Claim OwnershipThe Other Hand
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© Jim Power & Chris Johns
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Economics and finance demystified.
A recent listener's comment:
"I first heard about ChatGPT on your podcast and immediately started using it. I’m 73 and wrote my first program at 16. Having witnessed all developments in computing down the years I think this is the greatest since www. Your pod is informative in many different areas, politics, economics, society changes, housing crisis etc but at times goes beyond that. This episode tying up all this but also the implications of AI with a knowledgeable guest. ENTHRALLING! Keep it coming."
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297 Episodes
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The border never went away you know. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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A packed podcast:It may be the ultimate social faux pas, but dare we say the latest Revenue annual report contains a wealth of fascinating data?Back taxes owed by SMEs could be - maybe are - a real problemShort-termism: anyone wondering why some companies and countries don't inest enough in themselves need look no further than META's (Facebook) results this week. The shares tanked because the tech giant announced a huge capital spending program (mostly in AI). Financial markets want one thing only: instant gratification. That translates as "show us the cash". Dividends, share buybacks and increases in revenues are the golden trifecta that leads to higher share prices. But investment means spending cash. That's the big no-no. The paradox, of course, is that the only thing that leads to long-term growth in dividends, share buybacks and revenues is investment. Companies and countries that stint on investment don't grow. You couldn't make it up.If (hopefully a big if) another European war is on the way, is being a member of the EU and remaining neutral mutually inconsistent?And all the latest data! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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The Irish government has released its latest assessment of where the economy is heading. It looks like. a forlorn attempt to dampen expectations ahead of another giveaway budget in a few months time. The last before the general election.The golden goose will someday stop laying its eggs. What will future generations think of us, what we did the largesses generously donated by the multinational tax boom? Will we be 'grateful Norwegians', now rich because they saved their windfall taxes (from oil). Or will we resemble the 'morose British' who blew all their windfall oil taxes on what?Is there much more capacity for extra housebuilding than is conventionally thought?Will house prices ever fall to 'affordable' levels, even with extra supply. Or were houses just 'the wrong price' a generation ago?Chris takes the other side of the IMF forecast bets: we are approaching peak short term growth optimism and the IMF is way too pessimistic about the medium term At least Ireland has a fiscal debate grounded in arithmetic. The UK's fiscal conversation is total hokum.And all the latest economic data Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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Wing nuts are in charge? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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Latest opinion polls - and a bit of political crystal ball gazing - points to no one party getting more than 30% of the vote at the upcoming Irish general election.Why is that and what might it mean? Will Ireland 'Go Dutch' (or Belgian...)? Are we in for weeks or even months of prolonged coalition negotiations?The deteriorating geopolitical situation might give voters pause for thought about the sort of politicians they want. As talk of WW3 gets louder, will Ireland want to be led by SF?What is for sure is that SF policies will be subject to forensic scrutiny - unlike last time.Ban Tik Tok? Chinese Communist Party or Elon Musk - who is the better owner of social media companies? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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Initial financial market reaction to big events is often wrong Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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More thoughts on the. Economics of Irish reunification Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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1Professor Edgar Morgenroth has recently published a joint paper with professor John Fitzgerald that takes a deep dive into the potential costs of Irish reunification.We talk to Edgar about his work. We look at lessons from german reunification and the asumptions behind his estimates that it could cost the Irish taxpayer a lot of money. And a lot of sweat and tears.Planning will be essential. Bad outcomes after ill thought out referendums have historical precedent. Brexit for instance. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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Watch the oil price Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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Irish and Eurozone inflation falls again - what is the ECB waiting for?In the US, the super soaraway economy is dashing hopes of quick rate cuts . Perhaps any rate cuts. We need to remind ourselves that this is a good thing. Will the earthquake in Taiwan create another supply shock? We think not but it is worth watching. So are oil prices worth close monitoring.Preparing for war on islands just off Taiwan.Is the EV craze cresting?Why do some US Republicans believe anything that Putin says?We look at the history of civilian casualties during wartime. