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The OPEX Effect

The OPEX Effect
Author: Excess Returns
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The OPEX Effect is a joint podcast from Excess Returns and SpotGamma where we take a deep dive into the world of options and the flows they generate in markets. Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand every month on Options Expiration week as they look at the major developments in the options world and how they impact all of our portfolios.
24 Episodes
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In this month’s OPEX Effect, Brent and Jack break down the September OPEX, which may be the largest ever. With volatility deeply suppressed, a record call skew, and the Fed meeting coinciding with VIX expiration, markets are set up for potential fireworks. The conversation explores how derivatives flows shape equities, why this expiration could be a turning point, and what investors should watch around key levels like 6,500.Topics CoveredRecord zero DTE volumes and their market impactWhy September OPEX may be the largest expiration everThe “vol pop zombie hunter” theme and what it signalsHow option dealer hedging drives equity flowsThe correlation between gamma positioning and volatilityMacro dynamics: rate cuts, liquidity, and potential bubble parallelsWhy call skew is extreme but call prices remain lowHow suppressed implied vol sets up risk of a volatility spikeThe VIX futures curve, ETF flows, and market dislocationsKey levels to watch: 6,500 and beyond for downside riskTimestamps00:00 – Zero DTE dominance and setup into September OPEX02:00 – “Vol Pop Zombie Hunter” theme explained06:00 – How options flows translate into equity moves11:00 – Options expiration cycles and turning points16:00 – Largest expirations and potential market reversals20:00 – Extreme call skew and positioning risks28:00 – Sector positioning and the lack of call demand33:00 – Correlation lows and implications for market breadth37:00 – Realized and implied volatility at historic lows43:00 – VIX futures curve, ETFs, and contango dynamics50:00 – Risks below 6,500 and the role of JP Morgan’s collar53:00 – The destabilizing effect of disappearing zero DTE flows
In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack and Brent dive deep into the current market dynamics, exploring what they call the "Honey Badger" and "Zombie" market phenomena. With options volumes hitting record highs and realized volatility at basement levels, they analyze whether we're heading into a 2017-style low-volatility grind or if a volatility spike is imminent. The discussion covers everything from the latest options positioning data to the impact of zero-DTE trading on market behavior, providing valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.Market Rally Analysis - Comparing the current 4-month rally (25%) to post-COVID gains and why it feels more orderly than expectedThe "Honey Badger" Market - How the market has been buying every dip regardless of negative headlines like tariffs and policy uncertaintyOptions Volume Records - Breaking down the explosive growth in options trading and its impact on underlying stock flowsRealized Volatility at Extremes - Why hitting 6% realized vol signals potential for major volatility expansion aheadThe "Zombie" Market Theory - Drawing parallels to 2017's low-volatility environment and what it means for positioningOptions Positioning Data - Current expiration analysis showing surprisingly average positioning despite market highsTech Calls Opportunity - Why tech sector calls are at their cheapest relative levels in nearly a yearMarket Maker Hedging Flows - How dealer gamma positioning creates "strait jacket" effects on market movementJackson Hole & Rate Cut Expectations - Upcoming catalysts and why the market is pricing in 91% chance of rate cutsNew Tool Launch - Introduction of Flow Patrol, a daily PDF report tracking proprietary buy-side positioning data00:00 - Introduction and market rally discussion01:18 - Honey Badger market concept explanation05:05 - Options volume impact on equity markets10:05 - Hedging flows and market dynamics12:00 - Historical options expiration patterns16:00 - Positive gamma and "Chinese finger trap" markets18:00 - Current expiration positioning analysis24:00 - July predictions review and honey badger emergence33:00 - The zombie market theory and realized volatility extremes43:00 - Friday market action and volatility pricing analysis47:00 - The "spasm" effect and correlation dynamics52:00 - Forward-looking events and zombie market continuation57:00 - Investment recommendations: puts and tech calls59:00 - Bubble detection through options pricing1:04:00 - Flow Patrol tool announcement and wrap-up
Markets are sitting at all-time highs, but under the surface, the options market is flashing signs of extreme positioning. In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma returns to break down the latest options expiration cycle and what it could mean for stocks going forward.We discuss why record call buying, minimal hedging, and low implied volatility are creating a potentially fragile setup — and why upcoming events like CPI, VIX expiration, and tariffs could act as catalysts. Whether you're a long-term investor or a short-term trader, this conversation offers a deeper look at how positioning, dealer flows, and volatility pricing impact market behavior.Topics covered include:Why extreme call skew signals crowdingThe importance of gamma, vanna, and charmHow options flows can drive short-term market movesThe "window of weakness" around OPEX and VIX expirationThe role of tariffs, CPI, and macro catalysts in this setupTactical implications for investors and traders
