The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst in London talks to Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst in Singapore, about the implications for Asian currencies from a second Trump Presidency. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Concerns about energy reliability, green premiums and political polarisation in recent months – that have been magnified by the outcomes of the US presidential elections – are raising questions about sustainable investing’s ability to deliver both positive impacts and strong returns on investments (RoI). In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into this pertinent theme. He believes that moves by investors towards long-term sustainable themes such as financial materiality, a broadened investable universe, and engagement over exclusions, have the potential to augment performance and keep sustainable investing on solid ground, independent of the political order of the day as well as certain narrowing in interpretations of fiduciary expectations.

Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory in the US election. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the implications for the USD from a second Trump presidency.   Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Donald Trump has won the White House and Republicans have won a larger-than-expected majority in the Senate. The outlook for the House is still unclear but leans toward a very narrow Republican majority and therefore a Republican sweep. This outcome is set to have significant reverberations on a plethora of ESG dimensions. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the ESG implications from president Trump’s second term in office. He believes that top of mind will be amendments to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – the largest piece of climate legislation in US history – with the focus on less of a full repeal (given the majority the surge of IRA investments and jobs created has predominantly flowed to Republican congressional districts), but rather targeted reductions on loan guarantee and grant programmes as well as consumer tax credits, such as electric vehicle purchases – particularly around foreign entity of concern (FEOC) requirements. A broader risk is the formal US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in early 2026 (akin to Trump 1.0), with a larger emphasis on fossil fuels, with decarbonisation efforts likely to become more nuanced and led by state policies as well as private sector initiatives.

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the potential growth, monetary policy, and FX implications on ASEAN from a Harris election victory and a Trump election victory. Lloyd also highlights which ASEAN economies and currencies would underperform in an adverse Trump scenario, where 60% US tariff is imposed on all Chinese imports while a 10% blanket tariff is imposed on US imports from all other countries.  Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Following the release of the US jobs report Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, discusses with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate FX Sales about the potential implications ahead of the FOMC next week. Derek also outlines the FX implications on a Harris election victory and a Trump election victory and highlights some polling analysis from NBC News. The discussion also covers the GBP impact following the UK budget this week. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The US presidential election will take place on 5 November and polls indicate a tight race. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the potential impacts on clean energy post US elections.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss why the JPY has weakened sharply this month. How are the political risks impacting JPY performance?  Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Every two years, global leaders gather to negotiate agreements to preserve biodiversity and stop the destruction of nature. This week, representatives of 196 countries are gathering in Cali, Colombia, for the 16th UN Conference of the Parties summit, commonly known as COP16, which runs from 21 October through to 1 November. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into the significance of the summit as well as contextualising what are the key watchpoints for corporates and investors.

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Japinder Singh, Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG India discuss key driving factors behind RBI monetary policy decision and INR in the context of US Elections and what that could mean for the Dollar and Fed policy.    (Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Research)

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss what has been driving the strong USD rebound this month and if the USD continue to strengthen ahead of the US election?  Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The former ECB President and Italian PM, Mario Draghi, recently presented a study he has conducted on behalf of the European Commission, on how to strengthen Europe's competitiveness and close the productivity gap with the US and China. Electrification appears at the core of the plan with half of the incremental investments suggested by the plan (~EUR450bn of EUR800bn per year) in clean energy and electric mobility. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves further into the Draghi Plan which at face value should bolster increasing power consumption, lower the cost of capital for renewable activities and spur significant capex in power grids and clean energy.

USD/JPY continues it's advance toward the 150-level and this week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales about the prospects for USD/JPY in the context of a 60bp jump in 2yr US yields, the upcoming election in both Japan and the US, and the argument that the buying momentum may start to fade at these levels. Derek also looks ahead to the ECB monetary policy meeting next week and possible implications for the euro.  Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

At the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference in December 2023, governments agreed to work together to triple the world’s installed renewable energy capacity by 2030. According to the latest IEA assessment, renewables are set to generate nearly half of global electricity by the end of the decade, but the current growth trajectory is not fully in line with the UN goal to triple capacity. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the IEA’s various scenarios and highlights two critical factors that are set to drive the global renewables expansion for the remainder of this decade.

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, provides an update to our latest house views on the Fed and US rates forecasts post the solid September NFP jobs report. Even though the team have doubts on the overall quality of the recent NFP reading and that one number does not make a trend. At face value it was a strong report and it will likely result in the Fed cutting at a slower pace. We are now expecting the Fed to deliver a 25bp cuts going forward and tweaked on our longer term rates forecasts. 

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst and Seiko, Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the USD has staged a strong rebound over the past week. Recent developments add to their caution in forecasting further USD downside ahead of the US election.  Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The conversations during Climate Week in New York, between 22-29 September, had a tone of realism that acknowledged the shortfall in political ambition to address climate change – both in government policies and finance. These deliberations are critical building blocks towards the next major destination for international sustainability discussions at COP29 in Azerbaijan. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the key takeaways of Climate Week in New York, which top of mind included the continued commitment to solving barriers to an effective sustainable market, concern over higher power demand attributed to the rise of AI and the increased costs of climate impacts.

Following the LDP leadership election in Japan today Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of Japanese Client FX Sales about what the implications for BoJ monetary policy and the yen after the victory for Shigeru Ishiba. Derek also looks ahead to next week’s US employment report and the Fed and FX implications. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Published on 9 September, the Draghi Report on “the future of European competitiveness” is a clarion call that addresses how the EU is trailing the US and China over the past two decades. To avoid what former ECB President, Mario Draghi, calls a “slow agony” the report calls for EUR750-800bn of investment per annum (~5% of GDP) to focus on three areas to reinvigorate growth – decarbonisation, digitalisation and defence. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the key dimensions of this pertinent report that sets the stage for the EU Commission’s upcoming “Clean Industrial Deal”, advocating game-changing reforms to enhance European competitiveness.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss the FX market implications from this week’s central bank policy updates. Will the USD continue to weaken after the Fed delivers a larger 50bps rate cut? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)