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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One of the first thing that economists are taught is the Free Trade is a Good Thing. One thing that economists don't speak too much about is that free trade creates both winners and losers. Arguably, not nearly enough attention has been paid to the losers.Whether or free trade is always a net positive depends on many factors. And the alternatives to free trade - the choices made by politicians about things like protectionism - can be even worse. That said, China's accession to the World Trade Organisation was a huge shock and wiped out huge swathes of manufacturing industry and jobs throughout the developed world. Too much too soon seems have been the case. Those left behind communities became the hunting ground for Trump, Brexiteers and populists. They stil are - and there is a distinct possibility of a second China shock coming our way. What will be the results this time?Irish SMEs complain about government inspired costs and regulatory burdens. Are they right to moan? A lot of SMEs are either failing or in danger of going bust.Interest rates: the new normal isn't too far away from where they are now. Discuss. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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Leading journalist Sarah Carey talks to Jim and Chris about Leo Varadkar's departure and Simon Harris' accession.'Harris needs to be much more than a good communicator'. The big test, one of many, will be his choice of cabinet. That will signal whether genuine change is on the way. 'The reshuffle will tell us if Harris is serious'Will any exiting FG TDs be tempted back?Why are so many voices of the centre so scared to speak up?Why do 'progressives' oppose building anything?Harris should ban his party from social media.Mainstream media ( we are looking at you Fintan and Una) is as responsible as Sinn Fein for painting Ireland as a failed state. All of the evidence, with full acknowledgement of all of the problems, shows emphatically that Ireland is the opposite of a dystopian hell hole.Sinn Fein have peaked. The electorate is waking up to the fact that they offer slogan without solutions. The ones to watch are the independents. Maybe some of them should be tempted into government via ministerial appointments - but only if they join the Party.Politicians take all of the blame and none of the credit. It's a cruel and thankless gig. Maybe FG need a spell in opposition? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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Global growth showing signs of acceleration Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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Markets are telling us to stop worrying Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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A packed podcast!For the past year or so we have been noticing weakness in Irish exports, particularly pharmaceuticals and one or two other key areas. Falling exports were a big driver of the Irish 'recession' last year.At least part of this was Covid related and the fall represented payback for the massive boost arising from exports of vaccine and other health related products during the pandemic. It's only one month's data, so shouldn't be over-interpreted, but latest numbers hint at two things. First, normalisation of exports may be close. Second, as the quintessential small open economy, Ireland is a bell-weather for the world economy. Maybe there is a hint of global trade and global growth picking up.Maybe the U.S. won’t cut rates at all this year?Irish inflation continues its fall.Oil prices edging up again. China - the one economy where we cannot talk about a positive growth surprise.interest rates at current levels are maybe the new normal?Macron’e Ukrainian epiphanyJim disappears down the crypto rabbit hole Happy St Patrick’s day! Ireland’s soft power is worth billions. Only idiots begrudge its exercise. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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Everybody in financial markets is starting to ask: is this another bubble, a near quarter century after the dot.com crash? Are those comparisons with 1999/2000 valid or is the AI boom for real? What does AI think of the AI 'bubble'?The UK ends its mild recession but lots of workers are going on the sick - the long term sick. This could be a real problem for growth prospects.The Central Bank of Ireland forecasts a robust irish economy and muses about workers shifting from building offices to constructing houses. If so, that's good news.The people of `Ireland have given two fingers to the political establishment. Patronise the electorate at your peril. Could Sinn Fein be the big loser from the referendum debacle? Another European lurch to the right, this time in Portugal. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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All the latest economic data Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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All the latest economic news. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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On the numbers, the Irish economy is in recession - but is it?Talking to one segment of the Irish diaspora - what do they think of their host country? And their thoughts on Ireland.European inflation comes in at 2.6% vs 2.5% expected. How awful. "The incumbent government is deeply unpopular with younger voters because NIMBY older voters are allowed to block all development" Which country is described in this quote? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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Current opinion polls are pointing towards another coalition government. How long would those coalition negotiations take? Would a prolonged period of no government be a bad thing for business and the economy?Are banks making too much money? If so, what is the right remedy? Tax those profits? Break them up to force competition? Encourage Fintech new entrants?Irish jobs at a record high. A truly remarkable story.2nd anniversary of the Ukraine war. Many are in denial but Russia is on the advance and Cold War 2 is well underway. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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She has no credibility as a journalist. She lied to a public tribunal to favour Denis O'Brien.
Great show, please give us more..
another episode of the anti Boris and orange man bad podcast. total trump derangement syndrome here two years after trump losing election. how about focus for once on bidans current performance? not a chance
To look at the North through some economic numbers is irrelevant. If you told southern voters that the top 5% of the wealthiest would do very well, some SMEs would do slightly better with some drip down to the vast majority do you think the country would vote to rejoin the Union?