The Julia La Roche Show

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:    Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Intro0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative"10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back?25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E31:40 What's making her optimistic33:25 Wrap-up

Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. He warns that the market has "crossed over to the hard side of the street." With the Shiller CAPE above 42, he says history points to negative real returns for the next decade. Cracks are already showing in AI-related credit, where junk bonds and bank loans have widened sharply while the rest of high yield holds up. Gundlach says he now wants out of the AI "epicenter" entirely. He walks through his current portfolio: equal-weight equities, a barbell of high-quality bonds and local-currency emerging market debt, gold, commodities, and short-duration "dry powder." He expects CPI to print above 4% as oil tops $100 and diesel hits $8 a gallon, and he predicts a 25 basis point hike from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He also explains why 30-year TIPS won't protect investors from rising rates and why he's skeptical of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Operation Twist. He sees a dangerous web of private credit, arbitraged credit ratings, and offshore reinsurance, calling private credit the fuse and insurance companies the bomb. He urges annuity buyers to stick with mutual insurers and warns that bailout pressure will be intense when the AI and private markets reckoning arrives.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapitalWebsite: https://doubleline.com/Webcasts: https://doubleline.com/doubleline-webcasts/0:00 Intro1:16 Shiller CAPE, a decade of negative real returns? 3:33 The mood turns: AI credit starts to crack8:10 Gundlach Unlocked: his new portfolio with zero AI exposure12:12 Gold, plus commodities and dry powder17:25 Rising rates and the $40 trillion debt milestone17:55 Operation Twist and the endgame for the debt22:19 Oil above $100 and a near-empty Strategic Petroleum Reserve25:12 Why CPI is headed above 4% and Warsh's 2% promise28:54 The German Bund and GDP model for the 10-year31:54 When he'd buy long bonds35:27 Will Warsh hike? 38:31 Advice for Scott Bessent? 40:14 The Fed follows the 2-year41:20 Dollar debasement and the 30-year TIPS myth43:29 Why you can't trust credit ratings46:27 Private credit is the fuse, insurers are the bomb53:25 Peak optimism: this feels like 1999 and 20061:01:18 Final warning: the hard side of the street

The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a summer vacation with a blunt read on the fall ahead: affordability — fuel, housing, food — has already decided the midterms, and the Iran conflict plus the Russia-Ukraine war have created a shortage not just of crude but of refined products, with refinery maintenance season and the shift to heating oil set to push prices higher still. He calls $100 oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury the new normal, argues Scott Bessent's buyback strategy has failed, and expects a quarter-point hike next week while raising the more unsettling question: what happens if the Fed raises short rates and the long end goes up anyway? On gold, Whalen is still accumulating, sees $6,000–$7,000 only after a fiscal catalyst like a bad Treasury auction, and points to Shanghai's gold-linked clearing system and Russia's 100-ton sale to China as evidence of where physical demand really lives. He also answers viewer questions on the exodus at Fannie Mae, the flawed data behind credit scores, how to actually save in gold, why he owns only Flagstar and Schwab, and warns that Florida's home price correction is coming for the rest of the country next year.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Welcome back: summer's over, a lot to catch up on0:50 – Energy prices and the midterms: decided at the pump?1:13 – Affordability is the story: diesel, heating oil, Europe's supply crisis2:51 – The $5,000 "Trump dividend" and buying votes4:13 – What nobody in Washington will say about insolvency5:00 – FDICIA, continuing resolutions, and a Congress that can't say no6:34 – Oil near $100: does it get worse from here?7:33 – Rates "going back to normal" after 15 years of Fed subsidy9:24 – Calling 5% on the 10-year — and Bessent's failed buyback strategy10:29 – Warsh rules out QE, spreads tighten anyway11:57 – Why banks are suddenly buying multifamily12:58 – Is 5% a stop along the way or the destination?14:31 – What Chris expects from the Fed next week15:06 – The big question: what if the Fed has lost the long end?16:11 – What losing control of long rates would actually signal17:24 – Gold with David Kotok, and why it's not a trading vehicle18:28 – Tom McClellan on the oil–gold relationship (with a 16-month lag)20:09 – A quiet year: banks, AI trade, and boring winners21:17 – What takes gold from $4–5K to $6–7K22:00 – Russia sells 100 tons of gold to China22:53 – Is the dollar really in decline? CIPS, Shanghai, and sanctions24:12 – How high can diesel and Brent go this winter?25:30 – Iran, the Houthis, and the Red Sea26:59 – Viewer Q: What's happening inside Fannie Mae?28:30 – Pulte, VantageScore, and the bad-data problem in credit scoring29:39 – Viewer Q: How do you actually save in gold?30:45 – Florida home prices are falling — "Misery on the Eights"31:31 – Viewer Q: The big money center banks32:47 – Viewer Q: Book recommendations and the gold book33:23 – Closing thoughts: an age of instability

