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The NZ Property Market Podcast
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The NZ Property Market Podcast

Author: CoreLogic NZ

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Brought to you by CoreLogic and produced by Agents TV. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL

234 Episodes
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Double dipped

Double dipped

2024-03-2436:07

This week it's all about the economy (outside of a bit of Sail GP chat of course), after the release of the GDP data for Q4 last year confirmed we're officially back in a recession, the second time in a year for the classic double dip. What does it all mean though and what does the more timely NZAC tell us about how 2024 has started?Kelvin also speaks about the CoreLogic release of the monthly chart pack, where the property investor situation was a core focus. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also paid a visit to the CoreLogic offices recently, as part of their usual fact finding mission to put together their latest Article IV report. Taxes once again were a topic of interest - with housing in the spotlight. The lingering question though is how and when could we really see a fundamental shift in the NZ tax system? Following the leader of the opposition, Chris Hipkins opening the door on capital gains/wealth/land taxes again over the weekend though, perhaps it's sooner than we'd originally thought?Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
Mapping the market

Mapping the market

2024-03-1834:10

The main release last week was the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data - a suburb-level view of median values and change over time. Kelvin offers up the insights from the update and some of the conversations that it sparked with the media.Then from the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, Nick and Kelvin discuss the early signs of first home buyers facing a bit more competition from other buyers - particularly multiple property owners, but will it last?Elsewhere, Kelvin wraps the macro economic data from Stats NZ, namely migration and rental figures, plus there's the REINZ house price index to analyse, including a couple of larger centres where values fell in February.Plus, check out the CoreLogic NZ Youtube page for the latest monthly video.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
On this guest episode Nick speaks with Joanie Rankin, Mobile Mortgage Manager at Westpac. Joanie has been a Mobile Mortgage Manager (MMM) for 3 years but has been in the home lending industry for 6 years.  Joanie has been with Westpac for 9 years now in various customer facing/service roles and has an in-depth knowledge across several fields of banking.  Joanie is very passionate and finds it hugely rewarding to help people into their first homes and loves being a part of their home buying journey.In the podcast Nick and Joanie really hone in on the first home buying experience - how triple M's help navigate the daunting and sometimes complex process and also some of the specific assistance that Westpac offer (including for Māori and Iwi).What are some of the misconceptions people have when wanting to buy their own home and similarly what are some of the myths people hold on to when it comes to dealing direct with the bank? Those are just a couple of questions Joanie answers in a conversation that should be a 'must-listen' for all aspiring first home buyers.For more information about Westpac first home buyer assistance, their MMMs, and how they can help, visit their website westpac.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
Confirmation over the weekend of the reinstatement of interest deductibility for property investors is the key feature for today's podcast. It was a busy Sunday and Monday morning for Kelvin especially, as journos scramble to cover the Government release. Details were as expected but the focus was on the potential implications? What could it mean for rental supply, rental prices and even new build commitments? Nick and Kelvin work through it all to get your week started.Outside of that, there's the fourth annual Women & Property report to cover and the latest RBNZ stats on the terms selected by mortgage borrowers recently. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
This week, to coincide with International Women's Day 2024, Nick speaks to an incredible, award winning leader within the banking and finance industry, Amanda Young. Amanda is an accomplished leader with an impressive 30+ year background in distribution across Personal and Business Banking, and Insurance. Amanda is known for her ability to implement solutions and remove complexity, while improving the performance of large teams. Amanda’s engaging and collaborative approach to problem solving has contributed to her success. Since stepping into the Head of Third Party Distribution role, Amanda advocates for the adviser industry within ASB and is motivated by continuous improvement to make a positive difference for our advisers and their customers.  Listen in to hear about Amanda's incredible experience, leadership lessons (including staying in the Softball 'Strike zone') and her advice for future leaders. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
RBNZ softening

RBNZ softening

2024-03-0439:04

This week the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement and OCR call are in the spotlight. Though most of the market expected the OCR to stay flat, ANZ's surprising recent forecast of two more increases caused a bit of doubt among commentators, and in the end the RBNZ probably softened their stance more than most expected. No one is getting carried away though, with the OCR to remain suitably contractionary for a while yet.Meanwhile our HPI for Feb was released, with growth continuing to moderate and inconsistency across the country continuing to feature.The release did however lead to some headline grabbing stuff from Newshub, after Kelvin politely disagreed with ex-PM John Key's assertion that house prices will double in the next 10-years. Needless to say Nick took the opportunity to stir the pot a bit!Elsewhere Minister Bishop's plans to flood the market with developable land seem laudable but a bit optimistic - certainly conversation starting especially when combined with hopes to drag the house price to income ratio back towards 4.Plenty to dig into for the start of the week - and there'll be more to come later in the week with International Women's Day on the horizon.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
RBNZ DTI reaction

