The Mike Hosking Breakfast

The Australian social media ban has started.  Well, sort of. It came in on Monday but begins officially on the 10th of December.  The worrying thing is one of the big proponents of the idea said she believed with all her heart that "we were saving a generation".  That is not true. Saving them from what? Themselves?  Theory vs reality is very powerfully at play in this move. We are dealing with too many intangibles.  Between Monday and this time next week, teens are busy finding new apps that aren't covered by the ban. Influencers are busy directing traffic to these new outlets in order to work around the rules.  The Government is smart to this and has announced a new series of apps that will be covered. So we are in a sort of whack-a-mole stage.  As far as I can work out a lot of pressure has been placed on the tech companies to make sure kids don’t lie.  How literally that works I have no idea.  Like alcohol, you will be asked what age you are.  Whether a tech company can be held liable for dishonesty, I suppose in some way, shape or form, will end up in court.  With face recognition user profiles can be used, I guess. But at some point, a market the size of Australia may end up being more trouble than it's worth.  It's far better to battle, as they do, with places like the EU where privacy and trading laws are constantly under review and fines are handed out on an almost continual basis.  Never forgetting of course, we are now dealing with businesses worth more than many countries and Governments.  However, on the flip side this could of course be the Trojan horse. Australia is at the forefront of a major global movement that is going to somehow shift the nature of technological interaction of an entire generation.  Studies may be launched. They'll look at things like if you were banned before you turned 16, when you got to the golden age did you go nuts? Remember repression is a problematic trait in a lot of social activity.  So we watch with interest. I don’t think it will lead to a lot. It has a touch of virtue signalling about it.  But theory in Australia is now reality. I bet a lot of parents wish them well. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

‘Song Sung Blue’, a story of hope amidst a tragic love story.  Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson star as Mike and Claire Sardina, aka Lightning and Thunder, a duo Neil Diamond tribute act that got major attention in Milwaukee.  The film is based off a documentary about the couple with the same name, that was released in 2008.   Before working together on this project, Jackman and Hudson didn't really know one another – meeting a few times but not in any great detail.  But for a movie like this, where the relationship between the two leads is the basis of the film, that can be a risk.  “On day one, Kate said to me, you know, if we don’t work, this movie doesn’t work,” Jackman told Mike Hosking.  “And she was right, but I had a lot of confidence.”   “I had a strong sense that it was gonna be great, but I didn’t know it was gonna be this great or this easy.”  For Hudson, things clicked into place when the two kissed for the first time.  “It’s like we’ve been kissing each other for years,” she said.  One review described the role as Jackman’s most ambitious yet, a sentiment the actor agreed with.  “I think it combines a lot of different things that I do, but in many ways it was asking things of me that I hadn’t done before.”  Hudson agreed, comparing it to asking a baseball player if they want to play in the major leagues.  “It’s scary, but I want that.”  “I love hard work, and I like work that gives me a little of the, you know, the butterflies.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 4th December, Sir Brian Roche discusses Andrew Coster’s resignation from his new role over the McSkimming scandal.  We've got a new ski deal with China that’s set to bring in high value tourists.  Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson talk Oscar buzz on their new movie ‘Song Sung Blue’, how easy their kiss was, and what Neil Diamond gave to each of them.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A welcome boost to New Zealand's premium meat sector, with strong growth expected this season.  Headwaters Farmers —who produce Lumina Lamb— are forecasting returns of $23.50 per lamb, up 60% on last year.  It also reports successful expansion into the Middle East.  Headwaters and Lumina Chief Executive Steve Brown told Mike Hosking these markets attract premium pricing.  He says they also want to take on producers in the UK market and show them what quality lamb looks like.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new partnership deal in the ski industry aims to tap into the booming Chinese market.  NZSki and Sunac-BonSki have signed on, giving New Zealand direct access to 13.5 million active skiers in China.  NZSki CEO Paul Anderson told Mike Hosking while the New Zealanders and Australians make up the bulk of skiers, they’ve seen an increasing number of Chinese visitors to ski areas – particularly Queenstown.   He says they’re no longer the traditional bus tours of groups that came through from China, but high spending free independent travellers.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A view the Government has to get a handle on debt, with forecasts showing the economy's now finally recovering.  BusinessNZ's Planning Forecast projects the GDP will grow at just under 3% per year to 2027.  But it warns that an ageing population's set to drive superannuation and healthcare costs to unsustainable levels, consuming all income tax revenue by the late 2040s.  