In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba dive deep into the dynamics shaping the current market regime, with a particular focus on the upcoming June OPEX, dealer positioning, volatility trends, and the surprising resilience of the S&P 500 amid geopolitical stress. They break down how options flows continue to dominate equity price action, why the market remains pinned despite negative news, and what might finally break the calm. With some of the largest options expirations in history on deck, this is a must-watch for anyone following volatility, hedging flows, and macro signals.💡 Topics Covered:Why volatility often contracts before OPEX and expands afterThe significance of the June 2025 OPEX as potentially the largest everDealer gamma, hedging flows, and what they signal about near-term volatilityWhy implied vol is so low despite major geopolitical risk (e.g. Israel-Iran conflict)The JP Morgan collar trade and its influence on the 5,900 level in the S&PHow zero-DTE options impact market stability and risk signalingA potential regime shift: AI stocks, “taco trades,” and declining liquidityWhat vol metrics like VIX, VVIX, and correlation are really sayingThe hidden risk of overconfidence when markets ignore bad newsBreakdown of sector-specific volatility expectations (tech, energy, gold, Bitcoin)
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma break down the forces at play beneath the surface of the market as we head into the May 2025 options expiration (OPEX). While the S&P 500 has rallied hard, a deeper look at positioning, liquidity, volatility, and sentiment reveals a market on a potentially fragile footing. From the continued explosion of zero DTE options to concerning signs from liquidity metrics, this discussion explores how short-term positioning could dictate major moves—and why the post-OPEX landscape may not be as stable as it appears. Plus, yes… we finally explain the "Saul Goodman" reference.🔑 Topics Covered:Why May’s OPEX setup is lopsided with call exposure—and why that’s dangerousThe eerie lack of downside hedging despite a big market rallyHow zero DTE options and mean reversion flows are masking real volatilityThe dangerous illusion of low realized vol vs. wide intraday rangesWhy poor liquidity is a potential precursor for the next volatility eventAnalysis of SPX vs. SPY positioning—and which one signals more riskThe “Saul Goodman” signal: What it means and why it might be a contrarian tellWhat the data says about a potential flip post-OPEXJune expiration on deck: Could it be the next volatility catalyst?
In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack and Brent dive deep into the market turmoil following "Liberation Day" and the implementation of new tariffs. With volatility spiking to levels not seen since the 2020 COVID crash, the hosts analyze how options markets are reacting, why liquidity has evaporated, and what investors should expect in this new higher-volatility regime. The conversation covers everything from VIX behavior to options positioning, and provides critical insights for navigating these turbulent markets.Key Topics Covered:The recent market volatility spike and why this represents a fundamental "regime change"How options market makers are reacting to the tariff announcements and subsequent 90-day pauseWhy liquidity has disappeared from markets and its impact on price movementsThe significance of this month's options expiration and VIX expirationWhy zero-DTE options are NOT the cause of recent volatilityTechnical support and resistance levels based on options positioningGold's recent surge and signs it may be ready for consolidationThe impact of increased correlation across asset classesExpectations for upcoming earnings season and its importance in this environment
In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba take a look behind the scenes of the big market selloff and the options flows driving it. They break down the massive options expiration coming up (the second-largest ever) and its potential impact on market movements.Key topics covered:Understanding the current high-volatility environment and why options volumes are driving increased market swingsAnalysis of the JPMorgan collar trade at the crucial 5565 level and its market implicationsDeep dive into the mysterious "Captain Condor" trader and their impact on market dynamicsDiscussion of multiple major events ahead: VIX expiration, FOMC meeting, quarterly OPEX, and potential tariff deadlineExamination of fixed-strike volatility and why traditional VIX readings might be misleading in the current environment
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba analyze the current state of the options market heading into the February 2024 options expiration. They explore several critical themes, including:Why volatility remains surprisingly low despite significant market-moving eventsThe unusual dynamic where large single-stock moves (like NVIDIA's historic drop) aren't translating into broader market volatilityThe concerning signs in correlation metrics that echo patterns from past market stress periodsThe critical role of NVIDIA's upcoming earnings as a potential catalystWhy the current environment shows signs of stretched positioning that could lead to future volatilityThe shifting dynamics in Tesla options and the broader implications for market sentimentBrent shares his unique insights on why we're seeing an environment where traders are responding to market drops by selling calls rather than buying puts, and what this means for market stability. He also breaks down why the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report on February 26th could be a pivotal event for market direction.Whether you're an options trader or just interested in understanding market dynamics, this discussion provides valuable insights into the forces currently shaping market behavior.
Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand as they analyze the current market landscape and what options flows tell us about potential volatility ahead. The duo dives deep into why the market may be underpricing volatility risk despite a recent 5% drawdown, significant upcoming events, and shifting rate dynamics.Key topics covered:Why the current options market positioning suggests heightened volatility riskAnalysis of January options expiration and its potential market impactDeep dive into Tesla vs NVIDIA options positioning and what it means for both stocksThe evolution of zero DTE options trading and its real market impactHow dealer gamma positioning could amplify market movesBreaking down the correlation between different asset classes in the current environmentWhether you're an options trader, long-term investor, or market enthusiast, this episode provides valuable insights into the mechanics driving today's markets and what might lie ahead. Don't miss this detailed discussion of market structure, options flows, and potential catalysts that could drive significant moves in early 2025.
Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand as they break down December's historic options expiration - the largest OpEx on record. In this deep-dive episode, they explore:Why this December OpEx is uniquely significant with over $1.9 trillion in options value expiringTesla's remarkable 75% surge since November and what the options market signals about its sustainabilityThe fascinating case of MicroStrategy, Bitcoin enthusiasm, and concerning signs of market euphoriaHow major market positioning could impact year-end tradingWhy extremely low volatility and deteriorating market breadth may be warning signsThe stark divide between mega-cap tech performance and the broader market00:00 - Welcome to The OpEx Effect - Biggest Options Expiration Ever00:35 - Why This OpEx Is Different: Record Volumes & Significance02:06 - Understanding Options Market Growth & Impact05:07 - Breaking Down the $1.9 Trillion in Options Value08:42 - Call vs Put Dominance (10:1 Ratio)15:07 - Record Low Volatility & Market Implications19:15 - Tesla's 75% Surge Since November23:30 - MicroStrategy, Bitcoin & Market Sentiment28:45 - Market Breadth Issues & Mega-Cap Divergence35:14 - The "Balloon Pop" Theory of Volatility42:17 - JP Morgan Collar & Market Pinning Effects47:16 - Cost of Portfolio Hedging at Historic Lows50:47 - Warning Signs: Margin Debt & Retail Speculation54:27 - The Problem with MicroStrategy's Premium58:31 - Market Divergence: "Crocodile Jaws"1:01:47 - Final Thoughts & Looking Ahead to January1:04:49 - Closing Remarks & DisclaimerDOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECKhttps://spotgamma.com/opexMORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMAhttps://www.spotgamma.comFOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTERhttps://twitter.com/spotgammaFOLLOW JACK ON TWITTERhttps://twitter.com/practicalquant
In this episode of The OpEx Effect, we dive deep into the fascinating market dynamics following the recent election and explore the remarkable surge in options trading volume. We break down how Tesla's impressive rally is being driven by options flows and explain the mechanics behind gamma squeezes.We explore several key themes, including:How the post-election volatility crush led to a significant market rallyWhy Tesla has become the premier "Trump trade" and what the options flows tell us about its momentumThe current state of meme stocks and the return of familiar faces like Cathie WoodWhy the upcoming NVIDIA earnings could be a major catalyst for the broader marketWhat dealer positioning and options skew tell us about potential year-end movesThroughout our discussion, we emphasize our core thesis that "flows over fundamentals" is increasingly driving market action, especially as options trading volume continues to hit new records. We also touch on our outlook for the crucial December OpEx period and share our thoughts on why the current rally may have more room to run despite stretched valuations in certain names.Join us for an in-depth conversation that combines technical analysis, market structure insights, and practical implications for long-term investors.DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECKhttps://spotgamma.com/opexMORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMAhttps://www.spotgamma.com
In this episode of the OPEX Effect, we take a look behind the scenes at options flows at what is going on in the options market as we head into the election.
We cover:
- The current options landscape leading into October expiration
- How NVIDIA's performance continues to drive broader market trends
- Analysis of volatility patterns and their implications for market movement
- Detailed exploration of potential market reactions to the upcoming U.S. election
- The mechanics behind post-election volatility crush and its effect on stock prices
- Comparisons to previous election cycles and lessons learned
- Discussion of the JP Morgan collar trade and its market influence
- Insights on interpreting options flow data to anticipate market moves
Whether you're an options trader, long-term investor, or simply interested in understanding market forces, this episode provides valuable perspectives on how options expiration and major events like elections can shape market behavior. Brent and Jack break down complex concepts into digestible insights, offering both technical analysis and practical takeaways for navigating the current market environment.
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In this episode, we dive deep into the world of options and their impact on market dynamics. We start with an "Options Dealer Flows 101" primer, explaining key concepts like delta hedging, gamma, charm, and vanna to help viewers understand how options flows can drive stock prices.
We then analyze the current market situation heading into the September 2024 options expiration, one of the biggest of the year. We explore the outsized influence of Nvidia options activity, discuss potential outcomes from the upcoming FOMC meeting, and examine how bond-equity correlations are shifting.
