting and uncertainty resolution45:00 AI concerns - people in their 20s dropping from labor force
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio on Fed day to analyze the historic FOMC meeting featuring the first double dissent since 1993, arguing it could have been a triple dissent based on softened statement language. She criticizes Powell's dismissive handling of the dissenters and Trump's public attacks on the Fed chair, warning of an "Armageddon scenario" if Trump continues his pressure campaign. DiMartino Booth presents data showing the US entered recession in Q2 2024, with job losses, rising underemployment, and deflation in key sectors like hotels and airlines. She argues Powell could secure his legacy by admitting he's wrong about the job market being "solid" when data shows jobs are increasingly hard to get.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/07352116550:00 Welcome and introduction - FOMC day reaction1:05 Historic double dissent - first since 19933:04 History of Fed dissents - why they disappeared after 19966:48 Powell's dismissive handling of dissenters8:26 Why dissents should be healthy for Fed decision-making9:23 Trump's embarrassing public beratement of Powell10:52 The Armageddon scenario - what happens if Trump pushes too hard13:13 Will Powell stay? Hell would freeze over before he leaves15:00 Powell's path to securing his Fed legacy16:40 Jobs hard to get rises to highest of cycle - 18.9%17:26 US economy entered recession in Q2 202419:13 Deflation signals - hotel revenues and airline travel down20:25 Core PCE market-based pricing is negative 0.3%21:23 Gig economy collapse - Uber drivers earning 60% less22:41 Biggest risk - Fed's tone deafness to job market reality
Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 276 where he provides an assessment of America's financial predicament, arguing that 30 years of Federal Reserve easy money policies have created damage to the economy and society. He explains how the Treasury is attempting to manage the $36 trillion debt crisis by rolling financing to the short end of the curve while allowing banks to increase leverage ratios, creating demand for government bonds. Fleckenstein believes market analysis no longer applies due to the dominance of passive flows, making shorting ineffective and valuations meaningless. He's holding more cash than ever in his investment career and warns that we're past the point of no return financially. Beyond economics, he's concerned about wealth bifurcation driving younger generations toward financial gambling or socialism, eroding American society's fabric.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaLinks: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/0:00 Welcome and introduction - Bill returns to the show0:56 Big picture macro view - uncertainty and Trump volatility4:55 Bond market games - rolling debt to short end of curve7:39 Investment strategy - holding more cash than ever10:22 Why shorting doesn't work anymore - the passive bid problem11:46 Passive flows and employment concerns for young graduates14:25 Understanding the passive bid - why it matters for all ages18:37 Fed critique - 30 years of destructive easy money policies22:49 Mission creep and arrogance at the Federal Reserve25:57 Bond market story - financing games and bank leverage29:04 Is this the right policy approach? No good options left34:24 Are we in a Fed-induced bubble? The "everything bubble"36:45 Can the Fed control inflation? Lessons from the gold standard40:24 Could we return to sound money? Past the point of no return44:20 The math doesn't work - why we're too late47:01 What keeps Bill up at night - societal breakdown and wealth bifurcation50:09 Optimism in human ingenuity despite challenges51:10 Quick take on gold - the one financial antidote
Nick Maggiulli, COO at Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of "The Wealth Ladder," presents his data-driven framework for understanding wealth progression. He explains his six-level wealth ladder system (from under $10K to over $100M) and introduces the 0.01% spending rule for lifestyle decisions. Maggiulli emphasizes focusing on controllable factors rather than macro predictions, shares his personal journey from working-class background to level four wealth through consistent content creation, and discusses why different strategies are needed at each wealth level. He advocates for the "just keep buying" approach for level three investors while acknowledging that business ownership becomes necessary to reach level five.