The Numbers

It’s hard to find the right adjectives to describe what happened with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government this week following the resignation of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. But we try our best to make sense of what just happened and what could happen next. We also talk about some of the first post-resignation polling numbers that have been published since it all went down.Plus, we have federal byelection results to dissect in Cloverdale–Langley City and provincial results to discuss in Lethbridge-West, as well as new poll out of Manitoba.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the latest federal polling that continues to look rough for Justin Trudeau. Next week’s byelection in the B.C. riding of Cloverdale–Langley City also looks rough for the Liberals, as the Conservatives appear likely to flip the seat that has gone back and forth between the two parties since 2015.We also take a look at the latest premier approval ratings, how things are shaping up for Doug Ford in Ontario and just who is the favourite in next week’s Alberta provincial byelection in Lethbridge-West.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau’s promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances?We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it?On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau?On this episode of The Numbers, we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston’s PCs in doubt, and who has the inside track on forming the official opposition?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row?We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s election and Ontario’s apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from Quebec that continues to show trouble for Premier François Legault.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it.We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz!Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Sask. Party held on in Saskatchewan in what turned out to be a close election, but the polls nevertheless missed the mark by a wide margin. We break down the results. We also take a look at the final count in British Columbia and the snap election call in Nova Scotia, where Tim Houston is hoping to avoid an incumbent slump. Then, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether the Liberals have any good alternatives for leader. Plus, the return of The Quiz!If you aren't already a member of our Patreon and want to listen to this week's mailbag episode, you can join here. Members get a bonus mailbag episode every week and one special episode every month on a topic of members' choosing! Members also get to participate in our lively Discord.This episode is also available on YouTube here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do?We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day.We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.Apologies for the poor audio from Éric during the first half of this episode.As suggested in the podcast, if you’d like to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app, follow the instructions after clicking on this link.Livestreams on SATURDAY and MONDAY can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheWrit/streamsA video of this episode is available on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault.In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics?We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday’s writ drop in New Brunswick.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests Éric against a machine in the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise.We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan.In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests Éric with a Prairie-themed Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)We also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests Éric with a Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario.In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in future elections. Then, Philippe is put to the test with an impromptu Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer your questions, including:Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more!This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next week!Support the podcast on Patreon and get bonus episodes every two weeks, extended mailbag segments every week, ask us questions for the mailbag and join our Discord! Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings.For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for Éric in the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.