We break down why understanding options flows is crucial even for long-term investors who don't trade options themselves. Using real-world examples, we illustrate how options positioning can create market volatility and reversals around key dates.
Whether you're an options trader or just want to better understand what's moving markets, this episode provides valuable insights into the hidden forces shaping stock prices. Join us as we unpack the complex world of options and their far-reaching effects on the broader market.
SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKET
https://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=Excess
DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK
https://spotgamma.com/opex
MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA
https://www.spotgamma.com
FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER
https://twitter.com/spotgamma
FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER
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In this episode of OPEX Effect, we dive into the recent market volatility and its connection to options flows. We discuss the sudden VIX spike to 65, examining the factors that led to this extreme event, including low liquidity, the unwinding of correlation trades, and the impact of zero-day options. We explore how the market landscape has shifted, with a focus on the transition from inter-equity correlation to a broader bonds versus equities perspective. We also analyze the current options positioning and its implications for future market movements, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases and events like Jackson Hole. Throughout the episode, we emphasize the importance of understanding options flows and market dynamics to make more informed investment decisions in these volatile times.
DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK
https://spotgamma.com/opex
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https://www.spotgamma.com
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In this episode of the OPEX Effect, we explore the current market rally and discuss the concept of "correlation spasms" - unusual movements and relationships between market components. We examine record low volatility, the outsize impact of mega-cap tech stocks, and the recent surge in small-caps. We analyze the prevalence of zero days-to-expiry options trading and its effects on intraday volatility. We consider potential scenarios for how current market imbalances may unwind and highlight key indicators to watch around the upcoming options expiration. Our goal is to provide insight into the complex forces driving markets, helping long-term investors better understand and contextualize daily market moves, even if they don't actively trade based on these shorter-term dynamics.
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In this month's episode of the OPEX Effect, we take a deep dive into the world of options flows and their impact on the markets. We discuss the recent GameStop saga and the role options played in the stock's wild ride. We also explore the concept of volatility suppression, the dispersion between mega-cap tech stocks like NVIDIA and the rest of the market, and the record-breaking streak of low volatility in the S&P 500. Finally, we analyze the extreme bloat in NVIDIA's options complex and what it means for investors.
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https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectjune2024
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In this episode of the OpEx Effect, we discuss the current state of the market as we approach the May options expiration. We analyze the low levels of volatility and put demand, suggesting market participants are not too concerned about potential downside risks. We also examine the impact of key upcoming events, particularly the CPI report and NVIDIA earnings, and how they could influence market direction. Additionally, we explore the relationship between options activity and market sentiment and the importance of understanding these dynamics even for long-term investors.
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https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectmay2024.pdf
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https://www.spotgamma.com
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In this episode of the OPEX Effect podcast, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand discuss the current market turmoil and its potential impact on options flows. They analyze how the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, coupled with rate volatility and the upcoming U.S. elections, is causing a shift in the market environment from a period of volatility suppression to one of increased volatility. The hosts examine various indicators, such as correlation, dispersion, and the VIX, to highlight the unwinding of previous market flows and the potential for a new volatility regime. They also discuss the implications of the VIX expiration occurring before the equity options expiration and how this could impact the market in the coming week.
DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK
https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectapril2024.pdf
MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA
https://www.spotgamma.com
FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER
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The OPEX Effect looks at the impact of options flows on the market from the perspective of longer-term investors. In each episode, we break down what is going on behind the scenes in the options market and how the resulting flows are moving markets.
In this episode, we take a deep dive into the March 2024 options expiration and its potential implications for the market. We discuss dealer positioning into the expiration, whether the call buying in the chip sector is showing signs of exhaustion, the relationship between gold and Bitcoin and forward stock returns, options positioning headed into Nvidia's upcoming major announcement and a lot more.
DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK
https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectmarch2024.pdf
MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA
https://www.spotgamma.com
FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER
https://twitter.com/spotgamma
FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER
https://twitter.com/practicalquant
The OPEX Effect looks at the impact of options flows on the market from the perspective of longer-term investors. In each episode, we break down what is going on behind the scenes in the options market and how the resulting flows are moving markets.
In this episode, we take a deep dive into the February 2024 options expiration and its potential implications for the market. We discuss the extreme level of call buying occurring in the tech space and what it might mean going forward. We also cover volatility, skew, the price of downside protection, tech domination of the S&P 500 and a lot more.
DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK
https://www.validea.com/documents/opexeffectfebruary2024.pdf
MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA
https://www.spotgamma.com
FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER
https://twitter.com/spotgamma
FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER
https://twitter.com/practicalquant