In this episode, Charles DeLaTorre joins us. We break down how #lumber users are adopting the JPT (Just Past Time) inventory method and what it means for the market. With everyone betting on higher prices next year, how should buyers, sellers, and risk managers play their hand? With everyone thinking one thing it will probably not play out the way we all have it scripted in out head. We also dive into why mills keep clinging to outdated pricing formulas when selling to the big-box giants. Why are there still a high amount of shorts in the market? The conversation gets lively, and whether you're at the office, in the car, or out for a run, you'll leave feeling smarter—and maybe even a step ahead of the game!
This week on The Lumber Word, we’re joined by Chris Beard from John Burns Research & Consulting! I’ve seen them at events, and they are the OG of research in this market! Chris dives into the stats that keep our market moving and gives us the John Burns perspective on housing starts, permits, and long-term trends. We ask the big questions: What’s the lag between interest rates and housing demand? How are we shaping up to end the year, and what does 2025 look like? If you're anywhere near the construction supply chain, you'll want to hear Chris's insights. Matt, Gregg and Ashley all want Chris back after this great POD. And don’t forget to check out what John Burns Consulting can do for your business at www.jbrec.com!
In this episode, Matt, Gregg, and Ashley dive into the post-curtailment lumber world, sharing their seasoned lumber trading insights as they try to make sense of this wild market. Are home centers in for a shock in 2025 with potential production shortfalls? Will there be a rush for premium grades? The team dissects overvalued and undervalued products, ponders why 4" lumber is dragging, and breaks down the latest on September lumber futures expiration. Stick around for the final fun segment—marry, date, dump—where lumber gets the matchmaking treatment. You’ll leave with plenty of laughs and solid trading tips!
In this jam-packed episode, we’re joined by a friend, and lumber industry expert Charles DeLaTorre to upgrade our SYP knowledge. It’s been a whirlwind week in lumber, and with Canfor's recent curtailments shaking up North American markets, we're diving deep into where we stand with supply and demand. Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Ashley had a lively debate on what the future holds for lumber prices in late 2024, with Gregg making some bold predictions for 2025. Matt also brings the WSPF and Pac NW lumber information and talks about Hem Fir and DDF filling into some lost WSPF regions. If you’re planning to buy or sell lumber soon, this episode is a must-listen. We also tackled the September CME Lumber Futures expiration and what might be on the horizon for November and January. Tune in for insights that’ll keep you ahead of the curve!
In Episode #90 of "The Lumber Word Podcast," Gregg, Matt, and Ashley dive deep into the current lumber market, debating whether we're at the peak or just getting started. The team discusses the velocity and strength of the truck market, as well as historically low inventory levels. Are mills sitting on a lot of dressed inventory, or are buyers overextending by purchasing extra trucks? With short orders popping up in the cash market, the crew explores whether these moves make sense. Tune in to hear their insights and what you should be doing over the next 4-6 weeks to stay ahead.
In this episode, we're excited to have Russ Taylor from Russ Taylor Global joining us! We kick things off by chatting about his upcoming event, the Global Wood Summit, happening this October 29-30. And guess what? The Lumber Word will be doing a live podcast right from the event! Go to www.globalwoodsummit.com for the details. Today, we dive into the latest market trends from the past 30-60 days. We explore why so many lumber buyers are still playing it safe as prices climb higher. How much North American production has slowed down, and what can we expect going forward? We also break down the current cost of production and what the new Canadian lumber duty means for today and next year. Tune in to get the inside scoop and maybe even gain the edge you need in this shifting market!
In this episode, we welcome Joe Pepe from LMC to help us break down the current state of the lumber market. We dive into where we stand in the lumber cycle—is supply finally catching up with demand? Matt highlights the differences between the 2x4 market and 2x6 and wider, while we discuss key indicators to watch for in the upcoming housing starts report. We also explore how lean end users are keeping their inventories and share insights from our own business dealings. We ponder how far this lumber market can continue to rise and what surprises might be on the horizon. Plus, we touch on the growing trend of builders asking their suppliers for longer-price locks. This episode is packed with valuable insights and plenty of fun along the way!
In this week's episode of "The Lumber Word," we are joined by Charles DeLaTorre, owner of Industrial Forest Products. Get ready for a lively discussion as we challenge each other on why the lumber market moved over the past month. What did we see that others missed? And more importantly, will it continue? Charles dives into Southern Yellow Pine (SYP), providing insights that are sure to expand your understanding. We also tackle the topic of potential bad paper in the forward cash market and examine how mills have been rationalizing capacity without alerting the trading market. It's an episode packed with valuable insights and predictions about where the market is headed. Tune in for an entertaining and informative session!
In this episode of "The Lumber Word," Matt, Gregg, and Ashley dive into the recent lows in lumber pricing and discuss the recent strength of the past three weeks. With some commodity funds buying back short CME positions, the big question is whether this trend will continue or if they will shift gears again. Why is there so much negativity in the market, and what does it mean for the future? Our hosts give their honest predictions and provide a thorough analysis of the current market sentiment. Supply is still trying to match up with demand—has it finally done enough? Notably, some prices have already recovered up to $80 MBF off the bottom trade price. Could we see a rally of $100+ MBF, or might we fall back to the cost of production? Join us to hear the latest insights and predictions on the market's direction! Tune in to Episode #86 to stay ahead of the curve in the lumber industry!
