The Macro Trading Floor

Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further. Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates. FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86 Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-25oct24/

Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who prevails in US elections. Finally, they engage in a discussion about the importance of correlations for macro portfolios. Want to be in touch with Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg or enroll in the two-weeks free trial of his institutional research: https://forms.gle/5GfSwfzovsFpCA5q7 Want to be in touch with Brent? Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg or visit spectramarkets.com Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-18oct24/

Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework. Alf's Macro Research Trial (Free): https://forms.gle/6azecq2XhMW2ZFXa8 Brent's Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11oct24/

EXCLUSIVE DISCOUNT TO ALF & BRENT CONFERENCE https://www.spectramarkets.com/macro-roadmap-2025/ Use the coupon TMTF to get $200 OFF. Only for the first 100 users - first come, first serve! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Alf and Brent discuss the many risks on the horizon: the Middle-East escalation, China following up (or not) with real economic stimulus, elections and more. Today’s episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-04oct24/

The Chinese stimulus bazooka has been fired. Chinese authorities have announced aggressive interest rate cuts, a 1 trillion yuan capital injection for Chinese banks, and they  are also mentioning the magic words: fiscal stimulus. As a result, stocks are soaring and commodities are rallying. But - is it really going to work? And can China really afford such a stimulus? Alf and Brent unpack this in today's show. Elm's ''Crystal Ball'' Trading Game: https://elmwealth.com/crystal-ball-challenge/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27sep2024/

Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within. We are now also on Youtube, where you can see supporting charts and our bald heads. https://youtu.be/o1iDoADS0c4 Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20sep2024/

Alf and Brent discuss similarities and differences between the world and the macro cycle today versus the pre-pandemic period. While the cycle might look similar, should we not pay attention to the structural differences too? The duo moves on to discuss the aggressive bond market pricing and how to trade around that. Finally, they focus on the US Dollar: will it perform nicely or poorly if we get a recession? Free trial to Alf's institutional macro research: https://forms.gle/yNU1vBqCqRXSvEHA7 Sign up to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-13-september-2024/

Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus. Free trial to Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/6bXTD5ApyrdvSv798 Subscribe to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/ Commodities are the worst-performing asset class over the past 20 years: https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfsp_20yrsa_fly.pdf Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-6-september-2024/

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They then make a deep dive on the US Dollar, and finally cover a crucial trading framework topic: when and how to use options instead of linear structures to put up macro trades? FREE TRIAL to Alf's Institutional Macro Research: https://www.tinyurl.com/FreeTrialResearch Sign up to Brent's newsletter: www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe Brent's dedicated piece on options vs linear trades: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-23-august-2024/

Alf and Brent reflect on the immense volatility hitting markets recently, and specifically on the unwind of carry trades: are we done here or is there more to come? Most importantly, they describe how to design and apply a risk management and position sizing framework so that when everybody panics you don't need to. Want to reach out to Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg Brent Donnelly can also be reached on Bloomberg, or via spectramarkets.com Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-august-2024/

Alf and Brent reflect on the massive bond market rally and the explosive move in the Japanese Yen - what’s next for macro? To contact Alf: send him an email at info@palinurocapital.com or contact him on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello) To contact Brent: ping him on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly) or go on http://www.spectramarkets.com/ Brent’s piece on positioning: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-11-sentiment-and-positioning Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-02-august-2024/

This week, Alf and Brent discuss the brutal equity market sell-off: is it due to macro tectonic shifts, a reassessment of political risks or an unwind of crowded trades? The duo digs deep trying to connect the dots, and they also discuss a trading framework around this large volatility events.

Alf and Brent look into various ''Trump trades'' now that the odds of a Trump election and Republican sweep have increased: is there still juice left? And where? Specifically, they also reflect on the use of options as macro traders. Want to see Alf's Cheap Optionality Monitor? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg And take advantage of Brent's course offer! Think Like a Market Professional: www.spectramarkets.com/school - use code JULY24 for $500 off Stuff mentioned during the podcast:   GS piece on AI    https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/gen-ai-too-much-spend-too-little-benefit/report.pdf?ref=wheresyoured.at   Ed Zitron pieces on AI https://www.wheresyoured.at/pop-culture/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/put-up-or-shut-up/   White House statement on Biden (find the spelling error) https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/17/statement-from-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-3/

Alf and Brent discuss the interesting market reaction to the weak US CPI report, and they dig deep into the '''Trump trade'': how would you trade a Trump victory and why? They also talk about the US Dollar and bond markets. Want to chat with Alf on Bloomberg? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) You can find Brent's work on Spectra Markets or ping him on BBG (Brent Donnelly) Transcript of the episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-july-2024/ Elm Toin Coss experiment: https://elmwealth.com/coin-flip/

In this episode, Alf invites Cem Karsan to discuss what's going on in option markets. Cem does a great job at explaining what's the dispersion trade, how big it has become, and how it might unwind wreaking havoc across asset classes. Alf and Cem also discuss macro and how to use options to structure good risk/reward trade ideas. Visit Cem's website: https://www.kaivolatility.com/

A big macro week is behind us: the combination of CPI and PPI releases provide us with solid information on where the disinflation trend stands. Alf and Brent also discuss Powell’s press conference + change in dots and the European political risks. Want to get in touch with Alf or Brent? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg

Alf and Brent discuss the ECB and Bank of Canada cuts, and reflect on the big bond market moves seen recently coupled with carry trade implosions. The discussion focuses around risk management principles to prevent bad left tail outcomes when running carry trades, and how to identify positive expected value trades in macro. Alf is offering a 2-weeks free trial to his institutional research: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg to get in. Brent just launched Spectra School: www.spectramarkets.com/school Transcript of this episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-07-june-2024/ Paper about the real value of gold: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4807895 The Signing of the Boob: https://x.com/donnelly_brent/status/1798055339881107626

Free Trial to Alf's Institutional Research? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg for more info! In this podcast, Alf invites Peter Farac (aka @countdraghula on Twitter) to the show. Peter brings a wealth of experience running money and has specific skills in rates and vol markets. Alf and Peter discuss where the US business cycle actually is, how markets are positioned, and talk shop: how do we actually trade these markets? Follow Peter @countdraghula on X, Free Newsletter: www.macroisdead.com

Want to meet Alf and Brent in person?! Fill in this 30-second survey so we can make this happen: https://www.eSurveysPro.com/Survey.aspx?id=ad4fe049-95b7-40ef-a46b-f1bdc509b256 In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how markets are becoming quickly complacent with realized and implied volatility collapsing across asset classes. The only surprises are still coming from bond markets, while something interesting is brewing in China which could have a meaningful impact for macro going forward. Plus, they discuss the odds of a Trump win and its implications. Useful link: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 https://www.semafor.com/article/05/21/2024/imprisoned-ex-trump-aide-peter-navarro-predicts-ouster-of-fed-chair-jay-powell

(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!) Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue with this low-vol grind higher, how do you trade macro now? Also, China seems to be cooking something big this time. - Contact me (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg to check out the Crowded Trades Indicator - Link to Bill Bishop piece on China:  https://sinocism.com/p/putin-in-china-reactions-to-us-tariffs - Link to the interview with Paul Tudor Jones: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alfonso-peccatiello-72156a6a_paul-tudor-jones-market-wizards-activity-7196033190011060226-jDKp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop