The Mike Hosking Breakfast

We have all seen it. I have seen it a good number of times.  The café that was exemplary, sold, the new owner changes the menu, brings in a few kids to serve, and then wonders why six months later they are out of business.  As the hospitality people yet again told their tale of woe, and do not get me wrong, times have been tight and many an outlet has struggled, but as the new numbers got rolled out for the obligatory headline, it is probably time to get a bit honest  about a sector that at times is its own worst enemy.  In the past 12 months, 2,564 hospitality outlets have closed. That’s an increase of 19%. As a stat it's miserable.  But ask yourself this: are all the cafes gone? No.  So is it possible we were over-cafe'd?  Is part of the problem with hospitality the fact anyone can join? You simply write a cheque, put an apron on, and you are in the hospitality game.  Do you know what you are doing? Are you interested in excelling or are you looking for an easy job and an easy job for your family?  Are you providing something new, or better, or different, or just adding to the collection of people who pedal paninis and bowls of cappuccino?  We talk a lot about the two step, or two stage, economy. Normally it's rural vs urban, Auckland vs Queenstown.  But there is another two step story: the people who are good at what they do and those who aren't.  This doesn’t just apply to hospitality. But hospitality is the standout example because it is one of those sectors where anyone can join and you can be anything from exceptional to useless, and a lot of things in-between.  In 1990 Paul Keating, then Australian Treasurer, famously said this is the recession we had to have. Australia had not known a recession and had always been the lucky country.  But part of the argument was a recession cleans out the hopeless. It tidies an economy up.  The strong survive because they hustle and adjust. The weak wither and die and out of the renewal starts something afresh.  A lot of people liquidating only tells you a fraction of the story and the story is supposed to make you feel bad.  It shouldn’t. It's life. If you are good and determined and work hard in hospitality or anywhere else, you'll be fine.  If you are really determined, you will be more than fine. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    The Chinese parade: 8/10  Forget politics. As a “thing”, as a spectacle, as a “can you believe how in time those goose steppers are?”, it was spellbinding.    Helen Clark and John Key and Dan Andrews and Bob Carr: 4/10  On balance, given what it was really about, I think it was a mistake.    Trump's death: 2/10  A sad reminder of just how thick, gullible and worryingly naive some people are. And that’s before you get to the morons who thought Taylor had DM'ed Eden Park as a wedding venue. I am not making it up.    Teachers: 7/10  Big increases in enrolments. Just wait until the unions get hold of them and kill the buzz.    The Tamaki Makaurau by-election: 2/10  Is this the most pitiful display of disinterest in modern democracy? If you thought Port Waikato was bad, this thing looks like it will hit it out of the park. That’s if the park is open.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From the old "cart before the horse" department are two setbacks for ideas we thought were going to work, or perhaps we hoped were going to work, but aren't.  Idea 1: We get big tech to pay for locally produced news.  That’s Google paying NZME for news that ends up on their news feed.  To a degree, deals had been done specifically between some companies, but the Government had the idea that as part of their "supporting the troubled media" plan they could drag big tech to the table to cough up.  It turns out they couldn't, they can't, and they won't.  Australia had the same idea. Then Donald Trump got wind of it, told them that these are American companies and if you tax them, he will whack tariffs on all over the place.  We were waiting in the wings to see how it all went in Australia before we gave it the full crack here.  Neither of us will be cracking anything.  Idea 2: Banning social media for kids. One of those almost universally agreed upon, feel-good ideas that was never going anywhere.  It's a nice thought. It's just not real.  Australia had a crack at that too and, like idea number one, we are sitting, waiting and watching.  Their ban comes in in December. It won't work.  A landmark national study has found its impossible. The age assurance technology trial, which was commissioned by the Government, looked at everything and their conclusion was that no single solution exists.  Can you fiddle and poke and prod? Sure.  But they say, "we found a plethora of approaches that fit use cases in different ways, but we did not find a single ubiquitous solution that would suit all use cases, nor did we find solutions that were guaranteed to be effective in all deployments".  And this is where bandwagons come in. We all like to hate on social media, we all like to protect kids and we all want to be seen to be doing the right thing.  Governments are not devoid of that particular weakness. But the problem with Governments is they shouldn’t promise what they can't deliver, and they were never going to be able to deliver either ideas one, or two.  Not Australia. Not us.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Friday has come so Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson are back with Mike Hosking to Wrap the Week that was.  Mike comments on the effort another ZB host puts into his prep and the effort an MP puts into her appearance.  They also discuss hair styling, supermarket promotions, and the new IKEA opening in Auckland.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another tough week for brick and mortar retail.  Outdoor goods retailer KMD Brands, who owns the likes of Kathmandu and Rip Curl, has announced the closure of 21 stores across its network.  It’s making the move in an effort to turn around struggling sales and find $25 million in cost savings.  Chairman David Kirk told Mike Hosking that it’s a tough environment for all businesses, but discretionary retail is being hit hard.  He says people have to buy food, and if a kitchen appliance breaks you have to replace it, but people don’t have to go out and buy an insulation jacket, or a raincoat, or a wetsuit.  “In difficult times, people hang onto their money.”  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 5th of September, Immigration NZ is cracking down on overstayers as numbers surge – Steve Watson discusses the situation.  All Black Codie Taylor tells us how they're going to beat the Springboks this weekend.  Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson try to stop Mike from being sexist and discuss whether he needs to give up his Smeg rests as they Wrap the Week.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