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaLinks:The Wealth Ladder: https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-Ladder-Proven-Strategies-Financial/dp/0593854039/X: https://x.com/dollarsanddataOf Dollars and Data: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Nick's return to the show1:19 Big picture outlook - focusing on individual control vs macro3:14 Death of the Amex lounge - rise of the upper middle class7:21 The wealth ladder framework - six levels explained10:06 Spending framework - the 0.01% rule13:03 Income vs wealth-based spending decisions17:11 Nick's personal journey through the wealth levels19:37 Building through content creation and consistency23:22 Stanford experience and class differences26:07 Progressing from level three to four - just keep buying28:41 The book as guide and warning - when is enough enough?30:20 Money and happiness - the logarithmic relationship32:44 Just keep buying framework at all-time highs36:45 Why Nick owns Bitcoin - the 5% allocation40:39 Final thoughts - importance of income across wealth levels
Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock, warns that markets are approaching a historic "blow-off top" with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 6,700-6,900 before a devastating crash. Using his business cycle model, he argues we've already hit the "Titanic moment" - where leading indicators have collapsed while markets surge to bubble extremes. Zeberg predicts this "Everything Bubble" will lead to a deflationary crash potentially worse than 2008, followed by a stagflationary period in 2026-2028. He criticizes the Federal Reserve for massive policy errors, focusing on backward-looking inflation data while ignoring consumer distress and housing market deterioration. Despite being long Bitcoin (targeting $150K-$180K), he warns it could crash 80% and sees parallels to subprime risks in corporate treasuries loaded with crypto.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaLinks: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/p/final-warning-the-emperors-new-clothes0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg0:43 Macro framework and business cycle model3:29 Titanic moment explained6:09 Blow-off top targets (S&P 6,700-6,900)8:06 Trading vs investing in this environment9:30 Market signposts to watch11:21 Post blow-off top scenario14:30 How sharp will the decline be?18:00 Prediction markets showing 20% recession odds18:54 Liquidity vs solvency problem23:03 Federal Reserve policy errors26:21 Fed credibility problems29:11 What to ask Powell at FOMC31:09 Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?33:08 Bitcoin analysis and bubble concerns37:30 Bitcoin as subprime risk40:01 Gold outlook and inflation narrative42:45 The "Everything Bubble" thesis48:13 How to protect yourself51:16 Final thoughts and where to find Henrik
New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 273 to discuss the markets and the economy.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaLinks: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/00:00 Introduction: Larry McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report00:47 Getting long high beta names in April, now lightening positions02:18 Add high beta into fear/panic, lighten into complacency 04:11 Warning about "Liz Truss moment" for America - bond panic scenario 06:38 Debt ceiling suspension creates $1.7 trillion bond issuance catch-up 08:04 Bessent's "bag of tricks" to fight bond vigilantes 09:33 Dollar counter-trend rally from front-end Treasury issuance 11:41 Mechanics of dollar rally: need dollars to buy Treasuries 13:53 Emerging market bonds outperforming long-term Treasuries 16:14 Question whether "bag of tricks" arrives on time to help bonds 17:05 Financial repression explanation: suppress rates below inflation18:40 Bond vigilantes back despite Bessent's interventions 19:35 Commodities renaissance: copper names up 200-300% over 5 years21:51 New portfolio construction: gold, copper, uranium, lithium miners24:08 Risk: banks exposed to $5 trillion in commercial real estate debt25:09 Jamie Dimon and Buffett selling banks at "alarming pace" 26:31 Optimistic on lithium trade and Chile election outcome 26:55 Expecting 100 basis points in rate cuts due to debt burden 28:12 Coal names oversold, offshore drilling opportunities30:00 Closing remarks