In this week's episode of The Lumber Word, we’re joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist for First Trust. Brian shares his expert analysis of the housing market, discussing interest rates, housing supply, and what economic signals mean for the future of housing. He also weighs in on whether we’re in a recession and offers predictions for the prices of new and existing homes. Tune in for this insightful conversation and stay ahead in the housing sector! For more insights from Brian, visit First Trust and sign up for their free newsletter.
In this episode of "The Lumber Word," Matt, Gregg, and Ashley are all back together to dive deep into the current lumber market. Matt kicks it off with an engaging update about last week's mood at the Inland golf outing. Gregg follows up with a detailed breakdown of today's housing starts data, providing valuable insights for our listeners. The team then takes a comprehensive look at the market, analyzing supply and demand trends. Plus, did Ashley call a bottom in lumber? Tune in to find out! We wrap up the episode with a fun segment of marry, date, or dump, which we haven't done in a while.
In this episode, we're joined by Dustin Jalbert, Senior Economist at Wood Products Fastmarkets RISI, to unravel the current zeitgeist of the lumber market. Ever wonder what's going on with supply and demand? We've got you covered as we dive deep into consumption and production figures. We also share our projections for the housing market through the rest of 2024 and into 2025. Plus, we'll update you on the ongoing US/Canada cross-border lumber dispute. If you want to get a true feel for the pulse of the lumber world, this is the episode you can't miss!
In Episode #82 of "The Lumber Word," we welcome back Charles DeLaTorre to dive deep into the Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) market, along with all other traded species. With four consecutive down months, we explore whether we've hit the bottom or if there's more to come. The crew breaks down the market structure, examining who's long, who's short, and who's potentially thriving or struggling. To understand past market behaviors, we delve into the physical lumber market and analyze a fascinating chart of housing starts since the 1960s. As we wrap up, we offer hope and actionable ideas for navigating these turbulent times. Tune in to become smarter, more informed, and dapper. Don't miss this insightful episode!
In this episode of "The Lumber Word," the team is joined by a special guest, Earl Heath, head analyst from Madison's Lumber Reporter. Together, we dive deep into the lumber industry's looming challenges this year. Are prices ever going to rise? Are production costs as high as producers claim? What will be the tipping point for change? We explore these pressing questions and more, providing our listeners with insights into what we see and feel as we look ahead to 2024. Tune in for an engaging and informative discussion on the current state and future of the lumber market.
In this solo episode of "The Lumber Word," Ashley takes the reins while Gregg and Matt are away (they’ll be back next week!). Tune in as Ashley dives into the latest on the lumber market, housing starts, and market structure. Discover the crucial information Ashley relies on daily and weekly, including the Commitment of Traders reports, Volume, and Open Interest, which reveal a lot about the lumber market. Ashley shares insights from a recent conversation with a home-building expert about risk management, emphasizing the importance of education in the industry. Plus, get Ashley’s take on what you should be considering as the lumber saga unfolds. This episode is packed with insider secrets and tricks that most people won't share. Don't miss out!
Join us for an exciting episode as we welcome Robin Cross, a renowned lumber trader and broker, to the show. With years of experience in CME lumber futures, Rob has built a stellar reputation for his expertise and client relationships. We kick things off with a deep dive into the cash lumber market before unraveling the intense "Market Structure" standoff between Industry Longs and Fund Shorts. This could turn into a wild ride as both sides face crucial decisions about rolling. Stick around until the end for our predictions on where the market is headed in the next 30 days. Get ready for a thrilling discussion that will keep your lumber excitement levels high. Download and listen now!
In this week's episode of "The Lumber Word," we are thrilled to be joined by Matt Layman from www.laymansguide.com. We dive deep into the current state of the lumber cycle, exploring key insights and trends that are shaping the market. Our lively discussion covers Southern Yellow Pine (SYP), the stalling multi-family housing market, and the mindset of buyers and sellers. We delve into the supply-demand equilibrium and debate whether the market has hit bottom or if there’s more downside to come. Additionally, we share some classic lumber trading war stories, adding a touch of nostalgia and humor to the conversation. Tune in for an informative and entertaining episode that promises to make you smarter and better looking by the end!
In this abbreviated episode of "The Lumber Word," Ashley provides a succinct overview of the lumber market since last week. He discusses key observations and offers a brief prognostication on lumber price movements over the next 60 days. In the latter half of the episode, Ashley delves into the genesis of "The Lumber Word," unveiling new additions to the podcast format and future directions. The episode also highlights our stakeholders, detailing who the podcast serves and our growth plans.
Welcome to Episode #76 of "The Lumber Word"! Today, we're diving into the sluggish lumber market with our recurring guest, Casey O'Neil. We'll cover a range of topics, from OSB and lumber to everything in between. Join us as we explore why the industry still holds a lot of hope and discuss the reasons behind the CME's significant premium over cash prices. Whether you're a seasoned lumber trader or just curious about the lumber market, this episode is packed with insights you won't want to miss. Tune in now!
In this episode of "The Lumber Word," we delve into the dynamics surrounding the May lumber futures expiration. We analyze the Builders' Confidence Index, housing starts, lumber shipments, and the impact of European imports on the market. Our conversation is lively as we discuss strategies for navigating current lumber price levels, including whether to buy forward or adopt a buy-and-hold approach. Tune in for expert insights and practical tips on managing lumber investments amidst evolving market conditions.