No surprise from All Blacks hooker Codie Taylor at the competitiveness of the Rugby Championship.  All four countries enter the third round fixtures tomorrow with a one win, one loss record.  Taylor told Mike Hosking it's a continuation of what occurred in 2024, with a loss to Argentina and South Africa both.  He says it’s always close, which is what you want with test footy, but the All Blacks need to be better.  “That’s what we’re striving to be.”  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Immigration New Zealand's working on picking up immigrants who have overstayed their visa, following a surge.   New figures estimate there's 21 thousand overstayers in the country, up from 14 thousand in 2017.   The Government's also cracking down on immigrants who commit serious crimes and could deport them if they've been here under 20 years, instead of the current 10.  Immigration New Zealand Compliance General Manager Steve Watson told Mike Hosking they still pick up on overstayers, even if they're not criminals.  He says they quickly speak to people staying past their visas, and they usually depart quickly and easily.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Defence Minister Judith Collins has had frontline access to the war in Ukraine.  She's returned from the war-torn country, visiting sites impacted by Russia's three and a half year long invasion.   Collins met with Ukraine's Defence Minister while there, alongside speaking with the Foreign Minister, the Office of the President, and Deputy Minister of Defence.  She told Mike Hosking it's a difficult situation.  Collin says the Ukrainians are not giving in, but they do want a ceasefire, and they do worry about the people being slaughtered.  The Defence Minister says she saw appalling behaviour from Russia, with war crime after war crime.   LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Health Minister wants the senior doctors’ union to put patients first and enter binding arbitration.  Simeon Brown has given Health NZ and the union until 4pm today to respond to his urgent request to let a third party decide the terms of the contract.  Health NZ's agreed to participate in an effort to resolve 12 months of collective agreement negotiations.   Brown told Mike Hosking he's doing what he can to find a way forward.  He's trying to persuade both parties to come to the table and agree to the process, which is in the best interest of patients.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The trouble with change, apart from the fact we don’t like it, is it's especially bad if we don't know what it is.  The good news for real estate this week has been the foreign buyers changes for visa holders.  Adding to that, we've had a series of interest rate cuts, with more to come.  But in a place like Auckland what do you buy, and where?  There is no small amount of angst currently over a new unitary plan.  The new plan came out of the Government's idea of having three houses, three stories tall, on a regular section with no real clearance required.  Auckland didn’t want that, so they were, and are, allowed to make up their own.  The answer roughly, at the moment, appears to be high-rise and a lot of it around public transport hubs. Cue the outrage, the upset, the questions, and the heated meetings.  The new plan must be able to accommodate two million houses.  What this does to a real estate market is simple: it hobbles it, especially at a time when none of the decisions are made or are concrete.  What neighbourhood is affected? What part of that neighbourhood?  We looked at a place the other day. Currently it's mixed use with next door being commercial. It could be 27 stories. It's not currently, but it could be.  Another place we looked at had a nice view of the harbour, apart from the house in front that could be multi-story. It isn't currently, but it could be.  You don’t look at a house anymore, you look at the house next door, or behind. What is it? What could it be?  There is little in life to fire us up more than our castle and its environments being meddled with.  Making it worse, specifically, in a place like Auckland is the fact the place has been butchered by clowns. You wouldn’t trust these people to run your bath, far less a city.  So as we sit and wait and debate and get tense and object and fume and worry, how many people who were about to borrow, or spend, or shift, or expand, or build are now second guessing?  And in second guessing, doing nothing? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of New Zealand’s brightest is looking to be a leading figure in the robotics and self-driving car game.  Kiwi Dave Ferguson is one of the minds behind Nuro, a US maker of self-driving car technology – a company that just raised US$203 million in a funding round supported by Uber and Nvidia.  He began his career in self-driving vehicles with Google, working as a principal engineer on the Waymo program before splitting off to begin Nuro.  Self-driving cars have existed in fiction for decades, but real-life examples are a fairly new example, and although many people are sceptical about using them, Ferguson believes that will change.  “I think that the safety benefits that we’re going to get, the improvement in access, the sustainability, the economic benefits, the time back, like, it’s going to be an incredible project,” he told Hosking.  “A pretty incredible part of society long term.”  “Almost everyone I’ve ever known who has been in a Waymo, which is the only fully self-driving vehicle ... everyone that has been in a Waymo in San Francisco absolutely loves it.”  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 4th of September, does Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith have a fix for a system a new report says is under “considerable stress”?  Great news for the teaching sector as we see a 30% rise in training enrolments.  Kiwi robotics genius Dave Ferguson's company Nuro is now worth over $10 billion, and he talks to Mike about wanting to lead the way when it comes to robotaxis.