Chief Economist John Pask told Mike Hosking we’re not getting back to surplus until 2028/29, and even that’s touch and go.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a view that Government funding for major events is a smart investment.  The first round of events in its $70 million package has been unveiled, including the first ever concert at Christchurch's One NZ Stadium at Te Kaha next May.  Other events include Linkin Park in Auckland and the Ultra Music Festival in Wellington.  Auckland Unlimited Chief Executive Nick Hill told Mike Hosking this funding is designed to make existing events bigger.  For example, he says, the Readers and Writers Festival in Auckland is a fantastic event, but could they use the funding to make it more international?  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Public Service Commissioner says he believes former Police Commissioner Andrew Coster is genuinely sorry, following his resignation as Social Investment Agency Head. Coster's accepted responsibility for shortcomings highlighted in an IPCA report on the handling of complaints against his then Deputy Jevon McSkimming. His final pay will be near $124 thousand. Sir Brian Roche told Mike Hosking Coster's always seemed genuine in all his experiences with him.  He says Coster's very sincere and has real courage, and is confident what he says he believes, is true.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The mail I'm getting got a bit more official yesterday with Fitch suggesting they think the Reserve Bank isn't done.  A lot of people thought the Reserve Bank was done cutting because fill-in Governor Christian Hawkesby basically said as much last week.  On the inference that it was over, swap rates on the wholesale market started going up.  Why should you care? Because if you owe money to a bank a lot of their income to lend comes from the wholesale markets.  If it goes up so does your interest rate, which is what has been happening since last Thursday.  Now this is where we get into subtlety and nuance.  Technically Hawkesby said the bank remains open to further action, so if you lined Hawkesby up in court he could defend himself.  But as always in these matters it is the between the lines stuff, the nod and the wink stuff, that markets read.  And they are reading an end and, as a result, the numbers are rising.  Tied in, if another cut is coming as Fitch suggests, things are further complicated with our dollar, given places like Australia are doing the opposite.  Their Reserve Bank is closer to hiking than cutting. That affects how the world sees our economy and our currency, at 87cents to the Australian dollar and at 43cents to the pound, looks anaemic.  For good measure, Fitch seems downbeat about our recovery. They are calling 2% next year by way of GDP. They were saying 2.7%.  This then brings in the Government. The Government, in election year, would like 2.7% over 2%.  2% they'd be able to milk but 2.7% is home court advantage.  If you want one more thing that kind of backs up the Fitch funk, Black Friday didn’t work.  Spending was down on last year. Personally, I think that’s about it being a crock of you-know-what and it's more clickbait than it is bargains and people are over being ripped off.  But that’s just me.  So anyway, Hawkesby leaves with a trail of questions left behind as he heads to the beach.  If you are one of the so-often quoted ones who are rolling out of one mortgage into another, these are still tricky times to try and get right and you want to hope Fitch has misread it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US Secretary of Defence is facing scrutiny for potentially having committed a war crime.  Pete Hegseth is facing scrutiny over a strike he ordered on a boat in the Caribbean Sea suspected of smuggling drugs.   The Washington Post reported last week that Hegseth authorised a highly unusual second strike to kill all survivors on the boat – reports Hegseth has denied.   US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that Hegseth has previously railed against the Geneva Convention and the legal rules of engagement.  In his book, Arnold says, Hegseth shares an anecdote in which he tells the soldiers in his platoon to ignore such legal advice.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the year nearing its end, Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen joined Mike Hosking for the final Politics Wednesday of 2025.   They discussed Scrutiny Week, Labour’s decision to chase the Māori seats and what’s ahead as we enter an election year.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 3rd of December, Police Commissioner Richard Chambers outlined the Police's new targets in the wake of the McSkimming debacle.  Liam Lawson has officially retained his seat for Racing Bulls next season! Former Ferrari and Williams manager Peter Windsor broke down the decision for us.  And Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell joined Mike for their last Politics Wednesday of the year.   Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand’s relationship with the "Land of Opportunity" is taking the spotlight in Auckland today.  Business, trade, and political leaders are attending the annual US Business Summit.  Christopher Luxon is set to open the summit, shedding light on the Government’s actions to strengthen bilateral ties.  NZUS Council Executive Director Fiona Cooper told Mike Hosking New Zealand is doing great business with the US and the summit is about sharing stories about how to navigate the tariff turbulence.   But at the same time, she says there are tonnes of opportunities in the US, in areas like technology, investment, education, agriculture, and aerospace, and this is about seizing them.