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is "clearly late" in addressing a commercial real estate nightmare while consumer credit remains quiet, creating a "silent recession" ignored by markets. He warns the "Big Beautiful Bill" will drive inflation higher despite Trump's demands for rate cuts, with Treasury Secretary Bessent's shift to T-bill issuance representing a "last resort before default." Whalen predicts NYC mayoral candidate Mamdani will win and destroy real estate values with rent freezes, while inflation radicalizes politics nationwide. He advocates for gold as central banks abandon dollars, positioning in short-term treasuries and bank preferreds, and warns America needs an Argentina-style "Milei moment" crisis to force real change.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:00:00 Introduction: Chris Whalen00:59 Fed is "clearly late" - commercial side is a nightmare02:31 Fed late but no rate cuts coming soon due to fiscal deficits 04:28 Big beautiful bill will cause higher inflation and long rates 06:48 Silent recession in commercial real estate and private credit 09:18 NYC mayoral race: Mamdani 70% chance, will freeze rents 11:40 Wealthy exodus from NYC unlikely - condos vs. rentals 13:00 Inflation radicalizing Democratic Party politics 14:23 America needs Argentina "Milei moment" when crisis hits 16:13 Bessent switching to T-bills - last resort before default 19:17 Trump mismanaging relationship with Powell 20:45 Bank sector: deflation in lending, lack of credit demand 22:35 Private equity "train wreck" ignored by Fed stress tests 24:10 Dollar decline signals gold returning as reserve asset 25:30 Physical gold vs. ETFs discussion 27:12 Portfolio positioning: gold, bank preferreds, short-term treasuries29:51 Housing volumes down 20-25%, lock-in effect persists 32:02 Southern overbuilding compressing million-dollar homes 35:20 Warning about market reaction to big beautiful bill
Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss her outlook on a bifurcated economy where 52% of households are entering their second recession since COVID stimulus ended, while high-end consumers continue driving economic growth. Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://meredithwhitneyllc.com/Timestamps:0:00 Intro 0:54 Macro outlook and consumer segmentation 2:37 Recession expectations for Main Street 4:19 Market distortions and wealth effects 4:51 Dollar stores as economic indicator 6:17 Dollar store vs Walmart consumer dynamics 7:57 Trading down narrative discussion 8:26 Segmented recession clarification 8:54 Housing market outlook 9:23 Worst housing market in decades 11:12 Senior demographics and aging in place 12:32 First-time homebuyer challenges 14:25 Housing bubble discussion 15:29 Avocado toast generation (24-38 age group) 17:09 Experiential spending and lifestyle patterns 19:53 Nation's fiscal picture and debt concerns 22:44 Interest rates and Treasury market risks 24:31 Fed's impossible situation with stagflation 25:42 Rate cut predictions 27:04 Underappreciated risks and Treasury concerns 28:30 Home equity as "get out of jail free card" 30:15 Where to find Meredith's work and closing thoughts
David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes recession odds are higher than 2022 despite nobody expecting one, pointing to Fed staff forecasting 50% recession probability and the most downbeat Beige Book since 1980. Rosenberg criticizes Powell for calling the economy "solid" while real GDP has been negative sequentially in 2 of the past 3 months and survey data suggests 1% contraction. He highlights a major market dichotomy with stocks up 24% while the dollar is in an 11% bear market, suggesting something is fundamentally wrong. The housing market faces a negative wealth effect as supply-demand gaps widen and prices start cracking.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://rosenbergresearch.com/https://x.com/EconguyRosieTimestamps: 00:01 - Introduction: Dave Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research 00:49 - "Meat grinder roller coaster ride" - elevated policy uncertainty02:15 - Tail risks removed: no trade war, regional conflict, or fiscal cliff05:35 - S&P 500 multiple expansion: 18 to 22 in three months (4 sigma event) 08:30 - Housing market in "huge state of disarray" - prices starting to crack11:22 - Survey data consistent with economy contracting at 1% annual rate13:20 - Real GDP negative sequentially in 2 of past 3 months 15:24 - Nobody talking about recession despite higher odds than 202218:18 - Recession probabilities are binary - "zero or 100, not 60% pregnant" 21:18 - Mistakes from 2022-2023: didn't anticipate fiscal stimulus scale25:34 - Big beautiful bill not stimulative - just extending status quo 28:20 - Housing supply-demand gap widening, negative wealth effect coming32:42 - S&P 500 became growth index, small caps still in correction 36:00 - Fed staff said recession odds equal to GDP baseline forecast (50%)38:56 - Beige book: economy declining slightly, more downbeat than 200744:32 - Powell calling economy "solid" despite weak data - credibility issue48:04 - Fed damaged by "transitory" mistake, protecting legacy 55:17 - Next Fed Chair speculation: wants someone he can "push around"59:04 - US dollar down 11% in bear market while stocks up 24% 01:04:13 - Closing: importance of liquidity and diversification
Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins the Julia La Roche Show for episode 269 for his latest macro update. Gromen argues the US government is in fiscal dominance, spending over 100% of tax receipts on entitlements and interest payments alone. He says Fed Chair Powell faces a binary choice between crushing the dollar through inflation or crushing the bond market through higher rates. Gromen notes that funding currency relationships between the yen and dollar have broken down, signaling both central banks are cornered. He advocates getting out of government bonds and into hard assets like gold and Bitcoin, predicting that retail investors holding long-term Treasuries will be the biggest losers. Gromen believes Trump officials are "begging" for rate cuts because they know the fiscal math doesn't work without negative real interest rates.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: website: https://fftt-llc.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen00:00 Introduction and welcome back Luke Gromen01:01 Funding currency relationships breaking down 07:58 Meta trade: exit government bonds, buy hard assets 12:27 Gold still early - central banks driving demand 14:47 Trump officials begging for rate cuts - Fed cornered 16:56 Stablecoin plan requires much higher Bitcoin 20:33 Dollar/bond correlations broken - foreigners selling Treasuries 27:11 Powell's binary choice: crush dollar or bonds 34:14 Fiscal dominance: interest expense >95% of receipts 37:08 DOGE failed - needed dollar devaluation first 39:25 Portfolio: overweight gold, Bitcoin45:18 Two scenarios: Powell cuts vs. doesn't cut rates 48:54 Retail investors stuck holding long-term bonds 52:04 Closing remarks
Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 268, warning of a coming "grand reconciliation" where credit, stock, and real estate bubbles will burst. He argues the US debt is unsustainable, with the next recession triggering $4-6 trillion annual deficits. Pento predicts Trump will replace Powell with an "obsequious sycophant" in May 2026 who will slash rates to zero, causing long-term rates to spike and creating a "debt death spiral." He recommends hard assets like gold and platinum, which he expects will "scream higher" in 2026, and emphasizes the critical importance of active management to navigate the coming crisis.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento0:00 Intro and welcome Michael01:01 - Macro picture06:16 - Grand reconciliation coming: debt, real estate, stocks 11:27 - Case for platinum and gold - platinum breakout 14:32 - Hard assets will "scream higher" in 2026 17:11 - Fed should be defunct - market should set rates 22:08 - Next recession: deficit jumps to $4-6 trillion 25:21 - US debt32:29 - 202634:38 - Next Fed chair will be "obsequious sycophant" 38:03 - Closing remarks
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, and George Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, join Julia La Roche in-studio on FOMC day, where they break down the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged, the state of the economy, and the interest rate outlook.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://www.mufgresearch.com/ George's Twitter/X: https://x.com/bondstrategist QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/073521165500:00 - Danielle: Fed "willfully blind" to economic reality 02:52 - Record 5.3% of Americans working multiple jobs 05:00 - Real unemployment is 4.5-4.6%, not reported 4.2% 08:07 - Debate: Is the Fed being political? 10:00 - George: "More than one economy" - rates hurting different groups 16:28 - Net worth declined via both stocks and real estate in Q1 21:57 - Interest expense is fastest growing budget item 26:06 - Next Fed Chair prediction: Waller, Warsh, Bessent front-runners 32:12 - Corporate bankruptcies highest since 2010 38:49 - Danielle: US entered recession Q1 2024, back in one now 40:26 - Top 10% of earners drive 49.7% of consumption 43:52 - What keeps them up at night: False sense of security