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An SOS call has been answered in Wellington’s hospitality sector.  Local brewers Garage Project have stepped in to save Fortune Favours’ bar and brewery from permanent closure after a decade in operation.  The brewery saw a 45% drop in revenue over the past two years, even after taking home top honours at this year’s Beervana festival.  Garage Project founder Pete Gillespie told Mike Hosking they did such an incredible job with that space, it would be a crime to see everything ripped out.  He says they may have more optimism than they should, but he feels like it's worth doubling down on the bar.   LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There’s a view that large tech companies could be challenged to pay more tax.   A report from tax expert Nick Miller says companies like Google take payments from a New Zealand subsidiary and then pay them to an offshore section of the business.    These are listed as service or licence fees, but Miller says they could be seen as royalties, which come under a withholding tax.   Miller says it's not just New Zealand having this issue.   He says it's a debate Australia is having at the moment and one that New Zealand can't afford to sidestep.  He told Mike Hosking we can learn a lot from what’s happening across the ditch, but if we want to obtain more tax from multinationals operating in New Zealand, our courts may have to reach a view on the issues.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Smooth sailing so far for Ferry Holdings, as a preferred supplier of two new Cook Strait vessels is selected.  Rail Minister Winston Peters has announced a fixed price has been agreed for two 200-metre-long ferries with road and rail decks, and room for 1500 passengers each.  Ferry Holdings Limited Chair Chris Mackenzie says final negotiations have started - and contracts will be signed by the end of the year.  He told Mike Hosking a letter of intent was signed with the shipyard and now technical discussions have begun before contracts can be signed.  The name of the shipyard will be released when the contracts are signed.  Mackenzie told Hosking 60 shipyards were in the mix to begin with, and it had shipyards in four countries, that's now come down to one.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Seymour says he's opposing planning changes in Auckland in his role as local MP, rather than his role as Act Party Leader.  Seymour's opposing a move to allow more intensification near transport corridors.  The Deputy Prime Minister and MP for Epsom told a public meeting that supporters must impress on Housing Minister Chris Bishop that the plan is not necessary.  Seymour told Mike Hosking he's representing the views of his Epsom electorate constituents.  He says his job is to ensure Epsom, Mt Eden, Newmarket, Parnell, and Remuera have their interests advocated for.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a belief the number of people studying to become teachers needs to keep rising to meet demand.  There's been about 3,500 new domestic enrolments to initial teacher training so far this year – up 30% compared with the same time last year.  Massey University Professor of Teacher Education John O'Neill told Mike Hosking it's not a surprise, as numbers typically rise when there's economic downturn.  He says forecasting shows there will be an extra 100 thousand students in school by 2030.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fixing major challenges in the justice system might need to be a team effort from key players across the board.  Concern around mounting stress in the system is highlighted by Chief Justice Dame Helen Winkelmann in her Annual Report.  It identifies key stressors including delays, limited capacity, security challenges, and insufficient funding.   Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith told Mike Hosking speeding up the courts is a classic system challenge.   He says there's a whole lot of different players, like Police and Judges, and everyone tends to blame each other for the situation.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Seymour's call around the Paris Accord merely adds to the list of calls around the Paris Accord.  If we could park the emotion and the bandwagons associated with the obsession around saving the planet, the case for 2050 would no longer add up.  For example, take the countries that never signed up, take the countries like America that are leaving, take the future British Tory Government who will bail, take the world's biggest climate alliance for banks who have suspended their activities and proposed a vote on scrapping its current structure after a whole pile of members bailed.  The Net-Zero Banking Alliance stated their commitment was to align their lending with achieving net zero. It didn’t work.  It didn’t come close.  Since Paris in 2015, banks globally have provided loans of $6.4 trillion USD to oil and gas and $4.3 trillion to green projects.  The founder of Reclaim Finance Lucie Pinson says the reality is the banking alliance never truly challenged the fossil fuel business models.  On facts alone, climate is losing. You can argue forever about why and whether that’s good or not, but if it is fact you are using, then the Seymour call and the growing actions of places like America are actually sensible.  Just how much farce, how many COPs 18, 19, 27, 32, do you want to continue the failure?  How many press releases do you want asking for us to redouble our efforts, knowing it will never happen?  How much funding? How many air miles? How many promises that will never come close to reality do we want to pursue in what is simply a vain hope?  A well-intentioned hope, yes. Laudable, but futile.  Maybe net zero or Paris is a guide and an aspiration. A "let's give it a go and see how close we get" sort of thing. Perhaps with no target the whole thing falls apart.  But like a lot of nonsensical ideas, this one has fast become exposed as a bust.  If good intention and hot air was currency it might be different, but the facts and the truth tell us it isn't. Maybe we are all going to hell in a handcart, a dirty, filthy, climate-induced hand cart. Or maybe we aren't.  But the juggernaut of Paris isn't working and never really did.  Good, clear, decisive decision making would mean we stop the rot, expense and energy sooner rather than later. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.