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The success story keeps rolling for Kiwi company AF Drinks.  The alcohol-free brand has just secured nationwide distribution in the UK with supermarket giant Morrisons.  It follows on from their US expansion, with them now stocked in over 4000 stores including Target, Walmart, and Sprouts.  Founder Lisa King told Mike Hosking there’s been a huge trend towards alcohol moderation.  She says that a lot of people are still drinking alcohol, but they’re moderating it and choosing to drink less or drink non-alcoholic versions.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A mentoring role for Liam Lawson in the 2026 Formula 1 season.  The New Zealand driver has retained his spot in Racing Bulls alongside 18-year-old debutant Arvid Lindblad.  Lawson had been vying for the vacant seat with demoted Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda, following Isack Hadjar's promotion to the parent team.  Former Williams and Ferrari executive Peter Windsor told Mike Hosking Lawson's the best fit for the requirements.  He says Liam will flourish in a senior role and it’ll bring out the best in him.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a belief support for first-time principals is falling short.  Newstalk ZB analysis has found 970 principals quit in the past three years – one in five within their first year.  Retirements jumped 26% over the same period.  Secondary Principals' Council Chair Kate Gainsford told Mike Hosking other countries have solid systems to prepare principals, but we don't.  She says part of the role teachers can get used to while they're middle and senior leaders, but part can't be learnt until you're actually in the role.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The economic impact of international students is surging.  New Stats NZ data shows education-related travel exports jumped to $4.52 billion in the year to September, up from $3.6 billion the previous year.  Education New Zealand wants to increase that figure to $7.2 billion by 2034.  Chief Executive Amanda Malu told Mike Hosking growth is across all sectors and there’s still room to expand.  She says universities have higher enrolments than they've ever had, schools are growing, and private training has grown 33%.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Confidence from the Police Commissioner that New Zealanders don't see police any differently in the wake of the McSkimming scandal.  Richard Chambers has announced four new targets, which include restoring public trust and confidence to 80%.  It follows the IPCA's recent and scathing report into how serious allegations against former Deputy Commissioner Jevon McSkimming were addressed.   Chambers told Mike Hosking people understand the blame lies with former leaders.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It probably came out on the wrong day to get the coverage it deserved, but one of the last pieces in the economic turnaround told us we are basically there.  Consumer confidence is back, up six points to 98. It needs to be 100 or more for expansion, but it’s the highest figure since June and backs the business confidence, which last week was up a lot.  Business comes first because they see the turnaround on sales. The spending numbers back that up because they are pretty real time and then you get confidence as a follow up, given although we are spending, some may not want to admit it may still feel like they are in a bit of a funk.  But add it all together and the conclusion is inescapable.  You can also add the ASB housing numbers if you want. Confidence in the housing market is at a 15-year high.  Why? Because it's almost perfect – good supply, cheap money, but most importantly we seemed to have crossed the psychological barrier and given ourselves permission to start to feel good again.  The irony is the growth that drives all this might just have been there all along. We get the Q3 GDP number later this month with Infometrics suggesting it is 0.9%.  Add that to the rest of the year and we are well above the growth line. Not that a lot of the commentary has backed that up.  Which is not to say some still do it tough. It's not to say it's the boom times. It's just to say there comes a point where the facts, figures and evidence can no longer be denied.  Here is my next prediction: as a result of all this, 2026 might well be a very good year indeed.  That's based on the idea that economies are about psychologies. Yes, they are about fundamentals but if the fundamentals are in place, then the next thing you look for is mood.  And given the mood has been so repressed, when we decide to take the handbrake off there might just be no stopping us.  As I said last week don't underestimate the Reserve Bank and the finality of their cut. They said this was it, they they've done their job, we are free to go and enjoy our lives. For those waiting and dilly-dallying, that was what they were waiting for.  The next confidence survey will be over 100 and that will be the start of a trend for the year ahead.  Remember where you heard it first. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 2nd of December, the Government is bringing in rates caps in 2029. Local Government Minister Simon Watts and Nelson Mayor Nick Smith give their takes on the proposal. Will there be a coup in Netball NZ? A Special General Meeting has been called this weekend to discuss a vote of no confidence of the leadership. UK comedian and author David Walliams has a new children's book out and he can't wait to catch up with Mike and make of his tight jeans! Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.