RBNZ DTI reaction

2024-01-2339:02

This week Nick and Kelvin kick off with a discussion of the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which went out in the same week as the REINZ and QV measures. The guys discuss the results from our index, as well as some of the similarities and differences between all the measures, some which were highlighted in a Stuff explainer article. Last week also saw Stats NZ release the latest migration and rent price data – which generally showed further strength (especially for rents), although there are some caveats to note with the latest migration result.Being recorded on Tuesday (rather than usual Monday, due to Wellington Anniversary), this also allowed the guys to comment ‘hot off the press’ on the Reserve Bank’s latest DTI and LVR consultation. In a nutshell, DTIs are still on track for the middle of the year, with LVRs set to be loosened a bit at the same time. Even more detail to come over the next week in written form and our next podcast.There’s also a preview of the upcoming NZ Activity Index, and of course the Q4 inflation figures – a very important release!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
We're back!

We're back!

2024-01-1430:58

We're back for 2024 and it's straight into a look back at data releases so far this year. Firstly the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q4 2023 showed cost inflation is moderating (not declining) and with building consent data for November to also discuss there's a bit of time given to preview the health and prospects for the construction industry.Jobs growth data from Stats NZ is also reviewed - still a key underpinning factor for the housing market, while the latest RBNZ release looks at the terms borrowers chose in November.Additionally December's Buyer Classification data shows first home buyers didn't take a break prior to Christmas picking up a close-to-record 27% of sales over the month.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
Last of the year!

Last of the year!

2023-12-1839:32

In rounding out the year, there's coverage of the Best of the Best report, the upcoming chart pack and the now-live monthly video.Plus, amongst a number of data releases there were a couple of RBNZ papers to discuss. Topics covered today:MigrationRental price growthGDP economic data for Q3REINZ HPISales volumesLoan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) regulationsDebt-to-income (DTI) restrictionsPlus, Nick joined The Weekend Collective Radio Show on Saturday for their regular one our property focus on Newstalk ZB.Have a safe and relaxing summer break, see you back on Monday the 15th of January.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
Call it what you will, this week it's all about money, and it's importance when it comes to the property market. Kicked off, due to Kelvin's article on the 10 things to know about mortgage debt right now, Nick and Kelvin detail how the cost and availability of credit truly make the property world go around. This is true for investors, first home buyers and other owner occupiers moving house as affordability remains squeezed due to high prices and high interest rates. Nick takes the opportunity to delve into the latest Buyer Classification series for each of the main centres and reveals some of the key differences. Kelvin also covers off the latest RBNZ data on how long borrowers are fixing their mortgage rates/payments for.The main thing to look out for this week is the Q3 GDP data, but our annual best of the best report will also be available from Wednesday.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
Today, Nick chats to Rodney King, Mortgage Advisor for Loan Market Agile, based out of Christchurch.Rodney has been in the Banking and Finance industry for a number of years and has exceptional experience in finding the right bank or lender for every type of borrower. In a wide ranging chat, Nick and Rodney cover off the current market dynamics, weighing up the impact of the new Government and the RBNZ's monetary policy decisions. First home buyers are a regular topic of interest but it's other owner occupiers looking to move house that are a source of intrigue for Rodney. Investors too are discussed, especially given recent policy announcements and of course there's plenty of hype for the Christchurch market which continues to look more favourable than many other main centres from an affordability perspective.Contact Rodney at:https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/agile/about-us/rodney-king/P: 0274 555 863 E: rodney.king@loanmarket.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
Two key releases were out last week, with the first being the last Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for the year from the RBNZ. As covered in Kelvin's MPS commentary, it was more about tough talk, not action, with the OCR on hold, but an increase to the forecast peak. "No tolerance for inflation surprises" summarises the RBNZ's take right now, hence the warning shot across the bow. The other important data updated was the CoreLogic HPI release which reaffirmed the recovery in action, including general strength across the main centres. Otherwise a busy week for data included the NZAC (economic activity), business AND consumer confidence and jobs data, as well as dwelling consents figures. Plus, Nick and Kelvin try to close the loop on all the proposed housing related policy from the new Government, including an update on the shortening of the brightline test and supply-side considerations.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
It's the vibe

It's the vibe

2023-11-2644:04

Following the confirmation of the Sixth National Government of NZ Nick and Kelvin delve into the policy agreements (and disagreements) and probable implications.They cover the ruling out of the foreign buyer tax, the (faster) reinstatement of interest cost deductibility, the (likely) shortening of the bright-line test, changes to the tenancy laws and the modification of the RBNZ mandate to focus solely on price stability (inflation).Elsewhere, Kelvin re-summarises the release of the CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and the latest lending data from the RBNZ. And if you're interested in sponsoring Nick's fundraising effort (running 60kms) for Movember then you can do so here.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
The latest Corelogic Pain & Gain report always provides an interesting lens to look through the market with and this quarter is no different. On top of the usual comparisons, Nick and Kelvin take the time to look back a bit further to analyse any differences to previous downturns - spoiler alert, it's quite different this time around.Other topics for discussion this week include the latest migration release from Stats NZ and also rental data. The RBNZ published the latest lending data by DTI, which always creates a bit of chat between the lads, and REINZ October report also creates a bit of content to cover.Elsewhere there's a 'new' more timely view of CPI, though it's not fully comprehensive so Kelvin gives his take on how best to digest it. The November video is also live on Youtube.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
This week it's (mostly) all about first home buyers. There's plenty of reason for that - firstly we released our 6-monthly first home buyer report, revealing what they're buying, where they're buying and how much they're paying for it as well as a little bit of insight into how they're doing it. First home buyers were also the topic of Nick's appearance on the Newstalk ZB Weekend Collective show, with host Franceska Rudkin. Plus, a new report from new financial series provider Aera added another layer of depth to the 'time-to-deposit' affordability measure for first home buyers, by including forecasted figures of income, house prices and interest rates. Though as Nick and Kelvin discuss all forecasts require caveats and this one is no different.As mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally? Tomorrow, Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association.Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
Plenty of data and information to chew through this week, with the CoreLogic House Price Index kicking things off, and it's official - the downturn is over! A few caveats exist of course, but at a nationwide level the lads are calling it.The latest Financial Stability Report was in some ways stock standard, but interesting at the same time. Nick and Kelvin explain why, especially when it comes to the potential introduction of debt-to-income restrictions.From an economic perspective we also received the Labour Market statistics for Q3, including an update to the all-important unemployment rate. Additionally the NZAC data for Q3 is now complete, giving Kelvin the chance to outlay his expectations for the official GDP figures which are still some 6 weeks away. Throw in business confidence data and dwelling consent figures for September and it's an data degustation!Plus of course, as mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally? Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association. Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
Today, we welcome Shona Mookerjee from Insurance Market to talk everything insurance. Often seen as an afterthought and a begrudging purchase, insurance is an important product to support not only homeowners but every person throughout their different life stages.Shona is a passionate, welcoming and incredibly knowledgeable financial advisor and takes Nick through a bit of Insurance 101 and a day in the life of an insurance advisor.  There are a few key topics which Shona speaks about which are worth following up on, they are the 3%, 3%, 3% rule, levelling insurance and redundancy cover.For good measure, and because Shona will also use the recording on her social channels, Nick provides a bit of insight int o CoreLogic's role in the industry and his 'view in two' (minutes), looking ahead for the property market.Shona can be reached across each of the social media platforms Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, email or through the Insurance Market website.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
Following the release of the Consumers Price Index (CPI) for Q3, Nick and Kelvin dig deep into the detail of the inflation data, what all the terms mean, why it matters and what influence it could have over the Reserve Bank's next Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision on November 29. There's also the latest CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and Monthly video which provide a decent line in the sand for where the property market sits as we prepare to welcome in a new Government. This includes commentary on the strength of first home buyers recently and the listings situation.And of course, as mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally? Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association.Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
Aside from a 'quick' breakdown of the All Blacks incredible match and victory over the Irish in the World Cup, it's straight into the result of the General Election where National were the clear winners of the day, though it won't be all plain sailing as we await the counting of special votes to know whether they'll need NZ First or not.Either way, Nick and Kelvin run the rule over the consistent, or not-so-consistent policies between the three parties who may make-up our new Government. The bright-line test, interest deductibility and the foreign buyer tax are the key ones which come to mind.There's plenty of data to cover off too, including the somewhat linked migration and rental index data, as well as the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series  - what's the latest on first home buyer and investor activity?REINZ also released their latest index and count of agent-involved sales figures, then there's a look ahead to the big one for this quarter - the all-important CPI release for Q3.Throw in a quick review of the latest NZ Bankers Association (NZBA) report, and a proper re-cap of the figures in the Cordell Construction Cost Index and you've got a bumper 45 minute episode to tune into, to help with all your conversations ultimately designed to help people build better lives!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
The downturn is done

The downturn is done

2023-10-0942:12

The CoreLogic HPI in September showed values plateau nationwide but importantly the NZ market is not all one market, so focus remains on some of the regional differences beneath the surface. The Reserve Bank took a less aggressive stance in the monetary policy review - not necessarily due to their decision to hold the OCR flat itself (for the fourth decision in a row), but more due to their expectation setting for the next decision, which now looks more likely to remain on hold. There are a few key releases to come before then though, which Kelvin details. The other topic of interest was the construction sector, off the back of consenting figures last week, but also due to Nick delving a bit deeper into the sector. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
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Comments (1)

Andy Murph

turn off your notifications please

Sep 24th
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