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to break down what he's hearing from the veteran investors in his network — and the shift he's watching in real time. Portfolio managers who spent two years as raging bulls have turned bearish on the financials and are quietly spending a slice of their gains on downside protection while volatility is cheap. McDonald walks through the mechanics of the data center financing boom: hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet debt from the hyperscalers, the banks now holding that exposure, and the credit default swaps those same banks are buying on the Mag 7. He explains why he sees a late-2006 rhyme in private credit and the CCC market, why diesel prices could re-spark inflation over the next few CPI prints, and why the most crowded trade on Wall Street right now may be the bearish one on bonds. Plus: the "supernova" dynamic that turns a hot economy into a fast recession, why he's still long hard assets, and the one risk he thinks almost nobody is talking about.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMKTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/0:00 — Intro1:18 — A million books sold, and what the ideas dinners reveal3:07 — Where the smart money is shifting right now4:39 — How investors are buying protection: CDS, puts, VIX ETFs5:35 — Late cycle: data center financing and the Mag 7's cash burn7:00 — Meta's $30B off-balance-sheet financing and what banks did next8:22 — Why banks are buying CDS on the companies they lend to9:42 — Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators: CCCs, LQD, private credit11:00 — "You're manufacturing Bernie Madoffs": no business cycle, no cleansing12:21 — Midterms, the Treasury, and the DSA risk to the long end17:00 — Why inflation isn't as tame as it looks — diesel is the tell18:56 — Scott Bessent vs. the "faculty lounge" Treasury21:44 — The Google bond at 88, the Apple bond at 4923:39 — Are there hidden SVBs out there?25:55 — The contrarian trade: buying duration when everyone's bearish27:42 — What the bond market is signaling29:40 — Why the bad news is 80-90% priced in31:49 — The supernova effect and how recessions actually start33:06 — Hedging equities: puts on the financials at record price-to-book34:30 — Biggest under-the-radar risk36:00 — What he's still long: energy, coal, copper, gold miners37:22 — Where to find the Bear Traps Report

In part two of the all-viewer-question edition of The Wrap, Chris Whalen and Julia tackle everything from gold confiscation to credit union safety. Chris argues that a 1933-style seizure is possible in a debt crisis, since heavy government borrowing effectively encumbers every asset in the country, and that offshore physical gold is the only real protection. He explains why rising gold prices pressure the Treasury and gradually erode the dollar's role as the world's medium of exchange, drawing parallels to the monetary fragmentation of post-Roman Europe that he's been researching for his upcoming book. Along the way he critiques Jerome Powell for extending QE long after credit spreads normalized in 2020, pushes back on fears of a boomer-driven market selloff, breaks down how Annaly Capital actually makes money, flags private-credit takeovers of insurance companies as a genuine risk to annuity holders, and shares his own portfolio split. He closes with thoughts on land value taxes, the likelihood of a US VAT, and life in Florida versus New York.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Cold open: "No democracy can have sound money"0:25 - Welcome back — viewer questions only1:31 - Could the government confiscate gold again like 1933?4:50 - Inside Chris's new book on gold6:37 - Gold price outlook: 2026, 2027, 20288:30 - Best ways to own metals without holding physical9:27 - Why we ran surpluses from 1998-200110:30 - What Jerome Powell should have done differently13:44 - Will retiring boomers crash the market?15:42 - Equal-weight S&P funds at current valuations16:04 - Nvidia financing its own customers: circular financing?18:06 - Annaly (NLY) explained: leverage, servicing, and lending20:51 - Common shares or preferred?21:41 - Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? Chris's actual allocation23:47 - Are credit unions safer than banks?25:22 - Annuity owners: how to protect yourself from insolvency27:07 - Land value taxes, wealth taxes, and the case for a VAT28:37 - Florida vs. New York: an honest review30:00 - Wrap-up and housekeeping